New Palin Poll Out, No Word on Trig's "REAL" Birthmother
— Russ from Winterset

I see this morning that the current USA Today/Gallup poll on Sarah Palin is being touted as BIG news by certain pundits, which confirms my long-held belief that 70% of American journalists don't know squat about statistics, and the other 43% are wobbly on reading comprehension.

The poll has the following numbers that caught my eye:

- 72% of Republicans could support her in a run for President.
- 70% of Democrats are "not at all likely" to support her.
- 39% of Americans (67% R, 18% D) said that she is in a strong position to pick the next Republican candidate. The number of "independents" agreeing with this position was 34%.
- 53% of the public says her coverage has been "unfairly negative", while 28% say its been "about right".
- 70% of the respondents say that their feelings about her have not changed because of her resignation.
- 19% of voters would "very likely" vote for her in 2012, while 24% said she was "somewhat likely" to get their vote.
WHAT'S IT ALL MEAN?

Beats the hell out of me. The number that catches my eye is that 43% of the voters surveyed would be either "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote for her in 2012.

Forty-three percent. That's pretty good, considering that she's just been driven from office by frivolous ethics complaints and The Atlantic's ongoing investigation into her vagina. Forty-three percent gets you on the board. Forty-three percent isn't enough to WIN, but since the election is still 40 months away she has plenty of time to shore up those numbers IF she decides to run. Of course, disastrous moves by Team Palin could further erode this number. Like I just said, forty months is a long time.

That's the word we should all keep in mind here, people. IF. According to the poll, she is now perceived as a "kingmaker" by members of both parties. If that's the extent of her influence on the 2012 election, then she isn't exactly going to be relegated to sitting on the back porch shooting at beer cans with a BB gun for the next 3 years or so.

Another number from that poll that makes me think: 70% say that their opinion of her hasn't become more negative since the resignation. That could mean anything, because we don't know if those 30% who have become more negative were former "fanboys" who would still support her candidacy, or if it is Democrats who formerly thought of her as "Caribou Barbie" who now think that she's Evil Incarnate.

My quick summary of the poll: She's still got work to do to rehab her image, but the task is not as difficult as it appeared to be 4 days ago.

Discuss among yourselves....and play nice for God's sake.

Posted by: Russ from Winterset at 09:08 AM | Comments (2)
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Obama's Decision Cycle: Not OODA, But PIDDLE
— Ace

Very good post from Big Lizards, posted at Hot Air.

I believe at first mere ignorance was exactly the problem: The first time the ongoing, fluid situation in Honduras was explained to Obama, I suspect that all he heard was, “Wugga-wugga liberal wigga wagga union supporter woggle boggle ousted by the military roggle doggle coup d’état.” He chose to stitch this muddle together into a narrative that reads, “The liberal, democratically elected President of Honduras was overthrown by a military junta.”

Alas, Obama is probably the most impulsive man ever to sit in the big chair in la Casa Blanca; he appears allergic to debate, discussion, deliberation, contemplation, thinking things through, weighing consequences, examining the pros and cons, hearing from all sides before making a decision — and of course retrospection.

By now, of course, he knows full well what really happened; but it seems he simply cannot bring himself to admit that he misunderstood so egregiously in the first five minutes — which, coincidentally, was when he committed himself to supporting Zelaya, come what may; see our earlier Big Lizards post “Old Shoes and Barackends.”

The military has a term they use for the decision-making process; they call it the OODA loop, for “Observe, Orient, Decide and Act.” But the Obamacle appears to have found a different route to decision making.

He Partially listens to a random aide, acts on his first Impulse, angrily and bitterly Defends whatever snap-judgment action he took, Doubles-down on that first impulse, Laughs off any subsequent, game-changing information… then furiously Echos the pronunciamentos of any allies he might have gathered on the issue, no matter who they are — or whether their own interests align with or are diametrically opposed to America’s.

We can call this the Obamic PIDDLE loop, which generally morphs quite rapidly into an infinite regress.

People said that if I voted for George W. Bush, I'd get a president who was
intellectually incurious, ideologically inflexible, stubbornly unwilling to admit mistakes, recklessly willing to gamble the interests of the nation in order to protect his own ego -- and they were right!

They were just off by eight years.

Posted by: Ace at 09:07 AM | Comments (3)
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Apologies for Being a Dick
— Ace

I've been a real dick lately and I want to apologize for being thin-skinned, whiny, and also for insulting people. I insulted because I felt insulted, but that was largely because I was being thin-skinned.

What got under my skin is this: We conservatives have certain ways of thinking, certain techniques of dismissing or insulting those we don't consider worthy of debate. One of the main ways we do this -- and by "we," I mean me too; I do this a lot -- is to brand a disagreement as occurring between the "elites" (out of touch, condescending, snobbish, and possessed of that very bad mixture of overestimation of brainpower and wisdom and actual underutilization of the same) between what is called variously the "grassroots" or "real people" or just "non-liberals." I don't know what the other side (us) is called, really; but I know what the wrong side is called. Elite, RINO, liberal, etc.

Correction: Elitist, I really mean, though frequently this term gets conflated with "elite" as in "media elites" or "political elites." The meanings often blur together, and I have so blurred them here.

The thing is, this really is a pretty powerful and stinging put-down -- especially if, like me, you are accustomed to tossing that put-down out there yourself. I've come to internalize very bad associations with such words. "Elite" is everything I don't want to be.

It also pretty clearly tracks with "insider, ally" and "outsider, enemy." We don't often say "Hey, that guy is an elite! What a great guy!"

And so I react badly when people either call me that, or imply that, or, sometimes, when I'm being overly sensitive, I merely think they're implying that.

And being off cigarettes, mostly, is not helping.

So I am sorry to everyone I insulted. I can only offer the mitigation (not justification; mitigation) that at various points that "elitist" sort of insult was being directed my way, that I was being lumped in with David Frum and so on. And it really stings.

But I reacted very badly to it.

Also, in an effort to keep my thoughts out of the main posts, which are more prominent and therefore more provocative to people who don't agree, I violated one of my main rules -- never get sucked into an argument in a comment section, especially with your own readers. It's a good rule, and has kept me in good shape for the last five years, and I violated it for what I thought was a good reason, but it turned out that actually it completely backfired.

Everytime I do violate it, I regret having done so, and this is time is no exception.

So, I'm going to sort of retire from the comments again, and do what I used to do -- skim them, make occasional comments, but keep it mostly light, and refrain from arguing too much with people.

Again, sorry. Back to posting for me. No more comment-fights, and no more getting crazy and insulting about it.

Posted by: Ace at 08:41 AM | Comments (4)
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Ten Minutes to 12:34:56 7/8/'9
— Ace

On the east coast, at least. In other time zones, you have more time to arrange your parties and/or prepare for the end of the world.

Silly but I thought I should post it. Otherwise call it an open thread.

Oh, here's another spare part. JohnM. wrote to Gonzo Genealogist Andrew Sullivan last month, knocking him for anti-Christian attitudes and also asking him "BTW, have you found Trig's real parents yet?"

Sullivan replied in his characteristic Rosie O'Donnell depressive uncapitalzed manner:

i do not hate christians in any way; i am one; i do despise people who use religious truths to seize political power and impose their beliefs on others. jesus despised those people too.

and no, we do not know whose child trig palin actually is. when you get some actual evidence, let me know.
andrew

From June 11. And yet a guest-poster recently claimed that Sullivan accepted that Sarah was Trig's mom, but just had other unspecified (less insane) questions about the birth. And Sullivan did not correct a claim made about his beliefs on his own site.

So the most honest man on the internet continues to lie about his most interesting theory.

Posted by: Ace at 07:26 AM | Add Comment
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Obama To Russia: Hey Guys, Thanks For Ending The Cold War
— DrewM

This was from his speech yesterday in Moscow that was kind of overlooked* but some of it is stunning.

And then, within a few short years, the world as it was ceased to be. Now, make no mistake: This change did not come from any one nation. The Cold War reached a conclusion because of the actions of many nations over many years, and because the people of Russia and Eastern Europe stood up and decided that its end would be peaceful.

That's who ended the Cold War peacefully? Really? Not the generations of Americans who stood watch for decades deterring Soviet expansionism? Not dissidents who rotted in gulags for years keeping the flame of liberty alive during the long winter of communist rule?

It certainly wasn't Ronald Reagan who broke the paradigm which said the Soviet rule was cast in stone, contained perhaps but never to be rolled back.

America...just one of many nations, nothing special.

I guess I should be happy that Obama didn't apologize for our efforts during the Cold War, what with all we did to thwart the efforts of the Soviets to spread Communism around the world and all.

This speech, along with the one in Cairo, shows a major flaw in Obama, his willingness to say nice things about people that simply aren't true. Yes, it's polite to say something kind about your hosts but you can not build real relations on lies and flattery. His desire to prop up the hurt feelings of Russians, and before that Muslims, may make them feel good and him popular but it is dangerous when real world events and policies collide with Obama's fantasy version.

Unfortunately, his vision for the future of US-Russia relations is just as muddleheaded. As he said in the speech, more...

Posted by: DrewM at 07:21 AM | Comments (2)
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Obamahitler? Gitmo Detainees Might Be Held Regardless Of Trial Outcome
— DrewM

Dave in Texas sent this along with the note, "So this is what it sounds like when a few million lefty heads asplode".

Yep, pretty much.

Jeh Johnson, the Defense Department's chief lawyer, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that releasing a detainee who has been tried and found not guilty was a policy decision that officials would make based on their estimate of whether the prisoner posed a future threat.

Like the Bush administration, the Obama administration argues that the legal basis for indefinite detention of aliens it considers dangerous is separate from war-crimes prosecutions. Officials say that the laws of war allow indefinite detention to prevent aliens from committing warlike acts in future, while prosecution by military commission aims to punish them for war crimes committed in the past.

Johnson said such prisoners held without trial would receive "some form of periodic review" that could lead to their release.

We'll see if they have the guts to do that should push come to shove.

Right now though, that evil laugh you hear in the background? Dick Cheney.

It seems letting captured terrorists go free, might come back to bite you in the ass.

A former Guantanamo Bay inmate is leading the fight against U.S. Marines in the Helmand province of Afghanistan, a senior U.S. defense official confirmed to FOX News on Tuesday.

Mullah Zakir, also known as Abdullah Ghulam Rasoul, surrendered in Mazar-e-Sharif in Northern Afghanistan in 2001, and was transferred to Gitmo in 2006. He was released in late 2007 to Afghan custody.

Now as the United States is pushing ahead with the massive Operation Khanjar in the southern province of Afghanistan, Zakir is coordinating the Taliban fighters. Some 4,000 U.S. Marines and hundreds of Afghan forces have faced some resistance as they sweep across the province, reclaiming control of districts where Zakir and his comrades were running a shadow government.

Just a reminder not even Bush/Cheney got this right all the time.

Also: Brave, brave Taliban fighters escape...hiding among women and children.

U.S. Marines trapped Taliban fighters in a residential compound and persuaded the insurgents to allow women and children to leave. The troops then moved in — but discovered that the militants had slipped out, dressed in women’s burqa robes.

The insurgents, who may owe their lives to the new U.S. commanderÂ’s emphasis on limiting civilian casualties, were among hundreds of militants who have fled the offensive the Marines launched last week in southern Helmand province.

General McChrystal's counter insurgency strategy may make things harder for the troops on the ground. Calling in an air strike would have solved this problem pretty quickly but killing those women and children would have set the strategic mission back.

The enemy is adapting to the new US strategy, my guess is we'll see the US adapt right back.

Posted by: DrewM at 05:39 AM | Comments (1)
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Overnight Open Thread (genghis)
— Open Blog

Is it safe to turn the t.v. on yet? No?

Well, at least we know that in Reading, OH (presumably a suburb of Cincinnati) a blow has been struck for freedom. The freedom to put a scantily-clad, busty mannequin in front of your BBQ restaurant that is. From the Cincinnati Enquirer:

”READING – BarBe Q, the shapely mannequin outside KT’s Barbeque restaurant, can continue wearing her revealing halter top and short shorts, according to a ruling Monday night by Reading’s Board of Zoning Appeals. On May 13, the city’s Design Review Board agreed to let BarBe Q remain on display outside as long as she wore more modest attire. But the zoning board removed that restriction. The board's vote was 3-2 in favor of KT's Barbecue and owner Kenny Tessel.“I am happy. I am very happy. Now, we can get back to business," Tessel said.”

God bless America (except for those prisses and prudes on the Design Review Board along with the two on the Board of Zoning Appeals who voted to uphold their original decision.) Why canÂ’t they be more like Dave Shultz of Mukilteo, WA who builds radio-controlled tanks? Rather large ones:

”MUKILTEO -- As soon as Dave Shultz unloaded his radio-controlled model tanks at Mukilteo's Lighthouse Park, a crowd of passersby came gawking. These aren't toys, as Shultz is fond of saying. The largest of his set of four military tanks is more the size of a VW Bug.”

At the link there are videos of the tanks cavorting around or something. Apparently they donÂ’t shoot or anything but itÂ’d really hurt if one ran over your toes.
more...

Posted by: Open Blog at 05:51 PM | Comments (1)
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Update on E-Cigarette
— Ace

Realized maybe I should tell those who have attributed my bitchy behavior to quitting smoking -- Yeah, I'm kinda quitting. Though I don't know if I can blame that for shortness of temper and low frustration tolerance. I've always had those. (Edit: Though I remember now-- sometimes I forget to smoke or hit the e-cig for a couple of hours, and I do wind up with some nicotine debt, and get a little snippy-snappy.) more...

Posted by: Ace at 04:08 PM | Comments (3)
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Quote of the Day
— Ace

"I sure hope [Sarah Palin's] family recovers from what she has done to them.

-- Andrew Sullivan, independent roving ad-hoc obstetrician-at-large to Sarah Palin, and unofficial "gonzo geneologist" of Trig Palin

Joe pointed this out.

BTW, I'm not going to quote this, but Sullivan had on a guest blogger recently who gently criticized him for his insane persistence in asserting that Trig is Brisol's baby.

Well, he gently criticized with huge dollops of apologism. He explained that St. Andrew of the Holy Speculum is just too honest to write anything other than what he believes is the truth at this moment.

He also lied and claimed that Sullivan had accepted that Trig was Sarah Palin's son, but that he had other questions, which the guest blogger did not specify.

Andrew Sullivan came back and basically endorsed this dishonest version of events. At least he did not challenge the odd statement that he believed that Trig was Sarah's son.

However, without saying which questions he still thought needed answering, he went on to describe all that he found suspicious in Trig's birth.

So he' is utterly dishonest. If you remember, a while back I reported, accurately, that his editors at The Atlantic had told him to knock it off or cool it down with Trig Trutherism; he stopped blogging for a few days in silent -- blessed silence! -- protest.

Since then he is vague about what it is, exactly, he suspects Sarah Palin is concealing. Of course we know what it is he suspects -- but he is no longer permitted to say so.

He's like many 9/11Truthers who are in positions of some amount of respect or have to answer to the public; they know they can't say "Bush blew up the WTC," so instead they dishonestly resort to "jut asking questions," all of which tend, when answered with the answers they suggest, to imply George Bush blew up the WTC.

But if you ask them if George Bush did this -- they'll say "I don't know" and say "We just need investigations."

And so the supposedly compulsively honest Andrew Sullivan continues to lie to keep his job. His "evidence" -- were it true, which it's not -- "proves" that Sarah Palin faked a pregnancy to cover for her daughter Bristol giving birth to Trig. But he won't state that conclusion. He keeps insisting that "something" dishonest happened here, but he gets very vague about what it might be.

It just so happens that this vague, unspecified dishonest behavior just happens to involve Sarah Palin concealing her pregnancy and Bristol appearing to be pregnant at the same time and Sarah having to rush home to her own obstetrician (hah! What pregnant woman wants her own ob/gyn delivering her baby, as opposed to a stranger! It's incredibly suspicious) in order to help carry out this fraud.

And when you ask, "So, what do you think happened?," he answers, "I don't know. Needs more investigating, though!"

Just like WTC 7. Not saying it was brought down by explosive charges, but then... we don't know until we look, huh?

Anyway, just a summary of what he's up to.

I bring this up because Joe slipped me that awesome quote in the comments, and also because yesterday Andrew Sullivan, independent roving ad-hoc obstetrician-at-large for Sarah Palin, called me a "nutjob" or something.

And a quasi-fascist, too. I've been upgraded from full fascist, apparently, because I was arguing with you guys about Sarah Palin's chances. Thus my promotion.

Speaking of The Atlantic... They've been selling out "salons" to lobbyists and corporate sponsors, as the WaPo got caught doing, for six years. Only now is it coming out that this is a longstanding practice.

One More Thing: Sullivan's big thing lately is to grouse that no one in the media is doing their job and asking hard questions of those in power.

And by that he means -- I crap you not -- no one is asking Palin about the birth of Trig.

Every few days he writes something like, "Why is no one in the media willing to do their jobs and ask the difficult questions?"

But here's the thing: Sullivan himself is no longer allowed to "ask the difficult questions." He can only do so evasively and by implication (meanwhile attempting dishonestly to comply with his corporate masters and pretend he's not asking it).

So he really has the answer to his own question. Why doesn't anyone in the media ask this question? Same reason you don't, Chief: Because it's insane and would bring discredit upon whatever media organizatiton asked it.

But he's so whiny and self-pitying, and thinks he's got some real fans who care out about him in actual journalism. So he thinks if he whines about it enough he can guilt someone into asking the lunatic questions he himself doesn't have the guts to ask.

Compulsively honest Andrew. He wants answers to the question that's so vitally important he's too chickenshit to ask it himself.

Let me show off and do what Andrew Sullivan is not allowed to do:

Is Trig really Sarah Palin's son?

Let me do it again, just to rub it in:

Is Trig really Sarah Palin's son?

And again: Questions I can ask that the chickenshit Sullivan cannot:

Is Trig really Sarah Palin's son?

The answers, by the way, are "Yes," "Yes," and "Still yes."

Ace of Spades HQ

Asking the vital questions of national importance that Andrew Sullivan is too much of a coward to.

Posted by: Ace at 01:58 PM | Comments (28)
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14 Taliban Militants Suffer Sudden Onset of Entropy from Oppressive Summer Heat, Drone-Launched Love from Above, but Mostly Drone-Launched Love from Above
— Dave in Texas

South Waziristan is like a magnet to these things.

Officials say the attack took place Tuesday in South Waziristan, along the country's border with Afghanistan.

The area is a stronghold of Baitullah Mehsud, a top Taliban leader and al-Qaida ally wanted by both Pakistan and the United States.

"Stronghold" is kind of a funny word to use to describe a place where taking a nap is more than a bit of a personal risk.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 01:04 PM | Comments (1)
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