After reviewing the new polling, money, and generic ballot data, I am in agreement with the Huffington Post. We aren't looking at 47 seats, I was wrong. more...

Posted by: CAC at 07:11 AM | Comments (127)
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You know, if you're thinking of going somewhere warm this summer, you might want to consider someplace other than Mexico.

Seems their narco-terrorists are taking notes from the jihadis.

A Mexican police commander investigating the reported shooting of an American tourist on a border lake plagued by pirates has been decapitated and his head was found in a suitcase, a Texas sheriff says.

The death of Rolando Flores, commander of state investigators in Ciudad Miguel Aleman, was a message from gangsters for investigators to "stay out of their territory," Texas Gov. Rick Perry said. Flores was part of a group investigating the reported shooting of David Hartley on Falcon Lake.

"I think their attempt is to intimidate law enforcement, no matter who they are or where they are," Perry told The Associated Press.

Flores' decapitated head was found Tuesday in a suitcase outside a Mexican Army base, Zapata County Sheriff Sigifredo Gonzalez told the AP.

Cartels have used beheadings in the past to terrorize the public and send messages to Mexican law enforcement. U.S. officials have said threats from drug gangs who control the area around Falcon Lake have hampered the search for Hartley, though divers have been in the lake searching this week. Hartley was reportedly shot Sept. 30 while touring the lake with his wife on Jet Skis.

But no, we have no need to build the fence or up security along the border.
None whatsoever.

Posted by: DrewM at 06:46 AM | Comments (131)
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(Part of an Ace of Spades HQ campaign to highlight races that can be won but need your help)

Matt Doheny NY-23

The Race-

Our old friend, NY-23. Doug Hoffman and Dede Scozzafava (with a big assist from Sarah Palin) made this district one most famous thanks to the 2009 special election to replace longtime Republican Congressman John McHugh, (who was appointed Secretary of the Army by President Obama).

The intra-party warfare enabled Democrat Bill Owens to take the narrowly take the seat in a fractured field (Owens 48.3%, Hoffman 46% and Scozzafava 5.7%)

During the special election campaign the district was often described as having elected a Republican to the House since the 19th Century. That was always stretching the point given the amount of redistricting that occurred over the years.

Cook says itÂ’s an R+1 but it elected McHugh for a number of years and as evidenced by his appointment to the Obama administration, he wasnÂ’t exactly a hard core conservative. The district did go to Obama in Â’08 narrowly but had supported Bush in 04.

This year one time conservative star Hoffman ran for the GOP nomination but was defeated by businessman Matt Doheny. Doheny is running as an outsider with real world business experience (law and finance) on a traditional lower taxes, lower spending, "Repeal and replace the health care bill..." and strong national defense. The latter may be more important in this race than many in NY as the district is the location of Fort Drum, home of the 10th Mountain Division.

The Candidate (from his website)-

(Doheny) is not a career politician, but someone whose experience and track record have centered on his career path in the business world. At a time when the federal government is running historic deficits and the nation is coming out of the worst recession since the depression, people in the North County, Adirondack Region and Central New York need bold new ideas. Matt has the business and finance experience needed to help turn around our nationÂ’s economy and bring much-needed jobs to our region.

Â… After practicing law for a few years at several firms including Hancock & Estabrook in Syracuse, NY, Matt decided the law wasnÂ’t for him and went into the business world. It is in this world during the last ten years that Matt has produced a track record of great success helping large troubled companies reorganize, recover from bankruptcy, save jobs and prosper.

He worked as a Managing Director for Trouble Assets at Deutsche Bank from 2000 through 2008. Here, Matt helped purchase debt of troubled companies like Air Canada, Pacific Gas & Electric and Adelphia and assisted them in restructuring so they could once again operate independently.
In 2008, Matt left Deutsche Bank to join Fintech Advisory, where he currently works as a portfolio manager.

ItÂ’s this type of business experience that gives Matt firsthand knowledge of what it takes to bring a large company back from the brink of financial ruin, which is a skill that will be highly useful in dealing with the economic crises our country is facing today.

Why Doheny Can Win-

Originally Hoffman was going to mount a 3rd party challenge on the Conservative Party line but he has subsequently dropped that bid and endorsed Doheny. (On the downside, HoffmanÂ’s name will still appear on the ballot. Even after she dropped her bid, Scozzafava was still able to pick up 5% of the vote and likely cost Hoffman the seat last year)

Owens originally ran on opposition to the Democrats health care proposal but within minutes of taking his seat, he backtracked and supported the Pelosi bill.

The NRCC released in an internal poll in the wake of the Hoffman withdrawal showing Doheny up by 14 points.

While internal party polls are always suspect, the DCCC is clearly concerned that with Hoffman out of the race, Owens is in trouble and they have increased their ad buys in the district.

Cook has the race a toss-up at this point.

How nervous are the Democrats about this race? Owens is now running ads touting how much he voted with Nancy Pelosi John Boehner. more...

Posted by: DrewM at 06:02 AM | Comments (35)
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Hard to top Tuesday night but we'll see what we can do.

Remember™ via Slublog (and Geoff on this one).

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 04:23 AM | Comments (140)
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If you laughed at the "pull my finger" jape I am so fond of, you probably went into a very risk-averse mood. Hilarity, as it turns out, does not promote risky behavior. Gloom, despondency, existential despair, and DOOM promote risky behavior.

That being said...let's move on to the doom-filled portion of our program and break out our gallon jugs of Val-U-Rite Breakfast Blend.

If This Were the Private Sector, Those Congressional Staffers Would End Up in Jail. But this is the public sector, where perfidy is not only tolerated; it is rewarded! more...

Posted by: Monty at 03:23 AM | Comments (70)
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It is the bottom falling out of the Democratic electorate.

In a universe where this race even makes it on the Real Clear Politics map as anything less than a Safe seat... more...

Posted by: CAC at 11:06 PM | Comments (85)
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33 men underground for 69 days.

Video stream here.

The capsule is being sent down now with a medic in it.

I'm not claustrophobic but watching this is giving me the creeps. It's dark, narrow (like 28 inches wide) and the cage will spin and deflect off center since it's not a straight shot.

It's about a 30 minute trip down over a half a mile underground. Once he's down there he will evaluate the miners and decide the order in which they will come up.

more...

Posted by: DrewM at 06:27 PM | Comments (302)
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that this is like bacon for your eyeballs: more...

Posted by: CAC at 06:06 PM | Comments (122)
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"Now, where did your nickname 'Turtle' come from?"

"No."

"No?"

"Jim DeMint started the recession..."

more...

Posted by: Ace at 05:42 PM | Comments (81)
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It's the boringest night of the week - no point in wasting good ONT material on it.

So how bout yet another bluegrass cover?

This time it's the Cleverly Trio doing their version of the Bangles' "Walk Like an Eqyptian". And yes I noticed that the Trio actually has five members. Well let's just say that bluegrass tradition has always placed more emphasis on playing than say counting.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 05:38 PM | Comments (480)
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