The list.

Posted by: Ace at 10:46 PM | Comments (72)
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Based on the calls of TX-23 and CO-3 for Canseco and Tipton, respectively, the NY Times coverage map currently shows us with 233 seats locked in. This is a total gain so far of +53. That puts us 15 seats over the "magic number" of 218. The Dems were sitting at 255 before the election, and currently they're at 174 seats locked in.

The tossups include the following districts where the (R) is in the lead:

MN-8 (Cravaack over Oberstar) yes, I just said that. You're not on drugs.
UT-2, where Philpott currently leads by 33.
ID-1, where Labrador is leading by 8k.
WA-2, where Koster is leading by less than 1% with about 64% in.
NV-3, with Heck up by 1%.
CA-3, with Lungren up by 6%.
CA-11, with Harmer up.
CA-20, with Vidak up 0.5% with 50% reporting.
CA-45, where Mack (Mary Bono-Mack) is up early in the tally.
CA-44, with Calvert up early in the tally.
TX-27, with Farenthold up by 800 votes.

That's 11 districts, and it's not exactly being optimistic to think that we'll hold half of them. Call it 6, which puts us at 239, and +64. That's a 64 seat pickup, in a year that found the Republican Party torn between conflicts involving "insiders" and "tea partiers". Can you imagine how we'll do when these two groups learn to play nice and work TOGETHER?

And the momentum? Pretty much one sided. Other than Cao in LA, can you think of any other cases where a Dem flipped a seat blue from red? Any victory parties the Dems had tonight were victories of survival. All the initiative lies with the Republican party.

Think about this tomorrow when the pundits tell you that any Republican wave of less than 70 seats was "disappointing". Yeah, disappointing. Like that disappointing minor victory we won over the British Army back in 1815. Andy Jackson might have whipped the greatest army in the world with a bunch of backwoods hicks, but his failure to capture both Parliament AND the British Monarchy made it a disappointing failure in the long run. Right?

NOTE: Corrected to reflect the fact that my 2am math is somewhat shaky.

Posted by: Russ from Winterset at 10:38 PM | Comments (60)
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[Covering CO, WY, and UT]

UPDATE: 12:50 - Counting in the Buck race seems to have slowed to a crawl, so I'm going to sign off. Sorry for the late start. Have a great night, everybody.

UPDATE: 12:39 - I see NBC projects 243 GOP seats in the House - a gain of 65.

UPDATE: 12:34 - Ahhh - no joy in Utah. 100% of precincts in, and Matheson beats Philpot by 5%.

UPDATE: 12:28 - Several commenters have been prodding me to say something about the Philpot (R) - Matheson (D) race in Utah's 2nd District. I ignored them because I trusted RCP, who had said that race "Leaned Democrat." But Philpott leads by 1 point with 65% of precincts reporting!

UPDATE: 12:24 - That was fast. Buck's lead drops to 5900.

UPDATE: 12:22 - Buck leads by 9500 w/70% of precincts reporting. News teams say that future votes come from both rural and metro precincts, so it could still swing either way.

UPDATE: 12:09 - They finally called it for Tipton (R)! This means that RCP called it exactly right for all of the races in UT, WY, and CO. No surprises, except for the "toss-ups." According to Google the GOP has 232 seats in the House, a gain of 56.

UPDATE: 11:39 - Buck opens up lead to 10,000! If Buck ends up ahead despite the Boulder shenanigans, and if he can win by more than 0.5%, then we could get unfritzed. (...and Tipton maintains lead with 79% of precincts reporting)

more...

Posted by: Geoff at 10:31 PM | Comments (237)
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From Hot Air Headlines.

Better than another cup of coffee at 2am.

Posted by: DrewM at 10:11 PM | Comments (51)
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UPDATE: ID, OR and WA polls now closed. AK polls open for two more hours.

UPDATE II: Washington Senate Race

At 9:09 PM (PST) Murray (D) 50.59% vs Rossi (R) 49.41%

UPDATE III: Links to state results added below the fold.

UPDATE IV: Polls now closed in Alaska

UPDATE V: What Ace just said below (sorry I keep vanishing the thread...trying to add additional links and updates...and royally fucking up at it)

UPDATE VI:

Latest AK Senate results, fresh from the Baked Alaska oven:

McAdams, Scott T. DEM 31827 24.81%
Miller, Joe REP 44502 34.69%
Write-in Votes 50655 39.49%

And the WA Senate race tightens ever so slightly:

Murray (D) 712,359 50.60%
Rossi (R) 695,381 49.40%

Not to worry though. Still plenty of time for King County election workers to find some extra Murray ballots behind filing cabinets, in desk drawers and up their asses in case Rossi should actually pull ahead.

Some additional media links below...will get updates on the races still in play very soon.

Send tips, updates, random musings etc. to xgenghisx (at) gmail (dot) com

Updates, links etc. below the fold. Additional links and info. to be added throughout the evening.

Special greetings to the Sub-Moron Meetup in Fremont tonight. What's the final headcount? Pics/video or it didn't happen. That includes what you plan to do to the Lenin statue later on this evening. more...

Posted by: Genghis at 10:10 PM | Comments (108)
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Sassy!

Posted by: Ace at 09:36 PM | Comments (68)
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"Write in" is winning with 39%, that is-- but I wouldn't count on too many of those votes not being for Murky.

Then again, these are the first numbers up. 28% reporting.

By the way, Dino Rossi just barely trails Murray by 1% or so, with 61% in.

Posted by: Ace at 09:20 PM | Comments (208)
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She's behind by around 3% with 62% in.

Corrected: I'm told I got this wrong, we already had AZ-2 and AZ-3, it's AZ 1 and AZ 5 that are the pickups.

Posted by: Ace at 09:05 PM | Comments (157)
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Email any tips/updates about these races to me at maetenloch at that google thing.

CALIFORNIA

[UPDATED 10:00PM PST]

Races: (Incumbent underlined)

Governor:

Whitman (R) vs. Brown (D): [already called for Brown]
45% vs 49% with 23% of precincts reporting

Senate:

Fiorina (R) vs. Boxer (D): [already called for Boxer]
47% vs 47% with 23% of precincts reporting

Interesting House Races:

CA-11: Harmer (R) vs. McNerney (D) [Harmer expect to beat McNerney]
49% vs 46% with 32% of precincts reporting

CA-20: Vidak (R) vs. Costa (D) [longshot, but farmers are angry about central valley water]
56% vs 44% with 19% of precincts reporting

CA-47: Tran (R) vs. Sanchez (D)

per Van Tran's gatekeeper at HQ, very early returns show tie at 48/48. However, polls closed less than 45 minutes ago so its very fluid. The campaign remains very optimistic and has garnered much support within much of the district which is changing in demographics away from the incumbent, Sanchez.

Propositions:

PROP 19 - Legalize marijuana
44% Yes - 56% No

Posted by: Maetenloch at 09:00 PM | Comments (476)
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That's what I'm hearing! On Twitter, but still.

Also: Nate Silver now says the likely damage is 62-72 House seats -- so 70+ is still on the table, yo!

Also: Sean Duffy won.

Also: Buck is ahead by 3 in CO and Fox News is getting ready to call it.

Also: We won WA-3.

Also: Russ thinks we can win IA-1... we're behind by 2000.

Posted by: Ace at 08:59 PM | Comments (39)
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