November 02, 2010
— Ace Gee, I guess this is what happens when you refuse to carry forward a judgment you already won.
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10:41 AM
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— Ace Well, duh.
If this election is a referendum on Barack Obama then o boy are Democrats in trouble. In our final round of 18 polls we found the President with a positive approval rating among likely voters in only 1 state- Connecticut. Even there only 46% of voters expressed support for the job he's doing. He's slightly under water in some of the bluest states out there- California, Washington, even his home state of Illinois.And the bad news for Democratic candidates across the country is that we found very few voters disapproving of Obama who were willing to then turn around and vote for Democratic candidates. Joe Manchin was an exception but for the most part no Democrats were getting more than 5-10% of the vote from people who disapproved of Obama. There's a lot of good Democrats tonight- both incumbents and challengers- who are going to lose and it won't be because of anything they did wrong. It's just hard to overcome an incumbent President of your party being so unpopular with the people most motivated to vote.
Update: According to MSNBC, poll workers are "shocked" at the high turnout.
And I don't think they're turning out for Sestak....!
Democrats Did Everything Wrong: A blogger objects to PPP's claim that "good Democrats" will lose who didn't do anything wrong.
Did those "good Democrats" vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker or Harry Reid for Majority Leader? Yes, they did.Did those "good Democrats" vote for the stimulus bill? Yes, they did.
Did those "good Democrats" vote for Obamacare? Yes, they did.
Did those "good Democrats" go along with the reconciliation farce to force the Obamacare monstrosity through? Yes, they did.
Did they support the "Lousiana Purchase" and the "Cornhusker kickback"? Yes, they did.
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10:36 AM
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— Ace Sorry for the double-post, internet is a little spotty and this sort of thing happens as the signal winds up going through twice. Or something. I don't know.
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10:36 AM
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— Dave in Texas Givin ya a little info before the party gets started this afternoon.
joltin' j's: 65
Bruin22: 64
MFGSaintsFan: 64
iowa amy: 64
Bush League: 63
Quarreyman: 63
Dallas Cowboys: 1
Notables:
Ben:57
DrewM: 54
CDR M: 53
DiT: 48
Russ from Winterset: 49
I put myself ahead of Russ, even though he's got one more win than me, because I'm spiteful.
Posted by: Dave in Texas at
10:24 AM
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— Geoff It's an all-too-recent memory...the bloodbath among Republican ranks in 2006...only 4 years ago. It was a perfect storm for the Dems: a series of Republican scandals, completely incompetent campaigns run by several GOP candidates, and of course the shadow George W. Bush cast upon the party like a cloud of radioactive waste.
Ace had manfully tried to keep enthusiasm and hopes up prior to the election, arguing against poll results, pundit assessments, and the jeering of the sinistrosphere. We the faithful wanted to believe, we tried to believe, we almost did believe...which made the election results on November 7, 2006 all the more devastating.
We. Were. Crushed. The Democrats routed the Republicans, gained overwhelming majorities in the House and Senate, and proceeded to wield their might in a fashion that appalled anyone with a sense of fiscal responsibility and individual freedom. We were completely demoralized: trolls defiled our listless threads, the guys didn't have shirts, and hobos roamed free without fear.
But on November 9th, Ace wrote a post. It was a throwaway post - just a little humorous aside. Here it is in its entirety.
Hutch1200:That was it. Sure to draw a few funny comments, but no big deal. Yet in a time when a 100-comment thread was a decent size, that thread drew over 1000. lauraw took on the task of selecting the best in her New Age Contest Results post. I urge you to visit both posts, where you'll find such gems as:I just bought a huge solar panel. Casey/Pisslousy/Kennedy promised 2 years of sunshine. Stock up on these now people, no clouds for two years. All that sunshine coming out their asses could lead to a drought though. Wait, Bushs' global warming will bring water, Donks bring sunshine. What a beautiful thing, this revenge voting shit.Share your own hopes for this age of miracles and wonders, which started today at 9AM.
-Thanks to Democrats, I am now world Jenga champion!The original thread was very funny, but more importantly, it was cathartic. It restored our spirit, our focus, and our desire to kick Democratic fannies out of the Legislative Branch. And now our day is here.
Posted by: Michael J. Fox
So, resilient in our defeat, let us be meticulous in our victory. Do not let a single vote go uncast, nor a single impropriety go unchallenged. It is not, as in the Democrats case, a matter of power and feelgood mindthoughts - it is a matter of economic and geopolitical survival.
...and an opportunity for another great post-election thread.
Posted by: Geoff at
09:59 AM
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— Ace Her interview subjects/victims are hilariously unaware, as they spit hatred while denouncing h8rs, and, even funnier, knock Tea Partiers for being old and white while themselves, being quite old and very white.
Oh and they really like pot.
Update: Salmon Rushdie: I Talked to Jon "No Enemies" Stewart About His Guest's Death Sentence On Me And He Didn't Give A Crap. Now that's irony.
more...
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09:52 AM
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— Purple Avenger At my polling place I noticed one egregious downticket mistake the FL Republicans made in the District 88 FL legislature race. In a year like this, they allowed a Democrat to go unchallenged. Mark Pafford was the only name on my ballot. Some name with an R next to it should have been there, if only to gauge how low the wave was going to wash downticket . Anyone would have been acceptable, even someone with defects that wouldn't hold up under national scrutiny...as long as they weren't some Alvin Greene grade complete embarrassment that is.
A pickup on seat like this COULD HAVE become "found money" in a district like this if Dem turnout was below normal. The candidate wouldn't even need to campaign per se, Pafford didn't do much, just spent a lot of time polishing knobs to get a slew of the usual endorsement you'd expect a liberal to garner.
If you've noticed similar stuff on your ballot, post it in the comments so we can generate a 1-stop shopping reference for Republican strategists on how to not screw the pooch.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at
09:26 AM
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— Ace Yeah, I guess cat's out of the bag for Rocky's political leanings.
Posted by: Ace at
09:23 AM
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Enthusiasm Gap Strikes in VA-8;
Could Brookline Be About To Elect Sean Bielat?
— Ace Update: Dick Morris says we're heading for an "unbelievable landslide," based on reports from the ground all over the country.
For a week I've gotten some downer emails from a VA-8 voter calling Patrick Murray's bid to unseat Jim Moran. Can't happen. Impossible. The district is too bright blue, filled, as it is, with people who work directly for the federal government and/or the permanent bureaucratic political para-government of fundraisers, consultants, and issue-advocacy types.
Today he voted... and reports that Democrats aren't showing up.
I've been voting here in Arlington for 15 years, alternating between morning and afternoon based on my gut feelings about turnout.
I voted at 8 am this morning in South Arlington, bluest part of a blue county... I've *never* seen a polling place emptier.
I still don't see Murray having a serious chance-- this is Arlington, FFS-- but he *may* have a chance in Hell, depending on turnout...
Fingers crossed!
And in "bluer than blue" Brookline, MA...
For 25 years I’ve lived in Brookline, where Republicans admit they’re Republicans at their own risk. Yet I haven’t seen so many lawn signs for a Republican since a few courageous matrons put a “Weld for Governor” placard on their lawn in 1990 and paid the price: social suicide. They were promptly shunned at Whole Foods. Their poor children sat alone in the cafeteria.It says something huge about Barney Frank’s fall from grace that a few brave Brookline-ites are ready, again, to risk their neighbors’ wrath.
HereÂ’s what IÂ’m seeing: a few dozen small and discreet Bielat signs, mostly in South Brookline on the West Roxbury line, where thereÂ’s more diversity. That is, you can actually question Al GoreÂ’s prediction that the Cape will be underwater by 2025 and not be jettisoned from The Great Books Club.
Don't worry if that doesn't seem big enough -- MA-4 includes more than Brookline, and in Newton, for example, there are more Bielat signs than Frank signs.
Simple proposition: We turn out, they don't -- it doesn't matter what the partisan advantage is in any district. If they don't bother to vote, and we vote like the Republican depends on it, we win.
Gallup: 19 Point Enthusiasm Gap, The Biggest Advantage Since They've Measured: At Hot Air:
The record level of overall enthusiasm is primarily the result of Republicans’ heightened excitement — 63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats’ expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party’s supporters on the eve of a midterm election.The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.
Ten points higher than the previous biggest gaps and apparently peaking at just the right time.
And on that: Christine O'Donnell outdraws Biden 5-to-1 in rallies (also at Hot Air).
O'Donnell is not as much of a longshot as some of the people I'm pushing, so yeah, she can win too. It will take very high conservative turnout and dispirited Democrat turnout, but that is our formula to success this year overall.
And In Republican Precincts in Illinois...
Big turn-out at my polling place, which is in reliably Republican Oak Brook in reliably Republican DuPage County in reliably crooked Illinois. I've never seen the place that busy; waiting lines for both the booths and the Diebold-Cheney Vote Fraudutrons. With any luck Alexi Gianoulis is wearing orange and picking up litter in six months. And not as a US senator, either.
Thanks to Sort of Mad Max.
Posted by: Ace at
08:56 AM
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— DrewM It has begun! I'm late on this but it's worth noting.
Yesterday I blogged about how Boehner was going to take Obama to task for talking about "enemies" to describe American citizens who he said Latino voters had to "punish" over policy differences.
Before the Speaker in waiting could make his speech, Obama surrendered but not gracefully.
"Now the Republicans are saying that I'm calling them enemies," Obama said. "What I'm saying is you're an opponent of this particular provision, comprehensive immigration reform, which is something very different."
I love how he tries to make the Republicans the bad guys. How dare they accurately reflect what he said! That's racist or something.
Liberals are forever going on about super smart they are and how dumb Republicans are yet it seems they are the ones who so often need to explain what they really meant was something entirely different from the actual meaning of the words they used.
Still pretty cool that he's already reacting to Boehner. The Republicans need to keep the pressure up. Obama is not accustomed to being challenged, he doesn't handle it well.
Character comes though in adversity and Obama's is petty and ugly. The more that's shown, the better it will be for Republicans.
Posted by: DrewM at
08:11 AM
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