"I'll die before I'll—"
BOOM!!
"'...finish my sentence,' I think he was saying."

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:49 AM | Comments (257)
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The White House is doing damage control tonight as "progressives" continue to lose their shit over the tax cut compromise. Obama released a special video message directed to his supporters a few hours ago. He all but pleads for understanding from the faithless wretches:

“I’ve counted on your support because you understand the importance of changing our politics, of doing the hard work of finding the common ground,” President Obama said in a video message to supporters released Tuesday night. “It’s not perfect but this compromise is an essential step on the road to recovery.”

“I know some folks – even good friends – are unhappy with the plan because, as with any negotiation, getting there required some give and take,” he said.

Click over for the video, if you like. He still looks like hell, like he's coming to pieces and he can't find the exit, though not as bad as he did for the press conference earlier today. Also: somebody needs to tell him to never wear a brown tie again in his life ever at all. Ever. At all.

I especially like the part where he concedes that the tax cut deal will force him to run for reelection on campaign to increase taxes:

And he vowed that “this is not the end of this fight. These tax cuts will expire in two years … and I will continue to make the case to the American people about why I don’t believe they should be renewed. In fact, I’m confident – as we make the tough choices to cut the deficit – it will become apparent that we can’t afford to extend these tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans one day longer.”

I wonder how it was that two years was selected. Obama wants none, the GOP wants a permanent cut. And they somehow whittled it down to the 2012 election season? Pure genius.

Oh, and a note on the Social Security payroll tax reduction. Here's how the White House put it:

The framework agreement reached by the administration includes an about 2%, employee-side payroll tax cut for over 155 million workers – providing tax relief of about $120 billion next year.This tax cut will have a major impact on jobs and growth – creating substantial numbers of jobs. It is widely recognized by economists across the political spectrum as a high bang for the buck way to boost growth and was cited by both major deficit reduction commissions as consistent with long term fiscal discipline.

A payroll tax cut has been endorsed by experts and commentators from across the political spectrum. Just last month, both the President’s Fiscal Commission and the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Debt Reduction Task Force described a payroll tax cut in 2011 as an effective way to spur growth and job creation. The tax cut legislation would provide for a transfer of General Revenues to the Social Security Trust Fund, ensuring no negative impact on Social Security solvency. And, as economist Nouriel Roubini wrote earlier this year, a payroll tax cut would spur growth because “for employees, the increased take-home pay would boost much-needed economic consumption and advance the still-crucial process of deleveraging households.”

This, along with the unemployment benefits extension I wrote about earlier, has taken a lot of hits from Republicans who are pissed that it doesn't do as much for the job situation as perhaps a reduction on the employer side of the ledger. True, but unemployment isn't the only issue on the table, and it's not even the main one when it comes to tax cuts.

The main issue when it comes to tax cuts is tax cuts. Are you going to tell me that in 2012, an election year, with a more Republican Congress than we have presently, and an economy still in the crapper (even by the White House's overgenerous predictions), the President is going to have any progress raising the payroll tax by two percent?

Because that's just what it will be. This year it's a "tax cut." Two years from now it's going to be a "tax hike." And it's not going to conveniently be taxes on "the rich", those easily-maligned boogymen who apparently keep taking food off the tables of their fellow countrymen. It's going to be a tax hike on ever dollar earned up to the cap by almost every taxpayer in America!

I can't even tell you how awesomely awesome that is. I mean-- I am Jack's tumescent cock.*

But WAIT, there's MORE. The flip side to every taxation issue is a spending issue. Stop your ass right there, look back up to what I quoted from the White House. Pare away the bullshit. Do you see it? Do you see what they did?

I'm going to tell you a story: Sometimes I get my nieces balloons from the store. Helium balloons, y'know. And they're great and all, but they hang around for days and days, even after they're no longer sticking to the ceiling and really just rolling around looking pathetic on the floor, and my nieces always cry if I throw them out before they're completely exhausted and basically empty sacks on the ground. So the trick is to deflate them in fairly short order so they're empty sooner and I can just pick 'em up and put them in the garbage. It helps to poke a hole in them.

One more time:

[...] The tax cut legislation would provide for a transfer of General Revenues to the Social Security Trust Fund, ensuring no negative impact on Social Security solvency.[...]

Do you see it now? The tax cut deal will poke a hole in the so-called "Social Security Trust Fund." Even the illusion of a trust fund cannot be sustained indefinitely. And, like I just got through explaining, this is not a temporary tax reduction, no matter how much Obama says it is.

This is the opening gambit in starving the beast. And I know, I know. Many Republicans don't want to kill Social Security, they just want to replace it. Great. This payroll tax scheme dispenses with the argument that "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." Because it will be impossible to argue that Social Security isn't broke while all it's helium has leaked out and it's a slightly damp sack on the carpet.

Democrats are going to be standing around in 2012, an election year with a bum economy, trying to run campaigns on raising taxes not just for the wealthy, but also for everyone else, and also on spending more on their collapsing Social Security regime.

I am Jack's aching nipples.

*See here, if you don't get that particular reference.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 06:54 PM | Comments (178)
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Good evening all M&Ms.
There's an upcoming Chicagoland Moron Meetup this Saturday:
Noon - ? on Saturday, Dec. 11 at the Tilted Kilt 6320 ROUTE 53, Woodridge, IL 60517

Remembering Pearl Harbor

Is it me or did it get less coverage than usual this year?

Plus genghis points out this article on William Clothier, one of the dwindling number of Pearl Harbor survivors.

William Clothier was a 20-year-old Marine private aboard the battleship USS Nevada when Japanese torpedo planes and dive bombers attacked Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941.

The Burien man, now 89, remembers that he and a buddy were preparing to attend church on shore, hoping to meet "a better class of girls" than those who frequented the Black Cat Tavern in downtown Honolulu. He said it was a bright, beautiful Sunday morning, just before 8 a.m., when explosions shattered the quiet.

"One day you're going to church, and two hours later you're walking with blood on your feet and all your friends are dead," Clothier recalled.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 05:13 PM | Comments (517)
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I admit, I'm hoping it turns out good. As much as I despise the way Martin is dragging out this story, the first novel was exceptional. HBO has slowly been releasing info on the miniseries, including some exceptional teaser videos you can see over at the website.

HBO just put up this 10-minute "behind the scenes" feature that has lots of stuff from the first few episodes: more...

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 04:53 PM | Comments (38)
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When Obama started pushing the latest round of direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians I predicted it would come to nothing (I really went out on a limb with that one). Alas, I was wrong. Something did come of this gambit...more confirmation Obama is in over his head.

The United States has abandoned efforts to convince Israel to renew a freeze on settlement construction as a precondition for renewing Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, a State Department official said Tuesday.

U.S.-Israeli talks over a possible settlement freeze have ended after what the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy, called a "joint determination." A previous Israeli moratorium on new settlements in the occupied West Bank expired in September, and Palestinians have refused to return to stalled talks unless new construction stops.

Washington will continue to work with both sides on core issues, with Palestinian negotiators set to visit Washington next week, the official said. But the United States and Israel "have determined a moratorium extension at this time will not provide the best basis for direct negotiations," the official added.

All of that drama with Netanyahu and putting distance the US and Israel got Obama....nothing.

As we saw with the health care debate and now the tax deal, we see Obama can't bring Democrats together on amicable terms, let alone craft a deal with Republicans. How exactly this guy was going to bridge the Israel-Palestinian divide was always a mystery to me.

At one point the Israelis were offered a squadron of F-35s in exchange for a three month extension of the freeze. I imagine the Israelis figured the F-35s were a long, long way away and they might be able to get them in the future from another, more friendly, US administration without giving up anything now.

Poor Obama...this being President thing is hard. It might have been helpful to have some real experience before running for the job.

Posted by: DrewM at 02:21 PM | Comments (238)
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I've been seeing this error in media reports and the blogosphere all day, particularly from folks like Hugh Hewitt complaining about the absurdity of 13 more months of "paid unemployment" tacked onto the existing 99 weeks, so just as a point of clarification:

The tax deal would extend the federal unemployment payments scheme for another 13 months. It would not add 13 months of payment eligibility to the current 99 weeks authorized by federal law. I agree with Hewitt that 161 weeks of unemployment insurance would be absurd. Fortunately, that's not part of the tax cut deal.

Background:
Some unemployed are eligible for unemployment insurance benefits. First come 26 weeks of state benefits. Then, if the individual is still unemployed, he may apply for federal benefits. These federal "extensions", referred to as "tiers", get progressively shorter from 20 weeks at Tier 1 to 6 weeks at Tier 4. Then come 20 weeks of "Extended Benefits" which were tacked on by Obama last year. When an individual finishes his 20 weeks of Extended Benefits, he can't get any more federal unemployment assistance. The 99 weeks number comes from adding up the state benefits, plus the Tiers and EB.

However, the program was not funded past this month. The funding scheme was set up so that individuals can finish receiving assistance for whichever tier they are on, but cannot apply for the next tier after November 30. EB payments are to halt completely on December 12.

The Tax Cut Deal:
The deal provides:

The framework agreement extended unemployment benefits at their current level for 13 months, through the end of 2011. This will save millions of Americans searching for work from losing their unemployment benefits in the coming months and will help create hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Setting aside the puffery in the second sentence, this says that the unemployment scheme I described above will be continued until January 2012. In other words, individuals will still get their four tiers and EB payment, if the deal passes Congress. That's 99 weeks, in accordance with federal law.

It does not say that the EB payment or the Tiers are getting lengthened or that another type of extension (Extended Extended Benefits?) is being added to the scheme. Rather it says, the benefits will continue "at their current level" for 13 months.

Here's some background on unemployment insurance that describes the scheme and its imminent expiration.

So far, the Hill, OpenCongress, and Las Vegas' KTVN have correctly described the unemployment insurance extension. Other media, including CNN, ABC News, and Fox News keep incorrectly reporting that the unemployment insurance extension in the deal will add 13 months of coverage to the existing 99 weeks.

Incidentally, I'm probably being too hard on the folks, including in the media, maybe, who didn't understand this proposal. Obama's own description of it was ambiguous. For example, at the press conference today, right after the "hostage-taker" slur, he said "There are people right now who, when their unemployment insurance runs out, will not be able to pay the bills."

A plausible interpretation of that sentence is that "when their 99 weeks run out, they will not be able to pay the bills." This interpretation implies that the tax cut proposal will extend the 99 weeks.

Though plausible, that is not the correct interpretation. Rather, he means "when their state unemployment insurance runs out or their Tier 1 benefits or Tier 2 benefits run out, they will not be able to pay the bills because they won't be able to apply for federal jobless insurance or Tier 2 benefits or Tier 3 benefits, etc., respectively."

He doesn't say it that way because, obviously, it's not very pretty, and more importantly because he gets political points for sounding like he's even going to help the folks who have run up against the 99 weeks.

Is there hope for the 99ers, as they're now being called? Not on the horizon:

Administrator Cindy Jones says the deal announced Monday would only continue the 99 weeks of eligibility for another year, not extend benefits to those who've reached that threshold.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 01:45 PM | Comments (159)
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Apparently, Joe isn't amused by the NYT's printing parts of the WikiLeaks leaks.

A leading US senator suggested tonight that the New York Times and other news organisations publishing the US embassy cables being released by WikiLeaks could be investigated for breaking US espionage laws...

Posted by: Purple Avenger at 12:37 PM | Comments (112)
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Deutsche Bank is pretty bullish on the payroll tax reduction aspect of the GOP-Obama tax deal.

According to our calculations, the Social Security tax reduction could add 0.7% to output next year, thereby taking Q4 over Q4 real GDP up to 4.1% versus our current 3.3% projection. This conclusion is based on the assumption that there are not offsetting expenditure reductions elsewhere in the Federal budget.

Goldman Sachs has a similar estimate.

If any part of this deal is going to stimulate the economy, this is it. The rest of the deal is mostly continuation of what we've been doing. Keeping the rates as they are was always defensive, a way to prevent Obama and the Democrats from doing more harm.

Obama is taking credit for the payroll tax cut idea and calming it is part of the concessions he got from the GOP as part of the overall agreement to keep tax rates steady but thatÂ’s simply BS.

Remember during the debate over the so called “stimulus” bill when Obama said the GOP didn’t have any ideas and simply was saying no to everything? That was always a lie, the GOP did have an alternative plan and guess what was item number one in it (pdf)?

Eliminate the 3.1% payroll tax for all American EMPLOYEES for 2 years, and use general revenue to pay for Social Security and Medicare obligations.

Imagine what the last two years would have been like had the stimulus actually been used in ways that stimulated the economy and not as a means to pay off Democratic interest groups.

As for the tax cut dealÂ…Paul Ryan has come out for it but Harry Reid doesnÂ’t seem to be in a rush to pass it. (Update: Reid says the deal needs "more work")

After todayÂ’s (un)presidential temper tantrum, I canÂ’t imagine that Democrats are more interested in swallowing this pill than they were yesterday. If they fail to pass it in the lame duck, IÂ’m guessing H.R.1 in the 112th Congress is going to be a bill to make the tax cuts permanent.

This is getting very, very interesting.

Wow: Pelosi isn't feeling the love in her caucus for the deal and then it got weird.

"We have some unease," Pelosi says of Obama plan & admits to being in the dark: "we didn't realize...agreement was going to be announced."

They didn't let Pelosi know they were announcing it? Can you say, "Amateur Hour"?

Best Democratic crack up in decades!

Posted by: DrewM at 12:15 PM | Comments (110)
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I used font size 0 to keep this low. I don't really want to give them any ideas.

York points out that during the ObamaCare battle, Democrats used reconcilliation, and justified its use by noting that Bush had used that means to pass his tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. So, point being, the Democrats could use reconcilliation again to raise taxes on the rich... except for the fact they don't dare piss off the public again.

So who's the coward? (There can be more than one coward, of course.)

White House aides are blaming... Pelosi.

We wanted a fight, the House didn't throw a punch," a senior White House official tells ABC News, pointing out that for months before the 2010 midterm elections, President Obama was making the case against the Bush tax cuts for wealthier Americans. "The House wouldn't vote before the Senate, and the Senate was afraid they'd lose a vote on it."

"It was like the Jets versus Sharks except there weren't any Jets," the official said. "Senator Schumer says he wants a fight? He couldn't hold his caucus together."

So Democrats are all blaming each other for failure. Can't they all be right?

Posted by: Ace at 11:41 AM | Comments (136)
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Peyton Manning is human after all. On the plus side, looks like his income taxes aren't going up.

Lose a few, win a few, as they say.

Here's the moron standings you morons, including the low rung lamest football pickers you ever smacked in the mouth for their lunch money.

The Good:

Reggie Bush's Birth Cert: 111
joltin' j: 109
Quarreyman: 106
Commando Pete: 106
Bruin 22: 105
Iowa Amy: 105
HailMaryHector: 105

The Bad and the Ugly

Ben: 98
DrewM:92
Russ from Winterset: 90 (who correctly picked 13 last week!)
CDR M: 90
DiT: 84

Thanks as always, to Ben and CDR M for the cipherin.

Exit question: Jason Garrett, good enough?

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 11:06 AM | Comments (36)
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