Well, when you get something that you made to order, you should be happy about what you get.

The full numbers aren't out yet but Democrat leaders in the House are talking them up, no doubt to put pressure on the 'moderate' types.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) just released the first set of Congressional Budget Office numbers to reporters this morning.

The bill would cost $940 billion, and reduce the deficit by $130 billion over the first 10 years and $1.2 trillion in the second 10 years. The deficit numbers Democrats have been most worried about, and will be key to convincing moderates to coming on board with the bill.

Not so fast? [Slublog] - Rep. Paul Ryan's office just issued the following statement (pdf link):

"The Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that there is currently no official cost estimate. Yet House Democrats are touting to the press – and spinning for partisan gain – numbers that have not been released and are impossible to confirm. Rep. James Clyburn stated he was “giddy” about these unsubstantiated numbers. This is the latest outrageous exploitation by the Majority – in this case abusing the confidentiality of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office – to pass their massive health care overhaul at any cost."

I highly recommend this post by economist Greg Mankiw on why claims of deficit neutrality in the healthcare bill are unconvincing.

Whiplash- The CBO report is out. Ed at Hot Air has the details.

Posted by: DrewM at 07:15 AM | Comments (245)
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Good Day to you, Morons, Moronettes, and all you drooling lovable pudding-eaters with your sneakers on the wrong feet.

As you all know, here at the 'Q, we usually depend on Val-U-Rite 'irregular' vodka and hobo-killin' to take care of any stress issues that may arise in the course of our daily meanderings.

However, sometimes the life's blood of a drifter slithering through our fingers in big wet chunky gobbets just isn't enough to calm us or take our worry away.

Let's be realistic; life has gotten difficult for many, many American working men and women. I'm sure there's plenty of tales of woe right here on this very blog. I have a couple of friends who are very, very, very tense right now. One of them is a working mom whose office staff has been pared back to the point where she feels that the world is resting on her shoulders. The other is the backbone of her family, who recently lost her (not-great paying) job and is trying to struggle along on some pretty paltry unemployment dough.

These are tense times. This post is dedicated to all you worried people, and to my friends Tammy and Lisa.

Most of us are probably familiar with these mental exercises that help affirm us and provide a healthy outlook.

I have a relaxing and enjoyable stress-reduction exercise for you under the break, here. Please consider it a gift from the Ace of Spades family, to yours. more...

Posted by: LauraW at 06:43 AM | Comments (114)
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Check you six Mav!

Longtime incumbent John McCain now leads conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points in ArizonaÂ’s hotly contested Republican Senate Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.

Everyone had been thinking Hayworth would run for awhile but he didn't officially announce his candidacy until mid-February, so you can see how quickly he's closed the earlier gap on McCain. The primary isn't until August 24th, so a lot can happen.

I have to admit, I've of two minds about this.

Hayworth isn't exactly my ideal candidate given some of his past problems and the fact that he lost his last election. I don't see someone who lost a House race as a natural choice to run statewide.

I'd love to see McCain sent packing but given how close we may be to get the House and the Senate (though it is still a long shot), I'm just not convinced that taking a safe seat and turning it into a potential toss up is a smart move strategically

On the other side, Ace lays out the case for Hayworth here.

My heart wants to see Mav kicked to the curb but my head says, suck it up. To me politics should be business, not personal. While personally satisfying, a Hayworth win could be bad for business.

Posted by: DrewM at 06:39 AM | Comments (88)
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A poll released today has Tom Campbell at 28 percent, Carly Fiorina at 22 percent, and Chuck DeVore at 9 percent among likely GOP voters. The remaining 40 percent or so are undecided. This echoes other recent polls showing Campbell pulling ahead of his competitors.

The poll also put the candidates up against Boxer:

In hypothetical matchups for the Nov. 2 general election, the poll found Campbell leads Boxer 44 percent to 43 percent, Boxer leads Fiorina 45 percent to 44 percent, and she leads DeVore 45 percent to 41 percent. The general election matchups have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Fifty-nine percent said they had no opinion of Campbell, compared to 58 percent for Fiorina and 78 percent for DeVore.

I've been pretty pessimistic about knocking Boxer out of her seat and I still think her support will come back once the general election season hits full swing. Obama will be fundraising and stumping for Boxer, while our GOP guys have visibility issues.

Later: Yeah, that's the problem with blogging while semi-conscious. Things like spelling and punctuation go bye-bye. I have corrected some loose shit in this post. Thanks.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 05:45 AM | Comments (31)
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Good morning. This space is for commentary on the Top Headlines in the sidebar at the right.

Also, updated whip count will be out this evening, but early-morning news out of Massachusetts is that Steven Lynch was on Jim and Margery on WTKK 96.9 saying he's a "no" and that's "not likely to change." This is another unexpected turn, as nobody (including me) had him as a potential flip from "yes" to "no."

Other news out of Massachusetts show "yes" votes Dina Titus, Michael Capuano, and John Tierney all saying that they are now undecided. Once again, I had all three as "Definite Yes" votes for Pelosi based on their prior statements.

Thanks to David, Josh, and enoxo.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 05:25 AM | Comments (105)
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First, a note on the "fauxmentum" mentioned by Ace earlier. Today Democrats Dale Kildee and Jim Oberstar announced that they would be supporting the healthcare bill and the media had a spasm reporting that they were "Stupak allies" who were bailing on him. This is an extension of the argument over the weekend that Stupak's Dozen were really Stupak's Half-Dozen and that even they were crumbling.

Uh... no. This is a misleading attempt to scare wavering Democrats into thinking that momentum is building for deeming the Senate language good enough for pro-life Democrats (you see what I did there?). Look down at my "Stupak's Dozen" category. Guess who was never in it: Dale Kildee and Jim Oberstar. In other words, of course they're voting for the bill. Everyone knew this. Their announcement today, intended only to burnish their own dubious pro-life credentials for furious constituents and put pressure on Stupak, does not change the numbers. Their "yes" votes do not get Pelosi any closer to 216.

Now, today's changes to the whip count:

Going in the "Definitely Voting Yes" category is Dennis Kucinich. That puts Pelosi one closer to her goal and reduces the "maybes" by one. Kucinich was the only "yes" vote not already in my "yes" column who announced today.

But in a surprise announcement Sanford Bishop (GA-2) switched from "yes" to "undecided." I thought Bishop was a Definite Yes (and I still expect him to go that way in the end), but for now he's going back in the "Yes, but Maybe" pile, adding to Pelosi's headache.

Also going back into the group of "Maybes" is Heath Shuler (NC-11), who I had in the "No Means No" group. That gives Pelosi another possible target for a pick-up.

Tom Perriello (VA-5), one of the Stupak Dozen, stated that he is satisfied with the Senate language on abortion, but that he remains undecided on the overall bill. So Stupak's Dozen is now Stupak's Eleven (fine, fine, he's losing some, happy legacy media?) and Perriello goes in the "Yes, but Maybe" group.

As for "maybes" announcing that they will vote "no", I have no media statements from these guys today. There are a few reports that staffers in the office of Lincoln Davis (TN-4) are saying he is a "no" vote, but nothing has made it into the media. The same is true for John Barrow (GA-12). My whip count is based on media statements, "official" statements, because I think they're slightly less likely to lie when it's "on the record" than when they're talking to constituents on the phone. Sad, but not unreasonable. So, no changes for them yet.

So where does that leave us? Pelosi still has 192 (the Kooch and Bishop are a wash). This leaves her 24 votes short of the necessary 216. There are 28 maybes, 16 who voted "no" on the November House bill.

Thanks to Jane, Jonathan, Jeff, Rocks, Timothy, and Nick.

The names are below the fold. If you're going to make phone calls, I still think my list from yesterday are the ones most likely to vote no. more...

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 08:35 PM | Comments (157)
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When you're out there in a couple of skiffs zipping over the waves looking for the big score, it's important to be able to recognize the difference between this, a freighter:

and this, a heavily-armed not-freighter, a Frigate in fact, the Dutch warship HNLMS Tromp:

One of these could score you a big fat ransom. The other one not so much.

Troops aboard the Dutch warship HNLMS Tromp fired warning shots Wednesday off the coast of East Africa as suspected Somali pirates in two small skiffs raced toward their warship, the EU Naval Force said.

After the pirates realized they had made what spokesman Cmdr. John Harbour called a "rather silly mistake," they turned around and fled. EU Naval Force personnel tracked down the two skiffs and a third suspected mothership, finding ammunition and rocket-propelled grenades on board, said Harbour, a spokesman for the EU Naval Force.

The two skiffs were destroyed and the pirates were set free on the mothership after it had been cleared of weapons.

... huh?

I suppose there's not a lot for the pirates to worry about except for the inconvenience of losing a couple of little boats, a few RPGs and some rifles. I'll bet it's a total pain in the butt to find AK-47s and other small arms in Somalia.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 06:16 PM | Comments (118)
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Good evening and Happy St. Paddy's Day all

Anatomy of a Cable News Story
Language warning. And yeah this is about 75% of CNN's stories.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 05:47 PM | Comments (775)
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Because they have to wait a certain number of days after getting the CBO report.

So what's the hold up? I imagine they're changing the bill to cheat the score as we speak.

Posted by: Ace at 04:50 PM | Comments (157)
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Karma baby, she's a bitch.

No word yet if the modern day John Adams types at the ACLU will be suing on behalf of his estate.

Posted by: DrewM at 04:05 PM | Comments (100)
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