May 07, 2010
— Gabriel Malor Friday. Woooooooo!
Posted by: Gabriel Malor at
05:24 AM
| Comments (72)
Post contains 10 words, total size 1 kb.
May 06, 2010
— Purple Avenger Byron York also observes (correctly IMO):
"Obama has made a new approach to terrorism one of the key features of his presidency...One of my greatest fears has always been that someday the terrorists are going to recruit some competent people who can plan and execute significant attacks without getting caught and/or leaving much in the way of clues....Yet the attacks and attempted attacks continue. And everyone knows it was luck, and not anti-terror work, that prevented American deaths on Christmas Day and in Times Square..."
For the most part their apparent and irrational flair for the dramatic has been reducing their absolute effectiveness, and I think we're starting to take this situation for granted assuming it will persist.
Years ago Frederik Pohl wrote The Cool War, a story about a conflict that wasn't quite hot, but not cold either. Its about a constant annoyance level of infrastructure attacks, and sabotage type operations that just kind of drain everyone. In Pohl's book, the actors are state level, but inserting a terrorist group in today's updated scenario isn't much of a stretch.
I think the Obama administration is whistling past the graveyard pretending our "successes" are anything other than a direct result of having stupid enemies. If they smarten up, we're boned.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at
07:23 PM
| Comments (165)
Post contains 243 words, total size 2 kb.
— Maetenloch Happy Thursday all.
Does Your Biology Affect Your Trust in Government?
Well that's what one scientist claims:
Zak put 130 test subjects through his normal routines. He sprayed half of them with oxytocin, half with a placebo, then ran them through a battery of tests and measurements."The people on oxytocin did report that they trusted other people more, and the people who trusted others more also trusted their government more. So it's sort of a two-step process," he says.
And it's true that the hormone, oxytocin, does make people more trusting and empathetic. Of course I suspect the main reason people don't trust the government these days is because it hasn't been particularly trustworthy - rather than due to a hormone deficiency. I once got some oxytocin spray with an order of vitamins and tried it a few times but didn't notice any dramatic effects - I didn't make any more donations, give extra hugs, hate hobos less or suddenly feel love for big government. I did feel a tiny bit relaxed but no more than you'd get from a can of beer.
However I am open to the idea that biology may predispose some people to a more conservative or liberal way of viewing the world. Personally I've been a conservative pretty much even before I was aware of politics. Some of that probably came from my parents who are mostly conservative themselves (more fiscal than social - my father had several Milton Friedman books). But I've never even been tempted by leftist beliefs despite some indoctrination in school and college. So I'm probably just wired up to be a conservative. But maybe the Ludovico Treatment could make me a good progressive.
Posted by: Maetenloch at
06:16 PM
| Comments (1015)
Post contains 706 words, total size 7 kb.
— Ace
The video's maker wonders why the American media has all but embargoed this. I didn't even see a reference to it until last night.
Posted by: Ace at
03:49 PM
| Comments (312)
Post contains 34 words, total size 1 kb.
— DrewM Color me shocked and by shocked I mean, pissed these heroes were put through this.
Virginia military jury found a Navy SEAL not guilty on charges of punching a suspected Iraqi terrorist.Matthew McCabe, a Special Operations Petty Officer Second Class, was facing three charges: dereliction of performance of duty for willfully failing to safeguard a detainee, making a false official statement, and assault.
The suspected terrorist McCabe was accused of punching is Ahmed Hashim Abed, who is the suspected masterminded the grisly killings of four American contractors in Iraq six years ago.
This follows four days of pre-trial motions, jury selection and testimony before a Judge Advocate General, Captain Moira Modelewski, at the Naval Station Norfolk.
Another one of the Navy SEALs charged, but acquitted in connection with the Abed case, Petty Officer First Class Julio Huertas, took the stand for the defense Thursday morning.
He said that he and the other two Navy SEALs, McCabe and Jonathan Keefe, did visit the detention facility where Abed was being held on the night of the alleged incident.
But, he insists, there was no assault. Huertas and Keefe were found not guilty last month in separate trials in Baghdad.
Just remember, each of these SEALS were given the opportunity to face Non Judicial Punishment which more or less would have been a slap on the wrist in terms of punishment (compared to trial). It would however have been the end of their SEAL service and even worse...accepting it would have meant accepting they did something wrong. Instead, they exercised their right to a Court Martial and the chance to clear their names. They also risked jail time in the process but they didn't accept dishonor for something they did not do.
I hope each of these men gets some well deserved leave and then get back to work removing terrorists from the land of the living.
Posted by: DrewM at
03:06 PM
| Comments (124)
Post contains 329 words, total size 2 kb.
— Ace It's May 18th.
n what was the late U.S. Rep. John Murtha's western Pennsylvania district — reachable through John Murtha Johnstown-Cambria County Airport or John P. Murtha Highway — Democrats watch nervously, hoping his former top aide can hold on to the House seat.Mark Critz, who worked for Murtha for more than a decade in Pennsylvania, including the past three as district director, is in a fierce fight with Republican businessman Tim Burns in the May 18 special election. The national GOP has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to push Burns' candidacy, sensing a legitimate shot of capturing the seat held for 36 years by Murtha, an ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.
A loss would unnerve Democrats, who face the backlash against the party in power typical for a midterm election year, and depress the outlook for the party's other candidates in Pennsylvania, which Barack Obama won easily in 2008.
Democrats hold a roughly 2-to-1 registration edge in the socially conservative, blue-collar district filled with bitter dead-enders who cling to their God, guns, and seething hatred at all things brown, or, really, even sorta biege.
I added the last part. It's what American Pravda means. Might as well spell it out.
At Hot Air, the Democrats' health-care reform which was assured to give them a ten point bounce isn't working its magic:
The polling shows a very close race — with Burns in the lead. That has Democrats worried about how other normally-safe districts might turn out in November. That fear has come out in Critz’ campaigning, where he has tried walking a tightrope between opposition to ObamaCare and refusing to commit to overturning it. In a debate yesterday, Burns hammered Critz as to whether his opposition means anything at all if he refuses to take action once elected, a hypocrisy that will not have gone unnoticed by voters watching the debate.
Tim Burns, meanwhile, is summoning Tea Power:
Just got off the phone with Angela Lash of the Tim Burns for Congress campaign and she says they’ve already got teams of volunteers coming in from Virginia, Maryland and Ohio. But it looks like they’ll need all the help they can get....If Tea Party people want to make a difference — to help write those “Democrat disaster” headlines Cilizza is worried about — then it’s time to visit TimBurnsForCongress.com, or e-mail the campaign or call 814-619-3414.
If you click on his link, he's trying to drum up a paltry $35,000 in campaign donations -- surely he deserves more than that.
Scott Brown will be campaigning for Burns, by the way.
We always talk about these races in terms of their secondary effects -- it will "unnerve the Democrats." It could "force them to spend more money on presumed-safe districts." It would increase conservative enthusiasm even more while depressing Democrats' still further. And all the rest of it.
And that's true, certainly, but let's not get so sophisticated and insider-y we forget the primary effect of a win: We defeat Murtha's bagman and deny him a vote in the US Congress, and instead elect a good guy who will vote our truth* 90% of the time. If we had five or six more votes -- if the Democrats' majority in the House had been five or six less -- we very well could have defeated ObamaCare, and Cap and Tax, and even the Spendulus.
A vote is a vote. There are only 435 of them, and we need 40 to take the House. Might as well get this party started at +1.
* So goofy, "our truth." I didn't know what to write here, thought of that, realized it was stupid and coffee-house-lefty-lesbian-poetry-jam-ish, but decided to use it anyway, because, who cares.
It occurred to me because I occasionally quote Vince Vaughan's hilarious line from Couples Retreat: "I know my truth."
Posted by: Ace at
01:25 PM
| Comments (190)
Post contains 666 words, total size 4 kb.
— DrewM BBC streaming video here (thanks to Slu for the heads up). CSPAN 3 is also running the BBC coverage.
Not sure who I'm rooting for really. I think if Cameron wins, it will be like if McCain won in '08. The political spectrum in the UK will run from left to lefter, no real distinctions.
Polls close in a minute at 5pm eastern.
More about the exit polls...according to the commentators it's based on a national model. I'm not an expert of the regions of the UK but I know enough to know there are a lot of regional differences and one size fits all is going to have a hefty margin of error.
Winning the most seats doesn't mean that Cameron gets the first shot to form a government. If Labour can get the LibDems to support Brown, he stays PM. That seems unlikely but it'll be a mess.
Labour strategist crowing about what a great accomplishment a hung parliament is for them. Probably more lucky Cameron crashed from his earlier lead.
I really don't like the parliamentary systems.
Nick Clegg, the LibDem leader, is going to be a very popular guy soon. One of his big things is election reform, especially getting rid of the 'first past the pole' system and getting proportional representation. I wonder if he'll go with whichever party gives him that in return for staying in power for a defined term, then he bails and forces new elections.
It might work well for Conservatives if that happened. They would dump Cameron, elect a more Thatcherite Conservative leader and then contest the next election by offering a clear choice between the parties.
"The Swing"- They keep talking about 'the swing' in votes. The Labour Party has won the first two seats. That's not a surprise, they are like Kucinich and Barney Frank's seats have come in for Democrats (two very safe seats) but what they are looking at is the change in vote percentages from the previous result. The hung parliament prediction is based on like a 5% swing from Labor to Conservative over the country. Well, two very safe Labour seats are showing almost 10% swings to the Conservatives.
Looks like the exit poll might be off bu still early days as they say across the pond.
Posted by: DrewM at
01:01 PM
| Comments (87)
Post contains 433 words, total size 3 kb.
Bumped Due to Importance
— DrewM NYSE Down 900 or so and falling.
Okay looks like it's bouncing back and the loss in the 450 range.
Stocks plunged Thursday and took the Dow Jones industrials down almost 1,000 points as investors succumbed to fears that Greece's debt problems would halt the global economic recovery.Computer selling intensified the selling while investors watched protests in the streets of Athens on TV. Fears are running high in the financial markets that the Greek government will not be able to implement austerity measures that would enable it to contain its debt problems. And, in turn, that the country's problems will hurt other economies in Europe and even the U.S.
They didn't hit the automatic shutdown point but it was close.
Ace's Headline:
Bush's Failed Policies of the Past Cause Crisis In Greece, World Panic
Not to be a hack, but how is it Bush is still being blamed for what is obviously a near-universal world-wide asset-bubble?
Did Bush also cause a housing bubble in Spain? Did Bush's "dangerous deregulation" cause foreign countries and foreign markets to invest so heavily Spanish housing speculation?
Yes, America, like a Ranger, leads the way, but.... Maybe I'm crazy but it sure seems to me that virtually every country is having the same, or very similar problems, and last time I checked Bush was not elected to serve as President of the Galaxy.
Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News: At Hot Air, Allah posts a commenter noting the current rumor (which we're hearing over here, too). Take already-shaky and spooky markets and add a glitch...
There was a bad print (trade) in Proctor and Gamble (PG) It went from the low $60 to $40Â’s for no reason. I worked on the NYSE for 10 years now daytrade and this is what set off the stampede. The market was primed for any reason for a sell off, the spill in the gulf and Greece, so it was the straw that broke the camels back. When something like that happens it sets off machine generated sell orders adding a pile on effect. Not good, but the recent bull market has been based on unicorns and fairy dust, it will be a very interesting summer.
A similar but different rumor (I think) says the error was caused by "M" for million being written instead of "B" for billion (or the other way 'round)...
CNBC: Human error was expected to have triggered intraday selloff. Somebody may have typed "billion" stedda "million"
Thanks to DrewM and Slublog for those rumors.
Another Rumor: From shibumi:
Supposedly, the carnage is due to a rumor that European banks are no longer lending. To anyone.
Well, three different rumors. I'm guessing that no one really has any idea yet.
Hmmm... Here's P&G's price chart. I don't know how to read this, but I think in that middle box you see the price falling asymptotically, strrrrraight down:
Posted by: DrewM at
11:52 AM
| Comments (443)
Post contains 546 words, total size 4 kb.
— Ace Third degree rape, sex with a minor, which I take to be what the rest of the country calls statutory rape. (And there is a difference -- both are monstrous, but one is more monstrous yet.)
But I don't know if it actually is stat rape, or that's just what they've gotten around to charging him with so far:
He was charged with third-degree rape, a charge that involves having intercourse with a minor. The victim was reportedly beaten during the attack.
Nice work, Hero.
Posted by: Ace at
11:44 AM
| Comments (101)
Post contains 101 words, total size 1 kb.
— Ace The interesting, and alarming, thing here is that the outsized advantage the conservatives once enjoyed has largely evaporated.
With the result too close to call, Prime Minister Gordon Brown's ruling Labor Party retains a chance of staying in power, perhaps in coalition with the centrist Liberal Democrats.Whoever wins will have to deal with a record budget deficit running in excess of 11 percent of national output, and demands for political reform following a parliamentary expenses scandal last year which left Britons disgusted with lawmakers.
"This election has been more exciting, more than I expected," said lawyer Lorraine Mullins, voting at a busy polling station in central London.
The center-right Conservatives, led by former public relations executive David Cameron, have seen a commanding poll lead dwindle since the turn of the year, with voters seemingly reluctant to embrace the change they say they offer after 13 years of Labor rule.
I had written off this Gallup poll showing an 11 point decline in (American) conservative voter enthusiasm over the last month as a likely fluke outlier, but the British situation gives me new pause.
People lie about what they want out of politics. Not everyone. I think partisans like us are pretty clear about what we want and what we expect. But the soft middle crucial for electoral success often lies about what it wants.
Often, I think they behave like people who need to lose weight. Oh, they say they want to lose weight. And, to some extent, they really do want to lose weight. But do they really want to take the arduous steps necessary to lose that weight? More often than not, no they don't, but if you polled them, they could honestly say, with 75% support, they're in favor of losing weight.
But if you took them at their word and signed them up for Fat Camp, they'd hate you forever.
The Conservative leader is probably going to win Britain’s election Thursday—and will be forced to make the kind of unpopular fiscal moves that could doom his party for a generation. Plus, Peter Stothard on Tony Blair's surprising political afterlife.As Britons trudge to the polls on Thursday, they do so knowing that none of the men who aspire to be the next prime minister have been fully honest with the electorate about the horrors of Britain's looming fiscal crisis. The country may have decided that the country needs change, but it's also afraid of that change and the austerity it will demand. Unless the polls are wrong, it seems that David Cameron will be asked to clean up the mess. It is not an enviable task.
Britons said, at one point, they really, really wanted to get their fiscal house in order -- cut welfare, cut NHS, stop borrowing themselves into oblivion -- but it seems as that day of reckoning approached, they decided maybe they wanted to keep spending and borrowing after all.
Americans are hardly any better. We have outsized deficits because we never have an actual majority for cutting popular social programs. What we actually have a temporary majorities in favor of politicians who say they'd like to cut spending, and then, when it's time to actually cut spending, that majority evaporates as a bunch of people decide they'd comfortable with financial ruin after all.
Because they are really seeking the Miracle Solution that I keep going on about, the Miracle Solution that doesn't require them to make a choice because it's basically choosing everything. Increase social spending and cut it (hey, just cut out that "waste and fraud," that's gotta be worth $8 trillion right there), and do that while cutting taxes and also cutting the deficit.
Sure! I'd be all in favor of that, too, except that it's strictly impossible.
This point has consequences for political messaging, obviously. There are some in the conservative camp -- well-represented in the comment section here -- who believe the right thing to do is to be honest about the choices which must be made and to simply be strong and convincing in arguing for those choices.
This approach has the advantage that 1, it's honest, and 2, assuming you won on such a platform, you'd have a mandate to execute precisely what you campaigned on, and we wouldn't see as much RINO backpedalling and walking-back of tough choices, because, hey, the party would have secured an outright majority for the tough medicine.
The disadvantage is that you probably won't get elected saying any of that, because the moment you go up there and say, "There's going to be a lot of pain in my cuts," Joe Democrat comes along and (for the six billionth time) proposes the Miracle Solution in which we increase social spending and also cut the deficit, while only raising taxes a smidge on the ultra-rich.
And then he wins.
He always wins. In politics, they often term strict truth-tellers as "gloomy" -- Paul Tsongas got that tag, for example. And the guys who say "You can have it all without making tough choices" get termed "optimistic" and "sunny." Like Clinton. And then like Obama. And, famously, it's the latter guys who win.
more...
Posted by: Ace at
10:54 AM
| Comments (63)
Post contains 2888 words, total size 18 kb.
40 queries taking 0.2491 seconds, 148 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.
