Good answer.

I was just talking about this on the phone. We need a few Good Cops in this, but we definitely needs some Bad Cops too.

We need a Good Cop to assure the public Republicans don't want to flirt with a default. Which would suddenly increase our debt by trillions, as interest payments on debt would skyrocket.

On the other hand, you can't just sit there like a scaredy-cat and fret about that possibility. Not if you want to actually negotiate something beneficial. You need some Bad Cops to talk up the idea that we're not afraid to not increase the debt limit.

My problem with Boehner isn't that he's playing the Good Cop. I'd advise him to play the Good Cop.

My problem is I don't think he's playing the role. I think he is too eager to compromise, which means, in the 11th hour, he'll get rolled.

This is brinksmanship. You have to be willing to go to the brink if you want to win. Even if you're not looking for a full win, but just a 60% win, you have to be willing to take it to the brink.

I think Bachmann and the rest of the Bad Cops are playing a very important role here (even if they're not setting out to "play a role" but are just saying what they believe).

After two and a half years of abject objective failure, with all of his "wins" coming in terms of simple political bulldozing, Obama's looking for yet another "win" which will actually punish the country further. But he wants this "win" to appease his firebreathing base.

We can't let him have it. And it's not just about politics; it's about the future of the country.

So hear, hear for the Bad Cops.

By the way, anyone notice the media is supposedly pushing for a purely objective goal -- "compromise" -- and yet they seem to have it in mind that only one side at the bargaining table should actually compromise?

Obama refreshes his offer of his own hazy, spendy plan from February and the media doesn't seem to notice he's offered exactly nothing for the sake of compromise.

But oh! do they notice that Michele Bachmann is taking a hard stance.

Posted by: Ace at 10:17 AM | Comments (155)
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The Huey-Hahn race is today. Vote. Huey has a decent enough ad to take a look at; notably, he attacks Hahn for having no plan on anything with his own words.

They usually don't don that. They have the ominous voice-over guy do the attack. I like when a candidate will stand behind his statement.

At Big Government, a very interesting Operation Chaos plan for Wisconsin.

Did you know the Democrats are electing the challengers for their recall elections today? And did you know it's open voting in Wisconsin? Meaning the hardest-core Tea Partier can vote in "their" elections and it's completely legal?

And did you know pro-liberty candidates have gotten themselves on the ballots in six of the contests?

All 6 GOP senators are running unopposed. The Democrats have to settle on nominees for the recall. Big Labor is pushing its slate of lackeys, but there are also pro-taxpayer, pro-liberty candidates. If you live in one of these districts, please support one of these:

Senate District Pro-Wisconsin candidate
2 Otto Junkerman
8 Gladys Huber
10 Isaac Weix
14 Rol Church
18 John Buckstaff
32 James Smith

If some or all of these guys win, the "recalls" would wind up being one conservative candidate versus another conservative candidate.

Posted by: Ace at 09:04 AM | Comments (94)
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Good polemic by Adam Hasner, a conservative candidate for Senate in Florida.

We just canÂ’t cave.

After months of posturing and failed leadership from President Obama and politicians of both parties, the debate on the debt limit is finally coming to a head.

I honestly believe we have reached a moment in history when the fate of our country is at a crossroads.

Down one road is an uncertain future marked by reckless spending that deepens the debt and deficits that are killing jobs and holding American prosperity hostage. The elites and experts tell us we have no choice but to accept the path of higher taxes and new borrowing. And naturally, they prophesize disaster if we donÂ’t continue down the only path the rest of us know America canÂ’t afford.

But this is the same argument weÂ’ve heard before. Trillions of dollars in spending later and trillions more in the hole, it is time to change course and chart a new direction.

The world will not end if Washington learns to control its spending addiction. In fact, if we can find the courage to curb trillions in reckless spending and slow the runaway growth of government, we can send nations around the globe a simple signal: There is a way to avoid a Greece-like day of reckoning. Spend less. Cut more. And stop making promises government canÂ’t keep.

Politicians in both parties donÂ’t want to hear this. Too many are willing to compromise. Cut another deal. And kick the can down the road to another Congress, another election, and ultimately another generation.

And this is absolutely unacceptable.

Posted by: Ace at 08:52 AM | Comments (82)
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A couple of months ago we posted a Wall Street Journal interview with investor Stanley Druckenmiller, the upshot of which was that he didn't believe even a scenario in which went went so far as to technically default on U.S. treasuries (e.g., by not making an interest payment when due) would have far-reaching negative consequences if it was seen as a sign we were getting our fiscal house in order.

"I think technical default would be horrible," he says from the 24th floor of his midtown Manhattan office, "but I don't think it's going to be the end of the world. It's not going to be catastrophic. What's going to be catastrophic is if we don't solve the real problem," meaning Washington's spending addiction.

With this in mind as I watch this latest round of Kabuki theatre in D.C., I'm beginning to wonder if the best course of action isn't for the house GOP to just draw the line on the credit limit at $14.3 trillion and call it a day. And it seems I'm not alone.

The Heritage Foundation blog and Kevin Williamson at NRO both recently commented on this option. First Heritage:

... Fox Business News senior correspondent Charlie Gasparino wrote in a New York Post piece some days ago that “just about every private-sector economist I speak to says that Treasury could simply use its ample cash on hand to pay off our creditors first—then begin to prioritize payments for the military and various social programs.”

This view appears to be shared in spades by the credit markets, which so far have reacted to the Obama-media scare tactics with a big yawn. When the markets fear real default, they respond by jacking up interest rates, as weÂ’ve seen in Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc. ItÂ’s happening right now in those countries.

Keep in mind that a refusal to raise the debt ceiling does not equate to default. Like the Heritage piece points out, this is a scare tactic from the left and the MSM (but I repeat myself) designed to browbeat the GOP into caving on tax and spending increases.

Williamson adds some thoughts on what awaits us if we continue to rack up debt:

The debt ceiling we’re talking about right now is statutory. There’s a law that says the government can only borrow so much. But, as I have argued before, there’s another debt ceiling — the real debt ceiling, the One True Debt Ceiling, the one that you cannot raise with a vote in Congress. There are signs that we’re getting ready to bump up against it.

Jim Pethokoukis, who has been doing some stellar reporting on this issue, yesterday noted the following commentary from a Goldman Sachs research note (emphasis Jimmy P.):

There are essentially two plausible outcomes. One is that the two sides agree on a deal in coming weeks, with headline cuts of $2+ trillion over a 10-year horizon, probably mostly composed of discretionary spending caps that gradually squeeze projected outlays in a highly back-end loaded fashion. The other outcome – whose probability has unfortunately risen in recent weeks – is that there is no deal by August 2. Even in this case, we continue to believe a default is extremely unlikely, as the Treasury would likely prioritize interest payments, Social Security and Medicare payments, and “essential” defense payments over other types of spending, and should have enough revenues to cover the essentials. But make no mistake: the negative consequences of failing to make other payments would be very severe. In the month of August, projected outflows exceed projected inflows by about $150bn (not annualized), or about 12% of GDP. Even if we allow for a further decline in cash holdings in the Treasury’s account with the Fed, this means that a failure to reach a deal would imply a huge, immediate fiscal retrenchment. The economic consequences of such a retrenchment would likely force a deal within a few days.

The real issue the politicians are trying to avoid isn't default. It's a government shutdown.

Dick Armey was on CNBC this morning and had a good line that I'll paraphrase - liberals only know of two kinds of government programs: ones that are too big to cut and ones that are too small to cut. The ones that are too big are said to be so vital that they can't be cut, and the ones that are too small are said to not make a difference in the grand scheme of things. Therefore, nothing ever gets cut.

Armey was right but, unfortunately, this isn't an affliction that only affects the left side of the aisle.

Would it really be so bad to just force this bloated pig of a federal government to prioritize its expenses for once?

Posted by: andy at 07:35 AM | Comments (190)
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Europe's sovereign debt crisis is getting more acute by the day. The recent blowout in Italy's costs to borrow aren't really indicative of problems specific to Italy; it's more a general bet by investors against the Euro.

In true European aristocrat-bureaucrat fashion, one solution to bad sovereign debt ratings is being considered: prohibit the issuance of debt-ratings for sovereign debt. Problem solved!

Here's a decent backgrounder on the troubles besetting the Eurozone right now.

Arthur Brooks asks: Isn't it morally wrong to take money from other people? Men of good will may disagree on the point at which taxation becomes punitive, but we have clearly reached a point in this country where the tax burden is being borne by relatively few people, and that's just not right. (And there is of course the age-old problem that Democrats regard all money as belonging to the Government by default; they only question in their minds is how much of your own money they will let you keep.)

Doug Bandow at Forbes has more on this in "Patriotic Taxation or Unpatriotic Redistribution". With the Obama brand of Democrats, it's all class-war, all the time. Redistribution isn't an economic principle to liberal Democrats. It's a social-justice issue, and they will insist on it regardless of the damage it does to the economy.

The WSJ wonders: Where Have America's Jobs Gone? The upshot is: the old jobs aren't coming back. Automation, outsourcing, globalization, and demographics means that the American job market -- and hence American workers -- is going to have to change dramatically in the coming years to stay competitive.

On the interminable debt-ceiling debate, let me re-iterate: without significant entitlement-program reform, it's a waste of time. Trying to solve our debt problem without addressing the biggest drivers of our debt is just stupid.

In Minnesota, people who aren't welfare-state soaks are getting along just fine during the state government shutdown.

Signposts on the way to oblivion: Central Falls, RI contemplates bankruptcy. Pension and retiree-healthcare debt is killing them, just as it's killing hundreds -- maybe thousands -- of other cities and counties in the nation.

When bankruptcy looms for municipalities and counties, you get sob-stories like this one. But the truth is stark -- you cannot spend money you don't have, and you can't tax your citizens without limit to pay for ridiculous promises made by politicians who are in many cases long dead. It's wrong to lie to people and encourage them to plan for a future that cannot be funded; it is even more reprehensible to force young people to make those lies good at the expense of their own lives and futures.

more...

Posted by: Monty at 04:59 AM | Comments (210)
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They who bow to the enemy abroad, will not be of power to subdue the conspirator at home.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:59 AM | Comments (127)
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Okay tonight I have some good news and bad news.

Bad news first: Bacon Prices Expected To Surge This Summer

The reason for surging bacon prices is that hog farmers have pared their herds due to high feed costs after corn prices hit a record near $8 a bushel last month. Retail bacon prices hit $4.77 a pound in May, according to the Labor Department, and Rich Nelson, director of research at Allendale, told Reuters that it could reach near $6 a pound in the next few months.

And the good news: Alcohol Doesn't Really Kill Brain Cells

It just interferes with forming memories. According to researchers in the latest issue of The Journal of Neuroscience:

“Alcohol isn’t damaging the cells in any way that we can detect,” senior investigator Charles F. Zorumski told ScienceBlog. “As a matter of fact, even at the high levels we used [in their experiment], we don’t see any changes in how the brain cells communicate. You still process information. You’re not anesthetized. You haven’t passed out. But you’re not forming new memories.”

Posted by: Maetenloch at 05:58 PM | Comments (693)
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Hahn's Mother Just Died Today. But don't throw in the towel -- not a lot of public politicking was going to happen tonight, anyway. I hear it's closer than advertised.

And see Turn Right for why this matters.

...

If you're a resident of California District 36, not only should you vote, you should call friends to get them to vote for Craig Huey.

He doesn't give taxpayer money to convicted killers and rapists.

Can Huey win? Hahn is ahead by eight points-- which is narrow enough a lead that Huey can win, if Republicans turn out.

Los Angeles Councilwoman Janice Hahn leads Craig Huey by 8 percentage points on the eve of their Southern California special House election, according to a Public Policy Polling survey taken for Daily Kos & the SEIU.

Hahn, the Democrat, takes 52 percent of the vote to Huey's 44 percent, with just 4 percent undecided.

Despite a barrage of attacks launched from both sides, Hahn's approval rating is just 6 percentage points higher than Huey's, 48 percent to 42 percent.

President Barack Obama's approval rating of 44 percent is just 2 percentage points higher than Huey's in the traditionally blue district.

Obama's polling two points better than Huey? This smells of major opportunity.

By the way, that''s good movement for Huey. A week ago I saw a poll that had it 52-36 Hahn.

This could really be one where we sneak up behind them and then jump Susan Feinberg ugly all over them.

If you know any inconsistent voters who might vote Republican under the right circumstances, send 'em this.

If you like imperious politicians, you'll love Janice Hahn. She actually sent a tv news station a cease and desist letter threatening legal action if they reported truthfully about her involvement in sending millions in taxpayer money to gangsters.

She also got her favorite gangstas sprung from jail after committing new crimes. Sort of a public service, in her mind.

If the person you have in mind is military or military-friendly, maybe follow that up with this: a WWII vet is blasting Hahn for sending out a mailer in which she strongly implied he was endorsing Hahn.

He wasn't. And he's pissed off at having his war record used to boost this gangsta moll's turnout.

Craig Huey for Congress is reporting that a last minute mailer from Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn in the campaign for the 36th congressional district has drawn a stinging rebuke from a representative for 93 year old World War II POW Louis Zamperini of Torrance. The mailer used photos from Zamperini's recent book and website and implied an endorsement from Zamperini, in spite of the fact that Hahn had been warned in advance not to use the photos or embroil the WWII hero in her political campaign.

"The Hahn campaign has been told repeatedly, both verbally and via email, that Louis Zamperini does not wish to endorse Janice Hahn's campaign for Congress, and does not approve the use of Mr. Zamperini's name or likeness," said John Naber, Assistant to Mr. Zamperini. "The Hahn campaign did not have permission from Mr. Zamperini for the recent mailing using photos from his book and website."

That smells like desperation on Hahn's part, and Hahn's smell is very stanky to begin with.

Oh! There's still time to volunteer -- calling voters, even driving people to the polling stations. Call Huey!

more...

Posted by: Ace at 03:28 PM | Comments (355)
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Luke Cage has possibilities. He's just a super-strong, invulnerable guy, but he's black, and was created in the 70s, so he's got a Superfly kind of edge. Well, edge for a child's comic book, at least.

Then this earthy Brown Version of The Thing was paired with Iron Fist, a Fortune-cookie-wisdom-spouting ascetic. Just a good mismatched buddy movie project there.

And no big special effects, really. They just punch people. Actually I'm looking for that in a superhero movie. I'm sort of tired of rainbow-colored energy bolts and tricksy magical powers. What happened to the old standby-- just hitting someone really, really, really hard?

Anyway, the Old Spice Guy really wants to play Luke Cage so he filmed a trailer of himself being Luke Cage. more...

Posted by: Ace at 02:39 PM | Comments (56)
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Great.

There have been some rumbles about Italy for a while. Italy's budget deficits are relatively modest compared to, say, Ireland, but their debt is about 120% of GDP. The government has passed a plan that will balance the budget by 2014, but as with most such plans, most of the cutting comes later, while the current cuts are small. This may well be sensible fiscal policy, given the current economic climate, but it is not reassuring to the markets. Mike Shedlock estimates that Italy needs to borrow about €356 billion ($500 billion) in 2011 to cover its deficit, and roll over outstanding debt. Their 10-years are now trading at something north of 5%. Most of the estimates I've seen say that a debt death spiral becomes likely when rates hit somewhere between 6-7%, because the debt service costs start blowing up the budget deficits.

It gets worse. As a chart of the interlinked banks of Europe, the US, and Japan shows there, if one domino goes, it starts knocking over other dominoes.

Posted by: Ace at 02:32 PM | Comments (98)
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