"It's now your responsibility."

Christie has suspended rescue and evacuation efforts as the storm is now hitting and it's dark -- he can't send rescuers in to themselves die. So he's now advising people to "hunker down" in the highest part of whatever dwelling they're in.

I imagine the casinos can, and will be compelled to (morally and probably legally too) to open up their hotels to people still in Atlantic City.

Posted by: Ace at 03:00 PM | Comments (172)
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Or else they will create awesome costumes like these.

Awesome, yes. But a toddler with an Alien chest-burster? A toddler as the Alien chest-burster?

(Question: Where is the "Baby as Kuato from Total Recall?" I wonder.)

Too awesome for some. Scandalously awesome. So awesome it threatens the social order.

Via @benk84.

Posted by: Ace at 02:41 PM | Comments (68)
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Interesting video by Rebel Pundit at Breitbart.

The video made me think of the Bradley Effect, which is usually thought of as whites falsely claiming they will vote for a black candidate, thus inflating the black candidate's standing in the polls, as compared to actual votes.

I'm wondering if there isn't a black Bradley Effect in play at the moment.

Blacks support Obama -- they say -- by 92-8. That makes sense, as blacks generally vote for Democrats by 90-10 or, at worse, 88-12. With a black president on the ballot, 92-8 seems pretty likely.

Except... except for the fact of Obama's record, which is generally miserable, and specifically miserable when it comes to soaring black unemployment and rising black poverty rates.

Plus, some progressive social policy adventurism, which is generally unpopular in the black community.

Now, the Bradley Effect posits that there is a "socially preferred" answer and, people being people, they offer the socially preferred answer -- sure, I'm voting for the black candidate -- in higher rates than they actually vote for that candidate. The voting booth makes no judgments, whereas in the usual sort of poll you're on the phone with a human being, who might.

It seems likely to me that within the black community there is an even stronger social preference to stating that one is supporting the first black president.

And so the polls might overstate Obama's support among blacks. Given the very high passions of some blacks about this -- Stacy Dash was vilified with the worst sort of racist and sexualized insults -- it just might be that more blacks are voting for Romney than are willing to say so aloud.

Now blacks only make up 12% of the population, and even a robust Bradley effect would only account for a 5% swing within that 12%; so we're not talking about large numbers of votes here.

Still, in a tight election, in a state like Pennsylvania... who knows.

Posted by: Ace at 01:59 PM | Comments (206)
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Withdrawn Due to Recanting: See the update. Woods has recanted claims of a beating to police, which means, I'm guessing, it didn't happen, so the texts are looking likely fake.

Unbelievable.

The details of the stating situation are a bit unconventional:

Chad Lee is a Republican running for the open seat in Wisconsin's second congressional district. Kyle Wood is a full-time volunteer working for his election. Kyle is openly gay and was targeted in what appears to be a politically motivated attack last week. Mark Pocan is the Democrat who is running for the open seat. Pocan is gay and campaigns with his husband Philip Frank.

A text just before the attack tells Woods (the victim) he's a "marked man:"

Today it emerged that Mr. Frank allegedly sent a series of crude text messages to Kyle Wood prior to the attack, one of which reads, "From here on out youÂ’re a marked man Kyle Wood, and you have no one to blame but yourself."

Here are some of the threatening/crude/racist texts the Democratic candidate's husband sent:

PF (Pocan's husband): You know you could just concede defeat and take the weekend off working out your frustrations in a fun way. You, me, some Iron Horse, a little gun oil and a couple knots I learned in boy scouts. 9:14 AM

KW [Beating Victim]: Phil, just stop. 9:15 AM

PF: DonÂ’t pretend you dont want a piece of this ass. Its alot more fun than working yourself to death for a hopeless cause that will make you even less likeable. 9:17 AM

PF: Just take the day off of this totally unwinnable race and lets mess around. 9:20 AM

He means have sex. Classy.

...

PF: Fuck you Kyle. Remember your station in life and remember not to cross the husband of a powerful man. You are on shaky footing as it is, push much farther and you wonÂ’t have a future in this town, or any other. YouÂ’ll go back to pig farming where you belong. 10:28 AM

Chad Lee (the Republican candidate) has a Mexican-American wife. Philip Frank decides to trade in some crude Mexican-bashing:

PF: Shopping around for TV time, are we? Did Chad finally pull an Indecent Proposal with that tight little wetback of his for a quick buck? 5:07 PM

PF: Or did that big amazon bitch with the hair blow someone higher upÂ… Paul Ryan maybe? He has some cash. Whats the secret. 5:12 PM

PF: We were brainstorming for you here at our office last night trying to help you guys out just to make this race interesting. And we were thinking since you canÂ’t afford useful tv time, maybe his ugly chola hooker wife has some illegal friends that could stand on corners and wave signs like Little Caesars. 10:29 AM

No media coverage, of course.

Thanks to HeatherRadish.

Posted by: Ace at 01:01 PM | Comments (221)
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Swell.

The U.S. Labor Department on Monday said it hasnÂ’t made a decision yet on whether to delay FridayÂ’s October jobs report, the final reading on the labor market before next weekÂ’s federal elections.

A Labor official said the agency will assess the schedule for all its data releases this week when the “weather emergency” is over.

Political emergency, they mean.

Ed notes the data is already collected:

Just to remind everyone, the national monthly jobs reports are not collated from the states. They are compiled from two surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Establishment Survey (businesses) and the Household Survey. Those have already been conducted by this time in the month, and the data is being collated and analyzed for FridayÂ’s report

So, will the numbers be good? Former Administration economist Austin Goolsbee just said that last month's report was too "optimistic," thus suggesting a coming correction.

A correction not in Obama's favor.

Posted by: Ace at 12:44 PM | Comments (149)
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I was listening to a BloggingHeads debate between Ann Althouse and the man who I think may be, pound per pound, the most annoying man alive, Robert Wright.

Wright renewed the "altitude" theory of Obama's Denver Debacle. Althouse makes a point I hadn't previously heard: near the end of the segment, she notes that Obama's in planes all the time. Planes have thin air, too. So why is he so sensitive to thin air?

Wright countered that planes were pressurized (of course) but Althouse rejoined that she didn't think that planes were pressurized to sea-level pressure.

Althouse is right: high-flying planes are typically pressurized to the pressure you'd find at 7,000 feet. So Denver's 5,000 foot elevation isn't anything that the average person doesn't experience on a semi-regular basis. The President, of course, experiences it two or four times a week. (Or, often: six or eight or ten times a week.)

Thinking about it, this should have been obvious: If the plane maintained sea-level pressure throughout its flight, your ears should never pop. But of course they do.

Or Even Lower: Spongebob says they often keep the pressure at even lower levels, simulating 8,000 feet or higher.

Posted by: Ace at 12:26 PM | Comments (151)
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I just wanted to see one poll with Romney up. We've got that now.

At Hot Air's Green Room, Duane Patterson posts a snippet of an interview with one of the crew at Real Clear Politics. Based on Obama's low numbers -- he may be "ahead," but he's stuck at 47-48% -- he says "edge to Romney."

And then you get a dynamic so itÂ’s like the PresidentÂ’s at 48% in Ohio. But if heÂ’s at 48% on the ballot test, and heÂ’s only up a point in the average? That almost, the edge almost leans to Romney at that matter, because the undecideds are probably going to break, you know, theyÂ’re not, itÂ’s very unlikely theyÂ’re going to break for the President. So I think with the fact that the state polls lag the national polls, so I think OhioÂ’s actually closer than two points right now. And you give, you know, the PresidentÂ’s not at 50%. HeÂ’s at 48%. I would give, right now, the slight edge to Romney in Ohio.

Rasmussen's latest poll only has 1% undecided (one percent!), so in that poll, it appears the undecideds have broken already, to the extent they're going to break. (1% favors a third party candidate.)

Michael Barone, who's forgotten more about polls than most people have ever known*, predicts a Romney win.

Flynn at Breitbart notes that Romney continues to lead on what we think should be the decisive issues in this election -- economy, jobs, deficit.

Nationally, Gallup again has Romney out front 51-46 again, and the Politico/GWU battleground poll -- while putting Obama up a single point (at 49), says its actual model predicts a 52-47 win for Romney.

or the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, ObamaÂ’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).

Politico, by the way, chose to only report the 49-48 (Obama lead) figure. Weekly Standard notes this:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

I got a little worried. I wanted either a bunch of polls showing Romney ahead by 5 nationally, or a poll showing Romney ahead in Ohio. I'm feeling less worried today.

Gallup's Party ID poll might hint at a landslide -- the current figures are R+1. Democrats 35%, Independents 29%, Republicans 36%.

R+1.

That would be pretty big. If that's right, it's over, and no amount of turnout or ground game can save Obama. Romney draws more Democrats than Obama draws Republicans, and Independents favor Romney by double digits, and the national ID figure is R+1? If all those things are true, game over.

If.

* I always wonder about that form of a compliment. It seems to be saying the guy you intend to compliment is forgetful or something.

Posted by: Ace at 11:38 AM | Comments (328)
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A guy in DC tweeted that a news crew was down on his street, covering the hurricane. He tweeted (paraphrased) "Hey maybe I'll put on a horsehead mask and swimming trunks and run out in the rain and see if I can get on TV."

It would just be a typical dumb Twitter nonsequitor except he did it.

Here's the guy back at home, reviewing his "victory." This is where he begins to play games with my mind:

Creepy, right?

So many questions. So many questions I don't want to ask.

Stunt aside, I hope everyone in the storm's path has relocated to higher ground. It's looking grim.

Via Curbed, thanks to The Lopper.

Unrelated, But Also Strange: A woman claims she was "raised by monkeys" and then later caught by hunters sold into sexual slavery in Cucuta (a Columbian city), only to be saved by a family which adopted her.

I don't think I buy this at all but "raised by monkeys" gets an automatic link.

An extraordinary story slowly emerged: Marina had been abducted as a small child, then abandoned in the jungle where she lived alongside colonies of monkeys, foraging for food and sheltering in trees.

Even after she was found by hunters and brought into Cúcuta, her ordeal continued. She initially lived rough in a park with other homeless children. She was then taken in by an abusive family who treated her like a slave.

But her odyssey did not end with her adoption by NancyÂ’s family. For the little girl up the mango tree is now Marina Chapman, a Yorkshire housewife, married to a church organist, mother and grandmother, volunteer and enthusiastic cook of South American cuisine.

Posted by: Ace at 10:45 AM | Comments (302)
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He intends exactly what he campaigned for in 2008: A "transformation" of America, with a leftist coalition governing without regard to the center (or of course the right).

We heard a lot about a left-leaning electoral realignment in 2008. That talk seemed to stop after the tea-party shellacking of 2010. Yet the truth is, Obama and his advisors never abandoned their quest to shape a permanent leftist majority, a coalition that would forever put an end to Clintonian triangulation and usher in unfettered leftist Obamaism instead. Obama’s frantic efforts to gin up the women’s vote and the youth vote aren’t only desperate attempts to secure his base. They flow from a deliberate decision not to fight for the center, but to build an independent majority on what is supposedly the “demographically ascendent” left…

And the New Democratic Party is not much like the Old Democratic Party. The old party was at least a party of unions -- practical-minded people. Obama has reshaped the Democratic Party into his own image -- an antiwar intellectual semi-professor. The New Democratic Party is the Nation magazine with candidates.

Read The Obamians by James Mann and you discover that the Obama team came in thinking United States foreign policy could be fixed simply by doing the opposite of whatever Bush had done. What they found instead is that BushÂ’s policies are difficult to overturn because they are not as unreasonable or as superfluous as his opponents had thought. There is a resurgent global jihadist movement bent on killing Americans. Russia is belligerent not because Bush was rude but because PutinÂ’s interests are not our own....

It turns out the people who supposedly knew better did not, actually, know better....

The Obama coalition, piece by piece, has been disassembled. All that remains is the antiwar, anti-Republican core of the Democratic Party. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans, so Obama could still squeak out a second term. But he has forsaken independents and whites, the groups that swung to him definitively and significantly in 2008. He is losing independents, in some polls by double-digits. His opponent Mitt Romney is “winning the white vote by more than any GOP candidate since Ronald Reagan,” according to the Washington Post. If the 2012 electorate resembles the 2008 one, it is possible for Obama to win reelection. But if the electorate turns out to be more like the electorate in 2004 or, God help him, like in 2010, Obama will lose.

Even a narrow win for Obama, though, would not reestablish anything like the mandate and amity the president enjoyed on his Inauguration Day. The reason is that, as the Obama coalition diminished, Obama no longer disguised the prejudices, inflections, outlook, and approach of the progressive movement....

The Democrats allowed the progressive movementÂ’s hatred of Bush to take over their old and storied political party. That party and movement found a champion and a path to power in Obama, but the electoral forces on which his power relied were unstable. In 2008, he satisfied the left and won the middle. Once in power, though, he kept the left satisfied and lost the middle and right.

In 2012, there is just the left. The Democrats are back where they started eight years ago. And this time, Barack Obama cannot save them.

Really good pieces. On that last one, it's just a Read the Whole Thing deal. I couldn't find the excerpts that really sold it. But it's great.

Posted by: Ace at 10:15 AM | Comments (211)
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Three of the papers endorsed Obama in 2008. The Register hasn't endorsed a Republican for President in 40 years.

Poor Stephanie Cutter was left sputtering that the Des Moines Register's endorsement was not "based in reality." She basically argues the Register has come down with a bad case of Romnesia-- an affliction that's sweeping the state.

Romney is behind in the RCP average of Iowa polls, but they've seemed to be confident about the state. Throwing in endorsements from all six of the state's biggest papers -- three of which endorsed Obama in 2008 -- I have to think Iowa is now in our column.

Posted by: Ace at 09:44 AM | Comments (188)
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