Early voting and absentees have been stressed by both campaigns, and lauded as a show of real strength.

Currently, 54,000 early votes have been cast in Dane. 52,000 in Waukesha (a county that has 100,000 fewer residents). The combined Republican WOW (Waukesha-Ozaukee-Washington) early vote is 1500 shy of Milwaukee's impressive 80k.**

Numbers numbers numbers, you say. What the hell does it all mean?

Well, remember back in June during the recall when the Democrats were boasting about their great GOTV, their drive to get voters out and early?
When someone pointed out then that Waukesha was only 2k shy of Dane's total for early, they said it meant nothing.

After the election, many observers, including the always snarky Dave Weigel, noted there was an obvious drop in the Democratic vote statewide, thanks to the recall being held in June- when a particular bloc in Madison isn't around.

Thats fair.

So, explain why the gap is 2k again- Dane over Waukesha - if the GOTV ops by OfA targeting these college students is supposed to be so impressive. I suspect the same people who were going to deliver Barrett a victory are now responsible for doing the same for the President.

If that is the case, I like Romney's chances even more.

**numbers from the GAB website GAB.WI.GOV more...

Posted by: CAC at 01:10 PM | Comments (169)
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Narrowly as you can possibly win it.

Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and - most startlingly - Pennsylvania.

But behind in Nevada. But then, Nevada has been looking like a No Go for a while.

Harry Reid's machine -- fueled by unions and illegal aliens working as get out the vote staffers -- might just be too much for any ethical campaign to overcome.

Posted by: Ace at 12:01 PM | Comments (563)
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Lake County in Ohio tends to predict the statewide vote of Ohio pretty darn well.

As do a pair of towns, Epping and Milford, in New Hampshire.

The polls predict Romney wins.

In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted.

Duncan is a local candidate who isn't playing in the state generally. Unfortunately for our purposes he's a leftwing candidate. So, taking his votes away and giving them to Obama... it's a 47-47 tie in the state. (Assuming Duncan does not play much outside of Lake county.)

I wish there was time to start pushing Richard Duncan to Ohio liberals. Alas, a bit late for that.

Still. I think the "refused a response" people are more Romney than Obama. People know who the media and institutions want them to vote for.

What do I base this on? John Kerry's seven hour presidency in 2004. Exit polls showed him well ahead... but actual votes showed him losing. The most commonly given reason for this is the "Shy Tory" effect -- Tories, and American conservatives, understand all too well that their preferences are strongly disfavored by the institutions which transmit "mainstream" opinion (mainstream, that is, according to the institutions' own liberal lights), and are simply not as willing to publicly declare for the conservative as liberals are wiling to collect up their Social Credits for declaring for Obama.

As a general matter, I'm thinking "refused to answer" means "voting for Romney," by a 3-1 margin.

When you see, say, the FoxNews poll "split" at 46-46, you have to wonder if that 8% is truly undecided, or if they just don't want to share their opinion with a poll interviewer. Or if they're embarrassed, say, by their 2008 vote, and it's a bit of a sore point with them.

Many undecideds won't vote, but many will vote. Despite the fact that the Incumbent rule has loads of exceptions, I have to think in this election, it holds, and probably pretty strongly.

Look at all the reasons people would be more comfortable saying they're voting for Obama:

1. He's black, so if you vote for him, you're Not Racist. If you say you vote for Romney, you are Racist Until Proven Otherwise (and voting for Obama would be the proof you're looking for).

2. The media and smart set strongly favors him and are willing, ready, and eager to tell you how backwards the "bitter clingers" not voting for him are. As Andrew Breitbart was always arguing, the media have ginned up pure straight hatred of Tea Partiers and conservative-leaning voters.

They're not dumb. They feel the hate, and, being human, react to it. Defensively. By, say, not being very willing to discuss their vote.

3. Dave Chappelle. CONTENT WARNING (but funny): "White people do not like talking about their political affiliations." Actually I guess this is the same as 1 and 2, but Chappelle puts it in a funny way.

I mean, try to figure it from the other angle: Can anyone think of any reasons why an Obama leaner would be shy about proclaiming his inclination? I suppose their might be some embarrassment about supporting an incompetent, but... that seems to cut badly against Obama, too.

Meanwhile, in Epping and Milford, New Hampshire:

In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.

Andrea Mitchell: "If Pennsylvania is in Play, Obviously This Is All Over For the President." Well, it is in play. Whether or not Romney wins it is a separate question.

Democrats say they expect to win Pennsylvania by bigger margins than Minnesota. Which makes me really wish Romney and Ryan (or just Ryan) would take a trip over to Minnesota tonight and lay down a marker there.

Posted by: Ace at 11:48 AM | Comments (136)
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Before you think "Is he desperate?" (which is what some people say at first blush), let me say I'm enthusiastic about this. Romney is a leave-nothing-in-the-gas-tank kind of guy, and I appreciate the fight until the very end.

Also, Obama campaigned in Indiana on Election Day 2008.

There's no tea leaves here -- except that Romney has an admirable work ethic and isn't looking to knock off early.

I also find it heartening that his last push for votes is in Pennsylvania. And Democrat stronghold Cleveland.

I think @conartcritic was making this point a couple of weeks ago, but with respect to Republican voters in Madison and Dane county in Wisconsin. Obviously you want to turn out the red vote in red areas, in a close election, it's also imperative to turn out the red vote in blue areas. After all, their votes count just as much. You won't win Cleveland, but if you rack up a lot of Republicans in Cleveland who might otherwise not have voted -- figuring "I'm alone in a sea of blue" -- that will of course add to your statewide tallies.

I don't know why anyone would say this a negative indicator. Romney obviously thinks he can win Pennsylvania, and Ohio, or else he wouldn't be there.

My only complaint is that he's not also going to Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Posted by: Ace at 11:26 AM | Comments (222)
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I gotta assume this was already posted. But I just saw it.

Via This guy's channel. more...

Posted by: Ace at 11:06 AM | Comments (163)
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Tied with D+11??!?!

There's another word for "Tied with D+11."

That word is "Not Tied."

Why Are There Such Huge Democratic Samples? One thing that happens is that pollsters do in fact weight for age, ethnicity, and gender.

Young people don't respond to polls as much. They take the handful of young respondents they get and weight them heavily, to make up for their underrepresentation in the respondent pool. Same with minorities.

But this ends up skewing partisan lean. Which they don't weight for.

One doesn't have to be crazy to assume that young Obama voters are more likely to break this rule and answer poll-calls more often than the average young person. Who might not be voting, or might be voting for Romney, but doesn't expect a Social Credit for doing so and so is less eager to talk to a pollster.

Posted by: Ace at 10:33 AM | Comments (289)
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He's not endorsing Romney... exactly.

Oh: Springsteen draws 50,000 fewer in Madison than he drew in 2004 with John Kerry.

Posted by: Ace at 10:21 AM | Comments (89)
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Alas, this of course shows a market erosion of Romney's 5 point lead.

But a lead's a lead.

There are no details yet because this is a pre-release leak of the topline results, which were supposed to be released at 1 pm but aren't out yet.

If I had any influence with anyone running ads, I'd cut a quick ad showing Obama jetting off to Vegas after Benghazi, followed by Obama jetting off to Vegas (or whichever city) after his New Jersey photo-op.

And I'd run some footage of the desperation in New Jersey, Lower Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island.

I guess the question comes down to: If the polls are tied, is it likelier they are understating the liberal Democrat incumbent's support, or that they are understating the conservative Republican challenger's support? I think the latter. There is no social preference to say you support Romney, and quite a bit to pick up the phone and blab that you're Still Not a Racist, which you are proving by voting for the incompetent.

It also comes down to turnout. If you haven't volunteered yet to phone from home or, even better, walk some neighborhoods or do strike lists at the polling places*, there is still time.

It's all going to come down to mobilization and enthusiasm.

Via @benk84.

* Strike Lists, Ben tells me, are just lists of Republican voters who have voted. You collect the list, and relay it back to headquarters. That way, the campaign knows whose door to knock on and ask, "Dude, are you going to get your ass to the polls or not?" It's critical election day intelligence.

Posted by: Ace at 08:58 AM | Comments (382)
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Hanby claimed:

@PeterHambyCNN: Dems in Ohio blowing up early vote in blue counties Cuyahoga, Lucas, Franklin. GOP anxiety

Blowing up?

Two days before the last election, nearly 50,000 people voted in Democratic stronghold Cuyahoga (Cleveland).

Two days before this one, 42,511 did.

That's a Democratic stronghold. And early voting is down.

Where is the evidence that Obama is going to win this by turnout exceeding 2008's?

Richard Grennell answered Hamby: You clearly only have Democratic sources.

Thanks to @slublog and @moelane.

Posted by: Ace at 08:44 AM | Comments (117)
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Bob Krumm writes a column as a retrospective, from after the election, looking back at all the reasons why Romney won -- and why this outcome should not have taken people by surprise.

It's good.

Like everyone is now saying, someone is going to be shocked on election night. Following the shock, everyone will say, "Of course, it was so obvious."

If Obama wins, the obvious thing will be that he led in most swing-state polls. Of course he won.

But if Romney wins, it will also be an of course situation -- good Lord, he was winning independents by twenty-two (!!!) hot damn points. Good Lord, the fundamentals were always against him -- no president has been reelected with a huge 7.9% unemployment rate (and the real rate is quite a bit higher than that, at 18% or so).

Good Lord, was he really thinking he could overcome these hurdles by ginning up enthusiasm among young voters (who are not in fact enthusiastic) and black voters (who are suffering an outright depression in black employment?)

Oh: He lays out five different scenarios, one of which is "Nate Silver Is right" (Obama wins) and "The RCP average is right" (Obama wins, very narrowly).

Other scenarios feature Romney winning.

Posted by: Ace at 08:00 AM | Comments (317)
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