Over Romney, the most generic Republican.

Mr. Obama, if measured on the same basis in 2008, would have come out as a 57. However, note that the model does not consider the incumbentÂ’s ideology rating because concerns that voters have about it should already be priced into his approval rating, which the model does evaluate.

If G.D.P. grows at 2.5 percent from now through November — that is the current consensus forecast in the Wall Street Journal panel of economists — Mr. Obama would be a 60 percent favorite to win the popular vote against Mr. Romney, and a 77 percent favorite against Mr. Santorum.

The GDP is now projected to be 2.5% through November? That's news to me.

But there you go. Nate Silver assumes, as I do, that candidates closer to the center will do somewhat better in the general (hence the old "run to the center" maxim after the convention), but I know a lot of people insist this is false.

But... Now Gallup has him suddenly losing five points, down to 43 again?

Posted by: Ace at 01:22 PM | Comments (271)
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Who the hell else would be the victim at an Occupy Camp?

First, Olbermann and Kos laughed off the rapes at Occupy.

By the way, holy frick, Breitbart goes wild in that clip. That must have been after we both did three lines of cocaine off the shaven chest of a 15 year old Guatamalan boywhore named "Snacky-Pants."

Kos remembers. He was there.

So anyway, after Bathtub Boy and, um... what can I call Kos that he hasn't been called before?

So, Bathtub Boy and, um, Captain Vaginal Sex, I guess would best describe him there, claim there were no rapes, and laugh off the very idea of rape, Lee Stranahan sent over a list of the rapes.

Rapes & Various Sexual Crimes – 10/16 – 11/19 2011

Madison, WI: 10-27-2011 — Madison Occupiers Lose Permit Due to Public Masturbation

Cleveland: 10/18/2011 — ‘Occupy Cleveland’ Protester Alleges She Was Raped

Seattle: 10/18/2011 — Man Accused of Exposing Self to Children Arrested

Cleveland: 10/29/2011 — Rape Reported at Occupy Cleveland

Dallas: 10/24/2011 — Police Investigating Possible Sexual Assault Of Teen At Occupy Dallas

Portland: 10/16/2011 — Sex Offender Registers Occupy Portland Camp as Address

Lawrence, KS: 10/25/2011 — Sexual Assault Reported at Occupy Camp
Glasgow: 10/26/2011 — Woman Gang-Raped

Manchester, NH: 10/28/2011 — Woman charged with pimping teen recruited at Occupy NH rally

NY: 10/30/2011 — Woman Assaulted in Her tent

NYC: 11/3/2011 — Occupier Busted In Tent Grope, Suspected In Rape

Chula Vista, CA: 11/6/2011 — Underage Girl Missing From Occupy Protests

Philadelphia, PA: 11/13/2011 — Occupier Arrested for Rape

Austin, TX: 11/15/2011 — Occupier Accused of Masturbating in Front of 16 Year-old Girl

Chicago, IL: 11/16/2011 — Occupier Arrested for Child Porn

St. Louis, MO: 11/18/2011 — Woman Sexually Assaulted

NYC: 11/19/2011 — Occupier Arrested for Forcibly Touching Woman

Oh and there are reports of Occupy covering this stuff up, so this is just the stuff where they didn't get assaulted girls to remain silent.

Now after that, Keith decided he'd better "debunk" this rightwing slander.

Oh by the way...? Notice how perfect his media cocooning was. He never heard about this stuff. The MSM refused to cover it, and of course none of his leftwing blogs covered it, so he was, as usual, in a state of perfect ignorance about actual facts.

I won't link Olbermann's "debunking," because most of it is here, where Lee Stranahan debunks the debunking.

Basically Keith Olbermann weasels away from his earlier claim of "No rapes, no apologies," to a modified limited hangout where maybe there are some rapes, but for various reasons, they don't count.

A big one is the claim that he's not sure if the perpetrators were themselves Occupiers.

Basically he's claiming if seedy, lower-class dregs showed up to these things, they don't count, because they're not the nice upper middle class private-college white kids who controlled the events.

Of course he doesn't admit that he's wrong, despite the fact there are some rapes here.

Finally, Media Bistro weighs in and pronounces Keith Olbermann a clown.

When Al Gore hired Keith Olbermann to anchor his primetime line-up, he knew he was getting a bomb-thrower more than a newsman. Just how much more, he might not have known.

On Monday, Current’s Chief News Officer created an uproar when he and guest Markos Moulitsas joked about alleged rapes at Occupy Wall Street protests. This is always a dumb move. He later doubled-down on the stupid when he tweeted “No Occupy rapes, no cover-up, no apology, no retraction…” and accused BigGov’s Andrew Breitbart of creating the whole thing in an attempt to discredit the protests.

...

In his “debunking,” Olbermann changed his tune from “No Occupy rapes” to “Because almost none of the allegations are of rape and most of this list are duplicated…” to “2 stories duplicated” to “Occupy MEMBERS were victims.” That’s quite a journey in just one day, especially without ever acknowledging his position completely changed.

Even still, where he ended up, that the victims and not the perpetrators were the only Occupy people involved in these rapes and sexual assaults, isn’t the truth. After Olbermann’s “debunking, Stranahan was back a few hours later with a section by section debunking of what Olbermann said. Keith then went silent, maybe to bed, maybe to play with his baseball cards, or maybe to Stuart Smalley in the mirror to calm his nerves.

In semi-related news, Media Matters can't rebut any of the facts reported by the Daily Caller.

All they can say is that the sources are "anonymous" (but no claim they're inaccurate) and I Question the Timing.

I question the timing too. This should have been done two years ago.

Posted by: Ace at 11:18 AM | Comments (377)
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Monty's got a big Doom post for tomorrow [since posted], and while I don't have anything to add to it per se, I have a related thought.

I grew up on the East Coast. For a while, I lived in California.

I was blown away to learn that people could just start bonfires on the beach, whenever they liked.

Now, to be honest, I learned on this when the government was trying to crack down on the practice, but I was blown away at the idea that a private citizen could, in this country, previous to changes in this law at least, simply create a bonfire on the beach and enjoy it. Just because he wanted to.

Then I started to think like this: What kind of a mind-screw did they do on me when I should be surprised that people would be allowed to do this?

You see what I mean? My default mental state, thanks to the more statist area I grew up in (at least as far as bonfires) was that of course I wasn't permitted by The State to build a bonfire and enjoy it.

I internalized that. My default belief, absent any external stimulus, was that of course that would be an Illegal Act, and of course I should not Break the Law.

And this is where I begin to get angry:

How much of each of our current mental landscapes are shaped by government such that we internalize the idea that the basic right to be left alone (presuming you're not destroying other's property) doesn't exist?

How much of we come to accept such restrictions as "just normal"?

If you try to open a shop, how many licenses and inspections and certificates do you need?

And we all of course accept that. Of course we cannot perform a lawful trade without first securing the go-ahead of a half-dozen bureaucratic agencies.

I mean, that's just normal, right? That's just how it is, right?

Sixty years ago, would we have thought that was normal?

Or would we have said, "I'm sorry, are you attempting to tell me I cannot pursue a lawful trade without your... permission that I do so?!"

To what extent have we internalized that the "normal" situation of our life is to be unfree, to the extent that a simple pleasure, like building a bonfire on a beach and (get this!) drinking wine while watching it burn, seems like a bizarre indulgence of a malfunctioning anarchy?

I'm angry that someone put into my head the reflexive thought: Of course you mustn't do that; you aren't Allowed.

And once you've accepted that basic regime of requiring permission and licensing to do most everything in your life-- that makes it quite easy for the state to simply begin forbidding you to do whole categories of things altogether.

After all, you've accepted you need a license to do this or that, and that license can only come from the government. And if the government then refuses-- well, it's up them, isn't it? They have the right to deny you, right?

But did they?

When did they accumulate this power?

Just over the course of long decades, as a result of a thousand laws passed For the Public Good, and millions of decisions that it just wasn't worth fighting over.

Posted by: Ace at 10:05 AM | Comments (549)
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Drudge gives this the red font which I assume means 1) this is aggressive non-diplomatic language that suggests a shift to warplanning or 2) it's a slow news day and Drudge needed a Slammer on his front page.

I don't know myself.

While in Nicosia, Netanyahu also addressed the Iranian nuclear threat, saying the sanctions imposed by the international community on the Islamic Republic "are not working."

"Iran is the most irresponsible force in the world. I hope the sanctions will have an effect, but so far they have not. We are dealing with a regime that violates every resolution and has no respect for international standards," the Israeli premier said.

"Iran's race towards nuclear weapons should concern the US and every other country. Nuclear arms in the hands of such a regime is a cause for great concern to the US and Israel."

I don't know. Netanyahu says this every few days. Is this something and I'm missing it?

(I expect there will be an attack. But I don't see how this adds to our information.)

Posted by: Ace at 09:24 AM | Comments (117)
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Well, we'll definitely take care of our secondary priority of beating Romney and defeating The Establishment.

Posted by: Ace at 08:40 AM | Comments (720)
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Streaming video here or here.

Let Nice Deb catch you up on her twitter feed; she's live-tweeting. (Start from lower posts and read up.)

Posted by: Ace at 08:10 AM | Comments (153)
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I agree.

I am actually pretty scared.

Posted by: Ace at 07:35 AM | Comments (260)
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Glenn Morton's running against Steny Hoyer in Maryland. Well, first he has to win a primary, but I imagine he will.

It seems unlikely he can beat Steny Hoyer in very-blue Prince George County, but he has an advantage: That county is mostly black, and he's black.

Who knows.

He's running one of those Ladd ads, the Turn the Ship Around one. But check out how he says he endorses this message. I think you'll really like it. more...

Posted by: Ace at 06:42 AM | Comments (127)
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Follow 'The Daily DOOM' on Twitter: @AoSHQDOOM.

[PSA: Today's post is in the form of an essay rather than a series of links. If you want to read the links, you can check my Twitter feed from yesterday.]

In response to my welfare-state rant from yesterday, Marc Eisner of Pileus did me the courtesy of writing a thoughtful response, so rather than abstract it here, I urge you to go read his piece in full before reading my rejoinder.

...all done? Great.

I think Mr. Eisner and I are about 90% simpatico on the question of entitlements and the welfare state in this country. In particular, I agree completely with this paragraph:

Ideally, reform would occur in a deliberate and reasoned manner. But if broad support for reform is difficult to create or maintain, an incremental path to reform will be politically impossible. Ultimately, fiscal crisis could open the door to changes that are far less compatible with liberty than one might hope. This too, is not difficult to imagine.

We do not live in an ideal world. Ideally, we would not be in the mess we're in right now. Ideally, we'd have an electorate that would understand the long-term harm their addition to welfare dollars is. Ideally, the government would stick to the functions proper to a government and leave the citizens to lead their own lives as they see fit. Ideally, no welfare state would be necessary because the citizens would recognize it for the untenable and liberty-sapping lie that it is.
more...

Posted by: Monty at 05:00 AM | Comments (269)
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You had me at "Brooke Hogan," but the 2 Headed Shark with 6000 teeth cinched it.

Yes, it's real.

Kind of. It exists. But it's... you know, it's not really real. Is it a real movie when the whole point is to essentially play a $500,000 practical joke?

This production company, The Asylum, has brought you such fare as Mega Shark, and then, of course, Mega Shark vs. Giant Octopus, and, because you demanded it, Mega Shark vs. Crocosaurus.

Because I'm just looking to break in to the business, and because I believe these guys will literally not turn down a single pitch, I offer, optimistically, my top twelve pitches for Asylum.

Fingers crossed.

Top Twelve Rejected Golden Movie Pitches For Asylum

12. Monkey Gun. A small-time crook discovers a high-tech gun which shoots Monkeys out of it. Monkey Gun.

11. The Haunting of Stacy's Bosom. Stacy's bosoms are haunted by restless Micmac Indian spirits. The Haunting of Stacy's Bosom.

10. Jenga. A vacationing family is menaced by a giant animated Jenga puzzle the size of a truck. "Don't pull the wrong block!" Jenga.

9. Murder Bucket. A man is possessed by the spirit of lethal bucket. Murder Bucket.

8. PK Rabbit. A gardener awakes from a coma to discover he has the psychic power to lift and throw rabbits with his mind. PK Rabbit.

7. Knucklehead. An evil cosmetic surgeon replaces his model ex-girlfriend's face with nothing but knuckles from medical cadavers. She gets revenge. Knucklehead.

6. Toilet Shark. Not what you think, but a whole new spin. It's a giant shark with a toilet for a head. Toilet Shark.

5. Johnny Flapjacks. A man recovers from a head injury and can see the future in the markings on pancakes. Johnny Flapjacks.

4. Hammersquid, A mad scientist and recreational carpenter creates a squid with hammers at the end of his tentacles. It hits people. Hammersquid.

3. Grizzled. A man receives a heart transplant from a grizzly bear. Horrified to discover he now craves honey, fish, and rape. Grizzled.

2. Spider Rain: Terror in New York City. It starts raining spiders in a Canadian city that sort of looks like New York. Spider Rain.

...and...

1. The Munge. A prostitute contracts a case of The Munge so bad, it kills her clients and transforms them into foul-smelling Munge-Zombies. The Munge.

Hammersquid by @Shikanominarazu, Spider Rain by @NYKensington.

The Two Headed Shark... Is Real? Or an internet goof. I don't know which.

From Tim Blair, via JWF, who notes that shark attacks are predicted to double. Because of global warming.

"You know who I was thinking...? Brooke Hogan."
"Brook Hogan? Oh, YES! She's great, she's great!!!"

Posted by: Ace at 04:18 AM | Comments (230)
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