I'm a Tea Party fan. I like the focus on fiscal issues that was absent from the last half of the Bush years. I like the idea of folks stirring from their apathy to get involved in stopping President Obama's runaway liberalism. It's a nice story. That feature in particular, the claim that they came out of the ranks of the formerly politically disengaged, has caught the imagination of many conservative pundits.

Professor Jacobson of Legal Insurrection is in that camp. He worries that the Tea Partiers will return to their political inactivity if Mitt Romney wins the nomination. Jacobson has some numbers about the Tea Partiers' origins and he's riffing on a column from GuestBlogger Ben Domenech, so click over and read it. I'll wait.

Okay, you back?

The problem is that this romantic idea that the Tea Partiers bestirred themselves from political disengagement to challenge fiscal insanity isn't very true even according to the numbers Jacobson cites. A majority, a slim one, were already at least "somewhat" politically active before the rise of the Tea Party. The Tea Party moniker just gave this group better PR than they had previously and they attracted a minority of folks who were previously "rarely" or never politically engaged. Jacobson calls this minority group of previously disengaged folks a "near majority." Heh.

This insistence by some conservative pundits (Jacobson isn't alone in this) that the previously-disengaged Tea Partiers will be so disillusioned if Romney becomes the nominee that they abandon politics seems to me to be another way of saying that inconsistent voters will behave inconsistently. I'm going to say that again so that it sinks in: inconsistent voters will behave inconsistently. Think of how we chuckle every time a Democrat (or Ron Paul) vows that "this time is the time" the youth vote is gonna totally materialize and save them. Yeah, no. Inconsistent voters are inconsistent.

Assuming for the sake of argument that it's even true that the Tea Partiers will return to apathy and let Obama be reelected if they have to accept Romney (I'm not sure there's anything other than anecdotes to support this assumption, but the anti-Romney folks really need it to be true, so let's proceed...), I'm not sure why such a fickle group of people should be catered to.

Obama is poised to reshape the United States, not just for the next few years, but for a generation. At least two, and probably three, and quite possibly four Supreme Court justices will be chosen by whoever wins the 2012 election. Think of what a liberal Supreme Court would have done in just the past few years. The Second Amendment would be treated only as a collective right (Heller and McDonald). Citizens could be prohibited from exercising their freedom of speech when they also exercise their freedom of association (Citizens United). Capital punishment would be unconstitutional (Roper and Kennedy dissents). The partial-birth abortion ban would be unconstitutional (Carhart). Private organizations couldn't exclude members they don't want (Boy Scouts of America). Now imagine what a liberal Supreme Court could during the next thirty years.

So that's the danger; Obama gets to fundamentally reshape the United States into a European- or maybe Canadian-flavored state. And it confuses me when Professor Jacobson suggests both that (1) the Tea Partiers are ready to disengage from politics; and (2) we should make policy and candidate choices based on the Tea Party's preferences. It seems to me that the first suggestion should rule out the second.

It's silly to say that inconsistent voters will be less inconsistent if only we cater to their every whim. It may be true. I doubt it, but it could be true. But there's no reason in the world that we should take such a risk. Not when the future of American exceptionalism is at stake.

If Jacobson wants to convince me that the Tea Party should get to choose our candidate, he should argue that the Tea Party can deliver success over Obama. Not that they'll stick their heads (back) in the ground if they don't get their way. Powerful voting blocs are not composed of people who are only a primary away from disengaging from politics. I want the people on my team to be committed to seeing this election through to the general election defeat of President Obama. Amazingly, the most consistent group of folks with that aim are the Romney supporters, among which I now (since my man Perry is out) count myself.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 03:34 AM | Comments (386)
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Happy Tuesday.

The payroll tax holiday negotiations seem poised to become another GOP bloodbath.

Ron Paul was reimbursed by both the federal taxpayers and his campaign for at least 8 trips and quite probably many more. He says it wasn't intentional.

The Ninth Circuit will issue its decision in the Prop 8 case today by 1pm Eastern. There are three issues: (1) should Judge Walker have recused himself; (2) if not, do the petitioners have standing to appeal; and (3) if so, whether Prop 8 violated the equal protection and due process guarantees in the U.S. Constitution. A good guide to the hubbub, in case you were in a coma for the past three years or something, is here.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:52 AM | Comments (94)
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De Facto Sharia Costs Dearborn, MI $100K

Due to its large Muslim population Dearborn, MI has become a hotbed of creeping de facto sharia. To the point that doing anything that offends local Muslims - even if it's 100% legal and Constitutional - will bring down official heat and harassment. In fact just handing out Christian fliers on public property is enough to get you detained and arrested as was covered on a previous ONT. Video of this incident is below the fold.

Was this a case of over-zealous police acting on their own? Nope, even the town's mayor was totally down with restricting anything he perceives as anti-Muslim.

"It's really about a hatred of Muslims," [Dearborn Mayor Jack] O'Reilly said. "That is what the whole heart of this is. ... Their idea is that there is no place for Muslims in America. They fail to understand the Constitution."

Well now after almost a year and a half the wheels of justice have slowly turned and a judge has finally ruled the arrests and restrictions to be unconstitutional and ordered Dearborn to pay $100K in fees:

A judge in Detroit has ruled that the decision by police in neighboring Dearborn to arrest a Christian pastor who wanted to hand out Christian tracts at the cityÂ’s Arab fest in 2009 will cost the city some $100,000.

ThatÂ’s the decision following a request from the pastorÂ’s attorneys that the losing side in the First Amendment argument over expressing religious perspectives on city streets be required to pay them for their work on behalf of Christian Pastor George Saieg.

Of course in a just and non-politicized country the US DOJ would get involved and stop Dearborn's ongoing civil rights violations of non-Muslims. But I guess we're not living there anymore. more...

Posted by: Maetenloch at 05:59 PM | Comments (622)
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Some are okay. Some are lame.

Here's one of the okay ones: more...

Posted by: Ace at 03:51 PM | Comments (145)
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To clarify: They can ask him very superficial things like "How great do you feel about the 243,000 jobs created last month?," but they can't ask further than that, because there the Narrative falls apart.

President Obama will benefit because the media will fail to note that the Obama administration promised that the unemployment rate today would be approximately 5.8 percent – not 8.3 percent — if the $800 billion stimulus package were passed.

He will benefit because interviewers like Lauer will fail to ask the president whether the unemployment rate will be below 5.5 percent — as promised – by Election Day.

He will benefit because commentators will ignore the fact that even if 250,000 jobs were created every month from now to the election, the unemployment rate will still hover near 8 percent.

He will benefit because no reporter will ask the president to explain why the labor participation rate has fallen to an abysmal 63.7 percent, the lowest level in three decades.

He will benefit because the media will continue to ignore the fact that if the the labor force participation rate were the same as when President Obama took office, todayÂ’s unemployment rate would be more than 11 percent.

And so on.

The Watchdogs of Democracy

You gonna get 'em, Spike? You gonna pulverize 'em, Spike? Hey Spike, hey Spike -- you gonna get 'em, Spike?

Posted by: Ace at 03:08 PM | Comments (90)
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After months of frustration in finding new bacon-infused products, Jack in the Box hammered me with this ad (Youtube embed is below)

Now, the BLT Cheeseburger is ridiculous, because, well, it's a fucking Bacon Cheeseburger with a different name. However, viewing their website for Marry Bacon led to something that brought tears of joy to my eyes:

more...

Posted by: CAC at 02:34 PM | Comments (39)
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Nice bet.

Posted by: Ace at 01:52 PM | Comments (41)
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At Verum Serum.

Your ad, good as it is, just doesnÂ’t reckon with the reality weÂ’re facing and, more importantly, neither does President Obama. WeÂ’re $15 trillion dollars in debt. ThatÂ’s money being loaded on future generations, including your kids and mine. Is it fair to ask people not yet born to pull together to shoulder our burdens? Because thatÂ’s the core of the disagreement on the field, Clint. It really does matter which team wins this one.

We desperately need a President who can get us to pull together for the good of the country (read: suck it up and pay our own way). But thatÂ’s not who we have in office. Not even close, Clint. According to the actual polling, Obama is the most divisive President in recent history. But thatÂ’s only part of it.

..

And, oh, by the way, heÂ’s not a big fan of roaring engines, Clint. He forced through new CAFE standards that could mean the end of 8 cylinder production engines on all but a few cars. Obama wants America to roar? Only with 4 cylinder diesel-hybrids. Maybe thatÂ’s your idea of a kick-ass America but itÂ’s not mine.

Posted by: Ace at 01:18 PM | Comments (268)
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They heckled her, calling out that Eli owned her husband and stuff.

So she defended him. Unfortunately she defended him by ripping his teammates, who had a bunch of key drops.

"You [need] to catch the ball when you're supposed to catch the ball," she is heard saying. "My husband cannot [expletive] throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time. I can't believe they dropped the ball so many times.

Also unfortunately, people videotaped her saying that.

The good: She defends her guy to the hilt.

The bad:
more...

Posted by: Ace at 12:42 PM | Comments (203)
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The crew that thinks unemployment payments are great for the economy now think it's pretty awesome that people are leaving the workforce.

"A large percentage of that is due to younger people getting more education, which in the end is an economic positive," Carney said. "This increase in the number of people leaving the work force has been a trend and a fact since 2000, because of an aging population, which is not to say this is wholly -- that's not to say that I would wholly disregard as an issue." Carney had been asked about the 19 million underemployed or unemployed Americans, and about people who had left the work force.

Yes, more people racking up more debt (remember when student debt was bad?) for degrees in things that won't prepare them for an actual job is good for the economy.

It's like these people aren't even remotely acquainted with basic economics or something.

Carney went on to wonder why suddenly everyone is interested in the size of the workforce. Just politics or something he figures. It couldn't have to to do with massive numbers of people so far gone they aren't event trying to get work.

Posted by: DrewM at 11:30 AM | Comments (236)
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