Overnight Open Thread
— CDR M

Well, well. Another Friday the 13th. Just another Friday to me but I'm sure some of you are the superstitious type so be careful tonight.

Now I'm sure you morons know some of the more well known things that have occurred on Friday the 13th such as Alfred Hitchcock being born or the Andes airplane crash in 1972 that was eventually made into a book and the movie Alive so I thought I would focus on the Top 10 Lesser-Known Friday The 13th Events.

Apparently at 13 minutes after the 13th hour (1 PM) on Friday the 13th of August 2010, a 13 year old boy was struck by lightning. Though this has to be one of the most unlucky Friday the 13th encounters by time signature alone, at least he was fortunate enough not to be struck by lightning 13 times! The boy was watching an air show at Lowestoft, England, when he was struck, and was later treated for burns to his shoulder. He was expected to make a full recovery.

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North Carolina Democratic Party Official Charged With Sexually Harassing a Dude; Victim Paid Off
— Ace

Scandal as usual.

A top North Carolina Democratic Party official has reportedly been identified as the accused perpetrator in a sexual harassment claim made by a former staffer.

Jay Parmley, North CarolinaÂ’s Democratic Party executive director, has been accused of sexual harassment by Adriadn Ortega, a former communications staffer for the state party...

The Daily Caller previously reported emails documenting Democrats fretting that the news of the payoff might come out.

“If this hits the media, the Democratic Party, our candidates, and our credibility are doomed in this election,” reads one email exchange between state Democratic leaders.

Apparently the media they have in North Carolina isn't the one I'm accustomed to, because otherwise the email would read:

Dude, don't sweat it, we're golden like Gary Oldman. Let's go out for some hookers and snacks.

Posted by: Ace at 05:17 PM | Comments (125)
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Evening Open Thread/Open Blog
— Ace

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This Dog Is Large-ish
— Ace

I think the photography there's a little trick-ish but the dog is genuinely huge. "Almost" four feet tall at the shoulder, and weighing 232 pounds.

232?!

He was just certified by Guinness as the World's Biggest Dog. More pictures at the Daily Mail.

George just penned an article for them, Don't Hate Me Because My Dogbutt Smells So Fragrant.

Posted by: Ace at 02:08 PM | Comments (202)
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AoSHQ Presidential Projection 2012- April Edition
— CAC

Map courtesy of the great JohnE, as always.
With the primary a done deal, the general election is at hand. Romney enjoyed a gaffe from uber-secret mole Hilary Rosen, and his numbers against the President have improved in polling. President Obama enjoyed a growing margin over Romney in state-by-state and national polling, but much of that was data taken before the abrupt end of primary season on Tuesday. Candidates will typically enjoy a "unity bounce" as the primary resolves, and we may be seeing evidence of that this week. Currently, President Obama enjoys a 2 point deficit in a FoxNews poll and 4 point deficit per Rasmussen. Romney and Obama have see-sawed in our daily tracker, with Obama enjoying a small edge through Tuesday.

Some additional thoughts. Argue until you are blue in the face, Pennsylvania is the "hype state" for 2012. What's a hype state, you might ask? Think of political geekdom's obsession with Florida in 2000 or Ohio in 2004. It is a sizeable "swing" state deemed as the make-or-break for both sides.

The CAC rule on flipping the White House would hold here, as Romney is currently projected to flip Iowa (George W Bush failed to do in 2000, the last election in which Republicans won back the White House). Would be grand if it isn't the only one.

*poll update for lulz* YouGov has a new poll out showing Obama edging Romney 46-43, and suffering a 41/50 approval rating. You would think his leading Romney would be good news until you see the partisan breakdown of the poll: 46% Democrat, 35% Republican, 19% Independent. In a D+11 poll, Obama's approval rating is atrocious and he can only barely edge Romney. I wonder what that poll would look like with the PVI of 2004 or even 2008.

Posted by: CAC at 01:38 PM | Comments (135)
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Rasmussen: Romney 48, Obama 44
— Ace

Both FoxNews and Rasmussen have been very disappointing this cycle -- for rightwing make-it-up wingnut polling operations, they sure have had Obama ahead an awful lot.

Well, FoxNews showed Romney's 2nd-ever lead on Obama yesterday, and Rasmussen shows now a Romney lead too.

(Both Fox and Rasmussen have lower figures for Obama's Job Approval than anyone else, though.)

I haven't been mentioning polls, because 1, this is an atypical period (bruising primary, no rallying effect yet) and 2, it's so far off and 3, they've been bad for Team Red.

I'm mentioning these two because lately the meme has spread like wildfire, even among Republicans, that Obama is going to win in a walk.

Um, what?

Either these people are crazy or I'm crazy. I don't think I'm crazy, so I'm going to say "them." But I do not see how you preside over the worst recession since the depression -- four grueling years of spirit-crushing joblessness -- and say "Let's have more of that!" and then win an election in a walk.

I just do not see how that is possible.

I thought 2000 would be close because even though Gore was a bit of dickbag, the economy had been good previously. It was close.

I thought 2004 would be close but we'd lose, because the economy wasn't booming and the public began showing signs of War Fatigue. It was close, but we won.

I thought we'd lose 2008, and not closely, because the economy was now in recession and we had a financial crisis and War Fatigue was now a majority complaint. We lost, and not closely.

I know "Campaigns matter," as political professionals are especially eager to tell you, and so do candidates, but basic underlying facts matter too.

The underlying facts of this election do not favor Obama. If they did, he'd be talking about them. But he's not. He's talking about everything else, but not The Question.

Reagan's question -- are you better off now than you were four years ago...? Obviously we're not, but he can't even offer a plausible Hypothetical Future Scenario where things are going to get better under his leadership.

And he'd better offer a really strong, very plausible Hypothetical Future Scenario. Because he offered a grand one up in 2008 and we're about as far from that as a monkey is from building a Saturn V.

He needs to answer The Question. He can't dodge it forever.

The public is giving him every last chance, but at some point, they're going to need reassurance and not just this ridiculous game of Winning the 24 Hour News Cycle.

Obama can win every news cycle from now until November 6th, but people will still vote against him if he can't answer the only question that matters.

Thanks to @comradearthur

Posted by: Ace at 01:14 PM | Comments (162)
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St. Louis Reporter To Obama: You Know, People Are Kind of Frustrated And Angry About How Many Vacations You're Jetting Off To At Taxpayer Expense
— Ace

Quoth the president:

"I think most folks understand how hard I work and how hard this administration's workin' on behalf of the American people."

Reading the green is work.

I guess what this nation really has to ponder is whether Mitt Romney's wife works hard at her job or not.

Video below the fold.

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Romney Delivers Speech on Freedom At NRA
— Ace

Excuse my mid-day break.

Reasonably good stuff from "Rot-ney," as Maxine Waters quips.

tÂ’s great to be with so many friends from the National Rifle Association.

This fine organization is sometimes called a single-issue group.

ThatÂ’s high praise when the single issue is freedom.

All of you can be proud of your long and unwavering defense of our constitutional rights and liberties.

...

It was one of MissouriÂ’s greatest sons, Harry Truman, who expressed a guiding conviction that you and I share.

In a ceremony that placed the Constitution and Declaration in the permanent care of the National Archives, President Truman offered a word of caution.

Liberty, he said, “can be lost, and it will be, if the time ever comes when these documents are regarded not as the supreme expression of our profound belief, but merely as curiosities in glass cases.”

Truman believed, as we do, that the principles of our Constitution are enduring and universal...that they were not designed to bend to the will of presidents and justices who come and go.

The belief that we are all created equal, that we are endowed by our Creator with unalienable rights – these are not relics from another time, they reflect truths that are valid in every era.

The framework of law created by the Declaration and the Constitution is the source of our greatness.

It has generated unparalleled opportunity and prosperity.

Our Founders understood this, which is why they created a system of government that is limited.

This President is moving us away from our FoundersÂ’ vision.

Instead of limited government, he is leading us toward limited freedom and limited opportunity.

This November, we face a defining decision.

...

We know what Barack Obama’s vision of America is – we’ve all lived it the last three years.

Mine is very different.

My course restores and protects our freedoms.

As President, the Constitution would be my guide, and the Declaration of Independence my compass.

Today, I want to talk about this administration’s assault on our freedoms – our economic freedom, our religious freedom, and our personal freedom.

...

Dodd-Frank is another example of the President's attack on economic freedom. ItÂ’s an 848-page behemoth that will be followed by thousands and thousands of pages of new regulations. Regulations are necessary. But burdensome regulations serve only to restrict freedom and imperil enterprise. The victims of those regulations are not nameless, faceless banks. TheyÂ’re the employees, the business owners, and the customers who rely on financial institutions that lose out.

Under President Obama, bureaucrats are insinuating themselves into every corner of our economy, undermining economic freedom. They prevent drilling rigs from going to work in the Gulf. They keep coal from being mined. They impede the reliable supply of natural gas. They tell farmers what their children can and can't do to help on the farm.

Will Rogers famously said that he worried whenever Congress was in session. Today, our freedom is never safe – because unelected, unaccountable regulators are always on the prowl. And under President Obama, they are multiplying. The number of federal employees has grown by almost 150,000 under this president.

For centuries, the American Dream has meant the opportunity to build something new. Some of AmericaÂ’s greatest success stories are of people who started out with nothing but a good idea and a corner in their garage. Today, Americans look at what it takes to start a business and they donÂ’t see promise and opportunity. They see government standing in their way.

The real cost isnÂ’t just the taxes paid and money spent complying with the rules. ItÂ’s the businesses that are never started, the ideas that are never pursued, the dreams that are never realized.

We once built the interstate highway system and the Hoover Dam. Today, we canÂ’t even build a pipeline.

We once led the world in manufacturing, exports, and infrastructure investment. Today, we lead the world in lawsuits.

We once led the world in educating our kids. Today, half the kids in our fifty largest cities won't even graduate from high school.

If we continue along this path, weÂ’ll spend our lives filling out forms, complying with excessive regulations and pleading with political appointees for waivers, subsidies and permission. That path erodes freedom. It deadens the entrepreneurial spirit. And it hurts the very people itÂ’s supposed to help.

Freedom is the victim of unbounded government appetite – and so is economic growth, job growth, and wage growth. As government takes more and more, there is less and less incentive to take risk, to invest, to innovate, and to hire.

...

There was a time – not so long ago – when each of us could walk a little taller and stand a little straighter because we had a gift that no one else in the world shared. We were Americans. That meant something different to each of us but it meant something special to all of us. We knew it without question. And so did the world.

Those days are coming back. ThatÂ’s our destiny.

Good speech. It's not detailed, but campaigns are chiefly conducted in themes, not specific legislative bits.

Jay Cost talks about Obama's lousy reelection strategy. Well, it may be a lousy strategy, but he has lousy facts, doesn't he?

He quotes Reagan's election-winning question from 1980. It would be a shame if commercials did not run constantly quoting this, verbatim, and if Romney did not ask it at the debate.

Next Tuesday all of you will go to the polls; you'll stand there in the polling place and make a decision. I think when you make that decision, it might be well if you would ask yourself, are you better off than you were 4 years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was 4 years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was 4 years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were 4 years ago? And if you answer all of those questions yes, why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to who you'll vote for. If you don't agree, if you don't think that this course that we've been on for the last 4 years is what you would like to see us follow for the next 4, then I could suggest another choice that you have.

Sorry this post is so thin. It's really a disguised open thread. I'm trying to find something new, fast!

Posted by: Ace at 12:22 PM | Comments (117)
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It's Not 2008 Anymore: Seven Ways In Which 2012 Is Different
— Ace

Nothing super-surprising, but something to keep in mind.

2012 will be a referendum, not a choice. One of the best established findings of contemporary political science is that in presidential contests involving an incumbent, the incumbentÂ’s record is central to the publicÂ’s judgment. A race for an open Oval Office is about promises and personalities; a campaign for reelection is about the record and performance of the person currently occupying the White House. To be sure, Obama can offer his vision for the future and new proposals to flesh it out. But if the people donÂ’t approve of his record, that wonÂ’t matter much.

No more promises of bipartisanship. Obama will have to abandon—or at least radically modify—the promise to heal a polarized political system that was at the heart of his rise to national prominence, starting with his dramatic address at the 2004 Democratic convention. And because his inability to foster this reconciliation has disappointed many people who voted for him in 2008, he’ll have to explain why he couldn’t do it in a way that redirects that disappointment toward the Republican Party and its nominee.

The most important one may be No More "Yes We Can." Obama ran in 2008, in his own words, as a "blank screen" upon which voters could "project" their hopes. He could be anything they wanted to be -- those who wanted a pragmatic problem-solver who was "post-partisan" could see that (and an impeccably creased trouser). Those who wanted a left-wing Black Hope could see that.

Well, he's not Everything to Everybody any longer. He has a record. He is not a pragmatic, post-partisan problem-solver. He is a stubborn and ignorant liberal with radical tendencies.

And he's failed. We are not faced with the interesting dilemma of policies that diminished freedom and the concept of America and yet, somehow, revved up the economy.

We're facing policies which diminished freedom, and America, and also led to the worst recession since the Great Depression.

That's not a hard call.

Posted by: Ace at 09:53 AM | Comments (564)
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Book Claims Napolitano May Have Perjured Herself In Fast & Furious Testimony
— Ace

In her September testimony to a Senate committee, Napolitano told senators she knew nothing about Fast & Furious until after Terry was killed in a gunfight on the night of Dec. 14, 2010 with an AK-47 purchased at one of the gun stores that was one of the key retailers where federal agents actively let guns walk.

In October, she told Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) at a hearing at the Senate Judiciary Committee she never spoke to the Dennis Burke about Fast & Furious....

In the same month, the Napolitano told Rep. Jason E. Chaffetz (R-Utah) at a hearing held by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform that she never spoke to Holder about Fast & Furious.

...

One source said to the author, “When she says that [she] and Attorney General Eric Holder have not discussed it, that is a lie. That's why they keep asking her those questions in the Judicial, Oversight, Homeland Security Committee hearings. They've asked her that same questions twice and she’s lied twice.”

The emails mentioned here, however, just note that she talked to Holder about Terry's death -- not necessarily about Fast and Furious. I imagine there's more to to this, though.

Posted by: Ace at 08:59 AM | Comments (163)
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