Final poll before the recall: 52-45

I will link once the results are posted, just pulling off MULaw's feed.

Last poll had Walker up by 6, 50-44, and Romney-Obama tied amongst likely voters. They also had a slightly wider lead for Walker (+8 ) amongst registered voters last time.

Current absentee totals (including early in-person) statewide is now 130,000 with just a few days to go. Over 230,000 were issued in 2010 and 633,000 in 2008. The GAB of Wisconsin is boosting estimated turnout to 2.6 to 2.8 million, based on existing data I think it will be a bit smaller than that but higher than 2010.

It is crunch time now for Republicans if they hope to save Walker. I still give him an edge, but it will take a sustained GOTV over the next 6 days to keep him on top. Democrats released yet another internal today, the first one now showing a tie between Barrett and Walker, 49% to 49%. They're saying the race is tightening, this poll refutes that showing Walker's lead growing.

UPDATES:
Lt Gov Kleefich leads Mitchell just 46%-41%

Walker lead Barrett by 6 months ago, that tightened as the race progressed, now right back to Walker leading.

"Perceptions on WI jobs have shifted to more people thinking we've gained jobs" per the poll.

BIG ONE-- Who is better at creating jobs? WALKER 50% Barrett 43% (So even some of Barrett's supporters don't think he's better at this)

Favorability:
Walker 51%/46% Barrett down to 41%/46%

FIRST time in MULAW polling Walker cracks the 50% ceiling.

Walker's Job?
Like what he has done 39%
Don't like what he has done 38%
Like what he did, just not how he did it 21%

Increases in employee share of cost for health and retirement: favor 75% oppose 22%

All of this, with Walker up 7, in a poll per MuLaw where the electorate is 4% MORE Democratic leaning than 2 weeks ago.

Are you ABSOLUTELY going to vote? 2 weeks ago: Republicans 91%. Now: 92%
Are you ABSOLUTELY going to vote? 2 weeks ago: Democrats 83%. Now? 77%.

Regional breakdown remains a massacre outside of Dane/Milwaukee. Barrett leads in Madison Metro by about 13 points, Milwaukee city an incredible 51 pts, but in the rest of the state being crushed. Loses GB/Appleton by 13, MilwaukeeMet by 23, rest of state by nearly same.

Don't screw this up. Don't celebrate or boast until we at #AOSHQDD call the race for Walker on Tuesday. Until that moment happens, don't let up.

And do not, under any circumstances, violate the golden rule about elections:
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Posted by: CAC at 09:15 AM | Comments (96)
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Episode #8,451: The Case Of The Site-Hacking Mayor

Felix Roque, the mayor of West New York, NJ, along with his son, were arrested for allegedly hacking into a site dedicated to his recall. The mayor also allegedly threatened the site's contributors.

...the mayor allegedly called another site contributor to tell him that the site had been kicked offline by "highly placed government officials" and that "everyone would pay" for getting involved with the recall push.

A couple hours later, the mayor then allegedly wrote to "Victim 5" and threatened to sic the Internal Revenue Service, along with a nice tax audit, on him or her.

Ctrl-F
'democrat'
i- Phrase not found

'republican'
i- Phrase not found

Ooo. I love a good mystery!

Posted by: LauraW at 09:11 AM | Comments (43)
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Not just the denigration of success, but the virtual criminalization of supporting your preferred political party. By the Commander in Chief himself.
This is insane. Unprecedented, indeed.

Great video from The Heritage Foundation, with some observations and pushback from one of the evil badguy moguls on Obama's openly posted enemies list.

"The government can't hire everybody." Oh, pshh. Of course they can!

It just hasn't been tried by the smartest people yet. They'll get it right, one of these days. Then everything will be perfect.

Posted by: LauraW at 08:28 AM | Comments (98)
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The summer dog days of news are here so let's go with some feel good stuff and bit of break from the daily cesspool that is politics.

A 9 year old boy gets his hands on a free trip to 9 year old paradise, Disney World, and then gave it away.

Brendan Haas created the "Soldier for a Soldier" Facebook page in February. Inspired by the story of the guy who, through a series of trades, turned a paper clip into a house, Haas started with a toy soldier and eventually traded up to $900 worth of Disney gift certificates, airfare and hotel credits.

On Memorial Day, Haas gave the trip to the family of U.S. Army Lt. Timothy Steele, a 25-year-old soldier killed in Afghanistan last year. According to NBC's WHDH-TV affiliate, Haas pulled the name of Liberty Hope Steele, the fallen soldier's now 2-year-old daughter, out of a hat, and surprised the Steele family at their Duxbury, Mass., home.

I'm thinking as soon as word of this gets to the Disney folks, young Mr. Haas will be going to Disney as well.

Posted by: DrewM at 08:06 AM | Comments (67)
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Nothing.

Elizabeth Warren has more Cherokee ancestors than this thread has content.
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Posted by: Open Blogger at 07:21 AM | Comments (243)
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Happy Wednesday.

I got nothing. Enjoy your day.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:45 AM | Comments (497)
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Was Trayvon Martin High on 'Lean'?

Apparently 'lean' AKA DXM is the street term for using dextromethorphan (the active ingredient in OTC Robotussin) mixed with sweet drinks to make it more palatable:

One of the recipes for "lean" calls for using Arizona Iced Tea Co.watermelon fruit juice cocktail as the beverage of choice, and Skittles candy. the items found on Trayvon Martin's body the night he was shot by George Zimmerman.

The Conservative Treehouse has a lengthy post about the recreational drug, it's effects and side effects, and alleged screen captures of Trayvon Martin's social media sites discussing his fondness for the concoction.

I remember hearing about 'Robo-ing' in college but based on my experiences with DM-based cough syrups while sick I figured that it would just make you super sleepy and dopey - which didn't sound all that appealing.

But apparently at higher dosages dextromethorphan begins to act more like PCP or ketamine. And there seems to be some pretty good evidence from Facebook posts that Trayvon was a regular user of 'lean' which could explain a lot about his behavior and actions that night.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 06:20 PM | Comments (641)
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Smart.

Posted by: Ace at 04:56 PM | Comments (331)
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Well, someone asked, so here you go, a thread tracking the battle of Dewhurst and Cruz.

Results here

Announcement about WISCONSIN RECALL coverage for next Tuesday:

Pending the completion of some things behind the scenes, we have something quite special planned out next Tuesday: a live, interactive map showing real-time results county-by-county that, if all goes right, will report faster than the AP; results of the Lt. Governor recall race, and live results on all four State Senate recall races. A team of over a dozen morons, moronettes, and guest bloggers will be helping me behind the scenes so that AOSHQ is your go-to spot for numbers and official calls. Why go any place else?

US SENATE TEXAS: Dewhurst leads Cruz 45%-34% with 91% of precincts in.
**RUNOFF TRIGGERED**
Not that it matters any more, but Mitt Romney is now officially the Republican candidate. Texas pushed him over the line.

Posted by: CAC at 04:43 PM | Comments (107)
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Via Hot Air, a newish (?) blogger for the Washington Post, handling politics from the rightward perspective, asks if the Democrats plan to run on the idea that Obama is a good president or Obama is an earthbound god.

He quotes the NYT's Frank Bruni -- arguing for the "Lightbringer" side of things -- then writes:

Like other liberals, Bruni credits Obama's charmed life so far as being "his journey." ... Bruni and the Obama disciples can't see — or they just choose to ignore — any understated grace or humility in Romney. They can't appreciate the example of his exemplary family and his earnest desire to repay part of what he has earned through hard work and good fortune by entering public service. Romney is not good at boasting and the left would hammer him if he tried.

Many on the left have lost any insight into their own bias; nothing Obama says is over the top, and nothing he has done lacks significance or inspiration. Likewise, nothing Romney says or has done amounts to much. By forcing a halo upon Obama, suggesting dark hearts among any who don't see it and follow, and ignoring the virtues of a decent man like Romney, does not serve the president well. It stirs resentment among voters who chafe at being told to love him or else.

I think that last sentence is insightful. It is one thing that the media instructs us that Democrats are better presidents. We're used to that.

It's another thing entirely for the media to urge that Barack Obama is a better, higher form of life, quite literally a Jesus-figure or a "Lightbringer."

The first proposition I can disagree with. The second proposition I take visceral offense at.

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Posted by: Ace at 04:00 PM | Comments (181)
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