First, I'll cite the one I don't believe, because it's PPP, and they loves them some Democratic oversampling. Nevertheless, the oversample Democrats all the time, so while you can't put much stock in their numbers, you can read something into the direction of the trend: and that trend is from 12 point Obama lead to a 6 point one.

So: A six point swing from Obama to Romney.

But then there's this one by WMUR, where Obama's former 9 point lead is now down to... three.

Three is nothing. Three is, in fact, a statistical tie. MoE.

Also a six point swing in Romney's favor, right?

First, Obama's favorability ratings have plunged in the state over the past six months. In February, his positive-negative favorability rating stood at 53-40. That's now down to an even 47-47, a 13-point swing in six months. What helps him keep his lead is a 41-49 favorable-to-unfavorable rating for Romney.

And in related news, Paul Ryan actually has the best fav/unfav numbers of any of the four men on the major party tickets, at 50/38.

Oh: I ignored this because Gallup has been frozen at around a 46-46 tie for a while. Sometimes one candidate goes ahead by 1, 2, or 3; then it comes back to a tie.

Romney just took the lead, 47-45, for the first time in a while -- since June 18.

But... this is such a small move, similar to all the other small moves that meant nothing, I'd ignore it until it becomes a trend.

Obama's also slowly dropping on Intrade.

Thanks to @comradearthur for the last one.

Posted by: Ace at 12:13 PM | Comments (260)
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Obama decided to float the Seamus story again.

Obama referenced Mitt Romney's statement that you can't drive a car with a windmill on it.

“I don’t know if he’s actually tried that. I know he’s had other things on his car,” Mr. Obama said, drawing laughter from a crowd at a farm here.

Obama ate a dog.

The Weekly Standard immediately ran this video. And, if I were a betting man, I would bet they didn't find it themselves, if you know what I mean.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 11:34 AM | Comments (311)
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I guess they forgot they cut $716 billion from Medicare. One can understand why they forgot -- the media certainly didn't remind them.

Mitt Romney is reminding them.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 10:59 AM | Comments (279)
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It's disgusting. The real horror comes from how long it goes on, and how he almost seems to savor it.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 10:36 AM | Comments (151)
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"No problem."

Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter says the campaign has "no problem" with Vice President Joe Biden's comments to about putting people back in chains.

"I think he probably agrees with Joe Biden's sentiments," Cutter said on behalf of President Obama.

The Romney camp says this is a "new low."

“After weeks of slanderous and baseless accusations leveled against Governor Romney, the Obama campaign has reached a new low,” said Romney campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul in a statement. “The comments made by the vice president of the United States are not acceptable in our political discourse and demonstrate yet again that the Obama campaign will say and do anything to win this election. President Obama should tell the American people whether he agrees with Joe Biden’s comments.”

Former George W. Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer tweeted: “The press pounded [Sarah] Palin when she talked about ‘blood libel’ … what will they do about Biden’s ‘chains’ remark.”

Posted by: Ace at 10:06 AM | Comments (236)
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She was caught reading an email sent to her-- probably from Team Obama -- which printed out talking points from the accurately-named Talking Points Memo, a hard liberal blog.

And she was up to her tricks with John Sununu. more...

Posted by: Ace at 09:23 AM | Comments (184)
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One speech, two awesome bits of Biden.

First, his amusing geography error. Note, he's speaking in Virginia when he says this.

I guess the Democrat's plan to win NC is through massive voter fraud by Virginians or something.

From funny Joe to disgusting Joe.

The "y'all" is a nice touch whether you're in NC or VA. Southerns are all the same anyway, right Joe?

It's really rich to hear Democrats talking about putting people in chains to massive institutions. You know like failing public schools to benefit teacher unions, or on welfare by eliminating work requirements or God forbid! giving people a choice to plan for their retirement with choices other than Medicare or Social Security.

Added: This is making the rounds too. Biden "mocks" the woman doing the sign language. Personally, I think he's mocking himself for being a gaseous windbag but I admit, no matter how dumb he is, I can't stay mad at Slow Joe.

Posted by: DrewM at 08:38 AM | Comments (230)
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Oh noes! Teh sky is falling. So say a bunch of unidentified Republican strategists and professionals.

But Washington political chatter is a pervasive reality even when the chatterers prefer not to risk personal relationships or professional prospects by publicly second-guessing their partyÂ’s nominee. For Romney, even if he ultimately proves the doubters wrong, the skepticism among capital insiders is an obstacle as he seeks to frame a general election argument.

And that skepticism about Ryan among GOP strategists is striking.

They’re worried about inviting Medicare — usually death for Republicans — into the campaign. They’re worried it sidetracks the jobs issue. They’re worried he’ll expose the fact that Romney doesn’t have a budget plan. Most of all, they’re worried that Romney was on track to lose anyway — and now that feels all but certain.

“I think it’s a very bold choice. And an exciting and interesting pick. It’s going to elevate the campaign into a debate over big ideas. It means Romney-Ryan can run on principles and provide some real direction and vision for the Republican Party. And probably lose. Maybe big,” said former President George W. Bush senior adviser Mark McKinnon.

“Whether or not they [the Romney campaign] want to say that they have their own plan on Day One, or whatever they’re doing, it doesn’t change the reality of them having to own the Ryan plan. How is that in the wheelhouse of creating jobs?” added a GOP consultant.

Joked another: “The most popular phrase in Washington right now is: ‘I love Paul Ryan, but …’”

“This could be the defining moment of the campaign. If they win the battle to define Medicare, then I believe Romney wins the presidency. If they lose it, then they lose big in the fall,” the same strategist said, acknowledging that Romney had to choose from a flawed list of VP options.

It would be interesting to know how many of these pros didn't get hired by Romney or their paymasters weren't chosen or even considered for VP by him.

If you think the Dems and the DMM would give Pawlenty a pass on his time as Governor, flip-flops in the primary and "ObamneyCare" or Portman on his years as W's OMB Director or Rubio on his readiness or and on with anyone you can name you're fooling yourself.

The GOP can either stand for some key things and be willing to fight for them in a battle of ideas or it can constantly worry "what will the Democrats and DMM (Democratic Media Machine) say?". If it's the latter then we are giving them a hecklers veto over every Republican nomination. If our ideas can't be explained in a way that convinces a majority of Americans we are right, then we don't deserve to win an election. That's...democracy.

If the GOP isn't even willing to pretend to want to reform entitlements (and the EVILLLL Ryan Plan barely scratched the surface of our problems before it was watered down) what exactly is the point of having the GOP?

According to vast armies of unnamed GOP "pros" the party exists to provide them and their families with a comfortable living and that's about it.

It's pretty clear that politics, campaigns and public policy are far too important to be let to the professionals.

Posted by: DrewM at 07:18 AM | Comments (322)
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Well, that was a short honeymoon. Below the fold is an exclusive photo obtained by the HQ that we might as well get out there before the mainstream media gets its hands on the story. more...

Posted by: andy at 04:46 AM | Comments (364)
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Happy Tuesday.

The Tampa Bay Times is reporting that Sen. Rubio will introduce Gov. Romney at the convention, something that should provide a boost to both men. USAToday is reporting that Gov. Christie will deliver the keynote address.

Beleaguered talking head Soledad O'Brien was caught yesterday reading from the liberal blog Talking Points Memo to question a Romney surrogate about the Ryan plan.

The Obama campaign's shrill fundraising emails just got worse: "why the hell did Romney pick this guy?!?"

GIGANTIC HORROR BAILOUT: The Treasury Department now says taxpayers will lose $25.1 billion on the auto bailout, 15% more loss than it last reported.

With respect to the question of Sarah Palin, Palin's statement on the convention is ambiguous. It does not rule out any of the possibilities: (1) she was offered a spot, but turned it down; (2) she was offered a spot, but hasn't decided yet; or (3) she wasn't offered a spot. What we know for sure is that Palin expressed an interest in going and RNC Chair Reince Priebus expressed an interest in having her there. Where things broke down after that is an open question, but until we know that Palin was actually snubbed, I'm not going to get het up over it.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:51 AM | Comments (237)
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