Dr. Barbara Bellar is running for Illinois State Senate. She uncorked this, um, corker at a Romney event.

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Posted by: Ace at 08:48 AM | Comments (226)
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So says Mort Zuckerberg, thanks to @rdbrewer4.

We are still almost five million payrolls shy of where we were at the end of 2007, when the recession began. Think about that when you hear the Obama administration's talk of an economic recovery.

The key indicator of our employment health, in all the statistics, is what the government calls U-6. This is the number who have applied for work in the past six months and includes people who are involuntary part-time workers—government-speak for those individuals whose jobs have been cut back to two or three days a week.

They are working part-time only because they've been unable to find full-time work. This involuntary army of what's called "underutilized labor" has been hovering for months at about 15% of the workforce. Include the eight million who have simply given up looking, and the real unemployment rate is closer to 19%.

In short, the president's ill-designed stimulus program was a failure. For all our other national concerns, and the red herrings that typically swim in electoral waters, American voters refuse to be distracted from the No. 1 issue: the economy.

Team Romney's "Buck up, little campers" email (posted below by Drew) is probably right. It has to be remembered than in any contest the other team gets the ball sometimes, and sometimes they score.

They even go ahead sometimes.

It's unreasonable to expect blow-outs, or holding the opponents to zero scoring. Sure, we'd like that. But end of the day, that's just Style Points.

Clinton's touchdown doesn't change the basic fact of the campaign. Yes, apparently the public has been successfully Distracted into focusing on Free Birth Control and Gay Marriage this week. That doesn't mean they'll remain distracted.

I almost think the public appreciated the distraction of the DNC because they don't want to think about the horrors of the Obama economy.

But they will think about that. They maybe just want a couple of weeks off, for pretend-time.

Posted by: Ace at 08:07 AM | Comments (212)
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As Gabe noted earlier there's been a bit of a freak out by Republicans over Obama's post-convention bounce. Apparently it's gotten the attention of the Boston brain trust so they had the campaign pollster put out an "all is well" memo. The fact that they had to do that sort of belies the message but whatever.

Don't get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.

In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.

Today, there is no question: Americans are not better off than we were four years ago, and that is why President Obama has struggled in this race. The truth is that some of President Obama’s allies are claiming victory, but others are acknowledging the unsustainable position in which they find themselves. This is evidenced in a recent quote in The New York Times by an Obama Administration official saying, “It’s certainly not what I would call the position we wanted to be in at this point in the race…He’s going to have to make the case that we wouldn’t even be at 8 percent if it weren’t for him.”

He then goes on to list a number of factors, some reasonable, some not so much to buttress their argument.

There are two points he makes that fits nicely with a post I was planning on doing before I saw this memo.

Historical Data: Political campaign historians will recall President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in the fall in 1980. In that race, the voters made their decision based on the key issues confronting the nation and it determined the outcome. On the economy, the most important issue of this race, Mitt Romney leads by 51%-45%, according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll.

Targeted Campaign: The Romney-Ryan campaign is running deeply local and targeted efforts in each of the states focusing on the voter groups that will make the difference on Election Day. Anyone asserting a “one-size-fits-all-campaign” effort is being put forward is simply misinformed, as evidenced by the 15 different ads released by the Romney Ryan campaign this past Friday and now running in nine states, including Wisconsin.

My original point was going to be...counter CAC, ENOUGH with the damn poll watching. Polling is an artifact of the campaign, it's the result of what candidates do and say. We and Romney should spend more time trying to move the conversation and not worrying as much about the horse race aspect. If you have solid ideas and make your case for them, you will move the needle.

That's the lesson of Reagan and Clinton, the last two challengers to unseat an incumbent. Yes, they pointed to the failures of Carter and G.H.W. Bush but they also created a vision of the future, a pro-active reason to vote for them. Reagan had restoring American pride and Clinton had an appeal to youthful energy and vision.

Mitt's entire message is, "Obama sucks". This is true but he's yet to make the other half of the case...He's awesome. It takes both parts of the equation to win. There's still time for Mitt to do it but less and less.

Yes, Team Mitt is micro targeting a relative handful of voters in a small number of states but if doing that leaves a larger hole in the greater electorate and election story line, you are putting all your eggs in a very small and fragile basket.

Am I worried about the outcome of the campaign? Of course. It's hard to beat a sitting President, even in tough times. It's harder still when you have a challenger who quite frankly is not a very good candidate or running a very good campaign. But this is the guy we've chosen. I don't think we're going to see a lot of ads featuring the folks from Boston who spoke about what a kind and caring guy Mitt is. I'm not sure why they want to leave that bullet unfired but it appears they do.

And don't tell me he shouldn't have to run ads like that or pump himself up. What you're arguing for then is taking politics out of a political campaign. See the problem with that?

The good news is the first point Team Mitt makes in their memo...historically people break late for a challenger. Its a two step process for voters, deciding they really don't like the incumbent and then later deciding the challenger is an acceptable risk (better the Devil you know and all).

I still think Mitt will pull this out but looking at it now, it's going to be a near run thing.

Crass commercialism...my electoral college map app is available for iPhone/iPad now. It's still available for Android and Kindle as well. Play around with it a bit and you'll see how much of an uphill climb it is for Romney. You can also put your results on your facebook and Twitter feeds directly from your phone/tablet.

Posted by: DrewM at 06:25 AM | Comments (427)
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And by "for the children" the union means more jobs for their members, lifetime employment, more time off, weaker evaluation standards and oh yeah, a TWENTY-TWO percent raise (pdf)

• Duration: The Board is proposing a 4 year contract. The Union is proposing a 2 year contract.

• Pay: The Board is proposing raises of 2%, 2%, and 2% with a 2% increase in the 4th year dependent on the adoption of merit pay. The Board is proposing to freeze steps for the duration of the contract. The Union’s last proposal was made during fact finding for 19% and 3%.

• Evaluation: The Board is proposing to implement a plan in which student test scores and surveys will eventually be 50% of a teacher’s evaluation (by year 5). The Union is proposing a lower cap on “Student Growth Measures,” revisions to the “cut scores” that determine ratings (i.e., how many points are required for a proficient rating) as well as an appeal process.

• Working Conditions/Structure of Day: The Board is proposing to do away with 18 separate articles in the contract that relate to details of our work day such as our class load, our breaks, and the nature of our work assignments. These include Article 4 (Elementary School), 5 (Middle School), 6 (High School), 7 (Elementary School Counselors), 9 (PSRPs), etc. The Union is proposing language that would guarantee that the Board follow their promises on prep time, staffing, and breaks.

• Class Size: The Board is proposing that it continue following its current policy. The Union is seeking to lower class sizes and make class size subject to effective enforcement.

• Job Security: The Board has not yet agreed to place language for a ‘hiring pool’ in our contract. We are also seeking protection of PSRPs’ work.

Compare the union's list of demands to how they are selling their position to parents (pdf)

ChicagoÂ’s teachers and other school professionals voted to strike on September 10 to demand a fair contract from the Chicago Board of Education. We also demand that the Chicago Board of Education make every school day better, not just longer. They must increase art , music, physical education classes in all schools.

ThereÂ’s a great deal of work to do to create the schools our students deserve.

...

Tell ChicagoÂ’s mayor and the Chicago Board of Education to make our students a priority. They must invest in high quality school facilities, staff, and resources for all students.

Join us in our fight to win a fair contract and to move our schools forward.

I don't mind teachers, like anyone else, trying to get the best deal possible. What I do mind is that teacher's seem to think they are immune to the normal forces of employment like ways to measure competency and the ability to get rid of workers who don't measure up.

What really bothers me about many, many teachers is their martyr complex. Don't pretend what you do is akin to a holy calling and then play hardball for your contract.

As I said, I don't mind people trying to get the best deal they can. I do mind having them insist I kiss their ass in the process.

Added: Look at how unappreciated the poor Chicago teachers are.

FIRST YEAR teacher in Chicago Pub Schls w only a BA starts @ $52.6k (38.6 wks/yr) or $57k (42.6 wks/yr), incl. pension

Posted by: DrewM at 05:39 AM | Comments (176)
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Happy Monday.

I don't have much to share with you today. That's largely because I shut Twitter off this weekend after witnessing a collective freak-out from folk who have decided that Obama's convention bounce is proof that we're going to lose in November, or something equally stupid. The panicked bleating was too much, so I haven't been keeping up with politics for a few days. Rick Wilson had excellent push-back against the nervous nellies. I'll have new stuff tomorrow.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:48 AM | Comments (363)
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Yeah the pants are gonna go back on - but not until after the ONT party. 

Posted by: Maetenloch at 06:24 PM | Comments (527)
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So.

By the way, remember, Obama had a rise in job approval a couple of months ago, up to 50%. I remember not being able to understand it, as it wasn't traceable to any news.

So, don't fret too much.

The Phantom Rise did not endure.

Posted by: Ace at 04:08 PM | Comments (496)
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I literally cannot believe the enormity of his erection.

Photo by AP, via @slublog.

Another Big Smoocher: Kissing Bandit.

Massage: Ol' Joe knows what he likes.

And Obama Now: Apparently the duo has decided its strength is pushing the "enormity of his heart"/"we care so much" angle. Because suddenly it's all physical contact.

Posted by: Ace at 11:20 AM | Comments (647)
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Get yer picks in, ya bunch a maroons.

God bless America. Also I hope we aren't over-centered this time. My bad, my bad.

UPDATED with some politics (what the hell, right?): Old but good. There's nothing new under the sun.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 08:34 AM | Comments (431)
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Good morning morons and moronettes and welcome to the auspicious yet insignificant Sunday Morning book thread.

Books For Kids

When Mrs. Muse and I started our family, we decided that we would homeschool our children. One of the reasons for this was because we wanted to protect their innocence for as long as we possibly could. Back then (approx. 25 years ago) was when I first started to notice that much of our culture was unhealthy and unwholesome and hostile to the values we were trying to teach. We didn't want to be overprotective of our children, but on the other hand, maybe a little bit of overprotection isn't a bad thing.

The main thing we did was keep them away from TV. We found that children' programming, even back then, to be mostly a waste of time, if not offensive. Anything we let them watch, we pre-screened.

So we concentrated on books and reading. But here, too, we had to be careful. We wanted to have books that were wholesome and uplifting and fun. We wanted to avoid books like this, and this, and for God's sake, certainly this.

We did not want to destroy our children's innocence, as some of the books seemed to be purposely written to do. The loss of innnocence would come soon enough, all too soon, we knew, but we didn't want to help it along.

So here are some of the G-rated books we found to read to them. Not only are they good for kids, they're fun reads for adults as well. So if any of you morons have small children, or know anyone that does, these were worth checking out:

George and Martha. George and Martha are hippos who sometimes fight, but truly love each other as friends. Very funny, and also very sweet. Somebody gave this a one-star review at Amazon because it showed George smoking a cigar. The reviewer said it "sickened" him and asked his 7-year-old son to stop reading it.

Frog and Toad Are Friends. Frog and Toad have wonderful adventures together. This is another book about friendship, very sweet and very endearing and very wholesome.

Commander Toad in Space. Commander Toad and his crew explore the galaxy in their ship Star Warts. There's all kinds of indirect takes on Star Trek and Star Wars characters and themes.

These books are actually the first ones in each of their own series. And, as I've already mentioned, they're fun to read as adults as well as children.

Meanwhile, here are some children's books that probably aren't good for them to read:

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Posted by: Open Blogger at 06:43 AM | Comments (216)
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