Overnight Open Thread (27 Sep 2013)
— CDR M

Pictures of cute animals won't help Obamacare win over converts. Obamacare relies on people making bad choices.

The crux of Obamacare, the most basic thing essential to its success, is that millions of people have to do something that is not in their economic interest. They have to act against themselves, or the program doesnÂ’t work.

more...

Posted by: CDR M at 07:00 PM | Comments (669)
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Of Course: John McCain Hires Not-a-Doctor Elizabeth O'Bagy, Syrian Rebel Expert
— Ace

As you might know, Doctor O'Bagy penned an Op Ed claiming there weren't many jihadis in the Free Syrian Army. She later turned out to not be a doctor. She then explained that she was in a doctoral program and had defended her dissertation and was merely waiting for a grade.

This also turned out to not be true. It was not even true that she was enrolled in a doctoral program at all. So far from waiting for a grade, she was actually waiting to apply.

In addition, she failed to disclose in her op-ed that she was working for the pro-Syrian rebel "Syrian Emergency Task Force." She later parsed this as well, claiming she wasn't an employee of the group; she was merely a contractor.

Which is a type of employee. Yes, when you hire a guy to seal your driveway he's a "contractor," not an "employee," but while you're paying him for his work he's working for you.

And now she works for John McCain.

Sen. John McCain has hired Elizabeth O'Bagy, the Syria analyst in Washington who was fired for padding her credentials, The Cable has learned. She begins work Monday as a legislative assistant in McCain's office.

O'Bagy was a young but well-respected advisor at the Institute for the Study of War and had emerged quickly as an important voice among those arguing in favor of intervention in Syria...

"Elizabeth is a talented researcher, and I have been very impressed by her knowledge and analysis in multiple briefings over the last year," McCain told The Cable in a statement. "I look forward to her joining my office." McCain's office said there would be no further comment on the matter.

How to explain? I don't know.

I think John McCain has an inability to see his errors. I think his ego precludes such a possibility. It's not that his conclusions about Syria are rendered erroneous by these disclosures about O'Bagy; but he does seem foolish to have relied upon O'Bagy's claims.*

But he can't see himself as having made a mistake, so he applies his favorite Narrative: That "mavericks," like McCain himself and Not-a-Doctor O'Bagy, are like Luke Skywalker trapped in the Death Star trench (I know this doesn't make perfect sense but it's McCain's 2000 campaign line; take it up with him) and must break free of "The Empire," which are the conservatives he despises so palpably.

Thus, O'Bagy is not really at fault; rather, she is a victim of the same Conservative Hate Empire that keeps McCain trapped in the trench.

The more charitable explanation is that he simply liked her during briefings, and took a shine to her, and feels that she shouldn't lose her entire career over a lie.

I don't discount that one, either. People do just like some people, for whatever reason. There's some sympatico.

Still, what I'm imagining is that both ideas, the charitable one and the uncharitable one, are in play. The heart might have been motivated by the charitable one, and then the head applies the Death Star Evil Conservative Empire narrative to convince itself that the heart is right.

* The Pro-Air-Snub gang keeps saying "none of these disclosures disprove anything O'Bagy said."

Well let's think about that. It's technically true. But O'Bagy's piece was largely based on her own witness; that is, she was reporting her eyewitness testimony. Her beliefs, her observations.

Such a piece does not make reference to anything externally true. Such a piece -- an "On Author" piece, I think they're called -- relies upon the reputation and credibility of the Author as far as evidence of its truth.

And obviously when the author has taken an enormous hit on personal credibility, so too does her On Author claims about Things She's Seen and People She's Met and Conversations She's Had and Beliefs She's Formed decline in credibility.

Posted by: Ace at 01:06 PM | Comments (324)
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Westgate terrorists used pre-cached weapons
— Purple Avenger

They rented a shop at the mall prior to the attack.

The militants who led the attack on a Kenyan mall hired a shop there in the weeks leading up to the siege, senior security sources have told the BBC.

This gave them access to service lifts at Westgate enabling them to stockpile weapons and ammunition.

Having pre-positioned weapons they were able to re-arm quickly and repel the security forces.

They're not only thinking smaller, they're thinking smarter. This could be a real problem. Undoubtedly this scheme will be replicated in the future and would work with high security office buildings as well as malls.

Imagine the effort involved in searching everything that came into a mall or office building through the service entrances. Boxed store product, cases of bung wrap, cases of bags, cases of floor cleaner/wax etc. Even then, terrorists could easily substitute liquid explosives/incendiaries for any bottled service supplies or bulk food court drinks. The manpower need for that level of security is daunting indeed.

If they were patient enough, they could even build a weapons and explosives cache into a building under construction if they had some guys on the drywall crew. Damn little inspection of construction materials and worker tool boxes and such is done on most commercial projects.

Even supposedly secure sites, like US embassies, are routinely compromised during construction. Remember the embassy we had built in Moscow that was uninhabitable because the Soviets had laced so many bugging devices in during construction that it was impossible to remediate?

Posted by: Purple Avenger at 03:10 PM | Comments (210)
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Topless Feminist Protestor Storms/Disrupts Fashion Catwalk; British Model Punches Her In The Face
— Ace

Genius.

She's going to be in 30 action movies. They're just going to throw her in for purposes of Credibility.

The protest was personally insulting to the models, likening them to whores, and apparently one protester lifted up the model's skirt to embarrass her.

That was a problem.

Speaking after the incident, she said: 'I punched her – I didn’t mean to but she grabbed my arm and I just wanted to get her off me.

'My Scouseness came out a bit but I wish it had come out a bit more. Thinking about it now I wish IÂ’d pushed them both off the stage because they ruined my favourite show.'

The screaming women invaded the stage with feminist slogans daubed across their chest just as Miss Saker took to the catwalk.

'I was the 19th girl out of the catwalk and I could hear screaming behind me,' she said. 'The next thing I just saw half-naked women with black marker pen scrawled across their bare chests and thatÂ’s when she came at me.

'As she grabbed my arm she lifted my skirt exposing me [so] I pulled my arm back with such force that I landed a punch square on her nose.

'I was so angry but I knew I had to be professional so I carried on walking with a bit of sassiness. "

Yeah I'll bet.

I mentioned this other story yesterday -- the one about the girl who went bananas over a minor break-up and sent her paramour's texts to his employer for vengeance -- but the Daily Mail adds a lot to it.

One commenter -- I guess commenting on this woman's blog -- sort of sums up the Rationalist critique of what "Feminism" usually means, when you come down to it: It's a silly make-'em-up phony politics which is really just an elaborate way of claiming Things Should Be The Way I Want Them To Be Because Philosophy.

'Despite her claim to feminist righteousness, I think sheÂ’s undermining the very cause she purports to support by confusing public vs private issues and using a movement to justify her poorly-formed emotional-coping skills.'

A crudely disguised Self Affirmation culture disguised as "politics" or "philosophy" -- quite right.

Incidentally, other commenters would like to know how this 26 year old has already published two books -- both memoirs.

Not even Barack Obama published two memoirs by age 26.

What the hell is she memorializing? The disappointing seafood tetrazini at the Student Commons last Thursday?

Both worth a read. I think they show a lot of dysfunction in the current concept of "Feminism." I don't want to praise socking someone in the nose too much, but I think the model is closer to the target.

These other broads just seem to be looking for some kind of broad justification for psychological dysfunction and reversion to childish temper tantrums.

via @phxazgrl and Lauren, in reverse order, because I already wrote them in that order and there's no way I'm editing that now.

Posted by: Ace at 12:21 PM | Comments (235)
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Now They Tell Us: New York Times Editorial Announces It Was A Mistake to Take the Mann Hockey Stick "Seriously"
— Ace

You may wonder why such a statement would be made in the New York Times.

Well, not because they're giving up on the Cult of Angry Gaia. No. What's happened is that given the 15 year long hiatus in temperature change, certain proofs that the Science Is Settled You Guys have to be tossed out in order to save the rest of it.

In the editorial, the author argues that the Hockey Stick was always silly and therefore we shouldn't be misled by reliance upon it. The Hockey Stick showed, and projected, ever-rising global temperatures; well that was just plain ol' silly, this writer now says, and you shouldn't hold it against Global Warming that one of their most widely publicized Political Advertisements turns out to have been bunk.

You should still totes believe in Global Warming. Just don't put any stock in that silly Hockey Stick graph that was used to sell Global Warming for the past, what, 30 years?

See, if you ignore that Hockey Stick, and accept, as the writer (now he tells us) announces, that the Hockey Stick always had " too much certainty and inappropriate simplicity," and just accept that Global Warming might be much more variable and unpredictable than previously claimed, then you can accept the truth that it's Totally Predictable and We're All Going to Die So Just Believe Us Please.

The writer claims he "predicted" the 15 year pause in temperature increase:

“Suppose... future measurements in the years 2005-2015 show a clear and distinct global cooling trend. (It could happen.) If we mistakenly took the hockey stick seriously — that is, if we believed that natural fluctuations in climate are small — then we might conclude (mistakenly) that the cooling could not be just a random fluctuation on top of a long-term warming trend, since according to the hockey stick, such fluctuations are negligible. And that might lead in turn to the mistaken conclusion that global warming predictions are a lot of hooey. If, on the other hand, we reject the hockey stick, and recognize that natural fluctuations can be large, then we will not be misled by a few years of random cooling.”

A few years of random cooling = a fifteen year pause?

He then admits he predicted nothing:

O.K., I didnÂ’t actually predict a pause in the warming but a possible period of cooling. But thatÂ’s close enough.

Um, no it's not. All you "predicted" was that overly confident cocksure predictions might blow up in the predictor's face (especially if they're based on bullshit!), which any number of charlatans and Astrologers throughout history could have told you.

That's why they write Astrological Forecasts vaguely.

Apparently a Scientific Prediction now consists of:

(It could happen.)

And also of conflating a "few years of random cooling" with "a sustained decade-and-a-half of no warming at all."

We are now in that pause...

The pause he didn't predict but is still implying he did, by calling it "that pause," the one I predicted.

No you didn't. You admitted that, briefly, then went right back to asserting what you'd already conceded as false.

...and too many people are taking it too seriously[.]

Ahem. I think too many people are taking your Finagler's Constant nonsense seriously, including yourself.

The guy wants credit for a prediction he never made.

"Science."

I don't know what to say.

Speaking of 2004 Predictions... In early 2004, a foul-mouthed time-traveling Baloney sandwich named Johnny Coldcuts predicted a 4-0 Red Sox World Series sweep.

No seriously I -- through my alter ego of Johnny Coldcuts -- actually predicted that.

I used "Science."

Which, in some cases, looks very much like a silly guess.

The New Science of Global Warming: Flatbush Joe writes:

NYT Science: Sometimes Global Warming Takes A Pause

Also, Every so often, the universe decides to take a moderate siesta. Instead of tossing you impossible to hit curve and knuckle balls -- in the form of deeply challenging alignments -- suddenly you are given a break to either relax or take a couple of giant leaps forward. The key vibration in the early going today revolves around a grand triangle in water signs where the Moon in Cancer trines Saturn in Scorpio (7:57AM) as well as Chiron in Pisces (9:22AM). Saturn is the ruling planet of chronological time while Chiron is in charge of synchronistic time. When both Saturn and Chiron have a resonance with -- potentially on this day when the Moon is linking up to both of them -- then strange forces can be unleashed that propel you into a fifth dimension often known as the twilight zone. Thus, be on the lookout for oddities, quirky conditions, twists of fate, omens, enigmas, and maverick figures that may hold essential clues to what directions to follow right now.

Trust Science, [Mofos]!

There's a good explanation for this form of "Science" -- Barnum Statements.

RiverC. explains it in a different way.

retcon

This is a retcon. Retconning is where you go back and change things as if they always were that way, and claim that they always were that way, even and despite contrary evidence.

Yes, like when you announce that a character on a show has a long-lost presumed-dead brother despite having already announced he was an Only Child.

Frasier Crane was claimed to be an only child on Cheers, before it was retconned that he had a brother named Niles for the Frasier show.

And we're not supposed to notice this backfilling and retconning is Slightly at odds with their previous claims that they had it All Worked Out Down To the Tiniest Details, Yo.

Posted by: Ace at 11:14 AM | Comments (318)
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Bubble Boys: Most Republicans Vote For Cloture, Joining 100% United Democratic Caucus
— Ace

Isn't that strange? The Democrats all voted for cloture. Almost as if cloture keeps ObamaCare alive. And almost as if uniting around a core promise made to your voters is a good thing, or something.

Here are the Republicans in the Bubble, who apparently do not talk to anyone except themselves and some ckufwitted "political consultants" who have done nothing but shit gold bars so far so of course you want to take their spreadsheets as the Word of God:

Alexander
Ayotte
Barrasso
Blunt
Boozman
Burr
Chambliss
Chiesa
Coats
Coburn
Cochran
Collins
Corker
Cornyn
Graham
Hatch
Hoeven
Isakson
Johanns
Johnson
Kirk
McCain
McConnell
Murkowski
Thune
Wicker

At some point, when they've been primaried out or simply lost their careers due to lack of voter interest, perhaps they'll realize, "Hey, maybe I should have once in a while listened to the people who vote me into office. Just heard them out. Rather than conceiving them as Imbecile Monstrous Children who Must Be Taught a Lesson so they know Who's In Charge."

Only 19 Republicans voted No on cloture.

19: Vitter,Paul,Lee,Cruz,Crapo,Enzi,Fischer,
Roberts,Scott,Heller,Grassley, Toomey,Moran, Rubio
, Shelby,Risch,Inhofe, Portman, Sessions

— Byron York (@ByronYork) September 27, 2013

Severe Overstatement? One guy I respect an awful lot, Ron Johnson, voted for cloture, making me doubt my strident tone. Coburn too.

I could give a rat's ass about the rest of them.

Posted by: Ace at 10:05 AM | Comments (576)
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Nairobi Westgate Terror Attack Demonstrates New Level in Cultural Psycopathy
— Ace

"Warriors," much like Jeffrey Dahmer, John Wayne Gacy, Richard Speck, and Ed Gein were "warriors."

Soldiers told of the horrific torture meted out by terrorists in the Nairobi mall massacre yesterday with claims hostages were dismembered, had their eyes gouged out and were left hanging from hooks in the ceiling.

Men were said to have been castrated and had fingers removed with pliers before being blinded and hanged.

Children were found dead in the food court fridges with knives still embedded in their bodies, it was claimed.

...

‘You find people with hooks hanging from the roof,’ said one Kenyan doctor, who asked not to be named.

‘They removed eyes, ears, nose. They get your hand and sharpen it like a pencil then they tell you to write your name with the blood.

‘They drive knives inside a child’s body.

'Actually if you look at all the bodies, unless those ones that were escaping, fingers are cut by pliers, the noses are ripped by pliers. Here it was pain.Â’

A soldier, who took pictures at a bread counter and at the ArtCaffe, said he was so traumatised by what he saw he has had to seek counselling.

Pictures at the Daily Mail, only the first of which is bloody. It does not show the sort of psychopathic Torture Porn things described.

This account is so baroque and impossible I have trouble believing it. But it's hard for me to imagine this is some kind of government propaganda -- because the horrors described tend to show the government in a bad light.

The Kenyan government is already faulted for taking four days to clear the mall of psychopaths; the story only gets worse when one hears the psychopaths were taking their sweet old time cutting people's noses off, cutting eyes out of faces, and hanging victims by hooks.

Posted by: Ace at 09:41 AM | Comments (257)
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Ahh, an open thread
— Purple Avenger

With that lilac'y fresh spring rain smell. more...

Posted by: Purple Avenger at 08:56 AM | Comments (281)
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Friday Morning News Dump
— Pixy Misa

• Obamacare Will Shatter Labor Union Healthcare Benefits
  
• Goldberg: Opposing Obamacare Isn't Anarchy
  
• Why Should Congress Get Special Exemption Under Obamacare?
  
• Obamacare Sticker Shock In Nebraska
  
• The Missing Millions
  
• Horrific Scenes Of Torture Emerge From Kenyan Mall Massacre
  
• 7 Adorable Animals Sad About Obamacare
  
• Russia Wins, Gets Watered Down Syria Resolution
  
• Malthus At The Movies
  
• The Democrats Are Literally Trying To Get Republicans Killed
  
• The Science Used To Be Settled
  
• The Iranian Moderate
  
• Rahm Punts On Pension Reform
  
• New Jersey's Disappearing Doctors
  
• Six Lies Most People Believe About US Schools
  
• Air Force's F-16 Drone Makes Its Debut
  
• Retiring Abroad Is Heating Up
  
• I Guess The Mind Sees What It Wants To See
  
• Miss Teen USA's Computer Camera Hacked And Nude Pics Were Taken
  
• Exit Sandman
  

Posted by: Pixy Misa at 05:29 AM | Comments (655)
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