This poll is very interesting.

For some time everyone's been wondering: Since Bush's poll numbers have slipped so dramatically (and, for him, so dangerously), why isn't Kerry ahead in the polls?

Maybe this answers that question:

June 1, 2004--Fifty-four percent (54%) of American voters say that they would consider voting for George W. Bush under certain circumstances. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 2,000 Likely Voters finds that 39% will not vote for the President under any circumstances.

As for Senator Kerry, 49% say they would consider voting for him while 39% definitely would not.

These results come at a time when the candidates have been locked in a dead heat for months. Ninety-one percent (91%) of those who would consider voting for Kerry already plan to vote for him. Just 3% of those who would consider Kerry are currently planning to vote for Bush.

However, just 81% of those who would consider voting for Bush are planning to vote for him at this time. Another 10% of these potential supporters are currently planning to vote for Kerry.

In other words, the more people who would consider voting for Kerry are already planning on voting for him.

Which is actually good news for Bush. He's got more upside. Kerry's getting 91% of those inclined to vote for him, while Bush is only getting 81% of those inclined to vote for him. Kerry can add another 9% of those inclined to vote for him, Bush double that. And a bigger absolute number of folks could possibly vote for Bush, too.

Plus, there's the obvious: If only 49% say they'd even consider voting for John Kerry, his ceiling can't be much higher than 49%. Yes, things could change, of course; but he'd need them to change. He can't easily win an election when, on his best possible day, he can only garner a minority of the votes. He could win, of course; but it's tricky.

Now here's a real shock that not only throws conventional wisdom out the window, it then jumps out the window as well in order to shout homophobic obsenities at conventional wisdom as it plunges to the street:

However, among those who are currently undecided, 64% would consider voting for Bush and 48% would consider voting for Kerry. These figures challenge the conventional wisdom that undecideds will break for the challenger.

For some time I've thought that Bush's low approval ratings might be indicative of voters' current sentiments -- "You're kinda screwing things up, George" -- but not actually indicative of their voting inclinations. I thought that because Kerry couldn't seem to gain on Bush even at the worst bad-news cycle of his Presidency. These findings would seem to be additional evidence for that.

Posted by: Ace at 12:24 PM | Comments (5)
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A larger version of this photo, above the fold, three-quarters of the width of the broadsheet-- runs on today's New York Times page one.

With all the anger over the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison, the scandal has deepened another reality for hundreds of Iraqi families — possibly thousands: a searing uncertainty over missing loved ones.

The accompanying article is full of surprising details, like the fact that the fates of many terrorists fighting a war against the US remain unclear, and that people who knew these solid citizens are very very sad about that:

Khraisan al-Aballi and his 80-year-old father were taken into custody, and for 10 days, he contends, he was tortured: stripped naked and forced to stand and kneel for hours; kicked and beaten with a stick; ordered to confess with a gun to his head.

The charge, he said, was that the family had been harboring one of Iraq's former vice presidents, Izzat Ibrahim — a man Mr. Aballi said he had never met.

Well, if he said so, then you've got a point!

A year later, Mr. Aballi still has the marks from the handcuffs on his wrists, as well as a deep scar of anger at Americans who he says moved too quickly from suspicion to torture and have not respected Iraqis enough to provide information as basic as whether his brother is alive or dead.

Hmmm... the man's body displays no outward physical evidence of abuse, apart from marks from handcuffs.

But this dilligent New York Times reporter looks deeper, and sees a wound that can never heal: "a deep scar of anger at Americans."

They're angling for another Pulitzer.

Note: Somehow this news-free non-story, which credulously prints up the claims of terrorists and terrorist-enablers as uncontroverted fact, slipped by the New York Times' famously conservative cadre of right-wing editors.

Posted by: Ace at 12:01 PM | Comments (6)
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What a shock.

But this is important. Because, whenever a poll of journalists comes out showing them to be very liberal, they always claim that the "editors and owners and management" are in fact very conservative, thus balancing things out.

There is no evidence I've seen for this proposition. Liberals make this argument not because there's evidence for it, but because there's less evidence against it. They can't argue that reporters aren't liberal -- there's too much data for that -- so they just invent "facts" about the political inclinations of a less-well-documented group, the famously conservative editors, owners, and managers of the media.

Well, guess what? It turns out that the management of the world's biggest media organization, AOLTimeWarner, gives 73% of its political donations to, yes, Democrats. Only 26% of donations go to Republicans. (See last paragraph, under sub-hed "Ownership.")

So, let's take stock. Reporters are overwhelmingly liberal. The management/owners are overwhelmingly liberal.

But, I guess, editors -- who were, of course, all reporters before being promoted to editors, going to same schools, from the same social class, having the same class biases of reporters -- are all "super-duper conservatives" who balance out the overwhelming liberal tilt of both reporters and owners/management.

Appparently when a reporter is promoted to editor he is forced to join the NRA, tear up his Sierra Club membership card, and become a born-again Christian, even if Jewish or Muslim.

Posted by: Ace at 11:54 AM | Add Comment
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"That sounds about right," say industry insiders

N E W Y O R K -- Al Franken, the bespectacled bonehead who hosts the O'Franken Report for Air America, has agreed to work at the fledling fiasco without salary until the station becomes financially solvent or else goes out of business, whichever comes sooner.

Which will, of course, be the second one.

Franken is best known for his "Stuart Smalley" character, whose foray into film raked in an astonishing $950,000, making it the top-grossing film starring a former member of the "Franken and Davis Show."

Stuart Saves His Family did stunning business at the box-office, taking in a haul that put it just thirty or forty million dollars shy of turning a profit. "Had the film made twenty million dollars more," Franken agent said, "people would be talking about Al as the new Chris Kattan, or at least the new Tim Kazurinsky."

Franken's show continues to be the highest-rated program on the Air America radio "network," which is a "network" in the same sense that you and your drinkin' buddy "Stinky" constitute a "network." Franken's ratings have zoomed in the past month, and the show is now rated number 6 in the New York market in the key demographic of 54-55 year old female abortion-services providers who own more that five Paula Cole albums.

In what a Franken spokesperson hails as a "triumph," Franken's ratings have now passed the ratings for non-Spanish speakers who accidentally listen to Spanish-language stations because they misprogrammed their cars' digital tuner and now have all ten presets set to Ola! Con Nina y "El Jalapeno."

"These numbers show absolutely remarkable growth," Franken's spokescreature said. "Within a month, we'll pass our key competitor, Channel D."

Channel D is a non-commercial bandwidth reserved for radio communications between security guards.

Air America celebrated the latest good news by throwing a party at one of New York's most exclusive restaurants, the 68th Street Bennigan's. The partygoers further saved station resources by skipping out on the bill.

"If Al Franken can work without a salary, so can the Bennigan's corporation," fellow host Lizz Winstead remarked. "We've all got to do our bit for progressive politics and social justice."

Lisa, the waitress who served them, disagrees, and says she wants to at least be tipped for her service. When asked if she harbors any hard feelings towards Al Franken, she turns quizzically and says, "Who?"

Posted by: Ace at 10:48 AM | Comments (15)
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Data show economy roaring at record levels:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. factories cranked up output in May and construction spending surged to a third straight record high in April, according to reports on Tuesday that showed the economy gathering speed.

A measure of factory employment jumped to the highest level in 31 years as the nation's factories marked a full year of recovery, raising hopes for a strong gain in manufacturing jobs in Friday's national payrolls report.

Taken together, the data supported the case for a Federal Reserve rate rise later this month.

However, a third report gave a more subdued view of the job market in May, as the number of planned layoffs rose for the second month in a row.

There's always somethin'.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 62.8 in May from 62.4 the prior month, beating expectations of a small decline to 62.0. The index was not far off its two-decade high of 63.6 reached in January.

"Manufacturing activity has gone from being the U.S. economy's laggard to one of the driving forces behind the current recovery," said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service.

"That big jump by the employment index for the month of May favors another reading on payroll employment which exceeds expectations," he added. The job component rose to 61.9 in May -- the highest since April 1973 -- from 57.8 the prior month.

Markets are awaiting Friday's May payrolls report, which is expected to show an increase of around 216,000 non-farm jobs and seal the case for an official rate rise at the Fed's late June meeting.

Cowbell. Made in the USA.

Posted by: Ace at 09:32 AM | Comments (10)
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