After the surprise Democratic debacle in the 2002 elections, some FoxNews contributor -- maybe William Kristol -- made me cackle with evil glee.

He said, "The boring part of the election is over. Now comes the fun part-- the recriminations."

As they say, it's funny. It's funny and it's true.

It's too early to cackle, but we can at least allow ourselves a cautious grin about rumors of turmoil and recriminations in the Kerry camp. And when I say "rumors," I mean that word as it is usually used in politics, i.e., meaning "uncontroverible fact."

Bob Shrum and Mary Beth Cahill seem to be on the chopping block. I wonder if Kerry will recall Jim Jordan, who's currently "independently" running a liberal 527.

Even more delicious is that Charlie Cook -- he of the much-respected although liberal-leaning Cook Political Report -- has completely recanted his predictions of a Kerry win, which were (of course) trumpeted by Oliver Willis and Josh Marshall a month ago.

I doubt they'll be saying much about this re-evaluation:

It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change. Three weeks ago, most political insiders in both parties gave Sen. John Kerry a slight edge over President Bush ...

Also: Read down to the Zogby polling (next item). Likely undecided voters favor Bush over Kerry by 35-10, when all the minor party candidates are factored in.

Posted by: Ace at 10:46 AM | Comments (11)
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That's Chicago, Illinois, and not, say, Chicago, Jordan or Chicago, Syria.

But there's no link between Saddam and terrorism. None. As Michael Moore's powerful, courageous film instructs us, the IIS spent all of its days flying beautiful kites for the delight of Iraqi children.

Coming Democratic Spin: Sleeping is not a threat. In fact, it's very healthful.

Posted by: Ace at 10:19 AM | Comments (6)
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Also via Instapundit, who has a really good line about the French, this article by
Belmont Club suggesting that the French are attempting to offer concessions to the terrorists to gain the freedom of the kidnapped Frenchmen.

It's pretty shadowy and vague as to what they're offering, exactly. It seems they're chiefly seeking to force us or Iraq itself to offer concessions. If so, this would represent a important new weapon in the French diplomatic arsenal, the surrender-by-proxy.

They're not merely cowards; they're passive-aggresive cowards. "I'm not saying you should surrender," they're cooing. "I'm just saying I'll be very disappointed if you don't, and I may begin withholding sex."

Again, if the French are appeasing these bastards and the Liberal Establishment Media ever deigns to reveal that to the public , John Forbes Kerry's talk of our "important allies" will seem even more ludicrous that it does now.

Posted by: Ace at 10:14 AM | Comments (1)
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Glenn Reynolds has a good TCS column about the Fall of the Establishment Liberal Media.

The article is a bit triumphal, but I'm not sure that overstates it at this point. The media did everything in its power to suppress/conceal the SwiftVets story, but they failed. Abysmally, in fact, and at some cost to their already-diminished credibility.

The monopoly has been challenged, and the monopolists are behaving in predictable ways to that challenge. The alternative media/internet/radio etc. are nowhere close to replacing the Establishment Liberal Media, of course, but it's a major success when an upstart merely begins scoring the occasional victory over a monopolist.

Way back when, I wrote an article stating that the conservative blogosphere had yet to play a significant role in pushing any story into the mainstream. I think it's done so twice now, first regarding that Northwestern flight with the oddly behaving Syrian musicians, and now with the Swifties. True, the Swifties were very compelling on their own, and true, a non-blogger (Drudge) did almost all the heavy internet lifting when he blared this story for 24 hours, but the conservative blogosphere did seem to help push the story into the forefront of the public consciousness.

Not bad. And, as regards the Establishment Liberal Media, it's only getting worse.

Linked by "Shadowy Connections:" Larry Sabato, Brit Hume, and Rather Biased note that CBS sanitized its coverage of the NY protestors, featuring veterans and little old ladies rather than the stinky, profanity-screaming perpetual college-student anarchists which made up 80% of the crowds.

Posted by: Ace at 10:03 AM | Comments (6)
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Ron Silver. Speaks fluent Mandarin. He's no dumb actor, either; he is, I think, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and he's been on consular missions to China.

Trouble is, I fucking hate this guy, and I always will. I look at this guy talking about winning the war on terror, and the only thing I can think of is that sleazy senator he played in Timecop.

Nice guy? Brave guy? Smart guy? This fucker killed Jean Claude Van Damme's wife, the delectable Mia Sara. What, we're all of a sudden just giving people a pass for that?

Sorry. Not this cowboy. Not on my watch.

But seriously, this was great stuff:

We will never forgive. Never forget. Never excuse!

At the end of World War II, General Douglas MacArthur, Supreme Allied
Commander of the South Pacific, said:

"It is my earnest hope - indeed the hope of all mankind - that from this
solemn occasion a better world shall emerge out of the blood and carnage of
the past, a world found upon faith and understanding, a world dedicated to the
dignity of man and the fulfillment of his most cherished wish for freedom,
tolerance and justice."

...

This is a war we did not seek.

This is a war waged against us.

This is a war to which we had to respond.

History shows that we are not imperialists . . . but we are fighters for freedom and democracy.

Even though I am a well-recognized liberal on many issues confronting our
society today, I find it ironic that many human rights advocates and outspoken members of my own entertainment community are often on the front lines to protest repression, for which I applaud them but they are usually the first ones to oppose any use of force to take care of these horrors that they
catalogue repeatedly.

Somewhere in New York, Danny Glover just said "Fuck Ron Silver."

Danny Glover says that now. But he was conspicuously silent about Mia Sara's murder, wasn't he?

Posted by: Ace at 11:38 PM | Comments (8)
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So suggests this article. It's sort of vague, but it seems that the Bush camp suggested this. The most recent poll, cited in the article, has Kerry up by three.

I don't know... I remember the days of "Bush within striking distance of winning California" in 2000. I wouldn't call these sorts of statements lies; they're tactical bluffs. I think Michigan actually is pretty doable-- its unemployment rate is now pretty low -- but I will have no more of Karl Rove's much-vaunted "internal polling."

Hooey on his internal polling. Hooey I say.

Related by "Shadowy Connections": If the pollster John Zogby really believes Kerry's up by 4.5 as his most recent poll "shows," why is his brother -- Arab-American lobbyist James Zogby -- crying about Kerry being behind?

Don't these guys talk?

Posted by: Ace at 11:11 PM | Comments (9)
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Dummocrats.com suggests that Bush's "boldness" may come from his endorsement of the (minor) push to eliminate the IRS.

I don't know. That to me qualifies as "likely to be expensive." Furthermore, any regime which attempted to tax only consumption would require some big bureaucracy to calculate tax credits for the poor (as consumption-only taxes are very regressive without some adjustment/credit/refund) that would end up looking a lot like the current IRS.

In fact, since the plan would be revenue-neutral, I wonder how much different it would be from the standing regime for most taxpayers. If the IRS is "gone" but we install a consumption-based regime with a big bureaucracy that ends up taking in just as many tax dollars as the current system, what have we actually gained? Seems like a lot of costly bureaucratic shaking-up to come up with a system based on an alternative theory of taxation but which broadly mimics the current one.

OTOH, it would be "bold."

I don't know. It's possible, but it smells like a desperate political stunt to me.

Posted by: Ace at 03:55 PM | Comments (36)
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The Washington Post/ABCNews poll confirms what just about every other major poll has found, namely, that Bush is now ahead for the first time in months. The lead is as slender as Michael Moore is not (48-47), but the important thing is that he is in fact ahead, and he he is rebounding.

Strangely enough, the only major poll not showing Bush ahead is the arch-conservative super-pro-GOP FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Poll, which shows the race a tie.

Oh, and Zogby shows him behind by 4 points, of course.

He heaps me! He tasks me! If Captain Ahab thought it hurt to lose his leg to that albino devil-fish, pitty the poor liberal ABCNews reporter who had to write this hateful analysis:

Aug. 30, 2004— The ice in the river is thick, but the currents have moved in President Bush's direction.

As his nominating convention kicks off, an ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Bush has erased most of John Kerry's gains on issues and attributes alike, retaking a sizable lead in trust to handle terrorism, moving ahead on Iraq and battling the Democratic presidential nominee to parity on the economy — the three top issues of the 2004 campaign.

Bush also has reclaimed an advantage in being seen as more honest and trustworthy, bolstered his rating for strong leadership and moved to a 10-point lead as better qualified to serve as commander in chief, erasing Kerry's edge in the latter after his convention late last month.

Oddly enough, the ABCNews says that Bush is merely tied (48-4 among likely voters, which either means that he's doing better among registered voters or else ABCNews has a different "likely voter" formula than the Washington Post (with whom this joint poll was conducted).

Posted by: Ace at 03:39 PM | Comments (1)
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(ranked in order of ascending importance)

10. Scoring front-row tickets to a Madonna concert and enough Ecstacy to make it through all of her new shit without falling asleep

9. Winning a victory in the War on Terror, and thereby safeguarding and securing the very continued existance of our civilization

8. Ikea

7. Collecting enough money in the "bandwidth fund" to buy that adorable cobalt-blue PT Cruiser with the kitschy-cute leatherette seats (categorized in the accounting-books as a "physical-transport bandwidth upgrade")

6. His treasured tool-box filled with sketch-pads, sketching pencils, charcoals, and watercolors; or, as he calls them, his "Tools of the Soul"

5. Delighting over the pro-metrosexual subtext of Goofus and Gallant cartoons ("Goofus goes out with a head of hair that can break a rake/Gallant uses Paul Mitchell styling gel to sculpt his "fauxhawk" doo; Goofus watches television all night/Gallant reads Oscar Wilde and weightlifting magazines")

4. His three beloved beagles, named Reagan, Thatcher, and Mr. McFloppyears

3. The annual Provincetown "Top-Hats & White Spats" Ball

2. That a socially liberal "conservative" party will one day form, led by John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Rudy Guilliani, and disco diva Kylie Minogue

...and the Number One Thing Which is Important to Andrew Sullivan...

1. Electing a President who bravely, candidly, and forthrightly states his support for Sullivan's "right" to marry a man; or, barring that, then electing John Forbes Kerry

Posted by: Ace at 12:02 PM | Comments (26)
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Although I still think Bush adds, at most, 1 point to his polling after the convention, there may be some reason to hope for a bit better than that.

Larry Sabato, who's been down on Bush's chances for months, now thinks there may be a bounce:

Moreover, isn't Bush having a mild semi-revival? Just about everyone agrees that the president has been helped a bit by the Swift Boat Veterans controversy, but there is more going on just beneath the surface. After a sustained period of public opinion disaster for Bush, he is inching back up in several surveys, including the Los Angeles Times Poll and the NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll, taking a narrow lead over Kerry after weeks of being behind the Democrat. (Sure, the earlier and the current polls all show statistical ties, but it's difficult not to pay attention when the big dogs of polling all move in the same direction at once.) It might be the public has become less enamored with John Kerry, especially on national security, and as a result, has returned--however reluctantly and/or temporarily--to George Bush.

We're engaged in pure speculation here, but if our guess is correct, might not Bush's small surge reinforce the natural high tide created by a party convention? The confluence of these two minor shifts could create a rare historical phenomenon: a convention bounce that is greater for the incumbent than for the challenger.

Trouble is, most of the undecideds are female and anti-Bush, so the few undecideds out there are more than likely going to break heavily for Kerry, no matter what happens. (The Bush camp claims it's internal polls show differently.)

But the Bush Bounce Theory has much stronger evidence going against it.

To wit, Dick Morris is predicting a Bush will get a bounce; historically, the predictions of Dick Morris have been chiefly indicative of what won't happen.

Some bits of Dick Morris' bad news:

So where is all this heading? If Bush uses his convention skillfully to highlight his homeland-security record and uses Sen. Zell Miller, his keynoter, to attack Kerry's Senate record, he should emerge in great shape.

After four days of Republican rhetoric, it is not fanciful to hope that Bush ends up with an 8- to 10-point margin over Kerry — 52-53 percent for Bush vs. 43-44 percent for Kerry.

Aaaaaargggghhh! Bank on Bush losing a point or two.

After the convention? Expect the lead to shrink a bit in the early days of September, but to grow to robust proportions again when the "third convention" is held — the anniversary of 9/11.

Thank Goodness! Expect Bush to regain the lead and to see that lead grow.

Spurred by the emotion and patriotism that will surround this grim annual event, Bush will probably take a good size lead into the debates that begin in mid-September and run until early October.

How will Bush do in the debates? My bet is: quite well. Will Kerry be able to close in October? My bet is: yes, but not all the way. But that uncertainty is what makes politics fun, especially this year.

Had Morris actually predicted a Bush win, I'd've been certain of his defeat.

Thankfully, he commits himself to no such prediction.

Thanks for keeping vague, Dick. I appreciate it.

Posted by: Ace at 11:02 AM | Comments (4)
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