If only we'd surrendered to them when Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi wanted:

The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.

But as the White House and its military commanders plan the next phase of the war, other officials have cautioned against taking what they see as a premature step that could create strategic and political difficulties for the United States. Such a declaration could fuel criticism that the Iraq conflict has become a civil war in which U.S. combat forces should not be involved. At the same time, the intelligence community, and some in the military itself, worry about underestimating an enemy that has shown great resilience in the past.

"I think it would be premature at this point," a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains "the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks." Earlier periods of optimism, such as immediately following the June 2006 death of AQI founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a U.S. air raid, not only proved unfounded but were followed by expanded operations by the militant organization.

There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group's signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a "cascade effect," leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The deployment of more U.S. and Iraqi forces into AQI strongholds in Anbar province and the Baghdad area, as well as the recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters to combat AQI operatives in those locations, has helped to deprive the militants of a secure base of operations, U.S. military officials said. "They are less and less coordinated, more and more fragmented," Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq, said recently. Describing frayed support structures and supply lines, Odierno estimated that the group's capabilities have been "degraded" by 60 to 70 percent since the beginning of the year.

...

"AQI is definitely taking some hits," the official said. "There is definite progress, and that is undeniable good news. But what we don't know is how long it will last . . . and whether it's sustainable. . . . They have withstood withering pressure for a long period of time." Three months, he said, is not long enough to consider a trend sustainable.

Views of the extent to which AQI has been vanquished also reflect differences over the extent to which it operates independently from Osama bin Laden's central al-Qaeda organization, based in Pakistan. "Everyone has an opinion about how franchisement of al-Qaeda works," a senior White House official said. "Is it through central control, or is it decentralized?" The answer to that question, the official said, affects "your ability to determine how successfully [AQI] has been defeated or neutralized. Is it 'game over'?"

...

While a victory declaration might have the "psychological aspect" of discouraging recruitment to a perceived lost cause, the White House official said, advantages overall would be minimal. "I recognize that there are pros to saying, 'Hey, listen, the bad guys are on the run.' " But if AQI were later able to demonstrate residual capabilities with a series of bombings, "even though it was temporary," he said, "the question becomes: How does this play out in terms of public opinion?"

Some military commanders want to declare AQ "all but eliminated," but that seems partly motivated by a desire to bug out faster and get the military some much needed, and much deserved, downtime. I can understand the impulse, but a military defeat caused by a premature evacuation would break the military as much as an extended period of overtaxing.

Posted by: Ace at 09:29 AM | Comments (18)
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This is fun:

Toward the end of the forum, Giuliani took a question from a young audience member, who asked if he had a plan if there was something "living on another planet and it's bad and it comes over here." Giuliani smiled, shook his hand, and noted he's never faced such a question before. "We'll be prepared for anything that happens," Giuliani said.

Any minute now I expect John "I'm still in the race, damnit!" McCain to denounce Giuliani's racism in the face of peace-loving aliens who just want to pick lettuce for $40 an hour.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 08:33 AM | Comments (21)
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A report authored by the American Cancer Society and government scientists concludes that death rates from cancer in the U.S. are falling.

Much of the improvement is attributed to earlier detection and treatment of colorectal cancer, the number 2 cancer killer in the U.S. They point to 2002 as a significant turning point, with death rates dropping 2.1 percent a year (up from 1.1 percent a year from 1993 to 2001).

Fewer diagnoses are reported because they are catching more of it before it becomes cancer.

I'd guess anecdotally each of us knows someone who's fought cancer. Some of us have lost someone dear to us from that awful disease, one form or another. This is one you can stop if you're willing to put up with the annoyance of screening. As 50 gets closer, I'll do it. I have friends who started checking earlier because of family history.

I would encourage all you morons to do likewise.

Posted by: Dave In Texas at 07:56 AM | Comments (24)
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While Republicans in the Senate have been giving Harry Reid trouble over the federal DREAM Act (finally, some backbone!), California Republicans have been waiting to see what Governor Schwarzenegger would do with this year's state version of the bill. On Saturday, he vetoed it.

Unlike the federal version, the California DREAM Act couldn't provide amnesty or amnesty-lite benefits. Instead, it was aimed at forcing California universities to give illegal aliens in-state tuition rates.

Pointing out that some illegal aliens already qualify for in-state tuition under existing law, Schwarzenegger cited (PDF) growing costs of higher education and the fiscal irresponsibility of putting the burden for a new entitlement on the state budget.

Of course, where there are Republicans acting on illegal immigration, there are leftists not far behind yelling "RACIST" as hard as their marijuana-addled lungs will let them. The name of this group caught my eye:

“The governor has just bowed to the racist wing of the Republican Party. California needs a larger and more diverse workforce to prosper and we can’t continue to relegate Latinos to second class status,” said Yvette Felarca, Northern California coordinator of the Coalition to Defend Affirmative Action, Integration and Immigrant Rights and Fight for Equality By Any Means Necessary.

Their faculty adviser really should have pointed out that names that fit on bumperstickers are more effective and less likely to make people snicker. (Yes, I realize that's a nation-wide activist group, but you just know there's a leftist faculty adviser hiding in the background.)

I think we must be making progress, though. Felarca did manage to limit her slur to just the "racist wing" of the GOP, thus implying that we're not all of us racists.

MORE: Leftists like Ms. Felarca really need to get a clue about this whole racism thing. Activists are just phonin' it in these days. Got an issue you need to raise money for? Just call racist. Want your name in the papers? Just call racist.

Here's a hint for the Felarcas out there: giving a group of people better (or worse) treatment on account of its race or ethnicity would be racist. Restricting a benefit on account of legal residency (so long as legal residency isn't itself restricted by race) has nothing whatsoever to do with race.

As much as Felarca would like to claim that Latinos in California are relegated to "second-class status," she's missed the point. Illegal alien Latinos have been denied a benefit (and all the other illegal aliens, too). To the extent she's conflated illegal aliens and Latinos, she's guilty of just what she accuses us: racism.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 07:48 AM | Comments (17)
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Last week it was announced that Navy SEAL Lt. Michael Murphy would be awarded the Medal of Honor for his service and sacrifice in Afghanistan. You’d think that would be big news but not so much.

While some papers did carry stories on this American hero, one major (for now) paper has not…the New York Times. This is inexcusable on many levels but consider for a moment that Lt. Murphy was a Long Island native. This is a local story for the Times.

Michele Malkin put it best when she wrote, “If Lt. Murphy had been accused of war crimes, you can bet where the NYTimes would have placed the news. Front and center.”

The bastards at the Times can’t go out of business quickly enough for me.

Posted by: DrewM. at 07:07 AM | Comments (17)
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Last week it was announced that Navy SEAL Lt. Michael Murphy would be awarded the Medal of Honor for his service and sacrifice in Afghanistan. YouÂ’d think that would be big news but not so much.

While some papers did carry stories on this American hero, one major (for now) paper has notÂ…the New York Times. This is inexcusable on many levels but consider for a moment that Lt. Murphy was a Long Island native. This is a local story for the Times.

Michele Malkin put it best when she wrote, “If Lt. Murphy had been accused of war crimes, you can bet where the NYTimes would have placed the news. Front and center.”

The bastards at the Times canÂ’t go out of business quickly enough for me.

Posted by: DrewM at 07:07 AM | Comments (18)
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Gray is a professor of meteorology at Colorado State and is recognized as a pioneer in the field of hurricane forecasting.

I think itÂ’s safe to say he isnÂ’t down with the idea of man made Global Warming.

"We're brainwashing our children," said Dr Gray, 78, a long-time professor at Colorado State University. "They're going to the Gore movie [An Inconvenient Truth] and being fed all this. It's ridiculous."

Â…

"The human impact on the atmosphere is simply too small to have a major effect on global temperatures," Dr Gray said.

He said his beliefs had made him an outsider in popular science.

"It bothers me that my fellow scientists are not speaking out against something they know is wrong," he said. "But they also know that they'd never get any grants if they spoke out. I don't care about grants."

Gray better be careful, heresy like that used to get people burned at the stake.

Posted by: DrewM. at 06:29 AM | Comments (17)
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A rather large dose of it.

You may have seen stories here or there on the blogs but Dan Collins does a hell of a job rounding it all up. A big post, but at least just skim the headlines.

It's actually beginning to look... well, pretty winnable.

Thanks to CJ.

Bonus: Bad New From Iraq That Seems To Be 100% Fake: A Cleveland paper reports 10 men in a 12 man squad were killed -- decimated -- by an Iraqi youth with a suicide belt.

The military's current estimate of the casualties in this incident: 0

The military's current estimate of the likelihood such a bombing occured at all: 0

Mulitple layers of painstaking blah blah blah.

Posted by: Ace at 07:12 PM | Comments (31)
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It's science.

Maastricht University awarded David Levy a PhD for a thesis entitled Intimate Relationships with Artificial Partners.

Mr Levy wrote: "Trends in robotics and shifting attitudes on marriage are likely to result in sophisticated robots that will eventually be seen as suitable marriage partners.

In a setback for AoSHQ readers, a body pillow with a picture of Anna Kournikova pinned to it is still not legally considered a robot.

Posted by: Open Blog at 06:55 PM | Comments (46)
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According to sources in the Kremlin. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Mohammed Ali Hosseini denied it, and blamed Iran's "adversaries" for spreading the story.

Keep an eye on the Russian-Iranian connection. This is a, what's the expression I'm looking for? A "bad thing".

Posted by: Dave In Texas at 06:54 PM | Comments (14)
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