The lead had been eight (which I forgot to mention on Sunday and Monday), then it was six, now it's four.

Allah notes the state polls show bad news -- but these always seem to be trailing indicators. Just the same as the state polls showed McCain still ahead even as his national lead was disappearing.

Although it doesn't seem to make sense, state polls only seem to reflect trends first spotted in national polls three or four days earlier.

I continue being baffled by the poll bounce at all. I'm not in the tank about these things -- I thought Bush either held his own or won against Gore. I think my sentiment was shared by the majority of the public. I thought Bush lost badly to Kerry, at least on points and such, and at least in the one debate I really watched. (The other one I watched in a debate "party" in a bar and couldn't really evaluate.) The public, I think, either agreed that Bush lost, or didn't think he lost all that much. Either way, I wasn't overly jazzed about Bush.

So this last debate: I thought McCain really demolished him. How I could have been not only wrong but very wrong, I don't know.

Bradley effect? I was really right but people are too scared to say the skinny black kid with the funny name, as Barack Hussein Obama would say, wasn't really all that "clean and articulate," as Joe Biden would say, after all?

Or maybe it's this thing about Pakistan. McCain's now pot-committed to the losing hand that one shouldn't say we'd violate Pakistan's sovereignty to get bin Ladin (even though, of course, we're doing that right now with mid-level Al Qaeda leaders, and McCain, presumably, supports this), and so he's going to keep on losing on a technically-correct point because the public just wants to hear we'll get bin Ladin.

McCain's kind of painted himself into a rhetorical corner on that. On one hand, he says he'll follow bin Ladin to the gates of hell; on the other hand, he doesn't want to say he'll follow him to the gates of Pakistan. I get why. But does the public? Apparently not.

A Republican is allowing himself to be "out-Bubba'ed," as Clinton would say, which is always a bad thing.

Posted by: Ace at 10:41 AM | Comments (90)
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Not true. Esquire doesn't even have an interview coming up with her at all.

Sheesh. Why does anyone believe anything an anonymous blogger says, anyway?

I'll be in my bunk office, working.

Though it occurs to me: Just because a rumor has been debunked, is that any reason to disbelieve it? Or stop writing about it if it's true? Or stop "raising questions"?

Gay gossip site and antisemitic conspiracy newsletter The Atlantic suggests the answer is a forceful No.

Posted by: Ace at 10:29 AM | Comments (70)
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Severe shortages have been experienced after the hurricanes, particularly in the Southeast, prompting Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue (R) to ask President Bush to release oil from the Strategic Reserve. But that's just showbiz, the issue isn't oil supply, it's getting refineries and the distribution system back online (Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi together are 46% of the nation's refining capacity).

14 refineries shut down in advance of Ike, but most are now producing again and ramping up to full capacity. And the largest fuel pipeline into the south and east is now pumping at pre-storm capacity.

I don't know how many of you morons have had to deal with gas-station lines (it's been a long time since I have), but you won't have to deal with them much longer.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 08:37 AM | Comments (37)
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All the caveats about polls should be assumed here but it is within line with the trend back to Obama.

Overall they have Obama leading McCain 50-43 but there's been a big shift in women voters.

Among the poll's most dramatic findings: McCain is losing female voters faster than Sarah Palin attracted them after the Republican convention. Obama leads McCain by 17 points with women, 55%-38%. Before the conventions, women preferred Obama by a margin of 10 points, 49%-39%. After McCain picked Palin as his running mate, the gap narrowed to a virtual tie, with Obama holding a one point margin, 48%-47%.

Apparently PUMA rage has spent itself.

I think we'll know if McCain is getting spooked if he does something extra-mavericky. I'm not sure what's left other than announcing that he's leaving the Republican party to become an independent but I'm sure he'll think of something if it comes to that.

Posted by: DrewM at 08:24 AM | Comments (127)
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Slublog had this in the headlines last night but it's breaking out so I thought it should get a post.

The book is due out next year on inauguration day. Based on this description of the book, do you think she might have just a wee bit of financial incentive to see Obama win?

In The Breakthrough, veteran journalist Gwen Ifill surveys the American political landscape, shedding new light on the impact of Barack Obama’s stunning presidential campaign and introducing the emerging young African American politicians forging a bold new path to political power…Drawing on interviews with power brokers like Senator Obama, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Vernon Jordan, the Reverend Jesse Jackson, and many others, as well as her own razor-sharp observations and analysis of such issues as generational conflict and the ‘black enough’ conundrum, Ifill shows why this is a pivotal moment in American history.

Follow the link to Michelle Malkin's for more on just how unbelievable this is and Ifill's previous episodes of anti-Republican bias.

BTW- The McCain campaign apparently had no idea she was working on this book despite the fact that it's being promoted and not a secret.

Posted by: DrewM at 06:50 AM | Comments (244)
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Day 3 of the end of the world.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 05:17 AM | Comments (62)
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I knew if I clicked on this review I wouldn't be disappointed.

“Religulous” is directed by Larry Charles, whose credits include “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” and many episodes of HBO’s “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” And the movie has the same loose, on-the-road structure as “Borat.” Much of Mr. Maher’s film is extremely funny in a similarly irreverent, offhanded way. Some true believers — at least those who have a sense of humor about their faith — may even be amused. But most will not.

In a small journalistic coup Mr. Maher interviews a Roman Catholic priest in front of the Vatican, who laughingly agrees with him that the fundamental teachings of the Catholic Church are nonsense that are not to be taken literally. Mr. Maher, unfortunately, doesnÂ’t press him on why he wears priestly vestments and presumes to exert religious authority.

...

His strategy is to coax most of those subjects who are true believers to appear foolish as they offer stumbling, inarticulate responses to his friendly interrogations. The majority of his subjects are easy targets. One such sitting duck is José Luis de Jesús Miranda, a nattily dressed Miami preacher who declares that he is the second coming of Christ and claims that his Growing in Grace ministry has 100,000 followers. Like the fulminating televangelists whose ministries the film glosses over, he comes across as a greedy, self-satisfied charlatan with a fondness for gold.

When Mr. Maher asks Senator Mark Pryor, an Arkansas Democrat and fervent evangelical Christian, why faith is good, he stumbles for an answer. Returning later to Senator Pryor, Mr. Maher suggests that many evangelicals look forward to the end of the world, when it is prophesied that Jesus will return. The senator doesnÂ’t dispute him.

John Westcott, a former homosexual who is now married and the director of Exchange Ministries in Winter Park, Fla., an organization whose mission is to reorient sexuality, can only smile when Mr. Maher reminds him that Jesus never addressed the subject of homosexuality. At a Christian theme park where the passion of Christ is re-enacted in a tacky musical pageant, the actor playing Jesus compares the Holy Trinity to the three states of water: liquid, ice and vapor.

When “Religulous” turns from evangelical Christianity to Judaism and Islam, its tone becomes uncertain and its rhythm choppy. An attitude of glib condescension is inadequate to address clashing religions that have turned the Middle East into an ideological cauldron. Jihadism and Orthodox Judaism are red-hot topics that Mr. Maher addresses too sketchily to convey the same authority he brings to Christianity.

Ah. Such glib condescension was adequate for Christianity, but not Islam. Which must be taken seriously and displayed reverently.

And have no doubt: the author is playing coy here, but it's only the impieties cast at Islam that bother him.

Posted by: Ace at 12:04 AM | Comments (156)
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