February 19, 2008
— DrewM. Following up on Gabe's early morning post, here's a longer article on what Castro's resignation means. Apparently the answer is somewhere between not much and no one really knows.
The resignation opens the path for Raul Castro's succession to the presidency, and the full autonomy he has lacked in leading a caretaker government. The younger Castro has raised expectations among Cubans for modest economic and other reforms, stating last year that the country requires unspecified "structural changes" and acknowledging that government wages that average about $19 a month do not satisfy basic needs.As first vice president of Cuba's Council of State, Raul Castro was his brother's constitutionally designated successor and appears to be a shoo-in for the presidential post when the council meets Sunday. More uncertain is who will be chosen as Raul's new successor, although 56-year-old council Vice President Carlos Lage, who is Cuba's de facto prime minister, is a strong possibility.
"Raul is also old," allowed Isabel, a 61-year-old Havana street sweeper, who listened to Castro's message being read on state radio with other fellow workers. "As a Cuban, I am thinking that Carlos Lage, or (Foreign Minister) Felipe Perez Roque, or another younger person with new eyes" could follow the younger Castro brother, she added.
In Florida, reaction among Cuban-Americans seems muted with a lot of people seeing this as inevitable given Castro's drawn out health problems.
The news that Castro would not seek a new term as president and military chief sparked no immediate celebrations in the streets of Little Havana, the community west of downtown Miami that is home to many of the city's 650,000-strong exile community."It's very good that Fidel resigns. But if Fidel dies, it's better," said Juan Acosta, a Cuban who left the Caribbean island in 1980, as he stopped for a newspaper on Calle Ocho, Little Havana's main street.
I am guessing there are a lot of people in several US government agencies dusting off plans on what the US will do when Castro dies or the regime in Cuba falls. It will be a very happy but challenging time.
UPDATE: It's a trap? That's what former Reagan era State Department official Otto Reich thinks Cubans may see this announcement as.
Update [Ace]: Cuban-American blogger Babulu is usually the best at blogging Cuban news.
More [Ace]: The NYT calls Castro "President" and gushes over his "great social achievements;" AP says that Castro's "detractors" considered him a dictator.
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06:35 AM
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— Gabriel Malor Not much news out about this yet, but about 30 minutes ago the wire feeds went crazy with this:
HAVANA (AP) — Ailing leader Fidel Castro resigned as Cuba's president early Tuesday, saying in a letter published in official online media that he would not accept a new term when the newly elected parliament meets on Sunday.THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
Thanks to Chief Clancy Wiggum who also noticed.
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12:18 AM
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— Gabriel Malor George Will wrote a column this weekend with five questions for John McCain that he intended would "reveal what constitutional limits -- if any -- [McCain] accepts on the powers of the presidency regarding foreign and military policies." These are unserious questions and with two exceptions they don't even touch on McCain's beliefs about constitutional limits on executive power. more...
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12:07 AM
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February 18, 2008
— Open Blog The NIU shooting was a tragedy that can not be diminished nor dismissed, and in writing this, I in no way want to imply any less of those involved.
But this article on ESPN by Adam Rittenberg really bothers me -- not the article itself, which, with the exception of one passage, is a gritty telling of what some experienced -- but the sub-heading to the article-link from the front page:
Call To Action Amidst the chaos of Thursday's shootings at Northern Illinois are stories of heroism. OG Tim Mayerbock was among those who rallied to his classmates' aid.
Of course, reading that, I am ready for a Flight 93 Beameresque "Let's Roll" moment, or perhaps something like the civilian pancaking of the shooter at the White House all those years ago.
Instead, what I find are simpler moments of more normal human reactions to extreme stress. more...
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11:40 PM
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— Gabriel Malor After Super Tuesday, the Clinton campaign got a shock when it started to dig into Texas' delegate rules. They'd planned to use Ohio and Texas to end Obama's winning streak and put Clinton comfortably ahead with wins in large-delegation states. Pundits all over are calling it the Giuliani strategy, and it's having about the same success for her as it did for him.
She would be in bad shape if Texas were merely a proportional allocation state. But it is much worse for her than that:
What Clinton aides discovered is that in certain targeted districts, such as Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa's heavily Hispanic Senate district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates. At the same time, a win in the more urban districts in Dallas and Houston -- where Sen. Barack Obama expects to receive significant support -- could yield three or four times as many delegates."What it means is, she could win the popular vote and still lose the race for delegates," Hinojosa said yesterday. "This system does not necessarily represent the opinions of the population, and that is a serious problem."
The disparity in delegate distribution is just one of the unusual aspects of Texas's complex system for apportioning delegates. The scheme has been in use for two decades but is coming under increased scrutiny because the March 4 presidential contest is the first in years that gives the state a potentially decisive voice in choosing the party's nominee.
[...]
Texas Democratic Party officials said there is a good reason that some senatorial districts yield two or three delegates while others yield seven or, in one Austin district, eight. The numbers are determined by a formula that is based on the number of voters in each district who cast ballots for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) in the 2004 presidential campaign and for Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006.
The higher the turnout in each district in those years, the more delegates the district will get to select this year, explained Boyd Richie, the state party chairman.
Someone at Clinton HQ wasn't paying attention. These were the rules for twenty years, and yet her staff "became alarmed" when they realized it just a few weeks ago? This is her post-halftime, do-or-die, make-or-break moment and they forgot to check the rules? I wonder if any of these staffers had the guts to turn to their neighbors and say, "We are so fucked."
Obama won the last eight contests, and his winning streak is likely to continue tomorrow in Wisconsin, where some recent polls show him with a double-digit lead. Clinton, like Giuliani, has underestimated the value of small victories. She didn't spend nearly as much as Obama in the last few states because she's been saving it up for "must-wins" Ohio and Texas. And all the time she's not making victories--all the time she's essentially standing still--she's falling behind in the polls.
Now, with two-and-a-half weeks to go before Texas' March 4th contest, she's in a statistical tie with Obama. Does anyone doubt that he's going to continue to cut into her once-formidable lead as her campaign manages only to make petty accusations of plagiarism?
I've heard the idea floated that given the proportional allocation of the last few primary states, Clinton cannot win unless she beats Obama by percentages of 25% or more unless she manages to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations as they are. Even then she still has to rely on the superdelegates not switching sides to avoid a Democratic Party crack-up.
Senator Clinton is in deep trouble.
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11:10 PM
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— Dave In Texas Of course they're HOARDING the film. We are left with an artist's rendition, below the fold.
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Scientists studying Antarctic waters have filmed and captured giant sea creatures, like sea spiders the size of dinner plates and jelly fish with six meter (18 feet) tentacles.
I know if I ever saw a spider the size of a dinner plate I'd be done with dinner.
Giant f'n squid, as observed by Capt. Nemo. more...
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07:48 PM
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— Ace Click the slideshow to see the boobies... again.
I guess it's okay.
Kind of creepy, given Lohan's strange dance with the Reaper.
Thanks to PetiteDov.
Mee-Ouch! Jen at Demure Thoughts says "she used to look remarkably like Ann Margaret at the same age. By thirty she should look like Ann Margaret at her current age."
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07:21 PM
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— Gabriel Malor Via Ed Morrissey, Al Qaeda in Iraq is executing allies for not being sufficiently committed to the cause. Sunni splinter groups have been deciding that civilian attacks aren't working. AQI apparently disagrees.
Video provided to CNN shows an al Qaeda in Iraq firing squad executing one-time allies -- fellow Sunni extremists -- who were not loyal enough to the terror organization, coalition military analysts said.In the video provided by coalition military officials, armed men wearing masks are shown standing behind nine kneeling men, all of whom are wearing blindfolds or hoods with their hands presumably tied behind their backs. The video shows the men being executed. [...]
A number of documents -- some found in the same raid -- bolster the coalition notion that al Qaeda in Iraq is waging a violent campaign against its former allies, intelligence analysts said. [...]
Coalition officials say the documents are indicative of a deep rift among the militant groups fighting coalition forces. Al Qaeda in Iraq "would like nothing more than to aggravate the situation," Smith said last week.
Al Qaeda in Iraq has a history of documenting its actions, the analysts said.
These jihadists are not nearly as PR-savvy as people say.
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06:51 PM
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— DrewM. I am not really sure that what the wife of a presidential candidate says is all that important but as The Obamassiah himself says, words matter.
Â…for the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country. And not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change.
Not once during her adult life has Michele Obama “really” been proud of America? Let’s see, she was born in 1964 so let’s say for the sake of argument she was an adult starting in 1984.
Picking a few events at random, that means she was not proud when millions were freed from the boot of Communism thanks to the decades long struggle of her country. She wasnÂ’t proud when America came together in the aftermath of September 11th. And she wasnÂ’t proud when the US led the relief response to 2004 tsunami.
The list could go on ad infinitum.
But she’s proud now because her empty suit of a husband may become the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party by saying 'hope' and ‘change’ more than anyone else?
The audacity of stupidity.
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04:26 PM
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— Open Blog Boston University professor Howard ZinnÂ’s book A PeopleÂ’s History of the United States, long a font of false knowledge to countless impressionable college freshmen, is coming to the small screen.
For those who may not be familiar with Professor Zinn’s book, it is a politically correct tour de farce through the evil, oppressive, and oh yes, racist history of the United States of America. Its pages contain the “true” history of America not the lies that the privileged power elite have forced upon the backs of the masses. Word is that Matt Damon has been slated to play the lead role (possibly a sadistic, white, racist, overlord or perhaps a murderous, lynch mob loving Republican).
more...
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04:03 PM
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