Um, it's elevating expectations, of course; the argument that Obama is similarly situated to Clinton and will get a 15 point Superbounce doesn't really persuade me, exactly. (But see below for the memo and draw your own conclusions.)

Here's the thing: the McCain argument is not bad, but it fails (deliberately) to take into account that Obama is constantly overhyped as the New Abraham Lincoln and New JFK by the Liberal Media Spirit Squad. This produces outsized expectations, of course, and when the public actually sees this buffoon in action, they wonder what the hell the hype is all about.

Obama has a long and growing history of "crucial, game-changing" speeches and debates in which he basically comes off as inspirational as the feces-tube in a shrimp's back.

So the McCain camp's spin isn't all spin. Certainly Obama has the potential to deliver a game-changing speech and reassure the American public he's, secondly, more qualified for the job than McCain and, firstly, qualified for the job at all.

If he does that, then yes, he "seals the deal" with the American people (as one ecstatic network announcer said after Clinton's 1992 speech), dispels most doubt, unifies the Democrats, persuades 60% of independents, and enjoys a huge 15 point surge -- not bounce -- which he basically holds until the November elections.

But that's a really big if. He's had any number of these "seal the deal/dispel the doubt" opportunities in the past and he's whiffed them, or at best caught the edge off the bat for a bloop single.

McCain's camp is talking about one side of that big If chasm. It's perfectly possible The Messiah will suddenly reveal his divine glow for all to see. (Honestly, it is -- hell, even JD Drew occasionally hits a home run.)

On the other side of that If chasm, though, is... well, anything from no bounce at all to a net loss as even more Americans are exposed to "Obama Magic" and, once again, make the racist determination that The One has no Halo.

As usual, I have no frickin' idea what will happen. One can't just split the difference and say "8 point bounce" -- because it seems to me the split-the-difference moderate outcome is the least likely of all. Much more likely are the "extreme" outcomes (extreme in quotes, because they're not really that extreme in terms of probability). Either Obama tanks it (again) or merely manages to read the teleprompter without drooling all over himself, or he finally becomes The Man Prophecied By the MSM Oracles and wows the country and walks to the Presidency without breaking a sweat.

Usually candidates like being heard by the public "unfiltered," without the spin and interference of the media. In Obama's case -- "unfiltered" is usually bad for him. The MSM doesn't interfere with his message; they run interference for him.

This will be the biggest stage Obama's ever stood upon, and almost every likely voter will be watching. This time, almost everyone will see precisely who this Lamb of Chicago really is, and whether or not he's Amazing Orator they've been told to death he is.

The MSM will of course try to rescue him with excuses and ridiculous proclamations of "thrills down the leg" after his speech. But that will be of little use -- everyone will have seen him in action, and can judge for themselves.

Dangerous for Obama.

But who knows.

I figure it:

20% tanks -- zero or negative bounce

40% very meh but not damaging -- modest 2-5 point bounce

30% hits a home run -- 10-12 point bounce

10% somewhere in the middle, 6-9 points

Anyway, here's the memo.
more...

Posted by: Ace at 01:23 PM | Comments (25)
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Oh, of course he does, but let's pretend.

Need for nomination are 2,118 delegates. Thus, at the moment, the projection is for Senator Obama, certainly, but only by 40 votes and the fact is that the Super-delegates can make up their minds, or change them, at any time, right up to the time to vote on nomination night. The big dance thus centers on the Super-delegates and what they decide may still be in question. Indeed, a change of thinking amongst 40 Super-delegates would be enough to throw ObamaÂ’s nomination in doubt and a wholesale defection of

298 of the Supers would change the dynamics to such an extent that Senator Clinton would receive the nomination.

Just a month or so ago, this kind of thinking would be totally off the wall, but a lot has changed in a month and a lot more could switch within another week. Ever since Barack returned from his mid-East “rock concert,” his image has been shrinking. Figure for a moment that Obama is now seen in the popular vote as in virtually a statistical dead heat with John McCain.

All indications and past indicators would favor the presumed Democratic nominee being well ahead in the popular polls right now. Figure that the Saddleback conversations were most unhelpful to Obama where John McCain is widely perceived to have clobbered him, and which were viewed by a large mass audience. Figure that the Clintons have been quietly working away to have major presence at the Convention and have insisted that HillaryÂ’s name be placed in nomination. Supposedly, she will then tell all her supporters to vote for ObamaÂ…maybe.

...

And in this case the campaign has not been so quiet. The seeds of distrust and disenchantment have been effectively thrown and not the least of which has been by the presumed candidate Barrack Obama himself. At the moment he is not playing very well on the American stage and a lot of the Democratic powers-that- be know it. While they are putting on a good face and spinning the inevitable spin, the facts are that there is a lot of worry amongst the Democrats as to whether Obama can win in November. Hillary is ambitious and seems to be gaining momentum as a possible alternative.

Special inducement for Hillary and PUMA: If Hillary attempts this and succeeds, I will endorse her and become her biggest supporter.

Because Hillary would in fact be the real Messiah.

Oh: And of course Hill's Angels are planning all sorts of shenanigans.

But we know for a fact Hillary is telling them in no uncertain terms to cool their jets and support Obama.

Posted by: Ace at 12:56 PM | Comments (30)
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As of 3 pm CST, Obama hasn't announced his VP selection yet. Some are still thinking that Joe Biden is the frontrunner. You Wish!

Joe Biden is a moron who's in love with the sound of his own voice. Yeah, he can bloviate with the best of 'em, but when you look at what he says and shine the cold, hard light of facts on his ideas, they fall apart.

We got to see quite a bit of "Clean, Articulate" Joe Biden here in Iowa last year. In case you missed it, he ran for President again this year. A local radio talkshow host I vaguely know kept having Biden on his program to pump his brain for information on foreign policy. I swear to God, his "Joe E. Biden, Sooooooper Genius" act is about five miles past the international limit of parody. My pal still gushes over Biden's intellect, but he's got a bit of the blusterer in him, so I guess he sees Biden as a brother-in-arms.

I'll spare you the breakdown of each and every one of Joe Biden's dumb ideas, but let's just say that, to paraphrase Will Rodgers' famous quote: "Joe Biden never met a man that he didn't think he was WAY smarter than." That condescending attitude got him a whole 0.5% of the Democratic vote here in Iowa last winter. That's about 0.5% more than Chris Dodd got, but I don't think anyone's gonna put THAT slogan on a bumper sticker any time soon.

I'd LOVE to see Obama pick Biden to be his VP. Not just because Biden's an intellectual lightweight who chooses to punch about six classes above his mental weight class, but because he's completely unable to be a wingman to ANYONE. Every time he steps onto a stage with Obama, the whole crowd will be wondering if and when he'll remind all of them that he's WAY smarter than anyone in the room...including his party's nominee for President. Joe can't help it. He's just being Joe. He's just gotta be acknowledged as the Smartest Man in The Room, and I don't see Captain Bullshit getting along well with Joe Biden. Of course, who would have thought that John "I served in Vietnam" Kerry would choose John "My Wife has terminal cancer" Edwards as his running mate? VP choices have little to do with how comfortable the two people are with each other, and they usually end up like arranged marriages from the Middle Ages. VP choice #1 has wide, child-bearing hips and a pleasant demeanor; but the family of VP choice #2 has Huge Tracts of Land, so #2 gets the nod every time.

I looked for that old Looney Tunes bit where Wile E. Coyote is sitting in a shack making TNT carrot bombs and repeating over & over to himself: "Wile E. Coyote - Super Genius. I LIKE the sound of that." However, while I was doing that, I realized that Wile E. Coyote isn't the best fit for Joe Biden. Here's the Looney Tunes character that Biden should have tattooed on his bicep, which SUCKS, since he's one of my favorites.

(BEFORE YOU START screeching about my Klan membership: Yes, I do realize that Br'er Rabbit is considered by some to be "slightly racist" at best. Don't blame me, I didn't write the damn stories. If there's another way to get the whole "please don't throw me in the briar patch" comparison to current events into the conversation, I'd love to hear it. You know what I think? When you're gonna be accused of racism by your opponents for even opposing their Annointed One, why not mix in a reference to a well-known story that perfectly illustrates how you feel about the process? It's not like they're gonna charge you with "Double-Secret Racism", right?)

Posted by: Russ from Winterset at 12:28 PM | Comments (25)
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"That fetus, or child — however you want to describe it" unfortunately sometimes was "not just coming out limp and dead.”

That's one quote from Obama, although the two parts occur at a couple dozen words from each other.

Andy ("Blaine" from Pretty in Pink) McCarthy continues:

So something had to be done with them. They couldn’t be left out in the open, struggling in the presence of fellow human beings. After all, those fellow human beings — health-care providers — would then be forced to confront the inconvenient question of why they were standing idly by. That would hold a mirror up to the whole grisly business.

Better the utility room. Alone, out of sight and out of mind. Next case.

StanekÂ’s account enraged the public and shamed into silence most of the countryÂ’s staunchest pro-abortion activists. Most, not all. Not Barack Obama.

My friend Hadley Arkes ingeniously argued that legislatures, including Congress, should take up “Born Alive” legislation: laws making explicit what decency already made undeniable: that from the moment of birth — from the moment one is expelled or extracted alive from the birth canal — a human being is entitled to all the protections the law accords to living persons.

Such laws were enacted by overwhelming margins. In the United States Congress, even such pro-abortion activists as Sen. Barbara Boxer went along.

But not Barack Obama. In the Illinois senate, he opposed Born-Alive tooth and nail.

Another must-read, even though by this point it's likely that everyone knows about this (except the MSM, of course -- shhh, don't wake them, it's "Nap Month").

What I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around most is Captain Bullshit's assertion that doctors would be "burdened" by the Born Alive Act, in the sense that being forced to provide care to a born-alive baby somehow complicates and burders their previous decision to induce labor and abort.

Apparently there's some sort of retroactive effect-preceding-cause time-paradox thing going on here, where having to handle a subsequent event unduly "burdens" an action taken ten minutes ago. (Cf. the medical testimony off the psychiatrist in The Terminator, noting that the machine's plan to kill John Connor's mother before he was born was a "kind of retroactive abortion.")

This -- in the estimation of the MSM -- is deep, nuanced, complex thinking of the sort America dearly needs. John McCain's "bullet-point" stupidity on this point -- that effect follows cause, that later-in-time actions cannot possibly affect prior-in-time actions (absent a Flux Capacitor and 1.21 Gigawatts of power, of course) that born-alive babies should be cared for as if they were, in legal jargon, "born-alive babies" -- is just pandering to stupid rubes who can't grasp the subtleties and complexities of warped 11-dimensional spacetime.

CORRECTION: 1.21 Gigawatts of power, not 1.4 as I wrote. I apologize for this factual error.

Posted by: Ace at 12:08 PM | Comments (49)
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The new Tinkers to Evers to Chance guaranteed triple play -- Blackwell donates to Obama, Obama snuggles up with Michelle, Michelle's hospital hires Blackwell to do hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of work.

And that's just the routine shenanigans. Blackwell hired Obama as a lawyer (or at least he funneled him $112,000) when Obama was in an admitted "dry period," but that had nothing at all to do with Obama's decision to fund Blackwell's pet project... a ping-pong tournament.

Yes, a ping-pong tournament.

When Blackwell sought backing for his table tennis tournament in 2002, other politicians, including U.S. Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) and Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley, offered support for the event. But Obama was the only one who provided a letter that became part of the initial application for state funds, state records show. In addition, he wrote a state Senate proclamation heralding the first tournament and an official letter that welcomed “table tennis friends” to the 2004 contest and thanked spectators for helping to “make Chicago the table tennis capital of this nation.”

Initially, the idea of table tennis receiving funds from a state tourism program — designed to encourage overnight visits to Illinois — was met with skepticism by one Republican state official. But the funding was granted at the $20,000 level that first year, grew to $200,000 in 2003 and totaled $100,000 in 2004.

Before I add the obligatory "and the media will not report on this," let it be known that the almost-kinda-attempting-to-be-a-real-news-organization WaPo is the paper reporting this.

That said, I expect the rest of the MSM to devote the same level of flood-the-zone resources to this and other True Tales of Corruption and Graft in the Windy City that they did regarding Andrew Young's Love Baby.

Excuse here? How can you trust a tabloid like the Washington Post.

Posted by: Ace at 10:52 AM | Comments (23)
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State of mind at work today:

[photo removed]

On Fuckitall Friday, we forgive ourselves for being worthless sacks.

So, whatchadooin this weekend?
Hear any good jokes lately?
Any interesting news stories or puddin' cups you'd be willing to share?

Posted by: LauraW at 10:43 AM | Comments (100)
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h/t to Instapundit

There's really nothing I can add to make this any funnier. So go. Read. Laugh.

Posted by: Russ from Winterset at 09:26 AM | Comments (24)
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PUMAs! Attack!

There’s one Democrat who would seem to have little or no chance of being picked by Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to be his running mate – his former opponent, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).

But itÂ’s not for the reason you think.

Obama has often said, most recently on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on July 27, that Clinton “would be on anybody’s short list.”

But apparently not his.

“She was never vetted,” a Democratic official reported. “She was not asked for a single piece of paper. She and Senator Obama have never had a single conversation about it. How would he know if she’d take it?”

Allah can't imagine it's true and thinks it's either part of the most elaborate head fake ever or a poison pill from a jilted Hillary.

Me? I think Obama is both dumb and arrogant enough to do just this. He hasn't exactly kept his promise about helping retire her debt, has he? And totally blowing Hillary off is one way to say, 'this is my party I'll do what I want, do what I want'.

Meanwhile a new name has popped up in the 'The Other One' sweepstakes...
Texas Congressman Chet Edwards.

Edwards, a nine-term congressman from Corpus Christi who serves on the House Appropriations and Budget committees, is a favorite of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who went on ABC’s “This Week” and said, “I hope he will be the nominee.”

What's their slogan going to be? Obama And The Edwards Without A Love Child!

More: In the comments Brad asks what PUMA means...People United Means Action. It's an actual PAC. Some hardcore Obama opponents also refer to it as Party Unity My Ass.

Needless to say, they are my favorite Democrats and I hope they show up loud and proud in Denver next week.

Posted by: DrewM at 09:18 AM | Comments (44)
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I think it's a work of art. It takes all those rumor emails about Obama and wraps them up into one neat little lawsuit. The point is to enjoin Obama and the DNC from going through with his nomination next week. Why now?

"I filed this action at this time," Berg stated, "to avoid the obvious problems that will occur when the Republican Party raises these issues after Obama is nominated."

That is getting so familiar.

The lawyer who sued is Philip J. Berg, certified nutcase. He's a Clinton supporter, former gubernatorial and senatorial candidate, former chair of the Democratic Party in Montgomery (PA) County, former member of the Democratic State Committee, and former Deputy Attorney General of Pennsylvania. He's also a Truther. Like all Truthers, he falls for the simplest of tricks. For example, he cites Wikipedia for some of his claims.

Added: In case I didn't make that clear above, I think the lawsuit should be laughed out of court. The rumormongering about whether Obama is really enough of an American to run for president is pretty silly. As are the whispers about whether McCain counts as a "natural born" citizen.

Later: Okay, the documents related to this case are here (thanks to Penfold). If this is the caliber and tone of his previous lawsuits, it's a miracle he hasn't been smacked with sanctions yet. Even if his allegations are true, this is not an example of good lawyering.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 09:14 AM | Comments (25)
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Immigration and Customs Enforcement is going to let the "Scheduled Departure" pilot program die today after it managed to remove only 8 out of the 457,000 illegal immigrants it was directed at.

"Quite frankly, I think this proves the only method that works is enforcement," Jim Hayes, acting director of ICE's detention and removal operations, told The Associated Press on Thursday.

ICE said it hatched the plan to give illegal immigrants under court order to leave more control over their departure and to calm criticism by immigrant advocates that its enforcement efforts were disruptive to families.

"They want amnesty, they want open borders, and they want a more vulnerable America," Hayes said.

While immigrant rights activists ridiculed the program, they're now worried its failure will embolden enforcement.

I wouldn't get too worried. 450,000+ illegals with outstanding removal orders? It sounds like some folks are slipping through the cracks.

Scheduled Departure is a nice idea. It gives an illegal who already has a removal order up to 90 days to put his or her life in order, say goodbye to the kids, and report to ICE for shipment. In other words, it is a post-removal version of Voluntary Departure. The alternatives are to be arrested and removed immediately after the last hearing or to wait for the sounds of ICE agents shuffling their feet on your front porch.

But it's not an idea that works because at this point in the process illegals have little to lose from making ICE drag them kicking and screaming out of the country. They already have removal orders and they're already barred from legal reentry (that is, with a proper visa). The "nice idea" of getting to chose which day you are pulled right out of your life doesn't stack up favorably with the fact that you are getting pulled right out of your life. I wouldn't take that deal either.

Still, the pilot program wasn't completely worthless. ICE got to pretend to care, the program flopped, and now it can move on to what it really wants to do: hard-line removal spree!

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 08:32 AM | Comments (31)
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