June 21, 2009

Iran, The Day After UPDATE: Large Street Protests Today?
— DrewM

Lots of arrests overnight in the wake of Saturday's protests, including the daughter of former Iranian President Rafsanjani.

Iran's government said Sunday it arrested the daughter and four other relatives of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the country's most powerful men, in a move that exposed a rift among the ruling Islamic clerics over the disputed presidential election.

...Rafsanjani, 75, heads two powerful institutions. One of them, the cleric-run Assembly of Experts, has the power to monitor and remove the supreme leader, the country's most powerful figure. The second is the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council, which can block legislation.

The assembly has never publicly reprimanded the unelected Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since he succeeded Islamic Revolution founder Aytollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. But the current crisis has rattled the once-untouchable stature of the supreme leader with protesters openly defying his orders to leave the streets.

Underscoring how the protesters have become emboldened despite the regime's repeated and ominous warnings, witnesses said some shouted "Death to Khamenei!" at Saturday's demonstrations — another sign of once unthinkable challenges to the virtually limitless authority of the supreme leader.

Rafsanjani was deeply critical of Ahmadinejad during the presidential campaign and has the potential to lead an internal challenge to Khamenei.

Over 20 reporters and bloggers have been reported arrested since the protests began and things are ominously quite on Twitter today.

There's a report that the transportation union is taking the side of the protesters. Expanding the protests beyond students will be important.

According to one source inside Iran, there were no planned protests today but that didn't stop people from gathering where they could (see the 9:56 update).

IÂ’m not doing this to prove IÂ’m brave, because IÂ’m not. The people that run towards the Basij with bare hands and the ones that have died are the brave ones. IÂ’m doing this because we deserve more.

There are no clear rallies for today but most of us are just going wherever there are crowdsÂ…DonÂ’t let people forget us so quickly.

I'm sure this brave Iranian will be happy to hear that Obama is still pretty excited about talking to his government, you know know the ones who unleashed the goons on him and his friends.

Maybe when all of this over, Obama will take him out for ice cream.

From TehranBureau on Facebook

The protests continued today. very scattered. our numbers have gone severely down. There are soldiers literally lined up on the streets. There is a very dark cloud over us. Please understand, we do not have any way of confirming how many people lost there lives in yesterdays massacre. They have cut all communications to a halt. Internet speeds are at 15kbps.

Below the fold, video via a retweet from an ABC reporter that is supposed to be of protests from today, Sunday, June 21. Unfortunately, there's just no way to tell for sure. more...

Posted by: DrewM at 07:42 AM | Comments (2)
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June 20, 2009

Pre-Overnight Open Thread (genghis)
— Open Blog

More update: COMMENTS ARE BACK!!! Come and get some!

Update and bumped: Events in Iran are obviously the biggest topic of the day. In fact, really the only topic. I'll leave this thread open though in case you want to talk about something else (assuming the comments come back online). I did promise Gator a photo if he behaved himself/herself/itself so that's all below the fold.

Original Post

Here's a sandbox for you to play in instead of defiling Drew's last post. I'll add some stuff and bump it later. Or just start a new one. The possibilities are endless (that is if you consider two to be endless). more...

Posted by: Open Blog at 09:30 PM | Add Comment
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Technical Difficulties... (tmi3rd)
— Open Blog

Hi, folks. Yeah, we noticed that comments are down as well. We're working on it, which is to say that we're currently beating Pixy with a bullwhip and cattle prod until it gets straightened out. Sorry about that, but we'll be back.

Update from Pixy: Sorry about that, folks. I was outside and away from my computer, and didn't spot the Pixy Signal for a couple of hours. All fixed now.

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Mousavi to Obama: You Insult Us
— Gabriel Malor

Via Michael Ledeen comes a letter from "The Office of Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi." Ledeen says that he's confident of the source, but that he's not sure it was actually approved by Mousavi:

From the Office of Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi

To the President of the USA, Mr. Barack Hussein Obama:

Dear Mr. President,

In the name of the Iranian people, we want you to know that when you recently made the statement "Achmadinejad or Mousavi? Two of a kind,” we consider this as a grave and deep insult, not just to Mr. Mousavi but especially against the judgment of the Iranian people, against our moral conviction and intelligence, especially those of the young generation that comprises a population of 31 million.

It is a specially grave insult for those who are now fighting for democracy and freedom, and an unwarranted gift and even praise for Mr. Khamenei, whose security forces are now killing peaceful Iranians in the streets of every major city in the country.

Your statement misled the people of the world. It was no doubt inspired by your hope for dialogue with this regime, but you cannot possibly believe in promises from a regime that lies to its own people and then kills them when they demand the promises be kept.

By such statements, your administration and you discourage the Iranian people, who believe and trust in the values of democracy and freedom. We are pleased to see that you have condemned the regimeÂ’s murderous violence, and we look forward to stronger support for the rightful struggle of the Iranian people against the actions of a regime that is your enemy as well as ours.

It's a little too perfect for me to trust, but if it is genuine then Obama has damaged US-Iran relations for another generation.

Maybe someone can put me some knowledge, but the reason I find it hard to believe is the second paragraph, which rather bluntly calls out Ayatollah Khamenei. Mousavi has harshly condemned Ahmadinejad and he campaigned on a platform of transferring power from Khamenei to the presidency. But I'm surprised at such a direct challenge.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 08:33 PM | Comments (1)
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President Coward Comes Out From Under His Desk
— Gabriel Malor

Earlier this week I had a disagreement with some coworkers about the President's so-called "strategy" on the Iranian protests. Some very overeducated people assured me that it was a "smart play" to sit on the sidelines, neither provoking nor encouraging either side. Of course, inaction is easily understood as a supporting the status quo. In Iran's case the status quo is tyranny and oppression.

I explained to my coworkers that even if Mousavi is only fractionally better than Ahmadinejad, it is right for the U.S. to demonstrate support for free and fair elections. And, in an appeal to their constant blather about losing the "moral high ground", I encouraged them to consider the U.S. taking a moral stance against brutality. Suddenly, every last one of them was a pragmatist.

They told me that Obama should not do anything that would sour relations between the current and likely continuing government (they say) of Iran. That he clearly "has a plan" and is "demonstrating courage" by sticking to it in the face of criticism.

On Monday, I'm going to have to work very hard not to say HA HA YOU STUPID, STUPID BASTARDS. The President has reversed course on Iran. He's decided to caution the Iranian government about its thuggery. He threw whatever "smart play" he had out the window and I suspect it's because the heat was getting to him.

Click through. Read that statement and try and explain why it could not have been issued Monday. The only difference between now and then is that more people are dead and the protests are looking more and more like a revolution. Obama was banking on the whole thing dying off. Now he's left scrambling to not be the last head of state in the West to condemn the Iranian government.

Will it be a revolution? I'm not that optimistic, but it is the seed of something. Americans tended to think of Iran as an oppressive state even prior to last week. The lack of freedoms always loomed large in our eyes. But the Iranians didn't think that way. It was their country, good or bad, and everyone has problems, right?. Now, however, do you think any of the ordinary citizens who have been abused by the police are going to forget that this isn't mere police brutality, but violence actually ordered by their own government?

There is no way to pretend anymore that incidents of oppression are isolated, rare events--the exception, not the rule. Now they know how very less than free they are and the seed of something new is planted. What remains to be seen is whether they will be satisfied if the mullahs sack Ahmadinejad. Maybe they just might recognize that the root of the problem is the Guardian Council. I suspect the mullahs are aware of this possibility, which is why a few of them are now promising limited recounts.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 05:29 PM | Add Comment
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Compare and Contrast: Obama vs. Iran
— Ace

Drew mentioned this as a compare-and-contrast thing. I don't know if Patterico channeled him or what, but he's got a brilliant/awful series of dueling Twitter posts.

Worth a read for a dark chuckle.

UPDATE [DinT]: Obama is deeply concerned.

emperorobama.jpg

photoship courtesy the only important man up on that stage, Slublog.

DrewM asks: "Remember when the left cared about governments mowing down people?"

Dave replies: "No".

Posted by: Ace at 04:06 PM | Add Comment
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Obama To Iran: Hey Guys, Can't I Just Finish My Ice Cream?
— DrewM

Being President is hard, but not so hard that you can't pop out with the kids for some ice cream! (scroll around)

Obama and the girls are back at the WH after their quick outing for frozen custard.

...The Obama outing last 54 minutes. The Secret Service used the SUV instead of the limo for the pres and daughters.

...You're gonna laff: Obama & the girls actually bought Frozen Puppy pops for Bo: flavors: pumpkin, peanut butter and yogurtÂ…

Yeah, I'm LOLing my ass off.

Mark Knoller, the CBS reporter who broke this story is shocked people are expressing outrage over this.

As someone once said, words matter. Well so do images. The image of the President of the United State heading out for a fun afternoon with the kids while people are still dying in the streets and being rounded up the security services is simply too much.

I get Presidents have to have lives. I didn't expect Bush to maintain a 24/7 vigil in the White House for 7 years after 9/11 but I wouldn't have expected him to head out for a "Puppy Pops" while there was a major offensive under way either.

There's precious little Obama can do, I don't think it's too much ask he not do crap to make it look like he's even less interested than he already seems. Whether he knows it or not, the world isn't only watching Tehran. more...

Posted by: DrewM at 12:43 PM | Comments (11)
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Abu mucks the waters
— Uncle Jimbo

Andrew Exum has gotten a lot of coverage for his writings as Abu Muqawama now hosted at CNAS, the Obama administration's home think tank. This characterization has become more apt recently with the release of their piece Triage on Afghanistan and Pakistan. I'm not accusing them of changing their views to support softer power, but they certainly fit that mold. Exum takes some shots at Paul Wolfowitz and even Charles Krauthammer about their calls for a little spine from the White House.

Krauthammer just opened his cakehole and started giving his opinions.

No offense there Andrew, but I think Krauthammer has shown quite a bit more intellectual heft than you have managed yet, and your shots at him seem kinda lame. Plus your attempted ass-covering of the administration is pretty weak.

I do have faith that the Obama Administration has held its tongue not because it supports the regime in Tehran but because it doesn't want to undermine the position of the protesters.

I don't think the Obama team supports the regime, but I think they have made the determination that they want to negotiate with them and so have cold-bloodely decided that they gain nothing from angering them. They expect the Mullahs will crush the rebellion and so making a stand for those seeking freedom and liberty would gain them only a few days of moral clarity. Supreme Leader Khameini already has blamed the US and the West so it's not really a case where we would have undermined the protesters. Their leaders own mouthpiece essentially asked for a little support.

I think that President Obama has decided there is nothing to be done about Iranian nukes and so is positioning to have better relations with the regime and hopefully contain them. These protests offer the possibility of derailing those efforts if he is seen as backing the protesters. I don't know if the protests have a chance of success, it seems unlikely, but it sure does point out where the administration is on the cause of freedom around the world. America has long stood as the loudest voice for freedom and liberty, but now we sit on the sidelines as President Sarkozy of France raises his voice against tyranny. Smart power that ignores those willing to die for their freedom doesn't seem so smart to me.

Exum ends with this smack talk

I suspect that one of the reasons Krauthammer, Kagan & Co. are criticizing Obama's tactics
vis a vis Iran is because the majority of Americans would find their
strategic goals they hint at but never reveal to be bat-guano crazy.
Prove me wrong.

Perhaps you should begin by proving yourself right Andrew, you have said so little. And if the belief that negotiating with the Mullahs will fail is wrong, then 30+ years of track record is bat shit crazy.

Posted by: Uncle Jimbo at 11:59 AM | Add Comment
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Nightfall In Iran UPDATE: White House Statement UPDATE x2: Obama Takes Daughters On Ice Cream Run UPDATE x3: A Tank In Azadi Square?
— DrewM

It's been a bloody day there.

Videos Posted by Hamed Rad
Basij shots to death a young woman in Tehran's Saturday June 20th protests

At 19:05 June 20th
Place: Karekar Ave., at the corner crossing Khosravi St. and Salehi st.

A young woman who was standing aside with her father watching the protests was shot by a basij member hiding on the rooftop of a civilian house. He had clear shot at the girl and could not miss her. However, he aimed straight her heart. I am a doctor, so I rushed to try to save her. But the impact of the gunshot was so fierce that the bullet had blasted inside the victim's chest, and she died in less than 2 minutes.

The protests were going on about 1 kilometers away in the main street and some of the protesting crowd were running from tear gass used among them, towards Salehi St

The film is shot by my friend who was standing beside me.

Please let the world know.

That's from a Facebook account. The video there is EXTREMELY graphic, a young girl dies in front of your eyes.

Reports are now coming in about the chanting that has become a nightly ritual.

TehranBureau:

WHOLE city is shaking with very loud screams from rooftops. Their loud voices calling only for God is filled with fear, hatred, and hope.

An ABC news producer reports:

e-source on rooftops: "People are very angryÂ…they are screaming like a bansheeÂ…this ain't aloha akbar anymore" #iranelection

There are also reports of protests and nightly chanting in cities other than Tehran.

Mousavi tells supporters to strike if he is arrested.

Meanwhile Obama's vaunted cool approach that would prevent the Mullahs from dragging the US into this hasn't worked so well. Iran state media is mistranslating his words (scroll down).

Mr. President, you personally and we as a country are being dragged in anyway, why not do the right thing? Say something. Give up the fantasy of negotiating with this regime.

The protesters know the truth. The rest of the country know the truth, those on the streets are their bothers, sisters, sons and daughters. This pose serves no one.

Finally [Slublog] - Obama issues statement.

Obama's statement

The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion.

Martin Luther King once said - "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." I believe that. The international community believes that. And right now, we are bearing witness to the Iranian peoplesÂ’ belief in that truth, and we will continue to bear witness.

[DrewM.] Hey dipshit...The Iranian people are in the process of passing judgment on their government. The only question is can they make it stick.

BTW-What justice does he think the universe is bending towards here? If this is crypto speak for 'string the mullahs up', I'm in. I'd be shocked if this is what he's thinking but I'd love to know what he means by this.

Update 2: Yeah. Words fail.

Update 3: TehranBureau FB friend says: Iran source: there is a military tank in Azadi Square.

No word yet on what flavor ice cream the crew would like.

Also this...

it was a nightmare, I can barely breath & my face is burning, Masood got shot in the arm & Shayan's brother is missing

Below the fold, police attack unarmed civilians, including women in the southern city of Shiraz. more...

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Mousavi Appears Says "I Am Prepared For Martyrdom" UPDATE: Western Governments Meddling? Embassies Taking In Wounded ?
— DrewM

Above the post update:

A change in tone?

According to niac crowds are chanting

“I welcome death
I welcome death
But not subjugation
But Not subjugation”

Kind of like a Persian version of "Give me liberty or give me death" isn't it?

No, I'm not saying they want a US kind of government. I have no idea what they want, neither do 'they'. Revolutions generally aren't about creating a specific type of governing system, it develops later (see the American Revolution and the government that finally emerged, it took awhile to get there). On a human level, I'm saying this is a good start and they deserve a chance to work it out. On a policy level, this is our best chance to see a change that could really reshuffle the deck in the middle east for the better.

Original post:
The last post was getting a little unruly so I'm setting up a new one.

There are numerous Twitter reports (so grain of salt alert) that Mousavi is on the streets and telling protesters he is ready for "martyrdom". Nico Pitney at Huffington Post (I know) has a good round up.

CNN now has a report saying that Mousavi is saying the election was rigged in advance and wants a revote.

There's no doubt the regime is cracking down violently on the protesters. Anyone heard from the President of the United States lately?

There were reports that helicopters were dropping boiling water on protesters. Now it seems that it's a chemical agent that makes it feel like the skin is burning. Lovely.

I've changed the headline because it seems Mousavi's appearance and statement have been confirmed. It could be circular reporting of a rumor but it seems to be the case. The statements have appeared on Mousavi's website, so that's his official position.

BBC video of street fighting (The embeding function is disabled) as pointed out by Anti-Harkonnen Freedom Fighter.

UPDATE: Numerous reports that western embassies are taking in wounded protesters and they are even posting addresses so people know where to take injured.

If this is true and again, sorry to be a broken record but it's a huge if, then Obama's silence is even more damning. Of course we don't have a diplomatic presence in Iran but the least we can do is say something positive and we aren't.

Below, video said to be from today's protests. There's no way to confirm the date but if it is today, it's clear a lot of people showed up and that the police weren't able to prevent them from at least starting. Again though, no way to know for sure the date of the video. more...

Posted by: DrewM at 06:55 AM | Comments (15)
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