March 03, 2014

Thoughts On Ukraine
— DrewM

ItÂ’s hard to keep up with fast moving events (like this) so I thought IÂ’d run through some of the bigger picture items.

I know itÂ’s popular on the right (and even among some liberals) to say that ObamaÂ’s weakness, as evidenced by his failure to follow through on Syria, emboldened Putin but I donÂ’t buy it.

Recall that in 2008 Vladimir Putin undertook a similar operation in the South Ossetia region of Georgia. Was George W. Bush viewed as weak and vacillating by Putin? Had Bush appeared to the world as week and unwilling to use military force in a crisis?

If BushÂ’s decisive, unilateral, cowboy persona didn't lead Putin to lay low, why should we assume that launching a few cruise missiles (remember "just muscular enough not to get mocked"?), would have been a decisive factor in PutinÂ’s Ukraine calculations?

Would a President Romney have made a difference? Again, I doubt it. While Romney has been vindicated for his view of Russia (and Obama again to be shown to be naïve) it’s hard to believe Romney’s presence in the White House would have altered Russia’s view of its interests in Ukraine. These interest are what ultimately drive Russia’s actions.

A few things to consider:

Ukraine is a major trading partner of Russia.

It was to be a cornerstone in PutinÂ’s customs union which was/is to be an alternative trading bloc to the EU. When Ukraine flirted with joining the EU and wrecking the Russian plan things began to escalate.

Many of RussiaÂ’s gas pipelines, carrying the source of RussiaÂ’s wealth, run through Ukraine.

Russia has been fanatical about access to a warm water port since Peter the Great. Do you really think they were going to risk losing access to their outlet to the Black Sea and from there the Mediterranean?

In general, the Russians have spent the last 20 or so years watching areas that they think are rightly part of their sphere of influence aligning more and more with the west. Now the largest, most important, and historically closest part of the former empire is wrecking your economic dreams and throwing in with their opponents, the Russians were going to simply shrug because Obama threw some missiles at Syria or Mitt Romney was in the White House? ThatÂ’s fanciful at best.

Putin made a very simple and accurate calculationÂ…no US President or European leader was going to go to war over Ukraine.

International relations are much simpler than people want to make them out to be. Countries have interests and goals. If you want to oppose them and stop them from perusing a particular goal, you either have to offer them something of greater value or make the cost of doing it prohibitive.

When you look at the Russian interests in Ukraine (and PutinÂ’s domestic standing), thereÂ’s almost nothing the west has to offer thatÂ’s more valuable than a friendly and pliant Ukraine. That leaves making the cost too high.

Sure you could exact some toll on Russian oligarchs by going after their money in Europe but it seems likely Putin has a better handle on what that would mean to them and their support for him than most people in Europe or the US.

Aside from the financial penalties and possible sanctions, you are left with using military force to stop PutinÂ’s military moves. Again, no American President, past, present or future is going to go to war with Russia over a non-aligned, non-treaty obligation nation right next to Russia.

Too many administration officials steeped in the ways of forging policy conferences, college coffeehouses and faculty lounges. They may think that military action is anachronistic in the 21st century and that because “spheres of interests” are frowned upon in 600 level IR classes at Harvard real policy makers agree. As we see from Iran, China and Russia both of those concepts are alive and well. We cannot wish them away or think what motivates us is shared universally.

Whether we like it or not, Russia sees itself as having real and important interests in Ukraine. That they protect them in ways that we donÂ’t like doesnÂ’t factor into the conversation.

So assuming that Putin succeeds in Crimea and in either taking over the rest of Ukraine or installing leadership friendlier to his vision (and he will because he has real interests at stake, while while we have nebulous concepts to defend), whatÂ’s next? LetÂ’s not kid ourselves about Putin and his project. He wants to pull back as much of the non-NATO aligned old Soviet Empire as possible. And heÂ’s going to be successful for the most part because we in the west donÂ’t really care.

But there are limits to how far he can push us and we need to make it clear to him what they areÂ…NATO aligned countries like the Baltic nations, Poland and The Czech Republic.

I donÂ’t think Putin is crazy enough to try and pull the Baltics back inside a reconstituted Russian empire or have enough to offer to lure former Warsaw Pact nations into his customs union. We need to make it clear to him treaty obligation nations are a wholly different matter. This is a lesson that we need to make sure China observes and understands regarding Japan.

Unlike the immediate post-World War II era, this “redline” can’t come just from Obama or any American President. European nations have to end their long decline in military spending. The Europeans got a discounted ride after WWII because they needed to rebuild and we wanted to make sure to check the Soviets (we also didn't mind paying an out-sized share because it initially gave us out-sized influence).

That arrangement canÂ’t be the same going forward. Our European friends canÂ’t continue to do lucrative business with the Russians while looking to us to foot the bill and play the bad guy. They have the most to lose and need to act accordingly.

Maintaining a credible deterrent to an expansionist regime like Putin's doesn't mean we have to answer the bell in every conflict from Syria to Ukraine. We do need to credibly identify our core interests and make it clear that we will defend them.

To borrow a phrase, if everything is defined as a national security interest, then nothing is. What makes us look like paper tigers is talking big about everything, even in areas we know we won't do anything if push comes to shove. We will be far better served being honest about what we will fight to defend and following through in those cases. That may leave a lot of people out in the cold and at the mercy of some nasty actors but that's the story of humanity.

Posted by: DrewM at 05:56 AM | Comments (426)
Post contains 1129 words, total size 8 kb.

1 First?

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 05:57 AM (bitz6)

2 &&&&&&&&&&

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 05:57 AM (bitz6)

3 Kinda lonely in here.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 05:58 AM (bitz6)

4 The Love Boat soon will be making another run......

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 05:59 AM (bitz6)

5 I guess it was the implied message that Ukraine could rely on us for protection.
Little did Ukraine know that we had our fingers crossed behind our backs when we implied that.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at March 03, 2014 05:59 AM (DPkKe)

6 Aww, MSM press, your boyfriend lets you down again? In the immortal, musical words of Miss Julie London, Crimea river.

Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at March 03, 2014 05:59 AM (a5ljo)

7 Putin made a very simple and accurate calculationÂ…no US President or European leader was going to go to war over Ukraine. McCain would have. We'd be at war with Iran, Syria, Libya...

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at March 03, 2014 05:59 AM (BNuW6)

8 Very nice summary. 

It doesn't help that Obama is Putin's bitch.

Posted by: John W. at March 03, 2014 06:00 AM (PVBzL)

9 Crimea is strategic and historic to the Russians, no?  The real failure was our intelligence community saying that Putin wouldn't act right up until he did act.  You could even have predicted that Putin would act as soon as Sochi was over.  This was Group Think blindness.   The key player in response to this is Germany, who can really hit Putin where it'd hurt -- his pocketbook.  Germany has been waking up that its energy policy is economically ruinous and has left Germany overly dependent on imports from Russia.  There's a reason that the Enviro-Crazies in Germany are called watermelons -- green on the outside, red on the inside.  Were Germany to go "all of the above" on Energy it'd be a game changer.  Anything else is just posturing and rhetoric.   Meanwhile, just before the crisis in Crimea, John Kerry flew all the way to Indonesia to give a speech that Man-made Global Climate Change was the biggest threat to the future of humanity.   p.s. I'm more worried about what China might be up to than I am about what Putin is up to.

Posted by: Ignoramus at March 03, 2014 06:00 AM (EPEqj)

10 Is this near old Dagestan?

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:00 AM (bitz6)

11 Apparently our leaders never played Risk. You have to have Ukraine.

Posted by: blaster at March 03, 2014 06:00 AM (4+AaH)

12 Village Idiot Are you sure you are not my spouse in disguise? He said the exact same thing.

Posted by: DefendUSA at March 03, 2014 06:00 AM (mtuMz)

13 Was George W. Bush viewed as weak and vacillating by Putin?
--------

Yes. After seven years of war, the last four of which had been extremely unpopular, to the point that the GOP got routed in the 2006 midterms, Bush had no political capital to flex military muscle. Public support for more war was just not there. The Democrats had just nominated a guy who won the nomination by being more anti-war than the preordained frontrunner, and he was on track to winning the election. No friggin' way would Congress support anything that could look like military action over Georgia.

Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at March 03, 2014 06:01 AM (xN1DB)

14 &&&&&

Posted by: Brother Cavil, future overlord of the winter wastes at March 03, 2014 06:01 AM (naUcP)

15 I want a Black Sea port.


I'll take Crimea.


I'll get "The" Ukraine!

Posted by: Vlad Putin at March 03, 2014 06:01 AM (o3MSL)

16 Bush was on the way out in the fall of 2008 so your point there is weak.  Would Putin have tried this in 2003 or 2005?  I don't think so. Also, you throw in the straw man of going to war over this.  No one considers that an option.  It's Obama's naivety that us conservatives find disgusting.

Posted by: ilrndude at March 03, 2014 06:01 AM (WPMXB)

17 The bad part of this was that immoral fuckhead Clinton snookering the Ukrainians into giving up their own true guarantee of sovereignty. As far as I'm concerned, any bloodshed from this is on him. Not even Putin would attack somebody who could nuke the Kremlin.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at March 03, 2014 06:02 AM (BNuW6)

18 I don't think Obama cares. At another blog (link in nic) there was a picture put out by the WH showing Obama on his 90 minute phone call with Put in. The WH put the picture out and said it was taken during that phone call. A few commenters, however, noticed the leaves, grass and flowers out the window behind Obama which makes it hard to believe it was taken recently. Weird. I think the whole Ukraine thing is to keep people from noticing Venezuela.

Posted by: Chilling the most at March 03, 2014 06:02 AM (gxtMZ)

19 I think the difference is that Romney would have been     working on this since January 2013, not waking up    to     it    in February of 2014

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at March 03, 2014 06:02 AM (sBUAE)

20 Don't mock my muscle.

Posted by: King Barack at March 03, 2014 06:02 AM (YgTB4)

21
"the Russians have spent the last 20 or so years watching areas that they think are rightly part of their sphere of influence aligning more and more with the west."




"Rightly part of their sphere of influence"?

"Mr. Gorbachev tear down this wall." apparently no longer "cool".

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at March 03, 2014 06:03 AM (kdS6q)

22 The real failure was our intelligence community saying that Putin wouldn't act right up until he did act. Like they missed the collapse of the USSR, Iraq invading Kuwait, 9/11, etc. etc. It's about to the point you assume the opposite of their conclusions is true.

Posted by: Brother Cavil, future overlord of the winter wastes at March 03, 2014 06:03 AM (naUcP)

23 The US intelligence community did not see this coming.
Perhaps those fuckers should hang around here some more.

This group of mouthbreathing Morons collectively were predicting this for weeks.
Including specifically that the end of the Olympics would start the clock ticking.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at March 03, 2014 06:03 AM (DPkKe)

24 The warm water port business is overstated. Sure, the Black Sea fleet has a base in Crimea, but Russia has other port access to the Black Sea, towit: Sochi. Other concerns are more paramount to the Russians; the port stuff is down on the list.

Posted by: RS at March 03, 2014 06:03 AM (YAGV/)

25 Honesty? With this clown-car of an administration? I just don't see it happening.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit[/i][/u][/b][/s] at March 03, 2014 06:03 AM (0HooB)

26 I think the difference is that Romney would have been working on this since January 2013, not waking up to it in February of 2014

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at March 03, 2014 10:02 AM (sBUAE)


And SoS John Bolton would have been right there with actual cogent advice that protected US interests.

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:04 AM (o3MSL)

27 Putin made a very simple and accurate calculation -------- That's not true! Putin is unpredictable and unstable! Regan never had to deal with someone this crazy!!!

Posted by: Mark Halperin at March 03, 2014 06:04 AM (Aif/5)

28 Alternate post subtitle: In Which We Perform Mental Masturbation.

Posted by: soothsayer at March 03, 2014 06:04 AM (MLwNA)

29 Obama and his team should have been involved with the Ukranian protestors and Putin before we ever got to this point. He should have laid out a plan to ensure early and fair elections and assured Putin that we would support their treaty rights to Crimea and ports whatever might happen so they did not feel they needed to secure them by military force. The errors are not what Obama has done after the overthrow but what he didn't do before. They are a lazy, lazy crew.

Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 06:05 AM (Z4z/q)

30 Anyone else get the feeling that Drew Didn't read the 1980s foreign policy article in the dump? There are degrees of action here. And I'm with ilrndude on this. Putin probably saw the tide of change in 2008, Bush is hamstrung by the economic issues and Obama is polling for a victory. Plus the war weary US populace is distracted by the Olympics. All of this makes for Putin to make a run at Georgia. I'm not sure Putin isn't crazy enough to make a run at the Baltics. Poland, no, Baltics, maybe. And then what? And what of China? You say we have to make a stand there, but the Chinese and the Japanese seem to want to go to war with each other. So does that make for a better show of force than Ukraine? I'd say no.

Posted by: tsrblke, PhD(c) (No Really!) at March 03, 2014 06:05 AM (hq5sb)

31 Well, do the Ukrainian people, in and outside Crimea, have the will and stamina to start and maintain a bloody and protracted insurgency? If this becomes Afghanistan redux for the Red Army, Putin's a goner.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at March 03, 2014 06:06 AM (olDqf)

32 I just want to see Bibi gut punch Barry.

Posted by: Judge Pug at March 03, 2014 06:08 AM (6Nj7A)

33 China, minimally, is going to grab the Spratley Islands off the coast of Philippines. To try for the Senkakus would almost force the Japs to react with force.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at March 03, 2014 06:08 AM (olDqf)

34 OK, diplomats, I gotta go do stuff. Y'all have fun and try not to trash the place, 'k?

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit[/i][/u][/b][/s] at March 03, 2014 06:08 AM (0HooB)

35 Ukraine is a major trading partner of Russia.

Pay close attention to this.  Take a look at commodity prices.  I was talking to my best friend (a very successful farmer...who also has a master's in History) last night about this.  He described Ukraine as "a giant Iowa."  In addition to wheat, it's also a major corn exporter.  Taking Ukraine is vital to Putin and any other expansionist ideas that he has.  First, it drives up grain prices elsewhere in the world, applying economic pressure; second, it makes it easier for him to feed the Russian army.

Posted by: Country Singer at March 03, 2014 06:09 AM (L8r/r)

36 Forcing the Japanese to unleash Godzilla.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:09 AM (bitz6)

37 Putin recognized that by the summer of 2008, George Bush was a lame duck President, severely wounded by the pro-Democrat media machine. He knew there was no way Bush could get support for any military action in Georgia. In 2014, Putin has already calculated that Obama is a lame duck president, and that he never had any inclination to stand up to Russian resurgence. Would a President Romney go to war with Russia over the Crimea? No. But a President Romney would have been more more supportive of Ukrainian independence over the past 18 months and we would not have to come to this point today.

Posted by: Kenneth at March 03, 2014 06:09 AM (jn8qD)

38 32 I just want to see Bibi gut punch Barry. Posted by: Judge Pug at March 03, 2014 10:08 AM (6Nj7A) Sadly, the Israeli left is almost as nutty as the leftists here. Stockholm Syndrome meets Jewish Guilt. I hope Bibi gives SCOAMF a C*nt punch.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at March 03, 2014 06:09 AM (olDqf)

39 In Bush's defense He had been pilloried for Iraq for 5 years and the Dems had made Bush's war such an evil and War in general for Oil! and Profit! No Bush couldn't have stopped Putin in Georgia. Not with a Dem all powerful majority Also note that was in August where elections/primaries meant everything , What was He to do go into Georgia hand the New President a War with Russia? 3 mths later Horribly bad timing for US, great timing for Putin. He knew the game Here.

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:11 AM (nqBYe)

40 We shouldn't even be talking about this.

Posted by: Luap Nor at March 03, 2014 06:12 AM (Aif/5)

41 To borrow a phrase, if everything is defined as a national security interest, then nothing is. What makes us look like paper tigers is talking big about everything, even in areas we know we won't do anything if push comes to shove.




Also known as the entirety of the Obammy "administration's"   foreign policy.    Remember, to Obammy   and Co.,   everything from      military   build-up in the Pacific to   childhood obesity counts as a fucking   "national security    threat."    



The Jug Eared Fuck   can't find his ass with both hands, a map, a flashlight, and the assistance of six Cabinet secretaries, but that's okay because he's got AWESOME    creases in his pants.    Having him in   the Oval Office didn't prompt Putin to go marching into Ukraine, but it sure as hell didn't stop him either.   Putin knows we're sick and tired of war here in the US, and the fact taht we've got a limp-wristed pencil dick behind the Resolute desk      just makes    any kind of    forceful response that much less likely.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 06:12 AM (4df7R)

42 Also Drew, I wouldn't argue that the Ukraine is a national security interest anyway. There's a difference between a national security interest and a geopolitical one. I'm not sure that makes the situation meaningless. But hey, whatever man.

Posted by: tsrblke, PhD(c) (No Really!) at March 03, 2014 06:12 AM (hq5sb)

43 * or The Dems would have allowed Bush to take on Putin right before They won the Presidency after a Hard push and tactic of War is strafing villages of innocent people for oil?

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:14 AM (nqBYe)

44 Posted by: Country Singer at March 03, 2014 10:09 AM (L8r/r) ------- Your friend is right. It is why Poland is always conquered. Both Poland and Ukraine are the bread baskets. O/T, Weasel Zipper blog has a tweet from Howard Fineman comparing the Oscars and Ukraine, and giving Obama credit for both!

Posted by: Chilling the most at March 03, 2014 06:14 AM (gxtMZ)

45 Bush was on the way out in the fall of 2008 so your point there is weak. Would Putin have tried this in 2003 or 2005? I don't think so. Also, you throw in the straw man of going to war over this. No one considers that an option. It's Obama's naivety that us conservatives find disgusting. Posted by: ilrndude at March 03, 2014 10:01 AM (WPMXB) Also, Georgia is way different than Ukraine strategically.

Posted by: Zombie John Gotti at March 03, 2014 06:14 AM (zT0DN)

46 Obama is entirely consistent. He has brought gangster rule to America and is encouraging Putin to expand gangster rule in eastern Europe. I'm buying a fucking gun.

Posted by: Trimegistus at March 03, 2014 06:14 AM (Zp8Kp)

47 "Well, do the Ukrainian people, in and outside Crimea, have the will and stamina to start and maintain a bloody and protracted insurgency?" Crimea and all of western Ukraine (where all the manufacturing and commerce is) is pro-Russia. The bulk of the military comes from western (pro-Russia) Ukraine and speaks Russian. The officer corps are all Russian trained. On the other side, the poets, mimes and street actors are all solidly in the Ukrainian speaking opposition.

Posted by: jwest at March 03, 2014 06:15 AM (u2a4R)

48 Ukraine, my kraine... what does it matter.  Get a wrecking ball. 

Posted by: BurtTC at March 03, 2014 06:15 AM (TOk1P)

49 and lol, especially after Georgia the intelligence community could not seem to 'understand' Putin. (might still have more spilling out in a moment,lol)

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:15 AM (nqBYe)

50 If Obama had never been President, there would never have been the Czech/Polish betrayal that I believe opened the door. The subsequent 5 years of petty humiliations and encroachments were even more preparation, whether by design or not. It would've been President McCain, so who knows what he would've done, but he wouldn't have started off by retroactively surrendering in the Cold War. If Romney won in 2012, most of the parts were already moving, but it's clear he viewed it as a priority. He would probably be doing now some of the things outlined in Barone's piece from the Dump.

Posted by: Lincolntf at March 03, 2014 06:15 AM (ZshNr)

51 Did the intelligence community really miss this? Or did the administration disregard the information, completely get it wrong, then deflect blame.

Posted by: Pantera Rosa at March 03, 2014 06:15 AM (6gwQA)

52

http://is.gd/mitQzR

 

is also highly relevant, for many reasons. Not the least of which is Russia was responsible for the leak.

 

"The US says that it is working with all sides in the crisis to reach a peaceful solution, noting that "ultimately it is up to the Ukrainian people to decide their future". However this transcript suggests that the US has very clear ideas about what the outcome should be and is striving to achieve these goals. Russian spokesmen have insisted that the US is meddling in Ukraine's affairs - no more than Moscow, the cynic might say - but Washington clearly has its own game-plan."

Posted by: Bigby's Hangnail at March 03, 2014 06:16 AM (3ZtZW)

53

At times like this, I wish Hillary Clinton were Secretary of State*

 

*Things no one said, EVER

Posted by: IMWTF at March 03, 2014 06:16 AM (unWJ3)

54 The Russians already owned Ukraine via the Russian-stooge government in Ukraine. He is not invading to take Ukraine. He is invading to take back Ukraine. And Obama does not give a rat's ass about it except it may make him look bad. We can't do anything about it. Who could stop us if we decided to invade and conquer Mexico?

Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 06:16 AM (AO9UG)

55 Don't forget Taiwan. Because the Chinese sure as fuck haven't forgotten Taiwan.

Posted by: Trimegistus at March 03, 2014 06:16 AM (Zp8Kp)

56 The only way that Jugears factors into Putin's contingencies for the Ukraine is how little or much that he will allow himself to get sidetracked into punking the World's From Behind Leader. Even Preznit From Behind isn't stupid enough to make a scene on Putin's front lawn.

Posted by: ontherocks at March 03, 2014 06:17 AM (rSNKG)

57 51 Did the intelligence community really miss this? Or did the administration disregard the information, completely get it wrong, then deflect blame. Posted by: Pantera Rosa at March 03, 2014 10:15 AM (6gwQA) He skipped the meeting. He was partying with Beyonce and J-Z.

Posted by: Tami [/i][/b][/u][/s] at March 03, 2014 06:17 AM (bCEmE)

58 Posted by: Pantera Rosa at March 03, 2014 10:15 AM (6gwQA) Unless someone breaks rank, we'll never know I suggest. We're talking about an administration that believes in the power of a good speech. It's entirely possible they though that if they projected the idea that Putin wouldn't invade he actually wouldn't. They are in fact, that crazy.

Posted by: tsrblke, PhD(c) (No Really!) at March 03, 2014 06:17 AM (hq5sb)

59 I saw yesterday where Obama skipped the national security briefing again. 


All he has ever done since he's been in office (except for the obamacare disaster) is ignore problems that should not be ignored, and however things work out he either blames others if they are bad or takes credit if they are good.


If there was ever a case made that an American president is a puppet, then Obama is clearly it.  The problem is that the people who are pulling his strings are either as inept or evilly corrupt as he appears to be.

Posted by: LoneStarHeeb at March 03, 2014 06:18 AM (BZAd3)

60 I'd like to personally thank every liberal shit-brain who voted for a black guy in 2008 and 2012 so they could feel good about themselves. Now the world is spiraling into a vortex of blood and tyranny. Thanks, guys! I sure hope there's a Hell.

Posted by: Trimegistus at March 03, 2014 06:19 AM (Zp8Kp)

61 BTW - Ukraine just gave Russia a war ultimatum.

Posted by: LoneStarHeeb at March 03, 2014 06:19 AM (BZAd3)

62 You don't need to be an intelligence officer to see that Russia would intervene if the Ukranian government was overthrown. Contrary to Barone, the United States would have done the same thing in their position.

Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 06:20 AM (Z4z/q)

63

Germany is trying to step in as the honest broker, and she's well position to do so.  It's not a Risk board and you don't get armies for holding Ukraine til the next turn.  Russia's gas pipelines to Europe run through Ukraine.  Russia needs the money, Germany needs the gas.

 

Russia can't justify seizing the Crimea by "needing a warm water port".  They have it, leased until 2043, and there's no chance in hell that the lease won't be renewed. 

 

Putin has to choose between economic integration with the West (the G-8 is about to be the G-7 without him) and projecting an image of power at home.  Clearly, he feels unburdened by any harsh emotions coming from the West and his schtick plays very well at home.

 

There is nothing any US president could or would have done militarily.  We can lob tomahawks at Libya any time we want to, but we are not getting into a direct shooting war with the Russkies, especially in their back yard.  That said, Obama is a miserable bumbling fuck.  The last time he drew a red line it was Putin who saved him from himself.  Vlad has taken Obama's measure and is underwhelmed.  

 

 

 

Posted by: Col. Jessup in vagina mode at March 03, 2014 06:20 AM (A0sHn)

64 Now the world is spiraling into a vortex of blood and tyranny. ------- What are you talking about? 12 Years a Salve won last night, now we can finally start healing from the bloody tyranny wing nut.

Posted by: Low Info Voter at March 03, 2014 06:20 AM (Aif/5)

65 The main page of this site is still extremely slow to load. I don't think it's just me browser/comp, because I can visit other heavy sites just fine.

Posted by: Roadrunner at March 03, 2014 06:20 AM (4JR0P)

66 BTW - Ukraine just gave Russia a war ultimatum.

Posted by: LoneStarHeeb at March 03, 2014 10:19 AM (BZAd3)


----

Ummmm linky please or point the way....

Posted by: fixerupper at March 03, 2014 06:20 AM (nELVU)

67 well if i were V Jarret and mentor to Obama being the Iranian stooge that i might be, Russia taking Georgia or Ukraine-and Poland .. aligning with Iran as they have is good for my ideology.

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:21 AM (nqBYe)

68 60 " I'd like to personally thank every liberal shit-brain who voted for a black guy in 2008 and 2012 so they could feel good about themselves. " I don't think voting for a black guy had anything to do with the trouble the country is in. Any liberal asshole would have done the same. To conservatives, color doesn't matter.

Posted by: jwest at March 03, 2014 06:21 AM (u2a4R)

69 Drew, You forget several things. Bush pushed for Georgia and the Ukraine to join NATO and the other NATO members wouldn't go for it. Bush planned anti missiles to be stationed in Poland, Obama cancelled them. Bush knew Russia could not be trusted, Obama lives the fairy tale.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:21 AM (0FSuD)

70 Did the intelligence community really miss this? Or did the administration disregard the information, completely get it wrong, then deflect blame.

Posted by: Pantera Rosa at March 03, 2014 10:15 AM (6gwQA)



Leon P, David P, and John B know that "intelligence" serves the state, and that "intelligent" is rarely part of the service.

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:22 AM (o3MSL)

71 re adjusts my tin hat with cute propeller.

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:22 AM (nqBYe)

72 As much as I would love to help Ukraine, Drew is right. F*ck.

Posted by: Conservative Crank's iPhone at March 03, 2014 06:22 AM (R+XDI)

73 The most important effect on Russia will be the economic impact. The west has always been uncomfortable dealing with Russia anyway and now things just got worse. If Europe can get reliable sources of energy elsewhere, it will make even that relatively stronger part of the relationship wither.

Posted by: MTF at March 03, 2014 06:23 AM (F58x4)

74 51 Or did the administration disregard the information, completely get it wrong, then deflect blame.

That's just crazy talk.

Posted by: Assault Citizen Anachronda at March 03, 2014 06:23 AM (U82Km)

75 Well, one thing I'll concede to the left: Obama is definitely one historic president. Not for the reasons they think, of course.

Posted by: model_1066 at March 03, 2014 06:23 AM (KWIwL)

76 You forget several things. Bush pushed for Georgia and the Ukraine to join NATO and the other NATO members wouldn't go for it. Bush planned anti missiles to be stationed in Poland, Obama cancelled them. Bush knew Russia could not be trusted, Obama lives the fairy tale. Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 10:21 AM (0FSuD) Right Obama broke that deal right after He got in power. It was rather stunning at the time, but indicated how our policy would be.

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:24 AM (nqBYe)

77 Tired of hearing the "George Bush didn't do anything when Russia invaded Georgia" crap. Go back to 2008 and take a look at what Bush had for options. We were in 2 wars that were being compared to Vietnam every day and in every form of media. We were receiving daily body counts of soldiers killed. Republican pols were begging Bush not to come to their states. The libs had been threatening impeachment if bush did anything to Iran.
Bush was basically impotent. There was no public will to do anything militarily to intervene.

Posted by: BallOfHate at March 03, 2014 06:24 AM (vQ062)

78 One problem with the Georgia comparison is that Georgia rolled into Russian territory first. Georgia basically asked for the stomping regardless of McCain's idiotic statements.

Posted by: Chris at March 03, 2014 06:24 AM (WVeiZ)

79 http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-march-3-live-updates-338232.html

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:24 AM (bitz6)

80 >>Obama lives the fairy tale. Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 10:21 AM (0FSuD) Â…Â….his world DOES incorporate some variation of those last two words.

Posted by: ontherocks at March 03, 2014 06:24 AM (rSNKG)

81
Even though Costas loves him, Putin is a caricature - a comic dangerous romantic who sees himself an emperor feeding a Russian populous hungry for the glory of the past.

Posted by: LoneStarHeeb at March 03, 2014 06:25 AM (BZAd3)

82 If the MSM and Dems hadn't demonized every Military action Bush undertook (usually after voting for it). The Georgia attack happened in August 2008, at the end of Bush's 2nd term, and after they had been beating him down for years.

Posted by: Palinista at March 03, 2014 06:25 AM (vNtLj)

83 By the way Drew, there was ZERO risk of losing access to Sevastopol. It's a silly thing to say. Sevastopol is now, was and would always be recognized by Ukraine as a special administrative zone, effectively part of Russia. Saying something like this is simply repeating the Kremlin line of justification.

Posted by: MTF at March 03, 2014 06:25 AM (F58x4)

84 Mon, Mar 3, 2014, 10:25 AM EST and Dow is down by 171, but there is no linkage to world events rather it is all driven by climate change concerns!

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:26 AM (o3MSL)

85 look while Putin was eye balling Crimea and Ukraine , Obama was speechifying about how gay people deserved special treatments. with help from the media. If I were Putin and this was the best commentary and poke in the eye the West could come up with , What would you do?

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:26 AM (nqBYe)

86 /fucking sock from last week

Posted by: Frumious Bandersnatch at March 03, 2014 06:27 AM (A0sHn)

87 Right on the money. This is perhaps the best short analysis I have read on Ukraine-- much better than a lot of the swill being pitched by the legacy media.

Posted by: Jeremy at March 03, 2014 06:27 AM (I/JRK)

88 The Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe so Drew has that right. The Ukraine is fucking BROKE. They are on Russia's tit and Russia wants to be paid back. Now they want to abandon those debts and be on the EU tit. Don't forget, the largest gas pipeline in the world goes through Ukraine taking Russian gas to the EU. Shit could get real it Ukraine decides to slow or stop the flow. Remember when they did this a few years ago to get Russia to give them a discount on the gas they took? It worked and Russia paid them off. Think Russia is happy about that? The Ukrainians are a slippery bunch.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:29 AM (0FSuD)

89 Russia's motivation in Ukraine is nationalistic, having more to do with Putins proposed "Empire-light", which Drew laughingly refers to as a "customs union", and imperial, having to do with Putins desire to reassert Russian influence in the former Soviet republics.

Posted by: MTF at March 03, 2014 06:29 AM (F58x4)

90 Posted by: Col. Jessup in vagina mode at March 03, 2014 10:20 AM (A0sHn) The new government in Ukraine has expressed their hatred for Russia and stupidly poked the bear with their anti Russian language so no treaty is guaranteed. Of course any refusal to renew a treaty would result in the same military intervention.

Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 06:30 AM (Z4z/q)

91 Using Bush and Romney as your template for alternative Presidents is a mistake.  The gold standard was Reagan who knew how to deal with the Rooskis.  And promote freedom for oppressed people.

Posted by: Captain Hate at March 03, 2014 06:30 AM (xowO9)

92 Flat Earth Deniers.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:30 AM (bitz6)

93 The Ukrainians are a slippery bunch.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 10:29 AM (0FSuD)


Didn't "12 Years a Slav" win the Oscars?

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:30 AM (o3MSL)

94

We also have a general interest in promoting our values.  Remember American Exceptionalism?  It used to be a thing.  The world is a better place when people trade freely, don't bully their neighbors and don't oppress their populaces. 

 

Some commenters here think that the ousted government of Ukraine was peachy because it was elected.  Democracy per se is the least good part of the American way.  Voting for oppressors still leaves you oppressed.  Freedom is the key.  The old government in Kiev was shooting unarmed protesters dead by the score.  That is a Bad Thing.  Elected murderers are just murderers.

Posted by: Frumious Bandersnatch at March 03, 2014 06:31 AM (A0sHn)

95 "Do you really think they were going to risk losing access to their outlet to the Black Sea and from there the Mediterranean?" Opening mouth and removing all doubt... The USSR fell more than 20 years ago and that access to the Black Sea has been through Ukraine since then. I doubt that Russia only just noticed that so why did it become a major issue now?

Posted by: suitably adequate at March 03, 2014 06:31 AM (SM5M0)

96 Good summary, DrewM.

Posted by: backhoe at March 03, 2014 06:32 AM (ULH4o)

97 Bush made at least one fatal mistake in dealing with the Democrats. He was too nice them and let them erode away his Presidency. FYNQ next time.

Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 06:32 AM (AO9UG)

98 I don't think voting for a black guy had anything to do with the trouble the country is in. Any liberal asshole would have done the same.



Posted by: jwest at March 03, 2014 10:21 AM (u2a4R)



Yes, but see, the reason this particular liberal   asshole is in the White House is because      people voted for him to feel good about themselves for overcoming racism or something.        



Hillary probably wouldn't have been any better,   on account of her being a vag-bag of   Who Gives a Fuck,   but again, she'd have won because people wanted to vote to feel good about themselves for overcoming sexism or something.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 06:34 AM (4df7R)

99 My own impression of US response to Ukraine is that it is a handy distraction from Venezuela. Open borders?

Posted by: Mustbequantum at March 03, 2014 06:34 AM (MIKMs)

100 Drew starts off his post with a drive-by rejection of the argument "American weakness emboldens despots and warlords" but then ignores it throughout his post. He does that because American weakness really does embolden despots and warlords, as history shows us. Continuing military capability at high levels makes diplomacy far more effective, not less so.

Posted by: MTF at March 03, 2014 06:34 AM (F58x4)

101 Whether we like it or not, Russia sees itself as having real and important interests in Ukraine. That they protect them in ways that we donÂ’t like doesnÂ’t factor into the conversation. It's almost like other people are individuals with their own agency and free will and views of the world and goals and desires independent of what others think those goals and desires should be. Who would athunk it?

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Mmmm. Blondies with whipped cream. at March 03, 2014 06:35 AM (VtjlW)

102 You have a good point, DrewM. I would argue, however, that Obama's foreign policy postures make him look especially weak. Remember that he (and his ludicrous "reset/overcharge" button) was supposed to change all that. All these guys think that they are smart and they think that their opposite numbers are smart and, of course, all smart people think exactly the same way. They aren't bound by tradition or religion or ethnicity or politics or culture or any of those other silly things.

Posted by: AmishDude at March 03, 2014 06:35 AM (T0NGe)

103 Let's not forget some history. The Crimea was mostly Muslim Tartars. Stalin deported all of them to the Mts, some have returned. Until Khrushchev, who was from the Ukraine, gave the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, it had been Russian.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:35 AM (0FSuD)

104 Don't worry, I'm taking a hard stand. Israel will agree to a peace agreement regardless of how they feel about it.

Posted by: King Barakakan I at March 03, 2014 06:35 AM (Aif/5)

105 No one will go to war over the Ukraine, except Ukrainians and Russians The idea of financial penalties are a joke. Russia needs western banks, but the US needs China to buy our paper, and China just sided with the Russians. We will do nothing All the global power in the world right now is in Russia and China, and is limited only by their own ambitions we have ceased to be a player Putin thinks the greatest tragedy in this century is the collapse of the Soviet Union. He is ambitious Other soviet bloc countries beware. He's getting the band back together, whether they like it or not

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 06:35 AM (zOTsN)

106 One other thing, Ukraine was negotiating with the EU. This is their bag, not ours.

Posted by: AmishDude at March 03, 2014 06:35 AM (T0NGe)

107 91 Posted by: Col. Jessup in vagina mode at March 03, 2014 10:20 AM (A0sHn) The new government in Ukraine has expressed their hatred for Russia and stupidly poked the bear with their anti Russian language so no treaty is guaranteed. Of course any refusal to renew a treaty would result in the same military intervention. Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 10:30 AM (Z4z/q) Yeah, they should have asked nicely not to oppressed in a satrapy. Silly rabbits.

Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 06:36 AM (AO9UG)

108 The SCOAMF and the Secretary of State are simpering pussies.

Posted by: Insomniac at March 03, 2014 06:36 AM (DrWcr)

109 Another "red line" just like the "yellow line" down Obama's back.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (0FSuD)

110 Another "red line" just like the "yellow line" down Obama's back.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (0FSuD)

111 "Russia has been fanatical about access to a warm water port since Peter the Great."

Actually, it's longer than that: it was Tsar Ivan IV ("Ivan the Terrible") who first seized Russia's ports on the Black Sea, back in the 16th century.  But you point is well taken: the Black Sea region has been a major strategic concern to Russia for quite a long time.

Posted by: Brown Line at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (VrNoa)

112 "Russia has been fanatical about access to a warm water port since Peter the Great."

Actually, it's longer than that: it was Tsar Ivan IV ("Ivan the Terrible") who first seized Russia's ports on the Black Sea, back in the 16th century.  But you point is well taken: the Black Sea region has been a major strategic concern to Russia for quite a long time.

Posted by: Brown Line at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (VrNoa)

113 Another gratuitous slam against Bush/Romney from Drew. So boring.....

Posted by: prettypinkfluffypanties at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (LAI1e)

114 Another gratuitous slam against Bush/Romney from Drew. So boring.....

Posted by: prettypinkfluffypanties at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (LAI1e)

115 Posted by: Frumious Bandersnatch at March 03, 2014 10:31 AM (A0sHn) No one said it was peachy dickhead. It was though legitimately elected. Part of our exceptionalism is our process to resolve issues through elections. The protestors chose to decline that path. This is the obvious result.

Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (Z4z/q)

116 Posted by: Frumious Bandersnatch at March 03, 2014 10:31 AM (A0sHn) No one said it was peachy dickhead. It was though legitimately elected. Part of our exceptionalism is our process to resolve issues through elections. The protestors chose to decline that path. This is the obvious result.

Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (Z4z/q)

117 The good news today? Snow has closed down DC and the Fed government is not working, so they can not fuck up anything today.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (0FSuD)

118 The good news today? Snow has closed down DC and the Fed government is not working, so they can not fuck up anything today.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:37 AM (0FSuD)

119 Surely, we have peace in our time.

Posted by: Neal Marx, American Newsman at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (6ahup)

120 Surely, we have peace in our time.

Posted by: Neal Marx, American Newsman at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (6ahup)

121 Fuck the EU.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (bitz6)

122 Fuck the EU.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (bitz6)

123 The thug does have a point...

Posted by: Dang at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (MNq6o)

124 The thug does have a point...

Posted by: Dang at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (MNq6o)

125 Putin made a very simple and accurate calculationÂ…no US President or European leader was going to go to war over Ukraine.
==========
Which is fine and all.

But, what if the Ukrainians decide they are willing to go to war over the Ukraine?


Posted by: RoyalOil at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (VjL9S)

126 Putin made a very simple and accurate calculationÂ…no US President or European leader was going to go to war over Ukraine.
==========
Which is fine and all.

But, what if the Ukrainians decide they are willing to go to war over the Ukraine?


Posted by: RoyalOil at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (VjL9S)

127

>>>The old government in Kiev was shooting unarmed protesters dead by the score. That is a Bad Thing. Elected murderers are just murderers.

 

They *wanted* to be shot! Consent of the Governed still applies!

Posted by: Bigby's Hangnail at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (3ZtZW)

128

>>>The old government in Kiev was shooting unarmed protesters dead by the score. That is a Bad Thing. Elected murderers are just murderers.

 

They *wanted* to be shot! Consent of the Governed still applies!

Posted by: Bigby's Hangnail at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (3ZtZW)

129 The protestors should have just accepted being killed. And enjoyed it.

Posted by: Some Asshole at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (Aif/5)

130 The good news today?

Snow has closed down DC and the Fed government is not working, so they can not fuck up anything today.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 10:37 AM (0FSuD)

 

That just means the fuckuppery is on autopilot.

Posted by: Insomniac at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (DrWcr)

131 The protestors should have just accepted being killed. And enjoyed it.

Posted by: Some Asshole at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (Aif/5)

132 The good news today?

Snow has closed down DC and the Fed government is not working, so they can not fuck up anything today.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 10:37 AM (0FSuD)

 

That just means the fuckuppery is on autopilot.

Posted by: Insomniac at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (DrWcr)

133 Mon, Mar 3, 2014, 10:25 AM EST and Dow is down by 171, but there is no linkage to world events rather it is all driven by climate change concerns!

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 10:26 AM (o3MSL)


What are you talking about?

http://www.marketwatch.com/  Headline: "Stocks keep falling, as Ukraine tops strong ISM"


Bloomberg: "U.S. Stocks Fall Amid Global Equities Selloff on Ukraine"

http://tinyurl.com/nx9lww7


Also, tighten the belt a little more at home so you'll be able to afford to eat:



Commodity prices: http://tinyurl.com/llsl3hd

Posted by: Country Singer at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (L8r/r)

134 Mon, Mar 3, 2014, 10:25 AM EST and Dow is down by 171, but there is no linkage to world events rather it is all driven by climate change concerns!

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 10:26 AM (o3MSL)


What are you talking about?

http://www.marketwatch.com/  Headline: "Stocks keep falling, as Ukraine tops strong ISM"


Bloomberg: "U.S. Stocks Fall Amid Global Equities Selloff on Ukraine"

http://tinyurl.com/nx9lww7


Also, tighten the belt a little more at home so you'll be able to afford to eat:



Commodity prices: http://tinyurl.com/llsl3hd

Posted by: Country Singer at March 03, 2014 06:38 AM (L8r/r)

135 Ukrainians are indeed a slippery bunch, and their economy is in far worse shape than the Georgian economy was just prior to the shooting war opening with Russia. We had more interest in supporting Georgia, if we were going to support only one in the area, than we do in Ukraine. Except for one fact: we seem to have some sort of a treaty obligation with Ukraine. Other treaty beneficiaries are watching our actions closely, because there is so much skepticism about the Obama administration. This isn't about Ukraine,in other words, its about Obama.

Posted by: MTF at March 03, 2014 06:39 AM (F58x4)

136 Recall that in 2008 Vladimir Putin undertook a similar operation in the South Ossetia region of Georgia. Was George W. Bush viewed as weak and vacillating by Putin? Had Bush appeared to the world as week and unwilling to use military force in a crisis? No. But Putin probably viewed GWB as weakened by Iraq and Afghanistan--and the all out war waged by the MSM and the Democrats. Also, because of those wars, we were already spread too thin, militarily speaking. And note the timing of the Russia-Georgia conflict (200 . Even if GWB would have acted militarily in defense of Georgia, Putin knew that he would be gone soon.

Posted by: baldilocks filipova at March 03, 2014 06:40 AM (36Rjy)

137 Hitler was legitimately elected.

Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 06:40 AM (AO9UG)

138 Mommy, Vlad won't listen to me!

That's all right, dear.  Go kick a Jew instead.

Posted by: Adventures with Barky at March 03, 2014 06:40 AM (KQp38)

139 'smart power' or just the watchman over our decline into the abyss.

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:41 AM (nqBYe)

140 The Ukrainian Protesters should have just lied back and thought of England as they bled out.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:41 AM (bitz6)

141 Spot on, Drew.

Putin will keep Crimea under Russian control as long as there is an unfriendly regime in Ukraine.  And the rest of Europe will huff and puff, but in the end they need that Russian gas to keep flowing through those pipelines that run through Ukraine.


Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 03, 2014 06:42 AM (Z7PrM)

142 @123 The Budapest accord is total BS and is not a treaty. See thread a few days ago. We have no treaty obligations with the Ukraine.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:42 AM (0FSuD)

143 Which NATO country is going to help Ukraine with military force?

Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 06:42 AM (AO9UG)

144 Hitler was not elected.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:42 AM (bitz6)

145 From WZ: WH official says Russia has taken control of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine and appears to be preparing to occupy the territory, a senior Obama administration official said Sunday. 


Unexpectedly, of course!

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:43 AM (o3MSL)

146 But, what if the Ukrainians decide they are willing to go to war over the Ukraine? Posted by: RoyalOil exactly this post is very good except it ignore three things 1. It displays how far we have retreated from the world stage 2. It shows how little influence we have 3. Our enemies are watching, and will seek to exploit this perceived impotence this s how really big wars start. With little ones

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 06:43 AM (zOTsN)

147 "Bush knew Russia could not be trusted, Obama lives the fairy tale." Putin is not Obama's enemy. We are.

Posted by: RayJ at March 03, 2014 06:43 AM (pI/IV)

148 Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 10:40 AM (AO9UG) You may want to brush up on your history.

Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 06:43 AM (Z4z/q)

149 yes the Written words of our President's means nothing.

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:43 AM (nqBYe)

150 Oh, and President Romney would have done something even more substantive. He would have opened the Keystone XL pipeline, which is the one thing we can do that will devastate Putin.

Posted by: AmishDude at March 03, 2014 06:43 AM (T0NGe)

151 So what? If you can't explain why this matters to me in less than 25 words, I do not care. And I will go on assuming obama is handling the situation well.

Posted by: a Low Info Dumb Voter at March 03, 2014 06:43 AM (MLwNA)

152 125 Hitler was legitimately elected. Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 10:40 AM (AO9UG) And he invade the Sudetenland, why? Because they spoke German, same excuse Putin is using in Crimea, they speak Russian.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:44 AM (0FSuD)

153

Posted by: Country Singer at March 03, 2014 10:38 AM (L8r/r)


I forgot the /sarc tag.

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:45 AM (o3MSL)

154 @139 If you can't explain why this matters to me in less than 25 words, Wheat Corn Pipeline. That's three words.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:45 AM (0FSuD)

155 In our measured expert opinion Putin will stop with Georgia...er...I mean Ukraine.

Posted by: Neal Marx, American Newsman at March 03, 2014 06:45 AM (6ahup)

156 The errors are not what Obama has done after the overthrow but what he didn't do before. They are a lazy, lazy crew. Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 10:05 AM (Z4z/q) --- Yup.

Posted by: votermom at March 03, 2014 06:45 AM (GSIDW)

157 I kicked Hitler's ass.

Posted by: Field Marshall Hindenburg at March 03, 2014 06:45 AM (bitz6)

158 Total diplomacy and intelligence failure. A defeat in detail. The message from Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Ukraine is disarmament is for suckers. Our "spies" somehow missed an invasion in progress after saying it would not occur.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 06:45 AM (sOtz/)

159 143 In our measured expert opinion Putin will stop with Georgia...er...I mean Ukraine. Yeah, we heard that shit in 1939 too.

Posted by: Poland at March 03, 2014 06:46 AM (0FSuD)

160 Oh, look who's playing nice and holding hands: http://tinyurl.com/padts2h

Posted by: Country Singer at March 03, 2014 06:46 AM (L8r/r)

161 Fat lot of good those Russian pipelines through Ukraine will do anyone after the first Ukrainian with a block of Semtex gets to them.

Posted by: Trimegistus at March 03, 2014 06:46 AM (Zp8Kp)

162 Putin asked Hillary to translate Lebensraum into Russian, but the word she came up with actually translated as "Peace in our time!"

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:46 AM (o3MSL)

163
Russia and China are working in concert and putting the squeeze on Obama.  He's the mark at the poker table.  They know he won't put any chips into challenge the pot and they will just take turns grabbing the antes. 

A Ukraine for you, a Japanese island for me.....

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at March 03, 2014 06:46 AM (gorVZ)

164 I do agree the EU should have more interests to protect than US. (with exception of us with egge all over our face) And as they heckled us all through Bush , undermining us with the Dems, anyway Perhaps it is time we take the EU knife out of our back and Make them actually protect their own interests without our blood.

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:47 AM (nqBYe)

165 Good morning, morons. A late hello from me. We are iced in. 80 degrees on Saturday, 26 and heavy sleet/ice Sunday. I hope you all had a wonderful weekend. Now to try and catch up...

Posted by: DangerGirl at March 03, 2014 06:47 AM (GrtrJ)

166 "The President asked Mr. Putin, in fact told Mr. Putin that it was imperative to find a different path, to roll back this invasion and un-do this act of invasion. He pointed out the many different ways in which Russia could have chosen to act. I mean if you have legitimate concerns about your citizens go to the United Nations, ask for observers, engage the other countryÂ’s government. There were any number of choices available to Russia, Russia chose this brazen act aggression and moved in with its forces on a completely trumped set of pre-texts claiming that people were threatened and the fact is that is not the act of somebody who is strong that is the act of somebody who is acting out of weakness and out of a certain kind of desperation.."


- SecState John Kerry on      Sunday's    Face the Nation,   in regards to Putin   sending troops into Ukraine




Top.   Men.


Top.  FUCKING.  Men.


Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 06:47 AM (4df7R)

167 Its really not about what Obama could or would do to thwart Putin and Russia. Its about have a coherent policy towards the two and not changing official White House position from day to day so that the policy of the day somehow matches what Russia is doing or has already done. Are we for or against Russia invading Crimea ? If we're against it, does calling their invasion a "unopposed arrival" further things ? The simple fact of the matter is that the Obama foreign policy is an all out incoherent disaster. And when and if the day comes where the outcome COULD be in doubt, Obama / Kerry / Clinton have long since set the precedent that they are entirely feckless and the US and our interests are royally SCREWED. But by all means, give the retard a pass because the outcome in this case likely wouldn't be different if a competent human had won the election rather than a retarded partisan ideologue.

Posted by: deadrody at March 03, 2014 06:47 AM (b2D8X)

168 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Putin in the Ukraine, China bullying Japan, and Venezuela circling the bowl. When does Democrat Happy Hour start?

Posted by: Earflaps McTuffguy (aka Brave Brave Sir Robin) at March 03, 2014 06:47 AM (QLbhS)

169 Hitler came in second place and was never elected.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:47 AM (bitz6)

170 Hitler was not elected, but he was legitimately appointed Chancellor. The was no coup or revolution like we say in Ukraine.

Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 06:47 AM (AO9UG)

171 Fat lot of good those Russian pipelines through Ukraine will do anyone after the first Ukrainian with a block of Semtex gets to them. Posted by: Trimegistus my money is on the Tartars

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 06:47 AM (zOTsN)

172 Re Drew There is a difference between not doing anything because there aren't any options and actually laying out a welcome mat. Which is what The One did when he called the Russian invasion of Ukraine an "uncontested arrival".

Posted by: RayJ at March 03, 2014 06:48 AM (pI/IV)

173 Damn iPad typos.

Posted by: eman at March 03, 2014 06:48 AM (AO9UG)

174 149 Fat lot of good those Russian pipelines through Ukraine will do anyone after the first Ukrainian with a block of Semtex gets to them. Won't happen. Winter still going on and the Ukraine heats itself with the gas from that pipeline.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:48 AM (0FSuD)

175 Perhaps it is time we take the EU knife out of our back and Make them actually protect their own interests without our blood.

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 10:47 AM (nqBYe)


What's that you say?

Posted by: WW I and WW II at March 03, 2014 06:48 AM (o3MSL)

176 "The simple fact of the matter is that the Obama foreign policy is an all out incoherent disaster." Pfffft. Just for that little crack, I'll have TWO cosmopolitans at happy hour.

Posted by: Earflaps McTuffguy (aka Brave Brave Sir Robin) at March 03, 2014 06:48 AM (QLbhS)

177 Wait, you think the Russians will go on supplying Ukraine with energy when they're at war with each other?

Posted by: Trimegistus at March 03, 2014 06:48 AM (Zp8Kp)

178 anyway, a i said earlier, I'm sure we are dealing with a much more benevolent Bear than in days past. and this won't weaken our stature in the world a bit , the world will now love us. and peas on urf will reign

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:49 AM (nqBYe)

179 131 " Which NATO country is going to help Ukraine with military force?" Which side do you think the Ukrainian military will fight for? (remember that the military speaks Russian, almost all of the enlisted come from western, pro-Russia Ukraine and the officer corps is Russian trained.)

Posted by: jwest at March 03, 2014 06:49 AM (u2a4R)

180 Better Red than dead.

Posted by: Neal Marx, American Newsman at March 03, 2014 06:49 AM (6ahup)

181 Hitler was never elected. He ran, and the Weimers forged a coalition to prevent him from being elected, because if they didn't, he would have been. Its not real to pretend he did not have the approval of a majority of Germans. He did.

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 06:50 AM (zOTsN)

182 Holy shit. Major shake-ups at the top of my company. The guy who hired me got let go. He was a good guy too. Bad news all around. Some bad eggs just got bumped up. Hoping all the bloodletting is at the top, and glad right now that I'm in the middle. Thanks, ObamEconomy!

Posted by: Citizen X at March 03, 2014 06:50 AM (7ObY1)

183 TOP.MEN that would not appear on Fox News with Chris Wallace!

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:50 AM (o3MSL)

184
Fun fact:

Ukraine has been an independent state for 23 years, longer than Poland and Czechoslovakia had been when that whole WWII business broke out.


Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at March 03, 2014 06:50 AM (kdS6q)

185 165 Wait, you think the Russians will go on supplying Ukraine with energy when they're at war with each other? Yep. The gas continues on to the EU and Russia needs the cash from it's sale. Without the gas money, Russia will go down the tubes in about six months.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:50 AM (0FSuD)

186 What's that you say? Posted by: WW I and WW II at March 03, 2014 10:48 AM (o3MSL) i was speaking of the last decade . and perhaps a go for WW111?

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:50 AM (nqBYe)

187

What about the 1994 Budapest agreement we signed saying we'd protect Ukraine if they gave up their nukes ?

 

Or are we just telling them "You fucked up, you trusted us !"

 

http://tinyurl.com/okky4dq


 

Posted by: McCool at March 03, 2014 06:51 AM (nCSwS)

188 and peas on urf will reign Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 10:49 AM (nqBYe) ~ Peas and hominy

Posted by: Mr. Feverhead at March 03, 2014 06:51 AM (6ahup)

189 Fat lot of good those Russian pipelines through Ukraine will do anyone after the first Ukrainian with a block of Semtex gets to them.

That's actually Putin's point of the invasion, that will be guarded 24/365 from here on out.


Posted by: Guy Mohawk at March 03, 2014 06:52 AM (gorVZ)

190 Hillary Clinton and Lavrov hit the "reset" button.

http://tinyurl.com/ohgzvjv

Who knew it was the "we give you the OK to trample other independent states button?

Posted by: Marcus T at March 03, 2014 06:52 AM (GGCsk)

191 "Here, go ahead and have half of Ukraine    Czechoslovakia.   But promise not to take the rest!"


"Yeah... sure."



New    news, same as the old news.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 06:52 AM (4df7R)

192 Tartars will blow up that gas line. Kurds do that all the time in Turkey

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 06:52 AM (zOTsN)

193 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Putin in the Ukraine, China bullying Japan, and Venezuela circling the bowl. When does Democrat Happy Hour start? Posted by: Earflaps McTuffguy (aka Brave Brave Sir Robin) at March 03, 2014 10:47 AM (QLbhS) Imagine what Kind of message that was to Putin. "Yeah we're busy playing, go ahead and do as you want!"

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (nqBYe)

194 Drew, this post is far too cerebral and nuanced. We're trying to reach the LIV's, remember that! Don't waste time with a lot of thought - we're out of power, so all we have to say is PUTIN PUNKED THE US - AND OBAMA MADE IT HAPPEN!!! Just repeat that over and over, analysis and thought actually hurt our position, because they distract from the message. Just repeat PUTIN PUNKED THE US - AND OBAMA MADE IT HAPPEN!!!! over and over and over and over, for at least the next 3 years. (if the dems are any guide, this could be a theme for the next decade!) and THAT is how you win elections!!! After you win them, of course, then you start worrying about what to do next. Or not - Obama never did.

Posted by: Tom Servo at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (8Fa5Z)

195

>>If BushÂ’s decisive, unilateral, cowboy persona didn't lead Putin to lay low, why should we assume that launching a few cruise missiles (remember "just muscular enough not to get mocked"?), would have been a decisive factor in PutinÂ’s Ukraine calculations?

.

.

.I call BS on this.  Putin knew that Bush was completely constrained by a Democratic congress that hated him and "his illegal unilateral wars".  There was no way they would vote to give anything to Bush and Putin knew it.  Bush was a lame Duck and the entire world knew that the Dems were running the country at that time and would not let Bush do anything.

Posted by: Registered Voter at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (TCFwA)

196 russia has lots of interests in the ukraine. so what? obama and his clueless minions should have seen this coming and been heading it off. we have total information awareness and all he got is this? maybe obama should spend some time looking outwards and leave the tea party alone for a while. more or less every option for dealing with russian designs on the crimea and or ukraine are better for keeping them out than from getting them out after they invade. obama sucks. he sucks at everything in everyway. it is all his fault, no one should give and inch of slack in this.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (rDidD)

197 A few things for you to consider Drew: It was obama that shit canned the Missile Shield that President Bush negotiated for Poland and the Check Republic. It was obama that told the Russia he'd have more flexiability after the election. It is obama that is gutting the Defense Budget

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (t3UFN)

198 David Fromkin's "A Peace To End All Peace" about the division of the Ottoman Empire after WW1 is a timely read. Interestingly, the book talks about how the Russians have historically coveted--seriously coveted--access to Costantinope/Istanbul and the Mediterranean, which is another way of saying they've historically coveted warm-water-port access, and have gone to war when the opportunity to gain such territory has arisen. Seizing Crimea instead of Ukraine proper makes perfect geostrategic sense from a Russian perspective. Oh, and publicly pegging Obama is Putin's lagniappe.

Posted by: General Zod at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (2+bRt)

199 A better summary of the situation in Ukraine, even though its from Rueters. http://reut.rs/1dgzk5A

Posted by: MTF at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (F58x4)

200 The real failure was our intelligence community saying that Putin wouldn't act right up until he did act. You could even have predicted that Putin would act as soon as Sochi was over. This was Group Think blindness.
=========
Suppose Putin learned that from Sowden?

I mean, of course, if you're paying attention, you just have to watch TV to see this is a regime that only sees enemies domestic.

But, suppose he saw the pattern of _what_ they were looking at and knew they'd never see him?

Posted by: RoyalOil at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (VjL9S)

201 If you want to oppose them and stop them from perusing a particular goal, you either have to offer them something of greater value or make the cost of doing it prohibitive. Well, that leaves fucking Obama out. He has no interest whatsoever let alone something to offer of greater value or making it prohibitive.

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at March 03, 2014 06:53 AM (HVff2)

202 the die was cast for the russians in the ukraine (and a lot of other things) the moment obama threw mubarek under the bus plain and simple israel is next, which means israel WILL attack iran now probably sooner rather than later followed by china making a big move look for saudi arabia and japan to get nukes shortly along with ukraine the whole time we are decimating our military capabilities elections have consequences elections have consequences elections have consequences

Posted by: sound awake at March 03, 2014 06:54 AM (fKOqs)

203 And on top of it all obama finds it necessary to threaten Israel, an Allie, at this point and time. If I were Bibi I'd overflow the White House toilet and leave

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 06:54 AM (t3UFN)

204 @175 Read last section of "accord" number six. The parties agree to "consult" with each other. http://tinyurl.com/mjkgjzq Consult this bitch.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 06:54 AM (0FSuD)

205 i was speaking of the last decade .
and perhaps a go for WW111?

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 10:50 AM (nqBYe)



In Europe machinations, one takes the long view of at least a century.


There is simply no way a few minor events in a little country cold get us involved in a World War, we've evolved past that.



Unless something unexpected happens.

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:54 AM (o3MSL)

206 Little Miss Muffet sat on a tuffet eating her kurds and whey.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 06:55 AM (bitz6)

207 A few things for you to consider Drew: It was obama that shit canned the Missile Shield that President Bush negotiated for Poland and the Check Republic. It was obama that told the Russia he'd have more flexiability after the election. It is obama that is gutting the Defense Budget Posted by: Nevergiveup this this this this this

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 06:55 AM (zOTsN)

208 Obama will claim the Crimean war we're not going to be spending money on is a spending cut. Bank on it.

Posted by: spongeworthy at March 03, 2014 06:55 AM (g3wv2)

209 cold<-could

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:55 AM (o3MSL)

210 I go  away for 10 days  and the world goes to hell.  Just sayin'.

Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 06:55 AM (xMLV7)

211 "186 David Fromkin's "A Peace To End All Peace" about the division of the Ottoman Empire after WW1 is a timely read. " It was an exhaustive read anyway, but it certainly covers the history of the area.

Posted by: MTF at March 03, 2014 06:56 AM (F58x4)

212 There is simply no way a few minor events in a little country cold get us involved in a World War, we've evolved past that. really? what makes you believe that? Because I think history is rhyming again

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 06:56 AM (zOTsN)

213 It was obama that shit canned the Missile Shield that President Bush negotiated for Poland and the Check Republic. It was obama that told the Russia he'd have more flexiability after the election. It is obama that is gutting the Defense Budget Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 10:53 AM (t3UFN) ty, short and sweet

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 06:56 AM (nqBYe)

214 Obama will claim the Crimean war we're not going to be spending money on is a spending cut. Bank on it.

Posted by: spongeworthy at March 03, 2014 10:55 AM (g3wv2)


And contrast his mature response to that of cowboy GWB's Wars for Oil!

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:56 AM (o3MSL)

215 all the same, even worse than obama fucking up so badly that we lost the ukraine is anything he may do to try to reverse the mess. he is desperate and flailing. at least vlad is reasonable.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 06:57 AM (rDidD)

216 obama and his clueless minions should have seen this coming and been heading it off. we have total information awareness and all he got is this? maybe obama should spend some time looking outwards and leave the tea party alone for a while.


Silly yankee!   If they did THAT     it'd be tantamount to admitting that Romney was right during the 2012 campaign when he said Russia was     re-emerging as a powerful    potential enemy of the US!  

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 06:57 AM (4df7R)

217 Guys, I think everyone should read this here: http://goo.gl/UKAD7H

Posted by: Patrick in Michigan at March 03, 2014 06:57 AM (OhrW4)

218 "That may leave a lot of people out in the cold and at the mercy of some nasty actors but that's the story of humanity." I remember when Reagan spoke these words to Gorbachev like it was yesterday.

Posted by: Neal Marx, American Newsman at March 03, 2014 06:57 AM (6ahup)

219 190 the die was cast for the russians in the ukraine (and a lot of other things) the moment obama threw mubarek under the bus plain and simple -- Yup. Obama is like a chess player capturing his own pieces.

Posted by: votermom at March 03, 2014 06:57 AM (GSIDW)

220 Ya know a call up right now would not be financially beneficial to me right now, but the way I feel, bring it on and I'll deal with it.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 06:58 AM (t3UFN)

221 By the way, there are so many strawmen and false premises in this post I lost count.

Start with the fact that nobody threatened their port access. Ukraine gets too much out of that.

And this is due to Obama's foreign policy (or a lack thereof). He's still hitting the "reset" and failed to provide any response to every encroachment. It is a failure epic in proportion to the grotesque mistakes which led to World War II.

What he has also done is displayed to every nation possessing or aspiring to possess nuclear weapons that  we won't be there to help. It has shown the flaccid nature of Obama's America and that we can't be trusted.

That, in and off itself, has made the world a more dangerous place. 

Posted by: Marcus T at March 03, 2014 06:58 AM (GGCsk)

222 I wish Kerry would shut up rather than remove all doubt.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 06:58 AM (sOtz/)

223 121 The good news today? Snow has closed down DC and the Fed government is not working, so they can not fuck up anything today.

That just means the fuckuppery is on autopilot. plausible deniability!

fixt

Posted by: Anachronda at March 03, 2014 06:58 AM (U82Km)

224 what makes you believe that? Because I think history is rhyming again

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 10:56 AM (zOTsN)



193: Unless something unexpected happens.

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 06:58 AM (o3MSL)

225

When Putin invaded Georgia he more than likely thought about the U.S response for a few minutes.

It only took him a nano second to think about the U.S response this time because of the clown in the White House and State Department.

Does anyone really think we have any crediablity in the world because of Obama? He did not even bother going to this briefing for Gods sake.

We are so screwed

 

Posted by: jmm at March 03, 2014 06:58 AM (K6mgj)

226 Drew, you're largely right about all this, but the problem with Obama & Co. is that they are superficial idiots who think they're smart and have the proper progressive feewings. Here is Kerry:

"You just don't, in the 21st century, behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext," Kerry told the CBS program "Face the Nation".

What kind of serious adult, let alone a person in Kerry's position, say something like that on national (now international) television? Is this what passes for policy instinct in the White House? Instead of saying idiotic things like this, and that drivel about "there will be costs!", why didn't Kerry and the WH come out and lead some talks about the future of Ukraine? Yes, it's talk, but it's not like we're going to lob a nuke over Russia's wanting a Black Sea port.

Obama and Kerry could've been statesman. Instead, their asses are hanging out and they look like fools. Little countries everywhere are now checking their ammunition stores.

Posted by: Feh at March 03, 2014 06:58 AM (v2tHD)

227 Unless something unexpected happens. -------- We get sent into Crimea to hold it while the regular army takes rest of Ukraine. We have bad reputation of murdering civilians and ethnic groups for fun. We start killing Tatars. NATO member Turkey takes this personally. Unexpectedly.

Posted by: OMON at March 03, 2014 06:58 AM (Aif/5)

228 Putin has this already gamed and he knows what moves TFG and Lurch will make 5 moves before they do. Putin knows all he has to do is flash some military moves knowing that TFG and Lurch won't push it. All he has to do is agree to a meeting where he gets most of what he wants or everything he wants as long as TFG can preen to the cameras about his awesome peace deals. As long as the MFM can claim "OBAMA WINS AGAIN", they'll hand over everything Putin wants without firing a shot See: "Syrian Peace Deal" and "Iranian Nukes Deal"

Posted by: kbdabear at March 03, 2014 06:59 AM (aTXUx)

229

We've seen this movie before. What's going on now is similar to the events leading up to WWII: expansionist dictatorships are on the move, looking for their day in the sun. Meanwhile, the countries comprising what used to be called the Free World (for lack of a better term) are vacillating and weak, eager to appease and ready to spin any failures as necessary and wise concessions to realpolitik.

 

Putin has already annexed Crimea. He will next fabricate a provocation so that he can crush the Ukrainian military and gain more or less permanent control over eastern Ukraine using the presence of the Sudenten Germans, er, sorry, the ethnic Russians living there.  

 

I'm guessing China will use all of this furor to annex a few contested islands of its own and declare the South China Sea as Chinese territory in toto. A few other bad guys, such as Iran, North Korea, and Syria under Assad will probably also make a few moves of their own. Why not? The window is open. Obama is proven to be feckless and weak, with his Secretary of State running about going on about global warming and issuing threats to Israel (!). From the perspective of our geopolitical opponents, it would be foolish not to take advantage of the opportunity. We'll likely never see a President this weak and foolish for another hundred years.

 

And those of you who claim we have no interest in any of this are badly, sadly mistaken. We've seen that movie before, too.

Posted by: troyriser at March 03, 2014 06:59 AM (gNlvW)

230 The Return to Fulda Brigade is beginning to sound like a real option.

Posted by: Lincolntf at March 03, 2014 06:59 AM (ZshNr)

231 I wish Kerry would shut up rather than remove all doubt. Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 10:58 AM (sOtz/) To late

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 06:59 AM (t3UFN)

232 The simple fact of the matter is that the Obama foreign policy is an all out incoherent disaster....

"Incoherent Disaster" pretty well sums up Duh!1's "preznincy." The fool is a clown. At best.

Posted by: backhoe at March 03, 2014 06:59 AM (ULH4o)

233 @200 There is simply no way a few minor events in a little country cold get us involved in a World War, we've evolved past that. Oh really? I guess I should have stayed out of Bosnia.

Posted by: Archduke Franz Ferdinand at March 03, 2014 06:59 AM (0FSuD)

234 obama will handle it. obama has taken care of every crisis so far. obama took care of Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, the NSA spying, and now obama is taking care of the Ukraine. Why do I think obama took care of all the other crises? Because those stories arentin the news anymore!

Posted by: a Low Info Dumb Voter at March 03, 2014 07:00 AM (MLwNA)

235 Bibi is not meeting Barry until this afternoon. He'll probably keep Bibi waiting.

Posted by: Judge Pug at March 03, 2014 07:00 AM (6Nj7A)

236 if ukraine is smart they will cede the crimean and be done with vlad before they lose everything. sorry guys, no cavalry for you. you are better off with a small free country than a big russian province.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:00 AM (rDidD)

237 The only thing I don't understand is why someone in Asia has not made an overtly agressive move yet?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:00 AM (t3UFN)

238 Good to see that my fellow Morons/ettes pegged this early.

Posted by: baldilocks filipova at March 03, 2014 07:02 AM (36Rjy)

239 Jim Geraghty made a good point (sidebar) : "We have a White House full of officials who think they can spin a Russian invasion. It's as if they think they can alter reality with their minds.... he Obama administration came into power oblivious to some hard lessons of foreign policy, and has proven strikingly resistant to those lessons"

Posted by: MTF at March 03, 2014 07:02 AM (F58x4)

240 What are the next logical Russian-speaking contiguous chunks of nations Putin will chop off next? Did they leave any Russians in Alaska?

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 07:02 AM (sOtz/)

241
Start with the fact that nobody threatened their port access.
Posted by: Marcus T




Did you know know Kuwait was historically part of Iraq? And like the Kuwaitis are like rich and stuff, so they deserved what happened to them.

Also, Ho Chi Minh was like tots just a freedom fighter. And like Castro, him  too.


Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at March 03, 2014 07:03 AM (kdS6q)

242
Barry the Brave: I did a photo op this weekend. I looked so manly on the phone. What more do you people want me to do?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 03, 2014 07:03 AM (1Jaio)

243 Once a dictator sees you will flinch, then Katey bar the door. Hitler's "peace in our time", lead immediately to Polish invasion. Think Crimea, next Georgia, next helping our brothers in Venezuela. Then China takes the islands of Japan. You go Barry, you good ole community organizer.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 07:03 AM (0FSuD)

244 The only thing I don't understand is why someone in Asia has not made an overtly agressive move yet? Posted by: Nevergiveup well, going up against taiwan or japan is a little different than ukraine.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:03 AM (rDidD)

245 By the way the answer to Apple telling people who do not agree with climate change to not buy their stock is to buy alot of it and confront the bastards at every meeting. Hey it's a good stock anyway.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:03 AM (t3UFN)

246 if ukraine is smart they will cede the crimean and be done with vlad before they lose everything. sorry guys, no cavalry for you. you are better off with a small free country than a big russian province. Posted by: yankeefifth too late I read there are more unidentified military personnel without insignia forming around Kiev that is not in Crimea Ukraine is done its occupied. Watch for difficult people to be "disappeared"

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:04 AM (zOTsN)

247 225 The only thing I don't understand is why someone in Asia has not made an overtly agressive move yet? Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 11:00 AM (t3UFN) North Korea fired off some missiles yesterday.

Posted by: Tami [/i][/b][/u][/s] at March 03, 2014 07:04 AM (bCEmE)

248 "You just don't, in the 21st century, behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext," Kerry told the CBS program "Face the Nation".



"Oh you don't?     Gosh, Horseface, I'm sorry.  I'll just go ahead and head back home- PSYCH!"


-Vlad


This    view by Horseface, btw, is completely in holding with Obammy's    belief     that     the American military doesn't have bayonets anymore or something, because    old.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 07:04 AM (4df7R)

249

What Dear Leader isn't aware of is that the people of Ukraine will fight the Russians, win or lose.  The SCOAMT regime thinks they'll just roll over and be taken over by Putin's regime.  The last two weeks should  have put an end to that premise.

 

We should quit trying to correlate the Ukrainian mindset to the American one.  Ukrainians will fight  to the death and sacrifice  for their freedom.

Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 07:04 AM (xMLV7)

250 Geez, I thought the sarc was tres évident.

Posted by: Hrothgar at March 03, 2014 07:04 AM (o3MSL)

251 Apple is only for faggots.

Posted by: Boss Moss at March 03, 2014 07:04 AM (bitz6)

252
Neville Obama: The international community will not stand for this! We'll...ummm...uhhh..is it time for my March Madness picks yet?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 03, 2014 07:05 AM (1Jaio)

253 maybe obama has a chance to fly over to moscow and snub vlad in a photo to teach him who is boss.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:05 AM (rDidD)

254 Posted by: Ignoramus at March 03, 2014 10:00 AM (EPEqj)


If Germany were to adopt the same energy policy as France, it would have a major effect on Russia.  In fact, they could just contract with Electricitie d'France to build nuclear reactors in Poland along the German border in order to circumvent the German Greens and then get their electricity that way.

Posted by: Obnoxious A-hole at March 03, 2014 07:05 AM (PD6iL)

255 well, going up against taiwan or japan is a little different than ukraine. Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 11:03 AM (rDidD) Without American support? And we are not talking a full out invasion, but probes here and there to test our resolve, as if our resolve under obama is a secret. All them outlying Islands of Japan that China has always coveted?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:06 AM (t3UFN)

256 The question isn't whether Obama's going to betray and abandon Ukraine, the question is only when and how badly. What a contemptible shit we have as President. And what a bunch of contemptible shits voted for him and continue to praise and support him.

Posted by: Trimegistus at March 03, 2014 07:06 AM (Zp8Kp)

257 Well, if we're not going to protect them, we should give them their nukes back. :^)

Posted by: sherlockzz at March 03, 2014 07:06 AM (EZi5p)

258 The only thing I don't understand is why someone in Asia has not made an overtly agressive move yet?


Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 11:00 AM (t3UFN)




   China's been ginning up its nationalistic fervor for the last year or so, and NoKo has started firing it's missiles again.  Right now they're all just waiting for Russia to give the go-ahead, then it'll be a free-for-all.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 07:06 AM (4df7R)

259 neville obama, obama did not even get the paper.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:06 AM (rDidD)

260
"There is simply no way a few minor events in a little country could get us involved in a World War, we've evolved past that."




"Mr. Archduke, you can't say Sarajevo doesn't love you!"

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at March 03, 2014 07:06 AM (kdS6q)

261 You want some DOOM? Here's some DOOM. The Russkies have wanted a warm water port for centuries. (And I believe that is a reason Europe blundered into WWI.) The Crimean ports really don't qualify unless Russia also controls the Dardenelles. If Russia senses weakness and decides now is the time to strike then Turkey is in the mix. The book The Islamic Antichrist makes a pretty convincing argument that the Antichrist arises in Turkey. And then you have the end of the world. I don't know what part global warming plays.

Posted by: WalrusRex at March 03, 2014 07:06 AM (qvdlx)

262 But, suppose he saw the pattern of _what_ they were looking at and knew they'd never see him? To be honest, it's not exactly a secret Obama's spending more energy spying on and containing America than he is elsewhere...

Posted by: Brother Cavil, future overlord of the winter wastes at March 03, 2014 07:06 AM (naUcP)

263 I do think "ObamaÂ’s weakness...emboldened Putin." Your opening assumes that anyone else would have been caught as flat-footed as Obama on all of these. But other people saw these things coming, and prior to occupation there were a lot more options than when you react after the fact. Maybe the ending would be the same on some or most of these, but they wouldn't all have to look like sheer ineptitude and weakness.

Posted by: morganm at March 03, 2014 07:07 AM (nvexF)

264 Putin isn't going to hand Sevastapol back over to the Ukraine any more than we're going to hand San Diego back to Mexico Well, officially anyway

Posted by: kbdabear at March 03, 2014 07:07 AM (aTXUx)

265 Ahhh, the Obama years. When the debt grew and the free world shrank.

Posted by: Lincolntf at March 03, 2014 07:07 AM (ZshNr)

266 The only thing obama and his fellow travelers is discussing now is how they can spin this to help them in the 2014 elections and fund raising

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:08 AM (t3UFN)

267 Putin is not gonna stop at Crimea. He is gonna take everything east of the Dnieper River, at least.

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:08 AM (zOTsN)

268 History. Idiocy. War. Repeat.

Posted by: troyriser at March 03, 2014 07:08 AM (gNlvW)

269 The Ukraine was lost when they believed in Bill Clinton, and surrendered their nukes to Yeltsin.

Their is a lesson here: If Russia is your neighbor, you need a nuclear deterrent.

India learned a similar lesson from China.

If Poland and Finland do not start making nukes, they are screwed.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:08 AM (c6N69)

270 And we are not talking a full out invasion, but probes here and there to test our resolve, as if our resolve under obama is a secret. All them outlying Islands of Japan that China has always coveted? Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 11:06 AM (t3UFN) didn't we already have China probing those islands late last year? and who (Iran) off our territorial waters a few weeks ago? probing all around or did i mistake it?

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 07:08 AM (nqBYe)

271 Hey, cut it out with the negative vibes man. Don't you know a Black Dude won the Oscars? I was shocked. Now racism is over, no doubt.

Posted by: Nip Sip at March 03, 2014 07:08 AM (0FSuD)

272 If Poland and Finland do not start making nukes, they are screwed. Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 11:08 AM (c6N69) Tell us about it.

Posted by: The Saudi's at March 03, 2014 07:09 AM (0FSuD)

273 didn't we already have China probing those islands late last year? and who (Iran) off our territorial waters a few weeks ago? probing all around or did i mistake it? Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 11:08 AM (nqBYe) No you did not mistake it. And it is all related to obama's weakness and our defensive draw down. Weakness emboldens agressive behavior

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (t3UFN)

274 138 Oh, and President Romney would have done something even more substantive. He would have opened the Keystone XL pipeline, which is the one thing we can do that will devastate Putin.
=======
That, and fracking, and off-shore drilling and an end to the ban on exports.

Choke on your fucking oil for all we care, Putin.

Having oil is fine. Being able to sell it is another.

And, the built-in corruption of the Russian oil companies guarantees they will never be able to sell as cheap as we can.

Posted by: RoyalOil at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (VjL9S)

275 Without American support? And we are not talking a full out invasion, but probes here and there to test our resolve, as if our resolve under obama is a secret. All them outlying Islands of Japan that China has always coveted? Posted by: Nevergiveup well, it is a depends thing. how long is it gonna go? is china gonna threaten nukes? my understanding is japan is smaller but more capable. our commitments to japan are as strong as anywhere else. russias move increases the likelihood we would support japan .

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (rDidD)

276 putin; just georgia nothing more obama, ok just georgia. putin; just crimea, nothing more obama, ok just crimea. putin, just poland , nothing more obama, could you quit saying this out loud!

Posted by: willow at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (nqBYe)

277 If BushÂ’s decisive, unilateral, cowboy persona didn't lead Putin to lay low
***
That stereotype was inaccurate and only believe by the American/European left.

Putin knew that by 2008 Bush wasn't going to do squat about Georgia, especially with a Democrat congress.

The world had seen Iran, for example, commit acts of war against American personnel in Iraq for a couple of years.

Bush 43 was slightly less interventionist then Obama, and by American standards a moderate on the foreign involvement.

Now a president McCain might have made Putin think...but no way would congress let the president go to war with Russia.

Posted by: 18-1 at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (P3U0f)

278 I don't know what part global warming plays.

Posted by: WalrusRex at March 03, 2014 11:06 AM (qvdlx)



It makes the water in the warm water ports even WARMER.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (4df7R)

279 Nood

Posted by: Tami [/i][/b][/u][/s] at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (bCEmE)

280 @221 Archduke Franz Ferdinand Going into the Balkans was the real Russian reset with the US in the 90s, like we bad touched their little brother. Another history stutter.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (sOtz/)

281

Been waiting for a different topic to pop up here...

 

Serious question:  if there's nothing to be done,  or  there's no chance of anything you could think of to be done  getting done,  is there any point talking about it? 

 

This happens to me all the time, I get sucked into thinking I have to formulate  an informed opinion about something, until it occurs to me that it  really  DOESN'T  make any difference what I think.  

Posted by: BurtTC at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (TOk1P)

282 The Russians are a bunch of fucking thugs and have been since they pillaged their way to the center of Asia.  They couldn't be happy selling gas to Europe at natural monopoly prices and getting rich.

Posted by: DaveA[/i][/b][/s] at March 03, 2014 07:10 AM (DL2i+)

283

Hitler was not elected, but he was legitimately appointed Chancellor.

The was no coup or revolution like we say in Ukraine

 

 

Is it just me, or do you smell smoke?

Posted by: The Reichstag at March 03, 2014 07:11 AM (A0sHn)

284 Right then ... Iran probes and Obama ignores.

Apparently that retard has no idea what else can be put into a speedboat besides jihaddis:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Atomic_Demolition_Munition



Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:11 AM (c6N69)

285 If Russia & China team up as the new Axis, they have a good chance of winning WW III. And they know it. What's holding them back is mutual distrust.

Posted by: votermom at March 03, 2014 07:11 AM (GSIDW)

286 Hey, all will end well with John Fucking Kerry, who served in Viet Nam. Hey Bibi, if you want to protect Israel, stay away from this circus.

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at March 03, 2014 07:11 AM (HVff2)

287 "We'll likely never see a President this weak and foolish for another hundred years.

And those of you who claim we have no interest in any of this are badly, sadly mistaken. We've seen that movie before, too.

Posted by: troyriser at March 03, 2014 10:59 AM (gNlvW)"



Obama was elected only seven years after 9/11/2001.  There will be plenty more like him. 



You do not live in the country you thought you grew up in.

Posted by: Obnoxious A-hole at March 03, 2014 07:12 AM (PD6iL)

288 If Russia senses weakness and decides now is the time to strike then Turkey is in the mix. Turkey would fight tooth and nail. It would probably be too far.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at March 03, 2014 07:12 AM (iy7de)

289 If Poland and Finland do not start making nukes, they are screwed.
***
I would expect that Obama's lasting foreign policy impact is to persuade a large number of countries to join the nuclear club.

I also wonder if we will see regional powers like Japan, India, and Germany start re militarizing?

Posted by: 18-1 at March 03, 2014 07:12 AM (P3U0f)

290 @260 The Saudis The package is on its way.

Posted by: China and Pakistan at March 03, 2014 07:13 AM (sOtz/)

291 This happens to me all the time, I get sucked into thinking I have to formulate an informed opinion about something, until it occurs to me that it really DOESN'T make any difference what I think.

Posted by: BurtTC at March 03, 2014 11:10 AM (TOk1P)

 

What we think and say and write matters. Speaking truth and countering lies always matters.

Posted by: troyriser at March 03, 2014 07:13 AM (gNlvW)

292 Turkey would fight tooth and nail. It would probably be too far.
***
I wonder if that would trigger both a jihad and a truce between "moderate Islam" and the salafists?

Posted by: 18-1 at March 03, 2014 07:13 AM (P3U0f)

293 well the thing is if vlad is gonna take crimea it is not entirely unreasonable - it was part of russia before the revolution. if he goes for something in the ukraine as it is delineated historically he is probably gona go whole hog because sooner or later, when the shooting is finished, the ukranians will shut off his pipelines.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:13 AM (rDidD)

294 Thank you for this well written and honest piece. We have to figure where the real red lines are and be prepared to defend those to the max. Those readline for America should be Poland, the Baltic states, etc. The same goes for Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, the first island chain in the Pacific. It is NOT Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iraq, and other places that we have little interest in, and have not built up the trust needed to have a good alliance. That does not mean we can't influence those areas and use our economic, political and even occasionally our military might in those places, but we cannot risk overplaying our hands in those places at the expense of places that do really matter. Afghanistan is a good example of that. It would have been ok to do a military expedition there after 9-11 with the goal of retribution, but it needed to be time limited and it should not have involved nation building. Iraq was an even bigger waste of time and money. We tried to turn a Muslim majority nation into a western democracy, a country that only came into existence because some British and French dudes drew its borders on a chalk board after WWI. Not exactly inspiring if our goal was to keep Iraq unified as a country. And to top all that off, we failed to realize that the largest group of Iraqis were Shia Muslims, who ideologically identify with Iran. Iraq can at least be excused due to oil, but now that excuse is dead due to fracking and the energy boom we now have in America. We don't need the Middle East anymore, and we certainly don't need their religion or anything else they might have to offer.

Posted by: Willian Eaton at March 03, 2014 07:14 AM (rLRIj)

295 a china russia axis is never gonna happen.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:14 AM (rDidD)

296 The Crimea is just a symbol for Russia. Yes it's a warm water port and yes that is important but none of Russia's really important ships and boats are stationed there. So the Dardinelles and Turkey are not really the issue.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:15 AM (t3UFN)

297 But there are limits to how far he can push us and we need to make it clear to him what they areÂ…NATO aligned countries like the Baltic nations, Poland and The Czech Republic.
***
Presuming that Putin is more subtle then just crossing the border with tanks one day I would expect to see Obama do *nothing* if Russia invades unless Germany draws its own redline.

Posted by: 18-1 at March 03, 2014 07:16 AM (P3U0f)

298 I think many are making the same error in comparing this to WWII as the left was comparing Iraq to Vietnam. If it was then we would have already had WWIII and WWIV in 1956 and 1969.

Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 07:16 AM (zFzxj)

299 Nuclear non-proliferation is dead. It depended on the US being willing and able to support and defend small non-nuclear powers. That ain't gonna happen any more, not with Obama gutting our military and following a "please not in my eyes again" foreign policy toward aggressors. Japan and South Korea are probably getting their nukes assembled right now. Poland and Hungary will likely work together on them, with help from France and a consenting wink from Germany. Saudi Arabia's probably bought some from Pakistan already, and of course Iran's program is going full steam ahead no matter what Obama thinks. How long before some of them "accidentally" fall into the hands of "rogue elements"? How long before lower Manhattan is a radioactive crater? How long before someone calls someone else's bluff and two nuclear-armed states decide to throw down? I'd like to personally thank every liberal shit who voted for Obama. The millions dead we're going to see in the next decade are YOUR FUCKING FAULT. Not Romney, not the Koch Brothers, not the Tea Party. YOU stupid motherfuckers are responsible.

Posted by: Trimegistus at March 03, 2014 07:16 AM (Zp8Kp)

300 If Russia & China team up as the new Axis, they have a good chance of winning WW III. And they know it.
What's holding them back is mutual distrust.

Posted by: votermom at March 03, 2014 11:11 AM (GSIDW)

 

That's always the problem with criminals, whether a gang of shoplifters or shady heads of state. They're incapable of trust or being trusted. It's one of our few advantages.

Posted by: troyriser at March 03, 2014 07:17 AM (gNlvW)

301 When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the White House tomorrow, President Barack Obama will tell him that his country could face a bleak future -- one of international isolation and demographic disaster -- if he refuses to endorse a U.S.-drafted framework agreement for peace with the Palestinians.





So Vlad is kicking sand in Barry's face and Barry is going to threaten Israel. Brilliant

Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 03, 2014 07:17 AM (1Jaio)

302 Drew, could you please sent a copy of this post to the guys on Wall Street.  Dow Jones is tanking...hard. 

Posted by: IrishEi at March 03, 2014 07:18 AM (LzpIM)

303 I'd like to personally thank every liberal shit who voted for Obama. The millions dead we're going to see in the next decade are YOUR FUCKING FAULT. Not Romney, not the Koch Brothers, not the Tea Party. YOU stupid motherfuckers are responsible. Posted by: Trimegistus at March 03, 2014 11:16 AM (Zp8Kp) Exactly

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:18 AM (t3UFN)

304 Russia also wants ports in our hemisphere. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday the military was engaged in talks with Cuba (hello Miami!), Venezuela (more Oil!!), Algeria (African oil!), Cyprus (I'm looking at you Turkey!), the Seychelles, Vietnam and Singapore

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:18 AM (zOTsN)

305 Do we give The Ukraine their nukes back? And do we need 17 foreign intelligence agencies?

Posted by: Goatweed at March 03, 2014 07:18 AM (8HrdX)

306 Afghanistan is a good example of that. It would have been ok to do a military expedition there after 9-11 with the goal of retribution,
***
Considering how quickly the media turned on the American military there what do you think the news coverage really would have been like had we actually engaged in a punitive campaign - intentionally destroying infrastructure, population centers, etc...?

Of course if we did engage in a true punitive action at any point it would raise our standing in "the world community" substantially.

It is one thing to attack the US when you know the worst case scenario is that they will just come in and rebuild whatever they destroy and another when you fear we will treat you like Japan in WWII...

Posted by: 18-1 at March 03, 2014 07:18 AM (P3U0f)

307 Afghanistan is a good example of that. It would have been ok to do a military expedition there after 9-11 with the goal of retribution, but it needed to be time limited and it should not have involved nation building. Afghanistan was about destroying a terrorist haven. The trouble is the whole damn middle east is a terrorist haven now - Al Qaeda has Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Iraq to kick around in.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at March 03, 2014 07:19 AM (tmzN0)

308 TheQuietMan:

Only good thing here is that Princess Barry's threats probably amuse the Israelis as much as they amuse the Russians.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:19 AM (c6N69)

309 Afghanistan was about destroying a terrorist haven. The trouble is the whole damn middle east is a terrorist haven now - Al Qaeda has Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Iraq to kick around in. Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at March 03, 2014 11:19 AM (tmzN0) hum? someone might come to the conclusion it has something to do with ISLAM!

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:20 AM (t3UFN)

310 >>The Crimean ports really don't qualify unless Russia also controls the Dardenelles. << That's true. I think Turkey is going to be in play sooner rather than later. Russian outreach to the Kurds in T minus...

Posted by: General Zod at March 03, 2014 07:20 AM (2+bRt)

311 I think many are making the same error in comparing this to WWII as the left was comparing Iraq to Vietnam. If it was then we would have already had WWIII and WWIV in 1956 and 1969.

Posted by: Consistency at March 03, 2014 11:16 AM (zFzxj)

 

China and Russia are great powers, both equipped with nukes and possessed of vast, modern armies and navies. Vietnam and Iraq are/were not.

 

We'll see how things play out soon enough, I guess. Things seem to be moving along fairly quickly.

Posted by: troyriser at March 03, 2014 07:20 AM (gNlvW)

312 yeah well, I guess we are done in afghanistan.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:20 AM (rDidD)

313 Only good thing here is that Princess Barry's threats probably amuse the Israelis as much as they amuse the Russians. Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 11:19 AM (c6N69) Except obama is a nasty little prick bastard who is vindictive and he has the capability to hurt Israel

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:21 AM (t3UFN)

314 Goatweed:

The Russians have those nukes now. The only way they will give them back to the Ukrainians is on the tip of a launched IRBM.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:21 AM (c6N69)

315 How long before lower Manhattan is a radioactive crater?
***
When that happens (not if) I suggest we air drop in a giant statue of Obama so people will remember...

Then again Bill Clinton's incompetence gave us Bin Laden and he is currently about the most popular democrat in America...

Posted by: 18-1 at March 03, 2014 07:21 AM (P3U0f)

316 China and Russia are great powers, both equipped with nukes and possessed of vast, modernarmies and navies. Vietnam and Iraq are/were not. We'll see how things play out soon enough, I guess. Things seem to be moving along fairly quickly. Posted by: troyri aside from nukes, not a lot of power projection capability.

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:21 AM (rDidD)

317 I blame all this on the British and French for not allowing Russia to take back Constantinople from the Turks in the Crimea War. Today Russia would have been battling Muslims throughout the Middle East to hold on to their "holy city" and Americans could sit back and watch the fun.

Posted by: Willian Eaton at March 03, 2014 07:22 AM (rLRIj)

318 Nevergiveup:

I'm not sure Barry can accomplish this. If the Israelis threaten him back, he'll fold up like a wet paper bag. I mean, exactly what the fuck can he do to them?

At most, he can withhold what little aid money they are still sending.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:23 AM (c6N69)

319 And do we need 17 foreign intelligence agencies?
___
If you don't want us to reveal your browser history and your recent credit card purchases you do...what would the voters back home think if something like that feel into the hands of a reporter or ten?

Posted by: Someone in one of those 17 agencies at March 03, 2014 07:23 AM (P3U0f)

320 I'm not sure Barry can accomplish this. If the Israelis threaten him back, he'll fold up like a wet paper bag. I mean, exactly what the fuck can he do to them? At most, he can withhold what little aid money they are still sending. Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 he is looking for an excuse to nuke 'em

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:24 AM (rDidD)

321 Then again Bill Clinton's incompetence gave us Bin Laden and he is currently about the most popular democrat in America...


Posted by: 18-1 at March 03, 2014 11:21 AM (P3U0f)



The left loves rapists. 

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 03, 2014 07:24 AM (4df7R)

322 "249 You want some DOOM? Here's some DOOM. The Russkies have wanted a warm water port for centuries. (And I believe that is a reason Europe blundered into WWI.) The Crimean ports really don't qualify unless Russia also controls the Dardenelles. If Russia senses weakness and decides now is the time to strike then Turkey is in the mix. The book The Islamic Antichrist makes a pretty convincing argument that the Antichrist arises in Turkey. And then you have the end of the world.

I don't know what part global warming plays.

Posted by: WalrusRex at March 03, 2014 11:06 AM (qvdlx)"



A few years before 1914, the Austrian and Russian foreign ministries agreed to support each other in pressuring to add some former Turkish possessions to the Austro-Hungarian Empire and to allow Russian war ships free transit of the Dardanelles and Bosphorus.  The Austrians got what they wanted but then they reneged on their deal with the Russians.  When the Austrian foreign minister was asked if Austria would seem ungrateful, he replied, "We will astonish the world with our ungratefulness."  The bad feelings remaining from that encounter were largely responsible for why Russia mobilized its army in response to Austria invading Serbia.

Posted by: Obnoxious A-hole at March 03, 2014 07:25 AM (PD6iL)

323 Russia is demanding surrender in Crimea and the new Ukranian govt is saying no. So there's that. Best case the Ukranians keep a rump state of the western half. If they go to war they could lose that too.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 07:25 AM (sOtz/)

324 I'm not sure Barry can accomplish this. If the Israelis threaten him back, he'll fold up like a wet paper bag. I mean, exactly what the fuck can he do to them? At most, he can withhold what little aid money they are still sending. Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 11:23 AM (c6N69) Wow you can't be serious? He can allow the Security Council to really hurt Israel and it's economy And for better or worse, The USA is still the main supplier of weapons and parts to Israel that is vital to it's defense, not the least of which is the missile early warning system the US Controls that sits in the Negev Desert.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:25 AM (t3UFN)

325 283 a china russia axis is never gonna happen. Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 11:14 AM (rDidD) -- Thank goodness for the decades of animosity.

Posted by: votermom at March 03, 2014 07:26 AM (GSIDW)

326 19 I think the difference is that Romney would have been working on this since January 2013, not waking up WITH A HANGOVER FROM HAPPY HOUR to it in February of 2014 Posted by: Vashta Nerada at March 03, 2014 10:02 AM (sBUAE) FIFY Also, as other have said Bush was a neutered, lame duck with no support from anywhere by 2008. He couldn't have made a move if Putin raped Georgian women with a nuke while screaming, "Death to America". Why? Because Obama and the MFM would have watched it happen and called for restraint, understanding, talks without preconditions, and blamed Putin's actions on Bush the Cowboy.... just like they actually did.

Posted by: Damiano at March 03, 2014 07:26 AM (j0wOO)

327 The Left hates punitive campaigns, but such campaigns are usually over so quickly the Left can't work up a good negative PR campaign before it's over -- at which point public attention shifts to the next TMZ crotch shot or drug death. Any long American military campaign now has to assume it will face a powerful, coordinated, antagonistic information war at home conducted by the best propaganda people on the planet -- Hollywood and the Leftist Media. And odds are that campaign will successfully poison public opinion against any military campaign. Even more incentive for short, sharp wars and not long campaigns. When possible.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 03, 2014 07:26 AM (ZPrif)

328 Bevel:

If the war after 9-11 was about destroying terrorist havens, then we should have responded to the 9-11 attack by wardeccing SA, Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and then nuking them into glass 24 hours later.

War ends, Bush has a Triumph in DC, and we go back to squabbling amongst ourselves.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:26 AM (c6N69)

329 I think Dear Leader wants  this Ukraine conflict to expand and continue.  It keeps everyone focused on what's happening there instead of what's happening here.  Don't see much news on Ocare lately.

Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 07:26 AM (xMLV7)

330 Russia is demanding surrender in Crimea and the new Ukranian govt is saying no. So there's that. Best case the Ukranians keep a rump state of the western half. If they go to war they could lose that too.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 11:25 AM (sOtz/)

 

I can't fault the Ukrainians for wanting to make a fight of it. Better to go out standing rather than kneeling.

Posted by: troyriser at March 03, 2014 07:27 AM (gNlvW)

331 a china russia axis is never gonna happen. Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 11:14 AM (rDidD) -- Thank goodness for the decades of animosity. Posted by: votermom at March 03, 2014 11:26 AM (GSIDW) ??? If our best hope is that our enemies hate each other more than they hate us we are truly fucked

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:27 AM (t3UFN)

332 Turkey is enjoying huge investment from China. They do not trust the Russians and never will. Because Turkey is cozy with China it will not be bothered by Russia. Nobody gives a shit about NATO anymore

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:27 AM (zOTsN)

333 Thank goodness for the decades of animosity. Posted by: votermom at March 03, 2014 obama will get 'em couples counseling, send 'em to dr phil

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:28 AM (rDidD)

334 yankeefifth: The military would mutiny, and the cabinet would have to quietly take control away from him, like they did to Clinton near the end of his last term.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:28 AM (c6N69)

335 One wonders where to start in discussing this, books have been written about many of Drew's paragraphs above. Ukraine is a major trading partner of Russia and has a per capita of $3,400 a year. That indiates the trading commodities are food and right of ways for export of Russian goods. I'm reading that Europe is getting all wee-weed up about the situation, which can only mean one thing. A dreaded reprimand from the UN may be on the way. The only problem is that the UN's enforcement arm, the USA, is out of the enforcement business. Europe's caterwauling as Putin goes about his business will be epic and fruitless. Putin can now ask the same famous question about the Pope, Obama and Europe. "How many divisions do they have?" None that will be reporting for duty, Mr. Putin.

Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 07:28 AM (1Y+hH)

336 @318 Not faulting, just observing with increasing alarm.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 07:29 AM (sOtz/)

337 Israel is very vulnerable. Many, many countries want to hurt it. It's mainly US leadership that has, so far, blocked the UN and Europe from giving it the South Africa apartheid pariah state treatment.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 03, 2014 07:29 AM (ZPrif)

338 I can't fault the Ukrainians for wanting to make a fight of it. Better to go out standing rather than kneeling. Posted by: troyriser at March 03, 2014 11:27 AM (gNlvW) They have no real Military. Russia would wipe them off the face of the earth in a week and they know that. Ultimately, after making some noise, the Ukrainians will give into what ever Putin wants

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:29 AM (t3UFN)

339 As for financial penalties, do you think that the EU is going to risk having their fuel supply cut off? I seriously doubt it. Putin has played his cards well. Unless Kerry, the accidental diplomat,finds a solution, then obama is going under the hooves of the half hun Russian warlord.

Posted by: Jay352 at March 03, 2014 07:30 AM (YWCa+)

340 Nevergiveup:

Israel only needs one partner with a UN veto. I can see them jumping into the Russian camp if they have to.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:31 AM (c6N69)

341 financial penalties are a joke

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:31 AM (zOTsN)

342 If our best hope is that our enemies hate each other more than they hate us we are truly fucked Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 11:27 AM (t3UFN) -- That's where we're at.

Posted by: votermom at March 03, 2014 07:31 AM (GSIDW)

343 Russians are very allied with arabs they will never support Israel. never

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:32 AM (zOTsN)

344 They have no real Military. Russia would wipe them off the face of the earth in a week and they know that. Ultimately, after making some noise, the Ukrainians will give into what ever Putin wants Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 11:29 AM (t3UFN) And I might add there is nothing we can do to stop that right now. But what we can do is realize there is a New Cold War ( not that the old one really ever ended) and move Missile shields and other things that piss off the Russians into surrounding States like Poland and also start turning the financial screws on Russia. But all that would take balls in the White House and scraping the rape of the Pentagon

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:33 AM (t3UFN)

345 The Russians play a tougher game than we do.

I can see them quietly vetoing UN sanctions while playing friend to their barbarian auxiliaries in the Mideast.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:34 AM (c6N69)

346 You are correct. Russia would use force to control the Ukraine regardless of who was president. But I don't think this is the reality that Americans are holding Obama accountable for at this time. At least that is not my issue. My issue is that Obama has moved away from our allies and every pro-American strategic partner. He has abandoned all those souls that risked their lives to support America's strategy in tumultuous areas. Who in their right mind would want to support or defend on America's side against the use of force. No, we have actually aided our enemies. Carter was inept and a foreign policy joke, but Obama is worse as he not only is inept at foreign policy, but he is actively aided our enemies while destroying America's ability to project power through our military, or our allies. You say Putin is not crazy enough to risk attacking Poland etc. What about China and the South seas? What about Taiwan? What about Japanese territories? When you approach the world as Chamberlain bad things happen, but Obama is not simply Chamberlain, he is chamberlain giving arms to Nazis while telling France they will not be defended if they don't seek peace. This is only the foreign policy problems with Obama, when you couple this to the destruction of domestic issues you are DOOMED.

Posted by: Mekan at March 03, 2014 07:34 AM (zG16+)

347 Russians are very allied with arabs they will never support Israel. never Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 11:32 AM (zOTsN) Yup. They have nothing what so ever to gain by supporting Israel. But Israel has made it clear that any fatal attack on Israel will result in a nuclear barrage on southern Russia.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:35 AM (t3UFN)

348 Early in Bush's presidency, Putin knew he would face an armed and angry response from America, but by 2008, there was no risk of that. The political mood of the country had shifted so totally against any kind of strength being used that Putin knew he could take any action he wanted with almost no chance of any sort of response.
With President Obama in office, Putin knew he could act any time he wanted, but didn't need to until he saw that the Ukraine was sliding out of his grasp.
But here's the thing: neither side wants a war, it goes both ways. If we started building up ships and troops in the area and making warlike noises, Putin would back off. We just won't ever.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 03, 2014 07:35 AM (zfY+H)

349 Suppose the U.S. had an energy policy.

Suppose export of natural gas was part of that.

Suppose we had massive LNG plants to ship LNG by brazillions of  cubic feet of the stuff to Europe.

Now deduce what leverage Russian natural gas exports to Europe might be. Regardless of cost differences, if any, Europe would have a choice of supply, whereas now, they have none.

If only ten years ago....

It  is always, "It'll take ten years to develop the technology to do that (whatever IT is).



Posted by: Hammersmith Police at March 03, 2014 07:36 AM (vO+By)

350 Well, we'll see what happens.

Hopefully Princess Barry won't be able to completely cheese of the Israelis and force them to jump ship ... but I can imagine any agents of influence Putin has in Obama's whitehouse ARE pushing this.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:37 AM (c6N69)

351 I believe our Dear Leader is actually not bothered by this. Why would he wish a country such as the Ukraine to remain a freely independent country when it can be annexed and ruled by the Russians who certainly, through their state programs, are providing a much better standard of living to their citizens than those countries whose capitalistic ideas lead to 1%. That gay problem is a bit of a sticky widget, but overall, Barack loves them communist ideas and plans. I imagine the White House baker is putting the final touches on a monumental cake to celebrate Barry's hard work the past six years destroying what credibility this country had, along with it's economy, soveriegnty, culture, rule of law, Constitution, etc.All of that is fitting retribution for what a piece of crap country this is. Now, he has gotten us out of the way so that real progress can occur in the world.

Posted by: Jen at March 03, 2014 07:38 AM (XkXzn)

352 "...move Missile shields and other things that piss off the Russians into surrounding States like Poland and also start turning the financial screws on Russia." The first will not happen and the second, if done, will be ineffective as it won't be done to an extent that will hurt, only to the extent of making a show. Putin is a rather angry bull running loose and there is no one to step up against him. The world's responsibility corps has abdicated.

Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 07:38 AM (1Y+hH)

353 The Russians play a tougher game than we do. I can see them quietly vetoing UN sanctions while playing friend to their barbarian auxiliaries in the Mideast. Posted by: Kristophr that is totally incorrect. It would solve some issue for Russia if Israel ceased to exist. There is nothing in Russia's interest to support Israel. Nothing

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:38 AM (zOTsN)

354 Jen:

By "real progress", you mean a descent into utter barbarism.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:39 AM (c6N69)

355 They have no real Military. Russia would wipe them off the face of the earth in a week and they know that. Ultimately, after making some noise, the Ukrainians will give into what ever Putin wants

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 11:29 AM (t3UFN)

 

 

---------------------------------------------

 

 

I don't believe that.   The Ukrainians know their army cannot stand against the Russian army, but they do know the Russians are weak when it comes to  disruptive warfare.  They  (the Russians)  do not do guerilla warfare well. 

Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 07:39 AM (xMLV7)

356 185 A few things for you to consider Drew: It was obama that shit canned the Missile Shield that President Bush negotiated for Poland and the Check Republic. It was obama that told the Russia he'd have more flexiability after the election. It is obama that is gutting the Defense Budget Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 10:53 AM (t3UFN) This also.

Posted by: baldilocks filipova at March 03, 2014 07:40 AM (36Rjy)

357 "306 Nevergiveup:

I'm not sure Barry can accomplish this. If the Israelis threaten him back, he'll fold up like a wet paper bag. I mean, exactly what the fuck can he do to them?

At most, he can withhold what little aid money they are still sending.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 11:23 AM (c6N69)"



It was my understanding that the US was still giving a couple of billion dollars of military aid to Israel every year.  Admittedly, a couple of billion is not as it was back when the Camp David Accord was signed and it is as much as a subsidy to the US arms industry as any thing else but still, I assume that it forms a significant part of Israeli military thinking.



If Obama were to cut it off, the Israelis would have to come up with some other way to pay for the military organization that allows them to exist while surrounded by millions of angry fanatics who hate them and place a low value on their own lives, let alone the lives of others.



Golly, I wonder how much Israel could get per nuclear weapon if they were to start selling them?  What if Poland were to start fracking for natural gas in that large field they have and then use the money to buy nukes from Israel and India?  How many nukes could Romania afford?  How about Bulgaria?  How about Hungary?  How about the Czech Republic?  How about Slovakia?  Since Obama cancelled the deal to install an antimissile system in Poland and the Czech Republic, maybe they would like to buy one from Israel?

Posted by: Obnoxious A-hole at March 03, 2014 07:41 AM (PD6iL)

358 I detect whistling in the dark by millenialists here.

Welp, regardless, if you value Israel as an ally, Princess Barry will have to be curbed.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:41 AM (c6N69)

359 The first will not happen and the second, if done, will be ineffective as it won't be done to an extent that will hurt, only to the extent of making a show. Putin is a rather angry bull running loose and there is no one to step up against him. The world's responsibility corps has abdicated. Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 11:38 AM (1Y+hH) Your right it will not be done with these commie bastards in power here. But it should be done and it would be effective if done with the pedal to the metal. And throw in some subversion or outright aggression against Soviet Allies in South America or the Middle East it would be quite effective. Take the gloves off. But enough of my wet dreams for 3 years from now

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:42 AM (t3UFN)

360 The Russian military has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 5 a.m. Tuesday (10 p.m. ET Monday) to surrender or face a “storm,” Interfax news agency reported. “If they do not surrender by 5 a.m. tomorrow, we will start a real storm in Ukrainian bases in Crimea,” according to the statement sent by the Russians to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, a ministry source told Interfax. NBC News could not immediately confirm the report. The ultimatum was attributed to Alexandr Vitko, chief commander of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:42 AM (zOTsN)

361 When I read my PRIME RADIANT, i'm standing on a pier in Long Beach when Iranian nukes go off in 100 blue American counties. Bummer. The Russian do retake Hagia Sophia though.

Posted by: Goatweed at March 03, 2014 07:43 AM (8HrdX)

362 Hadn't considered that one, Obnoxious.

Yea, I think I know where those South African nukes ended up ... might turn up in Poland, you think?

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:43 AM (c6N69)

363 don't believe that. The Ukrainians know their army cannot stand against the Russian army, but they do know the Russians are weak when it comes to disruptive warfare. They(theRussians) do not do guerilla warfare well. Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 11:39 AM (xMLV7) Ukraine has old out of date aircraft and no significant armor. No matter how bad, by western standards, the Soviets are, they would wipe the floor with the Ukranians

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 07:43 AM (t3UFN)

364 Didn't Georgia launch the first strike in 2008 In an attempt to reclaim territory lost a couple of decades earlier? Or, had Putin been sneaking troops across the border prior to that?

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at March 03, 2014 07:43 AM (DmNpO)

365 Ukraine's military is weak, Yanik spent his security force money on police to quell internal threats, not on the military for external threats.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 03, 2014 07:44 AM (ZPrif)

366 Russia did to Georgia what it's been trying to do to Ukraine -- try to provoke them to shoot first to justify a protection force.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 03, 2014 07:45 AM (ZPrif)

367 Ukraine has old out of date aircraft and no significant armor. No matter how bad, by western standards, the Soviets are, they would wipe the floor with the Ukranians

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 03, 2014 11:43 AM (t3UFN)

 

 

-------------------------------------------

 

 

Just like they did in Afghanistan?

Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 07:46 AM (xMLV7)

368 Soona: That will be up to the Ukrainians.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:46 AM (c6N69)

369 "337 Suppose the U.S. had an energy policy.

Suppose export of natural gas was part of that.

Suppose we had massive LNG plants to ship LNG by brazillions of cubic feet of the stuff to Europe.

Now deduce what leverage Russian natural gas exports to Europe might be. Regardless of cost differences, if any, Europe would have a choice of supply, whereas now, they have none.

If only ten years ago....

It is always, "It'll take ten years to develop the technology to do that (whatever IT is).



Posted by: Hammersmith Police at March 03, 2014 11:36 AM (vO+By)"



It would not even take that.  What if Europeans were fracking for the the natural gas they have under their own feet?  Do you think that would make a difference?  It would certainly reduce the number of Euros flowing into Russia.

Posted by: Obnoxious A-hole at March 03, 2014 07:47 AM (PD6iL)

370 Wow, even geopolitical nature abhors a vacuum, who knew? Watch now the death of Smart Power. The Al Qaeda strategy has worked very well. Their intent was to draw us into nagging conflicts and make us tire of being the parents of the world. They have succeeded and we will see the fruits of their labor now.

Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 07:48 AM (1Y+hH)

371 But if the Russians thought terrorism by random Chechins was a problem, they will really reap the whirlwind if they start bombing Kiev like they did Grozny, and create a bunch of Ukrainian fanatics.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:48 AM (c6N69)

372 One problem we and NATO have is that a lot of our equipment is still sitting in Afghanistan and we want it back It can be brought back through Pakistani highways by truck or through Russia by rail Airlifts would be so prohibitively expensive that Obama would just leave it for the jihadists Putin knows all he has to do is say "sorry, my locomotives are in the shop right now waiting for backordered parts"

Posted by: kbdabear at March 03, 2014 07:49 AM (aTXUx)

373 @334 He's putting the screws to Bibi and Israel as if some unique serious conflict is there when Africa, the Middle East, and everywhere else is engulfed by Muslim insurgencies and Muslim sectarian war.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 07:49 AM (sOtz/)

374 Meremortal: Welp, Bush the Younger wouldn't strike at the root of AQ: Saudi Arabia.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:49 AM (c6N69)

375 so, who is responsible for splainin "geopolitical" to obama?

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 07:49 AM (rDidD)

376 Posted by: Kristophr Yes, I'm aware of that.

Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 07:50 AM (1Y+hH)

377 yankeefifth: I think that is Biden's job now.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 07:51 AM (c6N69)

378 Great post Drew M.

Posted by: Baldy at March 03, 2014 07:51 AM (2bql3)

379 354 Russia did to Georgia what it's been trying to do to Ukraine -- try to provoke them to shoot first to justify a protection force. .... From what I can tell, Putin's done no such thing in Ukraine. He hasn't waited for provocation.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at March 03, 2014 07:52 AM (DmNpO)

380

Foreign affairs is, well, foreign to Obama.  He has no background in this as all of his skills are those of the big city machine politician.  If he can't sic the building inspector on someone he's at a total loss.*

 

*Building inspector, IRS - it all comes from teh same political machine mentality.

Posted by: Mikey NTH - Sick of the Snowplow Bills for the Outrage Outlet - Bring Me The Head Of Al Gore! at March 03, 2014 07:54 AM (hLRSq)

381 Putin is going to move fast as he knows Obama and the UN will only talk. The next month will be instructive.

Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 07:54 AM (1Y+hH)

382 But if the Russians thought terrorism by random Chechins was a problem, they will really reap the whirlwind if they start bombing Kiev like they did Grozny, and create a bunch of Ukrainian fanatics.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 11:48 AM (c6N69)

 

 

------------------------------------------------

 

 

This is my point  from my comments upthread.  Russia isn't good at non-geometric (for want of a better expression) warfare.  All it would take is a few  devastating bombings in Moscow.   And think of all those gas and  oil piplines that run through the Ukraine.  I really do think the Ukrainians hold the high cards in this one. 

Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 07:55 AM (xMLV7)

383 He's putting the screws to Bibi and Israel as if some unique serious conflict is there when Africa, the Middle East, and everywhere else is engulfed by Muslim insurgencies and Muslim sectarian war. Posted by: Beagle No he needs a foreign policy "win" he doesn't care how he gets it he has always wanted to shit can the alliance with Israel anyway Samantha Power, Valerie Jarrett and Susan Rice believe getting rid of our support of Israel will protect us from Islamic terrorists

Posted by: thunderb at March 03, 2014 07:55 AM (zOTsN)

384 NATOSource ‏@NATOSource 16m Russia Conducts Live Fire Exercises in Baltic.#Ukraine #Kaliningrad http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140303/188053100/Russia-Conducts-Live-Fire-Exercises-in-Baltic.html Â… pic.twitter.com/62Syiu4BxD

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 03, 2014 07:56 AM (ZPrif)

385 The Russians play a tougher game than we do. - And they don't affirmative action at all.

Posted by: WalrusRex at March 03, 2014 07:56 AM (Hx5uv)

386 Great post Drew M.

Posted by: Baldy at March 03, 2014 11:51 AM (2bql3)

 

 

-------------------------------------------

 

 

Except, as has been pointed out upthread, he left out some vital details.

Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 07:57 AM (xMLV7)

387 Poland goes nuclear. Georgia does too if they can scrape up the money. Putin then loses power.

Posted by: Huggy at March 03, 2014 07:58 AM (9mWut)

388 If Ukraine would declare itself a gay santuary, Obama would move to help. It's their only hope!

Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 08:00 AM (1Y+hH)

389 so I guess vlad gave the chinese a call before he invaded ukraine did he call obama also?

Posted by: yankeefifth at March 03, 2014 08:00 AM (rDidD)

390 Russia can't win cause they don't have any Diversity! (Sure, technically, they have lots of different languages, ethnic groups, and religions -- but look at them! Basically all white. And we all know Diversity is really just about skin tone -- a bunch of white people all with different languages, religions, and ethnic backgrounds really are just part of the same, boring, no-Diversity group -- White People!)

Posted by: Progtard 2000 at March 03, 2014 08:01 AM (ZPrif)

391 If Ukraine would declare itself a gay santuary, Obama would move to help.

It's their only hope!

Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 12:00 PM (1Y+hH)

 

 

-----------------------------------------------

 

 

We laugh, but  yes,  something like this could undercut Putin.  Baraka is beholden to the buttsecksors.

Posted by: Soona at March 03, 2014 08:02 AM (xMLV7)

392 If Ukraine would declare itself a gay santuary, Obama would move to help. It's their only hope! Posted by: Meremortal at March 03, 2014 12:00 PM (1Y+hH) ----------------------------------------------- We laugh, but yes, something like this could undercut Putin. Baraka is beholden to the buttsecksors. - I remember when Princess was tweaking Putin's nose about da gay during the Olympics. That worked out well.

Posted by: WalrusRex at March 03, 2014 08:04 AM (Hx5uv)

393 "Yea, I think I know where those South African nukes ended up ... might turn up in Poland, you think?

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 11:43 AM (c6N69)"



I had read that the South Africans gave up their nuclear weapons when they ended white rule but I never heard what happened to them.  If they were not dismantled and used as reactor fuel but wound up in Israel, that would make an interesting and deniable factor. 

Posted by: Obnoxious A-hole at March 03, 2014 08:05 AM (PD6iL)

394 Drew, yes on all points. They have a thousand years of history behind them. Our current leadership chooses to believe that their version of the world that does not include all these realist and nationalist influences. Danger this way comes.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at March 03, 2014 08:06 AM (C6Yy1)

395 Other things Russia has been fanatical about besides Ukraine:

1)  Constantinople
2)  The Balkans
3)  India
4)  Poland
5)  Finland
6)  The Baltic States
7)  Germany
  China
9)  Japan
10) The Caucasus
11) The 'Stans  (because India)
Sorry, Drew. Russian Dreams read just like Islams's.  Stopping them costs blood and treasure.

Posted by: mrp at March 03, 2014 08:08 AM (JBggj)

396 I think the most annoying thing about eco-greenies is that they act as price supports for Arab kingdoms in particular but also the entire petroleum industry. Combine that with the knife-twisting effect of high energy prices to the economy. Hyperenvironmentalism has contributed mightily to impoverishing a generation and hurting national security.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 08:12 AM (sOtz/)

397 Because he so often has “led from behind,” blustered and retreated, our enemies don’t fear our president; our allies don’t trust him; neither do they respect him. American influence has shrunk along with the president’s stature. During the crisis there, Ukraine’s defense minister refused to accept calls from our secretary of defense. Not even the hapless Jimmy Carter made so big a mess. Relations have soured even with Canada, which is tired of being jerked around on the Keystone pipeline.

Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at March 03, 2014 08:12 AM (e8kgV)

398 @380 Yeah, maybe we could send Johnny Weir, Collins, and Sam to talk to Putin, the big guns.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 08:15 AM (sOtz/)

399

There's one more country that should be up on that list at the top, but that I rarely see mentioned.  Romania shares a common border with the Ukraine, is a non-Slavic nation surrounded by Slavs (whom Russia sees itself as being the traditional defender of), speaks a Romance language (further distancing itself culturally from Russia), and is thus perfectly placed to trigger Russia's inherent paranoia regarding "insecure" (i.e. not Russian dominated) borders.  And its on the direct land route to the Bosporus and Dardanelles, which are the key to securing a safe water route between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean (and thus something that Russia has coveted as long as its had a Black Sea Fleet).

 

Posted by: junior at March 03, 2014 08:16 AM (UWFpX)

400 Greetings: I hope all the progressive statists in our Department of State Department can handle the shock of these events. If only some of them had read Samuel P. Huntington's "The Clash of Civilizations...", published back in 1996 and available from Amazon, they might have realized that Ukraine was what the author saw as a "divided" country subject to devolution either from within or without and prepared something along the lines of a contingency plan or, at least, a "Danger, Will Robinson" sign. And, lest you all forget, I have some real problems with the vaunted European Union's behavior in moving Ukrainian history along the road to crisis. From the beginning of my awareness of the situation, it seemed to me that the EU was heavily into "tax-farming" mode trying, in spite of its own serious economic and political problems, to lure the Ukrainian Ukrainians and their near bankrupt corruptocratic country into its own cabal. And believe you me those EU apparatchiks could give Putin's puppets a run for their dachas. The EU's concept of democracy, one might say, is subject to fits and starts in an on again off again kind of way and while political and economic shenanigan's have been sufficient up 'til now (N.B. the EU's recently knotted panties over the Swiss referendum to control immigration into their own country) we will shortly see if they'll let the gal they brought to the dance go home with another guy. Meanwhile, I can't help but wonder what our UN Ambassadoress Samatha Powers is thinking about the "responsibility to protect" that she worked so hard to sell to the rest of the world. I think Mr. Putin is finding it quite useful. As much as we all dislike Mr. Putin and his ways and means, what was fomented and allowed to proceed in Kiev was very much a coup and however much we may like its direction and proponents, it was hardly an exercise in democracy. For some almost nonsensical reason, the EU decided to help foment the overthrow of a somewhat democratically elected government via large scale street disorders, a kind of OCCUPY Wall Street on streroids, and now, finding itself and its new potential subjects in a hole of its own digging, continues its excavation. We are in the best of all possible hands in the best of all possible worlds.

Posted by: 11B40 at March 03, 2014 08:16 AM (evgyj)

401 You an't think of Jimmy Carter's foreign policy withouttinking of ... Brzezinski: Formally Recognize Ukraine, Ready NATO Troops The WorldPost: With recent troop movements, it looks like Russia could be preparing to seize the Crimea. How will Ukrainian's react? Zbigniew Brzezinski: If Russia does that, it may well end up having the Crimea, but it will lose the Ukraine forever. They will never forgive Russia for this. The WorldPost: In the immediate term, what can the West do? Brzezinski: The strategy of the West at this moment should be to complicate Vladimir Putin's planning. He should be given options to avoid conflict. But he should also be made aware of the very negative consequences for Russia that would follow the outbreak of armed conflict. By options, I mean that we should indicate to Russia that we prefer a peaceful accommodation in Ukraine, and NATO should invite the Russians to participate in its ongoing discussions about this crisis. But, at the same time, we should let the Russians know we are not going to be passive. First, we have to formally recognize the new government in the Ukraine, which I believe expresses the will of the people there. It is the legitimate government. And interference in Ukrainian affairs should be considered a hostile act by a foreign power. Further, we should put NATO contingency plans into operation, deploying forces in Central Europe so we are in a position to respond if war should break out and spread. The WorldPost: What is the ultimate solution to Ukraine, historically situated between the West and Russia? Brzezinski: Ultimately, the best solution for the Ukraine would be to become as Finland has been to Russia. That is, a relationship where there are open economic relationships with both Russia and expanding connections with the European Union, but no participation in any military alliance.

Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at March 03, 2014 08:18 AM (e8kgV)

402

@337 If only ten years ago....

It is always, "It'll take ten years to develop the technology to do that (whatever IT is).

----------------------

 

And yet the same people who complain about it taking ten years have no problem throwing vast amounts of cash at things like wind and solar power that are at least twenty years away (if not even further).

 

Posted by: junior at March 03, 2014 08:21 AM (UWFpX)

403 Solar and wind being intermittant can never serve as a reliable foundation for a large power grid.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 08:25 AM (sOtz/)

404 Time to liberate Cuba.

Posted by: teapartydoc at March 03, 2014 08:26 AM (4U98b)

405 @388 Where is there information detailing the alleged EU plot to tamper with Ukraine? People say it but never cite it.

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 08:28 AM (sOtz/)

406 I agree with much of what DrewM says, and said as much over at Hot Gas.  But the real problem with Obama isn't that he couldn't stop Putin.  It's that he likes to talk loud and tough, and likes to SUGGEST he will make Putin come to heel, when he knows he cannot (or at least will not) do anything about him.  It is Obama's feckless, dishonest bluster that is embarrassing our nation and eroding what miniscule credibility we have left.

Posted by: Rusty Nail at March 03, 2014 08:29 AM (WtVhX)

407 @392 Cubans speak Spanish, the native language of much of the US. Good enough. Let's get those casinos back open, dock some cruise ships, and have some cigars. Charge!

Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 08:31 AM (sOtz/)

408 The FACT is that by 2008, Bush WAS a seriously weakened lame duck with a Democratic Congress and the lowest approval ratings of his career.

He was no more likely to take decisive action than Obama is today.

Posted by: Adjoran at March 03, 2014 08:36 AM (QIQ6j)

409 He was no more likely to take decisive action than Obama is today.

Fear not. Obama has a pen and a phone.

Posted by: Feh at March 03, 2014 08:45 AM (v2tHD)

410 This post is BS, with epic ignorance and simple logic. Russia has had and would have had access to "warm sea ports" The fact Ukraine holds commodities and the pipeline to Europe are attractive features for Putin to control, not "stand back and be bludgeoned" due to their existence, with some psuedo-academia nonsense. The attempt by Drew to support said nonsense is moronic. Wake the fuck up. You sound like a dimwitted Dem or member of Obama's cadre of feel good dopes pontificating about the world, through the lens of absolute moral authority. The world isn't a vacuum - and the nonsense of "no one can do anything about Putin" is devoid of reality. Read up on anything concerning the success of America vs USSR during and after the Cold War. It's all right there in front of you.

Posted by: Odie1941 at March 03, 2014 08:45 AM (iS2i7)

411 The difference is that in the South Ossetia deal, Bush had more warships in the Black Sea than Russia did.

Why do you think they pulled back?

Obama's weakness for 6 years is why they view him as weak, Syria just showed that the weakness is the real deal.

I figure Putin figured that Obama could not be that naive, weak, feckless and vacillating but Syria showed he is.

Posted by: Veeshir at March 03, 2014 09:09 AM (PIRfs)

412 "Russia has been fanatical about access to a warm water port since Peter the Great. Do you really think they were going to risk losing access to their outlet to the Black Sea and from there the Mediterranean?" This shows that Drew M never did any actual research on this subject. 1) Russia already has direct access to the Black Sea through numerous ports, including their largest port for grain exports, Novorossiysk, which also has a naval base. The Crimea is in fact, very far away from Russia, and not a very good port. (see 2) 2) Ukraine itself does not use Crimean ports for export. "UkraineÂ’s biggest grain export port of Odessa is about 180 kilometers (112 miles) northeast of the Crimea region, while the grain-shipping ports of Yuzhniy and Nikolaev are more than 150 kilometers away." If anything the Russians just threatened trade with Ukraine with their actions. 3) Gas Pipeline. Sure, it always a good idea to threaten your gas pipeline to Europe by invading its transshipment country. Oh so wise. Ukraine should threaten to cut off the gas flow to Europe until the crisis is resolved - use some judo on Russia. 4) The US could probably do more than we are doing now. Sanctions immediately put in place. Finding ways to supply arms, or gas supplies to Europe or whatever. 5) South Ossetia is tiny, and Georgia is really far away. Though we did have air bases in Turkey. Ukraine is much larger and closer to our logistical tail in Germany. Now, we probably could not do much, and even the things we could do, like sending a fighter wing might be really stupid, because the Crimea is also not that important. The problem is not the Crimea but the other areas with Russian people in them. You do not want an ethnic bloodbath like in Bosnia. But let's drop the myth that Russia "needs" Crimea. It needs them as much as Germany needed Danzig.

Posted by: sexypig at March 03, 2014 09:11 AM (dZQh7)

413 I didn't and don't expect the US to go to war over the Ukraine. It would be nice, though, if the Obama administration had indicated some clue about what was happening and some kind of coherent response planned for the likely outcomes. The US doesn't get to opt out of world events, no matter what Obama and Kerry think.

Posted by: GalosGann at March 03, 2014 09:23 AM (SQ0tv)

414 South Osettia...20,000 people in a tiny inland piece of Georgia. Who cares. Ukraine...much more important. Crimea less so. I think the choices now are sanctions, freezing bank assets, kicking them out of G-8. Canceling Sochi G-8. (BTW, you think those things don't matter? I bet Russian citizens will see this as losing face.) Military wise, I'd be asking the Baltic States and Poland what forces they want based there temporarily. Even a few air wings, tank units, etc. would go a long way to tell Russia that they caused some forceful reaction. Sending units to Kiev, like maybe some AA missile units would be a much stronger action, but could be done. And here's the kicker. Beyond Crimea, what if Russia sends to tanks to Kharkov, Donetsk, etc.? And should we start to prepare now for that move? Obama's off campaigning, when it seems to me there is a lot of work to be done, even if you don't want to defend Ukraine at all, I think you'd need to consider putting something in the Baltics and Poland.

Posted by: sexypig at March 03, 2014 09:28 AM (dZQh7)

415 Our core got rocked on 9/11/2001. How's the fight to defend our core? The whole point of your post, Drew, is that America won't fight, and people will call on America to fight and not be heard. Since everybody knows that, and since any one of our NATO allies could be labeled "not the hill to die on", why side with the United States? Why provoke peaceful revolt, like Spain when it tried to stand with Bush against Al Qaeda? Why stick their necks out to be abandoned by the United States when it hits the fan? The alternative is to give Putin what he wants, make money with him, skip the arms race, and let America be the ones isolated. What would the United States do about that?

Posted by: Chris_Balsz at March 03, 2014 09:32 AM (5xmd7)

416 No confusion about Putin, he wants Russia 3.0 to be a mini me of the USSR. He wants land and he wants subjects- the Ukraine (and Belarus) have the right kind of people Putin wants, Slavs. 

Missed by most of the MSM (but not by blogs) is Russia has millions of older folks are slowly drinking themselves to death. Imagine millions totally dependent on the state for retirement and health care ..and the glorious state unable to provide even if it so desired. Putin would rather spend money on other stuff.

However I sense most westerners have no real idea how absolutely decrepit Russia and the former soviet republics are. Russia is often described as a third world country with nuclear weapons. Most have no idea how "third world" it is.





Posted by: standfast24 at March 03, 2014 09:45 AM (wx/BY)

417 Your analysis is way off.  Actions have consequences, and had Obama not canceled anti-ballistic systems in Poland and the Czech Republic in 2009, things would be much different.  Of course Obama's blurred lines in Syria, 'leading from behind' in Libya, abandonment of a victory in Iraq, and retreat in Afghanistan plus his proposed gutting of the Pentagon doesn't help.

http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20090918/156176090.html

Posted by: Phil in Houston at March 03, 2014 09:52 AM (1wSy1)

418 At one point we had 6 to 8 divisions worth of equipment in Europe, did we leave it when we brought most of the troops home, or did we bring it home with the soldiers?

Posted by: Goatweed at March 03, 2014 09:57 AM (8HrdX)

419 Honestly I think the worst thing President Obama does foreign policy-wise is to make threats he has no intent or capacity to back up. Better to just condemn and make a strong statement for freedom and against invasion than to make threats then walk away mumbling when his bluff is called.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 03, 2014 10:13 AM (zfY+H)

420 ICYMI: http://tinyurl.com/q53xnx3

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at March 03, 2014 10:14 AM (1hM1d)

421 Mooch and Barry to China.  Message to Taiwan.  Remember Ukraine.

Posted by: gracepmc at March 03, 2014 10:36 AM (rznx3)

422 It was to be a cornerstone in PutinÂ’s customs union which was/is to be an alternative trading bloc to the EU.

********
 Alternative trading bloc.  Um, if you say so.

Posted by: gracepmc at March 03, 2014 10:43 AM (rznx3)

423 Greetings, Beagle @ 393: (Posted by: Beagle at March 03, 2014 12:28 PM (sOtz/) @ 393) I don't think Ms Ashton, unfortunately one of the EU's more prominent faces, wasn't dragging herself around Ukraine for the couture shopping now was she ??? Maybe she was just dropping in to see what condition their condition was in ???

Posted by: 11B40 at March 03, 2014 12:19 PM (evgyj)

424 I believe that putin is trying to regain key soviet turf and that there is nothing in place to keep him in check. As far as Obama goes I don't believe that he sees putin as anything more than a political threat but not really a foe, more like an ally in transforming America

Posted by: macko at March 03, 2014 02:04 PM (QePAt)

425 I realize no one is in this thread anymore but I had a thought about 2008 and Putin's actions reflecting on Bush... US presidents, certainly including Bush, are reluctant to do "big things" during the transition between administrations. The timing of Putin's actions in Georgia might well have had at least a little bit to do with Bush *not* being seen as weak.

Posted by: Synova at March 03, 2014 02:22 PM (yWOE5)

426 Goatweed:

The Reforger stocks had been looted to supply the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Posted by: Kristophr at March 03, 2014 03:59 PM (c6N69)

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