I didn't think this one was going to happen. This was in my Let's-Make-A-Show-of-Believing-But-I-Don't-Believe category.

Believe.

A new independent poll has the dean of the U.S. House, Rep. John Dingell trailing his Republican opponent, Rob Steele, by 4 percentage points.

The automated phone survey of 300 people in the 15th Congressional District showed Steele getting 43.8% of the vote. Dingell, a Dearborn Democrat and the longest-serving member of Congress, got 39.5%. About 11% were undecided. The gap is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted Monday.

Click the link to see previous vote shares in the district -- the average over three cycles has been 95% Democrat, 5% Republican. Yes, 95-5.

Check him out and volunteer or donate.

Besides being a cardiologist (also married to a doctor, a psychiatrist)...

A long-time auto enthusiast, Dr Steele enjoys all things automotive, including autocross, racing, mechanical work and restoration. He is a lifetime member of both the National Motorist Association and NRA, and current member of the Washtenaw Sportsman Club. His grandfather and father started a tradition of service through decades of contributions in coaching, teaching and public school boards. He has had an interest in American history and has been a member of the Heritage Foundation for more than 20 years, and was a founding member of the SE Michigan Committee for Heritage.

A few quibbles about the poll: It's a small sample, has a high MoE, and seems pretty dramatic.

We'll have to see. But Dr. Steele is as compelling a candidate as you can want, and he's got an action-movie name so like, Dingell's done.

Lotta stuff at the link, like Dingell's greatest hits (calling a local radio show guy a "terrorist" for opposing ObamaCare).

From The Hostages (H2), where it's Big Boob Friday but they haven't posted the Big Boobs yet. But they will. They're good like that.

Thanks to Laura "Filthy Harlot" W.

Exactly: nine coconuts writes:

The difference in a lot of these out-of-nowhere contests is the ground game.

People calling likely voters and knocking on doors getting the normally docile right leaning voters excited enough to take a stand.

That's right. That's exactly right. Dingell's got the machine working for him; there is no machine at all for Dr. Rob Steele.

So you can either sit on your asses and just read about the wave, which won't come, because you're not making it come, or you can be the wave.

And, again, contact your local GOP offices to find out how you can help. Check out "someone's" post about GOTV -- he actually did it, and wants you to know it's pretty easy, people are friendly about it (bear in mind, they will be targeting you to address likely Republican leaners), and there's a 99% chance you'll meet someone wonderful there and get ridiculously laid.

Okay, he didn't say the last part, but you have to read between the lines here, people.

It really frustrates me that so many conservatives talk a good game about taking our nation back and restoring liberty and securing a better America for our children but do not walk the walk.

Posted by: Ace at 07:46 AM | Comments (116)
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Wicket could not be reached for comment. He was last seen scurry up a tree screaming, "Yub Yub in my bunk bunk".

Republican challenger Dino Rossi has edged slightly ahead of incumbent Democrat Patty Murray in WashingtonÂ’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Washington shows Rossi with 49% of the vote, while MurrayÂ’s support stands at 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see question wording, click here.)

However, the race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

A week ago, the candidates were in a virtual tie as they have been through much of the year, with Rossi earning 48% to MurrayÂ’s 47%. Still, MurrayÂ’s support has fallen from a high earlier last month of 51%, while Rossi's appears to be trending up slightly.

Just a reminder of Patty Murray circa 2002.

"We've got to ask, why is this man (Osama bin Laden) so popular around the world?...Why are people so supportive of him in many countries . . . that are riddled with poverty?

"He's been out in these countries for decades, building schools, building roads, building infrastructure, building day care facilities, building health care facilities, and the people are extremely grateful. We haven't done that.

"How would they look at us today if we had been there helping them with some of that rather than just being the people who are going to bomb in Iraq and go to Afghanistan?"

Remember, the people of Washington reelected her in 2004 after she said that. This is probably our best chance to get rid of her.

Here's Rossi's website and one of his most recent spots.

Posted by: DrewM at 06:17 AM | Comments (91)
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The Nobel Peace Prize has a hit and miss record over the years to say the least. Last year it reached ridiculous proportions when the award went to Barack Obama. Perhaps this year's award to an advocate for Chinese democracy (insert Guns N' Roses joke here, or not) will be a sign of better things to come.

The 2010 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded Friday to Liu Xiaobo, a jailed Chinese democracy activist, in a move that infuriated China's government and could heighten tensions with the West by re-focusing international attention on Beijing's human rights record.

China responded by saying the decision violated the Nobel principles and could damage relations with Norway, where the Nobel Committee is based—even though the five-member body is independent of the government there.

The Nobel Committee said it decided to give the prize to Mr. Liu, who in December was sentenced to 11 years in prison, for his "long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China."

"Over the past decades, China has achieved economic advances to which history can hardly show any equal," it said. "China's new status must entail increased responsibility."

From the man who nominated Liu for the prize.

Liu’s writings express the aspirations of a growing number of China’s citizens; the ideas he has articulated in his allegedly subversive writings, ideas that are commonplace in free societies around the world, are shared by a significant cross section of Chinese society. Charter 08, for example, is a testament to an expanding movement for peaceful political reform in China. This document, which Liu co-authored, is a remarkable attempt both to engage China's leadership and to speak to the Chinese public about where China is and needs to go. It is novel in its breadth and in its list of signers—not only dissidents and human rights lawyers, but also prominent political scientists, economists, writers, artists, grassroots activists, farmers, and even government officials. More than 10,000 Chinese citizens have endorsed the document despite the fact that almost all of the original 300 signers have since been detained or harassed. In doing so they, too, exhibited exceptional courage and conviction. One of them, for example, a teacher in Yunnan province, reported that police contacted her three times asking her to renounce the Charter and proclaim the signer was some other person with the same name. She refused. To stand up for Liu Xiaobo is to stand with a growing number of men and women like her in China; to stand with all those who advocate for peaceful change in the world’s most populous nation.

In fact, Liu Xiaobo is the kind of figure governments suppress at their peril. While he was a young university professor, Liu was a major protagonist in the final days of the Tiananmen Square protests, and, as I have already said, he is widely credited with preventing far greater bloodshed when government troops moved into the square. Liu admonished the students to make their own movement more democratic; he disarmed a group of workers who appeared with guns to protect the student demonstrators (there is stirring news footage of him seizing a rifle and smashing it at a Tiananmen rally shortly before the crackdown); and he helped persuade students to evacuate the square in the final hours. Deeply committed to non-violence and democracy, Liu has been able both to articulate and to channel the frustrations of the Chinese people for more than two decades. Stifling such a voice does nothing to address those frustrations, which one way or another will eventually find expression. China has, indeed, moved increasingly towards democracy and freedom in the last few decades.

Liu isn't a sexy and exciting pick like Obama was thought to be in 2009 but there is the advantage that he has actually done something of note, namely put his life on the line in the name of freedom.

Liu won't get 1/10 of the worldwide attention Obama did but then again, he won't be partying it up in Oslo with the world's professional 'peace' industry. Barring some surprising change in position by the Chinese government, Liu will be rotting away in a gulag.

Not all Nobel Peace Laureates are created equal.

Posted by: DrewM at 05:42 AM | Comments (60)
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UPDATE: The most important stat in the BLS report is the huge increase in workers forced into part-time work due to economic circumstances. This category has increased by 940,000 people over the past two months.

The BLS just released the unemployment rate for last month, and at first blush it's not the most interesting of results. The U-3 unemployment rate last month was 9.6% and this month it's.......9.6%. Here's how that looks on The Chart:

We lost 95K non-farm jobs, but they claim that we added 64K private sector jobs. That doesn't agree well with ADP's announcement that we lost 39,000 jobs last month.

I had many requests for particular graphs yesterday: I'm going to start adding them below the fold as I get to them. more...

Posted by: Geoff at 05:14 AM | Comments (74)
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I love this story. Sometimes there's a fine line between standing up to jerks and being a jerk yourself, but there's also such a thing as being a doormat because you don't want to be rude. Consideration and respect is a two-way street, and it should not be used as a form of blackmail.

If at first you don't succeed, give up and cry about it. Pull quote:

"I can't blame those who don't take to the streets any more," 18-year-old protester Danae Burnu said. "They think: I shouted, I protested, so what? What happened? Sometimes you can't save yourself and the world at the same time, and they lose money when they strike."

Posted by: Monty at 03:37 AM | Comments (115)
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One dead, others fled and likely wounded.

Posted by: Ace at 09:32 PM | Comments (70)
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Everything that guy just said is bullshit.

Meek vehemently insisted on Thursday that he is in the race to the end.

"I'm taking a stand against the radical right,” said Meek. “Marco Rubio has always been the tea party candidate and yesterday Charlie Crist says he wants to crash the tea party, too. I'm the only candidate who's fighting for the middle class and I'm not going anywhere except the United States Senate.

"If you want to stop the privatization of Social Security and Medicare, stop more tax cuts for the wealthy, stop more special-interest tax breaks, stop more environmental destruction and stop more jobs being shipped overseas, I'm asking you to take a stand with me,” added Meek. "Because if they want to go back to the Bush years, they're going to have to go through this 6-foot-3-inch former state trooper."

I may add a little more on this in a minute.

Okay: What I hear, from a Florida source (and only one), is that an old Crist hand, an ally and lobbyist, was the one calling this story around, especially calling South Florida Jewish Democrats to claim that this was in the works. The plan, apparently, was to convince enough people that it was happening to get media to report it was happening so that it would snowball interest in it, cripple Meek's candidacy, and make it actually happen.

Meek, and Meek's supporters, will probably become further incensed at the sneaky little shit that we call Charlie Crist.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 06:41 PM | Comments (115)
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Happy Thursday all.

Cliff Clavin on Jeopardy

Oh and like you'd do much better. And Tony Curtis may be gone but he still has his cellphone so let's give him a call right now and do a little checking.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 05:19 PM | Comments (528)
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Update: This guy says it's the Crist camp putting this story out.

According to his profile he's a Republican strategist in Florida.

I have to tell you, usually when I put a name behind a quote, I'm suggesting the guy is credible. In this case, I have no idea. I haven't heard of him before.

Nathan Wurzel says Meek can't drop out, or else there would be a disaster for Democrats down-ticket, as many Democrats would stay home. Well... yeah but there is a hotly-contested gubernatorial race in which a D appears.

However, it's possible he's right anyway. If this appeared to blacks that the black guy was being thrown under the bus so that the white guy (or, umber guy, whatever he is) and the Latino guy could have a proper race, it could keep enough of them home to not only sink Crist, but sink, well, Sink, and a host of Congressional reps and state legislators and eff-all too.

Plus, really -- Crist isn't exactly lighting the state on fire, either. Why should Meek drop out? At least he won a primary.

Thanks to Slublog for that, who's kicking himself for forgetting his Pimp Hand Spitzer p-shop for the live-blog the other day.

...

Rumors... but I don't like 'em.

The math is that Meek can't win (couldn't he? If Crist dropped out?) so something will be arranged for Meek so he can get out.

Allah wonders, as I do, if the ballots are already printed and if there's any way to strip his name off them if he does drop out. Even if he did that, I don't think that many voters are that disconnected that they won't have heard Meek's out. Sure, some, but not a lot.

Average Polls... At RCP, Rubio has an average of about 42%, Crist 31%, Meek 19%.

Now, if you merely add B to C there you get 50%.

What we'd have to hope is that Crist would now be unmasked as simply a Democrat running falsely as an Independent and that a good chunk of his idiot "moderate" Republican supporters peel away from him. (He continues to evade the question of whether he'd caucus with Republicans or Democrats, insisting he will caucus "with the people." Right -- which people, slick?)

And we'd also have to hope that some number of Meek's supporters would, futilely, still vote for Meek, and that some of them would even jump to Rubio. Not a lot; but who knows, perhaps there are some Hispanics intent on voting Democrat but would jump to Rubio if the Democrat weren't in the race.

And, of course: The Big Red Wave.

That's a lot of hoping, but it would still be doable. But, no doubt: We'd re-start this race behind the Sienna Seditioner Crist.

Except... Except for the Quinnippiac poll putting Rubio at 46%. If that poll is accurate, then I think Rubio would actually be ahead, even in a two-party race.

Yeah, I know, 46% isn't 50%, either. But still. But Crist's voters can't be that enthusiastic over a bland mediocre careerist, and the dispirited Democrats can't be happy about a former Republican turned out-and-proud panderer.

46% will be 50% on election day.

But, of course, I don't know that Qunnippiac is right.

Posted by: Ace at 04:42 PM | Comments (97)
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Not that it would have made much difference, Maxine couldn't lose in CA-35 nor Charlie in NY-15 if they dragged a puppy into a press conference and and choked it to death on camera, but it gives them some breathing room, i.e. "let things cool down and let's not be a distraction or nothin."

The House ethics committee announced Thursday that RangelÂ’s trial will begin Nov. 15 and WatersÂ’s will start Nov. 29.

Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), who chairs the panel, made the decision unilaterally after Republicans publicly balked last week about the delay in setting the schedule and argued the trials should be held before the November midterms.

Lofgren, is she the same ninny who brought Colbert in for immigration hearings?

There's an awful lot of Democrat political hackery being carried out by these committee chairs. It's business as usual by whichever party is in power, so I hope these Republicans get that when the wave crests. I don't mean the hackery, I mean understanding how pissed off people are regarding business as usual.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 04:37 PM | Comments (24)
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