Long story short: The Commerce Clause means the government can do pretty much whatever it wants so long as the activity in question, or even the decision to to engage in economic activity at all, somewhere affects the national economy in aggregate.

Posted by: Ace at 04:14 PM | Comments (159)
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Even CBS. Even CBS.

CBS?

CBS is... out?

CBS is out?!

Now usually you morons don't read the article-parts here and just focus on the raw numbers, which is usually fine, because, honestly, I haven't read the article-part I'm posting. I'm just deciding, "Oh, there's three paragraphs, must be something in there worth reading, I'll cut and paste that."

Okay, so yeah I don't read this stupid blog either as we all know.

But stay with this excerpt for a tasty little treat at the end.

Republicans now hold an eight point lead over Democrats in the generic ballot, with 45 percent of likely voters saying they would support the Republican candidate for the House, and 37 percent saying they would support the Democrat. Last month Republicans led Democrats by a margin of only 2 points...

President Obama's overall favorability remains steady, the poll indicates, with 44 percent positive ratings and 45 percent negative, but his ratings on the economy are lower than ever before: 38 percent of respondents approved of his handling of the issue, while 50 percent disapproved. Last month, 41 percent approved, and 51 percent disapproved.

But while Democrats have lately been making widespread efforts to diminish the so-called "enthusiasm gap" between Republican and Democratic voters, the poll, which was conducted from October 1 - 5, indicates that the gap has in fact expanded. Sixty percent of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year, while only 40 percent of Democrats said the same. Last month, 47 Democrats and 58 percent of Republicans said they were more excited than usual to vote.

At forty-nine percent, Independents are now more enthusiastic than Democrats, the poll indicates.

Now that's somethin'. Independents are now 1) inclined to vote Republican and 2) are more enthusiastic about doing so than Democrats.

At the link Dan has another poll, about something. Tea Party, maybe, or some other thing. I don't know. I read those four paragraphs above and I think that's plenty.

Posted by: Ace at 03:18 PM | Comments (178)
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I don't know why these guys put themselves out there like that.

Especially guys like Crist.

About That Last Story: I've been cautioned to let this story go until those who got the story together are ready to run with it.

So, I put it into draft.

Posted by: Ace at 02:50 PM | Comments (122)
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Maybe a moral victory.

You know why they call it a moral victory, right? To contrast it with the other kind, the real victory.

There is a Democratic mini-surge going on, we are told, as some campaigns produce poll numbers showing they have been prematurely written off as, well, dead.

...

This cycle, many Democrats I talk with acknowledge that big defeats are inevitable, but they then go on to argue their candidate is the one who is going to survive, pointing either to a new poll, the presence of a third-party candidate on the ballot or the alleged unelectability of the GOP challenger.

So, you get situations such as Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.) trying to alter the conventional wisdom that she is destined to lose by releasing a campaign poll showing her tied with Republican challenger Cory Gardner at 38 percent, with two other candidates drawing a combined 7 percent.

Forget the fact that any Democratic incumbent getting 38 percent of the vote in September of an election year is toast. Also ignore the fact that other polling, not yet released, conducted more recently by a Republican pollster for whom I have the highest regard shows Markey trailing badly.

Are we really to believe that Markey — who represents a district won narrowly by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) two years ago, by President George W. Bush by 17 points in 2004 and by Bush by more than 20 points in 2000 — is going to get re-elected if and when Democrats lose 30 seats in the House?

Remember, Markey voted for the stimulus bill, the health care reform bill and cap-and-trade after coming into my office as a candidate and stressing that she was a moderate Democrat.

So IÂ’m supposed to believe that at least a couple dozen other Democratic seats are going to turn Republican, but MarkeyÂ’s seat isnÂ’t?

He then goes on to giggle at Democrats crowing that they've "surged" all the way up to 45% -- pointing out that 45% is not, no matter how surge-y, 50%.

Meanwhile, at Hot Air, the Democrats are taking money out of races once considered lean Dem and putting into races once considered safe Dem.

his week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running ads in seats held by Reps. Bill Delahunt (Mass.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Phil Hare (Ill.), Bill Foster (Ill.),Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Sanford Bishop (Ga.), and John Salazar (Colo.). In each district, Democrats won re-election by significant, if not overwhelming, margins in 2008. Now, Democrats view every one of those seats as endangered. Â…

Meanwhile, much more vulnerable Democrats, who face much better-funded Republican challengers, are seeing their ad buys cut, a clear sign that Democrats believe spending money on their behalf is a waste of resources. Earlier this week, Democrats cut ad buys in districts held by Reps. Betsy Markey (Colo.), Harry Teague (N.M.), Chet Edwards (Texas), and Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), and in open seats being vacated by Reps. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) and Dennis Moore (Kan.).

Posted by: Ace at 02:36 PM | Comments (28)
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The metaphors are piling up here, aren't they?

About three dozen people have been treated for illness during a rally featuring President Obama at Bowie State University.

Prince George's County Fire and EMS spokesman Mark Brady tells WTOP numerous ambulances have been sent to the rally after people started fainting and became dizzy.

Imperiled Democrat Steny Hoyer was there too (in Maryland).

And remember, Hoyer's up against a Marine who looks like Taye Diggs' brawnier older brother.

On the other hand, Steny Hoyer looks like Steny Hoyer, so that's a problem for him.

Thanks to Dr. Spank.

Whoops: I knew it was Maryland but I wrote "Delaware." Eh, they're virtually the same thing. Who cares. Delaware is just Maryland without the, the, whatever Maryland is supposed to have. Crabs I guess.

Posted by: Ace at 12:42 PM | Comments (305)
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Additional tunnels with trains were to be built below the Hudson, increasing train connectivity between NJ and NYC.

The plan was... well, it's not a bad plan. I generally support this kind of government spending, on planes, trains, and automobiles.

But NJ is out of money. "Nice but not necessary" should get cut, but rarely does, because, like, oh my God you can't just stop building a tunnel.

Yes you can.

Christie said the tunnel project costs “far more than New Jersey taxpayers can afford and the only prudent move is to end this project.”

James Weinstein, the executive director of NJ Transit, in a statement, said while the state recognized the importance and value of a cross-Hudson transportation improvement project, “the current economic climate in New Jersey simply does not allow for this project to continue considering the substantial additional costs that are required.”

Memo from ARC Project Executive Committee

The governor said he has directed the state’s transportation officials to explore other approaches to modernize and expand rail capacity into New York. “However, any future project must recognize the regional and national scale of such an effort and work within the scope of the State’s current fiscal and economic realities,” he said.

Christie called a 30-day temporary halt in September on new tunnel construction, as behind-the-scenes cost projections suggested the tunnel project costs would swell more than $1 billion above the $8.7 million proposed price tag. He said he didn’t want the New Jersey version of Boston’s "Big Dig" — a tunnel mega-project that saw the final tally climb to nearly ten times the original $2.8 billion estimate.

Wait -- 8.7 million with a 1 billion overrun??!!

No, they mean 8.7 billion. Yeah, I looked it up for once. Yay, me.

I left the error in to prove other people do it too, you know.

Oh, and that $1 billion in overruns seems on the low side.

According to the governor, cost overruns are estimated to be in a range from more than $2 billion to over $5 billion.

A bit more: the project was rushed to give Corzine an election year photo-op.

Tunnel opponents maintained the project was rushed together so then-Gov. Jon Corzine could get a re-election campaign photo opportunity at a ceremonial groundbreaking in summer 2009.

Click on the link to JWF to read Paul Krugman hyperventilating about how awful this is.

Krugman does have something of a point: Since the feds were kicking in $3 billion and the Port Authority $3 billion, with the state supposed to pick up the remaining $2.7 billion and all additional overruns, canceling the project loses the state money. I mean, I suppose if you could just pay that $2.7 billion and get an additional $6 billion tossed into the deal, that might be a good deal.

But look, it's not going to be $2.7 billion. It won't be $3.7 billion. It probably won't be $4.7 billion and it might not even be just $7.7 billion.

We saw what happened with the Big Dig.

And: The state doesn't have the money, whatever it is.

And what Krugman's really steamed about is that Christie won't just break his campaign pledge to raise gas taxes.

That's what his problem really is; liberals have in mind an ever-expanding state, and for that they need ever-expanding tax revenues. Until now they have had relatively little pushback: they get slowdowns in the rate of expansion of taxation, but usually no sustained rollback.

Christie represents a direct threat to that, and therefore to Paul Krugman's dreams of a well-funded, gold-plated, tax-vampire Colossus State.

So this isn't just about a tunnel for him. This is about a direct challenge to his sense of well-being.

Sorry, Paul, but if you're looking for Santa Claus, you came to the wrong place.

Posted by: Ace at 11:54 AM | Comments (164)
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Yes, the audience will be cast.

PRESIDENT OBAMA TOWN HALL, MTV

MTV, BET and CMT are casting the audience for town hall meeting with President Obama. Shooting Oct. 14, 4 p.m. in Washington, D.C.

Seeking—Audience Members: males & females, 18+.

To apply, email townhallaudience@mtvnmix.com and put “Town Hall” in the subject line. To ensure that the audience represents diverse interests and political views, include your name, phone number, hometown, school attending, your job and what issues, if any, you are interested in or passionate about. Also, provide a recent photo and short description of your political views. Submission deadline: Oct. 14. No pay.

"No pay."

They had to note this because this advert ran in Backstage, a magazine for, um, casting actors into prewritten parts.

Posted by: Ace at 11:43 AM | Comments (104)
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Yeah me too. For those of us without Barone-like political knowledge of every Congressional district it gets hard to keep track of each race or the national situation. Luckily Google has an Election 2010 widget that lets you see the state of the political landscape at a glance based on the top predictors in politics - Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg, CQ-Roll Call, and RealClearPolitics.

Just click on a race, state, and source to see what each group is saying. Of course these are based on polls and other data so they're probably slightly lagging indicators of the true state. But as pollsters switch completely over to likely voter models you should start seeing the ratings converge towards the likely actual results.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 11:22 AM | Comments (53)
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Over at Blackfive, the vets are burning their VFW cards.

Yes, the Veterans of Foreign Wars decided to endorse chairborne ranger Ron "I feel threatened" Klein over Lt. Colonel Allen West.

Oh, and check out who else they're endorsing:

Barbara Boxer, Alcee Hastings, Barbara Lee, Steny Hoyer, Barbara Mikulsky, Chris VanHollen, John Dingell, Chuckie Schumer, Pat Leahy and Patty Murray

I haven't seen that kind of combat experience assembled in one place since the Force 10 from Navaronne class reunion.

Mr. Wolf urges:

I am asking all of you to join me in contacting the VFW to protest this development; supporting a non-vet over LTC West was the last straw.

Call the VFW at 1-202-544-5868. Email them at: vfwpac@vfw.org.

Look, as the old truism goes: Any organization which is not expressly right-wing will become left-wing over time. The reason is personnel; liberals don't like actually making or doing things; they prefer to deal in the abstract, hands-clean. They like to advocate, or support, or take some people's money and give it to some other people. So the constant stream of personnel seeking employment in these organizations' bureaucracies is lefty, and at some point they reach critical mass and can begin blackballing any applicant who's not lefty enough.

So, there you go. Now the VFW falls, as the AMA fell before it.

Posted by: Ace at 11:17 AM | Comments (121)
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Welcome to the party, pal!

According to an NRCC source familiar with the effort, the newly added targets include five Democrats whose districts, until recently, were thought to be out of reach this year: Reps. Tim Walz of Minnesota, Sanford Bishop of Georgia, Phil Hare of Illinois, Zack Space of Ohio and John Salazar of Colorado.

Republican strategists say that the $45 million figure is far more than they expected the committee to have for the fall campaign and represents an effort to take full advantage of the Republican-friendly political environment by investing in as many potentially winnable Democratic districts as possible. The NRCC initially reserved $22 million across 41 districts in August before expanding to $35 million in 55 districts in September.

“When we look up at the scoreboard on Nov. 3rd, we’ll look back and know that we left everything on the field,” said an NRCC source familiar with the effort.

To help finance the effort, House Republicans are also leaning on members for a late flood of cash. At a conference-wide meeting last week at the Capitol Hill Club, members donated or pledged a combined $4 million to NRCC coffers, with $1 million coming from House Minority Leader John Boehner.

All of it is designed to stretch the map as wide as possible. In recent weeks, Republicans have also begun airing ads targeting Democratic Reps. Ike Skelton of Missouri, Mike McIntyre of North Carolina, Jim Marshall of Georgia and Jerry McNerney of California — a tier of races that were once thought to be less competitive but now are seen as in play.

The committee is searching for new targets of opportunity as party strategists come closer to finalizing their roster of races. The NRCC has begun polling in three additional districts, including the Eastern Iowa-based seat of Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack.

Full story at Politico.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 10:40 AM | Comments (70)
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