This is a little complicated, but the polls have been claiming around 35% of the Ohio population has voted early. Rasumssen even pegged it at 40%.

Conservatives have been saying for a while that the polls were skewed because too many people were saying they'd voted early. Either they were a self-selecting unrepresentative sample -- perhaps so jazzed about voting they were much more eager to talk to a pollster for a half an hour or 40 minutes -- or a lot of people were just claiming "I already voted," even though they didn't.

Assuming Ohio will produce a 2004 level of turnout, early voting in fact accounts for only 32% of all votes which will be cast. Assuming a 2008 level, early voting accounts for only 31% of all votes which will ultimately be cast.

And note that if voting exceeds 2008, somehow, that pushes the fraction of early voters down even further.

Now, those who voted early skew towards Obama while those who have yet to vote skew to Romney. So the relative proportion of these two cohorts affects the final vote count.

The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney.

It also makes the polls suspect.

But Nate Silver shrugged it off:

In a discussion on Twitter, Silver and Wasserman focused largely on the surprise changes in turnout in many of Ohio’s counties. While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%. Wisserman, while still predicting an Obama victory, suggested that trend meant a tighter race in Ohio than expected and suggested it might undercut Nate Silver’s famous forecast. Nate Silver’s response: “I’ll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.”

While some people are turning to counting the votes, Nate Silver is still just looking at the polls.

I wonder if he'll keep that up through, say, Thanksgiving.

More from Bryan Preston.

Posted by: Ace at 11:37 AM | Comments (347)
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Bumped by Ace. A Republican official also had a similar problem -- being told he had already voted absentee when he hadn't (he hadn't even requested an absentee ballot).

Stand your ground. You are entitled to a provisional ballot. If you cast a provisional ballot, there'll be proceeding to determine what's gone wrong. Put them in the spotlight for their incompetence.

Lot of this going 'round.

Remember, the official inquiry only begins when you stand your ground, insist on a provisional ballot, and declare you have not already voted, so whatever vote was cast in your name was cast by a criminal, who needs to be locked up in jail, and who also needs some scrutiny into who's paying him to do this.

...

Commenter Alice passed along info about voters being turned back at her polling place because they aren't on the voter rolls. She wanted to remind you to request a provisional ballot, don't take no for an answer, and don't listen to them tell you it won't count.

You'll have to follow up with the registrar (or whoever is responsible for voter registration in your county) to demonstrate your eligibility, which is racist, but whatever.

Passing this along without checking the actual rules and shit in CO, because I'm at work and besides I'm the worst researcher on this moron blog.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 11:00 AM | Comments (511)
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Tucker Carlson and Neil Patel pen a scorching column about the coming death of the establishment media.

. The point is that many in the press are every bit as corrupt as conservatives have accused them of being. The good news is, it’s almost over. The broadcast networks, the big daily newspapers, the newsweeklies — they’re done. It’s only a matter of time, and everyone who works there knows it. That may be why so many of them seem tapped out, lazy and enervated, unwilling to stray from the same tired story lines. Some days they seem engaged only on Twitter, where they spend hours preening for one another and sneering at outsiders.

By the next presidential cycle most of these people will be gone. TheyÂ’ll have moved on to academia or think tanks or Democratic senate campaigns, or wherever aging hacks go when their union contracts finally, inevitably get voided. TheyÂ’ll be replaced by a vibrant digital marketplace filled with hungry young reporters who care more about breaking stories than maintaining access to some politician or regulator.

All of this was probably inevitable, but it came faster than expected. Through their dishonesty the legacy media hastened their own end. Their moral authority has evaporated. So has their business model. Wave them goodbye on the way out.

Posted by: Ace at 10:51 AM | Comments (174)
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A judge has now ordered them to cover the mural.

The poll workers, you see, didn't see any problem with this. A judge's order was required to make this happen.

They've Kind of Just Ignored The Judge, Left The Obama Symbol Displayed: Holy crap.

Posted by: Ace at 10:14 AM | Comments (454)
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The other thread is getting a bit long. Also, some reading material:

Commentary: editors change poll results
Jim Geraghty has updates for you.
This is a damn outrage.
Yup, Brad Pitt ruined "World War Z"
EMERGENCY PUPPY
The Corner is updating.
A great NY Post front page.

Also, again, soon we will see the media going nuts over "exit polling." Ignore them.

[Update - Andy]: Gabe pulled up the election night liveblog thread from 2008 and sent it around to the cobs if you're in the mood for a walk down bad memory lane. On the upside, it looks like everyone was pretty well inebriated before it even started.

Will there be a liveblog tonight? Why, yes. Yes, there will.

Posted by: Slublog at 09:39 AM | Comments (354)
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Hard to believe the day has finally arrived. Vote. Volunteer. What's everyone seeing out there?

A little motivational music below. more...

Posted by: Slublog at 07:52 AM | Comments (931)
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This was originally going to just be a predictions thread but Democratic Machine Media (DMM) hacks like Chuck Todd are already working hard to depress GOP turnout.

On Morning Joe he kept hitting the idea that Romney will have tough sledding because "half the swing state vote is in". First, that's likely not true. Second, if it is true it assumes a huge Obama advantage.

That's definitely not true.

Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.

All this talk about Obama's huge early vote lead is bullshit propaganda. I still think this will be very close in several key states (shocking!) and the race could go either way but what the Chuck Todds of the world are doing is simply what they've been doing for over 5 years...carrying Obama's water.

Ignore them.

Now, onto "staff" predictions:

Ace: Romney 348- Obama 190

Me: Romney 277-Obama 261

CAC: Romney 277- Obama 261

RDBrewer: Romney 338- Obama 200

Gabe: Romney 267- Obama 271

Russ: Romney 466- Obama 72

Dave In Texas: "Chaos" (Ohio is the new Florida) also Romney 286- Obama 252

Andy: Romney 316- Obama 222

John E.: Romney 315- Obama 223

And for some fun:

@reidepstein: VP pooler @mikememoli in Delaware: Is this the last time you will vote for yourself? Joe Biden: "No, I don't think so."

Biden 2016: Because The Lulz!

Oh and no news post from Ben today, he's working hard for Team Mitt today.

Last prediction: Obama will definitely carry the key swing-state of "Oiho".

Posted by: DrewM at 05:48 AM | Comments (536)
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In about 15 minutes, I'm heading down the street to vote. My little role in the 2012 GOTV effort, or as I like to call it, "Operation Visine" (Get The Red Out). But voting is only half the battle.

As the parent of a 4-year old and the caretaker for a new puppy, please allow me to use an analogy that I've used for a couple of years: Voting is like having a bowel movement - you have to do it RIGHT.

You can sit on the couch and crap your pants if you wish. I don't understand that type of thinking, apparenty you HOPE that someone will come along and CHANGE your pants before the smell gets too bad.

You can take a crap in the sink. It's an immature response that might be useful as a protest, (like back in college when the neighbors kept having loud parties and you left an "upper decker" in their bathroom out of frustration) but do you really want to be known as "that guy"? If so, fine. Just realize that it's got the same results as crapping your pants: Someone else will have to clean up the mess. But at least you can proudly say "I didn't crap my pants". As if it matters.

Or, you can be a "big boy" and use the toilet. And while you're at it? Flush. It's the decent thing to do.

Posted by: Russ from Winterset at 04:21 AM | Comments (441)
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Happy Tuesday.

You get an early, content-less morning post today because I'm off to stand in line at the polls. Go vote.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:07 AM | Comments (566)
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As Romney says: Forewarned.

What a dick move. It's such a dick move that a half hour ago, before I read this report, I was just thinking Romney should do it himself.

Thor explains that Obama will trust in the media to carry his message of Complete and Total Domination In the Vote in order to keep conservatives, Tea Partiers, and America-loving libertarians home.

Forewarned.

Remember:

more...

Posted by: Ace at 09:18 PM | Comments (391)
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