Just a new thread. Not a lot of calls lately.

Regarding the Decision Desk post, we're going to alternate top slot.

Posted by: Ace at 03:45 PM | Comments (499)
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Just over Fox.

Now, that's an exit poll. But it's a subset of Independents, so I buy it a little more.

And here's the thing: I bet this understates the lead with Independents. Shy Tory rule, again.

More: CNN's exits have it 49-49. This almost certainly means it's in the bag for Team Red.

In addition, I saw secondhand that Obama's advantage with women is just +5. Not enough.

Posted by: Ace at 03:09 PM | Comments (53)
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Yeah, Kerry did not win Virginia.

I'll get off this now but these exit polls are non-scientific polls. They are not random dials. They are self-selecting. There is selection error by surveyor -- 19 year old sociology major with a "Darwin" fish headband -- and selection bias by those surveyed. The Shy Tory phenomenon, where those likely to be branded "Racist!" don't wish to be branded "Racist!," and so refuse to respond.

Do you get excited over Freeped polls, which also are self-selecting and thus not scientific? No, you don't.

So just vote.

Remember, the 2004 exits had Kerry winning nationally 51-48. Actual result? Pretty much the opposite of that. Bush won by just under three points.

Thus, a nearly +6 bias in favor of Democrats.

You can also ignore the sub-toplines in the exits, for the exact same reason. They're saying on CNN this is the first election in which Hispanics make up 10% of the voting population. Again -- self-selected. D+6. More whites than anyone else avoiding the sociology major.

The exits are, through-and-through, faulty and a big waste of your time.

I say again: Random-digit-dial polls are more accurate.

If you weren't phased by Romney down 2 in Ohio in actual polls, you shouldn't sweat him being down in Ohio by exit polls.

Posted by: Ace at 02:50 PM | Comments (26)
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I'm hearing there are long lines in Ohio and some Republicans are bailing from the lines.

Do not bail. It's close.

Put the word out, if you can.

Posted by: Ace at 02:19 PM | Comments (137)
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When I first looked at Drudge, he seemed to have more states in the Obama column.

Now, the only state that isn't a longshot he has going for Obama is New Hampshire. The others are MI, PA, and and NV. All of these are in the "longshot" category. Only New Hampshire was considered a good shot for Romney.

Now in the Toss ups it's the states we already knew would be tough: OH, VA, CO, IA.

If the exit polls say "toss up" there, you know what I'm thinking? President Romney.

Posted by: Ace at 02:15 PM | Comments (122)
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This map is EST-based so let your comment timestamps guide you. The first state-wide results should start rolling in about an hour or so.

Me - I'm about to crash and wake up in a few hours to see whether my optimistic pudding futures position is gonna pay off....or whether I'm going to have to make my way to a safe house until the Gadsdens can smuggle me into Free Texas.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 02:02 PM | Comments (131)
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So the Exit Polls are being leaked now. Drudge headlines "Race tight." You'll be seeing more leaks, with real numbers.

But remember: These are just polls. Surveys. And they skew more Democratic than the actual polls do.

In 2004, Kerry was picking out new curtains for the Oval Office because the exit polls showed him destroying George Bush.

But then people started noting: In the Pennsylvania exits, there were 22% more women surveyed than men. Could that be right?

No, it wasn't right. The exit polls had a massive Democratic skew for several reasons. The people conducting the polls were young college students, for example. Older voters avoided them (figuring they would look down on their vote) and they, in turn, avoided older voters (because older voters are square, man!).

Basically, exit polls have a very high level of self-selection. They are not random. The pollster decides who looks like a nice young Democratic-leaning voter who she might want to date, and chats him up about his vote. And the voters self-select, because they don't really feel like being judged for voting Republican by a 19 year old sociology major.

Also ignore the secondary findings from the exit polls -- stuff like "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" or "What's the top issue of this campaign?"

All of these results are skewed by a far-too-liberal sample.

Though I might hazard a guess that "Tight race" means "Romney winning" in actual votes.

I See Now... Drudge is saying the exit polls show Obama winning Ohio, Iowa, others.

Silly. These exit polls also said Kerry won Ohio. He did not win Ohio.

Completely Inaccurate: The skews are huge.

Four years ago, on Pollster.com, we gathered all of the official
tabulations posted as polls closed and extrapolated the underlying
estimates of the outcome for each state. When later compared against the
final vote counts in each state, we found that the initial estimates
had overstated Barack Obama's margins by an average of 4.7 percentage
points.

It gets worse. That's just the average.. In some states, they overstated Obama's margin of victory by sixteen and a half points.

They also went the other way in some cases -- in a couple of McCain states, they overstated his support by 5.5 points.

I think the reason for this is that conservatives in blue states and in swing states just don't want to explain their vote to a sociology major.

Posted by: Ace at 01:45 PM | Comments (247)
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Assuming Romney wins Florida, NC, and Virginia, then Wisconsin, Colorado, and either Iowa or New Hampshire wins it for him.

I think Team Obama is trying to put out word that Virginia is shaky for Romney. I think they're trying to demoralize us. I don't believe it.

If Rasmussen and Gallup are right about the partisan skew of the country's actual voter population, which is either R+1 or R +6, respectively, then the polls offered by virtually everyone else aren't worth jack.

If Mitt Romney wins tonight, it’ll likely be because of something revealed by a little-noticed statistic released yesterday by the polling firm Rasmussen — following a similar statistic last week from Gallup.

Rasmussen revealed that for the month of October, its data showed that among likely voters, the electorate is 39 percent Republican and 33 percent Democratic.

This comes from a survey of 15,000 people taken over the course of a month. Yes, 15,000 people —15 times the number in a statistically significant poll.

This number might be discounted, since Rasmussen has a reputation as leaning Republican. Except that last week, Gallup — the oldest and most reputable national pollster — released its party ID survey of 9,424 likely voters. And it came out 36 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat.

This means two firms, with huge numbers of likely voters in their surveys, are finding on election eve that there are more Republican than Democratic voters.

Why does this matter? Because never in the history of polling, dating back to 1936, have self-identified Republicans outnumbered Democrats on Election Day. Never. Ever.

Posted by: Ace at 01:19 PM | Comments (363)
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Good guide. I'll be checking back with it through the night. He notes the Senate races in play, important (seriously contested) House races, and gubernatorial races.

Pinellas County, Florida: It went Obama 54-46 in 2008.

Early and absentee voting is at now at parity, according to party affiliation.

StarKhan Reince Priebus Makes A Bold Call: Says networks will call the race by 10:30. For Romney.

Looking at body language: Republicans on TV look upbeat. I just saw Bill Richardson (D) on Cavuto. He looked like he was going through the motions.

More: I already linked this Geraghty piece but now he's added a series of updates.

The GOP is claiming that they're strong in northern Bucks County (critical Philadelphia suburb). They say this is a bellwether.

I don't know if they mean norther Bucks County is a bellwether or if Bucks County as a whole is bellwether. If it's the latter, I don't know how to read this information, as they're only talking about the the north of the county.

Meanwhile, in Virginia:

In Democratic stronghold Charlottesville at 1 p.m., turnout was 36 percent of registered voters. Obama got 80 percent of the vote there in 2008.

In Democratic stronghold Martinsville at noon, turnout was out 34 percent of registered voters. Obama got 65 percent of the vote there in 2008.

via @sloane.

Posted by: Ace at 12:51 PM | Comments (329)
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Try to keep this thread relatively free of chit-chat and OT stuff. Questions about a report are fine, as long as they're seeking additional information about it.

Please post your personal turnout reports, and vibe-type stuff. If you know, please contrast what you're seeing (or what you know based on actual vote count) with 2008.

Blehzor mentioned that Pasco County, Florida, is providing real time information on who's voted, as far as R/D/I. Thusfar, Republicans are swamping Democrats 82,000 to 66,000.

In 2008, McCain won but fairly narrowly -- 110,000 to 104,000, or 51.2% to 47.7%.

I'm going to guess the 41,000 "Other" voters are breaking Romney 3:2 (or better) as well.

Just one county, of course. But it appears the enthusiasm gap is real.

Now, given the profile of Democrats, you have to figure that a greater proportion of them will be voting after work, instead of before.

But these are big numbers. Even ignoring the "Other" voters, even assuming all Democrats vote for Obama (surely there are more Democratic defectors than Republican defectors), in this one county, Team Red is already +10,000 over 2008.

Colorado: Lady in Black (who is voting with her ladyparts to send TFG packing) reports, via Rush Limbaugh's facebook page:

HUGE NEWS:

Arapahoe and JeffCo (swing CO counties that went Obama) have GOP outvoting D by substantial margin

More here.

Adams County, CO, is on track to go R for the first time since 1984.

Posted by: Ace at 12:01 PM | Comments (554)
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