Lot of things have changed since then, though.

Like, for example: Silver's preferred candidate losing the independent vote.

In almost every competitive general election, the party that loses the contest has also lost independent voters. This is because most people (although less so in gubernatorial elections) vote strictly along party lines: the Democrat might be all but guaranteed 80 to 90 percent of the Democratic vote, and the Republican 80 to 90 percent of the Republican vote. Except in certain regions of the country where one or another party encompasses a particularly wide range of ideologies (such as NY-23′s Republicans or vestigial “Solid South” Democrats), itÂ’s independents who swing the vote, since they represent the overwhelming majority of the votes which are up-for-grabs. This must necessarily be the case.

Meanwhile, Pew finds the election tied-- but Romney wins the turnout game, and leads on the most important issues (jobs, deficit).

76% of Republican votes say they are likely to vote this year, up 7 points from September. Democrats who say they are likely to vote is unchanged since September at 62%. Almost 40% of Democrats say they are unlikely to vote or are unregistered. This 14 point edge for the GOP on those likely to vote obviates any chance for the Democrats to again enjoy a large turnout advantage.

And Romney leads Independents by 8, 48-40.

Nate Silver just increased Obama's chances of winning to 1.21 gigawatts. Whatever that means.

Posted by: Ace at 12:34 PM | Comments (201)
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I'm not sure which is worse-- suggesting murder as a fun way to win elections, or the racist/demeaning ethnic, cultural, and sexual stereotypes of the "Liberal Heroes."

I'm pretty sure, though, that the media will find no offensiveness here. "A new tone" was always crap, just a convenient bludgeon with which to bash Republicans while pretending the concern was for a neutral value ("civility").

They reveal the fundamental lie at the heart of this despicable smear campaign every day. If they really had "New Tone" concerns, they'd say something about this.

But they don't, because it was never about "tone." It was about trying to stop the spread of the Tea Party.

Posted by: Ace at 12:23 PM | Comments (84)
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But he's determined to get all the facts out, he says.

He has not participated in the investigation. He is anticipating results that show us exactly what happened and who is responsible and what lessons we can learn from it and ensure it never happens again. He expects the investigation to be rigorous.

He needs an investigation to discover what orders he gave on the night of the attack?

Or when and why he refused additional security for the consulate?

Does he have Alzheimer's?

You do not need a "rigorous investigation" to do an hour-long search of the emails of the thirty or forty people involved in these decisions.

You simply need the will to do that search.

Which Obama doesn't have.

Wonder why.

Chris Stevens Called Washington... ...begging for help.

Why did it not come?

Does Obama need a "rigorous investigation" to determine who is the Command in Chief of the United States Armed Forces?

Posted by: Ace at 12:03 PM | Comments (211)
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Via R.S. McCain, Bob Menendez has a golden opportunity to clear this huge misunderstanding up but refuse to do so.

New Jersey GOP state Sen. Joe Kyrillos is demanding Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez release his schedule and all travel documents from this spring.

...

“Like the recent Secret Service sex scandal in Colombia, the allegations reported today are deeply disturbing and raise serious questions,” Kyrillos spokeswoman Meaghan Cronin said in a statement. “Senator Menendez must do the right thing and help settle this matter by immediately releasing his schedule and travel documents from the time the alleged incidents occurred. The people of New Jersey deserve answers today.”

Menendez spokeswoman Tricia Enright has refused to answer any questions on the subject. “We’re not going to respond to a completely false accusation,” she wrote by email.

Enright has not answered when asked if Menendez will release his travel records.

Maybe he's afraid his travel records were #hacked.

Posted by: Ace at 11:17 AM | Comments (266)
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Alert the It Gets Better campaign.

Posted by: Ace at 10:42 AM | Comments (180)
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These aren't all the polls. These are the good polls.

I don't feel completely hackish spotlighting them because I think that pollsters are calling anyone with a pulse a "likely voter," skewing results towards the Democrats. So I think results which show Romney tied or ahead are closer to predictive.

Rasmussen's apparently got a strong likely voter screen, as Bob Krumm wrote (linked in an earlier post).

Wisconsin: 49-49.

Iowa: 49-48, edge Romney.

Baseball Crank offers some more poll analysis at RedState.

My thesis, and that of a good many conservative skeptics of the 538 model, is that these internals are telling an entirely different story than some of the toplines: that Obama is getting clobbered with independent voters, traditionally the largest variable in any election and especially in a presidential election, where both sides will usually have sophisticated, well-funded turnout operations in the field. HeÂ’s on track to lose independents by double digits nationally, and the last three candidates to do that were Dukakis, Mondale and Carter in 1980. And heÂ’s not balancing that with any particular crossover advantage (i.e., drawing more crossover Republican voters than Romney is drawing crossover Democratic voters). Similar trends are apparent throughout the state-by-state polls, not in every single poll but in enough of them to show a clear trend all over the battleground states.

If you averaged Obama’s standing in all the internals, you’d capture a profile of a candidate that looks an awful lot like a whole lot of people who have gone down to defeat in the past, and nearly nobody who has won. Under such circumstances, Obama can only win if the electorate features a historically decisive turnout advantage for Democrats – an advantage that none of the historically predictive turnout metrics are seeing, with the sole exception of the poll samples used by some (but not all) pollsters. Thus, Obama’s position in the toplines depends entirely on whether those pollsters are correctly sampling the partisan turnout.

Which they're not.

Posted by: Ace at 10:35 AM | Comments (103)
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The cable went straight to Hillary Clinton's office.

"I really believe, having read it, that it is the smoking gun warning here. You've got this emergency meeting in Benghazi, less than a month before the attack. At that briefing, the people are told that there are ten, ten, Islamic militias and al-Qaeda groups in Benghazi. The consulate can not sustain a coordinated attack and they need extra help. This information goes directly to the office of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. So, again, you have the culpability of the State Department. This is a very specific warning that they're in trouble, they need help and they see an attack on the horizon," FOX News' Catherine Herridge reported on FOX News' "On the Record" Wednesday night.

The cable, reported yesterday, is damning.

Summarizing an Aug. 15 emergency meeting convened by the U.S. Mission in Benghazi, the Aug. 16 cable marked “SECRET” said that the State Department’s senior security officer, also known as the RSO, did not believe the consulate could be protected.

“RSO (Regional Security Officer) expressed concerns with the ability to defend Post in the event of a coordinated attack due to limited manpower, security measures, weapons capabilities, host nation support, and the overall size of the compound,” the cable said.

According to a review of the cable addressed to the Office of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Emergency Action Committee was also briefed "on the location of approximately ten Islamist militias and AQ training camps within Benghazi … these groups ran the spectrum from Islamist militias, such as the QRF Brigade and Ansar al-Sharia, to ‘Takfirist thugs.’” Each U.S. mission has a so-called Emergency Action Committee that is responsible for security measures and emergency planning.

...

In addition to describing the security situation in Benghazi as “trending negatively,” the cable said explicitly that the mission would ask for more help. “In light of the uncertain security environment, US Mission Benghazi will submit specific requests to US Embassy Tripoli for additional physical security upgrades and staffing needs by separate cover.”

Herridge says that she can't imagine a more specific warning, short of the terrorists emailing the time, place, and manner of the attack.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 09:24 AM | Comments (293)
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Here's a good rundown of the ad spending set for the rest of the campaign. Pro-Romney buys include Romney, RNC, American Crossroads, Restore Our Future, Crossroads GPS, Americans for Prosperity, American Future Fund, Americans for Jobs Security, NRA, and Concerned Women. Pro-Obama buys include Obama and Priorities USA. It's a little curious they only include one Obama PAC in this list, as I assume others and union groups are still spending. I can't say for sure, though.

Ohio - $30M total: Romney $18.4M, Obama $11.4M
Florida - $22M total: Romney $13.7M, Obama $8.4M
Virginia - $19.7M total: Romney $13.4M, Obama $6.3M
Pennsylvania - $13.7M total: Romney $10.8M, Obama $2.9M
Wisconsin - $10.8M total: Romney $7.8M, Obama $3M
Iowa - $9.8M total: Romney $6.7M, Obama $3M
Colorado - $8.9M total: Romney $5.5M, Obama $3.3M
Nevada - $8.5M total: Romney $5.6M, Obama $2.9M
New Hampshire - $7.0M total: Romney $4.7M, Obama $2.3M
Michigan - $5.7M total: Romney $5.2M, Obama $500k
Minnesota - $2.7M total: Romney $2.1M, Obama $550k
North Carolina - $3.4M total: Romney $1.9M, Obama $1.4M
New Mexico - $225k total: Romney $225k (ROF), Obama $0
Maine (Bangor) - $70k total: Romney $70k (ROF), Obama $0

As @slublog mentioned, $70k in ads for one targeted Maine district is actually a pretty healthy buy. Also take a look at the huge Romney advantage in the Rust Belt states, particularly Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan(!).

Posted by: JohnE. at 08:17 AM | Comments (355)
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Great video. It has an evangelistic purpose: It's designed (or hoped) to convert liberals.
more...

Posted by: Ace at 07:00 AM | Comments (323)
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I've been talking about loose voter screens for a while.

This guy, Bob Krumm, explains it well.

He has an actual tangible conclusion: For every ten extra percentage points of registered voters a poll deems "likely," Romney's share of the vote drops 1.7%, and Obama's increases 1.7%.

Thus, a poll with a tight voter screen, like Gallup's, has Romney out front with a strong +5 point lead, but a poll like IDB/TIPP, which says that 95% or so of all registered voters are "likely voters," has Romney down 2.

The plot makes for a pretty darned straight line (with a couple of polls away from the trendline).

Jay Cost was discussing this on Twitter last night, and I assume will be posting on the subject, because he seemed pretty hot and bothered about it.

Strong likely voter screens cost money, because pollsters wind up making more calls to get their quota.

But a weak likely voter screen -- like the simple question "How likely are you to vote?" -- is cheap. Because it lets in most people (most people say "very likely," even though that's not true).

And most polls actually use that weak sort of screen.

Posted by: Ace at 06:04 AM | Comments (246)
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