Happy Friday.

I have some numbers posts first today... First, this dude looked at the statements of 2012 House candidates (so *all* potential members of next year's House of Reps) and found bimodality both between the parties and within the parties. Confirmation, if we needed it, that there really is a Right and Middle wing to the GOP (and also a Left and Far Left wing among the Democrats).

Second, this guy finds evidence in Ohio that Obama's early voting turnout is merely cannibalizing high-propensity voters that would have turned out anyway, while Romney's early voting is turning out low-propensity voters.

Third, Jen Rubin takes a peek at the Romney campaign's internals, which find the same cannibalization effect in Iowa.

I wrote yesterday at the NYDN that Romney has good reason to be confident in the home stretch. That still looks true.

Romney is outspending Obama on ads in every state that's seeing presidential advertisements this week. All told, Romney and GOP groups are spending $80 million on ads this week, compared to Obama and Dems, who are only spending $50 million.

I know I already posted this, but Rev. Lowery's racism is still bugging me.

A second judge has granted a Catholic-owned business a preliminary injunction against the HHS contraception/abortifacent mandate. The right first step, but neither case has a merits decision yet.

New Jersey utilities crews turned away out-of-state crews sent from Alabama to help with Sandy recovery because the Alabama crews were not unionized.

As you know, there will be a BLS jobs report this morning at 8:30. My guess is that, whether the numbers are good or bad, they won't do much to change the election. Certainly the September and August reports didn't. That won't stop the media (and the twitter commentariat) from spending a few breathless hours on it before SQUIRREL!!

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:50 AM | Comments (532)
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That's right - I'm off to Germany next week for uh, business stuff yeah important business thingys and stuff. And of course it's purely coincidence that my parents will also be in Europe during the election along with all their assets.

So I may or may not be posting next week. Or returning. :-O

Ah who am I kidding - all the assets - the bass boat, the school bus, the silver dimes, vintage pr0n and the investment grade cubic zirconia - are still in the TN bunker. So I gotta come back for those.

It's Showtime Folks!

Now is when all the training and lifestyle discipline starts paying off. Gotta stay focused for a just a few more days.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 06:46 PM | Comments (704)
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Longtime AOS moron commenter Sassy asked me to pass along an invite to a moron meetup on Election Eve in the "Chicago Loop Area", which sounds like a biker/crossdresser hangout but whatever.

Details available at a yahoo board which you have to register for so they know you're not a very good stalker. 7pm startup. Details here.

I met Sassy once and she didn't kill me. So that's something, huh?

Also, let's take this opportunity to open up ideas for any morons who'd like to gather up on Election Night. Bring pudding and be with your friends.

I recommend butterscotch. Very creamy.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 04:43 PM | Comments (363)
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Harshing his mellow.

This administration is an embarrassment on foreign policy and incompetent at best on the economy – though a more careful analysis shows what can only be a perverse and willful attempt to destroy our prosperity. Back in January 2008, Barack Obama told the editorial board of the San Francisco Chronicle that under his cap-and-trade plan, “If somebody wants to build a coal-fired power plant, they can. It’s just that it will bankrupt them.” He added, “Under my plan … electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.” It was also in 2008 that Mr. Obama’s future Energy Secretary, Steven Chu, famously said it would be necessary to “figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe” – $9 a gallon.

Yet the president now claims heÂ’s in favor of oil development and pipelines, taking credit for increased oil production on private lands where heÂ’s powerless to block it, after he halted the Keystone XL Pipeline and oversaw a 50 percent reduction in oil leases on public lands.

These behaviors go far beyond “spin.” They amount to a pack of lies. To return to office a narcissistic amateur who seeks to ride this nation’s economy and international esteem to oblivion, like Slim Pickens riding the nuclear bomb to its target at the end of the movie “Dr. Strangelove,” would be disastrous.

Candidate Obama said if he couldnÂ’t fix the economy in four years, his would be a one-term presidency.

Mitt Romney is moral, capable and responsible man. Just this once, itÂ’s time to hold Barack Obama to his word. Maybe we can all do something about that, come Tuesday.

Instapundit has a longer quote, and if you like that, go to the source and Read the Whole Thing.

Nevada's going to be tough -- but it's still very possible (see about midway through article).

If things fall through, remember, there is always a chance of a late win in Nevada.

Posted by: Ace at 03:35 PM | Comments (337)
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As @johnekdahl puts it: It was decided from the first moments that this wasn't terrorism, because it would be politically harmful if it were terrorism.

So the joint force in charge of counter-terrorism was not convened. That would have created a paper trail.

And so four men died.

CBS News has learned that during the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. Mission in Benghazi, the Obama Administration did not convene its top interagency counterterrorism resource: the Counterterrorism Security Group, (CSG).

"The CSG is the one group that's supposed to know what resources every agency has. They know of multiple options and have the ability to coordinate counterterrorism assets across all the agencies," a high-ranking government official told CBS News. "They were not allowed to do their job. They were not called upon."

Information shared with CBS News from top counterterrorism sources in the government and military reveal keen frustration over the U.S. response on Sept. 11, the night ambassador Chris Stevens and 3 other Americans were killed in a coordinated attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya.

...

Counterterrorism sources and internal emails reviewed by CBS News express frustration that key responders were ready to deploy, but were not called upon to help in the attack.

...

Absent coordination from Counterterrorism Security Group, a senior US counterterrorism official says the response to the crisis became more confused. The official says the FBI received a call during the attack representing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and requesting agents be deployed....

...

Another senior counter terrorism official says a hostage rescue team was alternately asked to get ready and then stand down throughout the night, as officials seemed unable to make up their minds.

Gutsy call.

Posted by: Ace at 02:56 PM | Comments (319)
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That's what a local reporter says.

But let's vote for Gary Johnson or write-in Ron Paul. Because that's how we fight socialism.

Posted by: Ace at 02:43 PM | Comments (93)
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Well, that's my pitch. I'll let Bill Whittle make his own.

One of two people will be president for the next four years. One is a committed statist socialist and a would-be tyrant.

The other is not.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 02:09 PM | Comments (239)
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I meant to link this as part of the last post, but I forgot, because my brain is stupid and filled with dumbness.

But here it is.

FL, VA, and CO are looking very solid for Romney. NV remains within reach for Romney, but favors Obama ever-so-slightly.

WI, MI, IA, PA seem to be closing well for Romney. In WI, internal GOP polling shows Romney with a 1 point lead and gaining steam.

Posted by: Ace at 01:49 PM | Comments (210)
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A guy named @talldave7 wants people to understand something: Even if Romney loses a bunch of east/midwest states, he can still win if he wins Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.*

Only Nevada is a tough slog in that trio.

Just keep that in mind. I actually think we'll win Wisconsin, so we won't have to worry for too deep into the night. But even if that doesn't come to pass, Republicans in Colorado and Nevada can cinch the election for Romney.

So long as we grab Iowa. Which I once thought was a lost cause.

But Iowa is looking good.

An Iowa Republican tells me, “I have seen polling from a third-party group, three congressionals, our state Senate campaigns and state House campaigns — all using different pollsters, and ALL of them have Romney rising, and ALL of them have Romney with a 1 to 2 point lead.”

See the link for more details. The important things are that Republicans are overperforming in the early vote, and have cut Obama's lead in Democrats casting early votes by 75%. Obama still leads, but by a much smaller margin.

And, again, he's cannibalizing certain votes just to keep that padded edge:

• The Obama campaign is panicking, and you can see it in the way they are turning out their most reliable, most likely voters long before Election Day. They are using their highest propensity voters to pad their absentee and early vote numbers. Incredibly, half of Iowa Democrats who have voted in all four of the last four general elections have been made to request absentee ballots or vote early by the Obama campaign.

• The upshot is that Republicans have twice as many reliable, high propensity voters available on Election Day. Republicans already have a natural advantage on Election Day – after all, we invented the 72-Hour Program – which will only be larger in 2012 due to our record-shattering volunteer voter contact effort and the Democrats’ foolish decision to cannibalize their most reliable voters to pad their early voting figures.

* That actually gets him to a 269-269 tie, but then Romney would win in the House.

Plus, if he wins the very-gettable Maine-2 single EV, that would do it.

Pennsylvania Dreaming? Romney's on his way. And it's not just a head fake-- In 2008, Republicans led absentee voting by 2%, in a surprisingly narrow loss in an election Obama destroyed McCain in.

Today, Republicans lead by 18%.

Absentees are a small slice of the voting population, but they are suggestive of determination to vote in the broader population.

Posted by: Ace at 01:26 PM | Comments (147)
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Desperation. It smells.

But they're upping the ante. They're trying to shame people into donating.

“Joel, thanks: Here’s your total 2012 record of support,” was the subject line of an email from Jim Messina. The subject had no numerical figure because I haven’t donated to the campaign, a fact that Messina emphasized just a few sentences later.

“If we can’t fully fund our operations at this stage, it could be the difference between winning and losing,” he wrote. “According to our records associated with this exact email address, you haven’t given to this campaign yet. Don’t let this election come and go without doing your part — donate $5 or more for the final push.”

Posted by: Ace at 01:08 PM | Comments (127)
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