I thought 10% was the maximum he could lose, and still win.

From Hot Air (I thought I discovered this on my own, but clicking back, nope, Hot Air),13%, with 3% more undecided.

So, ultimately, somewhere between 13 and 16% will defect from Obama to Romney.

Obama won relatively big -- more than any Democratic president in recent memory -- but not so big he can afford that level of defection.

70 million voted for Obama in 2008; 60 million voted for McCain.

13% of 70 million is 9.1 million. Subtract that from 70 million and add it to 60 million and you get... Look, I don't do math. I'm just an unfrozen caveman blogger. Your strange world of magic scrawlings confuses me.

And this doesn't even count the independent advantage for Romney!

I can't see how this poll can be true, and yet Obama's tied in the Washington Post's head-to-head.

But again, unfrozen caveman blogger.

Bonus: I figured if Obama lost 10% of his support, Romney would win.

But actually Obama can only afford to lose less than that if his lost support mostly votes for Romney instead of just staying home.

My 10% figure was based (to the extent I base math on anything) on figuring that about 60% of Obama's lost votes would just stay home, and 40% would flip.

But if most of Obama's lost vote is actually voting Romney... well, he can afford fewer lost votes.

Oh Wait: It's wrong to say "And this doesn't even include Romney's advantage with Independents," because, actually, it does include that-- the independents who voted for Obama, but who are now defecting.

But what it doesn't include is much-higher enthusiasm among non-Obama voters in 2008. Many of whom stayed home that year.

Not this year, baby.

Not this year.

Posted by: Ace at 12:15 PM | Comments (369)
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They can't watch it on TV, of course. As they have no power. Or TVs. Or a house.

But maybe they'll hear rumors.

Meanwhile they have two massive generators, with a third in reserve, for the media's coverage of the marathon.

Deroy Murdock pens a gripping portrayal of lower Manhattan after the storm. It is not much of an exaggeration to call it apocalyptic.

There are a lot of people who just do not appreciate the wonders of a modern technological civilization. They romance primitivism. They talk about cutting our energy usage while running their TV's 8 hours a day and tapping into their internet-linked computers 16 hours a day.

Electricity and heat, they seem to think, are simply magic. They are Summoned, like friendly demons, when a switch is thrown.

They do not-- will not -- understand that this energy comes from someplace. Big-shouldered men dig it up from the earth. Clever-fingered men control its movements in enormous electric grids.

They also don't understand the thin Electric Blue Line that separates civilization from barbarism. People are crapping in hallways because their toilets are already filled and they can't flush their waste away.

That's not these people's fault at all -- when you have to go, you have to go, as wise men have long observed.

But a lot of people don't seem to understand that these commonplace elements of civilization didn't just happen. They happened because people built them, and maintain them, and people only had the money to pay for such things because we are -- or at least have been -- a prosperous nation.

Without that, we're like most other nations throughout the impoverished, wanting, miserable history of nations.

It's easy to romanticize Third World primitivism so long as you only see it on TV, or visit it briefly as part of a pampered junket. Once you live in it a little bit, one gains an appreciation for the little things -- which aren't so little at all -- long taken for granted.

I suppose it's wrong to politicize this but I have long thought Barack Obama represents the triumph of decadence. He just doesn't see the connection between coal mines in Ohio and power in Staten Island. He's been so insulated in his bubble of privilege he's never even had occasion to wonder what it is, exactly, that makes his TV glow when he turns it on.

I've long had a theory that when you look at the various professions and occupations, those which are "dirtier" -- those which have a direct, tangible connection to the gritty reality of the world -- skew conservative, while those which are "cleaner" -- occupations which are largely performed on a computer monitor, or deal only with abstractions -- skew liberal.

Obama has lived in that latter world, and only that latter world, his whole life.

So has Michael Bloomberg.

They both eat steak but would be sickened to see a cow slaughtered. They both benefit from a technologically-advanced world running on power extracted, ultimately, from the blood and bone of the earth, but despise the mechanisms of energy creation.

They prefer just not to think about it too much. And because they've always been so insulated from "A" -- where it all starts -- and have only lived in the world of "B" -- where the electricity-demons run to, to heat homes and light the streets -- they've never had to think about it too much.

While they blather about "reducing our carbon footprint," they ignore the fact that, right now, Lower Manhattan is living a low-carbon footprint lifestyle.

And its carbon footprint will be reduced further as people -- inconvenient, energy-addicted people -- die.

This is the preferred future of Al Gore and his fellow primitives.

Posted by: Ace at 11:30 AM | Comments (390)
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I've been resisting this notion, but Obama drew out new voters, didn't he?

So why shouldn't it be that this election we'll see some of our own new voters?

I keep thinking about the Night of the Living Dead in Ohio in 2004. Kerry thought he had won Ohio -- but then the returns came in from the Bush counties. And came in. And came in. And came in. A storm of unexpected Republican votes just kept coming in, first equaling his tally from the cities, then surpassing it.

Liberals called it The Night of the Living Dead, because the zombies -- eh, I'll take it; we determined and plain of purpose -- just kept marching in to the polls.

Daniel Henninger thinks evangelicals might make their might known on November 6.

Back in April, the policy director of the Southern Baptist Convention, Richard Land, predicted that evangelicals in time would coalesce behind Mitt Romney. Yesterday he endorsed Mr. Romney, the first time he has done so for any presidential candidate.

Ralph Reed, the president of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, has been spending a lot of time in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the belief that evangelical support for Mr. Romney could be decisive. He notes that when George W. Bush won Ohio in 2004, the Kerry camp thought their dominance of Democratic Cuyahoga County around Cleveland had the state locked up. But Mr. Bush's solid support in evangelical-dominated counties from Cincinnati to the West Virginia border carried Ohio by two percentage points. [The Night of the Living Dead -- ace.]

...

Mr. Reed notes that in several opinion polls—NBC, Pew and ABC—the percentage of evangelicals claiming to support Mr. Romney has been in the mid-70s. "We estimate that in 2008 there were 350,000 evangelicals who didn't vote in Ohio," Mr. Reed says. "Obama carried the state by 260,000." If that support of 70% or more holds for Mr. Romney in Ohio, and if the share of the evangelical vote increases by a point or two, then the challenger could carry the Buckeye State.

...

The president of Ohio Christian University, Mark A. Smith, says, "The intensity of voters in the faith community is as high as I've seen it in the last 12 years." The driver of that intensity is religious liberty....

Mr. Smith says that if evangelicals in Ohio's rural communities repeat their turnout levels from 2000 and 2004, they will offset the Obama advantage in Cuyahoga County. "Six different faith groups are out there" for Romney in Ohio, he says. "That didn't happen the last time."

Ben Domenech coins a term -- I think he coins it -- an "undertow election." Unlike a wave, you aren't aware of the the undertow until it grabs you by the ankle and pulls you down.

[A]s much as I question their strategic minds, it's been clear from day one that Romney's operational prowess is second to none, and getting out the vote isn't a question of strategy but operation. Even given that the state Republican parties are shouldering much of this effort, and even given all the advantages Team Obama was likely to have in that arena, if Team Romney could end up close to matching them in this respect, we could be looking at an undertow election like none we've seen before. This would reflect not so much a groundswell as a cave-in, one where independents did not shift to Romney but away from Obama, where the bottom truly drops out of the Obama effort, and the story the left focuses on for the next year is why in the world those people stayed home.

If this happens, it won't be a late night after all.

Michael Barone sees Romney playing well in affluent suburbs of the midwest better than any other Republican candidate within the past twenty years.

Cultural affinity is important; a lot of northerners or midwesterners didn't like Bush simply because of his southern/Texas identity. The same reason a lot of southern conservatives were suspicious of Romney -- he seemed of a different culture -- is the same reason suburbanites in Pennsylvania and Ohio (and Minnesota, and Michigan) might give him a whirl.

The only way Pennsylvania and Michigan can be close is if Obama's support in affluent Philadelphia and Detroit suburbs has melted away.

This also helps explain why Romney still narrowly trails in Ohio polls. Affluent suburban counties cast about one-quarter of the votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan but only one-eighth in Ohio.

A pro-Romney affluent swing is confirmed by the internals of some national polls. The 2008 exit poll showed Obama narrowly carrying voters with incomes over $75,000. Post-debate Pew Research and Battleground polls have shown affluent suburbanite Romney carrying them by statistically significant margins.

In particular, college-educated women seem to have swung toward Romney since Oct. 3.

Rasmussen Ohio: 49-49.

Posted by: Ace at 10:52 AM | Comments (352)
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The early vote is down 15% in Obama's bread-and-butter cities of Cleveland and Cincinnati. (Well, Toledo and Youngstown are also bread and butter, and more Democratic, but they're smaller, and have less votes available.)

On the Thursday before Election Day in 2008, 4,583 people voted early in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, which includes Cleveland.

This was a stronghold for the Obama campaign; on Election Day, Obama carried the county 69 percent to 30 percent for John McCain.

Yesterday 2,963 people voted.

Again, some of that may be because of people being preoccupied with cleaning up storm damage, etc. But overall, by this point in 2008, 39,110 Cuyahoga County residents had voted early. As of Thursday, 33,140 have — about a 15 percent drop. And note that the early voting was ahead of the 2008 pace until Saturday.

The implication is that while Obama has a super-dedicated cadre of cultists who did in fact turn out to vote early, they're not such a big group, and now that they've voted, the returns are coming in slowly. So he's banked his Cultist vote, and now he's collecting fewer of them. And presumably will be lose the Election Day vote.

It's a good tea leaf, as far as tea leaves go.

230,000 fewer Democrats have voted in Ohio than voted early in 2008. Note, though, that there are still four days left of early voting, but this applies to our figures too, and Republican early voting is up 40,000 over 2008, for a net +270,000 swing to Republicans.

And Obama only won the state in 2008 by just shy of 260,000 votes.

Karl Rove made his 51-48 prediction in the Wall Street Journal (Romney wins).

I thought his analysis of Ohio was the most heartening part.

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama's 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.

Democrats explain away those numbers by saying that they are turning out new young Ohio voters. But I asked Kelly Nallen, the American Crossroads data maven, about this. She points out that there are 12,612 GOP "millennials" (voters aged 18-29) who've voted early compared with 9,501 Democratic millennials.

Are Democrats bringing out episodic voters who might not otherwise turn out? Not according to Ms. Nallen. She says that about 90% of each party's early voters so far had also voted in three of the past four Ohio elections. Democrats also suggest they are bringing Obama-leaning independents to polls. But since Mr. Romney has led among independents in nine of the 13 Ohio polls conducted since the first debate, the likelihood is that the GOP is doing as good a job in turning out their independent supporters as Democrats are in turning out theirs.

By the way, if Ohio is tight, we might not have a winner until after November 17th.

That's because people who requested, and were sent, an absentee ballot can actually just go to the polls instead. But Ohio law then requires those ballots to be provisional, and only counted after making sure that the voter didn't try to vote twice.

And those ballots will not be counted until November 17th.

And wouldn't that be fun.

Personally, I think I'd go on vacation, and just not think about it for ten days. I don't know how much more I want to take of this.

And if today's close polls are bringing you down, cast your eyes back to 2008, when they weren't close at all.

We're doing well. I'd rather be doing better, but we're doing well.

Posted by: Ace at 09:51 AM | Comments (437)
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"Four more days! Four more days!" more...

Posted by: Ace at 09:15 AM | Comments (289)
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Fun video.

Near the end (second clip), he talks about his fear that the American way of life is vanishing, and his talk with Jon Voight that inspired him to speak at the RNC. They were sitting around, "commiserating about the economy," when Voight asked, "Why doesn't anyone in Hollywood ever say anything?"

At that point Eastwood agreed, yes, we're being "chickens."

He also talks about the now-famous empty chair and how he came up with it. He just suggested it, off the top of his head. He's kind of funny and self-effacing about it.

Posted by: Ace at 08:40 AM | Comments (169)
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The only reason Obama is even in this thing is because of the media's steadfast embargo of any story like this.

Can you imagine if this were Bush's car? Well, if it were Bush's car, that's what we'd know it as. Bush's Car. Bush's Folly. The Burning Bushmobile.

Approximately 16 of the $100,000+ Fisker Karma extended-range luxury hybrids were parked in Port Newark, New Jersey last night when water from Hurricane SandyÂ’s storm surge apparently breached the port and submerged the vehicles. As Jalopnik has exclusively learned, the cars then caught fire and burned to the ground.

Our source tells us they were “first submerged in a storm surge and then caught fire, exploded.” This wouldn’t be the first time the vehicles, which use a small gasoline engine to charge batteries that provide energy to two electric motors, had an issue with sudden combustion.

Great cars. You just can't get them wet. No problem, then. We'll just have to make sure they never get, um, outdoors.

Posted by: Ace at 07:28 AM | Comments (416)
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Via Hot Air, New York City -- and large swaths of New Jersey, too -- are currently wastelands without power, food, or drivable roads.

I just returned from Manhattan. I ran for 5 hours with stops, covering 12 miles in total, scoping the island from west to east. You will not hear these stories from the Mayor or Governor; these are my observations, informed by discussions with real people who live in lower Manhattan:

1) Virtually every retailer, restaurant and grocery store south of 38th street is CLOSED. This is in an area covering 8 square miles. I only observed a handful of bodegas in Soho and the East Village, along with Ben’s Pizza on W3rd and MacDougal serving customers. Whole Foods Union Square had a sign reading “because there is no electricity, we cannot open.” There is no food, other than what you have in your refrigerator.

2) To that point, there are close to 400,000 people living below 38th street without power. The mayor earlier said it could be 3 days without power; some Con Ed guys I spoke with in the East Village think it could be longer. Nobody knows.

3) No working traffic lights in this region (drivers are generally being cautious and appropriately yielding to pedestrians). Apartment stairwells are pitch black. High rises have no elevator access.

...

5) There is no running water or flushing toilets for people living in the Jacob Riis Houses and surrounding NYCHA buildings on the Lower East Side. In my estimate, this is roughly 20,000 people. One family I spoke with is packing their bags and moving to Brooklyn until services are restored. But it did not appear that all residents were evacuating, even as their toilets did not flush.

6) I did not witness a single Red Cross Truck or FEMA Vehicle or in lower Manhattan. Recall the assistance these agencies provided after 9/11 - this is NOT HAPPENING. There are bound to be hundreds of elderly people, rich and poor, who live on the upper floors of buildings with elevators that are now disabled. IF POWER IS NOT RESTORED, THIS WILL MOVE FROM BEING AN ECONOMIC DISASTER TO A HUMANITARIAN DISASTER.

...

9) The water from the storm surge was invariably contaminated - floating garbage, wood pieces from the dock, and possibly sewage. One Nuyorican woman who lived on Avenue C near 12th street noted the water level peaked above her waist. She was still visibly shaken this afternoon. She also recalled a huge noise at 8 pm when the substation failed. The sky, in her words, turned from black to green.

In New Jersey, entire sections of the shore were essentially wiped off the map by the storm. Flotsam and broken timbers are left behind. Beach towns are are now just beaches.

Staten Island -- part of New York City that rarely gets much media coverage, as reporters don't live there -- is devastated. At least 19 people are dead; they'll probably find more bodies.

Watch the video there. FEMA's not in Staten Island, by the way. I remember the media being very angry at George Bush for not directing FEMA to New Orleans in a manner they judged timely.

But the outrage is growing. Despite my snipe that reporters don't typically cover Staten Island, NBC covered it (!!!), and they did note the anger growing at the slowness of relief efforts.

And old people are still on high floors of buildings without working elevators, or food, or sufficient emergency response.

And where's Obama? Well, he put in his appearance, said a few Magic Words, and returned to the campaign trail, with laurels around his neck for doing... nothing.

And Michael Bloomberg? He's endorsing candidates, attending basketball games (can't miss the Brooklyn Nets' first game), hosting the marathon, and generally being a twat, as usual.

Walter Russell Mead makes a great point, excerpted at Hot Air.

Admittedly, getting public support and finding the money for flood protection would be hard, but it is exactly that kind of hard job that governments are supposed to do. Leadership is getting the important things done, not looking busy on secondary tasks while the real needs of the city go quietly unmet.

The problem with nanny state governance isnÂ’t just that itÂ’s intrusive. It isnÂ’t just that it stifles business with over-regulation, and it isnÂ’t just that it empowers busybodies and costs money. ItÂ’s that it distracts government from the really big jobs that it ought to be doing.

Mayor Bloomberg has done an admirable job under great pressure as the city reels from Sandy’s attack. But an ounce of prevention beats a pound of cure. The city needed flood protection for its subways and electricity grid—and it didn’t get it. If the Mayor had spent less time and less of his political capital focusing on minutiae, this storm could have played out very differently.

Allah ads his wrath:

Whether global warming contributed to Sandy or not, an AGW true believer in a position of power should have had special concerns about flooding and protecting infrastructure. To preach it and not act is as silly as a guy running for reelection on his terrorist ass-kicking credentials refusing to consult his counterterror team during a terrorist attack. But then, this is the myth of Bloomberg the visionary manager. The days-long power outage in Queens that I endured six years ago also happened on his watch; he could have used that as a catalyst to make upgrading the city’s old power grid his cause celebre, but he’s much more of a guns-and-Big-Gulps sort of “visionary” than a guy concerned with keeping the lights on and the trains running.

There's an old observation that as long as you endorse Democrats, you can say all sorts of racially-edgy and misogynistic things and you're fine. You've got your ticket punched. You're up to date on your tithings to the church of Political Correctness.

Let's add an addendum to that: So long as you talk up Global Warming you are freed entirely from any responsibility to take sufficient precautions against storms, and all responsibility for managing their aftermath, too.

After all, you're against hurricanes. You're on record as being against hurricanes. If it were up to you, hurricanes wouldn't even exist.

So you can skip on flood protection or upgrading your power generation and transmission, and you can jet off to Vegas during a crisis (again) or meet with the swells gathered for the New York City marathon instead of seeing to relief efforts.

You believe in Global Warming, and you yap some words about it sporadically. You are therefore disburdened of actually having to take any actions before, during, or after storms.

You're against storms.

You said so on TV and everything.

It's not your problem.

Now put down that Big Gulp and come quietly.

Posted by: Ace at 06:45 AM | Comments (325)
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"We're gonna die! We're gonna freeze! We've got 90-year-old people!"-A Staten Island resident who doesn't appreciate how important the NYC Marathon is.

There are no words to describe Michael Bloomberg's decision to allow the NYC Marathon to be run as scheduled this Sunday. If there were they would include, callous, despicable, contemptible and criminal. But those words do not convey the level of stupidity and cruelty involved.

Each year the NYC Marathon starts its five borough tour of the city on Staten Island. Right now Staten Island is a disaster area in every sense of the term. The majority of the deaths in NYC from Sandy happened on Staten Island and vast swaths of the Island (which is essentially a barrier island for Manhattan) are still flooded, homes have been destroyed, people are missing (door to door searches for the dead haven't begun yet) and survivors have been left with out food, water and shelter.

Just yesterday the bodies of two young boys who were ripped from their mother's arms by raging floodwater were discovered.

The heartbreaking discovery came as residents and public officials complained that help has been frustratingly slow to arrive on stricken Staten Island, where 19 have been killed — nearly half the death toll of all of New York City.

Garbage is piling up, a stench hangs in the air and mud-caked mattresses and couches line the streets. Residents are sifting through the remains of their homes, searching for anything that can be salvaged.

"We have hundreds of people in shelters," said James Molinaro, the borough's president. "Many of them, when the shelters close, have nowhere to go because their homes are destroyed. These are not homeless people. They're homeless now."

Molinaro complained the American Red Cross "is nowhere to be found" — and some residents questioned what they called the lack of a response by government disaster relief agencies.

A relief fund is being created just for storm survivors on Staten Island, Molinaro and former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani said Friday. And Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Federal Emergency Management Agency Deputy Administrator Richard Serino planned to tour the island.

These stories are not unique to Staten Island but are being repeated across the city and the region, yet Michael "No salt or Transfats" Bloomberg wants to have a party.

The people crying for help aren't idiots, they may or not have had emergency supplies on hand, but it doesn't matter. Anything they had is gone. It was all washed away by the sea that left nothing behind but destruction and misery. This isn't about the reaction of the government, it's about not hampering relief efforts in the middle of a disaster. Make no mistake, the disaster is ongoing in many places and will be for days and weeks.

I'm a "life must go on" guy but it must go on AFTER everyone has been not made whole but at least has received basic emergency aid. It goes on AFTER a relief supply system has been put in place. It goes AFTER everyone has been found and AFTER the dead are buried.

What Michael Bloomberg is doing is putting the NYC Marathon over the health and well being of the people of New York City.

There are people without food, water and clothing across New York City today. All of those things will be handed out to runners on Sunday. Might there not be a better use for those vital supplies? If you have no food or water I guess you need to sign up for the marathon to get some.

It takes a small army of volunteers to put on an event like this. Might not these volunteers be asked to do some relief work instead? How much more could be done with that kind of effort? How many lives made better?

There are reports that police are being forced to give up their off day to work the marathon. These cops have been working almost non-stop since last weekend. For many this would have been their first day off, their first chance to care for their own needs and tend to family and friends. But no, the race must go on!

And what about firefighters, doctors, EMS, sanitation workers and on and on and on who are necessary to put this event on? How in the world can one justify putting a single person on marathon duty when so much is to be done and so many need help?

Right now all city parks are closed but Central Park will be ready to host the finish according to organizers. What resources are being used to get the park in shape that could be used clearing debris to open streets and help get power back on?

But hey Mayor no rush on getting anything done. It's not like there's the chance of another winter storm hitting the area next week. Oh wait.

Staten Island is...an island. There are four bridges that connect it to the rest of the world (3 to NJ and one to Brooklyn). The only connection to the rest of NYC is the Verrazano Narrows Bridge, that bridge is also the starting point of the marathon. Every minute that bridge is closed even partially to accommodate runners and it's closed for hours) is a minute supplies aren't getting through.

This isn't about people's feeling or if it's "too soon" to get back to normalcy. It's about New York Road Runners Club and Michael Bloomberg WILLFULLY hampering relief efforts. If one ounce of relief material is delayed for one second getting to a person in need, Michael Bloomberg should be put in jail.

Added: This guy gets it.

Richard Nicotra, who owns the Hilton Garden Inn in Bloomfield, said those who have been displaced by the hurricane can stay as long as necessary. Marathon runners are unhappy that he will not honor their reservations, but Nicotra said he will not ask the evacuees to leave.

“How do I tell people that have no place to go, that have no home, that have no heat, that you have to leave because I need to make room for somebody that wants to run the marathon,” Nicotra said. “I can’t do that.”

Nobody HAS to run a marathon. A lot of life is getting your priorities right. Putting a recreational activity ahead of life and death needs is never the right priority.

Update 2: Are you FUCKING kidding me?

As hundreds of thousands of Big Apple residents suffer in homes left without power by Hurricane Sandy, two massive generators are being run 24/7 in Central Park — to juice a media tent for Sunday’s New York City Marathon.

And a third “backup” unit sits idle, in case one of the generators fails.

The three diesel-powered generators crank out 800 kilowatts — enough to power 400 homes in ravaged areas like Staten Island, the Rockaways and downtown Manhattan.

Be a real shame if a mob showed up and put them to good use.

Posted by: DrewM at 06:00 AM | Comments (288)
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This is it. Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday is all that stands between us and a second Obama term.

I stopped by my local victory center last night to pick up literature. The place was packed with people making calls. At this point in 2008 the place was empty. People do not show up to volunteer if they think a candidate is going to lose. Our victory centers are packed.

It is not too late to help the Romney campaign. Actually, this is the best time to get out and volunteer. This is when the election will be won or lost. This is when the undecided or lazy voters are making their final decisions. more...

Posted by: Pixy Misa at 05:30 AM | Comments (158)
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