49-49 among likelies, a small 49-47 Bush edge among registered.

And the effects of the debate aren't over yet. This movement is coming earlier and stronger than most pundits, including myself, expected.

I've already said it, but, again, before this thing is over, I'm going to have a heart attack.

Before anyone goes all to pieces, though, bear in mind that Bush's lead was just as ephemeral and soft as Kerry's momentum is at the moment. I think Kerry did himself some real good -- good that won't dissipate, and increased support that will remain permanent -- but that's only a fraction of the current shift of support.

Bush was up, then Kerry, then Bush, now Kerry (sort of). Voter sentiment does seem to be pretty volatile, and votes seem to swing according to whoever's getting the best press of the week. The winner might just be the man who has the last good news before the election.

Or the man who makes the next-to-last-mistake.

The most important effect of Kerry's bounce is on bloggers. Josh Marshall is going to be whistling Zippitty-doo-dah out of his ass, while a lot of conservatives are going to go into a bitter funk for a couple of weeks.

Not me, though.

I'm the blogger with an optimistic vision for the election.

Posted by: Ace at 05:03 PM | Comments (42)
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Well, looks like Hoke Malokey has stepped out of the Big Boy Chair and turned the blog back over to my sole control.

I'd like to thank him for stepping in on such short notice to post fun new content here. He also seemed to have created some controversy with his "Why Bush Will Lose" post, which is fine with me too. When you want to attract attention, start a fight, as the man says.

At any rate, thanks so much, Hoke. I hope you enjoyed it. It's a bit hard to blog on the weekend, what with personal obligations and all. Much easier to cheat an employer out of paid-time during the week.

Posted by: Ace at 12:54 PM | Comments (4)
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Good to have you back.

The con is yours.

Posted by: Ace at 10:00 AM | Comments (3)
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Greg sent that by.

This is Ace, by the way. I'm just posting to try to dispell some of the stench of defeatism Hoke just farted all over my site.

I wanted to mention that he tends to be a little pessimistic.

But great job, Hoke. Thanks for subbing. And feel free to continue posting throughout the day.

Update: Sometimes a little pessimism is warranted, of course-- Newsweek shows Kerry back out ahead.

Ahem. I didn't really want to overstate it too much, but I feared that. Kerry was at his best in that debate and Bush was at his near-worst.

Another Update: Okay, there is once again the now-obligatory debate over the partisan divisions in Newsweek's sample, but now from the right.

As has been hashed out here and other places before: Partisan ID does in fact vary. When people like the Democrats more, they're more inclined to call themselves Democrats. When people like Republicans more, they're more inclined to call themselves Republicans. So you just can't freeze partisan ID at certain levels and say that's an accurate reflection of the electorate.

All the "new Republicans" previous polls found were very soft "Republicans," people who'd been inspired to call themselves Republicans because of a variety of events (SwiftVets, convention, John Kerry's inability to say anything at all). The "new Democrats" in this poll are equally soft, and can at any time drop that newly-announced affiliation like a bad habit (which, of course, it is).

I don't know how accurate Newsweek is generally-- I always think it skews in favor of Democrats -- but, assuming its results are confirmed by other polls, I think we have to accpet that there has in fact been a shift in voter sentiment. That sentiment can shift back, but the days of an easy Bush landslide are now history.

At least for the moment.

Posted by: Ace at 09:23 AM | Comments (19)
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to get Nader to drop out

Jerry Rubin, 60, said he plans to consume only liquids from Saturday until Nov. 2 if Nader doesn't take a meeting with him.

Since when did foregoing salad and dessert become a hunger strike? It's like Sharpton at Vieques, on a "hunger strike" while sucking down Chunky's Hearty Stew.

And 30 days? Bobby Sands went 65 days. And he wasn't chugging PowerAdes or Boosts. He wasn't eating porridge either.

And if Rubin is on a hunger strike to get Nader out . . .

What's her cause? More Joey?

Posted by: Ace at 07:58 AM | Comments (3)
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New Uptown Girl Lika' Da' Meataballa'

I'm shocked.

"You Gonna' Finish Those Goobers?"

Posted by: Ace at 07:23 AM | Comments (5)
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Hoke here.

I don't know when or if I will be with you again. Ace intimates that he is pleased with my work, but he's also a jealous, petulant type, and if he feels I've usurped him in any way, he will slice like a fu**ing hammer.

Here are some thoughts, presuming I won't be subbing again before the election.

Bush will lose. It will be very close, but he will lose for the following reasons.

1) He's been debilitated over four years by a steady drumbeat of media bias and vicious antipathy on the part of the opposition. Florida assured the Democrats would come back strong in four years, but Bush himself - the embodiment of all that Red America swagger, stupidity and salvation - drove the Democrats to vile acts.

2) We are more like Spain than we want to imagine. The towers fall, and there are flags on every overpass. Even Neil Young pens a tune. We always flourish in the moment. The moment now is extended, however, and that means the dirty job of continuing the fight through preemption. al Zarqawi recognizes this, and if we have an American man or, God forbid, a woman, pleading for his or her life just before decapitation, it will have the same effect as the Madrid bombings. Enough of us will want to change the channel and the alternative will be Kerry.

3) We're a mortician's society, examining the dead instead of proactively seeking to enhance life. This means that no good in our actions can be countenanced, all bad must be exhumed, and the future is irrelevant.

4) Bush is tired. His most endearing quality last time out was when he told a flabbergasted Diane Sawyer that if he lost, life would go on, and he was sincere (in contrast, Gore has a massive breakdown and has now become Peter Finch-meets-Marlon Brando). His "smirks" in the first debate were nothing of the sort. He was a man who has many responsibilities looking at a guy whose only responsibility was trying to win an election.

5) There is a script. The script called for the decimation of Howard Dean because Dean screamed. It was funny, but it was also cruelly unfair. The new script calls for a Comeback Kid.

6) Kerry's adoption of 75 positions may have been more clever than folks imagine. He has a hardcore "Bush is a Nazi, Bible-thumpin' moron" posse. He just needs to get a few more to cross over, and in the end, he'll be able to "HYPNOTIZE!" enough of them to win. It is important to understand that his people get in a room and say "Okay, what should we say about Iraq today that might get us votes?" They are not talking about altering adjectives. They are talking about altering verbs and nouns.

7) We're weak. We've lost 1000 good people in Iraq, and we're at the end of our tether. As a nation, it is easier for us to lose 3,000 through inattention in the form of victimhood than proaction in the form of changing the world. At heart, we want to go back to lobbing missiles from afar as policy.

Posted by: Ace at 05:59 AM | Comments (32)
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Hoke just got back from Shaun of the Dead. Pretty funny, never scary, runs out of gas at the end, but still, some very good yucks.

Also, the zombies are pretty convincing when eating human flesh

Not this convincing--

But convincing nonetheless.

Posted by: Ace at 06:50 PM | Comments (2)
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Very hot, if this is coming from, say . . .

Gina Gershon.

Not quite the same when the speaker is

Scalia on Amore de Groupa

Posted by: Ace at 11:01 AM | Comments (15)
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Apparently, this site had too many consecutive posts that did not mention Dan Rather. Hoke had the Con. The whole friggin' ship went on Red Alert.

Reporting to you live -- Bill "I kid you not, the Gettysburg Address was faxed from Lancaster" Burkett has a web site

Burkett's Site

It has been reported to Ace by one of his men on the ground that the site is authentic. Indeed, at one point, there were letters from Burkett's son railing on CBS, defending his father and soliciting contributions via PayPal, but those have been taken down.

The site, however, is powered by RadioLeft and created by Geoff Staples, a long-time Democrat activist, who is Program Director of RadioLeft, website owner of RadioLeft, and has had past interviews with Burkett. Staples also acts as Web Host for the Dallas County Democratic Party, where he is a Precinct Chairman. He is also a member of the Progressive Populist Caucus of the Texas Democratic Party, which is led by David Van Os.

Burkett. Van Os. Barnes. Staples. Cleland. Lockhart. Mapes. Rather.

That's a thick soup of eels.

Posted by: Ace at 07:26 AM | Comments (3)
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