The liberals were horrified to see voters in red counties just turning out and turning out and voting and voting. I thought it would never stop, one was quoted as saying. "It was like Night of the Living Dead."

In one of the reddest of counties in Missouri, twice as many voters showed up as expected, and they've run out of ballots -- an hour before the polls close.

It's a "mob scene," reports say.

On one hand, it seems a lot of GOP voters will have trouble actually voting.

On the other hand, that's some serious turnout.

Posted by: Ace at 04:24 PM | Comments (48)
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Not to be all in the tank or anything, but FoxNews just said the national exit poll consortium has concerns about the Virginia numbers.

If Virginia's numbers are unreliable, it seems likely that most of the numbers are bad.

Geraghty says the GOP base turned out, which ought to be enough to hold the Senate, at least.

And he says, as I sort of said earlier, that any exit poll showing a Dem lead of seven or less is really a dead heat -- or a Republican victory.

PS... The "exit polls" from Connecticut showed Joe Lieberman up by a mere three points.

If you believe that, then indeed, America woke up to become a left-liberal country this morning, and it's going to be a bloodbath.

If you don't believe that... well, then these polls mean precisely what they did in 2004: A chance for liberals to strut and preen before hard, tabulated vote totals begin coming in.

Posted by: Ace at 04:09 PM | Comments (17)
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They're just filling. Brit Hume says that actual counted votes are now subject to being counted first by a central clearing house, thus delaying the delivery of raw vote counts.

So they don't have any information, and probably won't for a while.

So Brit Hume is just begging people to talk about nothing.

Posted by: Ace at 04:05 PM | Comments (12)
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Thanks to the commeter who suggested this.

Posted by: Ace at 03:59 PM | Comments (13)
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To put an exclamation point on it, these are just exit polls. They are polls. They are subject to the same pro-Democratic skew as telephone calls. Perhaps more so -- Kerry was winning Pennsylvania, according to the exit polls, by a far greater lead than even telelphone polls had indicated. (And both overstated the Democratic lead -- exit polls moreso.)

With Santorum behind, supposedly, by 23, we can assume he's toast, if we can also assume these numbers are even accurate -- which we can't. Different people are being leaked different numbers.

Anyone "behind," supposedly, by eight or less in these polls is very much still in it. Again, even assuming the polls are real numbers, and not skewed figures selectively leaked to not-terribly-professional bloggers in order to depress Republican turnout.

William Kristol, A Real Eeyore, is surprisingly chipper, and notes that exit polls tend to skew +7 or so for Democrats.

The Fox Decision Desk is "skeptical" of these exit polls.

Juan Williams believes these numbers implicitly -- they've taken safeguards to prevent 2004 again! -- but then, he was just on Cloud Nine at this time in 2004, too.

There's just no way to avoid the fact that Republicans just don't feel like sharing their views with a plucky, perky young American Studies co-ed who pretty much is wearing a NARAL advertisement across her forehead.

Posted by: Ace at 03:32 PM | Comments (57)
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Just on FoxNews. Hastert, apparently, sending out the word.

Rumors, of course.

And "Corruption" is being cited as the most important issue by those interviewed in exit polls.

I don't imagine they have William Jefferson in mind.

More... Of course the exit polls keep being leaked to liberal outfits.

HuffPo now claims all Dems ahead in the Senate, except in Tennessee and Arizona.

Via the New York Observer, Karol says Casey clobbering Santorum by 23, Steele just behind Cardin, etc.

Again, bear in mind John Kerry's wondrous seven hour presidency in 2004.

And, bear in mind: these "leaked exit polls" disagree with each other.

AP... has released those stupid lesser-question exit poll results, the ones where they don't say, exactly, who's winning, but tell you "what's on the voter's mind," which of course immediately telegraphs who's winning anyway.

Again, according to the exit polls -- very, very wrong in 2004 -- the mood of the voters today does not bode well for the Pubbies.

But... ALF notes that several of the polls show the Republicans behind, but not by much, and absentee voter advantage ought to be enough to overcome those smallish deficits.

And, Again... Anyone who buys into these numbers too much after 2004 is just silly.

Remember John Kerry taking Pennsylvania by 20+ points?

Good times, good times.

Posted by: Ace at 03:11 PM | Comments (22)
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At TNR's Plank.

Bad news, as I was just expecting (see update at last post).

This could all be bullshit, and even if these are the numbers, they don't necessarily reflect the actual voting.

D/R

OH: 63.7/36.3

CT: 47.6/44.5 (Lieberman[!])

NJ: 59.7/42.1

TN: 50/50

RI: 55.4/44.6

VA: 55.8/44.2

MO: 53.3/46.7

Nothing for MT, AZ or MD yet.

On the other hand: Red State is claiming the voting is "very close." Total raw voting is a "dead heat."

Not sure what that means.

The latter thanks to Alabama Liberation Front, who has some fun with Kos' predictions.

Posted by: Ace at 03:02 PM | Comments (18)
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Chris Matthews is beaming like Christmas came early.

On the other hand, he's talking up MoveOn.org's $250,000 bounty for information leading to a conviction on voter suppression charges... why talk up cheatin' if you're winnin' it?

As most people know, you can kinda-sorta guage what the still embargoed numbers are saying based on the MSM's body-language and chipperness. If they're happy, we should, maybe be sad.

Then again, they were very, very happy in 2004, at least until seven or eight o'clock or so.

And then actual votes started getting tallied, and they all became very, very sad.

If it means anything, Ken Mehlman is projecting confidence, and it doesn't appear to be obviously a brave face.

On the other hand, he's talking up absentee voting, which always seems to me to be something you toss out there as a forlorn hope.

In Missouri... Three Republican counties have "record turnout," according to a clerk in Jasper county.

Supposedly... Allen is down, according only to those not-terribly-reliable early exit polls. Hannity just said this, JackM. tells me.

Also...GOP sources say exit polling shows 32.9% of 2004's levels in Republican areas, and only 32.5% of 2004's levels in Democratic areas.

I don't know what this means. It's such a tiny figure it's trivial. Furthermore, while some point out that more Republicans vote after work than Democrats, is that true?

If it's true, why are the polls ALWAYS held open for five or six additional hours in St. Louis due to "long lines"? Seems the Democrats start busing in some very late voters just before (and just after) the deadline.

Thanks again to JackM.

Claim From TNR's The Plank: A Democratic operative says all Senate races, except Ford's, is "looking good" for them, based on exit polls.

What does "looking good" mean? They're competitive? We already knew that.

Furthermore, what the hell do I care what a Democratic operative is saying? Or for that matter, what exit polls are saying?

A Bigger Tea Leaf? Ken Mehlman kept warning about putting any stock in exit poll information. I think he said he didn't know anything about what they'd show, but if he said that, I don't believe him.

He may just be being prudent, but if I had to guess, I'd say that Mehlman thinks exit polls show Republicans behind.

But then, they're not very accurate, and can't predict outcomes in tight elections. The margin of error is too big. If this election winds up with a difference in raw votes of 4% or less, the exit polls can easily have the results backwards, as they did in 2004.

Only if the exit polls show a big difference is there reason for worry, and even then, the actual differential probably won't be half as big as the exit polls claim.

Posted by: Ace at 02:31 PM | Comments (35)
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GA-12, a pick-up we've eyed -- and kinda-sorta need -- is likely to flip to the GOP, at least according to "national Republicans."

Spin? Who knows.

Like Mulder, I want to believe.

Adding a bit of credibility to this claim is their admission that GA-8 looks not terribly good for us (another pick-up we were hoping for, so losing there doesn't set us back any).

Obviously, if GA-12 flips to red, that means Pelosi needs +16 pickups to take control.

Posted by: Ace at 02:15 PM | Comments (21)
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It was a bigger issue than I thought, and I thought it was semi-big.

The poll found that 18 percent of independent voters -- considered pivotal in today's congressional elections -- said they had "serious doubts about voting for a Democratic candidate" because of Mr. Kerry's comments last week.

For most of this year, polls have shown independent voters supporting Democrats by lopsided margins, but yesterday's Pew poll said the Republicans "have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters."

Democrats now lead Republicans among independents by 44 percent to 33 percent, compared with 47 percent to 29 percent in mid-October, according to Pew's poll of 2,369 registered voters Wednesday through Saturday.

Posted by: Ace at 01:42 PM | Comments (40)
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