But there is a decent chance of Republicans holding the House.

Last night I read a great Cost piece. I thought I got the link from RCP, but I can't seem to find it now. So I'll paraphrase the important bits from memory.

First, you can't just average the polls showing a modest Dem lead (Gallup, ABC/WaPo, Pew, Democracy Corps) with those showing a big Dem lead (CNN, FoxNews, Newsweek, etc.). Statistically these polls are too divergent -- one set of data is right and the other is wrong. It's not a high side of things/low side of things deal; either the low lead is right, or the high lead is right.

Forced to choose, Cost chooses the low end, based entirely on Gallup's proven reliability in methodology.

Based on Gallup's polling, this should translate (I think) to a 54-46 Democratic victory in the two-party vote.

It's difficult, he says, to predict how many seats that translates to. There was a model that worked well up until 1994, a model that showed a great deal of volatility and many changes in seats. But since 1994, there has been much less volatility, and a differential in raw vote totals equals far fewer seats won.

He can use a model based on the races since 1994 to guess the new math of translating vote share to seats won, but with so few elections since then (just five), there's just not nearly enough data to have confidence in the model.

Nevertheless, he plows forward anyway with best guesses. Assuming a 54/46 split, Dems gain 19 on average. About two thirds of the time they will gain something between 15 and 24. One third of the time they will gain fewer (11 to 14) or higher (say, 25-30), with probabilities split equally between these, more or less. There's a five percent chance the number of seats won will be beyond these parameters, too.

So, altogether, based on Gallup's polling (and not, I think, averaging it with the other polls in that range, which show a lesser Dem lead; Gallup has the biggest Dem lead of any of the low-end polls), the Republicans have about a 1 in 6 chance of holding the House, a two thirds chance of losing it from anywhere between 1 and 15 seats, and a one in six chance (about) chance of losing it by 16 to 20 seats (or perhaps a few more).

I don't think his models admit for any correction in Democratic skew in polling, because I would imagine that factor is already built in. Not sure about that, though.

Robert Novak also predicts 19 as his most likely Dem pickup. Michael Barone has it as 16, and he made that prediction two weeks ago. He didn't seem to want to adjust it when he mentioned that last night on Hannity & Colmes; I imagine this means he already assumed the polls were out of whack two weeks ago, so that the recent polling showing a smaller Democratic lead just bring the numbers closer to what he thought they were all along.

We should know pretty early. If the Republicans have any realistic chance of holding the house, they'll have to pick off one of two vulnerable Democrats in Georgia (GA 8 and GA 12). We've got ten seats more or less already lost due to scandal, and any realistic scenario means we're going to have to pick up at least one Dem-held seat to overcome the inevitable losses from seats now thought to be toss-ups. Georgia's polls close early, like at 7 or so, so we should have some idea if we're in this thing or not.

Unless, of course, those races are too close to call until the wee hours.

Posted by: Ace at 10:45 AM | Comments (8)
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Supposedly Chafee told someone, "I may not be a Republican much longer."

That's just a rumor, and, who knows, perhaps floated by Rhode Island Democrats to help cinch a Whitehouse victory.

Still, I think maybe we shouldn't be counting on a Chafee win to keep the Senate in Republican control.

Posted by: Ace at 10:32 AM | Comments (12)
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He's pretty sure that he should have won a stupid award. Doesn't take too much to get this guy outraged.

"[My video] cost a million dollars. Pamela Anderson was in it. I
was jumping across canyons and shit." When his video doesn't win, Kanye
argued, "the awards show loses credibility. Nothing against you, but hell, man."

The rant, which inspired gasps from the audience, carried over into a post-show press conference, in which West admitted to reporters, "I haven't seen [another video nominated for the award]. Possibly it could have been quite good, but no way better than 'Touch the Sky'. That is complete bullshit. I paid a million. Obviously it's not all about the money, but the response it got transcended everything, it really made great TV. It took a month to film; I stood on a mountain; I flew a helicopter over Vegas. I did it to be the king of all videos and I wanted to walk home with that award."

"I transcended everything."

Hey, he paid a million dollars, man. He flew a helicopter, he stood on a mountain.

CHris Matthews just said Euro MTV must immediately take the award from the winner and give it to Kanye West or they're raaaaacist.

Thanks to Blog Idaho.

Fairness Update: A troll who calls me a racist points out that Kanye West did not make any reference to race, according to the quotes. So, while the headline might be justified as a joke (and one borrowed, I might add, from the blog I got the story from), hitting that idea a second time seems unfair.

So, a troll convinced me. I've changed the last bit to a knock on Chris Matthews.

Posted by: Ace at 09:42 AM | Comments (54)
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Back to today, on account of Election Day.

Open thread.

(Pop some non-election related story tips in there too if you get a chance. Just in case somebody wants to think about something else for five minutes today)

Here, I'll even give you something nice to look at. more...

Posted by: LauraW. at 06:50 AM | Comments (190)
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Promising.

Posted by: Ace at 08:03 PM | Comments (56)
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Hmmm....

A nice aperitif to cleanse the palette after the CNN Poll.

Via the Influence Peddler, who predicts the post-election results, depending on whether Dems win big, win small, or don't win at all.

It is, of course, this last one that's most fun:

In short, if Democrats fail to win at least one of the chambers, the recriminations and finger-pointing will be epic. The failure to win in this environment will probably cost Dean and Pelosi their jobs and will put all of the Democratic leadership in Washington on notice. I wouldn't put it past some Democrats to begin pondering splintering off and forming third parties.

...

Don't underestimate the demoralizing effect that losing in entirety could have on the Democratic Party. It could permeate for a very long time, and beyond 2008.

He doesn't mention John Kerry. Can you imagine? The Democrats are always looking for some silly scapegoat -- "racial code words," "message didn't get out," "voters too stupid to understand how smart we are," etc. -- in order to blame their defeat on, and avoid the necessary reconsideration of their fundamental message and beliefs.

If the Democrats lose, do you have any doubt they will decide, in their typically-thoughtful Councils of Herd Animals, that John Kerry alone cost them the entire election?

Damn... even if I hated Bush I'd vote Republican just for that.

After the 2002 election disaster for the Democrats (remember? they were counting on big wins then, too) William Kristol said, "And now comes the most enjoyable part of any election season: the recriminations."

Please vote, just so we can have those recriminations.

Do you know what Chris Matthews' tears taste like? I don't, but I've heard stories they taste like gold spun finely into cotton candy. I need to know if those stories are true.

Posted by: Ace at 06:17 PM | Comments (88)
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No, really. November surprise-- entire war won by tomorrow morning?

Actually, he's just there to aid in the decoration and promotion of brave soldiers:

In wholly unrelated news, the Iraqi government just passed a law stating that former tyrants convicted of crimes of humanity are eligible to be executed either by hanging or "being roundhouse kicked to death."

Posted by: Ace at 05:52 PM | Comments (31)
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...right now, over at Hot Air.

If you want to listen in, I think you have to go to "TalkShoe" and download the software. Not a big download.

I may go on at some point.

Posted by: Ace at 05:25 PM | Comments (8)
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Interesting. Pretty much, though, if you're not Peter Daou or Jerome "AstroCash" Armstrong, you're not being paid an awful lot.

But you are being paid.

I didn't see what Kerry was paying his blogger... the one, you know, who put up the headline on Kerry's own website that whatever Kerry's meaning, his "joke" was "right either way."

Heh.

I wonder if Karl Rove's co-payment to that guy was included?

Posted by: Ace at 04:43 PM | Comments (7)
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These are probably as old as the hills. I saw them when I checked back on a link I got from a Russian silly-picture site.

This one's oversized, so you have to click on it.

This is a clikey one, too. Odd.

Again, a clicker. Kind of funny.

An inspirational one:

Tough Room: Well, a lot of people found that more offensive than I figured they would. I've deleted it as just not being worth the controversy.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 04:00 PM | Comments (55)
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