Ace of Spades HQ

April 03, 2014

Senate Seats Ranked in Likelihood to Flip
— CAC

A nice, big map for all of you to get your election hats on.

Map is too big to open here and is worthless at 500px, so: View image

I'm interested in seeing what the morons who live in these states happen to think. I have a feeling the rankings between #5 and #9 are going to be the most contested by the crowd, so I'll give you my thinking based on the data we have:

#5 I have Hagan as more vulnerable than Landrieu because
1- her approval rating is worse
2- her polling against the Republican choices has been worse
3- she's a one-cycle "wave" baby.
4- Landrieu has the bonus of November being an open primary- if Cassidy can't clear 50%, she can theoretically duke it out in the run-off.

#6 I have Landrieu ahead of the open race in Michigan because
1- Where Landrieu trails in polling, the Republican is in the mid 40s or better, whereas Michigan polling finds Republican Land leading, but leading in the very low 40s.
2- Michigan is historically far bluer than Louisiana

#7 I have the open Michigan race ahead of Begich's seat because
1- Land, the Republican running in Michigan, has been consistently beating Democrat Peters in the polls.
2- Land has a cash advantage over Peters, which so far isn't the case in Alaska.
3- Begich has tried to distance himself from President Obama, whereas Peters has been Crist-ing it up.
4- Peters apparently hates cancer patients.

and I have #8 Begich's seat ahead of #9 Udall's because
1- Polling is better for the Republicans in Alaska than in Colorado
2- Colorado voted for Obama twice, Alaska didn't
3- Udall won his contest comfortably in 2008, Begich (barely) beat Ted Stevens, who was badly damaged by corruption charges.

Posted by: CAC at 03:30 PM | Comments (176)
Post contains 314 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment of Warner's chances (VA). He's there as long as he wants the seat.

Posted by: pep at April 03, 2014 02:33 PM (4nR9/)

2 Landrieu also has the family name as well a well-established get-out-the-vote machine that has served her dad, her brother, and her very well, and she brings home the $$ to Louisiana. (I do not live in Louisiana.)

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 02:34 PM (JQkZU)

3 Stomp - #LikeABoss

Posted by: Comrade Arthur at April 03, 2014 02:36 PM (h53OH)

4 Your map, CAC, oooooh my!

Posted by: George Takei at April 03, 2014 02:37 PM (ILBCY)

Rino!

BRB, got to go look at the map.

Posted by: tbodie at April 03, 2014 02:38 PM (Z2OIC)

6 CAC,

This format is great.

Thank you.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at April 03, 2014 02:39 PM (QFxY5)

7 Enstompening

Posted by: 98ZJUSMC Rounding Error Extraordinaire at April 03, 2014 02:39 PM (QBPgO)

Wow, big map won't display on 13 inch laptop

Posted by: Scott in Colorado at April 03, 2014 02:43 PM (MCuPn)

9 The question is moot!

Posted by: toby928© has drink taken at April 03, 2014 03:32 PM (QupBk)

10 Thread had to be pulled so I could make the map even bigger. Apologies.

Posted by: CAC at April 03, 2014 03:32 PM (iOxpm)

11 The Time Machine is alive.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 03:32 PM (0HooB)

12 Wow, big map won't display on 13 inch laptop Posted by: Scott in Colorado at April 03, 2014 06:43 PM (MCuPn) I have a 15.6 inch laptop and have to scroll across.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 03:33 PM (JQkZU)

13 Again, we have no plaid maps. I'm crushed.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 03:34 PM (0HooB)

14 People still use maps?

Posted by: Seems legit at April 03, 2014 03:34 PM (A98Xu)

15 The Moot is question!

Posted by: toby928© has drink taken at April 03, 2014 03:35 PM (QupBk)

16 I have a 15.6 inch laptop and have to scroll across. 17.5 inch laptop won't contain it either. I have map envy.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 03:35 PM (0HooB)

California is all black and lifeless, like a doll's eyes

Posted by: The Jackhole at April 03, 2014 03:35 PM (nTgAI)

18 Thith analythith leavth me tongue-tied.

Posted by: Thuthan Collinth at April 03, 2014 03:35 PM (H4aQb)

19
Republican Senate 2014: Net gain of 0

Toss-ups all or mostly all go D.

SD and WV flip to R
GA flips to D
McConnell goes down if the Dems try hard enough.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at April 03, 2014 03:36 PM (kdS6q)

20 "McConnell goes down if the Dems try hard enough."

This is the message that unfortunately the Republican primary challenger has been unable to put across: whatever else you may think of Mitch, he has crummy odds against Grimes in the general.

The instant she declared she opened up a double digit lead. So why not take a flyer on someone who might actually have more than a slim prayer of winning against Grimes?

Posted by: torquewrench at April 03, 2014 03:40 PM (noWW6)

21 Gee CAC, I don't know about Udall in Colorado. He's not the shiny penny he used to be. He may carry some of the front range and definitely the Peoples Republic of Boulder, but the rest of the state is in a foul mood because of the Democrats.

Posted by: LFW - Honorary Pointy Eared Vulcan at April 03, 2014 03:40 PM (vVSOO)

22 >>...has been consistently beating Democrat Peters.. I sense a joke in here somewhere.

Posted by: Aviator at April 03, 2014 03:40 PM (3rrMW)

23 Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at April 03, 2014 07:36 PM (kdS6q) I'm afraid, as weak as Hagan is, the GOPe will screw up NC.

Posted by: Golfman in NC at April 03, 2014 03:41 PM (/djtm)

24 Ace hasn't used the word milieu in a while.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 03:42 PM (ZqKAA)

25 Too bad our two Senators got picked already, one Dim and one RINO.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 03:44 PM (0HooB)

26 Are any witches running in these races? I'm only voting the all-witch ticket from here on in.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at April 03, 2014 03:45 PM (8ZskC)

27 Too bad our two Senators got picked already, one Dim and one RINO. Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit at April 03, 2014 07:44 PM (0HooB) Where are you?

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 03:45 PM (JQkZU)

28 Big gay ass map, numbers... Heeeeeyyyyyyyyyyyyy, there wasn't supposed to be maths! I think the potential for every close race a Democrat is in the distinct taint of Obamacare will screw them because ONLY Democrats voted for it and the laws popularity has not been climbing. Name recognition, money, lack of voter excitement will lead to depressed D voters and if the R's don't screw it up a take over of the Senate with a 3 to 4 vote cushion is possible.

Posted by: Gmac-Pondering the coming implosion, and hoping its 404care at April 03, 2014 03:45 PM (baiNQ)

29 CAC-Franken? Is anyone running against the former Â“comic?Â”

Posted by: Carol at April 03, 2014 03:46 PM (gjOCp)

30 NCGOP is pushing Thom a leetle too hard, seems to me. Conservative turnout will be big here IMO. Most I know are anti-amnesty. If I remember right, Tillis believes in "a pathway to citizenship"; other than existing laws.

Posted by: NCwoof at April 03, 2014 03:46 PM (aUQgu)

31 I think the potential for every close race a Democrat is in the distinct taint of Obamacare will screw them because ONLY Democrats voted for it and the laws popularity has not been climbing. Name recognition, money, lack of voter excitement will lead to depressed D voters and if the R's don't screw it up a take over of the Senate with a 3 to 4 vote cushion is possible. Posted by: Gmac-Pondering the coming implosion, and hoping its 404care at April 03, 2014 07:45 PM (baiNQ) This is going to be a turnout election. The GOP needs to get its voters excited and influence GOP-leaning independents to vote.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 03:47 PM (JQkZU)

32 Even though I live in MA they still run NH political ads on our radio stations because it's so close. Today I heard the first Shaheen anti Scott Brown radio ad. (Brown just kinda announced he's running, like, yesterday.) So the ad was about Big Oil! and Wall Street! And Super PACs! And why won't Scott Brown sign a pledge to stop PAC ads?. Brown will lose this election, too. 50-45.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 03:50 PM (ZqKAA)

33 I live in Louisiana, but I don't know much. I don't even remember the name of the guy who ran against Gov. Jindal. I never even saw one single sign for him. Tons of Jindal signs all over the place. I know the whole state isn't like that, but it's hard to believe Landrieu can win. I think the polls will show that, once Cassidy gets some name recognition. And is seen with the Robertsons. Oh, wait, that's the same thing...

Posted by: Mama AJ at April 03, 2014 03:50 PM (SUKHu)

34 More on Colorado, two state senators were voted out of office because of the gun control laws. Another one resigned her seat rather than go to a recall election so the seat went to another reliably Democratic tool. Several counties in the northeastern part of the state were making noises about seceding from the state because the front range liberals were setting the agenda for the entire state. I think most conservatives in the state are tired of being dictated to by lib's in the front range, but the population count is not in their favor. Colorado used to be fairly reliably red, but with the influx of all the californicators it is more blue than purple. Udall will have a fight if the right candidate is running. Cory Gardner seems to be the front runner right now, but the Dem's are already smearing him hard. Sorry for the long post.

Posted by: LFW - Honorary Pointy Eared Vulcan at April 03, 2014 03:50 PM (vVSOO)

35 17 California is all black and lifeless, like a doll's eyes

We're fixing that with Rainbow crosswalks.
Because no money.

Posted by: Clutch Cargo at April 03, 2014 03:50 PM (pgQxn)

36 This is going to be a turnout election. The GOP needs to get its voters excited and influence GOP-leaning independents to vote. Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 07:47 PM (JQkZU) It's cute that you think the GOPe will actually try to get its base voters excited and ready to pull the lever for a RINO squish.

Posted by: Hrothgar at April 03, 2014 03:52 PM (xpPRn)

37 Here's exactly what's gonna happen in November: Everything Red will stay R. Everything Blue will stay D. Everything Purple will go the way of the D's.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 03:52 PM (ZqKAA)

38 It's cute that you think the GOPe will actually try to get its base voters excited and ready to pull the lever for a RINO squish. Posted by: Hrothgar at April 03, 2014 07:52 PM (xpPRn) If I keep my expectations low, they're exceeded more often.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 03:53 PM (JQkZU)

39 NCWoof. Agreed. Cons will be big without the Obama vortex. Long term I fear Tillis will waltz to the big dance and then the disco ball will fall on him. I just don't trust him and I am scared he may have some skeletons in the closet. Plus I still haven't forgiven him over the bonuses he have his staff after talking all big on spending. Woof reference? NCSU 86 BTW.

Posted by: Golfman in NC at April 03, 2014 03:54 PM (LBsRR)

33...Tons of Jindal signs all over the place.

Posted by: Mama AJ

----------

Is Jindal running for reelection this year, Mama AJ?

If it's a governor-election year, then that could increase turnout.

Posted by: wheatie at April 03, 2014 03:54 PM (FWbLS)

41 If I keep my expectations low, they're exceeded more often. Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 07:53 PM (JQkZU) As a professional pessimist, I still like being pleasantly surprised by being wrong, but it is happening less & less frequently.

Posted by: Hrothgar at April 03, 2014 03:55 PM (xpPRn)

42 I thought Jindal was term-limited.

Posted by: --- at April 03, 2014 03:56 PM (MMC8r)

43 I thought Jindal was term-limited. Posted by: --- at April 03, 2014 07:56 PM (MMC8r) I believe he is. David Vitter is running for the governorship.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 03:56 PM (JQkZU)

44 37 Here's exactly what's gonna happen in November: Everything Red will stay R. Everything Blue will stay D. Everything Purple will go the way of the D's. Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 07:52 PM (ZqKAA) I pretty much agree with this. I'm thinking AK May go back to 2 red senators. I don't have high expectations

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 03:56 PM (HVff2)

45 As a professional pessimist, I still like being pleasantly surprised by being wrong, but it is happening less & less frequently. Posted by: Hrothgar at April 03, 2014 07:55 PM (xpPRn) *Fistbump*

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 03:57 PM (JQkZU)

46 Is Jindal running for reelection this year, Mama AJ? If it's a governor-election year, then that could increase turnout. Posted by: wheatie at April 03, 2014 07:54 PM (FWbLS) LA Gov. election is not in a Presidential election year (1 of 5 that are in odd number years). Also, isn't he termed out?

Posted by: The Political Hat at April 03, 2014 03:57 PM (XvHmy)

47 So Vitter is still safe if he loses? But is Vitter up for reelection in '16?

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 03:57 PM (ZqKAA)

48 I give up, where's the kitteh?

Posted by: Waterhouse at April 03, 2014 03:57 PM (5mB4F)

49 "Are any witches running in these races? I'm only voting the all-witch ticket from here on in."

To blazes with witches.

I think it's time to have an urgent national conversation about magic rape sperm detectors in women's hoo-has. And about how rape induced pregnancy reflects God's will.

That will surely secure control of the Senate. Take that to the bank, my friends.

Posted by: torquewrench at April 03, 2014 03:57 PM (noWW6)

50 No, Jindal isn't running. There *were* tons of signs, when he did run.

Posted by: Mama AJ at April 03, 2014 03:58 PM (SUKHu)

51 The open seat in Iowa will be a struggle for anyone with an Â® but I'm putting my money (literally) on Joni Ernst. Make them squeal eieiooooooooo.

Posted by: Angel with a sword at April 03, 2014 03:58 PM (hpgw1)

52 So Vitter is still safe if he loses? But is Vitter up for reelection in '16? Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 07:57 PM (ZqKAA) You are correct. Vitter is up for Senate re-election in 2016. He can run for the governorship without risking his Senate seat.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 03:59 PM (JQkZU)

53 Vendette, I'm down here in Florida.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 03:59 PM (0HooB)

54
I'm afraid, as weak as Hagan is, the GOPe will screw up NC.
Posted by: Golfman in NC

Yeah, that's my other pick to click. The pros are all acting like she's doomed, but she was pretty resilient in her last go round.

And the Carolinas have gone quite mad, so anything can happen.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at April 03, 2014 03:59 PM (kdS6q)

55 Vendette, I'm down here in Florida. Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit at April 03, 2014 07:59 PM (0HooB) I'm convinced Nelson gets botoxed.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:00 PM (JQkZU)

56 "if the R's don't screw it up a take over of the Senate with a 3 to 4 vote cushion is possible."

A three to four vote cushion, you say?

Posted by: McCain, Graham, Ayotte, Collins, and Rubio at April 03, 2014 04:00 PM (noWW6)

57 O/T. Photo tour of Bruce Willis' Idaho house, which is up for sale. Only $8.8 Million! http://preview.tinyurl.com/k5b73jr

Posted by: bonhomme[/i][/b][/s][/i][/b][/s] at April 03, 2014 04:01 PM (qKrH5)

58 Jindal is term-limited. Vitter says he wants to run for gov. in 2015. >>But is Vitter up for reelection in '16? Yep.

Posted by: Mama AJ at April 03, 2014 04:01 PM (SUKHu)

59 The GOP will take the Senate and then it will piss its pants.

Posted by: eman at April 03, 2014 04:01 PM (0UXKR)

60 I live in (kind of) northern VA, and don't even know when or if the Repub primary is. I guess Gillespie is running, since I get begging emails from him, but that's it so far. I really wish I were a FSA peep so I could follow Warner around with a sign asking if he read the obamacare bill.

Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 04:01 PM (4mA8E)

61 So how's Jim Demint doing? This guy was great. He left the Senate to do, what I thought, were going to big things for conservatism. He's pretty much irrelevant now.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:02 PM (ZqKAA)

62 I'm convinced Nelson gets botoxed. He gets them the same way Nazi Pelousi gets hers: directly injected into the brain.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 04:03 PM (0HooB)

63 This is going to be a turnout election. The GOP needs to get its voters excited and influence GOP-leaning independents to vote. Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 07:47 PM (JQkZU) But doesn't the GOP snatch victory from the jaws of defeat?

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 04:03 PM (HVff2)

64 If Vitter decides to retire, (if he loses the gov election), it could put that seat in serious jeopardy.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:03 PM (ZqKAA)

65 "I'm convinced Nelson gets botoxed."

Nelson's face is definitely weird. He's starting to get that android look.

"The A2s always were a bit twitchy. That could never happen now with our behavioral inhibitors."

Posted by: torquewrench at April 03, 2014 04:03 PM (noWW6)

66 If the shit hits the fan in 2016, R's in the Senate could go sub-40.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:04 PM (ZqKAA)

67 I live in (kind of) northern VA, and don't even know when or if the Repub primary is. I guess Gillespie is running, since I get begging emails from him, but that's it so far. I really wish I were a FSA peep so I could follow Warner around with a sign asking if he read the obamacare bill. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:01 PM (4mA8E) I don't know when the GOP primary is either. More importantly, attend the NoVaMoMee! June 21! Alexandria! Email sbannion at gmail for more info. You are more than welcome.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:04 PM (JQkZU)

68 You fools. You think you're going to win the senate back.

Posted by: Democrat legions with the same name at April 03, 2014 04:05 PM (fZQEE)

69 "The pros are all acting like [Hagan is] doomed, but she was pretty resilient in her last go round."

When there was a shit-ton of voter fraud.

You have to expect that Hagan's people are none too happy with NC discovering the magnitude of the abuse and tightening up its poll procedures.

Posted by: torquewrench at April 03, 2014 04:05 PM (noWW6)

70 Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:01 PM (4mA8E) My wife's aunt and uncle moved to Stuart from Wisconsin. Her aunt visited us recently and said Rush was an idiot. But for domestic peace. And those days are short.

Posted by: Golfman in NC at April 03, 2014 04:05 PM (/djtm)

71
The GOP needs to get its voters excited and influence GOP-leaning independents to vote.
Posted by: Vendette

Nah -- the RCP and other big wallets are going to spend their war-chest on "outreach" and "electable" moderates that can't get elected.

Not to mention, after today's Firefox purge think how many clutch purses of Republican donors are going to slam shut so the same thing doesn't happen to them.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at April 03, 2014 04:05 PM (kdS6q)

72 Iowa at #10??? Braley is such an insufferable a-hole that Iowa should be moved to 5 or 6.

Posted by: JT in KC at April 03, 2014 04:06 PM (wSjTi)

73 This guy was great. He left the Senate to do, what I thought, were going to big things for conservatism. He's pretty much irrelevant now. Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 08:02 PM (ZqKAA) He was replaced by Tim Scott. Fantastic. Wonderful. Fabulous.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:06 PM (JQkZU)

74 67 I don't know when the GOP primary is either. More importantly, attend the NoVaMoMee! June 21! Alexandria! Email sbannion at gmail for more info. You are more than welcome. I've thought about it. I'm a serious serial lurker.

Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 04:06 PM (4mA8E)

75 Posted by: Golfman in NC at April 03, 2014 08:05 PM (/djtm) I'm from Wisconsin & I like Rush. After this winter NC is tempting

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 04:07 PM (HVff2)

76 Posted by: torquewrench at April 03, 2014 08:05 PM (noWW6) Quick. Call a hearing.

Posted by: Darrell Issa at April 03, 2014 04:08 PM (/djtm)

77 The anti-Vitter ads in 2010 were nasty. Can't say I love the scandal in his past, but...

Posted by: Mama AJ at April 03, 2014 04:08 PM (SUKHu)

78 I've thought about it. I'm a serious serial lurker. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:06 PM (4mA8E) Replace "thought" with "will attend". Quite a few people who attended last year were lurkers. Seriously, you will enjoy it. Email Bannion. You won't regret it. Plus you'll meet such personages as MWR and AlextheChick. I can assure you that they are worth it.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:09 PM (JQkZU)

79 I've thought about it. I'm a serious serial lurker. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:06 PM (4mA8E) Give it serious thought, even though you will regret it later!

Posted by: Hrothgar at April 03, 2014 04:10 PM (xpPRn)

80 CAC you do a nice job analyzing the various races. Thanks

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 04:10 PM (HVff2)

81 Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 08:07 PM (HVff2) Please come to NC before it is too late. I fear VA is already gone.

Posted by: Golfman in NC at April 03, 2014 04:11 PM (/djtm)

82 Give it serious thought, even though you will regret it later! Posted by: Hrothgar at April 03, 2014 08:10 PM (xpPRn) Harrumph.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:11 PM (JQkZU)

83 I've thought about it. I'm a serious serial lurker. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:06 PM (4mA8E) Are you tall? Wouldn't want a wee fist to the throat.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:11 PM (oFCZn)

84 Larry Craig sickened me, but I always found the circumstances of his arrest quite suspect. Or, er, dubious. He was caught in a sting at a Minnesota airport. Maybe I'm naive, but is queers looking for sex from other queers in airport rest rooms a big national problem that requires 'stings'?

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:12 PM (ZqKAA)

85 It just seemed like maybe that 'sting' was created for Larry Craig. Like, they were tipped off about Craig's proclivities, and, well, you can figure out the rest.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:13 PM (ZqKAA)

86 *waves hand through air*

This is the MoMee you want to attend.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD, you taunty bitch. at April 03, 2014 04:13 PM (Gk3SS)

87 Are you tall? Wouldn't want a wee fist to the throat. Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 08:11 PM (oFCZn) You'd be proud to get a fist to the throat or a kick to the shins.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:13 PM (JQkZU)

88 Well. A foot of white postracial aggressive global warming coming down. Probably not a good chance to bounce the fucking clown Franken as our RC in MN is in disarray. We have a fucking drugged out Gov. I am a bit depressed. Skipping the beer, going right for the bourbon tonight after I get some work done. Take care all.

Posted by: Minnfidel at April 03, 2014 04:14 PM (igKtt)

89 Soothsayer. Who else is here from MA? IÂ’d like to arrange a meet up in Boston area.

Posted by: Carol at April 03, 2014 04:14 PM (gjOCp)

90 84 Larry Craig sickened me, but I always found the circumstances of his arrest quite suspect. Or, er, dubious. He was caught in a sting at a Minnesota airport. Maybe I'm naive, but is queers looking for sex from other queers in airport rest rooms a big national problem that requires 'stings'? Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 08:12 PM (ZqKAA) His problem was he was looking for free sex. Unlike Barney Franks bordello/whorehouse ran out of his basement by his little butt boi

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 04:14 PM (HVff2)

91 Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 08:11 PM (JQkZU) I have found that a pretty reliable rule is that no matter what you decide to do, you will regret it later!

Posted by: Hrothgar at April 03, 2014 04:14 PM (xpPRn)

92 I'll be running as a Libertarian in every State!

Posted by: Some D-Hole at April 03, 2014 04:15 PM (lq3Ak)

93 OT Really way OT. I'm at a loss for a particular word. It's kind of a synonym for frivolous gift, maybe. A trinket kind of thing. Inexpensive, not a gag gift for someone but kind of. No, I don't need ideas for an item like this. What do you call this kind of thing? Usually if I'm stuck like this the word pops in my head unexpectedly but it's not this time. Help!

Posted by: weirdflunky at April 03, 2014 04:15 PM (dpCGE)

94 Posted by: Minnfidel at April 03, 2014 08:14 PM (igKtt) Good nite neighbor, careful with the shovel & snowblower

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 04:15 PM (HVff2)

95 Posted by: weirdflunky at April 03, 2014 08:15 PM (dpCGE) gimcracks?

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:16 PM (oFCZn)

96 Tchotchki?

Posted by: thunderb at April 03, 2014 04:16 PM (eGECW)

97 This is the MoMee you want to attend. Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD, you taunty bitch. at April 03, 2014 08:13 PM (Gk3SS) Otherwise, you'll feel like this: http://tinyurl.com/nqpgee6

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:16 PM (JQkZU)

98 I'll think about a meetup if Ace attends. Which means we'll be paying for that to happen. Which is cool. And that way others will attend. Last time it was in Boston, Slu came in from Maine, Dave In Texas came in from Texas, and lauraw came in from Connecticut.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:16 PM (ZqKAA)

99 knickknack

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:16 PM (oFCZn)

100 tchotchkes

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:17 PM (oFCZn)

101 Here in MT there's a huge knife fight going on in the Dem's battle over who challenges Daines in November. They're dancing in puddles of blood. And we're buying popcorn direct.

Posted by: Big Swede at April 03, 2014 04:17 PM (vmk6W)

102 95 Heh. No, it's a regular ordinary word. I'm about to snap.

Posted by: weirdflunky at April 03, 2014 04:17 PM (dpCGE)

103 souvenir

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:17 PM (ZqKAA)

104
I don't even know if #1 and #2 are likely flips from my view of the American electorate.

People always want to talk about previous bad candidates on our side and that we should have had such and such seat, when to me it seems the devil himself would have been a better choice than say Reid.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at April 03, 2014 04:17 PM (hUf/y)

105 bobble?

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:18 PM (ZqKAA)

106 Synonym for frivolous. Maybe

Posted by: weirdflunky at April 03, 2014 04:18 PM (dpCGE)

107 bauble

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:18 PM (oFCZn)

108 Knickknacks

Posted by: thunderb at April 03, 2014 04:18 PM (eGECW)

109 Good nite neighbor, careful with the shovel & snowblower Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 08:15 PM I'm protesting it. I am going to hit the driveway doing 20 mph and parking it where it lands. They are claiming 60 on Wed. So eff it. Im going to let global warming do it!

Posted by: Minnfidel at April 03, 2014 04:18 PM (igKtt)

110 "I'm at a loss for a particular word. It's kind of a synonym for frivolous gift, maybe. A trinket kind of thing." bauble, bibelot, curio, curiosity, doodad, gaud, gewgaw (also geegaw), gimcrack, kickshaw, novelty, ornamental, tchotchke or knickknack?

Posted by: Slapweasel at April 03, 2014 04:18 PM (lq3Ak)

111 I'll think about a meetup if Ace attends. Which means we'll be paying for that to happen. Which is cool. And that way others will attend. Last time it was in Boston, Slu came in from Maine, Dave In Texas came in from Texas, and lauraw came in from Connecticut. Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 08:16 PM (ZqKAA) AtC is worth it. So is MWR.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:18 PM (JQkZU)

112 Souvenir?

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:19 PM (ZqKAA)

113 Knackknick?

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:19 PM (ZqKAA)

114 Trinkets

Posted by: thunderb at April 03, 2014 04:19 PM (eGECW)

115 83 Are you tall? Wouldn't want a wee fist to the throat. Um, no. I'm a 5 foot ginger. A confused ginger.

Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 04:19 PM (4mA8E)

116 doodad

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:19 PM (oFCZn)

117 That pic of TFG on Drudge is creepy.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 04:19 PM (0HooB)

118 SLAPWEASEL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Novelty FTW! Thank you

Posted by: weirdflunky at April 03, 2014 04:19 PM (dpCGE)

119 novelty? Souvenir?

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:20 PM (ZqKAA)

120 Otherwise, you'll feel like this:

http://tinyurl.com/nqpgee6 Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 08:16 PM (JQkZU)

Or like this:

http://bit.ly/Og9Rzt

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD, you taunty bitch. at April 03, 2014 04:20 PM (Gk3SS)

121 knickknack paddywhack

Posted by: Waterhouse at April 03, 2014 04:20 PM (5mB4F)

122 trinket

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:20 PM (oFCZn)

123 gewgaw

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:20 PM (oFCZn)

124 Posted by: Minnfidel at April 03, 2014 08:18 PM (igKtt) Put it in 4 wheel drive and. Between the ditches

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 04:20 PM (HVff2)

125 Agree with the Hagan being more vulnerable than Landrieu for all the same reasons. However--it's weird IIRC Nate Silver had Landrieu's chances of getting upset at a greater percentage than Hagan. He has Hagan at 50-50 and he has Landrieu at 45 -55% http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/ Ace had it posted a couple of weeks ago--but I think he had Hagan's percentages in place of Landrieu's in his post. I could be reading it wrong --but it's color coded and everything!

Posted by: tasker at April 03, 2014 04:21 PM (RJMhd)

126 Souvenir??

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:21 PM (ZqKAA)

127 "SLAPWEASEL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Novelty FTW! Thank you" Posted by: weirdflunky at April 03, 2014 08:19 PM (dpCGE) I thank Merriam-Webster online. It is my go-to, uh... ...thing?

Posted by: Slapweasel at April 03, 2014 04:21 PM (lq3Ak)

128 Gratuity?

Posted by: bergerbilder at April 03, 2014 04:21 PM (8MjqI)

129 gimcrack

Posted by: OK, thanks, bye at April 03, 2014 04:21 PM (uopHF)

130 doohickey?

Posted by: rickl at April 03, 2014 04:22 PM (sdi6R)

131 There was a Family Guy episode in which they were playing charades that went like this.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:22 PM (ZqKAA)

132 Um, no. I'm a 5 foot ginger. A confused ginger. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:19 PM (4mA8E) You need to be there.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:22 PM (JQkZU)

133 Um, no. I'm a 5 foot ginger. A confused ginger. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:19 PM (4mA8E)

*fistbump*

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD, you taunty bitch. at April 03, 2014 04:22 PM (Gk3SS)

134 Campaign contribution.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 04:22 PM (0HooB)

135 Novelty is the word. Thank you all for the help. Was just about to nutup.

Posted by: weirdflunky at April 03, 2014 04:23 PM (dpCGE)

136 Token?

Posted by: Mama AJ at April 03, 2014 04:23 PM (SUKHu)

137 AtC is worth it. So is MWR. Why, they pop out of a cake or something?

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:23 PM (ZqKAA)

138 133 OMG. A fist-bump from the Queen.

Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 04:24 PM (4mA8E)

139 "Novelty is the word. Thank you all for the help. Was just about to nutup." Posted by: weirdflunky at April 03, 2014 08:23 PM (dpCGE) I've been there! ...and you're quite welcome.

Posted by: Slapweasel at April 03, 2014 04:24 PM (lq3Ak)

140 AtC! For you! http://tinyurl.com/phmzohy

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:24 PM (JQkZU)

141 OMG. A fist-bump from the Queen. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:24 PM (4mA8E) Get thee to the NoVAMoMee to meet her glorious self.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:25 PM (JQkZU)

142 "Why, they pop out of a cake or something?"

AtC once taught me a new word.

Can you say "Racktastic"?

And she strikes me as an honest soul.
So, I have no reason the believe she is lying.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at April 03, 2014 04:26 PM (lceO/)

143 Trinket. Thirded

Posted by: tasker at April 03, 2014 04:26 PM (RJMhd)

144 136 Token? Posted by: Mama AJ at April 03, 2014 08:23 PM (SUKHu) Racist!

Posted by: bergerbilder at April 03, 2014 04:26 PM (8MjqI)

145 "Begich (barely) beat Ted Stevens, who was badly damaged by corruption charges."

... and...

"[Larry Craig] was caught in a sting at a Minnesota airport."

Gosh, it's almost as though there's a concerted effort to gin up charges against selected politically prominent individuals.

Let's note that Stevens, a blatant trougher but one who was aboveboard about his pork seeking, later had the "corruption" charges dropped. And the prosecution team was quite plausibly accused of misconduct, overreach, and illegally concealing exculpatory evidence. Meanwhile, a Democrat sat in what used to be his Senate seat.

Posted by: torquewrench at April 03, 2014 04:26 PM (noWW6)

146 140 AtC! For you! http://tinyurl.com/phmzohy Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 08:24 PM (JQkZU) Gonna have to show that to mid kid as she is a corgi owner

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at April 03, 2014 04:26 PM (HVff2)

147 A frivol.

Posted by: tasker at April 03, 2014 04:27 PM (RJMhd)

148 Why, they pop out of a cake or something? Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 08:23 PM (ZqKAA) The last NoVaMoMee MWR spoke aloud one of her posted grievances in an accent that was both New England and UK (because her mom is from there). You haven't lived until you've heard MWR swear in that accent.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:27 PM (JQkZU)

149 I need to go the NoVaMoMee this time. I missed the last one because of Basketball. Save a Sasparilla for me!

Posted by: Truck Monkey, Infused with Leftist Logic at April 03, 2014 04:27 PM (jucos)

150 Lulz, I like House of Cards so far but it's completely detached from reality. Ashleigh Bansfield aggressively going after the wife of a D Vice President? Hahaha.

Posted by: Adam at April 03, 2014 04:28 PM (ZqWUF)

151 OMG. A fist-bump from the Queen. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:24 PM (4mA8E)

Five foot gingers represent.

Vendette, the noise I just let out was kinda embarrassing.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD, you taunty bitch. at April 03, 2014 04:28 PM (Gk3SS)

152 The last NoVaMoMee MWR spoke aloud one of her posted grievances in an accent that was both New England and UK (because her mom is from there). You haven't lived until you've heard MWR swear in that accent. Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 08:27 PM (JQkZU) Wait a minute...there's an Airing of Grievances? Hmmmm.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:29 PM (oFCZn)

153 need to go the NoVaMoMee this time. I missed the last one because of Basketball. Save a Sasparilla for me! I usually request a Guinness be hoisted for me in absentia. And a shot of something, I'm not picky. Oh, and BTW, that's not Sasparilla.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit [/i][/s][/b][/u] at April 03, 2014 04:29 PM (0HooB)

154 Let's take back our country this fall! I'm in.

Posted by: ALH at April 03, 2014 04:29 PM (btTLZ)

155 YeeHaw, tornado warning! It's officially Spring in Texas.

Posted by: DangerGirl at April 03, 2014 04:29 PM (GrtrJ)

156 Taking back this country is kinda like inheriting a house with property tax liens on it.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:31 PM (ZqKAA)

157 Vendette, the noise I just let out was kinda embarrassing. Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD, you taunty bitch. at April 03, 2014 08:28 PM (Gk3SS) http://tinyurl.com/pzn7b44

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:31 PM (JQkZU)

158 Taking back this country is kinda like inheriting a house with property tax liens on it. Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 08:31 PM (ZqKAA) And it's on fire.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 04:32 PM (oFCZn)

159 New doggeh thread.

Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 04:32 PM (JQkZU)

160 Nood

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at April 03, 2014 04:32 PM (lceO/)

161 nood ace with cute dogs eating carrots and shit!

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 04:32 PM (ZqKAA)

162 It's finally warming up here in Georgia. Tonight I put up the dead of winter wardrobe and broke out the sleeveless dresses. Stompy Sandals!

Posted by: ALH at April 03, 2014 04:32 PM (btTLZ)

163 http://tinyurl.com/pzn7b44
Posted by: Vendette at April 03, 2014 08:31 PM (JQkZU)

*flails*

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD, you taunty bitch. at April 03, 2014 04:33 PM (Gk3SS)

164 154 Let's take back our country this fall! I'm in. Posted by: ALH at April 03, 2014 08:29 PM (btTLZ) Yes, we need to, to repeal Obamacare. Oh, we're not doing that? Well, at least we can block amnesty... Eh.... Well, at least we can block any more Obama appointments. Don't see that either. At this point what difference does it make?

Posted by: extendo-man at April 03, 2014 04:33 PM (kp5cA)

165 >>YeeHaw, tornado warning! It's officially Spring in Texas. Ah, man. If it's in Texas, it's heading toward LA.

Posted by: Mama AJ at April 03, 2014 04:34 PM (SUKHu)

166 Last time it was in Boston, Slu came in from Maine, Dave In Texas came in from Texas, and lauraw came in from Connecticut. Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 08:16 PM (ZqKAA) When was that?

Posted by: Carol at April 03, 2014 04:36 PM (gjOCp)

167 2007.

Posted by: Soothsayer, corn bread assassin at April 03, 2014 04:37 PM (ZqKAA)

168 51 "The open seat in Iowa will be difficult..." Agreed. The Iowa Republican Party seems to be in a slight state of disarray at present. While I would much prefer Jodi over Jacobs, whoever is nominated must get the full force of support. Braley is a jackass but he has full D support. Senate seats, folks, we're talkin' about freakin' senate seats. This is no time to sit on the sidelines.

Posted by: Mike in the Hinterlands at April 03, 2014 04:43 PM (DNpio)

169 AtC is worth it. So is MWR. There is a link, long ago, of the results of a party ... Someone, not MWR, was passed-out on a park table, amongst the beer can empties, in a white thong ... One can only hope.

Posted by: Arbalest at April 03, 2014 04:54 PM (FlRtG)

170 Who gets the Senate seat in Syria? Or is that still Putintown?

Posted by: You know its true at April 03, 2014 04:55 PM (rCS6C)

171 yawn.... electing more of the same squishy RINO shits to a Senate full of them won't do anything but give cover to the rest of the Demonrats these shitbirds always want to reach across the aisle to.

Let.
It.
Burn.

Posted by: redc1c4 at April 03, 2014 05:00 PM (q+fqH)

172 If Sam Clovis IA can over come the Mom crap in the primary he will beat Bruce Braley like a rented mule. sam has all the qualifications of the rest of the primary seekers put together, Plus the Gravitas to beat brucely and stand up to McConnell, boner, reid and Obama, Sam Clovis is a striaght shooter and constitutional warrior! None come close.

Posted by: Concealedkerry Behind Northern agression enemy lines at April 03, 2014 05:29 PM (LjjnQ)

173 60 I live in (kind of) northern VA, and don't even know when or if the Repub primary is. I guess Gillespie is running, since I get begging emails from him, but that's it so far. I really wish I were a FSA peep so I could follow Warner around with a sign asking if he read the obamacare bill. Posted by: lilredhen at April 03, 2014 08:01 PM (4mA8E) I get the feeling Warner is seeing some weakness in his internals regarding his vote on Obamacare since he is one of the Senators proposing new "Copper" health plans that are basically the old low premium, high deductible plans. Sometimes you need to read between the lines of the polls to see the true state.

Posted by: Ashley Judd's Puffy Scamper, aka MrCaniac at April 03, 2014 06:06 PM (HxSXm)

174

Buried down here in comments, but as to Hagan:

If less than +3 going into election a day she's lost.

+3-5 should be a squeeker

+5< Swear in the Hag

NC consistently underpolls the R. Has for 30 years now

Posted by: Chuck at April 03, 2014 06:34 PM (pIxZi)

175 158 Taking back this country is kinda like inheriting a house with property tax liens on it.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 03, 2014 08:31 PM (ZqKAA)

And it's on fire.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at April 03, 2014 08:32 PM (oFCZn)

And the basement is flooded. And there are highly litigious, Black Panther renters living there who haven't paid rent in two years, have gutted the interior and sold off anything valuable, and have a local liberal judge in their pocket who (1) is preventing the owners from evicting the tenants and (2) is prepared to hold the owners liable for the unliveable conditions that were created by the tenants.

Posted by: End O' Times Realty at April 04, 2014 04:49 AM (yhJhK)

176 1. WV Shelley Moore Capito has statewide name recognition. Although Rounds is killing it in SD, there is still Presslee as a vote splitter to gum up the works. 2. SD 3. MT There is now an incumbent in what was previously an open seat thanks to Baucus' appt to China. 4. AR 5. NC 6. LA 7. AK especially if Treadwell is the nominee. 8. CO With the recall and a strong candidate emerging as Cory Gardner, this race looks winnable. 9. MI Terri Lynn Land has a reasonable shot with Snyder at the top of the ticket. 10. IA is a bit of a mess, so I would move Brown p in rank. Shaheen is a newbie who rode in on Obama's coat tails, nd Brown has already proven he can defeat a stronger opponent in Coakley. Liarwatha got tons of national support, while Brown estranged the tea party that put him in office. NH is friendlier to Republicans than MA, so I think he'll win. 11. No one is running against Franken. Gillespie has a better shot than people think in VA, so I would move him up. I think he is laying low till the primary and making phone calls to big donors. Warner will be tough to beat, but this is the last possible pick up for the GOP to my thinking. 12. MN 13. GA The only shot the Dems have at flipping a seat. Nunn has been getting GOP establishment support, endorsing her so called moderate character. 14. It will be a cold day in hell when KY sends a rubber stamp for Obama to the senate. McConnell will be Majority Leader.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at April 04, 2014 05:18 AM (Y92Nd)

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