FNC says KY for McCain, VT for Obama. Not surprises there.

WV for McCain, not a shock.

Indiana and Virginia are too close to call between McCain and Obama.

Closing at 7:30 eastern: NC, OH, WV. Obviously NC and OH are two big states, it will be interesting to see if either OH or NC are called early.

Here's a full list of closing times if you are interested in keep score at home.

UPDATE: SC called for McCain. Dogs that haven't barked by 7:50 eastern...VA and GA are too close to call. Those might have been early indicators of an Obama tidal wave. FWIW-VA took awhile to call in 2004 as well. This isn't a first time thing.

RE: Indiana: I drank the Barone hemlock for a minute until Slu slapped some sense into me...McCain may be running behind Bush's 04 totals but Bush won by 20 points. There's some play there.

Biggest loss of the night? Megyn Kelly is not wearing the glasses. I thought she was saving them for the rally night.

[UPDATE - PA]
Local TV is saying Rooney is *CRUSHING* serial philanderer Tim Mahoney by 63%.

Posted by: DrewM at 04:26 PM | Comments (112)
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Guy broke up with his girlfriend because she supported McCain-Palin.

And rightly so. We each were looking different ways. More: We were looking forward to different worlds. Hers full of freedom and rugged independence, brutal to me, mine of social harmony and cooperation, unjust to her.

...

It got worse. I don't even know if I was as liberal as I acted around her, but it got to the point where I'd start looking for places to start a fight. We'd fought before, but apologies and make-up sex would heal each wound. With our political views, however, we were unapologetic, and sex — make-up or otherwise — rarely follows any argument about John McCain's revised perspective on torture.

The last straw came with Palin's selection as McCain's running mate. I worked myself into a feminist rage over what I saw as her mom-at-home attitudes, anti-abortion stance and exploitation of her femininity to make sexist voters feel less threatened. If Karen voted for that ticket, she was a hypocrite, plain and simple. She accused me of the same, saying it was sexist to think I could know who a woman "ought" to vote for. She left for a friend's house that evening. She only came back for her things.

Love doesn't transcend politics — it is politics. Each person representing his or her own view, contributing, swapping ideas, compromising. Sometimes you can manage the bipartisan effort. And sometimes you need a two-state solution.

Seems like a really roundabout way to tell your dad you're gay.

Thanks to Maetenloch.

Posted by: Ace at 03:30 PM | Comments (71)
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I've thrown a question mark up because this is Gawker claiming they have them, and Drudge disagrees on the PA number.

Even more caution than before.

As Geraghty says, "Don't get cocky, kid."

Where the exit polls claim we are. Minuses bad (we're down, supposedy), plus up:

PA: -4

VA: -2

NC: +2

FL: -1

OH: -1

I will remind everyone of that -- what was it? -- 16 20 point exit poll lead for Kerry in PA in 2004?

This year? 4 points. A smattering of 2 and 1 point leads in other must-win states.

McCain-Palin seems to be exceeding Bush's performance in red Ohio counties, too.

I would not set yourself up for heart-break.

I will tell you now, that it's sort of safe, that I have thought we'd lose, badly, for a month, and not a lot has changed that.

I am now changing my position to "There's a chance." But only to that.

There is a possibility these exit polls are better this year. Maybe not a lot better, but better. There's also the possibility that Republicans, who dodged exit pollsters in the past, are more willing to say "Hell no, I stand against the socialist and with John the War Hero, Sarah the Reformer, and Joe the Plumber."

So you can't simply write off our trailing in key states as a big pile of nothing at all.

However... it is a hell of lot better than I ever would have guessed.

Another Reminder: And this is mostly true-- I remember seeing this when I checked out my own blogging in 2004. Virginia was supposedly too close to call, and that surely was a bad sign for Bush--

Listen, morons-- Virginia was essentially called for Kerry in 2004 for the identical exit number. He lost by EIGHT AND A HALF FUCKING POINTS.

That's from, uh, "Bat Chain Puller." I don't even want to know.

Drudge Claiming... +15 in PA for Obama. Not sure if he has later information than Gawker, or what.

But then, exit polls showed a +20 Kerry edge in PA. Turned out Kerry won, but by 5 2.5 or so.

Exit Polls Are Still Crap... But I have a tip that they're not nearly as close as Gawker claims.

The actual exits, I'm told, do show the 15 point PA lead, plus substantial leads in many other battleground states.

Word from McCain: Florida in good shape, other swing states too close to call.

Posted by: Ace at 03:51 PM | Comments (351)
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Anticipation? Anxiety?

Don't know. It's a jump, on election day. Biggest ever, if it's an indicator I know which way the markets are swinging.

They're Swinging on One Less Unknown [ace]: They always jump after (or on) election day. Part of it just that one unknown is taken out of the equation -- even if we elect a socialist, at least we now know we've elected a socialist.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 02:50 PM | Comments (4)
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2004: 11 percent.

2008: 10 percent.

They are probably coming in greater numbers, of course, as this turnout will almost certainly exceed 2004's (and by a fair amount, too).

Still. It's a reason for some small amount of optimism.

Posted by: Ace at 02:40 PM | Comments (36)
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At least in Ohio and Indiana. In Virginia, late-deciders broke by 10 for McCain.

Late-deciding voters also agreed "strongly" with the statement, 'Yes, I'd like to listen to Phish and form a hacky-circle."

What does this mean? Well, on Obama's side, it means nothing. People know the socially desirable answer -- "I chose late to vote against racism!" -- and are eager to share it with college-age exit pollsters who are largely of liberal-skewing demographics.

On the Virginia side...

Posted by: Ace at 02:36 PM | Comments (11)
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Not sure if this is just goosing urgency, or genuine we-might-lose-this-thing alarm:

"Hello, this is Jeff Blodgett from the Minnesota for Obama campaign. Our initial data shows this election is significantly closer than the polls predicted. We are putting out an urgent call for volunteers... We are organized groups to knock on doors at five P.M., or earlier if you can, for our final GOTV operation." This was followed by different numbers to call based on your residence.

Subtext: Vote a second or third time.

And See... the previous tip of "real hope" for retaining written-off Iowa.

Posted by: Ace at 02:25 PM | Comments (28)
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Possibly tens of thousands of votes. The ballots were mailed out very late to our servicemen -- and McCain is suing to force the state to count them if they were sent out by today, even if they don't arrive by the deadlines.

The hearing will take place on November 10.

Could be Florida all over again.

On the other hand, we could just win. Vote.

Statement:

“We are pleased that the judge has ruled to preserve the ballots cast by our men and women in uniform currently serving overseas. This will help to ensure that local election officials do not destroy or dispose of these ballots before the court has had an opportunity to rule on our complaint. The McCain-Palin campaign strongly believes that no military ballot should be discarded as a result of a failure on the part of several counties and independent cities to mail ballots to service members in a timely manner. We believe without exception that the servicemen and women on the front lines protecting our freedoms deserve every opportunity to make sure their vote counts.” –Gail Gitcho, McCain-Palin spokesman

Background:

One example included in the lawsuit came from a young Marine serving in Western Anbar Province, Iraq. He applied for his ballot from Arlington County in August; they did not send it until September 29th; and he did not receive it until last week. There is no way his ballot will make it back to Arlington County by Tuesday--it takes at least 12-18 days for a ballot to be returned from Iraq.

The counties and independent cities implicated in this lawsuit include Arlington County, City of Chesapeake, Chesterfield County, Fauquier County, Loudoun County, City of Richmond, City of Suffolk, City of Virginia Beach. Although every federal and state agency recommend that absentee ballots be sent to overseas military members at least 45 days before the election, many of these counties sent out the ballot with less than 35 days before the election.

Posted by: Ace at 02:21 PM | Comments (9)
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I really don't care about them. They mean nothing.

But if you want to put up tips, have at it.

They're being released now.

Posted by: Ace at 02:06 PM | Comments (104)
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Iowa, the lost cause state, the red state guaranteed to turn blue.

A McCain insider says: In play. "Real hope" for an unexpected retention.

Not a Joe Namath guarantee by any stretch -- but reports of the death of the Republican tilt of Iowa have been greatly overstated.

If you're an Iowa Republican... you may want to make sure you vote, and get your neighbors to vote.

Posted by: Ace at 01:47 PM | Comments (77)
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