1

And here are some more direct links to some of the HA summations.

There are interesting summations and links here at Aussie Andrew Bolt's MSM blog.

And at editor Tim Blair's MSM blog.

And, apparently, the Hadley head has admitted the emails and other documents are genuine.

2 Steve McIntyre's climateaudit.org site is hosed big time. 

If this is for real, and the LSM is unsuccessful in covering it up, then we are talking weapons-grade scandal here. 

3 I guess the only way to gauge authenticity of e-mails is to study the scale of their "lies"; if thousands of e-mails seem to indicate manipulation of data, that sounds pretty good to me.

4 Generally, the wheels are falling off of that particular bus.

There is a new scientific method that seems to be employed recently, which I call the social scientific method.  You develop a hypothesis.  You test it against data.  If the data prove the hypothesis wrong, you declare the data to be in error.

The problem with the current global warming hypothesis is that it is not standing up to actual data.  It hasn't for a long time, actually.  The "data" used for testing come from computer models.

5

The Gaia cult is nothing less than a Godless state religion.  The Hadley crew is not talking about research methodology they are discussing gaming the data because the observations do not match their pet theory....that is precisely the inverse of science and is what I call "$cience"....

 

From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , “Philip D. Jones” , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer

Hi all

Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming ? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low.

This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).

Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking EarthÂ’s global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)
***

The fact is that we canÂ’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we canÂ’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate

Notice in the above the crew laments the inability to measure properly to get the data that supports the theory that in theory was based on observable data....

the entire posit is dogma not observation.

6

Great, tinyurl isn't linking properly using the link icon in the toolbar, so...

http://tinyurl.com/ycfxmwq

"HadleyCRU says leaked data is real.

"The director of Britain's leading Climate Research Unit, Phil Jones, has told Investigate magazine's TGIF Edition tonight that his organization has been hacked, and the data flying all over the internet appears to be genuine.

"In an exclusive interview, Jones told TGIF, 'It was a hacker. We were aware of this about three or four days ago that someone had hacked into our system and taken and copied loads of data files and emails.'

"'Have you alerted police?'

"'Not yet. We were not aware of what had been taken.'"

Jones says he was first tipped off to the security breach by colleagues at the website RealClimate.

"Real Climate were given information, but took it down off their site and told me they would send it across to me. They didn't do that. I only found out it had been released five minutes ago."

7

4 AmishDude,

First let me say glad you're here....

Crichton(rest his soul) nailed what you are discussing in 'State of Fear'.  What we are seeing is the destruction of the scientific method, and when you strip the hard cross-x and method from science what you are left with is neo-Lysenkoism where "$cience" is mated with the state's big gun to inflict dogma on the populace....

I don't need a new religion mine is 2000 years old.

8 "Massaging the data" with "representative samples." At best an illustration of bad science. At worst an exhibition in corruption.

Knowing the actors and the political movement to impose vast economic redistribution to select persons and populations, I'm leaning to the latter. That science is settled.

9 Oh, and this is a blow for actual science to boot.  For those who worry about intelligent design or even the existence of religion generally, consider what will happen when the most pervasive scientific theory of our time, one that has demanded massive government intervention and lifestyle change, banned lightbulbs, developed a whole secular proto-religion turns out not just to be a flawed scientific theory, but a hoax?

On the other hand, the Korean stem cell fraud didn't kill that industry either, so who knows.

10 U R doing it wrong.

11

8 AD,

It is the latter, the Green Guerillas are attempting to use $cience to pick winners and losers in the economy, when you grant Captain Eloquence of the USS Hope'n'Change the ability to declare a national emergency with draconian economic hampering powers to combat a non-existant problem you are running a shakedown that John Gotti and Carlos Gambino would have loved to have run.

12 Well that the earth is warming up is plain to see. I am from Holland and Al Gore says that I will have very wet feet in the future.

We will see about that. In Holland we are concerned but also pretty smart when it comes to water.

13 I like that RealClimate's immediate reaction was to hide the data.

14

12 nlp,

That the Earth is warming up, and cooling down is something that has occured since Earth has had weather....

the issue and crux of the religion being formed is that man through his sin of consumption of energy has angered the nature gods to the point that we must embrace a neo-luddite lifestyle or we are all doomed, doomed I say!

ps Holland has had water issues its whole life yes?

15 He's a witch!  Burn him!

16

"Massaging the data" with "representative samples." At best an illustration of bad science. At worst an exhibition in corruption.

We already have an example of this:  The selection of tree ring data that resulted int he hockey stick.  If the whole data set was used--no uptick in temps--NONE.

 

17 I don't know why you wingnuts are so riled up.

The climate folks are having trouble with data because all their number crunchers are currently working for recovery.gov.

18 One of the commenters on Air Vent late last night linked to this site where the entire leaked/hacked file is available for download (just passing it on, not vouching for it):

http://tinyurl.com/yzw447a

19
"Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?”
-Phil Jones, 2005, in response to Warwick Hughes's, an Australian scientist, request for Jones' twenty-five years of climate data.

fuck you, Phil Jones

fuck you, hard

20
_{I don't like the rug being pulled out from under when I just post something in a dead thread.}

21 It seems to me the earth had an ice age and subsequent thaw, both pretty large climate events, happened before the first car rolled off the assembly line.

As I've stated before, liberalism is more a state of the heart than politics, and AGW is a prime example.  Anything to replace God. 

If nothing else, perhaps these emails will draw more scrutiny to the AGW freaks. 

22
There is a new scientific method that seems to be employed recently, which I call the social scientific method.  You develop a hypothesis.  You test it against data.  If the data prove the hypothesis wrong, you declare the data to be in error.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 20, 2009 09:58 AM (T0NGe)

The one area of disagreement I would have with you here is that this is particularly new. It is a very easy error for scientists to fall into, and I've personally seen it in fields of study outside of climate science. It is much easier to swim with the consensus then to fight it in the best of circumstances and scientists are no different then others in this regard, contrary to popular opnion.

Of course climate science is far from the best of circumstances. The global media damns skeptics and lauds those who come up with the most dire predictions of global warming. Further, one's job often ends up requiring you to sign up with the warmists.

And actually, is there any single part of the problem with the state of climate science that skepticism is seen as a character flaw?

23 The selection of tree ring data that resulted int he hockey stick.  If the whole data set was used--no uptick in temps--NONE.

And that got no attention outside of "denier" blogs. 

24 Thank you, Sven.

that is precisely the inverse of science and is what I call "$cience"

Basically, if you want your discipline to get huge grants, you either argue that you will cure all of human suffering (alchemical science) or your research will save the world from catastrophy (Chicken Little science).

I use the alchemy example because the alchemist would usually seek funding from the king or a local lord for his "research".  His main goal (and the reason for his funding) was the philosopher's stone.  He would do a demonstration for the king and place a few flakes of gold leaf in the bottom of his fire.  He would show this to the king as evidence that he was close to discovering the stone that would turn lead into gold.  The king would fund the alchemist and so it would continue.

I find that to parallel a lot of the grant process now.

Just yesterday, I attended a talk by a prominent computer scientist and phylogeneticist.  He talked about how the breakthrough in his research came about because of the work of mathematicians on chordal graph theory.

Now this phylogeneticist and, in fact, his whole profession is awash in grants.  Meanwhile the methods that they use were not developed by any serious graph theorists.  People who work on chordal graph theory usually are under the radar screen, they never get research grants and work at small colleges.  I certainly didn't take the work seriously because serious people didn't work on it.  Moreover, this phylogeneticist's research could have been enhanced by more and better people working on the mathematics behind it.

But because it's hard to sell mathematics, many mathematicians toil in obscurity, producing exactly what the well-funded scientists use.

25
It's being reported today that parts of England are experiencing floods of "biblical proportions."

Interesting choice of words, no? It's almost like an appeal to the God-fearing among us to shape up because God is pissed and is punishing us for what we're doing to Earth.

The Left is really trying hard to make their radical policies appear to be both economically appealing as well as a morally superior solution.

Health care reform, Cap & Trade, etc.: all touted as both morally the right thing to do and a way to create jobs.

26 I agree, AmishDude, that's why my degree is in phrenology.

27 This AGW matter is not providing very good insight on climate except that our models are junk. but it sure a hell is providing a clear look at Human Nature. Too many scientists think of hypotheses as girlfriends, and when they see signs she is cheating on them they clamp their hands on their ears and yell "Lalalalalalala". Plus, there is no shortage of sneaky, greedy, egotistical, stubborn, asswipes in Science, either.

28

I agree, AmishDude, that's why my degree is in phrenology.

Keep your stink Canadian hands away from my head, dude.

29 27, I blame progressive rock.

30

And actually, is there any single part of the problem with the state of climate science that skepticism is seen as a character flaw?

Posted by: 18-1 at November 20, 2009 10:19 AM (7BU4a)

That is a major problem.  Scientists are supposed to be skeptical.  With the grant system the way that it is, there is definitely a motivation to have the profession produce "results" that it can sell to the real world.

Mathematics has still not suffered, though.  I guess the fact that proof is required helps a lot.  There's also no motivation to prop up bad research by others.  There's a perverse joy in finding flaws.

31 NPR was spinning the recession as being good for the climate this morning. They reported that due to the economic slowdown, carbon emissions were way down for the U.S. over the past year... Another disincentive for the Democrats to really repair the economy.

"Don't work - save the planet!"

32 26 I agree, AmishDude, that's why my degree is in phrenology.

Posted by: andycanuck at November 20, 2009 10:25 AM (2qU2d)

That's too bad.  Still, it's more serious than psychology, so you have that.

33 FIGHTING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE !

U.S. Military Inc. is already in the climate change business big time. The single biggest burner of petroleum on this planet, its high-flying aircraft routinely rend Earth's protective radiation shielding with nitrous oxide emissions, while depositing megatons of additional carbon, sulfur and water particles directly into the stratosphere - where they will do three-times more damage than CO2 alone. Go figure. A single F-15 burns around 1,580 gallons an hour. An Apache gunship gets about one-half mile to the gallon. The 1,838 Abrams tanks in Iraq achieve five gallons to the mile, while firing dusty radioactive shells that will continue destroying human DNA until our sun goes supernova. A single non-nuclear carrier steaming in support burns 5,600 gallons of bunker fuel in an hour - or two million gallons of bunker oil every 14 days. Every four days, each carrier at sea takes on another half- million gallons of fuel to supply its jets. The U.S. Air Force consumed nearly half of the Department of Defense's entire fuel supply in 2006, burning 2.6 billion gallons of jet fuel aloft. While flying two to five-hour chemtrails missions to reflect incoming sunlight and slow global warming, a single KC-10 tanker will burn 2,050 gallons of highly toxic jet fuel every hour. The larger and older KC-135 Stratotanker carries 31,275 gallons of chemtrails and burns 2,650 gallons of fuel per hour. The EPA says that each gallon of gasoline produces 19.4 pounds of CO2. Each gallon of diesel produces 22.2 pounds of CO2.
Total it up and routine operations by a military bigger than all other world militaries combined puts more than 48 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year. Nearly half that total could be eliminated by ending the wars against Iraq and Afghanistan.
Nobody knows how Earth's atmosphere works. It is so big, so complex and so unpredictable, even real-time nano-snapshots are ancient history as soon as they are taken. Advances in the science of chaos are critical to this endeavor.
Good luck. Not even a 48-hour weather forecast can be made without constant surprises...because they cannot be graphed in a cause-and-effect straight line, chaotic “non-linear” weather processes can morph unexpectedly, defying predicted weather modification inputs. Just ask Beijing.

34

32 Amish Dude,

Phrenology ranks up there with Lysenko's "let's dip the seeds in cold water and they'll grow faster" botanical analysis....

of course all of them trump sociology and urban planning as disciplines.

35 Hey, AGW nuts! Hypotheses are supposed to be tested, not worshipped.

36

They reported that due to the economic slowdown, carbon emissions were way down for the U.S. over the past year

Meaning it was still a small movement in a trace gas in the atmosphere that can be wiped out by a single volcanic burp.

Everything I just wrote is true.

But what do I know?  I have no Nobel Prize.

37

largely forgotten part of Ike's Military-industrial complex speech:

The prospect of domination of the nationÂ’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific technological elite.

38

35,

The Granola Guerillas are not in the $cience Business, anymore than Pol Pot was in the population growth one.

39 andycanuck

You should try snipurl instead of tinyurl.

40 Uh yeah, they hacked my interview too. Added a whole buncha zeros to my estimate of the temps at the center of the earth.


Yeah, that's the ticket.

41

Nearly half that total could be eliminated by ending the wars against Iraq and Afghanistan.

That is a poor word choice.

42

36,

Heh I literally showed an acolyte of the watermelon faith the percentages in play at a football game this year....the ref blew a snot rocket at the one yard line....

 

told the nut: that snotball is likely wider than the percentage we are discussing scrapping our way of life for....

person was not amused.

43
I look at the Global Warmists as 18th century doctors and the world economy as George Washington.

44 But what do I know?  I have no Nobel Prize.

Well, the science one won't be awarded to you until about three decades after you published your work.  But there's a Peace Prize in every 1 in six boxes of Cracker Jack, so keep munching!

45

I saw this and couldnÂ’t believe it. While never really buying into the AGW theory, I none the less though that the individuals pushing it so hard were guilty of groupthink Â…. now it looks like they are nothing more than a bunch of frauds.

 

Too bad Michael Criton isnt alive for this.

46 Watts Up With That has a huge topic on this already with many, many damning email exerpts in the comments.

This is huge.

47

of course all of them trump sociology and urban planning as disciplines.

Posted by: sven10077 at November 20, 2009 10:36 AM (P/PyQ)

Here's the academic suffix hierarchy in order of seriousness:

-ics

-engineering

-istry

-ology

-science (if you have to say it's a science, it isn't)

-studies

Exceptions: computer science is an -engineering and theoretical computer science is an -ics.  Economics is an -istry (finance and econometrics) or a -science (all the rest).

48 18-1@22,

Yes, being an industry heretic does require risk. Humans, even scientists - if they can be called "human" - are risk averse.

I've observed the same thing. When the momentum of any theory, however justified, builds (and the subsequent grant money follows), the pressure to succumb to groupthink rises. Those with middling skills will follow the leaders because it is professionally safer. Only the most accomplished can successfully challenge momentum even if they aren't the ones to pioneer a contrary interpretation of data. Those would-be heretics who don't yet have a lasting legacy to fall back on inevitably find tougher sledding and more critical review.

I've observed many researchers whose main function seems to be to scan trending research as opportunists and not as cutting edge thinkers. You look for the funding first, then observe the trend, then do your research with one eye open looking to see what/how your "competition" is doing. If your own data disagrees with consensus, the pressure is to distrust the data and repeat until the consensus is matched. Not all science is good science, obviously. In fact there's an enormous amount of waste. Now we see fraud. Of epic proportion.

Research, even and especially of the academic type, is every bit the industry that a Halliburton is. And now we find Exhibit A of an Enron model.

49

50 Integrity is like virginity.

51 Well, the science one won't be awarded to you until about three decades after you published your work.

Ahem: "Buy low.  Sell high."

I'm waiting for the folks that award the economics prize.  I'll be in my trailer.

52 Once freed from the quaint shackles of integrity, all things become possible.

53 Research, even and especially of the academic type, is every bit the industry that a Halliburton is. And now we find Exhibit A of an Enron model.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at November 20, 2009 10:45 AM (3nPNg)

I approve of this analogy.

54 Scientists are supposed to be skeptical.

The main criteria of a valid theory is disproof -- that is, that your theory can be proven false through experimentation or axiomatic reasoning. Valid theories survive by not being invalidated by experiment.* Most "climate change" models cannot be tested outside of computer simulations due to the dearth of reliable historical samples and the long time-scales involved, and even computer-generated models have shown highly-variable results between runs (the "butterfly effect" at work). Predicting global weather over long periods of time has proven to be an incredibly complex problem.

Much of the so-called "consensus" on global warming is no consensus at all; it was a relatively few scientists amplifying each others' remarks, and the enlistment of an army of credulous politicians, speechmakers, and documentarians. There is a lot of discomfort in the scientific community at the messianic nature of the AGW debate, and the shoddy scientific methodology used to prop it up.

*One of the main beefs I have with the trendy "string theory" physical model is that it may be unprovable in principle: there may be no way to conduct an experiment to disprove it. That makes string theory a belief system, not a scientific argument. And yet many cosmologists speak of it as if it had already been established as fact. I see the same kind of thing in the climate debate.

55

Hey... isn't that one of my pictures I take when riding my bike?  CJ.

 

 

LOL

56 I think this is more of a Bre-X model rather than Enron.  Enron functioned as a real business for a little while.  Bre-X was fraud right from the start.

57 We know they fudge the data.

But this is showing that there is an open conspiracy to fudge the data.

We're not dealing with liars, we're dealing with an industry of liars.

And their lies are being used to enslave us.

58 Honestly the worst parts about this is the fact they admitted they were destroying/hiding data from the FOI people. Some of the people in those emails could go to jail over this.

And it would be awesome.

59

Hahahahahaha!

Not only did I make millions but I got a Nobel and worldwide fame outa this.

Suckit Madoff - you got nothin on me.

60

Of course, you'd say that, Circa (Insert Year Here), you have the brainpan of a stage coach tilter. And my fingers have just been in the pink, not the stink.

61 Most "climate change" models cannot be tested outside of computer simulations

They can be code reviewed (which I have done with several used by NOAA and found them very deficient in their computational math methods) and validated in the sense that they either do or do not produce "correct" output for the inputs given and assumption made.

Validating the assumptions and data are another exercise entirely.

I remain unconvinced that the people who write the code for these models REALLY know what they're doing when it comes to computational math. 

62 Promoting untestable hypotheses is ok, but not so in Science. Period. Every "scientist" who promotes this crap should have his pocket protecter burned, his Dr. Quest decoder ring smashed, and his lab coat dyed a very gaudy pink. And no more hot grad students for you!

63 I think cap and tax and copenhagen were dying anyway. Would like to urge everyone to contact their senators and urge them to vote no on cloture on that socialist/facist monstrosity. They are talking about voting Saturday.

64 @62

PA, many of the emails detail how they're doctoring their findings so they match each others, or remove the "MWP".

For laypersons, MWP is the Medieval Warm Peroid. They're removing the fact the earth was warmer in the past then it is now and with less CO2 to boot.

65 "Scientists lied, global warming died"  That has a nice ring to it.

66 eman: "And no more hot grad students for you!"

I find your ideas on the concept of "hot grad students" intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter enroll in your seminar.

67 And their lies are being used to enslave us. ^ Hear, hear!

We can only hope that climate scientists who have scruples will now understand the disingenuous of these “leading lights” of their science, realize how much damage is being done to the credibility of their science, and shun them from science forever. We can hope they will re-examine their own science and realize how easy it has been to say “this looks like AGW,” but now realize good science demands they be more modest in admitting that there could be many possible explanations for their findings, not just AGW.
We can only hope these charlatan scientists (who no doubt truly believe in AGW, but who have clearly been willing to shade truth to support that belief) are brought into bright public scrutiny so that the entire AGW thesis can be shown to be just what it is: an unproven hypothesis.
The general public must turn their backs on AGW science and force politicians to abandon their dreams of world domination through carbon taxes. So many believe in the “green religion,” it will be difficult for many to believe that mankind’s economic activity and rapidly improving lifestyle is not “bad” for our earth. They want to believe that increasing wealth is bad. They want to believe that using nature (whether farming, fishing, logging, mining) is bad. They cannot differentiate which activities are truly destructive (over-fishing) and which are not (petroleum extraction and use).
Despite what these documents imply and the impact they might have, there is a long, long way to go before the worldview that so many people have, which allows politicians to believe they have the support to tax our very breath, is changed.

68

Of course, you'd say that, Circa (Insert Year Here), you have the brainpan of a stage coach tilter. And my fingers have just been in the pink, not the stink.

(And it looks like Ace's is having ISP issues, so I'll see you later in the late afternoon.)

69 PA, many of the emails detail how they're doctoring their findings so they match each others, or remove the "MWP".

Well, if I were an unethical scumbag and had b/millions in AGW research cash on the line to produce the "right answers", I'd do it by finding ever more ethereal and tenuous "proxies" until I hit upon some that matched the narrative perfectly, at which point you declare the usual ones "unreliable" or "too granular", etc. 

Everyone knows the length of petrified raccoon turd correlates directly to temperature, right?

70 I remain unconvinced that the people who write the code for these models REALLY know what they're doing when it comes to computational math.

I think pretty much everywhere that climate "science" touches on anything verifiable it's been found lacking.  Steve MacIntyre got into "denialism" because he found their use of statistical methods was screwed, and it later turned out the FORTRAN implementations of their screwed-up methods were no prize either.

71

how much you wanna bet the left suddenly decides that it is bad to snoop, hack, leak, and grab information because it involves one of their golden calves?

72

Everyone knows the length of petrified raccoon turd correlates directly to temperature, right?

Oh, sure, when you say it, everyone agrees, but when I talked about it repeatedly IN CAPS in the ONT, everyone just looked away...

73

You people need sensitivity training to work on your scientifical correctness.

What? It's done wonders for politics.

74

#72

I like gambling, but I'm not a stupid gambler...

No bet on that one.

75

It's hard right now to the appreciate the scope of this.  But this is huge.

In the early 70's, you were a conspiracy nut if you said that the Pentagon was conspiring to hide info about the Vietnam War.  Then the Pentagon Papers came out, and everyone realized this was true.

Also, it was a crazy to claim that Nixon was personally involved in the low-level Watergate coverup - and then the Nixon tapes came out, and proved that it was true.

Now, it has looked crazy to say that not only is the theory of global warming wrong, but that there has been an international conspiracy that has pushing the fraud for political and financial reasons.

These e-mails prove that that is the case.  This is as big as the Pentagon Papers, as big as the Nixon Tapes.  Maybe bigger, since it's a worldwide scandal, not just an American one. 

76 which I have done with several used by NOAA and found them very deficient in their computational math methods

I've seen a lot of that -- particularly the habit of programmers to "fudge" problems that end up in asymptotic curves, infinite regresses, or duplicate-anomaly results. Programmers are highly prone to "just round it off" or "change the third decimal place; no one will notice" solutions to these kinds of problems. They often don't know how to interpret the data they're getting because that's not their field: all they know is what they're "supposed" to get, so they massage the software to get that answer.

And on the data-collection side, the data-sets are chock-full of absolute shit. Lots of the temperature variants are collected from stations next to large blackbody radiators (like parking lots) or natural reflectors or heatsinks; they do not take into account elevation, air pressure, or humidity; and the weather-stations themselves do not take representative samples. The USA has a much higher density of collectors than does, say, the Empty Quarter of Saudi Arabia or sub-Saharan Africa or the Andean areas of South America. So any temperature map is going to be badly skewed to northern-hemisphere, temperate-zone areas.

77 ZOMG HAX!

Heh, the "climatologist" admitted the emails were genuine. His defensive answer that he couldn't remember content of 10-year old email messages was admission enough of their genuine nature. Heh, this ought to stir up some controversy on the subject. Let's see if El Rushbo or Fox News finds this gem of a breaking story and runs with it. It will be the biggest scientific fraud story since Piltdown Man! (Another fraud also perpetrated by a UK scientist, although that is strictly coincidence.)

78
But,, I DID invent the Internet!

79 I downloaded the thing last night and have been into it for hours.

Stunning.

If its a fake, or has been tampered with, then it was a work of weeks or months! Someone (or several someones) would have to have had to have been seriously familiar with the whole AGW Alarmist community - including who the players are, their email addresses, locations, and recent pubs - and be more-than-just-conversant in the recent and current issues within the subject.

The absconding of the files has been confirmed by Jones and the Hadley Met office - so the "theft" did take place - and recently, apparently. That it was one or mor "hackers" has not been demonstrated yet. Most folks agree it had to have been one or more insiders - rather than "hackers".

The "documents" section - containing data, code, and results - has as-far-as-can-be-determined been found to be genuine. Cursory examination has shown that the data matches published data, and code matches that that has been published.

The "emails" section has - so far - been found to contain no contradictions, edits, or "taampering" of any kind. Jones himself has addressed one "damning" email - implicitly confirming that its genuine.

The MSM is (for the most part)presently marching lock-step, eyes forward, and ignoring the whole thing. But there are cracks developing: journalist realize that this is Pentagon-Paper level Pulitzer prize material.

Get out the popcorn: its gonna be an interesting weekend.

80
Fan, s**t; incoming!

81 can we please get a flaming skull for this sucker?

82 Skull! Skull! Skull!

After all, if this thing goes full public, political and academic careers are finished. An entire combined socio-economic ideology will be discredited. Doesn't that merit a few flames?

83
This is freakin beautiful. Can we start fucking chickenz?

84 particularly the habit of programmers to "fudge" problems that end up in asymptotic curves, infinite regresses, or duplicate-anomaly results.

"training the code" to "fix" "problems" is indeed pretty common.  I've seen plenty of that in the guts of operating system software.  Quite a bit of it happens during post release maintenance work where the "B team" has the maintenance sloughed off on them and the "A team" (who actually understood the mess) is on to sexier things than maintenance work.

However, at the time, my code review of the NOAA stuff was very focused on proper low level use of the floating point hardware itself.  IEEE 754 provides extensive configurability of the math unit to suit a wide range of situations from implementing a crude 4-banger as a class project through celestial navigation. 

To do many things, like series evaluation, and get really good results, you need to constantly be altering the rounding/chop characteristics of the chip.  I never saw that happening.  ANYWHERE.

You also want to know when the precision of some result has suffered due to the limitations of the hardware itself.  I never saw any code enabling the loss of precision exception.  ANYWHERE.

You also want to know when an INF/NaN is generated so the chip default of INF/NaN propagation doesn't pollute downstream results.  Never saw any checking for that either.

If you're not getting the lowest level shit right, nothing that comes after it is trustworthy, NOTHING -- even if your chalkboard methods are/were entirely correct.

85 Fake, but accurate.

86 Yeah I downloaded it too - if it's fake then someone put a LOT of effort into creating otherwise meaningless files.  There are things like peer reviews of journal articles that are otherwise humdrum and routine.  I agree with others that this seems more like a leak than a hack.  I feel sorry for the grad student/postdoc whose career is now ruined for performing this service.

87
>>72.how much you wanna bet the left suddenly decides that it is bad to snoop, hack, leak, and grab information because it involves one of their golden calves? Posted by: eddiebear

Prediction: The Global Warming scam keeps on truckin’, but a whole bunch of lefties suddenly become interested in the “ethics” surrounding the hacking of files.

88

I hope this will provide a reason or excuse for some Repulicans to recant their pro-AGW positions.

McCain, Grahamnesty etc really should be looking to climb down the mountain of AGW Bullshit.

89 Since none of this surprises me (though its reveal delights me), am I the only one with a serious interest in learning the hows and whys of whomever hacked/leaked this information, whether it was internal or external?

90

 but a whole bunch of lefties suddenly become interested in the “ethics” surrounding the hacking of files.

Yeah, kind of like ACORN.

Odd how if you stick to the straight and narrow, you aren't going to look like a fool if someone investigates you.

Or maybe that's just me.

91 I'm shorting bullshit, and going long truth.

92 chemjeff: "I feel sorry for the grad student/postdoc whose career is now ruined for performing this service."

Pretty damning and tragic, if this does pan out to be a leak (purposeful or otherwise), that the one who released the "methodolgy" of bad science and apparent fraud would be the one penalized by the scientific community.

Think about it for a moment. The one potential hero may soon be perceived to be professionally radioactive. Climatologists should give this person an award and a chair somewhere for having the integrity to release all the data. The word "service" is totally applicable. Careers should be destroyed. The leaker's? His/hers should be deified.

The real academics better step up and protect the truth or their own reputations will be at risk.

93 And no more hot grad students for you!

Posted by: eman at November 20, 2009 10:57 AM (lokmN)

Wait?  Hot grad students?  In what field?  This ain't anthropology, you know.

94 >93
Is there a Nobel Prize for leaking/hacking?

95 sickinmass@95,

Not that I'm aware, but they could create one de novo. I mean, they made up data, right? Surely they can make up an award. (I keed, I keed.) Maybe they could borrow an IT sector Whitehat Award.

96 here's a current link to the files for anyone who's interested:

http://tinyurl.com/yzfy6gj

97 btw, the "RulesOfTheGame" pdf is striking in terms of outlining "strategy" and its insistence on "winning."

98 @95 sickinmass

Is there a Nobel Prize for leaking/hacking?

Yeah.  That hack of a kenyan princess is getting one for the anal leakage that spews from the hole in the bottom of his face.

99
A couple of things:

1.  When the leaks are validated, they need to be hung like a burning tire around the necks of every dickweed who ever pushed AGW.  They deserve merciless teasing and bullying at least until they remove themselves from public life.  The best outcome is they each cobain themselves a steaming hot cup of lead shot.

2.  The underlying enabler for this level of fraud is that government-funded research long ago turned the corner from being appropriation of scarce resources to address known problems to a guaranteed stream of money in search of problems to address.  This is a natural consequence of automatically carrying funding levels from year to year.

100 There's exactly one thing I want found in this haystack.

Dr. Phil Jones had some data that he didn't make public when he published the paper discussing it. Polite requests, then not-so-polite requests, followed by requests from fellow climate scientists, followed by several FOIA-like legal requests led to Phils response of: "The dog ate my homework." That is: I've lost the data, it was so long ago, yak, yak, yak.

If this particular batch of data is one of these 3500 files, then Dr. Jones deliberately filed a false FOIA report.

False legal documents tend to be crimes.

So... is it in here?

101

I have a feeling that as huge as this news is, so will be the effort to bury it. A new global disaster is surely being manufactured as we speak to take attention away from this story.

102 Frauds????

LOL, some of us have been calling this a fraud since the second "error" was discovered.

103
I've called it a fraud since I first heard of it.  I fell for the "new Ice Age" crap when I was a pre-teen, and I've been ashamed ever since.

Anyone stupid enough to believe that human activity of the last three centuries can cumulatively impact climate to within even two orders of magnitude of the impact of the sun's natural variability or a megavolcano's blowing its top has no freaking concept of scale and should learn to shut the hell up.

104

"had a bit of data and emails hacked and then posted online"

Actually 158MB of files including nearly 1100 emails, especially those originating with Jones and Briffa of East Anglia.

Allegations of manipulation by the hacker are untenable, requiring far too much insight and years of work. 

105 Everyone should tweet "GlobalWarminghoax"... make this go viral.

106 @85 Hey purple, you do realize that we speak a language called english in this country don't you? 

107 108: No engrish spoken here, were all learning laptopbatterese.

108 @85 Hey purple, you do realize that we speak a language called english in this country don't you?

Layman's translation: "their shit was incompetent and weak"

109 Here's one of the many money quotes: Obviously, under no circumstances should any of this get back to Pielke. Now why is that? 'cause Pielke would rip you a new one?

110 Stand by for a storm of "Evil Haxorz!" reporting from the Usual Suspects...

111 Re: Peer Review

You don't ask the author who he'd like to review the paper, or if you do it's to get a list of people to avoid. You give it to his worst "enemies" in the field, knowing that they'll give it a very thorough going-over and not hesitate to point our errors, large and small.

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