December 12, 2009

Homogenizing Nashville to Hide the Decline
— Ace

If I'm reading the chart right (and I think I am), below shows not the temperature in Nashville, but the adjustments made to the temperature, going from raw readings to "homogenized" adjusted numbers. The scale on the left shows you the size of the adjustments.

You will notice that all early temperatures are adjusted downwards, which, in effect, adjusted the current temperature quite a bit upwards. (But note the current temperatures are barely being adjusted here; it's the older ones being pushed down.)

Here is the true trend in real temperatures vs. the supposed trend when the numbers are "homogenized."

Nashville's been trending quite a bit colder -- but once we homogenize, we get a slight upward trend.

How many of the world's weather stations are similarly homogenized to show trends that don't exist at all but for manipulation>

Full story at Watt's Up With That? I only do pictures.

Posted by: Ace at 04:47 PM | Comments (62)
Post contains 162 words, total size 1 kb.

1 I like homo-genizin' better.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at December 12, 2009 04:49 PM (muUqs)

2 The unmolested data also shows a mere 0.4 degrees Celsius drop over 120 years. The y-axis scale is too magnified. In a lab setting this would be regarded as a steady temperature.

Posted by: eman at December 12, 2009 04:53 PM (iU0au)

3 In a lab setting this would be regarded as a steady temperature.
Posted by: eman at December 12, 2009 08:53 PM (iU0au)

By AGW standards, though, it's: OMG, NASHVILLE IS GOING TO ICE OVER TOMORROW!!!!ELEVENTY!!!!

Posted by: AmishDude at December 12, 2009 04:56 PM (ItSLQ)

4 "How many of the world's weather stations are similarly homogenized to show trends that don't exist at all but for manipulation?"


The answer is "bleeploads."

The reasoning for adjusting the past not the present appears to be "But here we agree with the satellites well, so the errors must be in the historic data." Ignoring the fact that a thermometer with a 0.1C error in 1900 (a mercury thermometer) is essentially just as useful as the fancies current weather station at measuring temperatures fifty miles away.

There's a set of plots by NOAA showing exactly what the net effect of each type of adjustment is - and they're most all strongly in the positive-slope direction. So "Urban Heat Island", the idea that a thermometer inside a small village near the barbeque isn't a good representative of the 100x100miles full of trees. So... adjust the historical record down. That makes loads of sense, but that's what they're doing.

Posted by: Al at December 12, 2009 04:57 PM (0lyUI)

5 Spanier and Easterling are yet hiding in the snow.

Posted by: dr kill at December 12, 2009 04:57 PM (fnXhn)

6 Why Nashville only?  Lets see what happened the the other cities in Tennessee.. Oh! I see, data not available eh. Didn't have the necessary funds to cook the data.

Posted by: mystry at December 12, 2009 04:57 PM (kmgIE)

7 Homogenizing dairy good, temperature data not so much.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at December 12, 2009 04:57 PM (PNqW6)

8 If you bing:"ghcn cheifio" you can turn up a fellow who has been essentially marching around the world doing exactly this examination.

Posted by: Al at December 12, 2009 04:58 PM (0lyUI)

9

Ace, of course past temperatures are dropping.  As any child could tell you, things cool over time.  This is due to the laws of thermodynamics and is beyond question.  Science is built on the assumption that the past is as much subject to observable, testable, natural laws as the present, so the late 1800's and early 1900's can and must show a continual cooling trend.  Entropy wasn't invented just yesterday, you know.  This has to be taken into account when analyzing data, and such adjustments were long overdue.  Thank goodness that climatologists are now getting suffient funding to make such adjustments.

Woot.  Didn't that sound sciency?

I think I'll start a pool, betting how many days pass before a Hollywood actor echoes my spurious argument.

 

 

Posted by: George Turner at December 12, 2009 05:02 PM (mINv3)

10 Maybe Scientists need to take an Oath, like Doctors.

Posted by: eman at December 12, 2009 05:06 PM (iU0au)

11 So is the Grand Ol' Opry going to freeze over or what?

Posted by: dagny at December 12, 2009 05:07 PM (l4d3T)

12

It's the harmonizing that Nashville's known for.  And the occasional mullet. 

Well, things were colder a ways back--and everything was in black and white, people spoke in transatlantic accents, and a shiny dime could buy you steak and eggs and a bottle of sarsparilla down at ol' Holcomb's Diner.  But don't talk about the weather with Mabel. 

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at December 12, 2009 05:15 PM (DPM1U)

13 Ace, Your graphs must be upside down.

Posted by: Ed Begley Jr's recycled urine at December 12, 2009 05:15 PM (4iIhs)

14 With all due repect to my climate scientist colleagues, fauck yu. 

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at December 12, 2009 05:17 PM (DPM1U)

15 My bwain huwts.

Posted by: Village Idiot at December 12, 2009 05:18 PM (LKkE8)

16 Can someone point me (heh) to an erect female nipple study? Fuck those tree rings, I'm tired of tree rings.

Posted by: Prof M Mann at December 12, 2009 05:18 PM (fnXhn)

17 Is there one institution in Western Civilization worthy of trust? Or are trustworthy people scattered amongst liars, and we have to push and pull and twist to get to the truth?

Posted by: eman at December 12, 2009 05:19 PM (iU0au)

18 We morons live all over the world. Funny that nobody notices the new heat, the new high water levels, or that lack of winter. For us here on the Jersey coast, it's been just the opposite. Summers are cool and short, spring and fall have been cool and short. Winters suck bigtime. I was 5 feet above mean high tide 35 years ago when I bought this house, and I am still 5 feet above mean high tide. You don't need to be a climate scientist (and I studied this in college), you just need to look out the window.

Posted by: trainer at December 12, 2009 05:19 PM (of736)

19 I'm in comment formatting HELL

Posted by: trainer at December 12, 2009 05:20 PM (of736)

20

Doctor Zero has a great post over at Hot Air.

..it's sort of a cross between an open letter to the GW cultists /dishonest climate scientists and a manifesto of how we will beat back their lies and propaganda

Posted by: beedubya at December 12, 2009 05:24 PM (AnTyA)

21 Is Nashville where Al Gore's mega-footprint house is?

Posted by: logprof at December 12, 2009 05:24 PM (I3Udb)

22 Whew baby, is it ever hot down here.  23F the last two nights.  Up to about 42F right now. 

I'm in underwear and socks only.  I might open a window.

Posted by: RTH615 at December 12, 2009 05:25 PM (Rytlc)

23 21 Spotted Algore uses about 10 times the energy of anybody else around here.

Posted by: RTH615 at December 12, 2009 05:27 PM (Rytlc)

24 Are you trying to take away our free Danish whores?

C'mon, be a wingman!

Posted by: Horny Climate "Scientists" and Conference Attendees at December 12, 2009 05:31 PM (ngven)

25 @ 20 Good rant .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at December 12, 2009 05:35 PM (vKdhq)

26 Come on, Ace, the AP (AGW Propaganda) just said that while the science isn't perfect, it is sound.

Posted by: Kratos (on the back of Gaia, scaling Mt Olympus) at December 12, 2009 05:38 PM (otlXg)

27 Anyone seen me?

Posted by: Elvis at December 12, 2009 05:41 PM (uuhMV)

28 The question is moot.

Posted by: mayan calendar at December 12, 2009 05:45 PM (PD1tk)

29 Is any of the data accurate?  Any?

Bueller?  Bueller?

Posted by: alexthechick at December 12, 2009 05:48 PM (nwTNa)

30 It's Bush and the evangelical's fault that we are at this juncture with this AGW BS.

Litmus test question: Are you an Evangelical?

Oh you are! That's very righteous of you, now GTFO of here.

Posted by: Barbarian at December 12, 2009 05:49 PM (EL+OC)

31 29 Is any of the data accurate?  Any?

Bueller?  Bueller?

That depends how you define "accurate".  If the data supports AGW (after considering the Mann adjustment), it's "accurate".  If it doesn't, it is inaccurate.

Posted by: Kratos (on the back of Gaia, scaling Mt Olympus) at December 12, 2009 05:52 PM (otlXg)

32 23 21 Spotted Algore uses about 10 times the energy of anybody else around here.

Posted by: RTH615 at December 12, 2009 09:27 PM (Rytlc)

--*SIIIIIGH* These are the sacrifices I make for The Cause.

Posted by: Al Gore at December 12, 2009 05:55 PM (I3Udb)

Posted by: andycanuck at December 12, 2009 06:25 PM (2qU2d)

34 Remember ace, you don't have a Ph.D. in a related field, so you can't comment. And you don't read Latin, either, so you've got believe that the Bible says whatever we tell you it says.

Posted by: mr.frakypants at December 12, 2009 06:45 PM (pffBj)

35 Time to homogenize the Congressional incumbent re-election rate with the current unemployment rate.

Posted by: stuiec at December 12, 2009 06:48 PM (Ate22)

36 Glad to see a fellow TN Moron, RTH615....

Meet up at the Saucer is in order..

www.beerknurd.com


Posted by: frank rizzo at December 12, 2009 06:52 PM (CUGxW)

37 Maybe some of you fine peeps haven't noticed yet, but, LIBTARDS are complete fuck ups.  And dishonest.

Posted by: gus at December 12, 2009 06:56 PM (MaqIC)

38 If I had photoshop skillz I would make a pic of Phil Jones as a homeless man with a sign that says "will homogenize climate data for food"

Posted by: StrategicCorporalUSMC at December 12, 2009 07:37 PM (Nir5A)

39 Maybe the "Safe Schools" Czar gave the sciencytists one of those pamphlets on how to molest data and get away with it.

Posted by: Marionette de Chausette at December 12, 2009 07:41 PM (PBTsv)

40 Whaat?

All I know is, it looks fishy.


Posted by: PJ at December 12, 2009 07:44 PM (Qpxxz)

41 How did Obama and his nutcases get into office?
They seem to have gotten more votes than their opponents.

Talk about some data that needs "adjusting"!
-.

Posted by: Paul_In_Houston at December 12, 2009 07:48 PM (oxr2k)

42 The days of students asking that tests be graded on a curve (even though they had no idea what that really meant) are now going to be replaced by them asking that the grades be homogenized (even though it renders the grades meaningless).

Posted by: progressoverpeace at December 12, 2009 07:53 PM (A46hP)

43 Chaz has a post that will convert all you deniers (with video and everything). "Video The worst that could happen"






Fing most lame argument I've heard yet but the echo chamber loves it.


Posted by: Buzzsaw at December 12, 2009 07:55 PM (PNqW6)

44 The big jump there, was that when the Oilers moved to Nashville?

Posted by: Marionette de Chausette at December 12, 2009 08:12 PM (PBTsv)

45 oilers moved in 1998.  the spike in the early 60's is due to AlGoritron flunking out of vandy divinity.  For revenge, he has charged his energon cubes by draining the heat from our air.  we only had 4 days over 90 degrees this year.

Posted by: A.G. at December 12, 2009 08:32 PM (jBPzC)

46 46.
Only 4 days?  Prior to CRU adjustments, of course.

Posted by: Marionnette de Chaussette at December 12, 2009 08:38 PM (PBTsv)

47 More on Mann made global warming. His hockey stick is a weapon of math destruction.

Posted by: chicocano at December 12, 2009 08:57 PM (2n5cq)

48 HadCRUTS is Jonesified "value added" data too.
The GIS stuff is just pure crap, not even worth wrapping fish in.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at December 12, 2009 09:02 PM (NTwCr)

49 Ugh, Pandora is the worst spammer we've had yet.

Posted by: logprof at December 12, 2009 09:22 PM (I3Udb)

50 Don't mind me. I'm not a make-believe party crasher. I'm just making believe that I'm a Peeping Tom peeping in at your make-believe party, disappointed to see that all of the make-believe guests apparently made believe that they went home. Gee, I hope that there was a make-believe designated driver, unless, of course, those make believe guests were just making believe that they were drunk. Make believe late night parties on this website are usually so much fun. Gotta wonder if they're just a figment of my imagination, though.

Posted by: Tom at December 12, 2009 11:27 PM (Cta0m)

51 29 Is any of the data accurate?  Any?

Bueller?  Bueller?

No, it is all cooked

Posted by: Vic at December 13, 2009 01:09 AM (CDUiN)

52

The Bullshit Story of the day here from the AP. It came out late last night.

AP IMPACT: Science not faked, but not pretty

Link to story (Via RR; Fox is not carrying it)

 

Here are some excerpts, note that the actual story is very long:

LONDON— E-mails stolen from climate scientists show they stonewalled skeptics and discussed hiding data _ but the messages don't support claims that the science of global warming was faked, according to an exhaustive review by The Associated Press.

Right off the bat you can tell what the tenor of this article is going to be.  The E-mails AND data were stolen. Most people now concede that the evidence shows the information was leaked by a whistleblower.

The 1,073 e-mails examined by the AP show that scientists harbored private doubts, however slight and fleeting, even as they told the world they were certain about climate change. However, the exchanges don't undercut the vast body of evidence showing the world is warming because of man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Note more evidence of the AP bias here.  They did not say they examined any of the actual data.  They also use the term favored by the liberals “climate change” when it was found that actual temps were not increasing.

 

Some e-mails expressed doubts about the quality of individual temperature records or why models and data didn't quite match. Part of this is the normal give-and-take of research, but skeptics challenged how reliable certain data was.

 

One of the most disturbing elements suggests an effort to avoid sharing scientific data with critics skeptical of global warming. It is not clear if any data was destroyed; two U.S. researchers denied it.

Note again they refer ONLY to the E-mails themselves and they blame the difference in models and data as being the “give and take of research”.  There is no attempt made by AP to check why these differences occurred.  What actually occurred was differences in the actual raw data and the data used to input the so-called models.  They call it the give and take, I call it doctoring the data to make the output conform to the desired outcome.  Then there is the destroyed data statement. No, the e-mails said nothing about destroying raw data. Jones said that after the data was requested.

When the journal, Climate Research, published a skeptical study, Penn State scientist Mann discussed retribution this way: "Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal."

That skeptical study turned out to be partly funded by the American Petroleum Institute.

Anytime you see the statement that a study finding problems was funded by API (or any other non gov agency) you can pretty much write off the entire paper. This is a favorite whipping boy of the leftists.  The fact is in a true study  the source of funding should not make any difference. In addition, the API study released ALL of there data, methods, and work. The facts are that the AGW proponents have funding thousands of times higher than the skeptics and they refuse to release ANY of their work. The facts here speak for themselves.

As part of the AP review, summaries of the e-mails that raised issues from the potential manipulation of data to intensely personal attacks were sent to seven experts in research ethics, climate science and science policy.

Note once again, only the E-mails were sent to the “experts”.  The e-mails by themselves only show a small part of the problem.  The e-mails must be examined in light of the data that was also leaked, along with the work that has been done in parallel by what the AGW people call “skeptics”.

 

The facts are that the overwhelming body of evidence in which the actual work of the gov approved climate “scientists” have been examined it has been found that at every opportunity they have adjusted the raw data to match their desired outcome, they have cherry picked sample sources, they used temp and CO2 monitoring devices in bad locations, and in short done everything possible to influence the outcome to match their desired finding.

 

In short, the balance of the evidence shows that the AGW crap is a massive fraud.  What is sad is that the supposed “free press” has been captured by the socialist government bodies and has become an active cheerleader in the swindle.

 

The AP story can be summed up as “we only write about the E-mails and this is a whitewash”.

 

Posted by: Vic at December 13, 2009 03:23 AM (CDUiN)

53 We adjust our temperature data based on beard length as a reflection of insulation against cold.  Roman times, the Vikings, Ulysses S. Grant, all indicative of much colder temperatures.  Then, warming temperatures throughout the 20th century (fewer beards), a BIG dip in the late 60s (The Jerry Garcia Effect), and a steady increase since then.

We don't count goatees.  Because they're goatees.

It's science, wingnuts.

Posted by: Phil Jones and Michael Mann, SCIENTISTS! at December 13, 2009 04:35 AM (MMC8r)

54 http://tinyurl.com/yd3kea5

So screwed we are.

Posted by: Barbarian at December 13, 2009 05:21 AM (EL+OC)

55 Anybody here ever LOOKED at the HADCRUt3 data?

Posted by: Uriel at December 13, 2009 06:57 AM (+F8Li)

56 The fact that the word "adjust" is even in this 'data set' turns the whole thing on it's fuckin head.

These fuckers are doing ANYTHING to get the results they want and it's criminal.  Putting the global economy at risk just because some tree huggers think teh hoominz teh eevul.

Bastards

Posted by: Melodic Metal at December 13, 2009 07:14 AM (9QC0z)

57 the US NAvy thinks the planet is getting warmer and that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in 20 years and that their subs will no longer be safe from surface ships in an area that was extremely important to them. Perhaps they are less concerned with the local temps in Nashville.

Posted by: John ryan at December 13, 2009 07:18 AM (m0Q2u)

58 US NAvy thinks the planet is getting warmer and that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in 20 years and that their subs will no longer be safe from surface ships in an area that was extremely important to them.

They told you that personally I presume.  Actually the U.S. Navy has been getting out of the boomer business and never used the ice back for boomers to begin with.

Posted by: Vic at December 13, 2009 07:21 AM (CDUiN)

59 But the AP and Al Gore say the hacked emails do not change the fact that "the science is settled". 

Posted by: California Red at December 13, 2009 07:41 AM (Ukkga)

60 “You’re talking about a planet where global warming doesn’t happen, and I’m talking about a planet where global warming happens. This Is What It Sounds Like When Gods Die - Part 2

Posted by: naturalfake at December 13, 2009 07:54 AM (HylJ6)

61 US NAvy thinks the planet is getting warmer and that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in 20 years

Everyone who relies on the corrupt datasets will get the same false result.  That's the point.

doofus.

Posted by: toby928 at December 13, 2009 10:30 AM (PD1tk)

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Posted by: saç ekimi at December 17, 2009 02:53 AM (Xeu+z)

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