1

First.

 

2 Wait. That means I get something, right?

3 Stick it to the man!

4 The man must be under a lot of stress. I can sympathize.

5 Most cops would frame people if they weren't afraid of getting caught?  Is that a fact?  You gonna be shouting "Free Mumia" soon?

6 Tempted? yeah, tempted. If you know someone's committed murder but was smart and lucky and left no evidence, yeah, I'd say you'd be tempted. I would.

7

Isn't CRU where Jack Bauer works?  I don't know, I've never seen it.

8 Also, your analogy implies that man-made climate change is real, but the fraud and deception was done only to make the process of convincing the public more efficient.  I'm sorry, but your cop analogy blows.

9
In this case, we have 1, a large number of liked-minded zealots all convinced beyond convincing that their is a villain afoot,

And the villain is? I think it's White/Western/Judeo-Christian Culture/Capitalism.
You heard that 'the Western lifestyle is unsustainable,' right? Well, it's intolerable, not unsustainable, to the Left. This is scary shit, folks.

10 This kind of corruption is pervasive in other scientific disciplines as well, e.g., cosmology and astronomy.

11 And sometimes, despite all that, a cop will still resort to planting evidence to frame a guilty man.

Vindication!  Wait, what?

12 Well, not to split hairs here, but you said they'd be tempted, and MOST are usually stopped by the idea that they'd get caught.  Meaning they would do it if it wasn't for the fear of getting caught. 

13
Western lifestyle unsustainable, says climate expert Rajendra Pachauri

14
oh, and I predicted Jones & Mann will soon pull the "We're receiving death threats" card.

15

All I know is I think the idea of limiting my travel, making sure I have to flush twice when I use a toilet, limiting my shower water, etc., make me want to save carbon credits by throwing the climate change people in jail and let them not travel or bathe, force them to grow their own food, etc.  Just like they keep saying we should all do.

Starting with AlGore.

16 The best thing you can do with this story is to write your representatives demanding they take a stand, write your news outlets demanding they cover it and most important of all, tell everyone you know. We'll have to ACORN this one for the State Run Media like we did last summer.

17 >>>Also, your analogy implies that man-made climate change is real, but the fraud and deception was done only to make the process of convincing the public more efficient. I'm sorry, but your cop analogy blows. Rolling eyes. I swear, some people... It's idiotic. I write over and over about this, how I think it's bunk, and I have idiots telling me my analogies "imply" that GW is real, and I've erred badly for implyig such a thing. No, I am implying HOW THIS HAPPENED. I do not believe people wake up and say "HEY, I'm going to do some EVIL today!" If you believe that, you are childish and like your villains in darkest deepest black-hats, eh? I am offering a less-childish theory as to how someone who has not commited a crime or major breach in the past starts telling himself, "I'm not REALLY committing a crime, I'm just sweetening the evidence for something I know is true." Whatev's. Take a chill pill and stop fucking being on such vigilant patrol for my deviatons from what you consider ideological purity.

18 We need to stand side by side with our persecuted brothers across the pond. Witch hunts like this must not be tolerated!

19 I would.

And you'd get away with it.

I can't believe you think criminal trials are adversarial. You've seen some, right? Civil cases turn into real throwdowns sometimes, but everyday criminal trials are as hard-fought as Globetrotters games.

20 I swear to God some of you just like sitting there lying in wait for any thoughtcrimes.

21

"Sources said the interview concerned the theft of emails from the university and alleged death threats since the contents of the emails were released..."

... And no, you can't see my phone records. Why would I release them to people that will just try to use them to say I'm lieing?!?!

.

.

 *frantically pushing the erase button on his answering machine*

...Besides, I can't release them. They were "accidently" deleted.

Yea....... that's the ticket!

 

22 Poor Phil did not have a lawyer present, oops. Those statements made while helping the police are going to be on the record when they come back later. My bet is he just cleared up the provenance and history of the FOIA.zip file, in his zeal to find the guy who leaked it, he may have put some nails in his own coffin. (Also, why take him to the station -- little pressure, too record it?)

23 Two plain clothes officers arrived in an unmarked car in the afternoon and took Professor Phil Jones to Norfolk Police's headquarters in nearby Wymondham to give a statement.

Sources said the interview concerned the theft of emails from the university and alleged death threats since the contents of the emails were released, adding he was being treated as a 'victim of crime' rather than a suspect in any criminal investigation.

Whoa. This is like Twilight Zone material. Very scary. I don't think the 1930's have anything on what's coming down the pike for us. This is just pure crazy, with armed backing.

24

I say, Ace, old man. Is this your hobo head in this bag marked 'Property of Ace of Spades' wedged bwteen two cases of Valu-Rite Vodka?

Her Majesty's Government takes a very dim view of alcohol smuggling. You shall have to pay duty on those items.

25 It's really wearying to have you Thought Police following us around everywhere. No one asked you to serve as our own personal censors. Give it a rest already.

26 Ummmm guys, ...whats this water board doing here?

27 Scarcely able to believe his eyes, Ralph Melish looked down. But one glance confirmed his suspicions. Behind a bush on the side of the road, there was no severed arm, no dismembered trunk of a man in his late 50s, no head in a bag, there was nothing ...

28 He is a victim....a victim of his own arrogance.

29
Ace is using the word wearying a lot lately.

It's worrying me.

30 Twilight Zone episodes end after about a half hour.  This "statement" has been going on for 18 hours now, I ain't had anything to eat, and its freaking cold in this room.

31
Isn't that ironic?

Using the phrase wearying so often it becomes wearying?

32 I am using it a lot. It's a good word. "Tedious" is close but not quite right.

33
He is a victim....a victim of his own arrogance.

I can't decide if that sounds better with the voice of Jack Webb or Horatio Caine.

34

Oh, no! My glasses! I've broken my glasses so I can't read any FOI requests!

35 I'm still fond of the word firkin.

36 I'll give everyone up, I swear I will.  Just keep that Sullivan creep away from me.

37

I'm betting the CIA has some idle interrigators who'd love to find out if the raw data was really destroyed.

38
rhymes with merkin!

39 Ace, your post reminds me of back when O.J. was being tried, one of the pieces of evidence was a sock with a spot of blood on it. Just one problem, the blood stain had a perfectly symmetrical twin on the opposite side of the sock. Not what you'd expect if a drop of blood fell on a worn article of clothing, but exactly what you get if you put a few drops of blood on a piece of clothing that was just lying around. My father, a lawyer, pointed out how the police are sometimes prone to "helping" an investigation along. I wonder if the LAPD wasn't so crooked could they have convicted Mr. "If I Did it"?

40 Give an ewok a thesaurus and you get trouble every time. Next it'll be vapors and mint juleps.

41 Oh, no! My glasses! I've broken my glasses so I can't read any FOI requests!

It's not fair ... there was time now ... all the time in the world ...

42 What is annoying is that on THIS issue, surely I am regarded as Simon Pure. And yet... Apparently I have to write even on this subject in a defensive nature to reassure those with the least reading comprehension abilities that I am reliably on the team. What it seems like is people are just scanning quickly and without really reading for Forbidden Thoughts and pouncing, letting me know that according to their half-assed gleaning, they think that maybe I wasn't strident and forceful enough. I'm tired of it. Give it a rest. I don't come to where yinzer works and slap the cock out of his mouth.

43 >>> I wonder if the LAPD wasn't so crooked could they have convicted Mr. "If I Did it"? No. Unnecessary. OJ left behind, ahem, a riot of evidence. Well, the one case where the case was "sweetened" is that Furman refused to admit he'd ever said the n-word. That is a very minor sort of sweetening, of course.

44 Also, your analogy implies that man-made climate change is real, but the fraud and deception was done only to make the process of convincing the public more efficient.  I'm sorry, but your cop analogy blows.

For once, it works well, if you look at it from a envriowacko's view point:

Big Bad Carbon, he's been pollutin' the environment, and he's been caught and cleaned up a couple of time. Gotta rap sheet.

But now we've got this artificial climate change, and we know KNOW! he's the one. But we can't prove it. But he's guilty. Gotta get him.

So? frame his ass. No one will believe him, not with those priors.

It only requires a belief in AGW being real on the parts of the cops in question. In this case, the likes of Jones, Mann, Trenberth and the rest.

And yeah, I'm looking squarely at you, Heidi Cullen. You're as guilty as the rest. A pity you won't get your just deserts any time soon.

45 Words matter Ace.  Some of these retards can't read what's actually written, they read what they fantasize was written.  That's the problem.

46 Our prayers are with Mr. Jones.

47 No. Unnecessary. OJ left behind, ahem, a riot of evidence.

Ah, yes. But the jury didn't feel any particular confidence in the skills of the Cororner's office or the LAPD to handle that evidence with proper care.

Sort of like this case. Except they threw away the original data after they'd, ummm, processed it.

48 Of course it works. I can't avoid decent analogies just because someone who isn't reading carefully or who doesn't know my opinion MIGHT, MAYBE, if he doesn't pick up on obvious context clues, POSSIBLY think I am implying that AGW is real and catastrophic. I don't know if Yinzer is a dummy or is afraid I am pitching my writing at too high a level and thus misleading other dummies. Either way, I am not writing for fuckign dummies. Writing for dummies is, yes, wearying. I am writing for an above-average-to-high-IQ audience and if someone can't follow, well, it happens. I'm not pitching everything low and slow so that every dummy can follow every nuance.

49 > It's really wearying to have you Thought Police following us around everywhere. You there! 6079 Spades A! Let's put some hustle into that Electric Slide if you want your weekly ration of Valu-Rite Victory Gin. By the way, something fun to Google: site:democraticunderground.com climate change data dumped Precis: Democrat tells comrades that scientists should adhere to standards of scientific practice; depressing spectacle ensues.

50 Poking holes in an analogy is just a guy thing.  Like telling you what I'd do when you tell me your problems.

I don't think anybody means anything by it really.

51 NONTROVERSY!!!

Please buy the calendars, please don't let me suffer my abuse in vain!

52 "As director of the University of East Anglia's prestigious Climatic Research Unit..."

Bzzt. Do not pass go. Do not collect $100.00 or a bajillion kroner. That word "prestigious?" I do not think it means what you think it means.

University of East Anglia CRU == Mud

53 toby, it was a combination of kneejerk screeching DON'T SAY THAT ABOUT COPS! followed up with kneejerk YOU'RE NOT MAKING IT PLAIN ENOUGH FOR RETARDED READERS THAT YOU DON'T REALLY THINK CARBON IS A VILLAIN!!! The fuck man?

54 I deal with criticism pretty well. Serious criticism, I mean. On the other hand, there's just heckling, and you know what? I'm as done with cheap-seats heckling as any comic who's been on the road for six years. I don't need the likes of Yinzer screeching every three seconds that they didn't get the last joke and probably wouldn't have found it funny if they had.

55 The fuck man?

Heh.  I like that you've had your righteous rage on.  You and the cob-loggers have been on fire the last couple of days.

My employer has been cheated this whole week.

56 I'm sorry-- Have my beliefs about AGW been too opaque? Too nuanced? Am I insufficiently angry and passionate about this story? What? What? What can I possibly do to appease the Thought Police?

57 I am writing for an above-average-to-high-IQ audience and if someone can't follow, well, it happens.

Three years ago, UCLA researchers got a grant to study and forensically profile the intelligence of blog trolls and estimated their IQ's. Most were in the 70's range.(*)









(*)I totally made this shit up, but I'll claim its fake but accurate

58 We are looking at "science" conducted with less rigor and skepticism than we see in the station houses of a dirtier parish of New Orleans.

A dirty parish of New Orleans? Dumbass.

59 Great deals at Amazon! Please help my new best friend out!

Large Red Boy from Doc Johnson

60

Yinzer Screeching would be a good name for a rock band.

If there were still rock bands.

61 Death threats to Phil?  Probably his co-conspirators emailing thru cut outs to "hide the (real) crime".  Maybe Phil could hide out with Polanski.  Drug 'em, put a blonde wig on 'em, teenie clothes, a whiff of helium, and let (Polanski's) nature take it's course.

62

And sometimes, despite all that, a cop will still resort to planting evidence to frame a guilty man.

In this case, we have 1, a large number of liked-minded zealots all convinced beyond convincing that their is a villain afoot, 2, a lack of really strong direct evidence to convict this horrible scoundrel, and, crucially, 3, no adversarial process at all, no examination by the "defense attorneys," if you will, and so therefore no check on the impulse to frame the guilty.

Maybe right, except for the "nature trick to HIDE THE DECLINE" which is like a cop coming across exculpatory evidence that the guy he is trying to frame is unquestionably innocent and hiding that evidence and framing the guy anyway.

Oh, and the guilty man here is all of humanity and there was never any crime committed except for the frame itself and the money it cost to construct the frame and the cost  of the cage in which all of humanity is to be interred.

63 I wonder why this news story uses a picture of him from at least 20 years ago. Here's a more recent one from the UEA website.

64 what's great about this, besides cratering the climate change fraud, is that a whole new generation of youths get a first hand lesson in what lying shits leftists are.

65

Can we get a shout out for Dr. Dorito, or whatever, for having some balls?

Way to go, Doc.

66 It wasn't <i>data rape</i> date rape.

67 I'd like a study of how much the existence of this blog hurts the productivity of our nation's IT nerds but we need proper proxy measurements.  Perhaps we could graph the accessing of internet pron to new post times and look for the decline.

68 Speller, What seems to be the growing consensus is that these guy were/are completely out of their depths and simply do no understand statistics or regressions and all the rest of it. So they don't even know WHY there are certain pesky rules that restrain them from just fudging to get the right numbers. They dont know, as they say, what they don't know. So it may not be correct that they see "exculpatory evidence," because they haven't the expertise to recognize it as such. They just see it as inconvenient, and then just make a few more tweaks they don't understand.

69 I think these were the same coders who write eBay's stuff...which is notoriously buggy and in a constant state of flux

70 I think that every Leftard should be asked if they believe the CRU hacker / whistleblower should be prosecuted. When they answer yes, ask them why the leaker of the classified intelligence to the NYT shouldn't be prosecuted under the same logic. Make sure you're outside the blast radius of the exploding head.

71 You only need one rule: "if the data don't fit, adjust it a bit."

72 I think these were the same coders who write eBay's AoSHQ's stuff...which is notoriously buggy and in a constant state of flux

FIFY.

73 Make sure you're outside the blast radius of the exploding head.

Posted by: SDN at December 02, 2009 05:41 PM (9aZtz)

That's a nice thought, but cognitive dissonance is where the left lives. There won't be any lefty heads exploding over something as inconsequential to them as simultaneous, inconsistent positions. It's really all about the empathy, you see ...

74 I wonder what will happen to the UEA's carbon MBA program as a result of all this.  http://tiny.cc/riPUc

75
I think these were the same coders who write eBay's AoSHQ's stuff...which is notoriously buggy and in a constant state of flux

Heh.  Nice.

76 We are looking at "science" conducted with less rigor and skepticism than we see in the station houses of a dirtier parish of New Orleans.

New Orleans is in Orleans Parish.  While they're co-extensive, unless you're talking about station houses of dirty Catholic churches in New Orleans, I think you meant "station houses of a dirty parish in Louisiana."

77

What seems to be the growing consensus is that these guy were/are completely out of their depths and simply do no understand statistics or regressions and all the rest of it.

Bingo!  Someone give the Ewok a cookie.  Or whatever demented thing that serves as his motivator.

Look at it this way, even if Mann, Jones and the whole Hee Haw gang could have captured say, 98% of the variance in the earth's temperature, then they have 2% unaccounted for and are arguing that half a degree of change in the temps IS captured by their models.

Anyone see the problem there?  Let's say the average global temp is 25 degrees.  ALL THE VARIANCE COULD LAY COMPLETELY OUTSIDE THE MODEL EVEN AT A 98% CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

That we are even considering any of these "findings" to be significant owes to one thing--Michael Crichton said it best:  "That's not science, it's a marketing plan."

P.S.:  I even lay aside the whole proxy data usage.  This entire thing is the greatest con job in history.  IN HISTORY. 

78 Or maybe not - I actually have no idea of what you meant.  Sorry - didn't mean to overstep my bounds.

79 People in these situations always start getting death threats in a timely manner.  Which is a thing that they find helpful for their cause.

80

People in these situations always start getting death threats in a timely manner.

The death threats are probably coming from Al Gore's accountant.

81

I am writing for an above-average-to-high-IQ audience and if someone can't follow, well, it happens. I'm not pitching everything low and slow so that every dummy can follow every nuance.

 

 

Huh?

82 Ace - your 'cops in the mood to frame' analogy is quite good.  I'm gonna pass it on.  I've been following this blog for a while, merely lurking.  Gotta say: for a moron you write some pretty insightful stuff.

83 ahhhhh... okay. I got confused. I know in London parishes are pretty small; London has (had?) dozens of them.

84 @78 progressoverpeace

That's a nice thought, but cognitive dissonance is where the left lives. There won't be any lefty heads exploding over something as inconsequential to them as simultaneous, inconsistent positions.

Dead on!  The best way to get a lefty's head to explode is what I call cognitive resonance.  Let him tell you what he fears most, and then pile-on. 

Example:  Here in Virginia, I love telling lefties that Bob McDonnell won the election for governor on the strength of his thesis since this country is never more than a half-step away from becoming a theocracy.

85 I didn't understand Brian's post calling me a dumbass... thanks, now I get it. Okay, how does New Orleans break down as far as admnistrative districts? Wards? Precincts? What?

86

"What seems to be the growing consensus is that these guy were/are completely out of their depths and simply do no understand statistics ..."

I'll raise the ante.  I hypothesize that this cabal, as a whole, has less training in the basics (chemistry, physics, mathematics, statistics, thermodynamics, and conducting controlled experimentation) than a BS in Engineering.

No offense intended, but their "science", seems as grounded as psychology.

87

Well, ace, that doesn't seem to explain why they are hiding the decline or why they were sophisticated enough to design complex computer simulations that would generate a hockey stick shaped graph even if they put white noise in it.

I won't even mention the efforts to block the peer review or publishing of contrarian scientific views.(exculpatory evidence)

-oh, I just did-  8^D

88

The poor boy's been getting death threats?  How ironic, considering the millions of death threats he's made over the years, ain't it?

89 >>>why they were sophisticated enough to design complex computer simulations that would generate a hockey stick shaped graph even if they put white noise in it. They're not that sophisticated. I believe because they have no idea what the fuck they're doing they didn't KNOW their simulation would produce the hockey stick with red noise. I think they are that out of their depth. So they don't get why they just can't add raw numbers into a series of proxy numbers. All they know is they use the "trick" and the numbers come out the way they want, and they know they're right in the first place, who can blame them for cutting a corner here or there?

90 >>>I hypothesize that this cabal, as a whole, has less training in the basics (chemistry, physics, mathematics, statistics, thermodynamics, and conducting controlled experimentation) than a BS in Engineering. No doubt. Their 'interdisciplinary" discipline also trains them with just barely enough statistics and programming *to get them into trouble.*

91

Well, ace, that doesn't seem to explain why they are hiding the decline or why they were sophisticated enough to design complex computer simulations that would generate a hockey stick shaped graph even if they put white noise in it.

Actually, it does.  They wanted a marketing tool--not a scientific result.  Screw around with the thing until you get a pretty picture.  The hockey stick came from ten tree ring samples--not a hundred.  (Not even the more statistically acceptable 30).  That they do not comprehend the implications of said screwiness for the entire exercise (which is supposed to be replicable, by the way) speaks volumes about their expertise. 

92 Curses! FOIAled again!

93 the 1st character is often missing from your block quotes.

94 I always enjoy the whiners who say "The critics are just experts at the statistical modeling these guys are using to forecast the end of the world!!" Oh, is that all they are? Experts merely on the key tool that "proves" AGW? Experts, which they themselves are inexpert, at knowing the limitations and rules of statistical analysis? Is that ALL they are? Really? They're just the guys who actually understand the statistics these guys plainly do not? Oh, okay. I didn't know that's ALL they were.

95
Meredith Baxter is a lesbian???

96 That wasn't clear. I meant it's a frequent whine that critics like Mac and Mac are "merely" experts at math and statistics. They'e "only" experts at the too these guys say prove the theory. As if that is some small thing. You know what? Maybe before we spend $100 trillion on this we should have some fucking experts examine if they got the coding right, eh?

97

Top Men.

 

98

"why they were sophisticated enough to design complex computer simulations that would generate a hockey stick shaped graph"

Maybe I misunderstand the computer code, but it was not sophisticated.  The temp "adjustments" were hard coded.

99 68  I wonder why this news story uses a picture of him from at least 20 years ago. Here's a more recent one from the UEA website.

Posted by: Bilby at December 02, 2009 05:36 PM (wJMxW)

The better-looking picture is actually from a month ago. Stress, don't you know.

100

I'm highly offended at ace's implication that all cops in New Orleans are a part of the conspiracy to advance the AGW scam.

I'm pretty sure that's what he meant.  He might've meant all cops everywhere moonlighted as corrupt climate scientists, but I'm not sure.

_{/obligatory sarcasm tag for the resident mouthbreathers.}

101

You know what? Maybe before we spend $100 trillion on this we should have some fucking experts examine if they got the coding right, eh?

Nah.  Let's go for it.

By the way, I'm watching "Titanic" and "Apollo 13" tonight.

102 Could this be a "trick" by the cops to get him to talk?

103 And I'll say this again and again.  The whole AGW hoax has never been about science.  It was all about filtching our wallets and taking away our liberty so they can get even more money from us.  It's as simple as that.  And Al Gore sucks cocks.

104 Isn't the claim that the average world-wide temperature has increased by .6C over the last 100 years?  Summer, winter, day and night, Manhattan to darkest Africa, averaged together.  Just think about that a bit, ponder the alleged precision inherent in making such a claim, and one wonders how this ever got any traction at all.

.6C

105 You know what? Maybe before we spend $100 trillion on this we should have some fucking experts examine if they got the coding right, eh?

I'll go one further, and say what we should require are the mathematical proofs of correctness for this code before betting the world on it.  

If code is correct in all aspects, it IS mathematically possible to prove it so.  The techniques are well established for doing this, although it doesn't happen often due to the tedious nature and cost of doing so. 

106 Of course, if the code is NOT correct, no amount of mathematical handwaving can prove it so ;->

107

Even without the e-mails, the admission that they "accidentally" threw out the raw data, if true, should immediately render all studies based on that data as invalid.

True peer review can't take place if we're to just assume that their "corrections" were correct.

That we have e-mails confirming the suspicions of the skeptics- that they were highly vested in advancing a point of view to the point of obstructionism- it's more true now.  They clearly wanted a particular result- why would anyone trust them or their non-confirmable results?

The Nobel committee should pull Al Gore's prize and award it to the alledged hacker.

108

If code is correct in all aspects, it IS mathematically possible to prove it so.  The techniques are well established for doing this, although it doesn't happen often due to the tedious nature and cost of doing so. 

 

Would a few trillion dollars cover it?  I'll go tell congress.

109

Isn't the claim that the average world-wide temperature has increased by .6C over the last 100 years?  Summer, winter, day and night, Manhattan to darkest Africa, averaged together.  Just think about that a bit, ponder the alleged precision inherent in making such a claim, and one wonders how this ever got any traction at all.

.6C

Read something today (don't remember where) that suggested that most of the average increase was due to higher low temperatures as opposed to higher high temperatures.

In other words, it's not gotten much hotter (and 1F isn't squat), but just not quite as cold.

Then again, we don't really know exactly what temperature changes have occurred without the raw data.

110

Here's a brief summary of the Mann fraud and the Yamal tree ring fraud etc. from Steve McIntyre's partner, Ross McKitrick. [h/t SDA]

I have been probing the arguments for global warming for well over a decade. In collaboration with a lot of excellent coauthors I have consistently found that when the layers get peeled back, what lies at the core is either flawed, misleading or simply non-existent. The surface temperature data is a contaminated mess with a significant warm bias, and as I have detailed elsewhere the IPCC fabricated evidence in its 2007 report to cover up the problem. Climate models are in gross disagreement with observations, and the discrepancy is growing with each passing year. The often-hyped claim that the modern climate has departed from natural variability depended on flawed statistical methods and low-quality data. The IPCC review process, of which I was a member last time, is nothing at all like what the public has been told: Conflicts of interest are endemic, critical evidence is systematically ignored and there are no effective checks and balances against bias or distortion.

111 Doh! Sock off #116

112 Dead on! The best way to get a lefty's head to explode is what I call cognitive resonance. Let him tell you what he fears most, and then pile-on.

Posted by: MikeO at December 02, 2009 05:54 PM (Ce+tv)

"Cognitive Resonance". I like it.

113 There's a new nit I saw somewhere. I forget where I read it -- maybe Linzen in the WSJ -- but the correct thing to track is the maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Instead, these jesters look at the mean, the average. This is a problem because max temp is not rising at all. Min temp is. And min temp (this is my guess) is easily, easily changed by heat island effects -- all that tar and asphalt absorbing heat all day, and then radiating it back out at night, raising the minimum temperature. And anyway that's what they should be using, max and min temp, but instead, they go for mean temp.

114 When I say that's my guess, Lindzen (I think) said that number is easily changed; I am guessing as to the why.

115

If this issue does not catch fire with the masses, we are doomed.

Who learns what lesson from all this is still up in the air.

116 If code is correct in all aspects, it IS mathematically possible to prove it so. The techniques are well established for doing this, although it doesn't happen often due to the tedious nature and cost of doing so.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at December 02, 2009 06:12 PM (LbFeN)

I'm not sure what you mean by proving it correct. As far as I'm aware, the general correctness problem is still a very open question.

I am still trying to come to grips with people accepting the validity of computer models of complex, dynamical systems for long-term forecasts - even if the data were perfect. Didn't the poor, short-term predictive records of econometric models (which had better brains, more money, and a longer history) put a nail in this coffin?

117 I'd like to report the theft of my credibility and the disappeaeraence of billions of dollars in sweet sweet grant money.

118 What I had seen at one of the sites that had studied the data was that .6°C number was for North America for the last 100 years (maybe 150y).

They also said that out of the .6° increase .5 of the increase was from their "adjustment of the data".  In other words, there was only a .1°C increase in actual measured temperature and that was WITH urban areas encroaching on the measurement spots.

(you woild also think that their adjustment for that encroachment would have called for the temperatures to be lowered instead of raised)

119 I'd like to report the murder of all my dreams of wealth confiscation, and my humiliation at the hands of right-wingerth on the Internet..

120 BTW, last year I did a check on our change in mean temperature from 1998 to 2008 for the months of Oct and Nov using the historical data from the local weather. It went down by about 2°F here in the SE.

Morons from other parts of the country took note of that and did itr for their areas as well. This was real world raw data and in EVERY case actual temperatures declined by a significant amount.

121 So, let me see if I have this perfectly clear.  There are people who believe that global warming is true but are confused by the non-existant raw data and people who think that all the confused people, er, I mean all the people who don't believe in hope and change want another beer summit?  I don't get it.  Where's Nancy.  I want to talk to Nancy.

122

Phil Jones?

Wasn't that f ker in a band or something I never heard of?

123

Ace,

LA runs under Napoleonic code.  Parishes are basically the same as counties under English Common Law.

124

It IS generally agreed that methane is a stronger radiant absorbing/warming agent than CO2.

It IS generally agreed that water vapor is a stronger radiant absorbing/warming agent than CO2.

Solar activity seems to be at least a good an indicator for warming as CO2.

It IS generally agreed that sulphur (SO2, suphates, etc) forms with water vapor in the atmosphere to create compounds that are stronger coolants than CO2 is a warmer.

The AGW priests and their followers MUST ignore the first three above - no money in it.

The fourth item above is the tough nut.  If the alarmists accept "sulphur" as an explanation for the current decadal cooling, their rush to carbon taxation & swaps falls apart.  We could take time to re-evaluate the "science", while letting the Chinese & Indians keep burning their high sulphur content coal, to keep us cool, in the interim.

125 Circa (Insert Year Here): "...The hockey stick came from ten tree ring samples--not a hundred..."

Yeah, I'd love to see the semi-quantitative analysis they used for those measurements too. How "representative" were the specimens? What was the height above ground of the trunk cross-section and was it uniform throughout the selected cuttings? How many measurements were made to determine "average" ring width and were the measurement spacings uniform? And, ultimately, so what? You're going to tell the world that temperature can be determined from tree rings... to within a few degrees or partial degrees?

Garbage In Garbage Out.

126   20 I swear to God some of you just like sitting there lying in wait for any thoughtcrimes.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 05:02 PM (jlvw3)

It's funny cause it's true.

127

Briffa's 10/12 tree ring data was completely opposed to what the Finn's had found.  Not to mention an affront on the established 50 tree ring minimum.  The Finn's are the experts afterall.

The Finn's then took samples in their backyard, at the same latitude as Briffa's.  Lo and behold, same results as they got before, completely contradicting Briffa's.

128 According to the little green turd, we're all headed for the slammer: ".... the CRU theft was a criminal attempt to sabotage the Copenhagen climate summit, and the entire right wing blogosphere is complicit in the crime."

129 the CRU theft was a criminal attempt to sabotage the Copenhagen climate summit, and the entire right wing blogosphere is complicit in the crime.

I threw a copy up to bittorrent.  You'll never take me alive, coppers!

130 He got death threats? Are those of the "If you don't stop "X", you're gonna die a horrific death sometime in the future" variety? just saying...

131

135 According to the little green turd, we're all headed for the slammer:

".... the CRU theft was a criminal attempt to sabotage the Copenhagen climate summit, and the entire right wing blogosphere is complicit in the crime."

Charles Johnson, Climate Detective!

(and Race Detective)

132 Is Ace implying Lesbians are getting hotter in New Orleans and playing Hockey to tempt Cops?

133 I'm not sure what you mean by proving it correct.

I mean proving it correct in that the code meets design criteria, specifications and gives "correct" results in all cases based on those criteria.  Correctness proof construction has been well known, although infrequently implemented, since the 1980's.

Of course if design criteria and specs are based on false assumptions, then a program can give results that are manifestly "wrong", but were "correct" within the flawed assumptions and constraints it was written around.

Even if we take the chalkboard "models" and their plethora of "adjustments" at face value and trust them to be valid, I'd still like to see a correctness proof for the code that implements those models.  Its very easy to be correct on a chalkboard and have a buggy mess after code is written to implement that correct theory.

At a very minimum, I'd like to see that code liberally sprinkled with thousands of tests of invariant conditions.

134 test

135 Is James Hansen the leaker of the emails.

136 See EU Referendum for more.

137 My classmate at college used to say, "You tell me the conclusions you want and I will get you the data."    He went to medical school and may be treating you right now.