Ace of Spades HQ

November 24, 2009

Revision....Economy Grew at 2.8% In 3rd Quarter
— DrewM

Not the 3.5% as originally thought.

As per the norm when a Democrat is in charge, there's plenty of Hope in this Change!

The revised data are still consistent with the widespread view among economists that the recession ended over the summer, as the nation began producing more goods and services. But it also indicates that the burst of activity wasn't as great as first thought, which helps explain why the job market has been so painfully slow to turn around.
Economists believe the economy has continued growing in the fourth quarter, though still at a measured pace -- an annual rate in the 3 percent range. However, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in October and is widely forecast to continue rising. Employment frequently lags behind overall output at the end of a recession, as skittish employers ramp up production using existing workers rather than hiring new ones, unsure whether rising demand will last.

Keep in mind, according to the administration the stimulus effect is done. To celebrate, the guys get shirts! "I Spent Nearly A Trillion Dollars And All I Got Was 2.8% Growth!"

Sadly, that's a downright bargain compared to the ROI we got from the 3 BILLION dollar cash for clunkers program. Originally the administration claimed the program accounted for 1.7% of the growth, turns out it was a more, er, modest .81%.

These Democrats are some scary smart people. And by "scary smart", I mean idiots.

Posted by: DrewM at 10:11 AM | Comments (56)
Post contains 256 words, total size 2 kb.

1 It was 3.5%! Well, okay, it was more like 2.8%. But we meant well! And now, let's turn our attention to health care.

Posted by: joncelli at November 24, 2009 10:14 AM (RD7QR)

2 Hope!

Change!

Posted by: HeatherRadish at November 24, 2009 10:14 AM (NtiET)

3 Now is a great time to buy! Invest for the long term!!

Posted by: Jim Cramer at November 24, 2009 10:15 AM (5aa4z)

4 Democrats are all about getting credit for intentions, never results.

Posted by: EC at November 24, 2009 10:15 AM (mAhn3)

5

I'll wait for Ace to post about this before I waste a comment.

Posted by: a.k.a. at November 24, 2009 10:16 AM (PXD0J)

6 Economists believe

Economists? Weren't economists the ones who drew the blue lines on Geoff's chart? They of the fantastic record of prediction? Those economists? Fantastic.

the economy has continued growing in the fourth quarter, though still at a measured pace -- an annual rate in the 3 percent range.

I'm guessing this forecast of 3 will end up being reported as 1 and revised downward to -1.

However, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in October and is widely forecast to continue rising.

Exsqueeze me? Widely forecast to continue rising? Where was this reported? Maybe the NYT spiked it because these forecasts were not meant for the general public.

Employment frequently lags behind overall output at the end of a recession, as skittish employers ramp up production using existing workers rather than hiring new ones, unsure whether rising demand will last.

Or maybe they're skittish over the health care debacle guaranteed to wreck 1/6th of the economy or the cap and trade nonsense which will wreck the other 5/6ths.

You're right, Drew. They are stupid with at least four o's.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 24, 2009 10:17 AM (ItSLQ)

7 It be worse for the economy if the clunkers program resulted in 1.7% growth, rather than .81% growth. Assuming we hold the 2.8% Q3 GDP growth as the constant, and assume no other government programs caused an GDP increase (we know this isn't the case, but bear with me), you're looking at a the private sector causing a 1.1% growth vs. a 2% growth.

That the clunker growth was revised down is a good thing.

Posted by: taylork at November 24, 2009 10:17 AM (4jZ56)

8 Oh, and what was the private sector growth? As I understand, private sector growth actually went down over the last quarter, when it was first reported. I'm guessing that was revised way downward.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 24, 2009 10:18 AM (ItSLQ)

9
btw, Rush is all fired up today on the Global Warming hoax.

And I'm pretty sure he reads this blog, my comments in particular. Probably not yours.

Posted by: a.k.a. at November 24, 2009 10:19 AM (PXD0J)

10 And by "scary smart", I mean idiots.

Heh. I remember when people called teh Won scary smart during the election. Shoulda known they meant he was a giant idiot.

Posted by: wherestherum at November 24, 2009 10:20 AM (gofDd)

11 Oh, Ras is showing
45% approve/54% disapprove
27% strong approve/42% strong disapprove for a -15% index.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 24, 2009 10:20 AM (ItSLQ)

12 This isn't the last "revision" for this shit.

Also, look at Drudge for the headline about shovel ready jobs in NYC. Yes, stimulus construction jobs going to Chinese construction company.

Another massive fail for Obamanomics.

Posted by: Vic at November 24, 2009 10:21 AM (CDUiN)

13 It's a jobless and growthless recovery.

Posted by: Joe Biden at November 24, 2009 10:22 AM (VKn7o)

14 This would be good news if the value of the dollar only declined by 2.8% last quarter.

Posted by: t-bird at November 24, 2009 10:22 AM (FcR7P)

15 These idiot economists continue to view the data through the template of post war recessions to reach their conclusions. They are wrong. This is not an inventory or manufacturing recession, it is a balance sheet recession i.e. people are broke. Banks and insurance companies are broke. All these ridiculous mortgages, auto loans, home equity crap has just been moved to the Fed's balance sheet. It still exists and won't be paid. If you were a responsible person who worked hard, made sound financial decisions and saved your money then guess what?, you are a sucker as you are going to have to pay for this mess. Buy guns, gold, powdered milk and ammunition.

Posted by: dan in michigan at November 24, 2009 10:23 AM (88w67)

16 The Oconomy is taking the off-ramp.

Posted by: t-bird at November 24, 2009 10:24 AM (FcR7P)

17
You morons think Obama is lying when he says we're in recovery?

He isn't.

Posted by: a.k.a. at November 24, 2009 10:25 AM (PXD0J)

18 Wait until further revision.

And does anyone foresee an even only moderately bad retail season this Christmas? I'm betting a disaster, with failures and fallout, plus further unemployment to follow. Next year looks grim as far as I can see.

Posted by: nickless at November 24, 2009 10:26 AM (MMC8r)

19 This would be good news if the value of the dollar only declined by 2.8% last quarter.

Posted by: t-bird at November 24, 2009 02:22 PM (FcR7P)

No shit. Anybody else noticing the paycheck getting squeezed by inflation like I do?

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at November 24, 2009 10:27 AM (5aa4z)

20
In Obama's view we are recovering...

from capitalism...from White imperialism...and from the evils of western tradition and economics.

Obama is healing America. We are in recovery.

Posted by: a.k.a. at November 24, 2009 10:27 AM (PXD0J)

21 I'm noticing a very modest uptick in commercial construction here in south FL in Palm Beach county.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 24, 2009 10:28 AM (SnE5o)

All I want for Christmas

Is a mo-ron-ette

A mo-ron-ette

All i want for Christmas is, whah? huh? Wrong thread? sorry

Posted by: teej at November 24, 2009 10:28 AM (QdUKm)

23 I'll put money on the Mainstream Media hyping what they consider "record spending" despite the actual numbers showing lower sales, right through the January Return Season......they'll rationalize that "it's GOOD for the economy to error on the side of being positive to help get this recession over soon" as they slant their spin in what they consider favor to Obama.

Posted by: Just a cynic.... at November 24, 2009 10:32 AM (v4UYp)

24 Why no cowbell for a new high in disapproval as seen by Ras? I like me some cowbell.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 24, 2009 10:33 AM (DIYmd)

25 I'll put money on the Mainstream Media hyping what they consider "record spending" despite the actual numbers showing lower sales, right through the January Return Season......they'll rationalize that "it's GOOD for the economy to error on the side of being positive to help get this recession over soon" as they slant their spin in what they consider favor to Obama.

"Pick up that turd by the clean end, boy."

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at November 24, 2009 10:34 AM (5aa4z)

26 Don't forget that the GDP is revised 3 times in each quarter, so there is still one more revision to make before we will really know how much GDP grew in Q3. So the SRM is going to have to really get the spin machine going when the final reading comes out.

Posted by: Opus at November 24, 2009 10:38 AM (IebeI)

27 Aw come on it's only a revision of 0.7 ... oh wait (3.5-2.

/ 3.5 = 0.2 = 20%. That's a real haircut.

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 24, 2009 10:40 AM (F71c5)

28 13 It's a jobless and growthless recovery.

Posted by: Joe Biden at November 24, 2009 02:22 PM (VKn7o)

And the stimulus succeeded beyond our wildest imaginations!

Posted by: Bungle Boy Biden at November 24, 2009 10:44 AM (xxgag)

29 The dollar keeps shrinking everyday. I guess 2.8 % is supposed to make me feel good? Jimmy Carter is looking better everyday.....

Posted by: Todd at November 24, 2009 10:45 AM (LLOGQ)

Wait.

$3 billion in Cash for Clunkers generated 0.81 percentage points of growth, but $787 billion in Porkulus money generated only 1.99 percentage points?

Posted by: stuiec at November 24, 2009 10:45 AM (7AOgy)

Depends on how good the Black Friday deals are. Some of the stores are extending those deals for days to weeks after 11/26.

Posted by: Opus at November 24, 2009 10:45 AM (IebeI)

32 You lie!

Posted by: Santnick at November 24, 2009 10:45 AM (gj4TN)

33 Revised GDP numbers are racist.

Posted by: TheQuietman at November 24, 2009 10:52 AM (1Jaio)

34 Pick up that turd by the clean end, boy.

OK, I didn't even have to imagine it this time. Racist!

Posted by: Maureen Dowd at November 24, 2009 10:57 AM (GEBXA)

35 @7 taylork

That the clunker growth was revised down is a good thing.

@32 stuiec

$3 billion in Cash for Clunkers generated 0.81 percentage points of growth, but $787 billion in Porkulus money generated only 1.99 percentage points?

More lies. I'll bet they're shifting the revision amount on cash-for-clunkers into Q4 so they can count it twice on pre-revised numbers.

Posted by: MikeO at November 24, 2009 11:02 AM (dYNrR)

This GDP numbers reveal the real danger facing the country:

An unemployed Alaska woman's treatment of fans at book signings.

Priorities, people...priorities.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 24, 2009 11:06 AM (B+qrE)

37 These. Dammit.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 24, 2009 11:07 AM (B+qrE)

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at November 24, 2009 03:06 PM (B+qrE) -

Nobody but racists go to those book signings anyway. <sarc>

And that's too bad. It's a fine book and should be required reading for all high school and college students. Also for those who think CBS and the NYT are the most balanced sources of news there is. And trust me, I know people like that.

Posted by: teej at November 24, 2009 11:11 AM (QdUKm)

39 29 Aw come on it's only a revision of 0.7 ... oh wait (3.5-2. / 3.5 = 0.2 = 20%. That's a real haircut.

actually, the correct basis is the real lower figure, and like with porkulus sham and unemployement, both this GDP figure and predicted unemployment are off by 25% or more!

Posted by: ParisParamus at November 24, 2009 11:12 AM (NPtVh)

"These Democrats are some scary smart people. And by "scary smart", I mean idiots."

How about scary idiots ? The country put the Dems in power at exactly the wrong time.

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 24, 2009 11:14 AM (F71c5)

24: Just keep singing, teej. All Christmas wishes come true eventually! *dimple* *sparkle* *takes a shot*

Posted by: Joanna at November 24, 2009 11:14 AM (gJQTg)

42 "Why no cowbell for a new high in disapproval as seen by Ras? I like me some cowbell."

The cowbell is out on loan trying to wake ace up.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 24, 2009 11:16 AM (HAdov)

43 You know, Barack Obama told me his true profession is golf. Politics is just to pay the green fees.

Posted by: Bob Hope and Change at November 24, 2009 11:23 AM (GwPRU)

44 OT: The waves keep radiating outward from the climate change email dump; starting to read juicy stuff in the European press...

Posted by: ParisParamus at November 24, 2009 11:24 AM (NPtVh)

45 The waves keep radiating outward from the climate change email dump; starting to read juicy stuff in the European press...

Still reading crickets here.

Posted by: Vic at November 24, 2009 11:36 AM (CDUiN)

People who use "are" when referring to an "it" settle into the same category of people who pronounce schedule as "shed-yule" and Genghis Kahn as "Jenn-jiss": Elitist buttwipes.

Now the elitist buttwipes will flood the comments section damning the above as an example of why only elitist buttwipes should be a ruling class over the dunces in flyover country.

Go eat with your fork upside down. Or I shall taunt you a second time.

Posted by: Todd Palin's Alter Ego at November 24, 2009 11:38 AM (yQtk0)

47 I'm sure all of my unemployed friends are just enthralled with this news! /sarc

Posted by: MCPO Airdale at November 24, 2009 11:40 AM (UGAk/)

20% revision, what a bunch of losers!

Posted by: KLL at November 24, 2009 11:52 AM (/5Axw)

49 This wasn't a mistake. It was a deliberate massaging of data ala President Clinton in 1999-2000. Still, 2.8 is better than the contraction in the previous quarter (and, I fear in the 4th).

Posted by: Christopher taylor at November 24, 2009 12:00 PM (PQY7w)

#15 Bingo! Balance Sheet Recession exactly. And the Fed is at it's root.

Now, somebody with some balls, send the paragraph describing the difference between a post-war manufacturing economy and recession, and the current I'll-wash-your-laundry-and-you-wash-mine economy to that preening prick in the White House.

Or will I have to do it my own damn self?

Posted by: Dan Patterson at November 24, 2009 12:05 PM (yQtk0)

51 Don't worry fellas. Next quarter the growth will be better than ever... maybe around 0.5% See? Fiscal responsibility. With the lower growth that means we spend less, right?

Posted by: Earflaps McBaritone, POTUS and Supergenius at November 24, 2009 12:08 PM (AZGON)

You want to kill the job growth engine? Look at where my family's money goes (in order of biggest shakedown to smallest):

1) Mortgage (bank/credit union)

2) Fed Gov't (fed taxes, social security, medicare)

3) State Gov't (state income tax, state sales tax)

4) Local Gov't (property tax, local sales tax)

5) Food and stuff for the family (if you can't find it in the dollar store do you really need it?)

I predict The One will be slightly under 40% approval after the holidays (Rasmussen, even CBS will have him mid-40s). Hope and change will be on the table in many households - tea partiers will be pitching beyond the immediate family, in great part due to O's mocking treatment - and the pitch will resonate given O's failure to gain any results of signifigance. More bleeding for The One.

Posted by: EBJ at November 24, 2009 12:35 PM (ocHBO)

53 OK... Who here predicted that the 3.5% growth would be revised down just as the Bush GDP numbers during 2003-2005 had to be revised upward????

.... raises hand....

Come on, I know most the morons here thought that this would happen. Now raise those hands... Come on. You won't be shot... yet...

Posted by: phreshone at November 24, 2009 01:09 PM (wQx2m)

America's first heartless recovery.

Posted by: Warden at November 24, 2009 01:45 PM (zAKwR)

55 burberry scarf | CD Keys

Posted by: jason at November 24, 2009 04:57 PM (x70Q/)

56 http://www.oilpaintingandframe.com

Posted by: susan at February 28, 2011 06:12 PM (PuAWE)

Hide Comments | Add Comment | Refresh | Top

Comments are disabled. Post is locked.

93kb generated in CPU 0.025, elapsed 0.2574 seconds.
64 queries taking 0.2387 seconds, 184 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.