1 Obama is the best thing to happen to the GOP since Reagan.

2 In other news, the United States is becoming increasingly racist, with levels of racism predicted to peak on Election Day 2010.

3 Hope & Change!

4 The question is, do we want the House and Senate back?

Wouldn't it be better to miss the majority by one or two seats and have the Dems own the whole mess?

The GOP could still cause havoc with a near majority, then campaign for a clean sweep in 2012.

Like Steyn said, winning would give, "the GOP co-ownership of an awkward couple of years."

Jug Ears would veto anything they put forth anyways...right?

5 Whenever Dick Morris makes a prediction you can be sure that it won't be right. My prediction: 55 in the House, max of 6 in the Senate.

6 Why are big-name Republicans giving Charles Schumer a free pass?

Apparently Pataki doesn't want to run and there are no viable Republicans. They had to run out and convert a Democrat to run for Governor and he's spending his time attacking longtime GOP guy Rick Lazio. It's a primary, so that's going to happen but it shows what state the party is in.

Also, Chukie has tons of money.

The bigger shame is no challenger for Gillibrand.

7 Why are big-name Republicans giving Charles Schumer a free pass?

That one's easy.  1) He'd bury them in money twenty-to-one.  2) The NY Republican party is run by an incompetent member of the Nixon family who probably thinks that Schumer's a middle of the road moderate.

The bigger question is, why the FUCK is Alfonse D'Amato running interference on behalf of Gillibrand?  I've read reports that he's the one trying to keep Pataki out of the race.

8 5 The question is, do we want the House and Senate back?

Wouldn't it be better to miss the majority by one or two seats and have the Dems own the whole mess?

No.  We want them both. 

I'm sick of people playing chicken with the country's future. 

9

Even Nate Silver has it about a 50+ GOP seat pick up currently

 

 

10 I'm pretty sure the House has changed hands without the Senate also doing so, but I'm too busy/lazy to google it.

11 Shumer?  It's easier than that.
Heck, Gillenbrand's seat is there for the taking.  All Rudy or Pataki had to do was simply say they were running & it's pretty much a slam-dunk.  But, they haven't or won't.

Puzzling.

12 ooops...sorry Ace...shoulda clicked that link

13

I wish Dick Morris would tell me who is going to win the superbowl, so I could bet heavily on the other team and retire.

14 BTW, I don't think Shumer is up for re-election, yet.  It's Gillenbrand.

15 Palin tearing it up at the SLRC on C-Span right now

16 The question is, do we want the House and Senate back?

The answer is, absolutely yes.  We can't afford even another 2 more years of this socialist suicide track our country has been put on.   Obama and company are already going to try and push through every piece of crap on their legislative agenda as fast as humanly possible before the mid-terms.

I just don't think our nation can survive two more years of this, by then the damage might be irreparable.  Who gives a shit who gets blamed for what at this point, another 4 years of this crap and we won't have much of an America left.

17 15 They're both up.  Gilli is a special, Schumer's term is up.

18

Dick Morris?

He's ALWAYS wrong.

19 "Why are big-name Republicans giving Charles Schumer a free pass"

Schumer is not up for election... it's the other one... and I wish Pataki would get in...

20 Dick Morris had the Vikings in the last Super Bowl.

21 If Montanans could vote for senators in Nov. you'd see two more in the win column.

22
Dick Morris? He's a gossip.

I'll wait for the real expert on elections, Michael Barone, to weigh in.

23

Posted by: 3rd_Bird at April 09, 2010 01:56 PM

I heard Dick Morris say time after time that he was certain that Hillary was going to be Obysmal's running mate

24 Re: Rudy and Pataki... yeah, WTF?

Gillenbrand would toast if either entered the race. 

I suppose Rudy has lost his enthusiasm for electoral politics since getting his ass handed to him in the Republican primaries (and since he's learned the joy of earning metric fuck-tonnes of money through consulting).

More puzzling is Pataki.  What he doing with his spare time, other than sitting around at home in his underwear watching Sports Center and drinking beer?

25 My personal prediction?

Most people here will likely call me crazy, but I'm predicting 70-72 seats in the house, and yes I am predicting the Senate will flip as well.

26 Dick Morris took Iraq in Desert Storm I.

27

I heard Dick Morris say time after time that he was certain that Hillary was going to be Obysmal's running mate

I saw him on fox news saying Hillary will win the nomination and will be the next president.

28

5 The question is, do we want the House and Senate back?

Wouldn't it be better to miss the majority by one or two seats and have the Dems own the whole mess?

No, it's not better!  We simply don't have the luxury of time.  

29 I've looked and I have been unable to find an instance. (of course I mean when both houses are held by the same party) The Senate has changed without the House many times. Ah, apologies, you're probably right. I knew that there was split governance but I didn't have the direction of the split right.

30 Dick Morris? Never heard of him?

31 23 If Montanans could vote for senators in Nov. you'd see two more in the win column.

Posted by: Big Swede at April 09, 2010 02:01 PM (1EZ8w)

Yeah, that's sad.

btw, I just got an email that next week's big Federal oil and gas lease auction for Montana and North Dakota is being delayed by the Obamacommies at the BLM.

 

32

I wouldn't get too excited just yet. November is still quite a ways off.

I expect the GOP to do well -- as oppo parties always do in midterms -- but I wouldn't count too much on the "historic blowout" stuff. If the economy ticks back up over the summer, I'd expect a lot of the populist anger to subside. On the other hand, an old-fashioned SCOTUS donnybrook could keep the kettle a-boilin' clear through the summer, depending on how supine the GOP chooses to be.

It'll be interesting to see who the GOP trots out on the 2010 campaign trail as a preface to a 2012 presidential run. I think Mitt is probably a ghost; that MassCare albatross will sink him because he's going to be completely unable to speak out against ObamaCare without sounding like a hypocrite. Huck has his charms for certain folks, but I don't see him getting any real traction either. Palin? Maybe, but I doubt it: not only is she too polarizing for the congenitally unable-to-make-up-their-fricking-minds "independents", but she does the GOP more good as a catalyst to keep the GOP base fired up.

My own hope is that Minnesota's very own Tim Pawlenty runs. He's a good guy, he has solid conservative cred, and has lots of experience dealing with idiot leftist Democrats in his home state. If Tim gets out on the campaign trail with a high profile and starts getting favorable ink, it may convince him to run in 2012.

Paul Ryan is a dark-horse contender. He became a GOP star during the ObamaCare debates, but he may be too much of a numbers wonk. Also, he's a Representative -- traditionally, Governors or Senators get the nod for Presidential runs.

 

33

OT: Sarah puts a huge smackdown on "The Won":

In foreign policy, weÂ’ve got the makings of the Obama Doctrine: coddling our enemies while alienating allies.

The administration eased sanctions on Cuba and sided with Chavez against Honduran democracy. They won’t bring up human rights with China because, quote, ‘we know what they are going to say.’ They offer tepid sanctions on North Korea and ‘gold stars and cookies’ for the Sudanese President. They send letters to Iranian mullahs but can barely muster a word of support for the Green Movement seeking freedom and women’s rights in Iran!

And President Obama, with all that vast nuclear expertise he acquired as a community organizer, a part-time senator, and a candidate for president, has accomplished nothing to date with Iran or North Korea.

Meanwhile, this administration alienates our friends. They treated Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai poorly and acted surprised when he reacted in kind. And they escalated a minor zoning decision into a major breach with Israel, our closest ally in the Middle East.

Folks, someone needs to remind the President: Jerusalem is not a settlement. Israel is our friend. And the critical nuclear concerns of our time are North Korea, who has nuclear weapons, and Iran, who wants them.

34 What he doing with his spare time, other than sitting around at home in his underwear watching Sports Center and drinking beer? Um, that actually sounds pretty cool to me...

35 Morris always bets on the New Jersey Generals.

36 Concern troll is only mildly concerned today, isn't he?

Take the House. Take the Senate. Go to work six days a week indefinitely. Hold hearings on everything. Start putting legislation up to the president. Make him veto, veto, veto. Go to the Democrats who voted "No" on health care and say "you have some ideas we could work with and find some compromise on" and actually work with them and start giving Obama bills to veto that make him look really bad.

Shut the Democratic leadership out of everything.

We'll have enough votes to put major pressure on Obama. He can either crumble and a GOP/conservative Dem congressional coalition - true bipartisanship, there are 20-30 House Dems the GOP can with work productively on a lot of issues - they can run the country.

Or he can dig in his heels and look stubborn in the same way Bush did. The voters didn't blame the Dems for 2006-2008. They won't blame the GOP for 2010-2012. Break Obama well before the election, get him out, elect someone who knows what the hell they're doing, and really get to work.

If it worked out really well a lot of good things could already have been forced down Obama's throat in '10-'12.

If we get enough seats we'll have the power to break Obama's presidency if we do it right. We can and we should.

37

Republicans (and those who vote for them) should be careful what they wish for, because they might just get it.  I want them to get to 60 R's in the Senate, and then I want them to REPEAL the damn healthcare bill.  Even if Obama vetoes it, I want the Senate (and of course the House, too) to vote to repeal it.

But imagine if the R's do get to 60 votes in the Senate, and take the House.  And then they go all squishy on us and don't make that " repeal it" vote.  They go all nuancy on us. I predict all hell would break loose if people felt they'd been double-crossed again and that there really isn't anybody in DC who shares our goals and values.  That no matter who you vote for, you will get screwed. 

 

 

38 Dick Morris took Iraq in Desert Storm I.

Ya but Baghdad Bob was a lot more entertaining to watch.  "There are no American troops anywhere near Baghdad!  Those are complete lies!" He would say as an M-1 Abrams rolled past the cameras behind him in the streets of Baghdad..

Lol.. man, I miss that guy.

39 Monty, strongly agree on T-Paw. Smart guy, midwesterner, governor, not too conservative for the independents. That sounds just right for the general if he can get past the primaries.

40 I like Dick Morris. And if he is right.......how sweet to see Pelosi hand back the gavel to the Teaparty fringe element and fade into obscurity. Bitch won't be able to get a job giving rim jobs in the Congressional pisser.

41 Ace, David Malpasse was on Kudlow last night and Kudlpw was wishing him luck in the NYS Senate race, is he running for the GOP? Didnt he work for a GOP Admin a ways back?

42
In the House, we need 40 seats. It's do-able. Tough, but do-able. We need to make sure Bachman and Joe Wilson win. We cannot allow the Left those two victories.

This is what I'd like to see happen in the Senate: Reid gets defeated. Specter wins the primary and gets defeated in the general. McCain loses to Hayworth in the primary, and Hayworth wins. And we pick up Bayh's seat in Indiana.

So, +40 in the House to get rid of Madame Sneaker. And +3 key seats in the Senate. Bonus: we get rid of McCain.

43 Morris is still holding out hope for a Butler comeback.

44 More puzzling is Pataki.  What he doing with his spare time, other than sitting around at home in his underwear watching Sports Center and drinking beer?

Don't judge me, wingnut.

45

I sure as fuck hope it is huge in order to accomplish two things:

1.  Get the commiecrats out of power.

2.  Send a message to th republicans that we are SERIOUS about small goverment.  We are already seeing indications that the Republicans are not at all serious about reducing the size of government.  They need to GET serious about it.  We can't just go cutting social security and medicare and the like but we need to get right on doing things like Ryan has proposed.

46

Lol.. man, I miss that guy.

Hollywood missed a huge opportunity when they failed to build a sitcom around that guy. The stories just write themselves.

 

47 schumer's going nowhere. this is NY, not Mass.

48

If the Repubs run NEW blood, instead of recycle the same folks who got us into this mess???? 70+ seats.

If the Repubs continue on the road they are on now, only looking for Big Names... the same folks who got kicked out of power in the last couple election cycles?  45-50 just do to voter anger.

If the Repubs really gave a dam about this country, they would have people like McCain retiring... so the taint of the past would not become a factor with Independents, like meself.

49

But imagine if the R's do get to 60 votes in the Senate, and take the House.  And then they go all squishy on us and don't make that " repeal it" vote.  They go all nuancy on us. I predict all hell would break loose if people felt they'd been double-crossed again and that there really isn't anybody in DC who shares our goals and values.  That no matter who you vote for, you will get screwed. 

 No, don't think that's going to happen.. at least I don't think it will be as big of an issue in 2010 as it will be in 2012.

Remember until 2012 any "repeal" effort will just get vetoed by Obama and it's doubtful we'll put enough Republican's in place in 2010 to override a veto.  I think it's still imperative that they vote on repeal after 2010 and before 2012 though, if nothing else to force Obama to veto it.

Now if you look at what's happening in Arizona, for example, the republicans are being sent a clear message.  Yes, we are pissed at the democrats at the moment but the R behind your name is not job security.  If your a worthless RINO odds are good you won't win your own primary, even as an incumbent.

At the very least you'll be put in a position of working your ass off to defend your seat.  So, I think after a huge gain in seats in 2010 the republicans will stay focused and fight Obama's agenda until 2012.

Even if we still have some Rino's left by then, we can always go Rino hunting in 2012.  We don't need to do it all in one election.  We just need to get enough seats to enough quality people to halt and begin the process of reversing the damage O'Barry has done thus far.

Not a perfect solution, but it's what we have to work with at the moment.

50 skwiself, I'm not a concern troll.  I'm just trying to war game it.

Yeah, it'd be cool to have subpoena power and cause a ruckus.

Yeah, it'd be cool to hold up Ogabe's SCOTUS picks.

But, with Obama swinging his veto pen around like a lightsaber, the GOP isn't going to get shit done in 2 years.

The MSM goes full retard on the "Party of No and Party of Nothing Happening" and maybe the House and Senate flip back...

51 BTW, I don't think Shumer is up for re-election, yet.  It's Gillenbrand.
Posted by: Cam Winston at April 09, 2010 01:57 PM (5L9k4)

It's both. Schumer is up for his regular term. Gillibrand is running in a special election for the last 2 years of Hillary's term. Who ever wins has to run again in '12.

That's one reason I don't think Rudy ran...he'd essentially have to run for the next 3 years straight. It also maybe what's holding Pataki back.

Schumer is the Kennedy of NY. He's Senator for life.

52 #39 "That no matter who you vote for, you will get screwed. "

This was, to coin a phrase, unexpected?

53 The question is, do we want the House and Senate back?

Wouldn't it be better to miss the majority by one or two seats and have the Dems own the whole mess?

The GOP could still cause havoc with a near majority, then campaign for a clean sweep in 2012.
Posted by: RarestRX at April 09, 2010 01:54 PM (rmNST)

I don't have an answer of my own, but Michael Barone had an excellent essay at the American Enterprise Institute the other day comparing the mid-term elections of 1946 to today's circumstances and commenting on the accomplishments of the 80th congress:

Those well-versed in electoral history will point out that the Republicans lost their congressional majorities in 1948, as congressional Democrats ran ahead of Truman, who beat Dewey 50%–45%, and that Republicans have never again enjoyed the House majority they had in 1947–1948. But as those versed in the history of government policy know, the congressional majorities Democrats held in 1949–1952 and 1955-1964 were not large enough to repeal the work of what Truman called, quite inaccurately, the do-nothing 80th Congress. The 1947–1948 Republican Congress eliminated wage and price controls, sharply reduced the powers of labor unions by passing over Truman’s veto the Taft-Hartley Act, and made at least a slight dent in wartime high tax rates. Those proved enduring policy successes. They also made possible the bounteous postwar economic growth which was so glaringly absent in welfare-state Britain.

54 DON'T COUNT ON PICKING UP ANY SEATS FROM GUAM, YOU ISLAND KILLING SONSABITCHES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

55
If the Republicans win big, this November, and then renege on all their conservative posturing, they'll lose even bigger in 2012 and the party will probably be defunct by 2014.

56 Ace,
Three Sunday evenings ago when Obama-Care passed, did I not promise that I would deliver a new idea that could ultimately redound to the preservation of the Republic? (Or something like that?)
Well, here it is: http://docs.google.com/View?id=d9zrjs6_12g68ptbg5

That is a Google Doc link to an Amendment proposal. I ask that you and everyone give it a look and to not be quick to dismiss. Though the language of the Amendment itself is short, the thought that went into its mechanisms was not casual. It is well researched, and the accompanying argumentation is thorough.
Like any Amendment, it would take years to get ratified, but it would be well worth it.

57 Schumer is the Kennedy of NY. He's Senator for life.

Posted by: DrewM. at April 09, 2010 02:13 PM (9B5OK)

pretty much this. Schumer wins consistently despite upstate(outside of the cities) going red over and over. NYC liberals like their free money, and Schumer delivers.

58 Question: "Why are big-name Republicans giving Charles Schumer a free pass?..."

Good question. If a challenger cannot beat (or at least threaten) a progressive liberal now at this unique time and circumstance, then the opposition just isn't a viable party in the district. Given the furious public and the context of Brown, I don't believe there's a safe liberal in the nation. Every one of them can and should be given political grief both on the odd chance that the "unbeatable" gets thrashed or the even chance that the unbeatable gets bogged down and cannot work more globally to help troubled peers.

There's not a safe seat in government. Hit them now while we still have the muscle.

59 We've got the special election coming up in FL next week to replace Wexler on the 13th. 

If Lynch(R) can make a strong showing against Deutch(D), who the Palm Beach Post described in their endorsement as "reliably liberal", that's probably a good indicator of what's to come in Nov. 

60 Put me down for 68.

61
Whenever Dick Morris makes a prediction you can be sure that it won't be right. My prediction: 55 in the House, max of 6 in the Senate.

Posted by: joncelli at April 09, 2010 01:55 PM (RD7QR)

I was gonna say, however if Kos starts predicting that the Republicans wont take back both houses then you can damn well bet they will.

62 But, with Obama swinging his veto pen around like a lightsaber, the GOP isn't going to get shit done in 2 years.

President veto still needs a budget. And guess who has to write it. Is he willing to go all tirade shut down the government veto man to spend us into oblivion, while Republicans refuse to deliver a budget that does so? If he does, the next campaign kind of writes itself.

63
If Lynch(R) can make a strong showing against Deutch(D), who the Palm Beach Post described in their endorsement as "reliably liberal", that's probably a good indicator of what's to come in Nov.

Define 'strong showing.'

64 Oooops

65

A majority think the broadcast media misled them. That is how I am reading it.

66 It's the Obama Curse.

67 A lot can change between now and November, the economy could get worse.

68

But, with Obama swinging his veto pen around like a lightsaber, the GOP isn't going to get shit done in 2 years.

Yeah but Obama won't get shit done either.  That's definitely a net positive for America by stopping the America-destroying plans of this pathetic excuse for a president.

69

...by then the damage might be irreparable.

I wish I could remember who said this: "Anything government has done can be undone."

The GOP needs to start getting tough with the corrupt progressive punks who are doing their damnedest to destroy the country.

No prisoners, no quarter, politically speaking of course.

70 The bigger shame is no challenger for Gillibrand.

That I do not understand at all. 

71 #62


if he loses by <10, it's going to be nasty.

if he WINS, it will be a bloodbath.

72
Dave, re your Amendment 28: Is it eliminating the fed's power to tax individual income?

73 Dick Morris took Iraq in Desert Storm I. Dick Morris took the Escalade in Grand Theft Auto.

74

Okay here's how I see it.

Right now there are 253 D's, 178 R's, and 4 vacant seats.  Total = 435.

The 4 vacant seats are: NY-29 (Massa-D), PA-12 (Murtha-D), HI-1 (Abercrombie-D), and GA-09 (Deal-R).

According to Cook Political, there are 5 D seats that are either "lean R" or "likely R", and one vacant D seat (NY-29) that is "lean R).  There are also 26 seats (24 D, 2 R), as well as the two remaining vacant D seats, that are tossup.  The two tossup R seats are IL-10 (Kirk) and LA-02 (Cao).  There is also 1 R seat listed as "lean D" (DE-01, Castle).

So:  If the R's take all of the "likely R/lean R" seats, and take all of the tossup seats, and take all of the vacant seats, and hold DE-01, then that would give the R's 211 and the D's 224, or +33 for R's.  Still not enough.

For the R's to get at least 7 more seats, they would need to pick up some "lean D" seats in heavy R districts.  There are 9 districts that have PVI indices of R+6 or higher.  But, some of these are entrenched incumbents who will be almost impossible to defeat.  There are also 10 D freshmen on the "lean D" list, which may be easier to defeat but may not come from a heavily R district.

The bottom line for me is that it's not a slam dunk that the R's will retake the House, it's going to be tough.

75 Every time I see Dick Morris name, I am reminded about how he swore Hillary was going to be drummed by Lazio back in 2000. We all know how great that prediction was.

76 5 The question is, do we want the House and Senate back?

Wouldn't it be better to miss the majority by one or two seats and have the Dems own the whole mess?

Yes we do and no it would not. We have to defund ObamaCare, PERIOD. It'll take control of the House to do that. Boehner has already pledged to do that; we may have to hold his feet to the fire on it but at least with him as Speaker of the next Congress there will be a chance. We have to bottle Obama up in the Senate, PERIOD. For the time being, at least, it does still take a two-thirds Senate majority to ratify that disarm-America treaty Obastard just signed, assuming the Dems even care about that anymore and don't just use 51 votes for it. If they're left with a one-or-two seat majority then it'll be full-speed simple-majority all the way on every last bit of Senate business.

The Dems owning the whole mess will be cold comfort when we're left to stand around in the ashes of what used to be our country, figuratively and perhaps even literally.

Punch up! Fight to win! It seems like there's somebody who pushes the "lose now to win later" strategy every cycle.

77 Dick, please shut the fuck up already. You're an even bigger jinx than Obama.

78

The 4 vacant seats are: NY-29 (Massa-D), PA-12 (Murtha-D), HI-1 (Abercrombie-D), and GA-09 (Deal-R).

What about Wexler's seat?

79

The MSM has already gone "full retard". They can't go any further.

 

If the GOP makes the predicted gains this November, it will be BECAUSE the people want Obama stopped. I doubt that the Pubs will be tosssed right back out again for opposing the blatantly dangerous Obama policies, and/or attempting to repeal what has proven to be a highly unpopular health care bill.

 

 "Party of No" will be worn like a badge of honor.

80

The bottom line for me is that it's not a slam dunk that the R's will retake the House, it's going to be tough.

I concur, ol' chum. You broke it down like Michael Barone would.

81

Dick Morris continues predicting the Sentate will flip...

I think it was during the 2004 election that FOX did a montage of Morris making rpedictions during the 2000 election....every one was wrong.

82

Dick Morris bet a friend 100 bucks Scott Norwood was going to make that kick during Superbowl XXV.

83 The older I get and the more I observe, the more I think the true power is in the Congress. Having the Presidency is with rare exception (Reagan) mostly symbolic and an easy target for the half aware  public to put all the blame on. On refllction I'd much rather that conservatives hold the House and Senate and let the President become neutered, which in Obama's case he would welcome since he's already a eunuch. Wishful thinking, I know.

84 Oh. Hmm.  My math is off a bit.  I guess that is what I get for relying on Wikipedia.  Anyway, the point is the same though: it's going to be hard work to take the House, it's not a sure thing.

85 I expect the GOP to do well -- as oppo parties always do in midterms -- but I wouldn't count too much on the "historic blowout" stuff. If the economy ticks back up over the summer, I'd expect a lot of the populist anger to subside.

You've said this before... why are you expecting the economy to tick back up by November? Seriously. 'Cause nobody sees even a hint of recovery on the horizon that doesn't involve government hiring. The only thing ticking surging up is the price of OIL, and if people are in a world of hurt now just imagine what it's going to be like when gas prices are back to 4 bucks a gallon (likely by mid-summer), or even higher.

I see the GOP's chances of taking the House at about 70-30 and the Senate at almost 50-50.

86 If gas goes to $4 a gallon this summer as predicted, I think Morris may well be right. Remember last time gas went that high, 2008, it turned out to be a bad year for the incumbents.

87

69 seats!

Oooooh yeaaaaah!

88 What good does all this polling data do, Ace? Unless you reveal that Obama was born in Cuba and the entire Democratic party takes orders from the Chinese government, you're part of the problem

89


Dick Morris once said that Cop Rock would be the break-out hit of the season.

90 The Republicans don't have a challenger to Gillibrand because the Republican leadership in NY are Democrat hacks. Hence the need for a Conservative Party in NY.

91 Hum - OT but very interesting: " A key government document detailing the evidence against former Gov. Rod Blagojevich will be unsealed, a federal judge ruled today, but portions could remain sealed after prosecutors and defense lawyers weigh in with their views." Someone's tutu must be in a real bunch right now.

92

The only thing ticking surging up is the price of OIL, and if people are in a world of hurt now just imagine what it's going to be like when gas prices are back to 4 bucks a gallon (likely by mid-summer), or even higher.

Hell, that's easy. I'll just make sure my tires are properly inflated. In accordance with our President's well thought out and sage energy policy.

93 95 Dick Morris once said that Cop Rock would be the break-out hit of the season.

Dude, even I called bullshit on that one.

94

Dick Morris once said that Geraldine "Jerry"  Ferrara was undergoing surgery to become a woman. It was the closest thing to right he ever was.

95 Question: "Why are big-name Republicans giving Charles Schumer a free pass?..."

Gillibrand is up, too.  NY Republicans have their heads pretty far up their asses; probably can't figure out who challenges which.

96

REVISION

Right now there are 253 D's, 177 R's, and 5 vacant seats.  Total = 435.

The 5 vacant seats are: NY-29 (Massa-D), PA-12 (Murtha-D), HI-01 (Abercrombie-D), FL-19 (Wexler-D), and GA-09 (Deal-R).

According to Cook Political, there are 5 D seats that are either "lean R" or "likely R", and one vacant D seat (NY-29) that is "lean R".  There are also 26 seats (24 D, 2 R), as well as two vacant D seats (HI-01 and PA-12), that are tossup.  The two tossup R seats are IL-10 (Kirk) and LA-02 (Cao).  There is also 1 R seat listed as "lean D" (DE-01, Castle).  FL-19 is listed as "solid D" and GA-09 is listed as "solid R".

So:  If the R's take all of the "likely R/lean R" seats, and take all of the tossup seats, and take 4/5 of the vacant seats, and hold DE-01, then that would give the R's 209 and the D's 226, or +32 for R's.  Still not enough.

For the R's to get at least 9 more seats, they would need to pick up some "lean D" seats in heavy R districts.  There are 9 districts that have PVI indices of R+6 or higher.  But, some of these are entrenched incumbents who will be almost impossible to defeat.  There are also 10 D freshmen on the "lean D" list, which may be easier to defeat but may not come from a heavily R district.

The bottom line for me is that it's not a slam dunk that the R's will retake the House, it's going to be tough.

97 Hence the need for a Conservative Party in NY.

The last time they sent someone to Congress was 40 years ago.

98 I don't think the economy will come back any time soon. There is no reason for it to come back, and plenty of reasons for it to stay in the hole.

99 Whoops - that should be 210 R, 225 D.

100 Of course the more seats we take the better, but hell 45 gain is good enough. That many and we can stop just about anything the prezmarxist puts forward.

There would be an unbreakable smile on my face for weeks if we gained in the 70 range, that would do more to ensure a lame duck term and failure than almost anything.  Plus it would help in the belief that most people still believe in an exceptional USA and aren't going to embrace this far left thinking.

101 #45

You got most of it right except Haywood.  He's a flake and won't win the primary. 

I see 50 instead of 40, and Joe Wilson is NOT in trouble.

102 >>>BTW, I don't think Shumer is up for re-election, yet. It's Gillenbrand. He is. Both seats are up. Earlier someone asked, when this situation pops up, how it's determiend WHICH seat you're running for? I found out the answer. Senate seats are categorized by classes, class 1, class 2, and class 3, which indicates when they're up for re-election in a six year cycle -- which are up in this two year period, when in this one, when in that one. Gillibrand's seat is one class and Shumer's in another. So people running for senate specifically indicate "I'm running for Class 1 senate" or "I'm running for class 3 senate." (Or whichever.) That's what the ballots will say too.

103

I don't think the economy will come back any time soon. There is no reason for it to come back, and plenty of reasons for it to stay in the hole.

 

See? You wingnuts are roting for the economy to fail. Talking it down. It will take 157 years for Obama to dig us out of the hole tthat Bush left us. The stock market is up! Census jobs! bwahaahahahhaaaa

:dragged off to a rubber room:

104 3 words: Obama thinks $4  a gallon is too low.

105
try it again, jeff. third time is a charm

106

The older I get and the more I observe, the more I think the true power is in the Congress. Having the Presidency is with rare exception (Reagan) mostly symbolic and an easy target for the half aware  public to put all the blame on.

Well...no. Given the President's power over foreign policy and his wide war-making powers, he's still got the whip hand in terms of our relationships to both allies and enemies. Domestically, the veto power and the VP's power as the deciding vote in the Senate give the Executive a lot of power there as well. The President also has the power of pardon, as well as other fiat powers.

The office reflects the man in it, in both good and bad ways.

 

107 Chemjeff -- Cook is a partisan Democrat. Don't trust him.

108 92 If gas goes to $4 a gallon this summer as predicted, I think Morris may well be right. Remember last time gas went that high, 2008, it turned out to be a bad year for the incumbents.

For every problem there is a solution. Under my plan, rising gas prices will have the benefit of getting people out of their cars and into dirty overcrowded buses. There they will enjoy the benefits of close contact with fellow Americans and learn their language.

For those of you not blessed with bus service, the Soros Tire Guage Co. has agreed to distribute tire guages to car owners for the low cost of 50 billion of stimulus money

109 Appending Monty's comment:

Plus, the President has all of his henchmen in executive positions. It takes forever for the Legislative to agree to meet, much less unite, to reassert authority over rogue agencies. See EPA. The Judicial response is, typically, even slower. Executive response rate is the fastest. Corrections by the other branches usually don't take effect for years if at all.

110 Chemjeff, the only problem I have with your analysis and anybody else's is its either a wave election or its not. If its a wave, just like we faced in the last two elections, all kinds of dem seats could fall.  Waves are hard to predict.

The thing to watch is R enthusiasm vs. D enthusiasm and which way the independents are going.  That last one has got to be a worry for the dems as they are fleeing away from the dems by double digit margins.  Having a +6D margin will not cover a +12 independent swing.

111 But Intrade has Dems up 20% for mid-terms!!!!!

112 Dick Morris once predicted that the sky would fall. Still waiting.

113 Assuming there is a double-dip recession (or the perception of a double dip) by October, I'm predicting 80 seats. If not, 60ish. But this index http://consumermetricsinstitute.com/index.html seem to indicate that we'll show negative GDP for the 1st quarter. That's double-dip territory!

114 Ref the predictions of experts... http://tinyurl.com/ybhbxuh Experts less successful than Chimps in predicting the future. "... the least accurate predictions were made by the most famous experts in the group."

115 Having fun in N Dakota. Rep. Pomeroy should be seeking family time because his numbers are so bad. Former Senator Dorgan said his family is sooo important that he's giving up the chance to win in an uphill battle. LOL. Even the mighty Senator Conrad is looking at his family. He'll get the size 12 in 2012. Of course, I want a mortgage from Countrywide as beneficial as Conrad and Dodd received. Given time, N Dakota will be beet red. No Rinos.

116 Hey, Mallamutt, how 'bout that Steele MOE-RON pi$$ing away $120-plus million?

117

Frank Luntz was just on Cavuto and he said he originally predicted a 25-seat gain in the House, he's revising to 30.  He says we're going to hear at least two or three more retirement announcements from the dems soon. 

When he told Eric Bolling (Neil's replacement today) that "You have no idea how hard it is to refuse Nancy Pelosi when she's in your face saying, Don't you dare retire," Bolling said, "Why? So you quit.  What can she do to you?"

Luntz replied that leaving Pelosi without an incumbent to run in Nov. will leave said retiree without ANY job to fall back on and no returned phone calls.   

118 I wanna know why people are giving Chuck U Schumer a pass too. He CAN BE BEATEN. Will it be easy, no, but nothing worthwhile in life is.
I'd like Republicans to start chanting "Veto Proof Majority". Yeah its unlikely, but you gotta start dreaming, and I'm dreaming big.
Besides that way the MSM can spin the election as a defeat, even if we retake the house. "Yeah, But you're not veto proof"

119 I predict 105 House seats, and 14 Senate seats.

I'm not kidding either.

120 BANG, BANG, BANG Posted by: Head being pounded on desk Mallamutt Why you banging your head on the table?

121 BANG, BANG, BANG

Posted by: Head being pounded on desk Mallamutt

Sounds hollow.

Hey.  Didn't the RNC have about $120mil?  Anyone knows where it went?

122 39  That's a pretty valid concern (and big effing deal).  The mood in the country is not good -- many old fashioned Dems feel as though their party has betrayed them; even some younger liberals are feeling a bit butt hurt thanks to the economy.  The Republicans can pull off a victory like no other -- but they will fail miserably if they do not step up to the plate and really hit the ball (no walks, no singles, no bunts, and definitely no sacrifice pop flys).  What concerns me is that they won't, and the country is depending on it this time.  If they fail, then we are all very much sunk, and it will take something much more drastic (and far worse) to save us.

123 I know I'm late to the party;  but the adjustment of the Rasmussen generic Congressional numbers isn't for under-sampling Conservatives. It's because Democrats are very heavily concentrated in a small number of districts (due mostly to race-based redistricting.) There are far more Democratic than Republican votes "wasted" in districts won by 60% or more. Therefore 50% of the national Congressional vote gets a majority for the GOP but not for the Democrats.

124 Ever since the dems declared jeehod on the taxpayers actually passed obamacare, I've been saying the over / under has to be 60

125

@54: "Schumer is the Kennedy of NY. He's Senator for life."

Um, in that case, based on our experience, dude might wanna seriously consider investing in a kevlar helmet or three.

126 In response to the question in post #76:  "Dave, re your Amendment 28: Is it eliminating the fed's power to tax individual income?"

Yes, Fred. The proposed 28th Amendment eliminates the Fed Gov's power to tax anything except the revenue of State of governments

127 To familiarize others, the language reads: "The Congress shall not have power to lay and collect taxes of any kind within the borders of a State with the exclusive exception of a revenue-tax which shall be solely based on the accrued revenue of that State's government."
To read the profound implications of the proposed Amendment, please visit my Google Docs page at: http://docs.google.com/View?id=d9zrjs6_12g68ptbg5

128 "Schumer is the Kennedy of NY. He's Senator for life."

Wasn't there something a while back about Larry Kudlow possibly running against Schumer? Kudlow could self-fund and totally eliminate Schumer's monetary advantages.

129 This all assumes that Obamafuhrer doesn't find an "excuse" to "postpone" the elections.

130 26 Rudy wanted to run for Governor against Paterson, but then it looked like he would be up against Cuomo instead and he had to rethink things. Every NY state county chair said they would back his pick for leader of the NY state GOP, a nice guy from Niagara, if he would commit to running for Governor. But he got cold feet, and now Ed Cox is running the show. He got into some public fight with Rudy, telling him to run for Senate instead. It seems Rudy was so pissed off (who can blame him -- look what that jackass did in NY23) that he has no intention of running for anything now.

131 61 Schumer is more vulnerable than many think. Yes, the Scott Brown victory was a wake-up call to the Democrats. But Harold Ford was originally sent to challenge Gillebrand and send a message to Schummer from his supporters. Read NY Mag's Is Harold Ford Jr. Really Running Against Schumer? Others picked up the story as well. Ford dropped out, but there's blood in the water.

132 Oh, I'm also pissed that Michael Steele has pissed away $120 million. If he'd step down for the good of the party, there would be a flood of donations.

133

thank you ...

Ïáíá ãæÇÞÚ ÇáÊÍáíÉ ßæßÊíá ÇáÇÞÊÕÇÏ ÇáãäÒáí ãäÊÏíÇÊ ãäÊÏíÇÊ ßæßÊíá

134 balenciaga purse,balenciaga sale,Up to 70% off balenciaga handbags,latest balenciaga handbags clothes style,Free gift and Fast ship. balenciaga purse balenciaga sale Buy cartier ring, cartier love on abcartier.com. We also provide cartier bracelet, cartier jewelry and so on. Now come on and get what you want. Cartier Jewelry

135

On this page you will find the various styles of womens jordan heels , the Air Jordan knit boots  combines a classic prep school pattern and a cozy sweater knit for the coolest, most comfortable. The shoe is as unique as any other Jordan model relative to the rest of the field. Starting at the toe, the toe cap has Michael Jordan's signature embossed. The side of the shoe features a stitched pattern that gives the shoes strength in addition to cosmetic effect.

136

Have you ever seen such fashion of Chanel online store ? In comparison with sporadic release in last few years, this year is really good for Chanel lovers. We have informed Chanel shoes online  of new released discount Chanel boots  autumn/winter collection 2010 to our customer. Luckily, we have get large inquires on it. We are so glad to hear from all over the world.