July 19, 2010
— Gabriel Malor Wall Street Journal floats the idea that Republicans may take back more than the House in November.
The emergence of competitive Republican candidates in Wisconsin, Washington and California—Democratic-leaning states where polls now show tight races—bring the number of seats that Republicans could seize from the Democrats to 11.Democrats now control the Senate 59-41—after the death of Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, who was replaced by Republican Sen. Scott Brown—including two independents who usually vote with them. That means Republicans need 10 seats to take a 51-49 advantage.
Republicans would have to win virtually every competitive race to retake the Senate, without losing any seats of their own—clearly an uphill climb. The trouble for Democrats is that many trends are against them. Surveys show that Republicans are more motivated than Democrats to go to the polls, and that voters are looking for new leadership in Congress.
"I think there is definitely a chance" of losing the Senate, said Democratic strategist Gary Nordlinger, a Washington-based media consultant. "I wouldn't call it a probability, but there is certainly a chance."
"Republicans still have to [win] all the competitive races in order to get to a majority, but at least there are enough seats on the table to pull it off," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report.
Now, don't get your hopes up too much. Like it says, this is an uphill battle. I still expect Democrats to start with the usual tricks in September and October -- the feminist dog whistle. The claims that Republicans are going to steal Social Security from seniors. (Unusually, the claims of racism will be blunted from overuse during the past year; the boy-who-cried-racism feature of this presidency may doom typical Democratic race cries for a few years.)
To this point the Democrats have been raising money and taking attacks of opportunity when our candidates stumble. That's not a campaign, that's a holding pattern. Incumbents like Barbara Boxer, Dirty Harry, and Colorado Senator Michael Bennett have millions tucked away while their Republican opponents are campaigning on a shoestring margin.
Still, check out Real Clear Politics Battle for the Senate map. It's possible.
Posted by: Gabriel Malor at
07:01 AM
| Comments (68)
Post contains 365 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at July 19, 2010 07:05 AM (8lCJT)
Posted by: Lindsey Graham at July 19, 2010 07:06 AM (mQ8O/)
Good Lord I can't even wrap my head around this.
I just want to see [insert Republican here] shove that oversized gavel up Nan's keister.
I ask for so very little.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at July 19, 2010 07:07 AM (pLTLS)
Posted by: Vic at July 19, 2010 07:07 AM (/jbAw)
The Democrats "saved the country" by paying off their partisans and the voters are about to reward them by throwing them out and rewarding the people the State Media blame for the economic collapse.
Posted by: 18-1 at July 19, 2010 07:07 AM (bgcml)
The current regime cares only about increasing its power over the American people. By any means necessary.
Political junkies are stuck in their own dream-world where everyone plays by the rules. Not only does that devalue their predictions and assessments, it makes them useful fodder for rabid howler monkeys like Biden.
Posted by: MrScribbler at July 19, 2010 07:08 AM (Ulu3i)
Yet another reason I don't support the Tea Party.
Posted by: Ella at July 19, 2010 07:10 AM (i/9Ph)
Posted by: Truman North at July 19, 2010 07:12 AM (HLGCA)
Posted by: Truman North at July 19, 2010 07:12 AM (HLGCA)
Posted by: Truman North at July 19, 2010 07:12 AM (HLGCA)
Posted by: UGRev at July 19, 2010 07:13 AM (862vz)
Posted by: Truman North at July 19, 2010 07:13 AM (HLGCA)
Posted by: Diffus at July 19, 2010 07:14 AM (rcrGT)
Don't like the speculating.
Posted by: beasn at July 19, 2010 07:14 AM (aiWtu)
"The claims that Republicans are going to steal Social Security from seniors."
How about counting with "We can't steal what the Democrats already stole."
Posted by: Burn the Witch at July 19, 2010 07:15 AM (fLHQe)
It's a nice dream, and I'll throw some money to the best shots at dethroning the dems, but I'm not holding my breath.
Posted by: NJConservative at July 19, 2010 07:15 AM (LH6ir)
If the Democrats try this, things might get ugly fast.
The Democrats won in 2006/8 by claiming to be economic conservatives and social moderates. They've been leftwing extremists though, and at least since 2008 the voters have noticed.
If people vote for cutting the budget, AGAIN, in 2010, and somehow the Dems get 51% of the vote with serious charges of wide spread voting irregularities I think all they'll have done is convinced tea parties types that peaceful change is impossible...
Posted by: 18-1 at July 19, 2010 07:16 AM (bgcml)
I know a lot of retired seniors, and I think the past two years has done a LOT to harden them against traditional democrat scare tactics.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at July 19, 2010 07:18 AM (Z7zil)
Posted by: Soap MacTavish at July 19, 2010 07:19 AM (554T5)
YAY, then when the republicans get enough seats they can cut deal with obama to get more goodies.
Posted by: Ben at July 19, 2010 07:20 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Sparky at July 19, 2010 07:21 AM (r0u40)
Posted by: Warden at July 19, 2010 07:21 AM (fE6tn)
You had it right the first time. It takes that many to offset the RINOs who will, cross the aisle.
Posted by: Vic at July 19, 2010 07:21 AM (/jbAw)
Vitter's constantly polling at 50% or better, with his worst showings being in Dem-commissioned PPP polls... where he still beats Charlie Melancon by about 10 points. Every other poll puts him up between 12 and 20% and Melancon's not exactly an unknown who will get higher numbers when people learn more about him, as he's gotten a lot of press this year as a leader of the Blue Dogs.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at July 19, 2010 07:21 AM (olRjO)
The Democrats won in 2006/8 by claiming to be economic conservatives and social moderates. They've been leftwing extremists though, and at least since 2008 the voters have noticed.
If people vote for cutting the budget, AGAIN, in 2010, and somehow the Dems get 51% of the vote with serious charges of wide spread voting irregularities I think all they'll have done is convinced tea parties types that peaceful change is impossible...
Was thinking something along the same lines. Remember that if the vote isn't close, they can't cheat. ACORN-like trickery only works in tight races.
The end-game though is amnesty. If the Dems are able to get 10-12 million untill-recently-illegal-immigrant voters en masse for the next election cycle, the gig's up.
In the end, though, there will be only chaos.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at July 19, 2010 07:22 AM (9hSKh)
If the Democrats try this, things might get ugly fast.
In a sense, I agree. Things got ugly damn fast in 2008, when Osama Obama rode the coattails of ACORN, the Black Panthers and millions of ineligible voters to victory.
The system works. The "system" of fraud, lies and intimidation, that is.
The squishes who currently dominate the Repub party share some guilt, as none had the Dangling Courage Units to go after the blatant illegalities employed in the election.
It isn't enough to decry the shameful methods employed by the Traitor-in-Chief and his party to gain and hold power. Action -- starting with the enforcement of existing election laws regardless of race or party affiliation -- is necessary.
You'd think we would have learned that by now. But as long as the Repub ranks are filled with McConnels, Browns, Snowes, etc., we will continue to lose.
Posted by: MrScribbler at July 19, 2010 07:23 AM (Ulu3i)
Hey Purple Avenger ,
I think the best thing that can be done for "the seniors" is to nuke the AARP from orbit. They are no help and a propaganda machine. I get their crap in the mail all the time and it goes straight to the trash can.
Posted by: Pocono Joe at July 19, 2010 07:25 AM (dycdV)
Posted by: Captain Hate at July 19, 2010 07:27 AM (qPpkJ)
Just got my son registered to vote for the 1st time. Told him he votes a straight R or he finds another place to live. ahha
Posted by: Timbo at July 19, 2010 07:28 AM (ph9vn)
Plan 9 from Texas-
March on Washington, Tar and Feather all federals found, raze D.C. and relocate capital to Wasilla, Alaska, go home.
Posted by: Jimmy's Attack Rabbit at July 19, 2010 07:28 AM (0B3Jc)
Unless you believe that elections in, like, the USSR were totally fair and above board.
Posted by: Ella at July 19, 2010 07:28 AM (i/9Ph)
Posted by: Mark Foley at July 19, 2010 07:29 AM (VXBR1)
"Just got my son registered to vote for the 1st time. Told him he votes a straight R or he finds another place to live. ahha"
ZOMG VOTER INTIMIDATIONZ!!!11!
Posted by: THE GREAT AND POWERFUL SHABAZZ! at July 19, 2010 07:30 AM (V40IZ)
I remember Rush Limbaugh waxing poetic about how it would be if we could only have a Republican president and some majorities in Congress. Oh what we could do to set this country back on an even keel and back to it's origins. And business will flourish and taxes will be lowered and, and , and.... Well we had that while GW was in the White House didn't we. What happened? I'm too old for that crap, I've heard that tune one too many times before.
Posted by: Pocono Joe at July 19, 2010 07:32 AM (dycdV)
Posted by: Mark Foley at July 19, 2010 11:29 AM (VXBR1)
Can I subscribe to your newsletter. Oh, and hugs!
Posted by: Eric Massa at July 19, 2010 07:33 AM (bgcml)
Speaking of razing DC (WCH), the article in WaPo about the intelligence apparatus that permeates the city was worth the read. With all that capacity, turf battles, and unaccountability, one wonders how long (if it already hasn't happened) before that capability will be turned on us.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at July 19, 2010 07:34 AM (3iMgs)
Posted by: reason at July 19, 2010 07:36 AM (V40IZ)
"Just got my son registered to vote for the 1st time. Told him he votes a straight R or he finds another place to live. ahha"
ZOMG VOTER INTIMIDATIONZ!!!11!
Posted by: THE GREAT AND POWERFUL SHABAZZ! at July 19, 2010 11:30 AM (V40IZ)
Damn straight its intimidation! I will be standing beside him with a night stick.
Posted by: Timbo at July 19, 2010 07:37 AM (ph9vn)
Hey Big Fat,
The pay, benefits and pensions for the gargantuan bureaucracy in Washington will probably do us in before anything else. It's killing this country between rules and costs. The bureaucracy grows to meet the needs of the growing bureaucracy.
Posted by: Pocono Joe at July 19, 2010 07:39 AM (dycdV)
Why wait for November? For a small cover charge and a 2 drink minimum, you can already see the item of your choice shoved up up Nan's keister at Daddy's Levi and Leather bar on Castro street. They have two shows nightly!
Posted by: Gavin Newsom at July 19, 2010 07:40 AM (WKprX)
Since when are probability and chance two different things? (I know, I'm just nitpicking)
Posted by: Chairman LMAO at July 19, 2010 07:40 AM (snlsw)
Posted by: skye at July 19, 2010 07:42 AM (HwMXR)
Posted by: bang bang bang at July 19, 2010 07:50 AM (1tJr/)
Posted by: Jon at July 19, 2010 07:56 AM (Xt7UU)
Posted by: Vic at July 19, 2010 08:04 AM (/jbAw)
Jon - the real question for what will happen in NV is this - who has more enthusiastic support?
It is very similar to how Obama got elected. He had a very enthusiastic base of support. People who were DEFINITELY gonna get out there and vote for him. By contrast, those of us that voted for McCain did so more out of objection to Obama, or support moreso for Palin.
How many people are enthusiastic for Reid? I would argue that the majority of people who will vote for him in November would be voting for him regardless of his opposition. If you're so dulled mentally that you're voting for Reid, then there's little that can be done to reach you.
So Angle needs to reach out to "everyone else." How many people does Angle have that are enthusiastic about her campaign? How many people are gonna do whatever it takes to get out and vote for her on election day, and bring a friend? Ain't nobody going to vote for Reid that's gonna bring a friend...
Posted by: reason at July 19, 2010 08:09 AM (V40IZ)
Posted by: Jeffrey Quick at July 19, 2010 08:15 AM (g9neE)
Posted by: ParisParamus at July 19, 2010 08:15 AM (bN5ZU)
Posted by: denny crane at July 19, 2010 08:16 AM (I+7Zv)
Funny, I predicted this quite some time ago myself, that republicans would retake both the house and the senate.
Then that damn Dick Morris stole my schtick. Curse you Dick.. curse you..
Lol
Posted by: Stuck On Stupid at July 19, 2010 08:43 AM (e8T35)
Posted by: Have Blue at July 19, 2010 08:51 AM (mV+es)
Don't go giving Feingold a free pass here. This state has almost been destroyed by one party rule. We have an open governor's race since Doyle is trying to get out of town before the tar gets warm and the chickens are plucked. The pub has a very good chance of getting the seat and much of the electorate is totally p*ssed at the higher taxes and job losses over the last two years.
This election must be seen in its own context. Our country has never been in a position of high unemployment, sky-rocketing debt, anger at government, etc. as we see now. It is like all the bad stars are in alignment not seen in our lifetimes. And remember, 52% of America did not vote for Prezzidunt Chicksh*t. 52% of the people who bothered to show up on election day did. That was a little more than half the electorate. We won't win by changing a lot of minds. We win by more of us showing up and more of them staying home.
I don't care what Sharon Angle thinks of floridation, I care about bitch-slapping Reid all the way back to Searchlight. The primary is over and we go from here. If Lowden and Tarkanian don't get in line and help but would rather whine and undercut, then I guess it was just about them to begin with and not about Country. I don't remember Reagan whining about losing to Ford in '76, just manning up and going forward for Country and Party.
Posted by: bigred at July 19, 2010 09:02 AM (uh7Ap)
If the Democrats try this, things might get ugly fast.
Posted by: 18-1 at July 19, 2010 11:16 AM (bgcml)
They have tried this many times in the past and they have never been held to account. Don't fool yourself, they will get off scot-free, because they control everything and the Republicans are too cowardly to do anything.
Posted by: KG at July 19, 2010 09:41 AM (S8TF5)
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Posted by: Winston "Mel Gibson" Wolf at July 19, 2010 07:04 AM (nWdDY)