September 09, 2010

Bending the Health Care Cost Curve, Obama Style
— Geoff

The Office of the Actuary of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services just came out with their latest projection of National Health Expenditures. Since they also made a pre-Obamacare projection last February, we can easily find the cost savings of Obamacare. And here you have it:

Obamacare-Cost-Comparison.gif


If it seems to you that Obamacare actually costs more than our old unacceptably costly system, then you're obviously a racist.

"But Hey!" the liberal set opines, "at least Obamacare is insuring millions more people, so we're getting more for our money!!"

Har. Looking through their report you'll find that they have once again assumed that doctor's Medicare fees will be cut by 23% after 2010. You also find that while Medicaid enrollment in 2019 is supposed to go up by 1/3 as a result of the new policies, they only allow for a 10% increase in cost. And I particularly like their brave estimates of the Exchange plan costs, when those costs have never been priced out by the insurance companies that will underwrite it. Until they are actually priced, they serve as a great source of imaginary cost savings.

So our stalwart leader has done it once again. Having raged about the necessity of bending the cost curve, he has indeed bent it. Up. And as the years go by, I think we'll find that the CMS's cost projections were wildly optimistic.

Posted by: Geoff at 05:09 AM | Comments (66)
Post contains 247 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Our insurance is paid for by my husband's employer 100% they are already talking about if this stays then that will change we just don't know how much so I really hope the Repub's do repeal this ugly bill.

Posted by: TEE866 at September 09, 2010 05:11 AM (va8HH)

2 First order of business in 2011 - gut the healthcare reform by any means necessary.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at September 09, 2010 05:12 AM (FkKjr)

3 "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan. But if you happen to lose your plan, then fuck you. I won."

Posted by: Phil at September 09, 2010 05:13 AM (0R8lo)

4

But he told us it would SAVE us money!

Guess he hadn't read the bill either...

Posted by: HH at September 09, 2010 05:14 AM (6oDXl)

5 "I do not think your cost curve is bending in the way that you think it is bending."

Posted by: Inigo Montoya at September 09, 2010 05:15 AM (oIp16)

6 Geoff, which table did you use to create your graph?

Posted by: EC at September 09, 2010 05:15 AM (mAhn3)

7 Repeal it.

Posted by: steevy at September 09, 2010 05:15 AM (Cd+Dw)

8 6 Geoff, which table did you use to create your graph?

I compared Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2.

Posted by: geoff at September 09, 2010 05:17 AM (clc+K)

9 The arc of the cost curve is long, but it bends toward social justice.

Posted by: Carin at September 09, 2010 05:17 AM (aw0SG)

10

 

Barry: Let me be clear, the cost curve acted stupidly

Posted by: TheQuietMan at September 09, 2010 05:18 AM (1Jaio)

11 Looking through their report you'll find that they have once again assumed that doctor's Medicare fees will be cut by 23% after 2010.


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

That'll happen.  Evey time the gubmint threatens to ratchet down reimbursement to physicians, they back down.  23%, many docs already aren't taking Medicare.  They expect their patients to pay up front then submit the forms themselves to get reimbursed.  How's granny going to like to find out that her portion just went up 23%? 

This is such a win for the stupid party.  Repeal and if Ogabe vetoes them, defund.

Say it with me "repeal or defund!"

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 09, 2010 05:18 AM (oQIfB)

12 Bloodletting and electroshock are still acceptable treatments for common everyday ailments in a third world nation.

Cheap too.

Posted by: Fritz at September 09, 2010 05:18 AM (GwPRU)

13 This is not the cost curve you're looking for.

Posted by: Carin at September 09, 2010 05:19 AM (aw0SG)

14
many docs already aren't taking Medicare.

Yeah - I was shopping around for my Mom, trying to replace the loser she has now. Couldn't find anybody convenient who would take new Medicare patients, so she's stuck with Dr. Lame.

Posted by: geoff at September 09, 2010 05:20 AM (clc+K)

15 I think we'll find that the CMS's cost projections were wildly optimistic. I think we'll find that the CSM's cost projections were outright complete falsehoods. By any means necessary.

Posted by: Carin at September 09, 2010 05:20 AM (aw0SG)

16 The arc of the electoral universe is long, but it bends towards a Republican majority for at least ten years.

Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at September 09, 2010 05:22 AM (IkEhE)

17 O/T:  "Illinois Senate: Kirk (R) 41%, Giannoulias (D) 37%, Jones (G) 9%"
link
wow the green party candidate has 9%....making them 50+ days before the election viable

Posted by: curious at September 09, 2010 05:22 AM (p302b)

18 My health care insurance went down by 3,000%! If you call a 21% increase a drop.

Posted by: robtr at September 09, 2010 05:22 AM (fwSHf)

19 Oh God!

Posted by: The Chicken™ at September 09, 2010 05:27 AM (UEJ97)

20

we hired a kid at our business, he's on his parents insurance, he declined our insurance....this is a quote from letter we received from blue cross...

"Please inform your employee that he cannot decline 100% employer paid medical insurance unless he submits a proof of coverage from other goup policy."

Posted by: phoenixgirl at September 09, 2010 05:27 AM (JeQ5T)

21 I heard somewhere recently that Barry Obama is to the political realm what Jimi Hendrix was to the world of rock & roll.

And now I cannot help, but wait and watch in morbid fascination as Jimi, once again, suffocates on his own vomit.

Posted by: Fritz at September 09, 2010 05:29 AM (GwPRU)

22 Everybody knew the jugeared fuck was lying out of his Kools-hole on the savings.  As pointed out in the post, this is still based on wildly unrealistic assumptions that won't come to pass so look for the line to start rising.  Maybe this will encourage squishes like cocksucker Cornyn to stop putting out dumbfuck statements about "modifying" this Obomination instead of repealing it.

Posted by: Captain Hate at September 09, 2010 05:29 AM (aIWP/)

23 data was not produced by a Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics nor was it peer reviewed solely by a team of obama economic advisers, so all results contradicting the obama healthcare vision is false and racist. 

Posted by: befuddled at September 09, 2010 05:31 AM (xJU23)

24

The graph acted stupidly.

Posted by: Barack Obama at September 09, 2010 05:32 AM (zgZzy)

25 it's not my fault........it had to be passed before we knew what was in it......

Posted by: the potus at September 09, 2010 05:32 AM (JeQ5T)

26 Well, health care costs will increase, but fewer people will be covered and quality will decrease. So we have that going for us.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 09, 2010 05:33 AM (swuwV)

27 That line will indeed go straight up and become The  Hockey Stick.

Posted by: HH at September 09, 2010 05:34 AM (6oDXl)

28 "And I particularly like their brave estimates of the Exchange plan costs,"

"brave" is so the best word....

Posted by: curious at September 09, 2010 05:35 AM (p302b)

29 None of these projections address the real source of the savings that will be realized by Obamacare: Death.

Death is very cost effective and Obamacare promotes it handily.

Posted by: Nighhawk at September 09, 2010 05:36 AM (OtQXp)

30
Related (via insty)  Why Obama is Full of Shit.

Obama: Stirring the class warfare pot & pitting American against American... with lies, since 2008.


Posted by: Lemon Kitten at September 09, 2010 05:36 AM (0fzsA)

31

What do you expect from a neoMarxist constitutional law professor?

 

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at September 09, 2010 05:37 AM (Bs34i)

32
*Smart Republicans will work for us this time, and repeal PelosiCare.

*smart republicans - *giggle*

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at September 09, 2010 05:37 AM (0fzsA)

33

So I was sitting in a meeting yesterday dealing with benefits, specifically health insurance benefits, for a group of (mostly) union represented employees.  So of course this is a group that is slightly to uber hard left.  The wonder on their faces as they had to report that "ObamaCare" is dramatically increasing their costs, well it was just priceless.  And they are calling it "ObamaCare" too. 

They reported they are using "conservative" (I'm sure they almost choked on that word) cost estimates of premium increases of a minimum of 10% per year until 2014.  Then "ObamaCare" is fully implemented and they were afraid to estimate any further.

They are very confused, they were promised unicorns and rainbows but all they are getting is a good old pocket picking. Haha.....

Posted by: Boots at September 09, 2010 05:39 AM (06JTY)

34 Insurance Expansions:

The major Affordable Care Act health insurance expansions are set to occur in 2014. They are anticipated to bring about substantial increases in health care coverage. Medicaid coverage will be expanded to all people under age sixty-five in households with incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level. State-level health insurance exchanges will be established to facilitate a new individual and small-group insurance marketplace. Largely as a result of these coverage expansions, growth in national health spending is projected to be 9.2 percent in 2014, versus growth of 6.6 percent in 2014 that was expected prior to the enactment of health reform legislation.


Oops.....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 09, 2010 05:40 AM (jBIxz)

35 O/T:  "The Mood of America"
looks like this graph....
everyday I look "the mood" is getting worse
It feels like America is PMSing 24/7 and there are no chocolate bars in the frig...

Posted by: curious at September 09, 2010 05:40 AM (p302b)

36 To say that the graph is predicated on some optimistic assumptions may be the understatement of the century.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at September 09, 2010 05:41 AM (554T5)

37 -- 38:  Er, you sure that's the mood of America?

Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at September 09, 2010 05:42 AM (IkEhE)

38 Hold on. Let me gun the engine a bit more. The axle isn't quite scraping rock.

Posted by: Chauffeur Obama at September 09, 2010 05:42 AM (swuwV)

39

@11 " ...23%, many docs already aren't taking Medicare..."

That can only get WAY worse as the Boomers all start turning 65 and that happens right now. Two guesses as to Barry's next move...? Hint: all doctors and health plans mandated to take seniors by Congressional Act. Guess what happens to everyone else's health insurance cost? anyone...? anyone...? Bueller...? Bueller!?!

The Healthcare Reform Bill acted stupidly.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at September 09, 2010 05:43 AM (adr25)

40 I guess we'll just have to remove more tonsils and limbs.

Posted by: The Doctors According To Barack at September 09, 2010 05:47 AM (swuwV)

41 The 2009–19 projections published in February 2010 serve as the baseline health spending estimates on which the impact of the Affordable Care Act is modeled. Because the purpose of this exercise is to isolate that legislation’s impact, no updates have been made to the macroeconomic and demographic assumptions that underlie the baseline projections.


So, this report still uses the -- shall we say optimistic -- forecast employment and economic growth numbers from last winter.

This taint even close to right.


Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 09, 2010 05:49 AM (jBIxz)

42

"Please inform your employee that he cannot decline 100% employer paid medical insurance unless he submits a proof of coverage from other goup policy."

He has to take their medical insurance, even though he said no, if he doesn't have proof of coverage elsewhere?

When did Pelosi get on the board of Blue Cross?

Posted by: Red Rocks Rockin' at September 09, 2010 05:51 AM (/Pw+r)

43 Moreover, supply-side impacts, such as behavioral changes on the part of providers in reaction to an influx of new prospective patients as a result of the Affordable Care Act, cannot be estimated with any certainty at this time.4 In addition, many aspects of the legislation will not be known in detail until they are implemented through the regulatory process. Finally, the trajectory of future economic recovery and growth remains uncertain.


Aside from that Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 09, 2010 05:51 AM (jBIxz)

44

They reported they are using "conservative" (I'm sure they almost choked on that word) cost estimates of premium increases of a minimum of 10% per year until 2014.  Then "ObamaCare" is fully implemented and they were afraid to estimate any further.

They are very confused, they were promised unicorns and rainbows but all they are getting is a good old pocket picking. Haha.....

That's the beautiful thing about math--it doesn't give a rat's ass about "fairness" or "social justice."

Posted by: Red Rocks Rockin' at September 09, 2010 05:54 AM (/Pw+r)

45 Health Care Bill? What Health Care bill? I don't know nuthin' about that. Besides, I was absent that day. And my dog ate the legislation I wanted, whatever it was. But I wasn't there. And Bush made me do it.

Posted by: Democrats at September 09, 2010 05:55 AM (swuwV)

46 Pray I do not alter the curve of this cost further....

Posted by: Jess at September 09, 2010 05:55 AM (xvvVt)

47

17   "Illinois Senate: Kirk (R) 41%, Giannoulias (D) 37%, Jones (G) 9%"
wow the green party candidate has 9%....making them 50+ days before the election viable

For those who live in a red state, you would be amazed at just how blue it is in Illinois.  The political weight of the state is Chicago and its seven collar counties, more than half the population of the state lives there.  The rest of the state trends more conservative, but it's alot easier to organize & gotv in a densely populated area.

The fact that Kirk is picking up momemtum now is good news, despite all the talk of his squishiness.  Giannoulias would be a disaster, the country does not need an "allegedly" mob-connected US Senator. 

The Green Party candidate, Jones, is an African American journalist.  Lefties who want to vote Dem might be going to Jones simply because the mob influence on Giannoulias is worrisome.  Vote Jones and you keep your lefties/commie/dem cred intact.

Posted by: Boots at September 09, 2010 05:58 AM (06JTY)

48 Based on these assumptions, we estimate that exchange-related administrative costs would add a cumulative $37.7 billion, or roughly 0.2 percent, to national health spending through 2019.


Hey, it's just money.  Don't sweat it....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 09, 2010 06:01 AM (jBIxz)

49 In addition, legislative changes to the 2010 Medicare physician fee schedule updates through November 2010 also affected spending growth. In our February 2010 projection, Medicare physician payments were scheduled to decline by 21.3 percent on January 1, 2010. After subsequent legislative changes, Medicare physician payments updates of 0.0 percent were put in place for January–May 2010, and then a 2.2 percent increase was enacted for June–November 2010. In December 2010, however, the average physician payment per service is now scheduled to decrease by 23 percent from the November 2010 level, absent further legislative intervention.[15]

[15] In practice, it is highly unlikely that Congress will allow this cut to become effective, as other such reductions have been avoided since 2002.


Ah footnotes, is there anything you can't do?

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 09, 2010 06:05 AM (jBIxz)

50
"He has to take their medical insurance, even though he said no, if he doesn't have proof of coverage elsewhere? When did Pelosi get on the board of Blue Cross?"

No insurer in his right mind is going to let a young, healthy rate-payer slip through their fingers, if they can help it. Profits, baby, profits.

Welcome to the wonderful world of Obamacare, where we're all getting the Blues, whether we want 'em or not!

Posted by: Brown Line at September 09, 2010 06:05 AM (VrNoa)

51 This is really not the problem it seems to be. In the lame duck session Congress will pass a bill requiring all citizens to buy $1000 in treasury notes every year or face jail time.

Posted by: Allthe economists that agree at September 09, 2010 06:09 AM (FIc0M)

52 There will also be a bill requiring all citizens to donate money to the HuffPo, and everyone will have to buy shares in a real estate deal Hillary and Bill are putting together.

Posted by: the commerce clause at September 09, 2010 06:16 AM (FIc0M)

53 Isn't the core problem in our tax and health care system the same - both systems separate or disguise the cost of the benefit from the consumer - thus denying the macro-system of the critical price-feedback information (Adam Smith's Invisible Hand) needed to drive decisions. The solution set becomes simple: end withholding and switch the tax breaks for the procurement of health care from corporations to individuals, then stand back ...

Posted by: Jean at September 09, 2010 06:38 AM (g8OOc)

54 If Mr. Soertoro keeps vetoing repeal efforts, then it's time to start using the Dems playbook against them.

Stuff repeal amendments into EVERYTHING - school lunch programs, subsidized housing for the poor and Veteran's, transportation and energy bills, the works - just as Dems do to get their pork barrel projects through.

EVERYTHING.

Then when he vetoes, ask the cameras plaintively why the President hates feeding the kids/housing the poor & disabled/puppies/etc.

Hold them to their own standards.

Posted by: Drumwaster at September 09, 2010 06:40 AM (dWFSK)

55 "And as the years go by, I think we'll find that the CMS's cost projections were wildly optimistic."

No - they weren't "wildly optimistic"; they were lies.  Meaning CMS knew they were baloney, but put -em out anyway, knowing they were garbage.

Posted by: Roger at September 09, 2010 06:47 AM (tAwhy)

56 Posted by: Drumwaster at September 09, 2010 10:40 AM (dWFSK)

Where the rubber really meets the road on how much GOP guts there really are, is refusing to fund Lord Zero.  He'll gladly keep veto-ing bills, but he can't function without money.  But it will take guts to make it work.  Gingrich couldn't do it to Clinton (but - as he pointed out - we've got Barry now).

Posted by: Roger at September 09, 2010 06:50 AM (tAwhy)

57 Look on the bright side, you won't get have to pay for those expensive life-extending treatments in old age anymore.

Posted by: Donald Berwick at September 09, 2010 06:50 AM (w9BEi)

58 None of these projections address the real source of the savings that will be realized by Obamacare: Death.

Death is very cost effective and Obamacare promotes it handily.

Posted by: Nighhawk at September 09, 2010 09:36 AM (OtQXp)

Stop fear-mongering!

Posted by: Alan "they want you to die quickly" Grayson at September 09, 2010 06:53 AM (w9BEi)

59 I hope all you youngsters are saving these predicted graphs so you can compare the actual to the predicted 10 years down the line.

Provided we still have a country 10 years down the line.

Posted by: Vic at September 09, 2010 06:57 AM (/jbAw)

60

The teleprompter is already loaded for next year, morons.

'Greedy insurance companies are raising their rates by 10, 15, and even 20%! The only solution is free Government run health-care, backed by the full faith and credit of these United States.'

Posted by: Schwalbe at September 09, 2010 07:30 AM (UU0OF)

61

Repeal is a non-starter as long as Obama sits in the Big Chair, but defunding much of ObamaCare's provisions would be a great start. Many state governors (including our own Tim Pawlenty) are already doing that. But I do agree that repeal must be our ultimate goal; otherwise, we're going to start hearing even GOP'ers start talking about "fixing" the law rather than just repealing it. This has been the Democrat strategy all along.

 

Posted by: Monty at September 09, 2010 08:13 AM (/0a60)

62 Couldn't find anybody convenient who would take new Medicare patients, so she's stuck with Dr. Lame.

Posted by: geoff at September 09, 2010 09:20 AM (clc+K)

If you don't like the doctor you have, you'll be stuck with the quack that you have

Posted by: phreshone at September 09, 2010 08:26 AM (1AnxB)

63 Well, everyone knows that up is the new down and Black is the new right.

Posted by: runningrn at September 09, 2010 08:40 AM (8GYOu)

64

Well, everyone knows that up is the new down and Black is the new right White?

 

Posted by: Sir Isaac Puddin'-Eatin' Newton at September 09, 2010 09:23 AM (pfMMA)

65 Ginza buying area is pictured in middle Tokyo,Jordan retro home to some with one of the most expensive commercial genuine estate even although in the country. Japan's financial bape shoes system expanded additional than in the beginning believed even although in the next quarter, federal government information showed Friday, as domestic firms ramped up money expenditure.Soccer jerseys on 17878996852004

Posted by: chi straightener at September 09, 2010 11:57 PM (S+GtL)

Posted by: vdwe at November 11, 2010 03:28 AM (shiOw)

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