February 03, 2010
— Purple Avenger Here we go again with the bogus models.
...The model added about 184,000 jobs to the payroll total last quarter compared with a 135,000 increase in the same period in 2008, before the financial crisis deepened with the collapse of Lehman Brothers Inc.The government is adding fictitious jobs attributed to non-existent companies. M.O.D.E.L.S. -- is there nothing they can't do?“This birth/death model is still assuming that we are getting new jobs from new-business creations,” David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto, said in an interview...
...“These additions are coming somewhere from ‘Alice in Wonderland,’” he said...
H/T commenter curious
The Black Plague [ace]: This animation showing unemployment growth by county features 10+% rates indicated by black. (No, not racist, black as in "black hole of joblessness."
Thanks to JimS.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at
09:43 AM
| Comments (114)
Post contains 159 words, total size 1 kb.
Yeah yeah OT but this shit is important.
Folks we finally have a GOP member who has nuts.
Giddie ep!
Posted by: MelodicMetal in MA at February 03, 2010 09:45 AM (x4S2a)
What?!? You don't believe that? Why do you hate science?
Posted by: Lancet at February 03, 2010 09:46 AM (7BU4a)
As a part-time climate scientist and an even more part-time government employment statistician, I can assure you that you can have absolute confidence in the numbers because, like climate data, they have been
PEER REVIEWED!!!
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at February 03, 2010 09:46 AM (r1h5M)
Posted by: Joanna at February 03, 2010 09:46 AM (7+WuG)
Call me.
Posted by: Phil Jones at February 03, 2010 09:47 AM (7BU4a)
As much as fudging the numbers bothers me, it won't help Obama.
You can fool half the people all of the time, you can fool all of the people half the time. But you can't fool all of the people all the time.
Posted by: This is rtogkrlfvc at February 03, 2010 09:47 AM (z37MR)
I've always been a fan of stories. Like that, uh, sci fi, uh thing. Uh, the new one. It was awesome. Uh, with the Smurfs. Yeah. What's wrong with jobs in smurf movies?
Posted by: Joe Biden at February 03, 2010 09:49 AM (7BU4a)
As much as fudging the numbers bothers me, it won't help Obama.
You can fool half the people all of the time, you can fool all of the people half the time. But you can't fool all of the people all the time.
Posted by: This is rtogkrlfvc at February 03, 2010 01:47 PM (z37MR)
I'm pretty certain that you can fool a specific 52.7% of the people all of the time.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at February 03, 2010 09:49 AM (r1h5M)
I'm pretty certain that you can fool a specific 52.7% of the people all of the time.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at February 03, 2010 01:49 PM (r1h5M)
Dude, we had to send a message to the Republicans running congress in 2008 to stop spending money we didn't have.
Posted by: Some Independent Voter at February 03, 2010 09:50 AM (7BU4a)
Are they mostly in those non-existent zip codes that got all the *stimulus* money?
Posted by: Peaches at February 03, 2010 09:51 AM (9Wv2j)
I'm pretty certain that you can fool a specific 52.7% of the people all of the time.
Nope, not even in Massafuckingchusetts!
Posted by: This is rtogkrlfvc at February 03, 2010 09:52 AM (z37MR)
Posted by: Amish Jack at February 03, 2010 01:50 PM (IhHdM)
That's a crock you wingnut.
We get a guy to draw a hockey stick, and then we make the numbers fit. Actually, yeah, I think that is what Obama's doing now too.
Posted by: Michael Mann at February 03, 2010 09:52 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: Jean at February 03, 2010 09:52 AM (CPefM)
Posted by: Jean at February 03, 2010 01:52 PM (CPefM)
Just because I'm dead doesn't mean my vote shouldn't count
Posted by: Some O Voter at February 03, 2010 09:53 AM (7BU4a)
Probably a dart board with numbers on it.
We add in the numbers we want after the dart has landed.
Posted by: Guvmint Math Guy, Statisticals Dept. at February 03, 2010 09:54 AM (LEynS)
No surprise they are fudging the numbers. Look at December jobs, which showed 82K job losses and unchanged unemployment rate. Then look at the regional/state summary where 43 states had an increase in the unemployment rate and only 4 had a decrease. And that summary shows 380K+ job losses.
Posted by: Sacred Cow at February 03, 2010 09:55 AM (R18rO)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 03, 2010 09:55 AM (PcRSS)
Posted by: Jean at February 03, 2010 09:55 AM (CPefM)
Another adm report, another lie. We may as well just turn off ALL the news programs when all they do is report what some government official from this adm reports.
It is a pure waste of time to even listen, especially when none of the news readers ever question it.
Posted by: Vic at February 03, 2010 09:57 AM (QrA9E)
Companies “really have diminished their willingness to hire labor for any production level,” Silvia said. “It’s really a strategic change,” where companies will be keeping fewer employees for any particular level of sales, in good times and bad, he said.
Why in the world would businesses not hire while changing "strategy"? You'd think they were unsure of the future business environment or anticipating heavy regulatory/tax burdens or something. This must be what a jobless recovery looks like.
Posted by: mark c at February 03, 2010 09:57 AM (SBIko)
Posted by: MDr VB1.0 CS1st at February 03, 2010 09:57 AM (ucq49)
Tax receipts have fallen off a cliff...can't go with that.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 03, 2010 09:58 AM (PcRSS)
I'm am using government and climate modeling methods to figure my taxes this year.
Uncle Sam owes me $1.3 trillion, which fortunately for them, will not add to the deficit.
It was the least I could do.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at February 03, 2010 09:58 AM (r1h5M)
Posted by: FUBAR at February 03, 2010 09:59 AM (1fanL)
Posted by: Fritz at February 03, 2010 09:59 AM (GwPRU)
Paging Capt Renault again.............
It's not just 'bogus numbers': EVERYTHING about this admin is either bogus or criminal; lotsa times, it's both. Call it the OBogus administration. BarBogus Hussein Obogus. ( this is too easy )
Even in his worst lowest darkest days, even Nixon wasn't this ruthlessly dishonest
Even in his dumbest goofiest days, even Carter wasn't this incompetent and stupid
Exit question: How long can a ( apparently former ) superpower survive this?
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at February 03, 2010 09:59 AM (JrRME)
...“These additions are coming somewhere from ‘Alice in Wonderland,’” he said...
So that's what they're calling the White House now?
Posted by: harleycowboy at February 03, 2010 10:01 AM (JKGfQ)
Posted by: Oscar Goodman at February 03, 2010 10:02 AM (0FiCa)
Until we run out of forests for paper and the ink mines run dry.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 03, 2010 10:02 AM (PcRSS)
Posted by: Abrahan Lincoln at February 03, 2010 10:02 AM (WGbtD)
Can someone explain to me why no one in the media has asked the following question: What is a clean-energy economy?
Do we now have a dirty energy economy?
I suspect it means Obama wants to put an end to carbon-based energy, particularly oil-based fuel. But I want to hear exactly what it means from the Obama admin.
Posted by: This is rtogkrlfvc at February 03, 2010 10:02 AM (z37MR)
Posted by: Holger at February 03, 2010 10:03 AM (8NGHm)
Another real question is
why in the hell do we need a conputer model to figure employment????
Answer: because like AGW fraud you need a way to juggle the numbers and hide the juggling.
Posted by: Vic at February 03, 2010 10:04 AM (QrA9E)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 03, 2010 10:04 AM (PcRSS)
You'd think they were unsure of the future business environment or anticipating heavy regulatory/tax burdens or something.
Wonder where they even got that sort of an idea?
Posted by: harleycowboy at February 03, 2010 10:04 AM (JKGfQ)
Posted by: George Orwell at February 03, 2010 10:04 AM (AZGON)
God DAMN it! Rush just noted that Scott Brown is demanding to be seated, and said (slight paraphrase) "Mark Kirk is still voting, and in a real sense that is not legal."
"In a real sense"?! NOT LEGAL?!?!?
God damn it, then everyone call the damn Senate Rules Committee and urge Scott Brown or someone to GO TO WAR and get those votes overturned! wtf?
202.224.6352 Main Number
202.224.1912 Administrative Fax
202.224.5400 Democratic Fax
202.224.3036 Republican Fax
Posted by: arhooley at February 03, 2010 10:05 AM (ElI+6)
Posted by: Steven at February 03, 2010 01:54 PM (XkotJ)"
"Last Updated: February 3, 2010 06:06 EST"
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 10:05 AM (p302b)
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 10:06 AM (p302b)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at February 03, 2010 10:07 AM (0q2P7)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at February 03, 2010 10:07 AM (mR7mk)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 03, 2010 10:07 AM (0FiCa)
The gubamint cannot create real jobs!!!! Geez! They can only do stuff to destroy jobs. I posted this in the Headlines column, but I was late and it's really good, and it's very pertinent to this topic:
Excellent op-ed in the WSJ by Matthew J. Slaughter "How to Destroy American Jobs." It addresses a set of proposals in Obama's Budget (Table S-8, page 161) "Reform U.S. International Tax System" that if enacted will increase taxes on U.S. multinational firms another $122.2 billion.
"Obama's proposals for increasing the tax burde n on U.S.-based multinationals would harm our most dynamic companies...The tax increases would not create American jobs, they would destroy them. Academic research including most recently by Harvard's Mihir Desai and Fritz Foley and University of Michigan's James Hines, has conssistently found that expansion abroad by U.S. multinationals tend to support jobs based in the U.S. More investment and employment abroad is strongly associated with more investment and employment in American parent companies."
Here's the link to the whole article:
http://tinyurl.com/yh37e25
Posted by: runningrn at February 03, 2010 10:08 AM (CfmlF)
Posted by: Barack Hadley Obama at February 03, 2010 10:08 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 10:09 AM (p302b)
Did you call? How's about a "walk-off"!
Posted by: Barack Zoolander Obama, Male Model at February 03, 2010 10:09 AM (CfmlF)
Posted by: George Orwell at February 03, 2010 10:10 AM (AZGON)
DRUDGE IS CHARGING MANIPULATION: “The U.S. may lose 824,000 jobs when the government releases its annual revision to employment data on Feb. 5, showing the labor market was in worse shape during the recession than known at the time.” It does seem like the initial numbers are always rosier — and louder — than the quiet revisions that appear later.
Posted by: harleycowboy at February 03, 2010 10:11 AM (JKGfQ)
My idea: We assemble and descend upon our nation's capitol, millions of us, all holding a sign: STOP MEDDLING--YOU'RE MAKING THINGS WORSE
We have lame-brained political hacks --from both parties -- sticking their noses into every single aspect of our lives, businesses, private lives, and health.
Posted by: This is rtogkrlfvc at February 03, 2010 10:11 AM (z37MR)
Posted by: Barack Zoolander Obama, Male Model at February 03, 2010 10:11 AM (CfmlF)
No, that's the Obama recovery plan -- Plan 9 From Outer Space.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 03, 2010 10:13 AM (PcRSS)
Posted by: arhooley at February 03, 2010 10:14 AM (ElI+6)
...pitchforks, buckets of hot tar, and bags of feathers.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 03, 2010 10:14 AM (PcRSS)
OT: Proof that Obama is surrounded by imbeciles-
Transportation Secretary Said He Made A 'Misstatement' After Telling Toyota Owners To 'Stop Driving'Posted by: conscious, but incoherent at February 03, 2010 10:15 AM (Vu6sl)
Posted by: George Orwell at February 03, 2010 10:16 AM (AZGON)
M.O.D.E.L.S. -- is there nothing they can't do?
So, we're talking about people like Kate Moss and Gisele Bündchen?
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at February 03, 2010 10:17 AM (1hM1d)
Posted by: George Orwell at February 03, 2010 10:18 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 03, 2010 10:19 AM (0FiCa)
Dim bulb Bob Herbert was probably beating the minimum wage increase drums previously too.
Historical analysis of minimum wage increases show a VERY distinct pattern of spiking unemployment immediately after they're enacted. Young black males are always the hardest hit demographic in those minimum wage boost unemployment spikes.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 03, 2010 10:19 AM (PcRSS)
Uh, we have that in Michigan. It's called something inane like the Michigan Film Initiative, in which we pay companies to film here, and give people low paying or non paying jobs for three weeks at a time.
It's a great success! Everyone who wants to work for free has a job here!
/it's so bad, in a local tv poll 68% of Detroit area resident polled said they do not even want the Idiot Governor to do a state of the State address.
Posted by: shibumi at February 03, 2010 10:19 AM (OKZrE)
Yes Ray, I hear and I obey, it's time for me to stop driving my Toyota and start driving a brand new OBAMA MOTORS vehicle.
No bias, right?
Posted by: gus at February 03, 2010 10:21 AM (Vqruj)
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at February 03, 2010 10:21 AM (r1h5M)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 03, 2010 10:23 AM (PcRSS)
Posted by: billhedrick at February 03, 2010 10:23 AM (gTZyc)
like you see them doing in 3rd world countries? lol
Posted by: Berserker at February 03, 2010 10:24 AM (gWHrG)
Stopping driving the Toyota is not a problem.
Like pickups, everyone can buy a spare car... or cake... anyone can eat cake.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at February 03, 2010 10:24 AM (r1h5M)
and this photo essay is very sad but since kids are graduating from college every semester and an entire law school class is being called the "lost class" as regards being hired at all, this could be us.
The second article has gone from prominently featured on the front page to "thank God I posted this in the Headlines thread so I have the link"
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 10:25 AM (p302b)
Apparently their designated modeling computer is a VIC-20.
No way, any program labeled as a VIC would have been much more accurate.
They use modelers from Elbonia.
Posted by: Vic at February 03, 2010 10:26 AM (QrA9E)
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 10:28 AM (p302b)
They aren't made by union workers. If anything, UAW pushed him to say it.
Posted by: leoncaruthers at February 03, 2010 10:32 AM (PH0UW)
Dim bulb Bob Herbert was probably beating the minimum wage increase drums previously too.
Ha, he was beating the stimulus increase. Shovel more money at the slums so those gang-bangers will drop their shotguns and pick up caulking guns, to paraphrase a sadly fallen idol.
But at least he's looking at the real unemployment numbers, not the ones from the Ford Modeling Agency.
Posted by: arhooley at February 03, 2010 10:32 AM (ElI+6)
Strange how the outlines of the states are so visible in black, especially in the south.
Stateline counties seem to be a bad place to be in a Repression.
Posted by: eleven at February 03, 2010 10:33 AM (7DB+a)
Context matters.
Posted by: Additional Blond Agent at February 03, 2010 10:34 AM (SHKl9)
The Black Plague [ace]: This animation showing unemployment growth by county features 10+% rates indicated by black. (No, not racist, black as in "black hole of joblessness."
I think the color should be changed to red--communist color, plus the blood red hemorrhaging of jobs!
Posted by: runningrn at February 03, 2010 10:34 AM (CfmlF)
There is an uncomfortably large segment (being charitable, I'll say less than 100%) of soft scientists dependent on folks not realizing that evidence from a model are not the same as empirical evidence. These are the same folks that think using big words makes them smart. In the same way, using a sufficiently convoluted model that is next to impossible to follow makes it accurate.
It's disturbing to me, because I'm an advocate for the scientific method, and these jackasses are going to convince the public that science is useless.
So stand up for science! Get up right now, and shout "Garbage in, garbage out!" And then blame the person sitting near you for it.
Posted by: Cautiously Pessimistic at February 03, 2010 10:35 AM (pZEar)
Posted by: Che Pizza at February 03, 2010 10:36 AM (SPSOE)
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 10:37 AM (p302b)
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at February 03, 2010 10:37 AM (IIHY9)
Dude that looks like someone dying from gangrene.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at February 03, 2010 10:38 AM (0q2P7)
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 10:38 AM (p302b)
Posted by: jjshaka at February 03, 2010 10:43 AM (VGJmL)
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at February 03, 2010 02:37 PM (IIHY9)
After our experience with the summer pre-census assholes, they'll be lucky to get a warning shot if they knock on my door again. Being in gubbmin' means you can be as prickish as you like, apparently. And for Huffington fans out there, no, I do not mean I'm going to literally shoot a census worker if they knock on my door. Idiots.
Posted by: Cautiously Pessimistic at February 03, 2010 10:46 AM (pZEar)
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 10:50 AM (p302b)
Don't forget forced unionization. Why hire someone it'll be difficult to impossible to fire down the road?
There is a nominee for the commerce dept who feels that people should NOT have the right to reject a monopoly union. "People don't have the right not to have a congressman" was his justification. Oh, and yes he's part of the SEIU/ACORN crime syndicate.
Posted by: kbdabear at February 03, 2010 10:54 AM (sYxEE)
Posted by: Roux at February 03, 2010 10:56 AM (c/0dB)
Not impressed. I actually owned an old circular green screen Heath-Kit O-Scope when I was a kid that my dad had built and grown out of. I actually had to trouble shoot it and replace one of the tubes (Valves) once.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at February 03, 2010 10:59 AM (0q2P7)
If you own a GM built by a proud to be union American worker and you have a problem, do what you always do and call a tow truck.
Posted by: Ray LaHood at February 03, 2010 11:01 AM (sYxEE)
95 Rush now discussing this: "The IRS Is Looking For 60 12-Gauge Pump Actions Guns To Arm Its Investigators"
Hell, if they'll increase my refund another $500, they can have mine--it's not like I don't have other lead delivery devices in stock.
Posted by: David Axelrod's Combover at February 03, 2010 11:07 AM (/Pw+r)
Didn't michelle bachman refuse to give them anything but her name and address? And didn't she say that you are well within your rights to only give them that information?
Not true, the SCOTUS long ago ruled that they can ask anything they want and write any law or punishment they want based on the stupid wording in the consitution.
The actual
The act of counting or telling a number, by naming each particular.
1. An account of a number of things, in which mention is made of every particular article.
2. In rhetoric, a part of a peroration, in which the orator recapitulates the principal points or heads of the discourse or argument.', STICKY, CAPTION, 'Definition', MOUSEOFF);" onmouseout="return nd();" href="javascript:void(0);">Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct
Posted by: Vic at February 03, 2010 11:07 AM (QrA9E)
Posted by: Vic at February 03, 2010 11:08 AM (QrA9E)
My Heathkit laughs in your general direction.
LOL, those old Heathkit stereo amps are worth some money now.
Posted by: Vic at February 03, 2010 11:10 AM (QrA9E)
Posted by: harleycowboy at February 03, 2010 11:20 AM (JKGfQ)
"Apparently their designated modeling computer is a VIC-20."
I would have guessed a Commodore 64
Altair
Posted by: Packy East at February 03, 2010 11:45 AM (CKW49)
The government is adding fictitious jobs attributed to non-existent companies. M.O.D.E.L.S. -- is there nothing they can't do?
That would be why they sent all that Stimulus money to non-existent zip codes then.
Posted by: Speller at February 03, 2010 11:45 AM (o0R2E)
Posted by: curious at February 03, 2010 01:30 PM (p302b)
Bloomberg: Govt unemployment figures may be vastly understated due to modeling flaws
I'm shocked ...., shocked, I tell you. Who could have seen that coming?
Posted by: Guest at February 03, 2010 04:01 PM (ITzbJ)
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Posted by: America at February 03, 2010 09:45 AM (7BU4a)