March 12, 2010
— Purple Avenger Very scary chart at ClusterStock.
...their Daily Growth Index just crashed, which means that U.S. GDP growth could be about to slump as well...
H/T TH
Posted by: Purple Avenger at
12:17 PM
| Comments (164)
Post contains 101 words, total size 1 kb.
Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at March 12, 2010 12:20 PM (ERJIu)
Somhow, I don't think I'm going to enjoy taunting the libs with "I told you so", since I'll be living in a shotgun shack while I'm saying it.
Posted by: Luca Brasi at March 12, 2010 12:20 PM (YmPwQ)
Posted by: Mons Pubis at March 12, 2010 12:21 PM (o5vMm)
Posted by: Supreme Intergalactic Leader and Law Lord Obama The Mighty Wielding His Teleprompter Of Justice at March 12, 2010 12:21 PM (ERJIu)
Posted by: Joanna at March 12, 2010 12:21 PM (7+WuG)
Posted by: logprof at March 12, 2010 12:22 PM (rI0GJ)
Posted by: DelD at March 12, 2010 04:21 PM (eWtdM)
Listen pal. You're a fucking amateur at this. Don't make a maniac out me.
Posted by: The Chicken at March 12, 2010 12:23 PM (5I0Yr)
Posted by: Paul Krugman at March 12, 2010 12:23 PM (ERJIu)
He already walks around with a backpack full of magic markers. I'm just saying...
Posted by: Purple Avenger at March 12, 2010 12:24 PM (Lp//O)
Posted by: moi at March 12, 2010 12:25 PM (dHHQy)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 12, 2010 12:26 PM (1Jaio)
Posted by: RobD at March 12, 2010 12:26 PM (sV3Dv)
Posted by: Joanna at March 12, 2010 12:26 PM (7+WuG)
Posted by: B35tomothergaston at March 12, 2010 12:27 PM (6u+br)
Posted by: Nancy McBotox at March 12, 2010 12:27 PM (tf9Ne)
I would hope the American people will not let the collapse of the economy and the bankrupting of all of their hopes and dreams move them to the petty political satisfaction of voting us and our friends out of office. We're here to help!
Besides, we just made that whole voting thing unneccessary. So don't bother! Toodles!
Posted by: Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid (Burglar Masks Optional but Appropriate at March 12, 2010 12:27 PM (ERJIu)
Posted by: maddogg at March 12, 2010 12:28 PM (OlN4e)
Who cares about this? The stock market in Bhutan is going gangbusters!
I don;t know what you wingnuts have been up to, but I parlayed $20 into a small fortune while you were all bitching about Obama!
Posted by: poot at March 12, 2010 12:28 PM (rI0GJ)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at March 12, 2010 12:29 PM (I1/U/)
Whooo! Watch me on the slide!
There, wasn't that fun?
Posted by: the new york times at March 12, 2010 12:29 PM (KdA1d)
Posted by: Jean at March 12, 2010 12:29 PM (tJF9l)
Posted by: Vic at March 12, 2010 12:29 PM (QrA9E)
34 moi - so your going to move your money from the unstable market to the shaky banks or the worthless bonds?
More like the comfy mattress.
Posted by: Joanna at March 12, 2010 12:30 PM (7+WuG)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at March 12, 2010 12:30 PM (Lp//O)
dude these bums are gonna collapse the economy by the end of march
Posted by: B35tomothergaston at March 12, 2010 12:30 PM (6u+br)
Posted by: Mumbles the Magic Unicorn at March 12, 2010 12:31 PM (ERJIu)
Posted by: The Humongous at March 12, 2010 12:31 PM (OlN4e)
Posted by: tommylotto at March 12, 2010 12:32 PM (oHIHU)
Posted by: Cicero at March 12, 2010 12:32 PM (QKKT0)
Spoke with an old high school friend yesterday. Progressive, natch. So she's explaining to me how Bend, OR is pretty conservative because there are a lot of rich people there who want to hang on to their money.
So that's the definition of conservative?
Posted by: Y-not at March 12, 2010 12:32 PM (Kn9r7)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at March 12, 2010 12:32 PM (Lp//O)
We have a winner!
/putting my retirement money in canned tuna and ammo, just to be safe
Posted by: shibumi at March 12, 2010 12:32 PM (OKZrE)
"When things look bad, and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb mad dog mean. Cause if you lose your head and you give up, then you neither live nor win, that's just the way it is." Clint Eastwood as the Outlaw Josey Wales
Posted by: RobD at March 12, 2010 12:33 PM (sV3Dv)
Posted by: Barack 'Here to Save The Day' Obama at March 12, 2010 12:33 PM (ERJIu)
Max Rockatansky had a bum knee, too.
Posted by: MikeO at March 12, 2010 12:33 PM (lBmZl)
Good thing I've made peace with death. It's so much easier this way.
Posted by: Antimatter at March 12, 2010 12:34 PM (gbCNS)
"When things look bad, and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb mad dog mean. Cause if you lose your head and you give up, then you neither live nor win, that's just the way it is." Clint Eastwood as the Outlaw Josey Wales
Taken from the book "Gone to Texas". New remake taken from the book "Gone to taxes".
Posted by: The Humongous at March 12, 2010 12:35 PM (OlN4e)
Posted by: Lincoln Adams at March 12, 2010 12:36 PM (gLNLT)
Posted by: B35tomothergaston at March 12, 2010 12:37 PM (6u+br)
Not sure if it will be inflation or deflation, but definitely doom. D O O M!
Gee, I guess that Hope and Change really means Despair and Poverty.
Thanks 52%
Posted by: shibumi at March 12, 2010 12:39 PM (OKZrE)
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEE eeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeee eeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeee ........... ........... .......... ....... >|< splat
Posted by: The Dollar at March 12, 2010 12:40 PM (UaxA0)
Posted by: Joy to the whirled at March 12, 2010 12:41 PM (EZCyM)
Posted by: Jean at March 12, 2010 12:41 PM (pIKTP)
Good thing I've made peace with death. It's so much easier this way.
I'm not worried about dying. It's the price for living and you only have to do it once. I had a lot of fun in this life and if it comes down to going...well...them's the breaks. I just hope I can take a fuckload of libtards with me.
Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at March 12, 2010 12:41 PM (P33XN)
Hi,
I think that this is a sign that we need to pass comprehensive health care legislation soon because we have this big problem of not enough GDP. My huge pimply ass and hairy catcher's-mitt-sized private area are telling me this. it's imperative we pass it now.
We need more GDPs.
Thank you.
Posted by: Sen. Debbie Stabenow at March 12, 2010 12:42 PM (tcSZb)
Posted by: Mord at March 12, 2010 12:43 PM (tTj19)
Posted by: Captain of the Unsinkable Ship Barack Obama at March 12, 2010 12:45 PM (wtCmG)
ECRI Leading Index also shows a deterioration for later this year, and Northern Trust's economist has been talking "double dip" for months.
No surprise that your chart indicates same.
Posted by: dad29 at March 12, 2010 12:46 PM (aHNYw)
Yep, he wore that knee-brace. All you need know is some mangy mutt that follows you around.
Posted by: ol_dirty_/b+tard at March 12, 2010 12:47 PM (x065h)
At the end of The Road Warrior so did he.
Pic
Posted by: Iskandar at March 12, 2010 12:47 PM (/o58C)
I live in one of the better off counties in the nation. Number 24 out of 25 on some recent list. But when I looked at the median income of the latest list, I had to look twice. It's down almost 25k from the last time I looked.
Ouch, 35K down in one month. Anybody who owns a home and is having a shaky Friday already shouldn't check their home value on Zillow.com today.
Posted by: Al Sharpton at March 12, 2010 12:47 PM (ERJIu)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 12, 2010 12:47 PM (PQY7w)
Posted by: Luca Brasi at March 12, 2010 12:48 PM (YmPwQ)
Anyone here know how to extend that graph backward in time a little further?
Graphs are notoriously deceiving - they tell the story the were meant to tell, and not necessarily the full truth. Reference the AGW nuts with their data and "hide the decline" and all.
I would like to see if this theory of the Daily Growth Index (whatever that is) being a leading indicator of GDP. I'm not saying it is or isn't. I just want more facts.
Can anyone here help with that?
Posted by: connertown at March 12, 2010 12:48 PM (Ub41u)
I see skyrockets when me and Bill Ayers visit Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds
Posted by: Rep. Pete Stark raving mad at March 12, 2010 12:48 PM (sYxEE)
Posted by: Jean at March 12, 2010 12:49 PM (/8Gs3)
Posted by: Dale in San Antonio(Not Dave!) at March 12, 2010 12:49 PM (sXEVG)
Posted by: B35tomothergaston at March 12, 2010 12:51 PM (6u+br)
Posted by: Jean at March 12, 2010 12:52 PM (/8Gs3)
This baby is about to take off! Blue skies forever!
Posted by: Larry Sunshine Kudlow at March 12, 2010 12:55 PM (sYxEE)
You know who's fault this is.
And who this helps.
DimTards will never care., what it takes to get their commie govt. Destroying the USA - no biggie.
Posted by: Coming for a long time at March 12, 2010 12:58 PM (ucq49)
Looking at the chart, I'd say that GDP drops from a supposed 6% to 2 or 3% maybe more later. GDP is tweaked by Gov and measures some things that some argue it shouldn't. Also it doesn't take into account things it should.
I agree with end of post; maybe the GDP shows up weak. Now that may cause further declines plus gasoline is doing it's pre-summer spike thing but demand isn't strong and this spike has been caused by OPEC claiming demand that ain't there .... yet. The speculators may decide to get out now as the market is soft and if the price goes down, then the economic factors in the U.S. won't look quite so bad. (but they will be because weak demand of fuel means weakening economy and around and around we go)
Posted by: jakee308 at March 12, 2010 12:58 PM (WY0Sv)
I will post the GIF animation shortly. Gotcha, teabaggers!
Posted by: Cahrsel Jhonsno at March 12, 2010 12:59 PM (sYxEE)
Posted by: chaos, and cannibalism, but mostly chaos at March 12, 2010 05:01 PM (PD1tk)
About that: Work on your pork recipes. I have been.
Posted by: MikeO at March 12, 2010 01:02 PM (lBmZl)
How long before Toyota and some other carmakers team up and pull advertisers from the DemSM? I have a feeling the stories would go away in a hurry, so would the trip and fall lawyers.
Posted by: kbdabear at March 12, 2010 01:04 PM (sYxEE)
ehhhh ... I don't know if this is the indicator, but the fall is coming.
The most scary thing I'm seeing is that commercial real estate delinquencies are going parabolic.
Once that hits and the next wave of alt-A residential loans go south, look out.
Posted by: Warden at March 12, 2010 01:04 PM (QoR4a)
Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at March 12, 2010 01:07 PM (P33XN)
Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at March 12, 2010 01:10 PM (P33XN)
when did skynet become self-aware?
um your gonna have to get back to me i'am trying to fuck the chicken
Love Harry Reid
Posted by: B35tomothergaston at March 12, 2010 01:11 PM (6u+br)
It appears they only started getting the info in 2006. But it looks pretty darn useful to me. I've been telling my family and friends to be out of the market before June 1 for a while now. I truly hope they are mad at me for being wrong.
it isn't an exact match. Seems that GDP kinda follows it but not as drastically (if the trend goes down abruptly like in 2008, GDP takes the plunge in steps).
GDP is given in monthly and quarterly terms, therefore "steps". The daily growth line is um...daily...therefore a smooth line.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at March 12, 2010 01:17 PM (cpuvG)
Posted by: George Orwell at March 12, 2010 01:23 PM (AZGON)
Thanks for the weekend pick-me-up PA.
Posted by: mpfs at March 12, 2010 01:25 PM (iYbLN)
Posted by: mpfs at March 12, 2010 01:27 PM (iYbLN)
for the sake of everyone living with 500 miles of my please hold the economic armageddon until after june 13th...if my to be wife doesn't get to have her wedding she will raise the dead and destroy everything in her path.
i'm glad i'm debt free besides my mortage on my soon to be even more worthless home. that was a great investment pffft.
Posted by: evil libertarian at March 12, 2010 01:29 PM (BGJM2)
Posted by: jjshaka at March 12, 2010 01:39 PM (QP56b)
Posted by: Twinks at March 12, 2010 01:43 PM (wRPBa)
Regardless of what any indicator is saying if:
1) Most economists project a 3% GDP for this year (I'm going with the Federal fiscal year October to September)
and
2) We've already had 2.2% growth and 5.9% growth the past two quarters
then
3) we are projected to have only 0.5% growth for the remainder of the year.
Posted by: Ken at March 12, 2010 01:44 PM (4JpPD)
that was a great investment pffft.
People need to change their thinking on this.
A home isn't an investment; it's a liability--one that can bring you great joy, of course.
Think of it as the price you pay for comfort, privacy and great memories.
It's also a good hedge against inflation. That's about it, as far as the investment side.
Posted by: Warden at March 12, 2010 01:45 PM (QoR4a)
Posted by: mydemonsdriveon at March 12, 2010 01:47 PM (5IsyK)
Posted by: RobD at March 12, 2010 01:53 PM (sV3Dv)
The most scary thing I'm seeing is that commercial real estate delinquencies are going parabolic.
Once that hits and the next wave of alt-A residential loans go south, look out.
2011 is when the bulk of Alt-A and OptionARMs reset, so I expect 2012 to be absolutely brutal. There is NO industry in the US that is going to hire 11 million Americans at middle-class wages in time to save this economy. Period. A service-based consumer economy cannot survive on its own. Tack on cratering income and sales tax receipts that are putting states and muncipalities so far underwater and you have a recipe for some serious pain.
The government and the banks have maintained an illusion of "solvency" by keeping all of their debt liabilities off their books, but they won't be able to do that for long--not when all that real estate is sitting on lots rotting away. Bernanke and Wall Street can try and maintain this illusion indefinitely, but they are going to fail in the end. No one with any sense believes that a recovery is underway when the Dow and unemployment are so far in contradiction to each other.
No one currently in charge (whether it's Wall Street or the government) learned what happened to Ken Lay, apparently.
Posted by: David Axelrod's Combover at March 12, 2010 01:55 PM (/Pw+r)
Breaking news: Economic collapse delayed until June 14th due to Bridezilla.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at March 12, 2010 01:57 PM (cpuvG)
Really?! WTF?
Give a fowl brutha' a break!
Posted by: That Chicken at March 12, 2010 02:05 PM (NEj2I)
Posted by: RobD at March 12, 2010 04:33 PM (sV3Dv)
We're watching you, Mister "Wales".
Posted by: Janet Napolitano at March 12, 2010 02:05 PM (laAWh)
Posted by: KilltheHippies at March 12, 2010 02:12 PM (VKfXw)
Posted by: FUBAR at March 12, 2010 02:31 PM (1fanL)
Posted by: I'm sure of it! at March 12, 2010 02:34 PM (ucq49)
Posted by: Vic at March 12, 2010 02:45 PM (QrA9E)
Apparently, the media whores do. I heard them touting the "recovery" success. Same thing happened during the first throes of the Great Depression. A little bump of false recovery fueled by convenient disbelief and the need to keep partyin'.
The bills always come due.
Posted by: Joan of Argghh! at March 12, 2010 03:04 PM (XkjYg)
I was expecting a modest restocking bounce, and some retooling among those companies that could afford to do it. It would not be an ongoing trend though.
There may be some modest consumer spending bounce from those people who are strategically defaulting on their mortgages as a way to save "instantaneous cash on hand". That party lasts only until such time as the banks are compelled to foreclose and write those bad loans off. Then those people will be seeking housing that costs them money every month and they'll pucker up tight again.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at March 12, 2010 03:05 PM (Ca+Fq)
Thanks for the weekend pick-me-up PA.
No shit. I come here for the movie reviews and recipes. I want pablum.
Posted by: Antimatter at March 12, 2010 03:05 PM (gbCNS)
Sure, I do. Because you can always goose the GDP by borrowing a whole bunch of money and throwing it around. The question is what happens to the GDP when interest rates go up and the government is paying a larger and larger percentage of the budget to service the debt?
Posted by: Ace's liver at March 12, 2010 03:12 PM (LtIsn)
Does anyone really believe the positive GDP numbers?
With the dollar being so low and increasing exports that could be a part of it. A major blip in teh GDP at the beginning of this year was aircraft purchases I believe.
Posted by: Darth Nihilus69 at March 12, 2010 03:19 PM (GfYt/)
The good folk commenting over at ZeroHedge have been yelling and screaming for everyone to get gold, a gun, canned food, and a water purifier for several days now. Granted, that's the default position of a lot of the commenters there anyway, but they have been an awful lot more strident of late. Even the commenters at Sipsey Street Irregulars seem to have taken on a (more) apocalyptic tone of late.
Not sure if it really means anything, but I do sort of get the feeling that matters are starting to come to a head.
Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at March 12, 2010 03:21 PM (kmEfr)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at March 12, 2010 03:24 PM (Ca+Fq)
@10: " We are so boned."
As Bender B. Rodriguez says: "Oh, cruel fate, to be thusly boned. Ask not for whom the bone bones. It bones for thee."
Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at March 12, 2010 03:27 PM (kmEfr)
The fatal flaw in their their plan was assuming that no one would stand up and fight for Liberty.
It's the kind of screwup that leaves a really bad mark.
Posted by: TXMarko at March 12, 2010 03:32 PM (Lj8SM)
@128: "The fatal flaw in their their plan was assuming that no one would stand up and fight for Liberty"
*scans the streets outside my office*
*checks the local and national news*
Nope, no one fighting anything. It appears that they placed a rather savvy bet.
Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at March 12, 2010 03:45 PM (kmEfr)
This time last year, what were the numbers on which party the public trusted more on economic issues ?
Not to say we told ya so, BUT....
Posted by: societyis2blame at March 12, 2010 03:46 PM (rPDD/)
Can you imagine what these Douchebags are going to do in the 11th hour?
The last minute Executive Orders, Pardons, and Lifetime Appointments this asswipe is going to make are gonna make Bill Clinton's pardon fest and land grab look amateurish!
Posted by: garrett at March 12, 2010 03:50 PM (dgpdi)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at March 12, 2010 03:57 PM (Ca+Fq)
Goodies, lots of goodies.
Posted by: Nancy Pelosi at March 12, 2010 04:08 PM (pizFh)
I can save once I'm debt-free.
Posted by: Joanna at March 12, 2010 04:22 PM (euARo)
Posted by: shape ups shoes at March 12, 2010 04:43 PM (Phozt)
Dollar Bulls Beware
By Peter Schiff
By late 2009, as the U.S. dollar flirted with multi-year lows against most foreign currencies, big investment players crowded into trades that shorted the greenback. Commentators noted that the anti-dollar momentum had taken on a life of its own and that the trade had become too crowded. It is true that markets have a nasty tendency to move against the crowd. When a lot of traders agree on a particular trade, it's more likely that in the short-run the opposite trade will be a winner.
The 2008 "flight to safety" rally of the U.S. dollar was a once in a lifetime event that presented huge opportunities for aggressive currency traders. By December 2008, after rallying 25% over the previous five months, the dollar topped out. However, there were many speculators who had come somewhat late to the party, as well as many others who had ridden the dollar up and were thus sitting on huge unrealized gains.
Those technical reasons, combined with the re-emergence of strong growth in emerging markets and solid earnings from overseas companies, redirected investment flows away from the dollar. 2009 became a year of dollar weakness, with the buck giving back nearly all of its gains. At that point, most people made the reasonable conclusion that the decline would continue.
As is often the case, an unforeseen event came along that made mincemeat out of the consensus' well-conceived strategy. Once some fiscal squabbling grabbed headlines in the eurozone, the negative sentiment that had built up on the dollar was suddenly diverted to the euro. Catalyzed by the Greek debt crisis, the greenback surged by about 8% in six weeks.
From a technical standpoint, the short dollar trade of late 2009 was too crowded; but from a fundamental standpoint, I don't think it was crowded enough. As with stocks, there can be no long-term substitute to examining a government's fundamentals to determine its currency's worth. Based on the fundamentals, far too many investors remain far too confident about the greenback's underlying viability.
In fact, I do not think I have ever seen so rapid a change in sentiment in my career. The crowd had completely switched sides, with most now betting on the demise of the euro rather than the dollar. This is looking like July 2008 all over again, with the dollar poised to put in over-sized gains. It also presents a good opportunity for those who keep their heads.
In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized.
My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year's lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar's descent and refocus everyone's attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States.
Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today's announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed's Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed's top players.
Looking for an ally to paper over the administration's gaping fiscal holes, it is not surprising that president Obama made this selection. Yellen has consistently downplayed the dangers of inflation and has made statements that indicate she views the Fed as an extension of the Labor Department, rather than a guardian of our currency. Last month, in discussing what she saw as the Fed's obligation to promote employment, she said, "If it were possible to take interest rates into negative territory, I would be voting for that." She may very well make Chairman Bernanke look like a tightwad by comparison.
It is anyone's guess which sparks will be responsible for igniting the falling dollar powder keg. From a trader's perspective, a sharp reversal in the dollar will catch many investors completely off guard. Those who stepped off the short-dollar train will be stuck on the platform as it speeds away. Those who refused to give up their seats are in for a hell of a ride.
Posted by: Darth Nihilus69 at March 12, 2010 04:44 PM (GfYt/)
Posted by: Darth Nihilus69 at March 12, 2010 04:49 PM (GfYt/)
Posted by: Pelayo at March 12, 2010 05:04 PM (C8qIl)
Posted by: Joanna at March 12, 2010 05:37 PM (euARo)
9/10ths of the commenters over at Zero Hedge are certifiable.
Posted by: Waterhouse at March 12, 2010 06:04 PM (LJm0M)
People need to change their thinking on this.
A home isn't an investment; it's a liability--one that can bring you great joy, of course.
i know the deal with the house....it's all the debt and cars i paid off...although now i have enough open credit to finance a small army.
Posted by: evil libertarian at March 12, 2010 06:17 PM (BGJM2)
Posted by: UGrev at March 12, 2010 07:30 PM (862vz)
Posted by: Jake Was Here at March 12, 2010 09:31 PM (0FtGK)
(My Craigslist personal for the new hopey-changey era.)
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Posted by: joejm65 at March 12, 2010 12:19 PM (vSncj)