1

You know what this post needs?

 

More colorful charts.

2 CAC - excellent work.  Looks like a storm front is a brewing.  

3 Just got a call for the Mikulski/O'Malley campaigns to let my brother, registered independent, that he can now vote early.

That's the second call from them in as many days.  Wow.  The Ds are really pushing the e/v thing hard in Maryland.

4 74? That number sounds familiar. Oh right, it's the same number I predicted.

Of course CAC's is based on knowledge and charts whereas mine was pulled out of my ass. Same results though.

5 You know what this post needs? More colorful charts. Posted by: Dave C at October 26, 2010 07:48 PM (j3HcR) And wise asses

6 Murky better pay up or I aint voting for her

7 Do you have these maps on another photo site? Flickr is blocked here where I work.

8 Are yore lips as prudy as yore maps?

9 Seems strange that there's 100+ "Safe" Dem seats. Those must be completely untouchable.

10 Murky better pay up or I aint voting for her Posted by: Coke dealer at October 26, 2010 07:50 PM (BAtLQ) I hate to tell ya this but it's a write in ballot. Can you spell?

11

#10

It's called gerrymandering.

12 74? That number sounds familiar. Oh right, it's the same number I predicted.

Of course CAC's is based on knowledge and charts whereas mine was pulled out of my ass. Same results though.

And I only need 50% more to get to 111.  By Kos' logic, I'm in fine shape, because I see toilet paper advertised with 50% more sheets all the time.

13 My mommy says CAC is colorblind.

14 Of course CAC's is based on knowledge and charts whereas mine was pulled out of my ass. Same results though.

Posted by: DrewM. at October 26, 2010 07:49 PM (HicGG)

Your proctologist called.  He's going to have to repeat your sigmoidoscopy -- he can't read it because of all the knowledge and charts blocking the view of your colon walls.

15
The Democrat party just called one of my cell phones.  The recording told me to "vote early because they are expecting large turnout".

16

What the heck is this yellow-colored "Tossup D Held 33" category?   Does that mean there are 33 Democrat seats also teetering on the edge of becoming Republican right now, not counting the net gain of 74 Republican seats mentioned in the second line of this post?

If so, yowza!

17 The charts do eerily resemble images from PEP scans.

18 74 seats is exactly the amount of seats I predicted in the contest last week.

19 FL - 23 is a thing of beauty, no. The Meek district.

20

If so, yowza!

Posted by: Never Mind at October 26, 2010 07:55 PM (YZyi1)

Yup.  It means 33 seats now occupied by Democrats are in the toss-up category and could swing Republican just as easily as they could remain Democrat.

21 I haven't seen that much color since I threw up a pound of skittles

22

I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A POST ABOUT RECENT REPORTS OF VOTER FRAUD.

e.g.,  the electronic voting machines in Clark County, Nevada that have been auto-voting for Harry Reid. These machines are maintained by SEIU members and this arrangement is specified by local government rules.

And other voting machines autovoting for (D).

23

Oh and the make and model of the car:  A GM Volt!

Posted by: runningrn at October 26, 2010 07:57 PM (qY2Vc)

It was January 2007 when the backseat drivers Reid and Pelosi (and their minions piled into the way-back) began insisting they had a mandate to tell the driver when and where and how hard to turn.  They are the people who ran the car into the ditch.

And lo and behold! instead of calling AAA for a tow truck, they called a Chicago community organizer to get all of them into the ditch and push.

24 Don't put these on the top of your flip list but if these fall we are looking at triple-digit gains.

I don't know, CAC.  I was thinking the same thing, but this is Doug Cloud's 4th run @ Dicks' seat.  Could be, being a known entity to the district + it being a Wave year could make this an outlier rather than a harbinger to triple digit pick-up.

25 I haven't seen that much color since I threw up a pound of skittles

Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2010 07:58 PM (BAtLQ)

It's pretty much standard to see that color pattern the morning after dinner at the salad bar, what with the green peas, corn, beets, carrot strips....

26
Shit, Doggett is safe in Tx-25?  Haven't seen any numbers, donated to the ER doc.  I've heard lots of good things coming from my friends south of Austin, I'm going to make a crazy prediction and say he goes down, the good Doctor pulls this one out.  The Wave is active in Hays County and S. Austin.

27

OK, for those taking nitroglycerin tables, you may want to pop one under the tongue before reading this.

Gateway Pundit just put up a story . . . Turns out those voting machines in Nevada that had Reid's name automatically popping up . . . guess who they are serviced by . . . drum roll . . . S-E-I-U.

Nice. 

 

28 I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A POST ABOUT RECENT REPORTS OF VOTER FRAUD.
Posted by: Wm T Sherman at October 26, 2010 07:59 PM (w41GQ)

Actually, there have been two on AoS today.

What I would like to see is some of these corrupt officials JAILED for election fraud.

The NC "problem" where 400 voters voted but only 250 ballots were counted? That entire district needs to be double-checked NOW and if more incidents are found, they need to shit it down and start printing paper ballots, and inform voters whose names are signed that they will have to vote again.

Oh, and also fire the nimrods responsible.

And of course the nimrods in NY and Chicago as well, the ones who couldn't be bothered to ensure that the troops would get their ballots.

29 That's some great work CAC. Thanks.

30 Gonna have to get someone to text-message me the election results from the East Coast. I'm the alternate election judge a week from today.

31 CAC, WHAT DOES YELLOW MEAN; TOSSUP?  NO INCUMBENT? I AM VERY TIRED YET CONFUSED.

32

OK, for those taking nitroglycerin tables, you may want to pop one under the tongue before reading this.

Gateway Pundit just put up a story . . . Turns out those voting machines in Nevada that had Reid's name automatically popping up . . . guess who they are serviced by . . . drum roll . . . S-E-I-U.

Nice. 

Posted by: journolist at October 26, 2010 08:05 PM (O/NP5)

Think about this: elections are conducted by counties and their respective elections departments.  Most county employees across the country are in either SEIU or AFSCME.

33 What the heck is this yellow-colored "Tossup D Held 33" category?   Does that mean there are 33 Democrat seats also teetering on the edge of becoming Republican right now, not counting the net gain of 74 Republican seats mentioned in the second line of this post?

Barely + Mod + Likely R Pickup gets you to 76, minus like two R seats that may flip.  Adding those D-held tossups gets you to 109.   Presumably CAC is assuming some of those 109 won't go our way, rather than that we get all 76 and none of the 33.

I think the polls have been underestimating the rightward shift of the voters turning out (see Scott Brown or the Missouri anti Obamacare referendum), so I don't feel real bad about my 111, at least based on CAC's chart.

34

Yellow are seats that are currently tossups, a total of 34 in that category.

33 of them are D held, only 1 is R held so no point in giving it a diferent color.

 

35

CAC, WHAT DOES YELLOW MEAN; TOSSUP?

There are 34 yellow "Tossup" seats.  Of those, 33 are now held by Democrats and 1 by a Republican.

36 CAC, WHAT DOES YELLOW MEAN; TOSSUP?  NO INCUMBENT? I AM VERY TIRED YET CONFUSED.

Threat level ELEVATED.

37

Oh, and also fire the nimrods responsible.

And of course the nimrods in NY and Chicago as well, the ones who couldn't be bothered to ensure that the troops would get their ballots.

Horse thieves where hanged for less. 

38 awesome awesome CAC thank you!!

I laid my marker down with Gabe for 82 GOP net :0>

all in baby~

Be the Wave!

39

73 in the House.

 

9 in the Senate.

 

40 Wow, NJ almost all red...I LIKE IT.

41 19 The charts do eerily resemble images from PEP scans.

Errrm, I think you mean PET scans.  Nobody told me anything about scans.

42

Very informative by the way, CAC. All sarc aside, your efforts are appreciated.

Agreed. 

43 100-ish is looking more and more reasonable.

44

Think about this: elections are conducted by counties and their respective elections departments.  Most county employees across the country are in either SEIU or AFSCME.

Posted by: stuiec at October 26, 2010 08:06 PM (7AOgy)

These people are absolute unscrupulous bastards.  Be vilgilant everybody because the story is gonna be rampant, rampant voter fraud across the land.

The president of the United States through his actions and words has essentially endorsed any method and means possible by painting any and all oppsosition as "evil."

When this forms the subtext and the narrative, the functionaries will do anything and everything they want.

The republic is seriously in a state of fracture and on the verge.

 

45 Wow, NJ almost all red...I LIKE IT. That's because I have enormous *ahem* coat tails.

46 And I wonder what this wave will do for State races.

47 I'm always disappointed by maps like that because I really hope someday to see the Dem numbers at zero.

Not that I'm quite that fond of the GOP, but for now they're the only other girl at the dance.

48 Not that I'm quite that fond of the GOP, but for now they're the only other girl at the dance.

Posted by: JEM at October 26, 2010 08:15 PM (o+SC1)

I think the dream scenario would be two parties: Conservatives and Libertarians - at least if the latter were of the Constitutional not Dopetarian/Liberalitarian stripe.

49 And I wonder what this wave will do for State races. There is an excellent chance that a TEA partier will end up in the Massachusetts State Senate.

50 Oh, and if these maps come to be won't it be time to talk about Democrats becoming a regional party? They've got New England and the big cities and that's it.

51 I was going to argue about some colored pink, I was thinking pinko commie dem, then it occurred to me that is us.

52
As pointed by someone else earlier, President Bush was rather gracious in 2006.

I think he even congratulated the Democrats on their big night. I know he congratulated Pelosi and Reid.

Obama will not do that. Obama will be a prick and act as if a great injustice (or wrong) has been done.

53 The charts do eerily resemble images from PEP scans.

Errrm, I think you mean PET scans.  Nobody told me anything about scans.

Posted by: pep at October 26, 2010 08:11 PM (8zlLq)

Yes, you're right.

54 I'm tired of charts and polls.It's all pre game hype.I just want to win by blowout.

55 Obama will not do that. Obama will be a prick and act as if a great injustice (or wrong) has been done.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 08:23 PM (DTy7x)

Last night, the American people acted stupidly.

56 Obama will not do that. Obama will be a prick and act as if a great injustice (or wrong) has been done.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 08:23 PM (DTy7x)

Worse than when Clinton had to give the Jan. 1995 State of the Union address and say, "The era of big government is over."  Obama is most likely going to say in his Jan. 2011 SOTU, "You all can have your smaller government when you've pried my big government out of my cold dead hands."

57 Question...

Will the census-redistricting be in place fro the 2012 election?

58 Not that I'm quite that fond of the GOP, but for now they're the only other girl at the dance. Posted by: JEM at October 26, 2010 08:15 PM (o+SC1) And as the clock approaches midnight, she starts to look a whole lot better.

59
President Bush said some hoaky shit like he was pleased to see the American election system speak for the people.

Whereas Obama and the Democrats, when the Republican win, demand recounts, cry foul, and vow revenge.

60 Obama will not do that. Obama will be a prick and act as if a great injustice (or wrong) has been done.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 08:23 PM (DTy7x)

Last night, the American people acted stupidly.

Posted by: Barack Obama on Nov 3 at October 26, 2010 08:24 PM (bgcml)

"My Fellow Americans, I understand that you are in the grip of mind-numbing fear.  Jesus said, 'Forgive them, Father, for they know not what they do,' and so now do I forgive you."

61 Not that I'm quite that fond of the GOP, but for now they're the only other girl at the dance.
Posted by: JEM at October 26, 2010 08:15 PM (o+SC1)

And as the clock approaches midnight, she starts to look a whole lot better.

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 26, 2010 08:27 PM (0GFWk)

That's just the Obama goggles.

62 "My Fellow Americans, I understand that you are in the grip of mind-numbing fear. Jesus said, 'Forgive them, Father, for they know not what they do,' and so now do I forgive you." Hey Obama, don't piss on my head and then tell me it's raining

63
Hey Obama, don't piss on my head and then tell me it's raining

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 26, 2010 08:30 PM (0GFWk)

There is that leg tingle again!

64

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 08:26 PM (bAySe)

yep, and since the conservative re-alignment it has been getting better for Reps to the point that Dubya could win in 2000 even though he lost the popular vote

 

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 08:23 PM (DTy7x)

Bush did and said all the right things...not that it helped with his approval ratings but it kept his personal favorability steady enough that he left a popular man thought not a popular President; even Clinton talked about working together the day after the 1994 midterms

I'm anxious to see if Obama will do the same; I personally think he will bitch and whine and take cheap shots and talk about how the GOP can't say no anymore and that's why unlike Bush he could be like Clinton who ends up an unpopular and not respected man, but unlike Clinton he probably won't have those good job approval ratings

65 Just got another GOTV dem call for my brother, different group. That's now three times in 2 days.  WHAT IS GOING ON!!?

66

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 08:40 PM (bAySe)

they need to get Dem euthusiasm up and w/ 1 week to go Judgment Day is getting nearer and nearer and plus I should point out rain is predicted for Tuesday, rain helps the GOP

67 Just think how sweet this map would be if Ace wasn't such of a rino fuckstick.

68 CODE BROWN!!!!

69 10 Seems strange that there's 100+ "Safe" Dem seats. Those must be completely untouchable.

Posted by: Jack Bauer's Dad at October 26, 2010 07:51 PM (p0d2a)

I am willing to bet they lose at least 2 of them this year.

70

Sorry, CAC, but if you think MA-2 is not in play, you haven't done your homework.  Everyone has Richard Neal safe.  He's not.  It's just that everyone's too lazy to poll it.  Scott Brown carried this district 57%-42%, and Tom Wesley has been carrying on a brilliant retail politics insurgency campaign since April.  This seat can be had.  Yet on every LAZY ASS POLLSTER'S MAP, it's dark blue. 

You don't know what you're talking about.  Period.

71 Cool map.  Anyone know why eastern Oklahoma is so liberal?

72 You know what this post needs?
More colorful charts.

Posted by: Dave C



"Lite-Bright, making things with liiiiight,
What a sight, making things with Lite-Bright"

73 24 I haven't seen that much color since I threw up a pound of skittles

Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2010 07:58 PM (BAtLQ)

See, and you guys said there were no such things as unicorns! Greggy here can eat their droppings!

74 Don't you think the assist from SEIU & AFSCME will be worth ~10 districts for the Dems?  House = 57.

75 Red makes me hard.

76 "74 net seats." FOCK!

77 CAC - would you consider picking a few bellweather races with which we could get a sense of the wave early - like if NY-20 is too close to call at 9pm.  I would like to go to bed early with visions of sugerplums Inhofe holding hearings dancing in my head.

78 Finally some awesomeness today, with all of the Voter Fraud stories emerging. CAC...you be da man!!

79 Very interesting issue that after a very successful. Nicely written article good work ! Thanks for the great piece of sharing.

80 I just cant stop reading this.  Its so cool, so full of information that I just didnt know.  Im glad to see that people are actually writing about this issue in such a smart way, showing us all different sides to it.  Youre a great blogger.  Please keep it up.  I cant wait to read whats next.

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82

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