1 First in line at the check-out with a six pack of pudding snacks.

2 Can we assume that Shaddeg's old seat will be won by Quayle? Also, what does polling look like, if any, for AZ-5, Harry Mitchell must go down.

3 3 more weeks!!

Just 3 more weeks!

4 the dem in the open TN-06 race has already dropped out. still phone calling and canvassing. it was a dem seat, but is ranked as the most likely to flip

5 The house is interesting but I'm more interested in projections for the senate.

6 #5 I will be updating my Senate projection hopefully tomorrow/Tuesday. We should be seeing new polling data out of Mason-Dixon and PPP for Nevada. I am hoping for more polling from Washington and California as well. Tom Jensen @ PPP usually leaks dramatic numbers or narrative-changers on his twitter but he has been silent this weekend.

7 I put in the ONT I didn't see this thread. Nate Silver has the TN4 going red Yeah!!! http://tinyurl.com/2wks698

8 I can't wait for Mary Jo Kilroy to have her ass handed to her.

9 I'm a simple minded man, so if I use CAC's map and go -4 GOP -40 dem and split his toss up 40, I get 56 pick ups.  I'd take that.

10 This will deserve from scratch Banana Pudding.

11 I see dead Donkeys.

12

I am hopeful that PA-4 goes R, but it seems unlikely. The Dem Altmire voted against almost all of Obama's major bills except for the Stimulus.

 

 

13

Solid map.  CO 7 will go red.  Agree where you have it ranked though at this point.

14 What's yellow again?

15 The map isn't zooming in all the way.

16 YELLOW- TOSSUP (this is likely to expand deeper into blue territory with the next update if I can get a few more confirmations and spending figures) BRIGHT RED- GOP PICKUP BRIGHT BLUE- DEM PICKUP DARK BLUE DEM RETAIN DARK RED GOP RETAIN

17 OH-6 is a tossup? Charlie Wilson's in trouble? Great news, but I'm hearing nothing about it here in his district.

18 CAC,

Instead of a map, it would be cool so see a chart.  A chart, or listing, grouping seats by state, with the most GOP friendly, Alaska on one end and the most DNC friendly, ie Maine(?), on one end.  And within thse grouping you rank them most likely to go GOP/DEM.

Not bag on your hard work, but the vastly the geographical map is hard to read when a lot of the " bubble" seats are in tiny sized districts.

19 What's the latest on Jon Runyan's bid in NJ?  If nothing else, you can always count on Runyan for some action after the whistle

20 NC8 We will win that. Don't think over wise.  Johnson will kick ass.

Suler? not so sure as with Etheridge.

21 OH-6 is a tossup? Charlie Wilson's in trouble? Great news, but I'm hearing nothing about it here in his district.

Posted by: Snowy Owl at October 10, 2010 11:18 PM (Kn0ng)

It's a flawed map. Especially since it's Ohio.

22 We got answers.

23 Interesting read.

24 Not ripping on you, CAC, it is how it is.

25 OH-6 P.O.S. polling Wilson 44% Johnson 46% surprised it wasnt in the news out there.

26
Also, I think highlighting the 5 or so races at each "level" of takeover could help people make sense of how things are going as new polls come in.  For example, if we are to break through the 60-seat barrier, what 5 races should be looking good?

27

CAC,

 

Did you ever see major league?

Do you remember how the Coach motivated the team, but making a cardboard cut out of the female team own, and the clothes were held on magnetically, and with every win a piece of cloth would come off. The goal being enough wins mad the playoffs.

 

Well, you need to make one for Pelosi, with all of the Dem house seats, and we can rip a piece off for each win we get.

 

just saying.

28 surprised it wasnt in the news out there.

Posted by: CAC at October 10, 2010 11:31 PM (lV4Fs)

The local rags don't care if it isn't local.

It is good news about Johnson!

29 Level 1 are the seats currently in red. level 2 are the seats currently in yellow. Level 3 will be any new tossups that get added (and will be amended in further updates) Level 4 will be any democrats that gut put in the caution yellow level October 18th. Lets call that the final firewall- and I have a gut feeling Fwank, Dingleberry, and quite a few other shockers make that last cut.

30

Well, you need to make one for Pelosi, with all of the Dem house seats, and we can rip a piece off for each win we get.

Posted by: Ben at October 10, 2010 11:37 PM (DKV43)

That's the worst fucking idea I've heard of.

 

31 So, do we pudding for each win, or each win above control, or each win above what we expect, or just keep a lot of pudding on hand and splash in as the mood takes us?

32

Did you ever see major league?

Do you remember how the Coach motivated the team, but making a cardboard cut out of the female team own, and the clothes were held on magnetically, and with every win a piece of cloth would come off. The goal being enough wins mad the playoffs.

 Well, you need to make one for Pelosi, with all of the Dem house seats, and we can rip a piece off for each win we get.

Posted by: Ben

You're going the wrong way!

or

Put on it on baby!Put it all back on!

33 OH-06 has been held by the Democrats for years, but the district has a slight tendency to go Republican in Presidential elections.  Cook has it as "lean Dem" now, but that's pretty soft for a incumbent with only two terms under his belt, swimming against the tide.

It is gerrymandered along the eastern edge of the state, and was Ted Strickland's old district for several terms.

Cook and Rothenberg have both come around to recognizing the wave, but aren't able (or willing) to go as far as Sabato has . . . they are sticking closer to the Nate Silver numbers. 

IOW, it could be a toss-up, if not today, in another three weeks' time.

34
I read today that only 150 races have any kind of public polling out there at this point, which is actually very high. Can you imagine how much fun this would be if we had good polling on all 435 seats?

35 I have family rescheduling a trip (to visit an ailing relative) so that they can vote November 2... in an already quite right-leaning district. You think they aren't serious and treating this year's vote like it was their last?

C'mon, November!

36 My God - who's green? I want to be with those guys.

37 Even though I know it won't do a damn bit of good, I'm voting in NM-3 before I head back into the deep red Texas panhandle.  San Juan county's usually good for the repubs, but there isn't another county in the area that goes that way.  Ah, well, Susan Martinez can use all the help she can get in the governor's race.

38 I like you CAC. I like your optimism, your being honest and your being you! I also like that you give feed back on a regular basis. Any thought for running for office? By the way, where abouts do you live?

39 I'm looking at this poll in NY and I'm thinking that the dems can't really celebrate.

40

November 2nd should be declared National Slurpee Day!

Hurray!!

41 I'll be first in line at MadameX's House of Pudding Dipping on Nov 3rd!

Better buy more than a six-pack though!

42 What's the story with Utah? I wouldn't think there would be any blue there.

43 I'm thinking that "early voting" has ruined our system.  Somehow a poll on the day someone chooses to vote or a commercial that may be wrong but is out there and can't be refuted until it's out there, can change the whole system.  it should be one day, period.  And certainly not all by computer, that's just nuts.  As it is, most Americans don't trust the process and early voting makes them distrust the process even more.

tonight a guest on batchelor was saying that jerry brown is putting pictures of cats on his twitter. This made me think of Nanny P's pictures of cats on her congressional feed.  I'm wondering now if putting up cats is some sort of signal.

44 Any chance you can make the image higher resolution?

45 Oh, and looking at all that red - who is the regional party now?!?

46 "There is also one surprise seat that based on some local information I have posted in toss-up. You might know the guy, I will leave it up to you morons to figure it out."

Is it AZ-7? Grijalva called for a boycott of his own state. What a dumbass. A recent poll came out showing a dead heat.

"but I can easily see 1/3 of the tossups joining the aforementioned 47 for a total of 67 seats"

I read somewhere - perhaps from Nate Silver - that in these kind of wave elections the benefiting party usually wins about 75% of tossups. That would give us about 78 seats according to this map.

47 Colorado #7 is one of those we are going to get. I cannot see Perlmutter (98% Pelosi supporter) holding that seat. Ryan Fraiser will win it.

48 2 Can we assume that Shaddeg's old seat will be won by Quayle? Also, what does polling look like, if any, for AZ-5, Harry Mitchell must go down.

Posted by: Jack Bauer's Dad at October 10, 2010 10:43 PM (p0d2a)

The morning drive talk show host Barry Young is pretty upbeat about Dave Schweikert's chances. His campaign is running some devastating ads about Harry Mitchell throwing money around to support the phony health care bill, cap and trade, and the stimulus bill. Of course Mitchell won't show up anywhere for fear of being challenged.

49 Nevada 3 is in the pudding already???  Last poll I saw, Joe Heck, although up, was still within the margin of error.

However, would love to see that inbred coont Dina Titus retired from government 'service' forever.  Seriously, every time I hear her speak, it sounds like she should be working in the rental office at a trailer park. 

50 San Fran Nana is gonna learn a military term for those that are held accountable for their stupid actions by those in power...BOHICA

Bend
Over
Here
It
Comes
Again

As for Dingy Harry...he'll be unemployed :-)

51 Colorado #7 is one of those we are going to get. I cannot see Perlmutter (98% Pelosi supporter) holding that seat. Ryan Fraiser will win it.

Here's the most recent poll out for CO-7. It shows Frazier ahead by 1 point, but more importantly Perlmutter is not only below the 50% danger mark, but below 40%.

It's a Republican pollster, but the internals look pretty good. The poll showed a 3 point advantage for democrats. Cook has the PVI at D +4. The questions seemed straight forward as well.

52 NYPIRG examined the campaign contributions of Cumo and Palladino over a ten year period.  Palladino gave more to Republicans.  Cumo comes off looking like a cheapskate.

I wonder if they give to charity in the same percentages.

53 "On Sarah Palin, Axelrod said: “She certainly has a following, and she’s an interesting personality. … When she sends out a tweet on Twitter, or puts something on her Facebook, you guys cover it; people respond to it. And so that makes her a player in our politics.”

Link

If this is what the ax is saying then she wouldn't be a good candidate, they are pushing her for whatever reason.  I think she's brilliant, would love to see her successfully run, but that comment, gives me the creeps.

54

_{So I've been trying to do my part to motivate, educate, illuminate.  To try and DO SOMETHING because I am disturbed by the way my beloved country has lurched left.}

 

_{It. Just. Feels. Wrong.}  

 

_{IÂ’ve brashly modified some of AceÂ’s lines and today ended my 4th email broadcast to contacts and friends with this:}

 

_{This is not the time to get sheepish or to cower or to just hope it happens.  Nor is it a time to get complacent.}

 

_{Do you want this?
Do you crave this?
Are you doing everything you can to help make it happen?}

_{Make the CALLS.}

_{Get a yard sign, send out emails, talk to people, volunteer.}

_{Find a candidate and DONATE.}

_{DonÂ’t just complain, get involved.  If youÂ’re a mother, consider becoming a Momma Grizzly.  Or at least buy a t-shirt to support the cause.}

_{The difference in a lot of these out-of-nowhere contests is the ground game.  Contact your local GOP offices to find out how you can help.  It's important.  I've never done this before.  I always thought it was stupid, frankly, and a big waste of time.}

_{It's not.  Not this year.  We need to do this.}

 

 

55 Could you make these maps bigger and more readable for my tired old eyes.

Thanks

56 Man, that green hurts my eyes so bad I can't even read it.  It makes the red go all "jibbity-jibbity" when I look at it.

57 45 - that district looks like they gerrymandered the university and an indian reservation together.  big chunks of that blue space have little to none population.

58 Batchelor just made me nauceous by saying Andrew C. from New york doesn't want to be governor to be governor but to be president.  He pointed out that Andrew's dad lost to Ed Koch.  He also said that Cuomo, Sr. could have had the presidency and would have defeated Reagan and history would be different.  If that were true, Mario would have run.  My dad, who I called to ask about this, staunchly disagrees with Batchelor on this point.  Batchelor also mentioned Palladino's remarks about being gay.  No one has quoted the man, not a professional politician, correctly.  Batchelor pulled an Ace and whispered that "the comments" would be a problem but called Palladino a don Quixote for running against C, jr.   Dear Lord, this is a total disgrace, that someone should be perceived as the winner, hands down, the month before, in a state that is truly in flux?  Something is very wrong here.

59 I figured out what was wrong with ace.mu.nu. It's not that you're missing the point. Occasionally you get the point. You are avoiding the point.
You are functional and accommodating enough to have comfortable lives for the most part.
That's not the point.
(Oh, I see, you want me to tell you the point. Sorry.)
http://tinyurl.com/28ouvq8

60 61
Cuomo gave the keynote address at the 84 Dem convention. As with every Dem keynote speaker, they are always "the greatest candidate for President in the Future^®". The Dems always think that someone else would have beaten the Republican President, but next election that candidate will run and win. That is what the Dems thought of Cuomo in 84.

If Cuomo had run against Reagan, Reagan would have still won in a walk. Reagan was beyond popular at this time. It wasn't like that election was even close, Reagan won every state but Minnesota and DC.

61 62 I figured out what was wrong with ace.mu.nu. It's not that you're missing the point. Occasionally you get the point. You are avoiding the point.
You are functional and accommodating enough to have comfortable lives for the most part.
That's not the point.
(Oh, I see, you want me to tell you the point. Sorry.)
http://tinyurl.com/28ouvq8
Posted by: Thorvald

Meh. Went to your blog, and I was thoroughly underwhelmed.

I'm guessing  you if came here to get people to link to your most awesomeness blog,  then you shouldn't come in and shit all the host.

62 Just looked at the AZ-7 poll showing a dead heat in a usually safe democratic district. The crosstabs have the breakdown at D51/R29/I20. That's a 22 point advantage for democrats in a district that A) Cook has the PVI at D+6 and B) went for Obama 57-42. Are we to believe that democrat's fortunes have improved by 7 points since 2008 in this environment?

Democrats are way oversampled in this poll and yet Ruth McClung still holds Grijalva at 49%.

63 Democrats are way oversampled in this poll and yet Ruth McClung still holds Grijalva at 49%.

Woops. I meant 40%

64 I don't know about VA-9. You got it as a toss up, but Boucher is very much in tune with his district. Then again, the Blue Dog masquerade is being stripped away this year. People are looking to see if they talk the talk as well as walk the walk. Another issue with VA-9 is that there is a farmer/vet/businessman running as an independent, with the current Speaker of the VA House running as the GOP candidate. I'm worried that they'll split the right vote and Boucher will head back to DC for his 15th term. I'm in Cantor's district, and the Dem running against him is nutty. His website claims corn fed beef is a carcinogen. Yeah. I don't that word means what you think it means, Mr. Waugh. I was going to go help Hurt beat Periello, but he has that in the bag. Weirdly enough, I'm considering skipping the election. Our state elections are in odd years, so the only one up for vote is sending Cantor back to DC. Which is going to happen, no worries. My district is basically designed to give 60% of the vote to the GOP no matter what. Yeah, yeah, "we are the wave". That's true if you vote in a close race, or if you have close races nearby you can help with.

I'm just pissed we don't have a Senate seat up this year. I want Webb and Warner out and replaced. I hear Allen is laying groundwork for a comeback, but I really want Cantor to make the step up to the Senate.

65 Send money to Dino Rossi!!! --> https://www.dinorossi.com/donate/

California and Connecticut are long shots to win control of the Senate.  A few polls have come showing him up but in reality I'd guess he's still down by half a point or so.  This is relatively a very easy race to make an impact in and it will have down-ticket effects on WA-2 and WA-9. 

66 Britt,

The reason the 9th is rated a tossup is that the latest polls have Boucher up a couple of points, but well below 50. Boucher may say he is against Cap & Trade, but after Obamacare, I don't think anyone is getting fooled by what some of the politicians are saying. They want to get rid of D's. Boucher is a D, sorry. but even though we like you, you are gone.

As for the 3rd party, his support is weak, and will only get weaker. Those people saying they will vote for him are anti-incumbent. As the election gets closer, they will peel off from him and go to Griffith. By election day, the 3rd party may receive several hundred votes, but that should be it.

67 @20

Runyan should benefit from the news that the dems planted a fake tea party candidate in his district.  Then again this is NJ and that might just be considered an ordinary campaign tactic.

68 @20

Oh, and a poll just before the news of the dem plant showed Runyan within 3. 42-39.

69 Guys, one thing to keep in mind is a lot of the polls (perhaps all except for Rasmussen) are flawed because they aren't weighting Republicans off current registration, but off of 2008 exit interviews. You've probably got a good 4-6 points of skew right there if any of the polls are using registered voters, or even an improperly or inadequately adjusted sample of likely voters. In short, I think the polls will be trying to catch up to reality right up until the election and even beyond. The idiot pundits will be sitting around having their Pauline Kael moments, wondering how they missed it.

70 Great video

71 I'm putting a reminder in my phone calendar to pick up a Slurpee on the way to work on Nov. 2.  Not sure how many people will get the joke, but it should be fun to rub it in with one of my libtard work buds.

72 OK-2 is Dan Boren and he's pretty conservative; not under Obama's sway.

73 Don't rule out IL-9! Marxist Jan could be in for a shocker this time around! Remember the guy who stood up to Bawney Fwank on the YouTube video? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjn8jAGQZPI That's who is running against her, and he's got some serious momentum building here.

74 Britt @ 67: "be the wave" isn't just about voting R, it's about encouraging other conservatives to vote especially in close districts.  It also means supporting your local candidates to build up the farm team.

75 I guess I missed the Slurpee meme...why are Slurpees significant?

76

Nevermind about the Slurpees...Obama says we're sippin Slurpees while those 'hard working Dems' are shouldering the burden.

Yeah.

Right.

77 ...Mr Obama?...ever heard of a tow truck?  Some people just insist on making the simple things hard, I guess...*sip*...

78 Yeah, I missed the Slurpee thing too.  I was around for the pudding, but don't have a clue about the Slurpees.

Like Ace's dad kept asking in that rainbow video, What does it meeeeaaaannnnnn?

79 Sorry, was posting at the same time as 79...


Sippin' my slurpee, I guess.  Not payin' attention.

80

Ahh...insomnia.

Yeah, I watched the pudding meme unfold in all its grandness as well.

81 Rise 'n' shine, Morons. 518 hours until the polls close. Now go grab a campaign sign and play in traffic.

82 I see from the Fox story this morning they have printed a half-assed retraction on the Paladino story. That idiot phrase that we were all quoting him with saying from Ap and two of the NY papers was a lie.

This guy may not be the "best" Republican candidate but he is better than a "D" and once again we jumped on false reports from the MFM.

At least this time I did check a different paper in NYC (The Post) which is normally pretty good about that shit.

We need to do better than this guys.

83 518 542 hours until the polls close. Now go grab a campaign sign and play in traffic. FIFM.

84 barney frank to debate Bielat in 15 minutes.  WRKO.com.

85 87 Chain Fannie & Freddie around his neck and weld it secure. Or build a robot to weld it.

86 What good will all these pickups be if we just elect a bunch of RINOs?

87

CAC:

The GOP candidate in PA 10 has shot himself in the foot several times. The district now leans Democrat or at best is a toss up.

88

Video Recap: Biden, Sestak, Onorato, Nutter in Philadelphia to ‘Move America Forward’

President Obama visited Philadelphia this evening for the second of four “Moving America Forward” rallies across the country in an effort to energize a Democrat base widely seen as less enthusiastic than right-leaning Tea Partiers and Independents. Battle ‘10 was there for the rally.

The event represented the biggest effort so far to unite Democrat candidates in Pennsylvania. Congressman Bob Brady (D-1st) remarked that it was the first time in PhiladelphiaÂ’s history that both the president and vice president appeared together at a rally.

[ . . . ]

Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter also appeared briefly, but was roundly booed by the crowd of more than 10,000.

[ . . . ]

Michael Nutter, Philadelphia mayor, appeared for less than a minute and was not well received. Mayor Nutter has been accused of being “not black enough” for the city, among other things.

89
Barney Franksucker and Sean Bielat are debating right now on WRKO radio.

Sean sounds great -- informed, crisp, clear. Barney sounds like he has shit in his mouth.

90

First question DADT. Barney For, Bielat, Complete the study.

Second question. Barney Afganistan is the source of terrorists, so obligated to be there, Iraq mistake. Withdraw rapidly from Iraq and from Afganistan. Bielat fighting for America then get out, fighting to win clear what we are to accomplish, congress and Obama not clear what there outcome should be. Barney throws in Bielat chuckling, 'it's not funny.' Beilat 'I'm not laughing.' Frank we want to protect America. America can't shut down every rathole. Bielat need troops there for inteligence.

Barney breaking rules of debate. Dirrhea of the mouth.

Beilat pushing intelligence and national security.

 

91
Barney Frank is a bitch. He lobs bombs for the sole purpose to cause his opponent to interrupt and then Frank plays the victim.

92 Bielat, support Isreal proactively. Frank, after the fact, if Isreal bombed. Enforce sanctions. Frank expounding on his work with Israelis. Barney accusing Beilat of interupting him, though this is not audible. Barney diarrhea of mounth does not really want to give up the floor.

93
He here goes again. Barney jumped the gun!

Sean: "Before I even opened my mouth you were complaining about me interrupting."

94
All of a sudden the Tea Party is some organized political body?

The tea party = the people.

95 Barney, Tea Party not helpful, punishes mainstream candidates. opens the door to Fannie and Freddie. Brown voted for this bill. Tea Party is harmful as they hurt bi-partinsinship, Murkowski, Castle, hurt by Tea party.

96
Barney said the Tea Party doesn't believe in compromise, implying they are extremists.

Now Barney is denying it.

97 Barney thinks Rinos are republicans, he likes it that they bend over and take it up the a@@. Barney likes the Rinos.

98

Talking about the Molly Norris. How she was driven underground, Barney the liar says she should be protected 24/7....liar...

99 Bielat, Obama won't even acknowledge that jihad, terrorists exist. Bielat, don't even let them get in here.

100

ROTC refused on some colleges, should they be allowed, Bielat yes, especially if receive federal funds. Harvard denies them, it would be better for country if these people had some understanding of the military. Barney back to DADT. If DATD was not in place they would allow. It all comes back to the gays.

101

Damn. Networks are in full court press mode.

Every second is filled with the Gop/teaparty are nazi racist neanderthal witch psycho meme.

102 Immigration. Bielat Arizona reaction to federal government not doing their job. Federal government must do the job. Bielat we have technology to secure border just needs the intiative from government. Frank, well corporations should not hire them. Federal oversee of identity.

103 @madamex and soothsayer...we're listening, please continue your live-blog

104 Christine O'Donnell may be against masturbation, but here in NY-1, we are Randy, and we're going to beat the Bishop!

105

Stimulus vote, Barney throws in Bush started it, now says Obama made mistakes. Less if no stimulus. Private sector is gaining jobs, public sectors keeps jobs. Bielat says more quarters of unemplyment, not a success. Reduce income tax withholding. Stop public works projects let people keep their own money. Small business taxed to death, afraid to hire.

106 Yeah this is more reality based. I agree that at least 40-45 seats are ours unless something dramatic happens (fat chance) and in all likely hood i'm starting to think it'll be a 55-60 seat gain. I do however believe that if we get the kinda wave that Scott Brown got in MA and we saw in NJ & VA Governor's Elections, with conservatives and moderates joined in opposition to Dems, we could pull off as much as 80 seats gained in the House and win 12-14 more senate seats. But my predictions still stands 50-80 in the House, 10-12 in the senate

107 Barney mistakes did not regualte. Barney thinks he is financial genius. Bielat favors smaller governement, people want less regulation.

108

Posted by: madamex at October 11, 2010 07:52 AM (jChrK)

Ace should have let you live blog this lol

seriously though, good job reporting

109 Barney, F&F bad loans were the bullets, dirivatives were the guns, He is backing off all his words. 2004 he did not see mortgage crisis. Barney liar says he pushed for rental housing....LIAR<LIAR. Low income home ownership, mistake. Outlawed now the loans that he pushed, glad he is called on it.

110 They let Barney do to much talking. He is allowed to spin too much. Lying about his role in F & F.

111 Bielat has letter Frank wrote that show these lies, "Frank resisted efforts to reform F&F. Bielat says Frank has long been advocate for low income ownership, his letters and votes show otherwise.

112 Barney lies about F&F, getting angry. Bielat hardly allowed to respond...The End.

113

Damn. Networks are in full court press mode.

Not like it matters.  The only 12 people watching that crap are granola eating left wing loons who would never in a million years vote anything but democrat anyway.

The jig is up on the MSM, I think most people with half a brain realize their nothing more than a mouthpiece for the Democratic party. 

114

Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Commenter-Mad At The Rays For Playing With His Emotions) at October 11, 2010 07:54 AM (4NbXN)

I think this is their only debate. At 7a in the morning. The moderators let Barney bullshit too much. They should have containe him. Sean held his own, Barney is an accomplished liar.

115

Posted by: madamex at October 11, 2010 08:05 AM (jChrK)

Thanks for live blogging the debate. Job well done!

116 "The President's Nun: Obamacare Scranton Scandal Explodes"
By Jeffrey Lord on 10.11.10 

Can you say "October Surprise"?

WNEP TV (Channel 16) reporter Jon Meyer filed a story about the sale at 4:40 pm. that afternoon. WNEP TV anchor Paula Giangiacomo led the story on the air by saying that "one big" reason for the sale "is the health care reform bill signed into law this year." Mercy Health Partners CEO Cook was interviewed on camera along with Sister Marie Parker. When Meyer asked Cook if ObamaCare had anything at all to do with the sale, the CEO replied:

    "Health care reform is absolutely playing a role. Was it the precipitating factor in this decision? No, but was it a factor in our planning over the next five years? Absolutely."

A Capitol Hill aide to a Republican U.S. Senator says of the Scranton controversy the Obama White House is terrified the Mercy Hospital sales story will "get legs" as a national story -- further intensifying the anti-Obama vote pollsters are recording in potentially record numbers. And leading to the defeat of not only Kanjorski and Carney but another Pennsylvania Democratic Congressman who voted for ObamaCare: U.S. Senate nominee Joe Sestak. Sestak is trailing his own opponent, conservative anti-ObamaCare GOP nominee Pat Toomey.
 

117 92
Barney Franksucker and Sean Bielat are debating right now on WRKO radio.

Sean sounds great -- informed, crisp, clear. Barney sounds like he has shit  the Barbed Cock of Satan ^(tm) in his mouth.

FIFY

118

Posted by: Ed Anger at October 11, 2010 08:11 AM (7+pP9)

The callers are pissed at hosts for not chanelling Frank, letting his have diarrhea of the mouth.

119 Some callers think good he was allowed to ramble. Everyone could tell he was full of sh*t.

120 They let Barney do to much talking.

The last time someone on Fox tried to interview him he did the same shit and they wouldn't throttle him back.

He regurgitates one lie after another and never lets anyone else get a word in to refute it.

121 I have my doubts about AR-2 turning.  This was the seat of Vic Snyder who was a big time lefty.  He was far and away the most liberal of the Arkansas reps, but he kept getting re-elected.  The Dem, Joyce Elliot is a twit, but the demographics of the district are in her favor.  The one bright spot is that some of the areas outlying Little Rock don't have the same demographics and they are growing quickly in population.

122

Posted by: Vic at October 11, 2010 08:26 AM (/jbAw)

thus why his interview w/ O'Reilly ended up in a shouting match

123

Posted by: maverick muse at October 11, 2010 08:16 AM (H+LJc)


I just read that article. It's a real shocker. It already looked like Kanjorski and Sestak were doomed but this sticks a fork in them. And it might just be a game changer for the Carney campaign.

This story is gonna hurt lots of people if it breaks nationwide (the local press won't say a peep). I hope Rush talks about it today.

The President's Nun: Obamacare Scranton Scandal Explodes

124 Oregon's 5th district will flip. Kurt Schrader did get the NRA nod, but Scott Bruun has Gun Owners of America and the Oregon Firearms Federation on his side. Plus, Oregon is hurting for Jobs.

Oregon's 1st district may flip too. David Wu has been largely invisible, riding on his D+7 margin. I would give that one a 45% flip possibility.

125 I see Iowa 3 is listed as tossup, but what about IA-1 and 2? With IA-4 and IA-5 already solidly Repub. there is an extremely possible chance that all 5 members of Iowa's House delegation could "go red" in November. Throw in the fact that Sen. Grassley is a shoo in for re-election and Branstad is running away with the Governor's race and one can get a very nice leg tingle from this important primary state.....

126 Steve Forbes was on Squawk and my friend told me steve said there is a vermont poll that only has leahy up by 6.  Anyone know how to find this poll.  My friend is from Vermont so he, though a dem, is not fond of leahy so he took this as good news.

127 Since nobody is reading anymore, I thought I'd post my list of every threatened incumbent.  Asterisks mark seats that are harder reaches, by # of asterisks.

Alabama: AL-2: Bobby Bright 

Arizona: AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick; AZ-5: Harry Mitchell; AZ-7: Raul Grijalva**; AZ-8: Gabrielle Giffords

Arkansas: AR-1: Marion Berry (open); AR-2: Vic Snyder (open); AR-4: Mike Ross*

California: CA-11: Jerry McInerney*; CA-47: Loretta Sanchez*

Colorado: CO-3: John Salazar; CO-4: Betsy Markey; CO-7: Ed Perlmutter

Connecticut: CT-4: Jim Himes*; CT-5: Chris Murphy*

Delaware: DE-AL: Mike Castle (open) (Dem pickup)

Florida: FL-2: Allen Boyd; FL-8: Allan Grayson; FL-22: Ron Klein; FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas

Georgia: GA-2: Sanford Bishop**; GA-8: Jim Marshall

Idaho: ID-1: Walt Minnick**

Illinois: IL-8: Melissa Bean*; IL-11: Debbie Halvorson; IL-14: Bill Foster; IL-17: Phil Hare

Indiana: IN-2: Joe Donnelly; IN-8: Brad Ellsworth (open); IN-9: Baron Hill

Iowa: IA-1: Bruce Braley**; IA-2: David Loebsack*; IA-3: Leonard Boswell

Kansas: KS-3: Dennis Moore (open)

Kentucky: KY-3: John Yarmuth*; KY-6: Ben Chandler*

Louisiana: LA-2: Joe Cao (dem pickup); LA-3: Charlie Melancon (open)

Maine: ME-2: Mike Michaud**

Maryland: MD-1: Frank Kratovil, Jr.

Massachusetts: MA-4: Barney Frank***; MA-5: Nikki Tsongas**; MA-10: Bill Delahunt (open)

Michigan: MI-1: Bart Stupak (open); MI-5: Dale Kildee**; MI-7: Mark Schauer; MI-15: John Dingell****

Minnesota: MN-1: Tim Walz*; MN-7: Collin Peterson***; MN-8: Jim Oberstar**

Mississippi: MS-1: Travis Childers; MS-4: Gene Taylor***

Missouri: MO-3: Russ Carnahan**; MO-4: Ike Skelton

Nevada: NV-3: Dina Titus

New Hampshire: NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter; NH-2: Paul Hodes (open)

New Jersey: NJ-3: John Adler

New Mexico: NM-1: Martin Heinrich*; NM-2: Harry Teague

New York: NY-1: Tim Bishop**; NY-13: Mike McMahon*; NY-14: Carolyn Maloney**; NY-19: John Hall; NY-20: Scott Murphy*; NY-23: Bill Owens; NY-24: Mike Arcuri; NY-25: Dan Maffei**; NY-29: Eric Massa (open)

North Carolina: NC-2: Bob Etheridge; NC-7: Mike McIntyre; NC-8: Larry Kissell; NC-11: Heath Shuler*

North Dakota: ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy

Ohio: OH-1: Steve Driehaus; OH-13: Betty Sutton**; OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy; OH-16: John Boccieri; OH-18: Zack Space

Oregon: OR-1: David Wu**; OR-5: Kurt Schrader

Pennsylvania: PA-3: Kathy Dahlkemper; PA-4: Jason Altmire**; PA-7: Joe Sestak (open); PA-8: Patrick Murphy; PA-10: Chris Carney; PA-11: Paul Kanjorski; PA-12: Mark Critz; PA-17: Tim Holden**

South Carolina: SC-5: John Spratt

South Dakota: SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin

Tennessee: TN-4: Lincoln Davis*; TN-6: Bart Gordon; TN-8: John Tanner

Texas: TX-17: Chet Edwards; TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez; TX-28: Henry Cuellar*

Utah: UT-2: Jim Matheson***

Virginia: VA-2: Glenn Nye; VA-5: Tom Perriello; VA-9: Rick Boucher**; VA-11: Gerry Connolly

Washington: WA-2: Rick Larsen*; WA-3: Brian Baird (open); WA-9: Adam Smith**

West Virginia: WV-1: Allan Mollohan (open); WV-3: Nick Rahall*

Wisconsin: WI-3: Ron Kind; WI-7: Dave Obey (open); WI-8: Steve Kagen

128 This map is not correct.  It shows my district as solid blue. That is nonsense.  The cruds couldn't elect a democrat to congress from my district, even if they raised Thomas Jefferson from the dead.   

129 45 What's the story with Utah? I wouldn't think there would be any blue there. The blue in Utah is due to Jim Matheson, whose ads are screaming so loud about the fact that he voted against Obamacare that I actually LOL'd when I saw them. Despite the efforts of the Fire Pelosi tour he is a pretty solid lock, unless anti incumbant fever takes full sway in Utah.

130 thank you for your post,i appriciate it!

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