Ace of Spades HQ

October 18, 2010

CAC's House Projections 10/18/2010 (Very Very Big Edition)
— CAC

For the remaining House projections, I have decided to mix things up a bit for you morons.
Since even my larger maps are a bit hard to view the smaller districts, I redid the whole damn thing but in 12 separate parts to give as detailed (and nuanced) a projection as possible.
The last time I was projecting Delaware At-Large and Louisiana 2 going to the Democrats, and 63 seats going to the GOP for a net gain of 61 seats.

MN-1, MO-4, AZ-7, TX-27, VA-11, CT-4, IL-8 and a few others have been moved to "GOP pickup" now for a gain of 71 seats. [edited due to a math err]

I would have moved IL-10 to DEM PICKUP but a recent poll pushed it right back into tossup status.

Quick guide to the dozen maps:
(scaled in terms of GOP pickup likelihood)
Dark Red- GOP SAFE Hold
Bright Red- GOP Likely Flip (bet your pudding pile)
Magenta- GOP Moderate Flip (damned good odds we win this seat)
Pink- GOP Barely Flip (lowest odds but still pegging it as a win)
Yellow- Tossup
Light Blue- DEM Barely Holds (last station before Doomville)
Deep Sky Blue- DEM Moderate Hold (Democrat has decent odds but the race could be competitive)
Blue- DEM Likely Hold (the long-shot races, for now)
Dark Blue- DEM SAFE Hold
BlueGreen- DEM Pickup

OVERALL STATS-
SAFE DEM SEATS- 107
DEM PICKUPS - 2 (DE-AL and LA-2)
DEM LIKELY HOLD- 20
DEM MOD HOLD- 9
DEM BARELY HOLD- 9
TOSSUP (DEM HELD)- 41
TOSSUP (GOP HELD)- 2 (IL-10 and HI-1)
GOP BARELY FLIP- 41
GOP MOD FLIP- 19
GOP LIKELY FLIP- 11
SAFE GOP SEATS- 174
Projected House: GOP 245 Toss-Up 43 DEM 147

Oh yeah, and be the wave...

Posted by: CAC at 09:26 AM | Comments (119)
Post contains 301 words, total size 6 kb.

1 That's a helluva lot of work, thanks CAC.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 18, 2010 09:29 AM (AZGON)

2 Oh, your link at the end of post is broken.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 18, 2010 09:29 AM (AZGON)

3 Holy cow. Need to get after those pink districts.

Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at October 18, 2010 09:31 AM (BOAqG)

4 Who the heck is CAC?

Have I been gone for too long?

Posted by: TXMarko at October 18, 2010 09:31 AM (lfhut)

5 I prefer directions in lieu of maps.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at October 18, 2010 09:32 AM (Y81Xa)

6 When I go to my Doc, I just want to know if I am going to be breathing tomorrow. When I go to my accountant I just want to know the number. And when I see my lawyer, I just want to know if I'm gonna be sharing a cell with a guy named Bubba. So all I really wanna know about the election is are we up or down. Keep it simple, Keep it stupid.

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 09:34 AM (0GFWk)

7 What's up with OK-2? Who's the lying Democrat there?

Posted by: logprof at October 18, 2010 09:35 AM (BP6Z1)

8 Whoa... the colors....

Posted by: Damn Skippy at October 18, 2010 09:35 AM (VDgKF)

9 CAC is much more optimistic that the Real Clear Politics map. I hope your right.

Posted by: Mark in Spokane at October 18, 2010 09:35 AM (Yrtu5)

10 Good freakin' Lord -- we've got a state called "Chicagoland" now? Are we really getting close to 57?

Posted by: cthulhu at October 18, 2010 09:36 AM (/0IOT)

11 By the way, Obama's 'rally' on the OSU campus yesterday? Yeah, I was invited. They wanted to give me 6 tickets! 6! Not only do I live an hour from Columbus, I also am a registered R voter. MMM, mmm, I love it. They had to robo call people to get them to attend Odogma's rally!

HA HA HA HA HA

Posted by: momma at October 18, 2010 09:36 AM (penCf)

MN-1? Oh, please, God, let it be so. Let the days of Walz pass away.

Posted by: Monty at October 18, 2010 09:39 AM (4Pleu)

13 OT: A Jew throws a shoe a BO.

Posted by: momma at October 18, 2010 09:39 AM (penCf)

14 CAC, If I'm counting right, the Dems currently have 107 safe +38 (any hold) +41 tossup + 71 (any R flip) = 257 seats. I thought I saw somewhere it was 255, so maybe I'm missing something.

In terms of Gabe's prediction challenge, your current outer bound would be 257-147=110 seats, right?

And not that it's going to happen, but 158 is the magic number that would take them under 100. Which might induce some libs to start fleeing the country.

Posted by: Methos at October 18, 2010 09:41 AM (Ew1k4)

15 CAC is much more optimistic that the Real Clear Politics map. I hope your right.

Posted by: Mark in Spokane at October 18, 2010 01:35 PM (Yrtu5)

One problem with RCP is that they will include polls that do look like partisan pap - and the Democrats are really starting to gin those up now.

Look, for example, at the Marshall Poll in the Raese/Manchin race;

http://tinyurl.com/2cqaquv

Posted by: 18-1 at October 18, 2010 09:41 AM (7BU4a)

16 - They had to robo call people to get them to attend Odogma's rally!

I suppose after a while even Obama might start wondering why his staff have been booking him in smaller and smaller venues. It might get obvious when they get down to the "circle of chairs" level. Still, the teleprompter will have to have it's place of prominence.

Posted by: ef at October 18, 2010 09:42 AM (c7Pp2)

17 Every time I flush I get a "Probable Democrat" Tidy Bowl blue. Should I vote anyways?

Posted by: t-bird at October 18, 2010 09:43 AM (FcR7P)

18 Man, you should have seen the Anna Little (R) Frank Pallone (D-ouchebag) debate in NJ-6 last night. Pallone was rocked back on his heels.

Posted by: Z as in Jersey at October 18, 2010 09:43 AM (kZT4X)

19
A shoe at Obama?

Did he want him to sign it?

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 18, 2010 09:43 AM (gM4zK)

20 PA 4 is going to the Dems, even though we are an R+ district

Posted by: Ben at October 18, 2010 09:44 AM (wuv1c)

21 Hmm...let's see you have you have a net gain of 68 plus 43 tossups. 70% of the tossups would be around 30 makng the total GOP pickup 98. I may have to adjust my prediction down a few but not much.

Posted by: Rocks at October 18, 2010 09:44 AM (Q1lie)

22 Excuse me, Mr. Obama, who is the slurpee sucker?

A pic you can't miss!

Posted by: momma at October 18, 2010 09:45 AM (penCf)

47 House, 8 Senate.

I'm trying, I really am, but I still don't think we'll break 50 in the House. But let's bring it on, morons- November 3 I'd love to be called a fainthearted pusillanimous pencil-dicked milquetoast.

Well, no, I wouldn't. But bring it on anyway.

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 18, 2010 09:45 AM (SCcgT)

24 we've got a state called "Chicagoland" now? Are we really getting close to 57? I think the Demotards have added Ry'leh, Lemuria and Nim in an effort to expand their base. Plus, the House seat for Dunwich is likely to flip to Whatley (D-Shoggoth).

Posted by: George Orwell at October 18, 2010 09:45 AM (AZGON)

25 The geographic impact is pretty striking. With so many of the democrat's wins coming from dense, coastal districts, you'd wonder how the aren't the ones viewed as the "regional" party.

Posted by: ef at October 18, 2010 09:46 AM (c7Pp2)

great news for your VFW'ers out there.

The VFW has dissolved the VFW-PAC, over at blackfive

Posted by: Ben at October 18, 2010 09:46 AM (wuv1c)

Dayum! I think this post breaks the record for something. What that something is, I don't know.

Great work, CAC!

Posted by: ErikW at October 18, 2010 09:47 AM (Zlwx3)

28 IA-3 should be leans or repub pick-up. Bosworth is toast.

Posted by: Joe Meyer at October 18, 2010 09:48 AM (JNqU9)

CAC, this is doplar radar style eye candy on the political front. Good work and great new idea on the graphics.

Posted by: journolist at October 18, 2010 09:49 AM (O/NP5)

30 November 3 I'd love to be called a fainthearted pusillanimous pencil-dicked milquetoast.

We could do it now, if you'd like to get it out of the way.

Posted by: Methos at October 18, 2010 09:49 AM (Ew1k4)

31 Never saw a map with "Magenta" on it. Excellent work...

Posted by: Olliander at October 18, 2010 09:51 AM (6uiF7)

32 27

great news for your VFW'ers out there.

The VFW has dissolved the VFW-PAC, over at blackfive

Posted by: Ben at October 18, 2010 01:46 PM (wuv1c)

Actually, the National Commander Dissolved the PAC Board.

"Meanwhile, under the authority granted to me as Commander-in-Chief in section 619 of the VFW National By-Laws and under section 620 of the Manual of Procedure, I am withdrawing all PAC appointments effective October 15, 2010."

Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at October 18, 2010 09:51 AM (BOAqG)

33 We are only tracking offensive House races, vulnerable Democrat incumbents, and we are seeing a gross pickup of 82 seats out of 125 possibles.

Posted by: motionview at October 18, 2010 09:52 AM (zRbkQ)

34 Ras says 55 CAC says 61. I'll go with CAC.

Posted by: Vic at October 18, 2010 09:52 AM (/jbAw)

35 I want to see Barney Frank unemployed and living in a dumpster.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at October 18, 2010 09:52 AM (bvfVF)

36 Every time I flush I get a "Probable Democrat" Tidy Bowl blue. Should I vote anyways?

Posted by: t-bird at October 18, 2010 01:43 PM (FcR7P)

Sounds like a sign from the heavens. Give up hope, I already have.

Posted by: Greg! at October 18, 2010 09:52 AM (Zlwx3)

CAC you indicated :

GOP BARELY FLIP- 41
GOP MOD FLIP- 19
GOP LIKELY FLIP- 11

The above adds up to 71 but you are saying a "net gain of 68?"

Posted by: journolist at October 18, 2010 09:53 AM (O/NP5)

38 LOL, look what my district is doing to the one to the east.

Posted by: Mama AJ, Louisiana #4 at October 18, 2010 09:54 AM (XdlcF)

39 Looks like tonight is a good night to commence Round 2 of money drops for conservative candidates ... in all likelihood I'll be late to the ONT if I get there at all.

Posted by: ya2daup at October 18, 2010 09:54 AM (UzjcV)

40
did you subtract the 3 we're gonna lose?

Cao is gonna lose, and there are two others, I believe.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 18, 2010 09:55 AM (gM4zK)

41 Great work, CAC. I love maps, I am weird that way, every book should have a map of something.

Anyway, America, please, please make this happen. Remember how pissed you were about cornhusker kickback, louisiana purchase, 3 AM amendments, the stupak gang, etc.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 18, 2010 09:55 AM (ruu60)

What's up with OK-2? Who's the lying Democrat there?

A lot, I mean a lot of welfare cheats in that part of the state.

Posted by: Soona at October 18, 2010 09:57 AM (HsoiQ)

43 25 we've got a state called "Chicagoland" now? Are we really getting close to 57?

I think the Demotards have added Ry'leh, Lemuria and Nim in an effort to expand their base. Plus, the House seat for Dunwich is likely to flip to Whatley (D-Shoggoth).

Posted by: George Orwell at October 18, 2010 01:45 PM (AZGON)

Hey, just a minute there -- R'lyeh, Lemuria, and Nim are nice places. Respectable. Don't go lumping us in with a political cesspool like Chicagoland as some sort of Dem hangout.

Posted by: cthulhu at October 18, 2010 09:57 AM (/0IOT)

44 Hey, just a minute there -- R'lyeh, Lemuria, and Nim are nice places. Respectable. Don't go lumping us in with a political cesspool like Chicagoland as some sort of Dem hangout. You must admit there is something distinctly... non-Euclidean about Demotard voting patterns...

Posted by: George Orwell at October 18, 2010 10:00 AM (AZGON)

45 42 Great work, CAC. I love maps, I am weird that way, every book should have a map of something.

Anyway, America, please, please make this happen. Remember how pissed you were about cornhusker kickback, louisiana purchase, 3 AM amendments, the stupak gang, etc.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 18, 2010 01:55 PM (ruu60)

And don't forget Pelosi's total misuse of military aircraft, a little plane called a Gulfstream 550 that costs around $50M. Pelosi's racked up oh, about $2.1M in taxpayer expenses in 2yrs flying around on these military planes, her, and her husband, son and grand kids have taken many trips. Nice.

Posted by: journolist at October 18, 2010 10:00 AM (O/NP5)

46 The geographic impact is pretty striking.

Reminder to vote for Republicans for state assembly/legislature...census year = redistricting.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 18, 2010 10:02 AM (Vz9lf)

47 I guess we can draw maps that correlate with polls until the cows come home. But nothing can predict voter turnout. That's going to be the key.

Posted by: Soona at October 18, 2010 10:03 AM (HsoiQ)

48 Journolist a thousand thanks for catching that. I was compiling these all last night and around 4am my math got weird. Rechecked and edited, still massive gains. There are 435 seats well over a hundred of them in play to one degree or another. I apologize for the occasional err here and there.

Posted by: CAC at October 18, 2010 10:03 AM (lV4Fs)

49 Excuse me, Mr. Obama, who is the slurpee sucker?

A pic you can't miss!

Posted by: momma at October 18, 2010 01:45 PM (penCf)

Looks like Big Mo has a bad case of suckers cramp. Wonder who she's been servicing, we know it's not Barry.

Posted by: Badonkeydonk at October 18, 2010 10:03 AM (YYkW9)

50 We're gonna see a whole new brand of crazy in the lame duck session of Congress. And in 2011, a meteor strike of executive orders to agencies under the direction of the White House, like the EPA. A flurry of orders, all small and all underreported by the MFM. Yet put together, they will add up to crap-and-tax and the closest thing this nation has seen to Soviet style command and control over the economy.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 18, 2010 10:04 AM (AZGON)

51 Way too optimistic on what's in play in California, IMHO, but otherwise a great set of maps.

Posted by: Jeff B. at October 18, 2010 10:06 AM (NjYDy)

Mmmmm look at the pretty colors.

My district NJ5 is a safe R...Rock on Scott Garret.

Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 10:07 AM (pr+up)

53 CAC, this is the best birthday present ever!

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 18, 2010 10:07 AM (lxuuX)

@23

That's her O-face....

Posted by: Bulldog in Kansas at October 18, 2010 10:07 AM (z1C58)

Virginia 03 for me. Lookee there... dark blue.

Bobby Scott. Marxist and seemingly untouchable.

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 18, 2010 10:09 AM (SCcgT)

56 Mmmmm look at the pretty colors. My district NJ5 is a safe R...Rock on Scott Garret. Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 02:07 PM (pr+up) hey neighbor

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 10:09 AM (0GFWk)

57 and around 4am my math got weird.

Math is racist, anyway.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 18, 2010 10:10 AM (Vz9lf)

And in 2011, a meteor strike of executive orders to agencies under the direction of the White House, like the EPA. A flurry of orders, all small and all underreported by the MFM. Yet put together, they will add up to crap-and-tax and the closest thing this nation has seen to Soviet style command and control over the economy. - Posted by: George Orwell at October 18, 2010 02:04 PM (AZGON)

If the Pubbies have the stones to defund every agency that receives an EO, it should be OK. And it will be that much more ammunition in our arsenal when 2012 rolls around. We're not going anywhere, and the natives are ANGRY - BamBam hasn't figured that out yet, and he isn't likely to anytime soon.

That's the advantage adults have over children.....

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 18, 2010 10:10 AM (lxuuX)

59 57 Mmmmm look at the pretty colors.

My district NJ5 is a safe R...Rock on Scott Garret.

Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 02:07 PM (pr+up)

hey neighbor

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 02:09 PM (0GFWk)

Hellooo, I'm Sussex County, Hardyston.

Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 10:11 AM (pr+up)

60 If the Pubbies have the stones to defund every agency that receives an EO, it should be OK. Congressional comity is our great tradition. We wouldn't want to spoil it by rejecting our friends on the other side of the aisle.

Posted by: Mitch McConnell at October 18, 2010 10:13 AM (AZGON)

61 Hellooo, I'm Sussex County, Hardyston. Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 02:11 PM (pr+up) Actually i never, until now, knew the shape on the district. I'm in Paramus.

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 10:13 AM (0GFWk)

I just saw this, so for those slow like me:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his Republican challenger Sharron Angle remain locked in a tight race for the U.S. Senate in Nevada in the first survey following last Thursday nightÂ’s debate.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Angle with 50% to ReidÂ’s 47%.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 18, 2010 10:13 AM (ruu60)

63 It's like you guys want the sea levels to rise.

Posted by: B. Hussein Obama at October 18, 2010 10:14 AM (AZGON)

64

It's a cloud-blog.

All of us are more moronic than any of us!

(great work, CAC)

Posted by: s'moron at October 18, 2010 10:15 AM (UaxA0)

65 Actually i never, until now, knew the shape on the district. I'm in Paramus.

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 02:13 PM (0GFWk)

Yeah, its funny how they carve out southern Passaic and Bergan County. Its totally done by economic/racial demographics. Racists!!!

Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 10:16 AM (pr+up)

66 49 Journolist a thousand thanks for catching that.
I was compiling these all last night and around 4am my math got weird. Rechecked and edited, still massive gains.

There are 435 seats well over a hundred of them in play to one degree or another. I apologize for the occasional err here and there.

Posted by: CAC at October 18, 2010 02:03 PM (lV4Fs)

CAC, you are awesome and I could never do what you do. Thanks for all of your work here, it is really, truly appreciated and quite amazing.

Posted by: journolist at October 18, 2010 10:16 AM (O/NP5)

67 I think the storm is going to be bigger than people realize. VOTE!!!

Posted by: Soona at October 18, 2010 10:17 AM (HsoiQ)

68 After this last little dust up with the EPA pulling a mountain top mine permit WV-3 is not a likely Dem. seat anymore miner's down here are pissed.But other than that great job CAC.

Posted by: TEE866 at October 18, 2010 10:19 AM (nO7Mi)

69 It's like you guys want the sea levels to rise.

Posted by: B. Hussein Obama at October 18, 2010 02:14 PM (AZGON)

Well, if it drowns the coastal blue areas...

Posted by: ErikW at October 18, 2010 10:20 AM (Zlwx3)

70
42.

Remember that number. It's not just the answer to life, it's the number of seats we'll gain in the House. Mark my words.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 18, 2010 10:20 AM (gM4zK)

71 An interesting question that a person posed to me a couple of nights ago: If the prez takes his trip to India right after elections (which he knows is not going to go his way) and decides to set up shop, let's say, in either India or maybe even Indonesia and run the US presidency from a foreign location, would that cause a Constitutional crisis?

Posted by: Soona at October 18, 2010 10:24 AM (HsoiQ)

Heh! I just read on Michelle Malkin's site, that Joe and Jill Biden were booed at the Phillies game when they were shown on the Fanavision screen. Also, Joe pulled in a big crowd of 80 in Wisconsin where he was doing a fundraiser for 2 Dem congress critters.

Posted by: runningrn at October 18, 2010 02:20 PM (qY2Vc)

runningrn, now that's funny. I think the tide is turning!

Posted by: journolist at October 18, 2010 10:24 AM (O/NP5)

73
You might be asking how I came up with the number 42.

I just glanced at all the House races in 2008 that we're lost by the Republican by < 6%. It comes out to about 35, but I added 7 that were close enough.

So 42 is a generous estimate. But I figure we're gonna get a 5-6 point bump this year due to the Tea Party and anti-Democrat sentiment.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 18, 2010 10:24 AM (gM4zK)

I wanna see Alan Grayson have to get a job at some Jewish senior center, where some old Israeli army vet stabs him in the eye with his catheder.

But it's OK if Pelosi wins her race. Worth it to see her have to lose her own personal Air Force jet and have to fly commercial.

Posted by: Kortezzi at October 18, 2010 10:25 AM (zAZNI)

75 Also, Joe pulled in a big crowd of 80 in Wisconsin where he was doing a fundraiser for 2 Dem congress critters.

The part where the rally was held a two-hour drive away from the districts of the candidates Biden was stumping for--in Milwaukee, which is commonly reviled outstate--was sheer genius. As we've come to expect from Joe.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 18, 2010 10:25 AM (Vz9lf)

76 Some of the California races look competitive, but with legalizing marijuana on the ballot the Democrat turnout will be strong. Fiorina and Whitman don't stand a chance. Unfortunately, there will be few if any GOP pickups.

Posted by: Greg at October 18, 2010 10:27 AM (7+pP9)

77 What's up with OK-2? Who's the lying Democrat there?

Posted by: logprof at October 18, 2010 01:35 PM (BP6Z1)

Dan Boren. Sits on the board of the NRA. Daddy is former governor. Name recognition galore. I am in his district and know a lot of people that would like to see him gone, but his base is too large. About as moderate as you can get, but wears a blue suit and votes the party line much of the time.

Posted by: Andrew at October 18, 2010 10:27 AM (sCm5+)

78 But it's OK if Pelosi wins her race. Worth it to see her have to lose her own personal Air Force jet and have to fly commercial go Greyhound.

FIFY

Posted by: fixerupper at October 18, 2010 10:27 AM (J5Hcw)

would that cause a Constitutional crisis?

Posted by: Soona at October 18, 2010 02:24 PM (HsoiQ)

Soona, I'm thinking it would be a boon for party planners and liquor sales to have Obama out of the country.

Posted by: journolist at October 18, 2010 10:28 AM (O/NP5)

Nothing like a series of maps like this to remind people just how gerrymandered so much of the country truly is...

^{Yeah, I'm lookin' at you, AZ-2!}

Posted by: reason at October 18, 2010 10:30 AM (wEYaf)

81 Well, i'm sold

Posted by: AoSHQ's Truman North at October 18, 2010 10:30 AM (G5JPI)

82 _{Is Kucinich in trouble? Weekly standard says he is. Money bomb Corrigan}

Posted by: Joe Meyer at October 18, 2010 10:32 AM (JNqU9)

^{Yeah, I'm lookin' at you, AZ-2!}

Posted by: reason at October 18, 2010 02:30 PM (wEYaf)

LMAO, that is pathetic! That crap needs to end

Posted by: Lt.Kilgore at October 18, 2010 10:34 AM (FIDMq)

84
Obama is like the Chilean miner -- he keeps digging and digging until the tunnel collapses.

Then he sits there until Americans with intelligence and practical experience rescue him.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 18, 2010 10:34 AM (gM4zK)

Heh! I just read on Michelle Malkin's site, that Joe and Jill Biden were booed at the Phillies game when they were shown on the Fanavision screen.

I read that...and I'm ordering a "I'm not angry, I'm from Philly" shirt for my husband, lol.

Nothing like a series of maps like this to remind people just how gerrymandered so much of the country truly is...

Obscenely gerrymandered in some cases.

Posted by: Mama AJ, Louisiana #4 at October 18, 2010 10:36 AM (XdlcF)

86 Pelosi and Biden in 2 years.

Posted by: journolist at October 18, 2010 10:38 AM (O/NP5)

87 Some of the California races look competitive, but with legalizing marijuana on the ballot the Democrat turnout will be strong.

A lot of us conservative folks are in favor or legalizing marijuana, too. Not just a bunch of Democrats voting for that.

Posted by: Original Mikey at October 18, 2010 10:38 AM (dOatv)

88 I want to see Barney Frank unemployed and living in a dumpster.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at October 18, 2010 01:52 PM (bvfVF)

I want to see him gone more than I want my own D congressman gone....but YAY on CT-4 being moved to GOP pickup!

Posted by: Tami at October 18, 2010 10:39 AM (VuLos)

Mama AJ, Louisiana #4

I wonder if the fine residents of LA-5 realize that they have a collective squeakhole, and that they are perpetually getting dorked up it by your district.

Posted by: reason at October 18, 2010 10:40 AM (wEYaf)

90 UN FUCKING BELIEVABLE!

GREAT WORK! RCP going to steal it? Or HA?

Posted by: Kemp at October 18, 2010 10:41 AM (AQxTm)

91 NJ-6 should be getting to at least purple....

Posted by: Olliander at October 18, 2010 10:42 AM (6uiF7)

Some freaky stuff going on amongst TX 11, 19, and 13, too...

Posted by: reason at October 18, 2010 10:43 AM (wEYaf)

93 Uh, Where's NJ?

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 18, 2010 10:43 AM (YBbxJ)

94 Excuse me, Mr. Obama, who is the slurpee sucker?

A pic you can't miss!

Posted by: momma at October 18, 2010 01:45 PM (penCf)

That is a photoshopper's drema opportunity

Posted by: beedubya at October 18, 2010 10:44 AM (AnTyA)

95 Oh. Found it...

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 18, 2010 10:45 AM (YBbxJ)

96 What's going to happen is that this will be the high water mark. You're starting to see it slowly: Panic.

The rank-and-file will get all fired up, but the candidates will see the polls, see themselves at 48% and have nothing to lose with releasing the crazy!

That will turn some people off and the races that were going Dem will become more solidly R.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 18, 2010 10:49 AM (3wPsb)

97 not only does the chilean miner analogy work for president Obama, so does the one where he says the republicans are the empire in the empire strikes back. luckily, president Obama is like luke skywalker and joe biden is hans solo. together they will restore justice to this country and the evil empire of the republicans will demolished for ever. lol just wait until it goes viral you republicans don't have a chance. haha

Posted by: palin steele at October 18, 2010 10:49 AM (E0EDC)

98 I want to see Barney Frank unemployed and living in a dumpster.

I want to see a dumpster unemployed and living in Barney Frank.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 18, 2010 10:49 AM (zDAlI)

99 A pic you can't miss!

Cute baby. Hopefully his full diaper leaked on her.

Posted by: Annabelle at October 18, 2010 10:52 AM (pWgNR)

100 I would love to see AZ-7 flip, (Grijalva called for a boycott of the State, and McClung is a solid challenger; but this was regarded as a save Dem seat not very long ago). This is the type of district that we can flip in a huge wave.

Posted by: Sean Vannity at October 18, 2010 10:54 AM (UpdGw)

101

Virginia 03 for me. Lookee there... dark blue.

Bobby Scott. Marxist and seemingly untouchable.

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller

That is one of those "forever blue" districts, and it was created to be that way. Virginia needed a "black" majority district to get Justice Dept approval of redistricting, thus the 3rd was created for Bobby Scott. Once that was created, the GOP was able to make sure that other districts would elect less Dems. I'd rather have the one blue 3rd and all the other districts competitive.

Posted by: MrCaniac at October 18, 2010 10:56 AM (aaULJ)

102 IA-3 should be leans or repub pick-up. Bosworth is toast.

Posted by: Joe Meyer at October 18, 2010 01:48 PM (JNqU9)

I share your enthusiasm, but many polls still have Boswell up, some by as much as 10 points. I'm sure that's what CAC is using in his analysis.

Braley in IA1 is in a dead heat, and Loebsack isn't up by much. Iowa could go all red in this cycle, it's doable. My district (Latham) and IA5 (King) are safe, so the efforts have to go to the other 3 districts, as well as the money.

Boswell is running ad after ad, all negative. He knows he's in a fight, and personally I think he's toast. We just have to get all the polls to agree with us!

Posted by: Jay in Ames at October 18, 2010 10:59 AM (UEEex)

103 96 Uh, Where's NJ?

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 18, 2010 02:43 PM (YBbxJ)

"Somewhere between New York and Pennsylvania."

- John Dickinson, in "1776" [http://tinyurl.com/1776musical]

Posted by: Mary in LA at October 18, 2010 11:03 AM (NGf/6)

104 I want to see the maps after the election, so that we can de-annex the blue districts from the union. I'm really tired of these obviously socialist "high population" districts dictating to the rest of the nation.

Posted by: Soona at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (HsoiQ)

105 69/11.

Posted by: blogforce one at October 18, 2010 11:13 AM (hjn1y)

106 89 Some of the California races look competitive, but with legalizing marijuana on the ballot the Democrat turnout will be strong.

A lot of us conservative folks are in favor or legalizing marijuana, too. Not just a bunch of Democrats voting for that.

I don't think "conservative" means what you think it means. And with legalizing marijuana on the ballot, the toker turnout will be at Taco Bell scarfing XXL Chulupas.

Posted by: Otis Criblecoblis at October 18, 2010 11:59 AM (kJXs1)

107 Oh, and CAC, you seem to have CA-29 as a GOP safe hold. A nice thought, but it's presently held by a Dem. Did you mean to indicate safe Dem, or is there any hope at all for Colbert?

Posted by: Otis Criblecoblis at October 18, 2010 12:01 PM (kJXs1)

108 NY-3, 23, 26 and 29 are redder than 19, which was supposed to be the easiest pick-up but had Democrats working hard on defense. Glad to see Republicans winning in 19 and outperforming in four other House races, especially with the gubernatorial and Senate races being such disasters.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 18, 2010 12:18 PM (mHQ7T)

109 Actually, DioGuardi's campaign is more a tragedy than a disaster, since he is a good candidate with no support in a race that should have been competitive.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 18, 2010 12:22 PM (mHQ7T)

110 Missouri 3 (Dick Gephardt's old seat) could very well go Republican. The Republican, Ed Martin, is running a strong campaign and campaigning hard in St. Louis City, which most Republican candidates write off. The number of his signs in city yards is astonishing. The incumbent is Russ Carnahan, the brother of Robin Carnahan, who's about to get shellacked by Roy Blunt in the Senate race. People are tired of the Carnahan dynasty, and disgusted about the wind farm shenanigans. It'll be a tight race, but Martin may win.

Posted by: Palandine at October 18, 2010 12:22 PM (+ho3C)

111 #113 CA29 is shaded blue on the map here Otis. Perhaps you are looking at the large CA-26 right next to it (Dreier) which is indeed Republican (its my current congressional district)

Posted by: CAC at October 18, 2010 12:24 PM (Gr1V1)

112 MA-3 we have the idiot McGovern who said the Constitution is wrong. I'm betting we pick it up, Marty Lamb is very well received around here and people are PISSED at McGovern. www.martyforcongress.com Send him a few bucks. McGovern is to the left of Pelosi, Reid, and Bawney.

Posted by: bikeguy at October 18, 2010 12:27 PM (kYc9Y)

113

This was good, but it could have been GREAT if the author supplied a handy Key to all the colors used, and for every map.

Posted by: Never Mind at October 18, 2010 01:38 PM (1VLBu)

114 Looks like 40 to 50 Democratic seats would be in just the LA, San Francisco or New York metro areas. So, something like 1/4 to 1/3 of their caucus, depending on how bad they get hit, would be commuters in just those three cities.

Well, all politics is local,

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 18, 2010 01:43 PM (6HapM)

115 "A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Angle with 50% to ReidÂ’s 47%."

Harry can't get to fifty; he is toast.

Posted by: Foole In The Rain at October 18, 2010 01:47 PM (pELFl)

116 with legalizing marijuana on the ballot the Democrat turnout will be strong.

Original Mikey

"advocates legalizing marijuana" and "motivated voter" are contradictory terms....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 18, 2010 01:48 PM (6HapM)

117 well this is a very optimistic set of maps
I don't think it will come to this but it is nice to do some wishing

Posted by: chemjeff at October 18, 2010 02:38 PM (E97ku)

118 CAC - that's a tremendous amount of work you've done. Good job!

Posted by: prettypinkfluffypanties at October 18, 2010 04:03 PM (pdXSj)

119 Mmmmm look at the pretty colors.

My district NJ5 is a safe R...Rock on Scott Garret.

Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 02:07 PM (pr+up)

hey neighbor hey looks like we need a Warren Co. morons meetup.

Posted by: Cu'Chulainn at October 18, 2010 04:16 PM (7wbR1)

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