October 13, 2010
— CAC After reviewing the new polling, money, and generic ballot data, I am in agreement with the Huffington Post. We aren't looking at 47 seats, I was wrong.
We are looking at 60+ (specifically 61 now).
Since the last update I have moved 14 Democratic seats from toss-up to GOP pickup:
OH-6, OH-18, IL-17, CO-7, CA-11, CA-47, PA-12, WV-1, TX-23, CT-5, AL-2, TN-4, GA-8, and NY-19.
Another 21 Dem-held seats have moved onto the toss-up map now:
IA-1, IA-2, MI-15, OH-9, WI-3, NY-4, MA-4, MA-6, ME-1, ME-2, ID-1, OR-4, PA-13, PA-17, NJ-12, MN-1, KY-3, KY-6, WV-3, CA-18, NY-20.
Currently 48 Dem-held seats are tossups compared to just 2 GOP-held in the same category.
This now pushes the total # of vulnerable Democratic seats to 109.
As a bonus...
I have included what I call the “firewall” list for Democrats this cycle.
If these start melting down, one would expect a large number of seats at said wall to also fall down, and we are onto the next firewall.
Firewall #1 was the hypothetical buffer the Democrats were working on a few weeks ago (back when they were publicizing their triage operation). As many of those seats (OH-1, AZ-1, VA-5, etc) have already imploded there isn't a point in even listing them-needless to say most if not all are colored red here.
Firewall #2:
MA-10, CT-4, CT-5, NY-1, NY-13, NY-19, NY-24,NY-25, PA-4, PA-12, VA-9, VA-11, WV-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-18, IN-2, IL-8, IL-17, NC-2, NC-11, TN-4, FL-22, GA-2, GA-8, AL-2, MN-8, IA-3, MO-4, TX-23,
CO-7, NM-1, AZ-7, CA-11, CA-18, CA-20, CA-47, OR-5, NY-20, WA-2, WA-9
Firewall #3 are the seats just added today as tossups.
Firewall #4 (the final batch before 1894 gets one-upped):
MA-3, MA-5, RI-1, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, NJ-6, MD-5, OH-10, IL-2, IL-9, MI-5, AR-4, NC-4, MO-3, NM-3, TN-5, OK-2, CA-36, CA-37, UT-2, OR-1, FL-20, TX-27, NY-27, and CA-51 (which I currently show as a tossup due to a massive voter drive in Chula Vista and the typical voter drop off hurting the Democrat without anyone batting an eye yet).
If all of these seats flipped and Republicans managed to hang onto all their tossups and even the seats currently leaning Democrat (LA-2 and DE-AL) we would be looking at the maximum Demplosion of flipping 135 seats, beating the 1894 deluge by 5.
And now I leave you to your vapor-induced swooning or eeyore-induced whinng...
Posted by: CAC at
07:11 AM
| Comments (126)
Post contains 406 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: Donna at October 13, 2010 07:13 AM (/9pqf)
Posted by: Voltaires Crack at October 13, 2010 07:14 AM (TZI/v)
Tear Down This Firewall!!!
Posted by: Peaches at October 13, 2010 07:15 AM (zxpIo)
/not that picking up 70 seats in the House would be so bad...
Posted by: Original Mikey at October 13, 2010 07:15 AM (dOatv)
Posted by: joncelli at October 13, 2010 07:16 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Penfold at October 13, 2010 07:16 AM (1PeEC)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy, channelling Lolcatz at October 13, 2010 07:17 AM (3jxR/)
Posted by: 18-1 at October 13, 2010 07:17 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: Voltaires Crack at October 13, 2010 11:14 AM (TZI/v)
I'll be endorsing Crist tomorrow.
Posted by: The Creepy Leave Britney Alone Guy at October 13, 2010 07:18 AM (7BU4a)
I'm in IL-2.
Haven't voted in about ten years, since no race I've been eligible to vote for has been close to a toss-up.
My major political activity has been sending money to candidates outside Illinois.
But I'm in for this one.
Posted by: Michael at October 13, 2010 07:19 AM (FC2+c)
Posted by: opus at October 13, 2010 07:19 AM (IebeI)
Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at October 13, 2010 07:21 AM (PLvLS)
Posted by: Michael at October 13, 2010 11:19 AM (FC2+c)
You're in IL? You can make up for all the other times you missed this year alone!
Vote early and often...
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 13, 2010 07:21 AM (3jxR/)
The House had approximately 350 seats in 1894, so about 31, 32% of the seats were won by the Republicans that year. So yes, we would need to win about 165 seats to equal the winning percentage of House seats for 1894.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 07:23 AM (9hSKh)
...we are still 3 weeks out from the election ..
Early voting has already started in many areas, starts down here on the 18th. We're peaking at just the right time.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 13, 2010 07:23 AM (3jxR/)
Posted by: dagny at October 13, 2010 07:23 AM (E1Swa)
Posted by: opus at October 13, 2010 11:19 AM (IebeI)
Actually, they do seem to be doing exactly that.
Posted by: Editor at October 13, 2010 07:24 AM (pUfK9)
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 07:25 AM (p302b)
I imagine Nancy Pelosi's face would melt like one of the Nazis at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark.
In this situation, what happens to the botox, stitches, and staples?
Posted by: dagny at October 13, 2010 07:25 AM (E1Swa)
Your concern is valid, but CAC's optimism is on at least some solid ground, given the current circumstances. The polls are going to tighten between now and Nov 2.
Remember though, we are the WAVE! If you want to work off your pessimism, try that call 40 people GOTV thingy.
/If we work for this and shoot for the moon, we can definitely settle for landing amidst the stars if we should miss.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 07:25 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 07:28 AM (p302b)
Posted by: jimmytheleg at October 13, 2010 07:28 AM (i92Ba)
They'll be more concentrated too, thus even more nutty.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 07:28 AM (9hSKh)
Blow the bridges, dam the rivers, cut the power.
They'll come around when they're ready.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 13, 2010 07:28 AM (5aa4z)
In this situation, what happens to the botox, stitches, and staples?
In that case, using Harry Reid as a human shield is perfectly acceptable.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 13, 2010 07:29 AM (3jxR/)
Yes but you see taking back the House just makes the R's weaker, according to Prezdint Prissy Pants.
Obama predicted that his political rivals would either be chastened by falling short of their electoral goals or burdened with the new responsibility that comes from achieving them.
warning nyt linky
Posted by: Dang Straights at October 13, 2010 07:29 AM (fx8sm)
23,
Doing that and working in the CD next to mine, TX-17. So bad want to get rid of Chet Edwards. Unfortunately I'm in Ron Paul's district, and apparently we can't fix stupid in this dristrict.
Posted by: opus at October 13, 2010 07:29 AM (IebeI)
Posted by: zombiemaryjokopechne at October 13, 2010 07:30 AM (uG7PE)
Isn't it a tradition that Providence mayors be arrested during or right after the end of their term for graft and corruption? I grew up in RI, and it seemed that certain mayorship (particularly Cranston and Providence, along with the governor) were always being arrested for corruption and graft, misusing the police detail to beat the ex's boyfriend, stuff like that.
Posted by: Penfold at October 13, 2010 07:30 AM (1PeEC)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at October 13, 2010 07:30 AM (eOXTH)
Posted by: BruceinSoCal at October 13, 2010 07:31 AM (J6hTO)
Posted by: RushBabe at October 13, 2010 07:31 AM (a3Z62)
Posted by: nine coconuts at October 13, 2010 07:31 AM (DHNp4)
Posted by: zombiemaryjokopechne at October 13, 2010 07:33 AM (uG7PE)
Posted by: Stalin Peel at October 13, 2010 07:34 AM (QAKOX)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at October 13, 2010 07:34 AM (eOXTH)
Posted by: jimmytheleg at October 13, 2010 07:34 AM (i92Ba)
Posted by: what's the matter with CA? at October 13, 2010 07:36 AM (DHNp4)
Posted by: Jean at October 13, 2010 07:36 AM (bh8+e)
Kudos to you then, sir. Sorry to hear that you're in Ron Paul's (!!!) district. Please, forgive my chiding.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 07:37 AM (9hSKh)
Great! Did you download it off the PS3 network?
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 07:38 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: El Guapo 2010 Campaign Manager at October 13, 2010 07:39 AM (rkCMG)
Posted by: jimmytheleg at October 13, 2010 07:39 AM (i92Ba)
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 11:28 AM (9hSKh)
I don't know anyone who voted Republican!!! How could they have picked up 100 seats?
Posted by: Some San Fran Liberal at October 13, 2010 07:39 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: Rocks at October 13, 2010 07:40 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: El Guapo 2010 Campaign Manager at October 13, 2010 07:41 AM (rkCMG)
Posted by: anonymous former O'Donnell staffer at October 13, 2010 07:41 AM (zRbkQ)
Posted by: Dang Straights at October 13, 2010 11:29 AM (fx8sm)
Have had several dems/libs tell me that BO is fine with the republicans "taking some seats" since the more seats they take, "the more of a chance he has at a second term". The libs/dems maintain that he will be able to use the "republicans stopped me" to full effect and it is the rumored replacement for "bush did it, bush did it all"
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 07:41 AM (p302b)
Posted by: Joe "Forrest Gump" Biden at October 13, 2010 07:42 AM (3jxR/)
Spock-like President reveals that, “there’s no such thing as shovel-ready projects”. In related news, same Super Genius commiserates that, despite his 2008 assertions that RUNNING for President qualified one to BE President, the American people still don't get it that it's still true:
“The mythology has emerged somehow that we ran this flawless campaign, I never made a mistake, that we were master communicators, everything worked in lockstep. And somehow now, as president, things are messy and they don’t always work as planned and people are mad at us,” Mr. Obama said. “That’s not how I look at stuff, because I remember what the campaign was like. And it was just as messy and just as difficult. And there were all sorts of moments when our supporters lost hope, and it looked like we weren’t going to win. And we’re going through that same period here.”
Link to article at NYT: http://tiny.cc/yl09i
Posted by: Damiano at October 13, 2010 07:42 AM (PA722)
Posted by: zombiemaryjokopechne at October 13, 2010 07:44 AM (uG7PE)
Posted by: Dang Straights at October 13, 2010 11:29 AM (fx8sm)
Fricken guy is stuck in a delusion. Needs to score some better cocaine...
or something.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at October 13, 2010 07:45 AM (r1h5M)
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 11:41 AM (p302b)
I don't think it will work. He's toast unless he can somehow get Ross Perot to run again and split the vote like he did for Clinton. I think he's trying to with Bloomberg.
Posted by: Rocks at October 13, 2010 07:46 AM (Q1lie)
Shoot, with my Internet connection, that will take forever. I remember trying to download the GoW 3 demo via the PS3 network. That wasn't a gig, perhaps 500MB, give or take a few hundred MB. I set it up to download right before going into the lab. 14 hours later, I saw the progress was only....10%.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 07:46 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: nine coconuts at October 13, 2010 07:47 AM (DHNp4)
That just gave me a great idea.
You know you buy a DVD player or a microwave oven and the box has nice pictures on it and lists all its features?
We need to make a Barack Obama Box -- a bunch of mice pictures and a list of all his features.
-- Will fix economy!
-- Everyone gets a job!
-- Free Health Care!
-- No More Terrorism!
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 13, 2010 07:49 AM (uFokq)
As well as the pudding. Don't try the dipping act with Diet Mt. Dew and Fabreeze though- it really, really burns.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 07:50 AM (9hSKh)
In the chess game of politics, this will forever more be known as the Alan Grayson gambit:
A summary of the strategy: Why just tip over the king, tip them all over in a fit of insanity.
via Dan Greenfield
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at October 13, 2010 07:50 AM (r1h5M)
How could I forget RI politics? Suffering under a democrat controlled assembly since I was child, the teacher's union extending my summer vacations into late September every two years, watching sequential governors get arrested and acquitted of graft and corruption and wondering why the RI AG could not seem to convict a ham sandwich if it was a member of a political party. Good times. But the most outstanding politician in RI for corruption and abuse of power was Buddy Cianci. I tell people in NY about him and they look at me with disbelief.
Posted by: Penfold at October 13, 2010 07:53 AM (1PeEC)
The post-election plan is to blame the Republicans for Obama's failures, whether the GOP wins or not. That was always the plan.
1) Ruin America
2) Blame Republicans in order to retain power
3) Reform America into a Euro-Chinese socialist state.
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 13, 2010 07:53 AM (uFokq)
Posted by: nerdygirl at October 13, 2010 07:53 AM (uG7PE)
Posted by: Jean at October 13, 2010 07:54 AM (v4C0Z)
Or Mentos and Diet Coke. There is a bunch of lab reagents I shouldn't try either,
. Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 07:54 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: dagny at October 13, 2010 07:54 AM (E1Swa)
Posted by: alans at October 13, 2010 07:55 AM (frMli)
Posted by: nerdygirl at October 13, 2010 07:55 AM (uG7PE)
It reminds me of the tiny little ads in the back of fashion magazines that look tempting and then when you ask your mom about them she says "honey, you get what you pay for, those are scams, stay away from them"
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 07:55 AM (p302b)
Posted by: CDR M at October 13, 2010 11:53 AM (5I8G0)
Blue in the middle of red means either universities or state capitol.
Posted by: Rocks at October 13, 2010 07:57 AM (Q1lie)
I should say Morris was talking about House races on which the Rs should spend money. He wasn't saying a hundred would flip, but that a hundred were enough in play to try to win.
So I agree with those who say 50-70 is much more likely.
Posted by: Beagle at October 13, 2010 07:57 AM (sOtz/)
Posted by: Jose the Illegal at October 13, 2010 07:59 AM (tE8FB)
Posted by: Hatchet Five at October 13, 2010 08:00 AM (/lkKn)
If we don't gain what we hope, remember, the Democrats and the media will call it a victory... for them.
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 13, 2010 08:00 AM (0fzsA)
Ace made a prescient statement in this December 15, 2009 post:
The 50 or 60 Dems who will lose their seats won't be mourned, they'll be celebrated as martyrs to the cause, if by martyr you mean someone pulling down mid six to low seven figures as a lobbyist.
Posted by: phreshone at October 13, 2010 08:01 AM (1AnxB)
Posted by: CDR M at October 13, 2010 11:53 AM (5I8G0)
This area is known as the "Black belt" of NC. It is heavy farming and has a majority Black population left over from plantation days. Seriously.
Posted by: Kemp at October 13, 2010 08:02 AM (AQxTm)
This 94-second vid clip shows why Jerry Brown is a slimy cocksucker.
1) I didn't do it.
2) Even if I did do it, it's no big deal.
3) Republicans do it, too.
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 13, 2010 08:04 AM (uFokq)
Posted by: gesc at October 13, 2010 08:04 AM (1CQY3)
Re: 11
Isn't IL-2 Jesse Jackson Jr's district? Are enough people ticked off at JJJ to pull the lever for Issac Hayes??? That would be astonishing, given the sorry history of that district (JJJ, Mel Reyolds, Gus Savage.........what a bunch of losers).
Posted by: Boots at October 13, 2010 08:05 AM (neKzn)
Posted by: Jean at October 13, 2010 08:05 AM (dK0WB)
Tear Down This Firewall!!!
Posted by: Peaches at October 13, 2010 11:15 AM (zxpIo)
Peaches - I am going to promote him on the web asap!
Posted by: journolist at October 13, 2010 08:06 AM (O/NP5)
Posted by: Mr. Dave at October 13, 2010 08:07 AM (OBDWE)
Bad news out of Ohio.
Ras has Kasich up over Strickland by only three. Add in the margin of error and it's now considered a toss-up.
I don't get it.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 13, 2010 08:07 AM (pLTLS)
Posted by: journolist at October 13, 2010 08:07 AM (O/NP5)
link
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 08:08 AM (p302b)
Posted by: Count de Monet at October 13, 2010 08:08 AM (2g2ex)
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 08:10 AM (p302b)
What difference does it make if we just elect a bunch of RINOs?
The RINO's are being culled from the herd, as will any other squishes who think they can do as they please once elected, instead of what we demand. We will be holding their feet to the fire. And if they don't cooperate, they'll get tossed out, we'll rinse and repeat as often as necessary until we get the people we want in Washington.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 13, 2010 08:11 AM (3jxR/)
As well as the pudding. Don't try the dipping act with Diet Mt. Dew and Fabreeze though- it really, really burns.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 13, 2010 11:50 AM (9hSKh)
Kratos! I'm shocked that you would ever do anything so decadent. What's the world coming to?
Thought of you this morning when I saw that moonbatty Judith Miller on F&F talking about the counter-bioterror scientist who just died of cancer. She said, emphatically, there was no one to take his place. Way to tell our enemies our capabilities, ditz! Then she and the host wondered where his successor would come from. Oh, I don't know, maybe from the stellar (math and) science programs our schools are promoting?
Posted by: RushBabe at October 13, 2010 08:12 AM (a3Z62)
Posted by: g at October 13, 2010 08:13 AM (2I0rN)
Posted by: curious
Well, if you remember Australopithicus attending your family reunion, that would be correct. Aren't we all related in that respect?
question: should I denounce myself, or get evolution cred?
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 13, 2010 08:13 AM (R2fpr)
Peter king made some remarks yesterday about "working with cumo"...and he has really pissed the walmart crowd off.....
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 08:13 AM (p302b)
I bet I am missing a good joke. Have no idea what you just said.
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 08:14 AM (p302b)
Posted by: Hatchet Five at October 13, 2010 08:15 AM (/lkKn)
Posted by: Boots at October 13, 2010 08:16 AM (neKzn)
Bad news out of Ohio.
Ras has Kasich up over Strickland by only three. Add in the margin of error and it's now considered a toss-up.
I don't get it.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 13, 2010 12:07 PM (pLTLS)
Yesterday Rassmussen/Fox had him up by 5. Is there a new one already?
Posted by: robtr at October 13, 2010 08:18 AM (fwSHf)
Posted by: AnEyeoreDrivel at October 13, 2010 08:21 AM (swuwV)
"Well, if you remember Australopithicus attending your family reunion..."
Not in my family! Damned Australians and their giant big-eared squirrels that try to pass themselves off as bears.
Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at October 13, 2010 08:21 AM (HaYO4)
Posted by: dr kill at October 13, 2010 08:23 AM (FJQB5)
After all, 45% of likely voters still approve of Odipstick. Although 55% of 109 does equal 60 seats. Yes, I simplify things. Be the wave.
Posted by: Farmer Wolf at October 13, 2010 08:24 AM (ruu60)
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 08:26 AM (p302b)
wow do you ever find the toilet seat down?
Posted by: curious at October 13, 2010 11:56 AM (p302b)
Occassionally, but then it has pee on it. I always look before I sit.
Posted by: dagny at October 13, 2010 08:27 AM (E1Swa)
Posted by: Dan at October 13, 2010 08:43 AM (1jzSs)
Posted by: evil libertarian at October 13, 2010 08:44 AM (q1Tbv)
Posted by: Dan at October 13, 2010 08:44 AM (1jzSs)
Posted by: evil libertarian
I think that I do too. Just to be sure, send some pictures.
Sorry, Moronic reflex.
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 13, 2010 08:46 AM (R2fpr)
Her signs are everywhere, and his are few and far between.
Posted by: Iblis at October 13, 2010 08:47 AM (9221z)
Posted by: profligatewaste at October 13, 2010 08:54 AM (b3rrc)
Posted by: evil libertarian at October 13, 2010 09:19 AM (q1Tbv)
Posted by: South County at October 13, 2010 09:22 AM (Qo+dP)
Posted by: PJ at October 13, 2010 10:26 AM (GK2JE)
The Panic Of 1893, which was the biggest financial downturn in US history before the Great Depression. Several things contributed to it, including coal strikes, questionable fiscal policy by the Cleveland (D) White House, and wild speculation on Wall Street.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at October 13, 2010 11:24 AM (wDKwf)
That's FL-22, my district. CAC puts it in Firewall #2, which sounds right. West lost to Klein by 8 in '08, but since then has become a conservative rock star. He and his campaign staff are running like they're 20 points down, but they expect to win.
Posted by: Dave J. at October 13, 2010 05:39 PM (DCQ0q)
MA-2 (Tom Wesley (R.) vs. Richard Neal (D., Mass Mutual) is a lot closer than people think. I have it from a good source that Wesley's internal numbers show independents breaking for him 3-1 -- the same margin that Scott Brown carried in his race. Scott Brown won the 2nd District 57%-42%.
Just because no one is polling it doesn't mean it isn't in play.
Posted by: Red in MA-2 at October 13, 2010 06:51 PM (KCzjP)
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Posted by: Beagle at October 13, 2010 07:13 AM (sOtz/)